Montana News

Crow Tribe calls out Sheehy; Dems keep quiet on Harris; Ads focus on borders, gender & race

Montana Democratic candidates are not anxious to ride Kamala Harris's coattails. Monica Tranel vows to make the border safer, while her opponent Ryan Zinke vows to protect girls sports from trans athletes. Tim Sheehy remains silent about insulting Montana's Crow Tribe. And Republicans accuse Jon Tester of bias against white farmers.

Duration:: 13m
Broadcast on:: 13 Sep 2024
Audio Format:: mp3

(upbeat music) Next up, campaign beat, a weekly political analysis program produced by Montana Public Radio. Campaign beat is hosted by Sally Mock and features Lee newspaper, state news bureau chief, Holly Michaels and Rob Saldine of the University of Montana's Mansfield Center and Political Science Department. Here's Sally. - Rob, the biggest political story this week was, of course, the presidential debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris, which most viewers, including many Trump supporters, believe she won. Downballah to Democratic candidates in blue states are hoping to ride the coattails of enthusiasm for Harris, but downballah candidates in red states like Montana are not jumping on the Harris bandwagon, Rob. Is that a mistake or not? - Yeah, I'll take the knot on that, Sally. You know, as much as Harris has reinvigorated Democrats, not just this week with the debate performance, but ever since she became the nominee. As much as she's done that at the national level, it doesn't really seem to be trickling down to Montana. Of course, it might help a bit in college towns and the reservations, but it seems like any upside is going to be pretty muted in Montana as a whole, and it could actually hurt having Harris as the nominee with some voters. You know, you think about a candidate with Biden's profile and background, you know, that's probably a better fit for Montana than Harris is. And notably here, Sally, it's clear that Tester doesn't seem to think that she helps him. In fact, he announced a couple of weeks ago that he wasn't going to endorse her for president, which was a little odd, I thought, just because it's awfully hard to believe that he's truly agnostic on the presidential race. You know, that said, it's also understandable and goes to the larger point here. You know, he wants to keep the focus on local issues and what he's done for the state, rather than make it about national politics, because if that's all this race is about, he's going to lose because he's wearing the wrong jersey and same with the other down ballot, folks. - Well, Holly, the Democratic candidate for the Western District House race, Monica Trinnell, she six points behind incumbent Ryan Zinke, according to a recent poll, and she has a new TV ad on the border crisis. Here's that ad. I'm Monica Trinnell, and we have a real crisis at the border. Joe Biden is not doing enough to fix it, and Ryan Zinke is just playing politics. We need to secure the border, hire more Border Patrol agents, and go after the drug cartels to stop the flow of illegal drugs like fentanyl. I'll stand up to any Democrat or Republican who gets in the way. Keeping Montana safe is more important than politics. - Well, Holly, this seems like a case of trying to steal the opposition's thunder. - Yeah, I think this is for sure a way to do that. You know, taking an issue that Zinke's trying to make a big deal of. We've seen immigration in the Southern border rank really highest, important to Montanans in polling the cycle, and Trinnell is trying to flip the script to make this an issue that's winning for her. I think this has also moved by Trinnell to do the thing that Democrats running for federal office need to do in Montana to get elected, and that's showing some strong examples of where they would part from their party's approach nationally to an issue. Yeah, it's been a model that's been successful for John Tester, especially when it comes to the border. You were seeing similar messaging from him on the same issue, the cycle too. And you're looking at this ad, it's critical of Joe Biden. We know from polling, and then of course, the 2020 election that Biden is not popular in Montana. So that's something Trinnell is working hard to point out here that she's not in line with him. I think it's interesting to know that you and Rob are just talking about Harris, and this ad, it's not Trinnell saying it's the Biden-Harris administration she's frustrated with, she's just referencing Biden. You haven't seen Trinnell come out and endorse Harris, but there is a video that Forbes posted where she's saying that Harris on the ballot really doesn't mean much to her. She's more focused on running on her own merits. You know, Roelis is a pretty interesting ad, though I do wonder how many people it reaches. You're just trying to cut through all the noise of that Senate race. And that's a lot of noise to cut through. Rob Ryan Zinke also has a new ad out opposing the Biden administration's proposed change to Title IX to include gender identity protection. And here's that ad. Like me, my boys played football. My daughter, she shows gymnastics. They all were tired, but boys are boys, and girls are girls. It's just common sense, but radical, Mozilla liberal Monica Trinnell and her left-wing sidekicks in DC want to feel your daughter's opportunity. I'm Ryan Zinke, and I approve this message because girls deserve a level plate. Well, Rob, this ad ran first, I think, during the Olympics, and I doubt that was a coincidence. Yeah, that's probably right, Sally. You know, this is a good issue for Zinke. This culture war stuff works really well politically for Republicans in Montana. And this, I think, comes off as a well-constructed ad. The point, at least broadly speaking, not necessarily tied to the specific Biden administration proposal, but the larger point is crystal clear. And it avoids coming off as mean-spirited. You know, if you look at polling on transgender issues, the American public has nuanced views on this stuff. American society is definitely more accepting of trans people than perhaps it once was. And strong majorities are very clear that they oppose discrimination towards trans people. But, you know, when you drill down on some of the specifics, like medical care for kids who want to transition, there's a lot of skepticism and a lot of outright opposition there. You know, same thing when it comes to girls' sports. That's really not popular among the American public, even if it does sometimes seem to enjoy strong support in elite cultural circles in a lot of our institutions and so forth. And in fact, if anything, over the last several years, Sally, public opinion actually seems to be becoming more opposed to some of those things. And as you note, this ran during the Olympics when that issue of sports, girls' sports, is likely to resonate in ways and with more people than it might normally. So this probably works quite well for Zinke. And it allows him to also call Tranelle or radical liberal and tire to unpopular national Democrats and for good measure to remind everyone that he played football and the cheese from Missoula. -Holly, we spoke last week about a racist comment Senate candidate Tim Sheehy made about members of Montana's Crow Tribe. And several tribal leaders condemned the remarks, but we had not heard from Crow leadership until this week when Crow Chairman Frank White Clay released a letter saying Sheehy's remarks are, quote, unacceptable. -Yeah, it took some time. And I think a lot of us were waiting to hear what White Clay had to say. We heard from the Rocky Mountain Tribal Leadership Council, but we didn't hear from him like you said until this week. You know, in this letter, White Clay said Sheehy's comments were disparaging a highly unprofessional, deeply troubling and unacceptable. And he also said that this show, a discriminatory and racially prejudiced believe toward all Native Americans. We talked about this last week, too, and it's still holding true this week that Sheehy and his campaign have not responded either to the tribes, the Rocky Mountain Leadership Council's request for an apology or anything else that they've wanted to engage with them on. He's also not really responded to media questions. A spokesperson gave one comment to the Associated Press, but otherwise we haven't really heard anything. Another thing White Clay got into in his letter is addressing a claim that Sheehy made in this audio where he made this racist remark, where he says that his ranching partner, Turk Stovall, is Crow and that they run cattle on the reservation. But White Clay said that Stovall is actually not an enrolled tribal member and that Sheehy does not lease any land on the reservation. And he went on to say that Sheehy disrespected the history and culture of his nation, these perpetuating harmful stereotypes, but he did stop sort of demanding an apology. And worth pointing out here, White Clay is in a bit of a different situation than other tribal leaders in the state who've weighed in. He comes from a tribe in the past that has endorsed Republicans. The economy and Crow country is deeply tied to coal. An SR reporter, Nora Maby, who covered the story pointed out, past chairs have endorsed Republicans and is recently his last month, White Clay Road next to Governor Gragie and Fort Hager and Crow Fair. So Heehy's campaign is sort of not engaging, hoping the story will fizzle out. Think Democrats and testers campaign are hoping it's got some sticking power. You know, looking at the one we talked about last week showing testers trailing Sheehy, I think they're hoping this will move the needle a little bit. - Well, Rob, as Holly just pointed out, Sheehy has not responded to the criticism much less apologized. And is he, do you think calculating, he just doesn't want to give the issue more oxygen? - Yeah, I think so. He's probably waiting for it to fizzle and go away. We talked about this a little last week. He in some ways, I think, can't apologize because Trump says you aren't supposed to do that. So that's immediately taken off the table as a potential response. And then the other thing going on though more broadly is that he is just a very protected candidate in the sense that he doesn't do many interviews. He doesn't make a lot of statements. He just doesn't say much. I suspect on the thinking that there's more potential for screwing it up and doing some harm than there is for actually getting some benefit out of it. So he seems content to just run with the R next to his name and let his campaign ads do the talking for him. And I think on this issue, he's just hoping that it's going to go away here in the next week or two. And he's probably right about that. - Well, speaking of race, an influential PAC called the Senate Leadership Fund has a new add-out attacking Senator Tester for of all things supporting bias against, quote, "white farmers." And here's that ad. - Good out of the farm office for a little help and you find out you don't qualify, you're just (beep) out of luck. - We couldn't get help just because we're white. - It's the left and the liberals that are right and all this stuff into the farm program. John Tester voted for this Wolk program. - They excluded white farmers. - Tester voted for it. - He's going along with the liberal agenda. - He just don't care about Montanans anymore. He's too damn liberal. - He's been there long enough. We need a change. - He's just not one of us anymore. - Holly, explain what this ad is referencing 'cause I think it's not clear from the ad. - This all stems from part of the COVID-19 stimulus, the American Rescue Plan Act from the Biden administration, which there's a provision in it that aimed to provide loan forgiveness to socially disadvantaged farmers who are black, native, Hispanic, Alaska native, Asian American or Pacific Islander. White farmers sued over that claiming racial bias. The lawsuit actually led to blocking the program so it didn't take effect. And then when the Biden administration signed the inflation reduction act, that lawsuit was dropped after both sides agreed to do so. And that's because the Inflation Reduction Act included a program for distressed borrowers, which covers a large range of people and doesn't have the same racial limitations. Through this whole process, black farmers appointed out the long history of racism and federal aid and that a program like this would have been just a minor step in addressing generational racism. And of course, worth pointing out there are plenty of A programs that benefit all farmers, including white ones. But this is one of those ads and this is pretty common to say something like "Tester voted for this policy" when it's a vote on a much larger act, in this case, massive COVID-19 relief that included this underlying policy. But it's election season and that's how we see these things portrayed. And then this ad is also going at, really, I think the meat of the attacks against tests for the cycle, both from outside groups like the Senate Leadership Fund with this ad and she's campaign itself. And that's at Tester after three terms in DC. The argument is he's no longer the dirt farmer and big sandy, but instead this politician who has this ad is claiming is out of touch with Montanans. - Well, Rob, it's a reach, isn't it? To imply John Tester who's been a farmer all his life is anti-farmer. - Yeah, you know, it's a little bit of a stretch, Sally. Although I also think if you're looking for a reason to not like Tester, you know, here is something you can latch on to, that might be all it takes for some people who are looking for an excuse to explain why they aren't gonna vote for Tester. But I think the farming piece is just so tied to Tester's biography. You know, anyone who knows anything about Tester knows that. You know, I'm not sure how effective that's going to be even if, you know, the visuals on the thing are good. It looks like those people could be right out of big sandy, but it's a stretch to think that Tester is not supportive of farmers. - Well, this has been quite the week in politics. I can't wait to see what next week brings. Holly and Rob, thanks, and I'll talk to you then. - Thanks, Sally. - Thank you, Sally. (upbeat music) - You've been listening to Campaign Beat, a weekly political analysis program produced by Montana Public Radio. Campaign Beat features Rob Saldine of the University of Montana's Mansfield Center and Political Science Department, Lee Newspaper, State News Bureau Chief Holly Michaels, co-hosted by Sally Mock. Join us next week for more analysis of Montana politics. (upbeat music)