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When will the General Election happen?
The Sun's Adam Higgins joins Joe to discuss the Dáil's return and the likeliness of a General Election in the near future.
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- Broadcast on:
- 19 Sep 2024
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- other
"Your views, your news, your limerick today with Jonet on live 95" The doll has returned, and I'm sure a lot of you are wondering what issue is going to be on the top of the agenda, but more importantly, will we have a general election shortly? Well I'm joined now by Adam Higgins, who writes on politics for the Irish son and son dot i-e. Good morning to you Adam, how are you? Good morning Joe. So the doll is back, they're all milling around, there's a lot of chat going on in the corridors. Do we have a sense now if all the political pundits, certainly the majority of them who were saying we will have a November election, will they be proved right? Well I think looking at the front page of the Irish Times today and Paul Simon Harris will be wants to go towards that November date, because his Finagail and his own personal approval ratings are true, he's at 55% or 16% or 17% on May, I think was the last time this poll was done, and Finagail out there 27% way out in the lead as the number one party in the country, so all of his politicians in Finagail, not only in Finagail but also Fina Fall and the other parties had been banging on his door, telling them in recent weeks let's go to the people, let's go to the people, let's go now, and he had been saying no we're going to go full term, we're going to go full term, and I would be shocked now if we don't go in November, I'd imagine in and around the second week of November, because there is a little bit of work that has to be done post budget in order to get all the budget measures through the houses of the Iraq, the finance bill. Can you just explain then why in the scheduling that has been laid out, it doesn't look like they will go early, the various committees that the budget has to go to after the budget date that we all hear and see, what's called guillotine is what they call it isn't it where they they caught us, and there's a way of doing that in essence rush the important bits of the budget through the doll so they can call the election from it November. Yeah, just so for your listeners when the budget goes before the house of the rock this and when we all find out all the details of it on October 4, the process after that then is that piece of legislation called the finance bill and also the social welfare bill have to go through the house of the rock this that involves them going before the doll then going to committee stages so the various teeties on the different committees can pick them apart and propose alternatives all this sort of stuff and then they go through the Shannon and become lost so that all those measures that the government are going to announce on October 4 come into action and the government has a very strong working majority already in both houses so there's no no worry that it wouldn't actually make it through those houses with the majority that they have at the moment but that sort of situation can drag out and the schedule drags out into the first week of November which means that it would really be the second week of November or the toward week in November or even into the new year before the t-shirt could actually go to the people now speaking off the record all the politicians will tell you that the government can force through and pass that finance bill and the social welfare bill as quickly as they want because of measures like things called the guillotine which is when they don't give a huge amount of time to the committees in order to debate these things and they just got to rush them through the house and we've seen that happen a couple of times over this government so they're well used to it and they know that it can be done and in our likeness I'd imagine that's where we're heading I would imagine that we're looking at the budget coming in October and then the finance bill of social welfare bill being passed relatively quickly and probably in around the second week of November people will go to the polls now the t-shirt himself has repeatedly said that no we're going full term he's taking it into the new year he's been a bit unequivocal on his language recently so he originally just kept saying full term full term which would technically bring you up to match 2020 next year match of next year 2025 but recently he's been talking he kind of refused to give reporters who've asked the questions and wanted his definition of full term is and all this sort of stuff so I think he's given himself a little bit of wiggle room there in the language he says when he talks about full term but really look everybody expects this to go with November even walking around lens the house all the politicians have their posters ready the final conventions and all the different parties is almost complete and I think that everything is blowing it up for an election this sort of Christmas right because the t-shirt as leader of finigale has to consider a couple of things first of all half his outgoing tds are not standing and they always say that if you're in the seat it's easier to hold the seat secondly you have some interesting things happening with the doll arithmetic and there are more tds being returned overall thirdly every a general election involves multiple elections on the ground as we well know in the two limerick constituencies and fourthly just because national opinion polls are telling Simon Harris what he may want to hear over the last few months they generally aren't born out when you have all those local contests which is what a general election is a hundred percent and these opinion polls are a snapshot in time of where the public's opinion is that on any given week and I think one thing that's always important and it never really makes the headlines in these polls so it doesn't really get talked about too much is that twenty percent of the people in the in the poll that we're talking about today have are undecided so that's one fifth of the country that have no idea where they where they want to put their vote and when you consider the gap between say fina gale and shin feyn in second place is seven percent there's twenty percent there to play for and that's what they'll all be fighting for it imagine as well as long as with the people who are you know maybe swing from party to party depending on their proposals and everything else that I pull forward and as regards fina gale and that the met the huge number of politicians in fina gale who've decided they're not going to run again damey in english in me being the latest one who have said he's not going to run again at the next general election there's kind of two schools that are not yes incumbency is those favor the t d so I mean if you've already spent years you know fighting for people in that area of course you're going to have one for some more votes and all that sort of stuff but also fina gale has gone through a bit of has a new look now with Simon Harris at the head of it before this you know we were looking at Leo Vraker, Simon Covney and maybe there was the public were growing tired of that and they had their own opinions about the leadership of the country and all this sort of stuff. Simon Harris now has a legitimate argument that he can make to the people that fina gale will be an entirely new look party under me because a lot of the politicians or a good number of the politicians that are in the doll at the moment for fina gale won't be running again and some of those are big names that have been around the doll for a long time. Yeah. So when you're 37 as the t-shirt is you probably think oh sure I love loads of opportunities to be t-shirt in the future. It doesn't always work out that way. So if he goes in November it could be the last time he sees the inside of the t-shirt's office unlikely but not impossible. No not impossible Zaland yeah like I mean when it's something that me how Matt makes a point of saying whenever anybody asks him about his take on an opinion polls where the fina fauna up or down he always makes this point that campaign campaigns can change the results all the time so campaigns take a election campaigns take a kind of life of their own and that's something that I think is born true when you look back through just the recent elections we've had this year and back in 2020 as well that campaigns what happens during the weeks of an election campaign really matter and it can change people's opinions and those opinion polls will change so I think that'll be one thing to watch I don't think anyone is kind of saying okay you know it's a done deal this is who's going to be in government next time well the polls at the moment would bear out and not a return of fina fafina gala whoever else wants to dance with them other than the green party I'd imagine all of the parties would be you know aware that an election campaign can change things. We're trying to Adam Higgins who writes some politics for the Irish Sun and the Sun.ie Damien's been in touch on 0861239595 state not a hope of an election in November we don't want that before Christmas as Damien well I suppose Damien that does mean that if they are gonna call one they're gonna call one mid November ie that the date of the election itself would be mid November because I think you're right any later than that and then they'll be fighting with Christmas carolers on the doors which they definitely want one to. But Kira asked the credibility question which I think is a reasonable one so Simon Harris insists it's not happening he's going to go full term and then he does a switch a rule and calls it early and Kira says he doesn't strike me as someone who says one thing and does another. Yeah and I think look that's something that has been raised recently about politicians and you know after record I tell you well maybe it's going to go to February because he's been so hard and that it's going to full term. But again if you look at the wording he's very precise with his wording when he speaks to the media about this he never actually said we're going to have an election in 2025. He was blatantly asked several times at the doorstep recently it's gonna be this year next year and his answers were going to go full term. So then you look at the definition of what is full term. All the way into March 2025 is how the maximum it can go but if he gets the budget over line and he gets a couple of the key pieces of legislation that they've been banging on about but that they need to get true before an election if they get them all done then the argument is that we've done the work and then we need to go to the people and that's full term. So I think he's very careful with the language he uses when he's asked that question. Okay let's assume then that the election will be in mid November for the purposes of the next question I'm going to ask which is the budget on the first of October. Will the government as a result pony up the redis? Well I think they're gonna pony up the redis regardless of whether the election is going to be in November or February because we have the money at the moment and that's the thing and you mean you look at this 14 billion from Apple and I know this won't be in the budget but the future is already indicating that he might lay out his plan for where the money could be spent next year after the budget. So between that the treatment billion we've got from AIB which the government have said they're going to lay out a plan for that money on the budget as well and that doesn't even begin to talk about the surpluses we've had in recent years and the surpluses that are forecast for the next coming years. So regardless of whether the election is going to be in November or February I do think this is going to be a giveaway budget and the politicians and the ministers will all deny that it's an election budget but I think that's really what it's going to be called. Right so we have a new direct elected mayor here in Limerick John Morin and he's been talking over the last few weeks about his five year mayoral program which under legislation he needs to lay out and going to the government looking for money and the Apple money it appears will be spent on infrastructure things like housing. Is there a prospect for example of Limerick getting 2 or 3 billion to kickstart what John Morin wants to do? Well I have heard an argument that the Apple money could be spread out geographically that every county and decided by population could get X amount for the county councils that it would filter down that way and they could use that for housing infrastructure, water, all this sort of stuff but I think really where that money spent and how it spent will be decided by the next government. This government can lay out all the plans at once that money is not going to come into the Irish Exchequer until some point next year and at which point we will have a new government and it's that government that will decide who and where that money is spent and I think this is going to be one of the key election issues. I mean people are going to be knocking at the door and people will ask at the door to put the politicians how is your party going to spend the 14 billion? How is your party going to do this and I think that's where we're going to see this play out. So one thing that to keep an eye on in all the manifestos when they start coming out and coming months before the election is where that Apple where each party says it will spend the Apple money on how. And finally then even when we have an election people will remember that despite the fact that Covid hit in the meantime immediately after the election in February 2020 it still took months to form a government and that wasn't really Covid related. It related as much to negotiations that took an age and because we are likely to have a coalition again it's almost impossible based on the arithmetic not to. Could we go without a government for months? It depends on who's at the table and the results of the election I suppose. You're right to point out that the Covid talks took quite a while and that's when you had something like Covid really giving them a deadline that they needed to hurry up and get things sorted because things needed to be addressed when it comes to the health service and the planning for all that sort of stuff. This time around for example one thing that was also an issue that you have to remember this coalition is the fourth time Fina Falham Fina Gayle have been in coalition. I mean you can if you put the confidence and supply agreement to the side this is the fourth time that they have got into to the same team together for government. Now that is one hurdle that doesn't have to be overcome this time because they both parties have done this government that are happy with how it's run. So if the election goes the way that Fina Falham Fina Gayle come out with enough to go into government with somebody with you know a minor partner for example someone like the Greens, Labor, Social Democrats, whoever, a group of independents to make up that majority for this to make it all then they know that they can work together and so the negotiations between those two big parties would be easier. Now whether the election goes that way is another question if Shinfane come in or if there's a big swing to the left and all the smaller parties along with Shinfane make enough to make a government then I'd imagine those talks would go on for a long time because there's so many people at the table. So I mean it depends on the results how long those negotiations are going to be yet imagine. All right fascinating stuff oh just one last thing based on the body language you've seen over the last couple of years you know because you mentioned Fina Fal and Fina Gayle in coalition for the first time this time is it all hugs and kisses behind the scenes between Fina Fal and Fina Gayle TDs and Senator's these days? No I wouldn't say so no and I think part of that not being hugs and kisses behind the scenes at the moment is because they know that in the coming months and weeks they're gonna have to differentiate themselves when they're going to the door and say well we're Fina Fal we're different than Fina Gayle because of this we're Fina Gayle we're different than Fina Fal because of that and I think that's why you're kind of seeing these little rails break out in government and you see them play out sometimes in the media where it's like you know all they don't like the inheritance act they don't like this they don't like that and I think there's gonna be you're only gonna see more of that now of the coming months while they try to differentiate themselves to the to the public okay listen thanks so much for your time this morning we really appreciate it Adam Higgins who writes in politics for the Irish son and son that I am we'll certainly be talking to you again over the next few weeks budgets and it seems like based on what you're saying a general election in mid-November your views your news your limerick today with jones on live 95