Focus on Africa

Tensions rise between Ethiopia, Egypt and Somalia

The arrival of Egyptian military planes in Somalia ratchets up tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, raising tensions in the already fragile Horn of Africa

A dam bursts in Sudan killing at dozens of people, intensifying the suffering of a country already facing the ravages of war - we ask why dams fail so often in Africa?

And doctors in Nigeria have been striking to demand the release of one of their colleagues kidnapped by bandits.

Duration:: 33m
Broadcast on:: 02 Sep 2024
Audio Format:: mp3

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So to help us, we brought in a reverse auctioneer, which is apparently a thing. Mint Mobile Unlimited, premium wireless. Give it a try at mintmobile.com/switch. Hello, I'm Audrey Brown, and today in Focus on Africa, a dam collapse in Sudan has led to dozens of deaths. So we're exploring the reasons why dams are considered to be installations containing dangerous forces under international law. The danger of dams is that they store huge quantities of water, and downstream you have lots of people who are farming, they're irrigating. Now if that dam is to breach, it is going to discharge the tsunami of water, which will literally wipe out anybody anywhere near the river. Also, as Dr. Ganyat Popola spends yet another day in captivity in Nigeria, she was abducted in December. We're asking why so many doctors are being kidnapped across the country. In the last one month, there was a case of the kidnap of the doctor in Annembra, there was a kidnap of the doctor in Akwibam, the doctor in Kogisti, and I took cases of kidnaps of doctors within Abuja, and medical intent along with some medical students in very many states, the medical professionals that are seen as soft targets also can be used as healthcare providers within the deal of kidnappers. It's Monday the 2nd of September. First we go to the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia and Somalia are at odds once again. They've been quarreling over Ethiopia, establishing a relationship with Somaliland, which would allow the landlocked country access to the sea. Somalia is not happy with that arrangement because Hargassa is a breakaway region and therefore not mandated to make international agreements. Things moved up a notch when Egyptian military planes entered the fray at the invitation of Mogadishu. The planes were delivering weapons, ammunition and military personnel to Somalia. Cairo and Addis Ababa have been at loggerheads for years, over the construction of a huge dam on the River Nile, and Ethiopia's deal for access to the sea with Somaliland goes further than just access. Addis signed a deal with the South declared Republic of Somaliland to lease a coastal area to build a naval base. Dr Hassan Kenange is the director of the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies. He's been describing the tensions between these countries in greater detail. I think the role emanates from the decision by Somalia to invite Egyptians to be part of majestic theater in terms of peacekeeping, but getting into some bilateral military arrangements and secular arrangements with Somalia, which is viewed in Addis Ababa as a threat to its interests, not just because of the dispute between Addis Ababa and Cairo over the Great Renaissance Dam, but because of all Tsarissa Ababa's desire to have freedom of action in certain parts of Somalia, which it has always had that kind of a deal. It seems like Ethiopia is involved in very major spats with its neighbors at the moment. Just tell us why it would regard Egypt as a threat, and I thought that the Renaissance Dam was an ongoing discussion rather than a constant point of friction. The Renaissance Dam, it is a vital, you know, strategic investment to Addis Ababa with regard to its ability to contribute to its fast-growing economy and be able to light up its population. But there's also another issue where Ethiopia gets concerned. Ethiopia is still a landlocked country, and its access to sea is critical to its survival. And so it sees the current maneuvers, especially from the military perspective as potentially threatening to harm its access. Remember, the cause of the tension, that's the MOU that was signed between Addis Ababa and her Gaysa, which is a breakaway region of Somalia, was in part meant to guarantee that access. Right now, most of it, you know, sea trade, you know, is still going through the port of Djibouti. They've maintained recent months, you know, they have tried to get things through the ports of Lammin, Kenya, but to the extent that the current strategic arrangements between Mogadishu and Cairo may threaten that access, both in Djibouti as well as in Somalia, of course, it's going to be interpreted as a matter of national survival and national security. So this is not just a matter of sort of diplomatic tip for tech. Somalia, in a way, punishing or warning Ethiopia about its connection with Somaliland by inviting Egypt in? There was a statement from Mogadishu saying that, well, that at Sababa is harvested where they saw, and I think that was in reference to the kind of agreements that they signed with the breakaway region, which still Mogadishu's keen not to have Somalia and recognize doesn't depend on entity. And so, yeah, in a way, it is a punishment, but also in a way, I think, because Somalia's own naval forces, as well as military, do not have the capacity to man their own waters and guarantee their own security. So it's also, I think, from Mogadishu's perspective, an insurance policy against any future encroachments, you know, by either neighboring countries or foreign entities. Egypt hasn't until quite recently shown much interest in Africa further south of the Sahara. Is this a major point of them re-entering the continent in that way? Actually, Egypt has been showing increasing interest in recent years, if you pay attention and spare the countries in Horn of Africa, they've been pretty quick in trying to, you know, sign some kind of military agreements with regard to cooperation agreements, exchange of knots and stuff like that within the countries in East Africa. And this, I think, is just an expansion or rather dramatic expansion of that kind of interest, and ever since, of course, the dispute with Ethiopia started over the dam, Egypt considers denial as a critical, you know, survival asset, you know, historically, even though, of course, countries like Ethiopia and countries in eastern part of Africa think the treaty that was signed in 2959 were not exactly fair. And so this is a dramatic expansion. It is not new, but it is an ongoing trend that we have seen, not just coming from Egypt, but a number of countries in the Gulf, as well as the Middle East. Could it spill over into a regional war? Because people are warning that this is quite serious, and it's underpinned in your analysis as well. I do not think it will spill into open warfare. It may see limited to conflagrations between forces, especially, you know, Egypt moves ahead to deploy its forces in Somalia, and especially in sectors where, I think, Ethiopia or Addis have a consider to do strategic national security and national interest. But in all out, you know, war, I doubt if both parties are actually invested in trying to see that, because if that happens, Egypt also has a lot to lose with regard to the way it's perceived within the sub-Saharan Africa, if it were to more of its, you know, troops to actually start, you know, fighting with Ethiopia. Now Ethiopia right now, neither does it have the capacity to be able to take on Egypt. Egypt has a very powerful military in terms of a, you know, a full interstate conflict. And so you may see limited conflagrations across the border and/or the sectors, even fact, Egypt moves ahead and makes those deployments. And if Ethiopia, for instance, it receives their call by Somalia, you know, to withdraw from some of those sectors, remember, a chunk of Ethiopian presence in Somalia that's still not exactly under Amazon. So even beyond the expiration of Amazon term by December of this year, there's a likelihood you're still going to have a presence of Ethiopian troops inside Somalia. Are there attempts ongoing to resolve this particular spat or rouse between these three countries? Yes. There have been attempts both by, you know, regionally, as well as the individual countries in the East Africa, as well as the African Union. What is hoped for is that some of these efforts are going to bear fruit. But right now, though, in the absence of really united and consolidated efforts beyond the continent, because a number of these countries are also being supported by others, you know, elsewhere. I think it's going to be, you know, difficult. You know, we expect that both the African Union and the United Nations, as well as key actors in the world, can bring pressure to bear and also persuade the parties right now that there is a potential for escalation that is going to have catastrophic consequences for the region and for the countries involved. And so that need has to be treated with agency. If we don't move in that direction and the, you know, the different efforts working silos is going to be very difficult to reach our consensus. Djibouti's foreign minister told the BBC that it is offering one of its ports to Ethiopia to access the Red Sea, because Ethiopia desperately wants access to the Red Sea. Could this resolve the crisis? In part, that may resolve the crisis. I disavowed that, you know, I think they are keen not to become victim of tokenism. I think they want certain guarantee with regard to their access to the sea. That may help. But again, that has to be done within some kind of international arrangement, international framework, weights understood so that that offer cannot be taken off the table as a convenience of the Japan government or the Egyptian parliament. So that is going to relieve some pressure. But it may not also solve the fundamental challenges that Ethiopia has to transport, you know, its goods, you know, far-field, you know, to get to the port of Djibouti. Yeah, because that was an offer that was made before. And Ethiopia felt that it wasn't sufficient. So what do you think will happen next? What's likely to happen next here? We're still going to see some tensions. But I think there is an emerging consensus that the current escalation is not sustainable. And what we expect is we're going to perhaps, you know, start hearing more from the African Indian perspective, because you're having two countries that are important players on the continent that potentially clench the region into a conflict. And so we expect to see a lot of more robust engagement and noise coming from the African Union, as well as voice from the United Nations, you know, with regard to international security or the threat that's being caused because of these tensions. They will probably not escalate beyond manageable levels. But that escalation risk is still there. Dr. Hassan Kanenje, director of the Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies. The people of Sudan have had a civil war raging through the country for the last 16 months. They face violence, rape, and hunger, as the Sudanese army fights it out with a faction, the rapid support forces. Diplomatic interventions have yet to bear fruit. And now the people have the weather to deal with as well. Torrential rains and floods have killed dozens of them and forced tens of thousands of others from their homes. Those rains have led to a dam burst and the death toll is rising. The dam was the main source of drinking water for the coastal city of Port Sudan, where the military government is based. But Sudan is not the only country where this has happened. It happened in Libya and also in Kenya. Dams are crucial for development. They provide irrigation and electricity. They are also regarded as installations containing dangerous forces under international humanitarian law because of the danger in overflowing or damaged dam poses to civilian populations. So, let's talk about dams and dam failures with Dr. Sean Avery, an expert in African hydrology focusing on sustainable water management and environmental impact. We started with what could have caused the dam burst in Sudan. The preliminary findings I've seen reported were heavy rains and a dam breach resulting in it completely emptying. Now, that immediately suggests to me that the spillway capacity was inadequate and the dam overtopped or the spillway had structural problems collapsed and caused a breach there. I do know from research which I've done that this dam was subject to very heavy saltation. In other words, a lot of sediment accumulation within the reservoir, although the dam was built in 2003 in 2021, 70% of the dam was full of sediment. Tell me about spillway quickly. Basically, every dam is designed so that if the dam fills up and you get a flood coming into it, you have a structure which carries that floodwater safely downstream without damaging the dam itself. So that means that that structure has got to be big enough to cope with the big floods. And under normal design criteria, that would be a very severe flood, potentially the flood which occurs once in 10,000 years. I can just elaborate on that. One of the things that we are seeing in Africa is, consider what because of the human population pressures increasing, we are seeing floods actually increasing in size. Now, what that means is that you are getting much bigger floods coming into these reservoirs. And the other thing which has happened in the case of this particular reservoir is that it's like a bathtub. If that bathtub is empty when the flood comes in, it has lots of capacity to fill up before it starts to spill. But in the case of this dam, a bathtub is a 70% already full of sediment. That means you've only got 30% left to fill before it starts to spill. What it means is that in the case of this dam, the flood buffer capacity that one would normally have in a large reservoir was compromised by the fact that it was full of sediment. It's not the first time that a dam has burst on the continent. Kenya, 45 people were killed when a makeshift dam burst and then in Libya last year as well. And I'm sure there are other dams that have collapsed. Do any of these dams have anything in common as the reason for why they burst? These big dams have quite sophisticated procedures for monitoring after they're built. These monitoring procedures are designed to pick up warning signs of a problem that could lead to catastrophic failure. Now one thing that these two dams that you mentioned, whether the one in Libya and the one in Sudan have got in common. And I have actually seen the same here in Kenya, to be honest, is that they're in conflict zones. And if there's a conflict zone, then the sort of normal measures for monitoring become compromised because the people who are actually responsible for that don't have the freedom to move around these areas and they don't have the support from government. And one of the problems we have in Africa is bureaucracy. It is also a lack of capacity and also in the case of dam maintenance, often there's no budget allocated for that. So when something pops up like this, we end up in a bureaucratic model trying to get technical resources to look into it, and so on and so forth, so the whole process gets delayed. So that's maintenance and essentially governance. Is there also an element of intentional sabotage in some dams collapsing? Yes, it can happen, but I've never actually personally seen evidence of that. I mean, these are major structures and it would be quite difficult to do. Certainly, in my experience here in Kenya, structures like this are quite heavily guarded. Now a lot of the dams and the damage to dams, we've been talking about rainfall and given that climate change is happening and El Nino is a major player in the way in which the climate is shifting, I'm just wondering whether we're going to see more dam collapses because of that. Climate change is a fact and it does mean that rainfall patterns are changing. But actually, if you look at the rainfall records, the amount of rainfall has not changed that dramatically. And I feel that the biggest issue from a hydrological point of view is that the amount of water that's running off these days from a unit of rainfall is much higher than it was 40 years ago. And that's not because of climate change, that's because of the degradation of catchments. Those in Africa are sources of water and people tend to gravitate towards those rivers. Now we have got laws in Kenya that forbid any cultivation within the river banks or the riparian zone of a river, but that legislation is not enforced. And as a result of that, you're losing the sort of buffer zone that actually smooths out floods as the water runs off the catchment and into the river. And those buffer zones also hold back the sediment. So what the big factor I have seen throughout Africa, and I've been doing this for 40 years, is catchment degradation is the big factor that we've got to factor in. So catchment degradation, just to be clear, tell us again what it is in the language that we can understand. Okay, well catchment degradation in an extreme case would be where we've chopped down the entire forest cover in a catchment. And the catchment is around the river along the banks and so on. Yes it is. If you imagine a river flowing into a dam, that river is draining an area of land which we call the catchment. And that river has a network of tributaries which actually collect the water from the catchment. If you want to actually control floods, you want that land surface to be well covered with vegetation which binds the soils and slows down rainfalls instead of disappearing into the nearest river, it soaks into the ground. And unfortunately with land degradation, that's not happening. Dams are considered installations containing dangerous forces under international humanitarian law. Just explain to us why that is the case. The danger with dams is that they store huge quantities of water. And downstream on the water courses, you have lots of people who are farming, they're irrigating. Now if that dam is to breach, it is going to discharge catastrophic like a tsunami of water downstream which will literally wipe out anybody anywhere near the river. Dams they have a huge risk factor and as a result of that, there are very few people in the world or companies in the world who are qualified to design and supervise construction of dams like this because when they fail, it is catastrophic and it's all the way downstream. Dr Sean Avery, an expert in hydrology and sustainable water management. This is Focus in Africa from the BBC World Service. Deep in the ocean, an orca pod is on the hunt. These aren't your average orcas. These guys are organized. Marketing team, did you get those social media posts scheduled for the CO migration? Hi, I captain. We even have an automated notification for all pod managers when they go live. They use Monday.com to keep their teamwork sharp, their communication clear and their goals in sight, Monday.com, or whatever you run, even orcas, go to Monday.com to dive deeper. Explaining football to the friend who's just there for the nachos, hard. Tailgating from home like a pro with snacks and drinks everyone will love, any easy win. And with Instacart helping deliver the snack time MVPs to your door, you're ready for the game in as fast as 30 minutes. So you never miss a play or lose your seat on the couch or have to go head to head for the last chicken wing. Shop game day faves on Instacart and enjoy $0 delivery fees on your first three gross reorders. Offer valid for a limited time, other fees in terms apply. Now, imagine being a doctor, tasked with saving lives, but fearing for your own, not being able to practice in peace, fearing that a band of kidnappers will take you and hold you ransom. That day came last December for Dr. Ganyat Popola, an ophthalmologist and mother of five, who was kidnapped late last year, along with her husband and her nephew in Nigeria. Dr. Popola's husband was released in March after her ransom was paid, but both her and her nephew still remain in captivity. Growing numbers of doctors are so fearful in Nigeria, it's one of the main reasons they cite for wanting to leave the country. Doctors in public hospitals have just ended a nationwide strike to demand the release of their colleague. The president of the Nigerian Doctors Association, Dr. Dele Abdulayi, has been telling me more about this particular kidnapping and the reasons behind the spike in numbers in recent months. Thank you very much for the opportunity. The kidnapped was actually recent. She was kidnapped on the 27th of December, 20th century. She was picked from a home which is within the hospital facility where she works. That's the National High Center in Cardona State, the northwest region of Nigeria. She was picked along with her husband and the nephew of the husband, but after some forms of negotiations, the husband has been released, but she and the nephew have been in consideration for eight months. We'll be able to talk to her, but the bandits, the kidnappers are still making fresh demands which has been difficult to be made by the family. So have the family been paying ransom and they have yet to release her? Yes, the family has paid something before. Remember I told you that the husband and the nephew of the husband were picked along with her. So something was actually paid as a dark sign for which the kidnappers released just the husband and insisted on law if he wants her and the nephew released. So correctly, the negotiation is there, although the security agencies in Nigeria have promised that they're working to see if we are hard to be rescued. Right, so she's been in captivity along with her nephew since December. It's eight months, more than eight months now. Was this attack, do you think, random or was it targeted at her for professional or personal reasons? We do not really have the data to corroborate specific attack based on professional reasons, but we will feel strongly that the attack was targeted at us specifically, because there are so many way houses within the same region, but only a house was attacked. She won't speak a lot with the husband and nephew and the left, the left, the sea, all scattered. So we feel the informants actually pointed out out specifically and that the attack was actually aimed at her, but we cannot stay to a right for professional reasons or maybe because they needed something else. And I believe that doctors and medical professionals in Nigeria are being targeted more and more. In fact, it cited as one of the main reasons why Nigerian medical professionals are leaving the country. Tell us a little bit more about that. How many people do you know that have been affected by this? We are beginning to see an increase in the target of medical professionals in Nigeria. Prior to this time, from 20th to 20th to 23rd, to talk about the kid-up case that we had reported was BLE-2O between December 23rd to 3rd until date, the numbers grown to 32. We've had an increase in the total number of people that are kidnapped, with some even being kidnapped recurrently. In the last one month, there was the case of the kid-up of the doctorate and number, there was the case of the kid-up of the doctor in Akwibam, there was the case of the kid-up of the doctor in Kogistik. There were two cases of the kid-ups of doctors within Abuja, and they were still also the kid-up of the medical intent allowed with some medical students and being wasted. It has actually been a crazy astronomical, as only a few things we are actually screaming out for. Yes, this ideology was by the medical professionals are saying a soft target for which they can easily get around some and get extra ease from them. Also, for some based on reports after they were released, they are being used as healthcare providers within the kid-up case. Right. I was wondering why there would have been this spike in the kidnapping of medical professionals around the country, because at first I thought it might just have been in the North, but from what you're saying, it's not just the North. So do you think that it's because bandits need medical attention, and if they go to health facilities, they may draw attention to themselves, and at the same time, they see it as an opportunity to make money out of people whom they think will have money to pay their answers? I would agree with you, because we've had reports of medical professionals being kidnapped to go around medical services. That is already fact that they've been established, and yes, we've seen a soft target that will bring in money to them, so all of these are actually put into place, and it's not just the North. It's kind of a way, all across the country. The only reason why it's really worrisome right now is, in a place where we have tried to collaborate, it's becoming very difficult for healthcare workers to go to the rural areas because of the fear of the insecurity in those places. Is it particularly acute in rural areas? Medical professionals are more vulnerable to kidnap there. The current statistics don't actually support that, but the distribution of security and the effect of security, if you look at it, generally, you can already see the attack as specifically the rural regions, it's caught across both of the rural regions right now. And I imagine that you must be feeling particularly vulnerable, do doctors now have to take special measures to try and protect themselves? We currently are trying to return ourselves on how to become security conscious, and when I was a kid now, I'm all the insecurity that just came, but putting a lot of other measures in place, I was developing a protocol on what should be done in the case of a kidnap or in need a kidnap to us to create a room for proper protection of all healthcare workers across the country. How does it make you feel that you could be a target for kidnap? Well, if you feel for October, living with those healthcare workers in Nigeria every year right now, it actually affects the dedication to the work, it affects the mental and the sky health of most Nigerian healthcare workers, and what do I mean, the fear of being a target every day, or even hearing about your members being targeted, tends to drop your spirit as much as possible, and there is one of the few reasons why none of the people want to get out of the country and seek even with the assure of security to your logic still. So it's driving people wanting to leave the country and leave the profession perhaps as well? Yes. You can imagine working at the department when you were a colleague of yours, I was being a kid in captivity for eight months, but the rest of it, I in that department, the only thing I'm thinking about is those do what you can do and what's your opportunity you want to leave the particular vicinity, so I can go and get the elsewhere. At the stand right now, the house, which was the output of advertisement for employment, because of the security within the state, also brought a lot to go there. You have people trying to crowd over places where they are sure of security, and that is the very powerful truth of the distribution of healthcare workers currently. Let's talk about the ongoing doctor's strike, tell us a little bit about how it's going. Well, the only strike was instituted on 2060, but that midnight 26th, the aim of the strike is to raise awareness out to with the government into place, so that's the computer, constitutional duty and help us secure the release of the popular dentists. That is why more demand is a single demand activity right now, and what we are calling for is that the popular dentists should be released or continually as possible. So you basically want the government to go in and find out and bring out, is that what you're saying? Exactly, that is all we are asking for. We started, like I said, on the midnight 26th, and it's a similar one and strike a shoot, and in old Sunday, we're worried about new activities of the government so far, and then decide on a way forward. This strike action, a painful decision that we have to reach, because initially we had follow diplomatic ways of writing the letter to the fair government, which is no response, we started increasing their engagements, no response. We commenced the set-up response as no response before we now reached this point of going on strike. We've had engagement with a lot of the government and just since we started the strike, and we are hopeful that they can't keep to their words and get out as fast as possible. That was Dr. Dele Abdulayi, the president of the Nigerian Doctors Association. Focused in Africa was put together by Bella Hassan and Alfonso Daniels here in London. Blessing Adiragwa was on the case from Lagos. Chris Ablaqua was our technical producer, Sunita Nahar, the senior journalist in charge. Andre Lombard and Alice Moudangi are our editors. I'm Audrey Brown, and we'll talk again next time. Imagine the softest sheets you've ever felt. Now imagine them getting even softer over time. That's what you'll feel with Bolin Branch's best-selling signature sheets in 100% organic cotton. In a recent customer survey, 96% replied that Bolin Branch sheets get softer with every wash. 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