FM Talk 1065 Podcasts
Dr Bill Williams Tropical Update 9-23-24 730a
let's look at the next couple of days whether and then what we're looking at forming down in the Gulf of Mexico. Yeah, right now we're looking at continuous, this pattern is going to continue with temperatures in the 90s for today and tomorrow, most likely in the lower 90s. But then in the middle of the week, things will change, mainly due to the system now developing over the northwest Caribbean. Right now it's a bunch of thunderstorms that are growing rapidly and it will be organizing into a well-defined low pressure system through the day and that's then going to move into the Gulf, into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and become eventually a hurricane and conditions are favorable for it to become a fairly strong hurricane, could become maybe even a category three. The water temperatures are very, very warm, that's given but also we don't expect much in the way of wind shear and that'll give this system a chance to grow. It most likely will begin to recur once it moves into the Gulf and that will probably take it into the Florida panhandle about Thursday. Things could change, that we're going to continue to monitor, but it looks like the target would be the panhandle anywhere well as far east maybe even as the Big Bend area in Florida. That would put us on the dry side and meaning a northerly wind and more of a dry air that would keep most of the rainfall to the east of us. But as I mentioned that could change, this storm is just getting organized and the models will tend to pick up now the information once it has a good well-defined center and will have some better information on it. But the early indications are a recurve or towards the Florida panhandle that would be obviously east of our area. I'm guessing we'll get more info today as it read something that they were and how many air force flights and how many NOAA flights but it was several that they were sending in today I think to look at this. Yeah, they'll be flying in and out of that thing quite a few times over the next few days and since they do fly out of a keisler this is right in the backyard here. So they'll be checking it out and we'll get a lot of information on it. You talked earlier as well about the strength of this storm possibly and Dan mentioned that he washed my face when he said he got my attention. You think this could be as strong as what? It's possible that the conditions of where they are that it could reach the category three which we put it into the major storm and it will track through the Yucatan channel between Cuba and the Yucatan peninsula possibly the center of it could touch the northeastern portion of Yucatan and that sort of will begin to recurve and we're hopeful here that that recurve will develop and you keep that storm to the east of us. So that yellow look at it I guess all being meteorologist people do this is something that is boxing it in from east and west right that's that guiding it to that area you're talking about. Is that high pressure, low pressure, what do y'all watch just like in civilian terms? What do you want to determine where you think it's going? This weekend we had a high pressure system across the southeastern states and gave us that some protection of course from any tropical systems during that period but it's beginning to weaken and drift to the east and low pressure area across the country is moving on the end through the center of the nation and that's going to help provide a corridor for that storm. All of these hurricanes want to recurve they want to turn northward and that's due to the rotation of the earth so if they can find a corridor and then they will move in that direction that right now would indicate that it would recurve toward the Florida Panhandle. When a better line on all this doc I understand what you're talking about Thursday landfalls for this as it looks right now. When we have a better idea of where we'll hit land and the timing and all that when will that information be available? You know it's going to be a thing hour by hour as we get more information but certainly this afternoon we'll have a better fix on the center of the system and the models will really start picking this up and they give us a better idea what's going to take place over the next few days but it looks good for today and tomorrow and then we'll start to see a rapid increase in moisture on Wednesday so that some showers and thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon and then Thursday would be the likely time at which this storm would make landfall perhaps as late as Thursday night and then of course it'll move through the Panhandle Thursday night into Friday morning but hopefully we'll stay on the western side of it. And is this would this be even out in the water is this going to be a fast moving storm? Yeah I don't expect this to be like Hurricane Sally a few years ago that made landfall and then move at two miles per hour. This one most likely would have a little more of a normal speed perhaps you know 10, 12 miles per hour maybe more and the faster the better to get it on through. All right Doc thanks a bunch and we will talk again in the morning. Okay Dan. All right there's our staff meteorologist Dr. Bill Williams I'm probably going to get him to come on with me during midday mobile today as well and we'll give you those updates as new information comes in. He's a tropical weather expert for decades of forecasting and we are lucky to have him as part of our staff.