The Cārvāka Podcast
Assembly Elections 2024
In this podcast, Kushal and Aadit Kapadia discuss the upcoming assembly elections. This podcast will focus on Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana.
Follow Aadit: Twitter: @ask0704
#election2024 #haryana #islamism
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- Broadcast on:
- 23 Sep 2024
- Audio Format:
- other
(upbeat music) - Namaste everyone, welcome to the Charvuk Podcast. This is Kushal Nherab. Assembly elections 2024 are finally upon us. We have four states that are going to election now. The four states being Jammu and Kashmir, the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir. Then we have Haryana, then we have Jharkhand, and then we have Maharashtra, the second biggest state of India in terms of contribution to Lok Sabha. We are going to do this in two sections. In October, we are going to talk about Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana. And in November, we will discuss Jharkhand and Maharashtra. - As always, I have Adith with me. And the first state today that we start our breakdown with is going to be Jammu and Kashmir. So Adith, welcome, and over to you. - Hello, Kushal, great to be here. The most fascinating state of them all, the first election in Jammu and Kashmir after the abrogation of Article 370 and August 5th, 2019. The first new look, Jammu and Kashmir assembly. I have to give a couple of hazards, warnings to a lot of people. Don't go by strictly by what the last time results were. They can give you an indication, but that has been a proper delimitation of seats. Ladakh is no longer a part of the union territory of Jammu and Kashmir. So those seats will not be, they'll have their own sort of elections. So we are just going to be looking at the part of Jammu and Kashmir that is going to elections, which is 114 seats, 24 seats out of those are allotted to Pakistan occupied Kashmir, which to make a point, political point, they're going to stay empty, but the elections are going to happen in the 90 seats that are happening in Jammu and Kashmir. And I think there are two seats that are going to be reserved and so forth in that. So just had to give a bit of a background of what the new look assembly is. The delimitation came into, the final delimitation report came in May 2022. And then after the 2023, the Supreme Court holds up the verdict for the abrogation and then about nine months later, the election start. And the fourth October is when the results were going to be announced, but then the results they got postponed by fourth to eighth. I think the Haryana elections also saw two or three day postponement. Hence the results they are now on eighth of October for Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir. - All right. So we'll start first with how many seats there are in the entire state of Jammu and Kashmir. We explain the strength of the assembly and then we'll take it from there. - So let me talk about some alliances and stuff like that. Like how so there are 90 seats in this assembly of Jammu and Kashmir and there are three major alliances fighting the election, but in Jammu and Kashmir, there's always another fourth independent alliance. There are, there's a bunch of independence, ex militants, current militants, future militants, they're all fighting as independence. So, but the three major alliance is one is the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, which is fighting on 56 seats. Congress in their alliance is fighting on 38 seats in the other, each like party is the Jammu and Kashmir National Panthers party, the NPP, which was Bhim Singh's party. He is, I think his son, I believe, Harsh Dev Singh is fighting, is basically in, I'm sorry, his nephew, I have misspoke and such. And then the other is the communist party of India, which is also fighting on one seat. So those are the four constituents of that. The other party is the BJP, of course, the BJP is fighting on about 62 seats. So BJP is not fighting on all the seats. The, there are various seats in the valleys where they are essentially giving a outside support. They're not saying it, but it's known in the valley which people have sort of a quasi-state support and which don't, and that's what I think their hope is to get sort of a number, become the single largest party and then get independence and form the government. The magic number for the assembly is 46, because 90 seats, right? So a little bit over a half way more. - Jammu's are getting out there. - Jammu's here, so in the Jammu region, they go, we Jammu's here more than 30, 35 seats. I engage Jammu's here, but the Jammu composition, but they'll get it. And that's what I want to talk when we talk about the seat by seat, because there's a lot of seats like in the Dodai region or the Reasi region or the Kishtawai or the Rajori region where they are say 60% Hindu, 40% Muslim or 50% Hindu, 50% Muslim. And then, so technically that's a Jammu seat, but BJP has less of a chance than probably a Jammu East, which BJP is likely to sweep, right? So Jammu's here more likely than not BJP for around 25, I think a chance is here. BJP is hoping that that number gets pushed up to 32, 33. If they get anywhere below 25, they can kiss their chances, goodbye. You need over 32, 33 seats. That because Jammu, it's a direct fight between the BJP and the Congress. So if BJP lands anywhere below 25, Congress will get some seats from Kashmir, some seats were Jammu and Congress's tally goes up to like in the high 20s. And if that happens, then national confidence and Congress will form the government. So that's the thing. And the third alliance that is fighting is the PDP, which is also fighting on 63 seats. And then now there are other parties that has Jammu and Kashmir, APNI party led by Alta Fbukhari. (speaking in foreign language) (speaking in foreign language) - Exactly. Then there is Ahmad Mipati also, but again, Shurubiniwi, and there is a Jard evens Jammu and Kashmir's people conference. And then there's also engineer Rashid, and his people, engineer Rashid won the election from Baramula Lok Sabha. He's also fighting his, some of his back people are fighting as independent candidates. So this is like the list, and it's going to be divided into three phase. The first phase of the election obviously has already happened on the 18th of September, which saw close to 60% very healthy. - There's a very high voting percentage for Kashmir. Kashmir, (speaking in foreign language) - Correct. (speaking in foreign language) But Kashmir may be a chip presentation away. I think that which is proves the point that in Kashmir, I think the Vidansabha gets more represented than the Lok Sabha. I think because they think that the Vidansabha speaks for them a little bit better, that could be starting and stuff like that. So that's the thing. - Yeah, but for the record, I still maintain Jammu should be separated. Jammu suffers a lot because of Kashmir. I honestly, I don't know. - No, no, no, you're right. - Any family, a Jammu, a theory widget family, a Therabias, blah, blah, blah. It's like, I don't give a shit, and I just, Jammu never gets represented in this entire discussion. Kashmir has hijacked the entire discussion, whether it's a discussion on the state resources, whether it's a discussion on the state of the citizens in Jammu, whether it's issues of Jammu natives, of Hindu origin also. - Correct. - Especially the Dogra community. (speaking in foreign language) And (speaking in foreign language) And eventually, a 370-day calendar could be brought time, (speaking in foreign language) - The problem with the Jammu and Kashmir is, right? And Jammu gets affected, sort of, because what they can't do in Kashmir, they end up doing in Jammu, right? So you have them sort of being governed by the same rules. Kashmir, many times Jammu has had less seats than Kashmir. This time, after the delimitation, it's a little bit sort of fairer representation to Jammu. But if there are a few seats that are sort of shared between Jammu and Kashmir, the border seats, the demographics have changed in Jammu. And what happens is that, if you have a Jammu and Kashmir National Conference and the Congress government, which gets 70 or 80% of their seats from the region of Kashmir, are they going to talk about Jammu? I was not a fan of the BJP/PDP Alliance that happened in 2014 after the last elections. But maybe that was the only way forward because PDP got the mandate in Kashmir, BJP got the mandate in Jammu. You have the state as Jammu and Kashmir. You cannot just completely ignore the voice of Jammu. But what I get is, because Kashmir gets the added sort of importance because of the security reasons, because of, you know, up to article 370, and now that has gone away. And that is why it's going to sort of... That is why it's going to sort of dominate the narrative even more. But now how it sort of relates to the new change of things remains to be seen. But if I'm just looking at the, just split by the seats or something, we are looking at at least 40 seats that Jammu has a proper influence. 38, 39 for sure, but close to 40. If you count the seats of Kishtwar, Kishtwar, Doda, all those seats, Ramban, it's at least 40 seats. So at least Jammu has a bigger stake than they did the last election. And that sort of gives me hope. - Jammu should have a bigger stake. Even in terms of population concentration, there are more people who live in Jammu than in Kashmir, whether in Kashmir, Kashmir hog all the limelight. It's beyond the Hindu Muslim issue. It's just, you know, Jammu should have more representation in the assembly. And Jammu should have way more say in the assembly of Jammu and Kashmir than actually Kashmir does. But basically what Kashmir has done over the years is the classic, I will put a bullet on the table or a gun on the table. And then I'll start my negotiation and you always have this problem. It's only when 370 is removed and when the central government actually, and I have no shame in saying that, I bought a bigger gun to the table. - Yeah, absolutely. This is that 1985 famous KPS Gill line. When he told Sheikhar Gupta and he's quoted that when he was asked about Kalistan, he said (speaks in foreign language) which was essentially what, that was the Kashmir version of what the Indian government did, let up the Kalistan. This is what the logic KPS used for Kalistan. - Yeah, and to say that there is nothing wrong in Kashmir, like I want to share this video. Now people feel like Nahi Khushal, what has that got to do? It has everything to do with the elections and I want to share this video. It's a deeply disturbing video and it's very interesting the commentary post this video. So listen to this clip. The average Kashmiri talking to a YouTuber. Now is this a representative sample of Kashmir? I don't know, this is my answer. I don't see it in any survey. I only have seen one historical movement which I'll talk about after the clip. (speaks in foreign language) (speaks in foreign language) (speaks in foreign language) - So for those who don't understand what the gentleman was saying, he was saying that in my village, there is no Mandirwal there. There is no Hindu temple. And then the person interviewing him asks him a follow-up question that so, but what if somebody makes a temple? With a very casual look on his face, he says, "We will just burn the temple." I mean, I'm a Muslim man. I'm not supposed to tolerate the temple. And this YouTuber has been going around talking to people, asking them questions, and it's been very interesting, the response of a certain section of the Muslim community, Kashmiri Muslims, who live outside Kashmir or in Kashmir. Now, one such response has been very poetic. I have to say, I mean, talk about blaming the message, shooting the messenger, this is amazing. So Yasmin Khan, and for those who don't know, Yasmin Khan says she's a journalist in Kashmir. Delhi, I was the voice. Salaam TV News, Greater Kashmir Muslim Mirror, K&B Kashmir, former station head, DPSSGR, alumni, JMIU official, okay? Look at what Yasmin Khan is saying. There is a disturbing practice happening in Kashmir where a YouTuber is approaching innocent, less educated individuals in the streets, asking them where views on sensitive topics like Mandir, Madhya, and liquor. This unethical behavior exploits their lack of understanding about the larger narrative in the country, putting our fellow Kashmiris at risk. I urge Shrinagar police to take action against such individuals and protect our community from this hazard. And look at this, huh? So this, Padaniye Koneha, Imran Khan first, Vice President PTI, Yapak Saniye Bai. Take care. Isko Suno, while I understand your concerns, public opinion cannot and should not be silenced. Freedom of expression is fundamental, right, and individuals are entitled to share their views, even if they're deserved from the mainstream narrative. Interesting, Yapak Saniye. The solution is not to ban such content, but to promote education and awareness so that people are better informed about sensitive topics. Sensoring public discourse undermines democracy and restricts healthy dialogue, which is essential for a thriving society. Let's focus on empowering our fellow Kashmiris with knowledge rather than suppressing their voices. Abi Uskar reply, you have no idea what is happening, nor do you understand the trend I'm referring to. There is a difference between public opinion and running propaganda. You do well to focus on your issues and leave Kashmir alone. And for the record, you can't teach a 90-year-old something new. - So there are two things in this that needs to be translated, right? One, that person said this is the hypocrisy of the bigotry of liberal opinions, quote, unquote, liberal opinions. The bigotry of liberals is that we have, we can form an alliance with Islamists. We can sort of have cries about what the same cries that repeated in the 1990s when the Kashmiri pundits were forced to leave Kashmir under duress, under threats. We can repeat them, but there are sensitive topics like Mandir Masjid. What the bloody hell is sensitive topic here? (speaking foreign language) There were Mondays, there were desecrated for two days. And you're saying, (speaking foreign language) Oh my God, the problem, we Kashmir, the problem is if you look at the history of Kashmir as something that just happened in the 70s, 80s, or the 40s. Wait, this is not the first exodus that the Kashmiri pundits happened. This is the seventh exodus, right? And if you want to, there is a tremendous amount of, it is that my friend Sonanda Masjid has done this wonderful history of Kashmiri pundits lecture on YouTube as well. Jackie, please watch what they've been through, right? But the problem is we, you and I, Kushal, and people like us are talking about the history because we've read this. How many people of Kashmir are allowed to read this? Are they educated in what their sort of demographics of Kashmir was, do they know about the reality of Sikandar Bushthikan or why he was known by that? Do they know the reality of what the Hindus had to suffer hundreds of years ago? And that is the difference, right? They think that Patani Kashmir is some Arabic vassal state where Islam just existed right now. And then they, you know, the sort of the Hindu state is trying to impose the Hinduness on it. And these journalists are so ill-informed and misinformed about, willfully misinformed by the way. So now they play apologists by saying things like this. - Oh, they're not willfully and villain from their Islamism enablers. They are enablers of Islamism. We should call them what they are. - I don't give a shit. - They are enablers of Islamism. Like, look at this guy. Majib, Majib, Masood Khan, Ranji, law, public policy and politics. 153, 8, 295, 8, 19, 2, Lagado, Vo YouTuberko, Kukhi, Usane, Ek Admikko interview Kia, Usane, Ek Admikko interview Kia, Jisane, Uskko, Voila, Mandiroko, Jala Dhanaje, yeah. - Nene, Jala Dhanaje, Nene, Merkud, is a mere opinion. Like, it doesn't download it. - Us Admikko, Resane, Karanaje, YouTuberko, Karanaje, Tounusko, Krasnikipu, Chabe. - And then Basharud, peer, will sit at the offered pages of New York Times and say, "Oh my God, my Kashmir and the curfew nights." Where he will not talk. And then Vishal Bharadvaje will make sad movies on what Basharud, peer, writes. - Such a beauty of it all. Talk about blaming the messenger. This is like, Aurat Rastamikahi, Ek Admikko, Aurusane Kuch Kapadeh Panathai, Usane Kuch Kapadeh Panamiramanogya. This is exactly what these people are doing when they are defending the indefensible. - Yeah, exactly. - So what happened to Kashmiri Hindus? What is happening to Jammu Hindus? If 370 was not removed, the story of Jammu would also have been faster in terms of what happened to Kashmiri Hindus? - Yeah, absolutely. - This is a reality of Kashmir, the politics of Kashmir. Engineer Rashid won the Lok Sabha from there. What are engineer Rashid's views? - Yeah. First of all-- - He's a representative sample, right? If we are talking about representative samples. - If you want to ask people of opinions of people like Kushal and I, we are all perplexed why engineer Rashid was still fighting elections. So, Usane Kuch Kapadeh Panathai, so what these guys are saying-- - What was the jail matter? - Ah-ha, what was the jail matter? Obviously, elections in the village, what was there? And, I mean, I don't understand what they're saying, but one thing is for sure, there are winds of change blowing in Kashmir. The national conference has picked up a very interesting sort of thing. Omar Abdullah gave tickets to Shias and goodgers. Typically, there was always that conflict between Shias only population in Kashmir as well. Kargil area had more Shias and stuff, but this time it seems like national conference is sort of uniting the Muslim vote based in Kashmir and trying to portray it that. And they are not fighting in alliance with PDP. So, that's the most interesting part for me. Mufthi is fighting, Mufthi and a party is fighting separately than that. - And another thing, I would like to give a shout out to Sunanda again. Sunanda shared this on her Twitter, where she says that if you can campaign like this on the Dalek, remember to say thank you to PM Mufthi, when did you ever see a campaign like this before 2019? So, basically, for the audio listener, this is Omar Abdullah on a house court or a Shikara or whatever, taking the flag of his political party going around talking to people campaigning. And it's a fact that post the removal of Article 370, a lot of things have normalized in Kashmir. People have actually started going to watch movies in Kashmir after I don't know how many years cinemas were functional in Kashmir. - Both funny story here. The reason why the Kashmiri cinemas were banned was because it was banned in like the Middle East or something, and then Middle East started cinema and Kashmir was still not starting cinema, but Saudi Arabia will call Shah Rukh Khan. So, this is the same, the mindset was similar to some mindset where in like the Northwest frontier prevents mindset. Why we were going to try and out Islamize ourselves more than the countries where Islam came first is doing. (speaks in foreign language) - It is, listen, I've always said this, you mix Islamism and third worldism, best of luck, my dear friends. Islam and third world lethal combination. Lethal combination. - It's a Molotov cocktail, no pun intended, but it is. - No, it is. And to say anything, I am a moral objectivist. I judge culture's Hindu, Muslim, all. Like nobody will accuse me either way I go at Hindus for Jati Varana, nobody else does. So, please don't tell me that there is no problem. I as a Nirishwar Vadi Hindu have a grave and actual sitting fear of Islamism because the damn thing believes I should be dead. I will always criticize Islamism. And nobody gets on, and to every single liberal, I always say this, you know, who keep and that journalist accusing the YouTuber of, of how dare shit, Yasmin Khan, the journalist. Listen, Yasmin will also not be in a position to stay in certain areas. - Unfortunately. - The reason Yasmin enjoys certain degree of freedom, and I'm going to say this with no shame at all. It's because India is majority non-Muslim and non-Islamic. Yasmin gives freedoms, Hindu, Jain, Buddhist, Sikkankivirasaya or Christians, actually, Christians with. Because if it was for the Islamists, India would be a hellhole. It would be a hellhole. I ask every Hindu liberal friend of mine to judge the majority of the Muslims in India. I'm not going to say that. I'm not going to say that. I'm not going to say that it's a hellhole. I'm not going to say that it's a hellhole. I'm not going to say that it's a hellhole. My values don't match those. - No, no, but also, Khushal, the issue. And even in Mumbai, see, in Mumbai, there are certain things that are still sort of more normal than there are people who don't know. Since the 90s, Mumbai has been 30% to 35% Muslim. - Yeah. - 30% to 35%. - Well, I mean, great. The problem is, you know, greater Mumbai status than the number becomes 20, 22 or something. But if you talk about just the Mumbai Mumbai, not the sort of the Adjani or the reclaimed area, so to speak, the OG Mumbai area. So, yeah, no, absolutely. And but we don't want to get into Mumbai because next month, Pura, who's been discussed in Mumbai. - But so, tell me, Kashmir, who has the upper chances of now, like, how is this boat share going to be like N.C., okay. PDP-toh, man, there are only PDP-toh, Khatami, you know, one of the kids are camping. - PDP-toh, man, there are only PDP-toh. - So, man, man, man, yeah, doya-chis, doya-thin seats, di-kharata, which are the bellwether for PDP. So, there are, let's talk about Kashmir first, and then I'll come to Jammu. - Yeah, right. - Tell a Kashmir cover. - So, Kashmir, man, there are the seats that went to Poland, Jismel, Subsibadeh, is Anantanag, right? Anantanag is the base of PDP. Us may be, there is, Elteja Mufti, the daughter of Mebubamufti, is fighting from Bijbe-Hara. So, Sri Kufara, Bijbe-Hara, Jous Seat Head, which is the delimited seat, that is the old sort of that Anantanag, Shango Sanantanag East, that is the old PDP base, the South Kashmir, Anantanag, the Thral region, and so forth. If Kulgarm is another region where they do relatively well, if they are not able to hold on to the base, and if even if the base are shifted, (speaking in foreign language) So, then Jammu and Kashmir National Conference is going to sweep Kashmir, and then it won't even matter how many seats Bijbe gets in Jammu, because if this is the case, NC is going to end up with 30 plus seats by itself just in Kashmir. So, then you are only looking at 15 more seats that they need from Jammu, and from the Congress tally, to get to the magic figure of 45 plus. And that is the thing. Then there are other seats in the Sri Raga Dandrabal region where, you know, you have the Aif Languru and Mahamadikbal from Chananapura. Then there is Zadibal, Edgad. These are all, JK, they are all national conference goods. And what the BJP is hoping in these areas is that PDP would cut some votes off NC, that vote gets split, and then there is a few independent folks, people from Saajalones party, engineer Rashid's party can swing a couple of seats towards them. And unfortunately, what is going to happen with these is that if the people have made up their mind, KVDP is no longer of a factor, there is a term in Indian election, which is totally ours called the Hawa. The Hawa is with NC. So if that happens, that additional 5, 6% undecided vote will completely shift to Omar Abdullah. As of now, right now, I think Omar Abdullah is firmly in front. Like I said, first the attempted uniting some of the Gujarat, some of the Shia vote has paid dividends for him. They're old, in their old sort of bastions of Gandrabal where Omar Abdullah is fighting from. Hyderabad, Kanyar, then seats like Badgam, within Badgam, Badgam, Bilwah. I think Badgam is a second seat where he's fighting, from his fighting on two seats. NC should win quite comfortably. In the Pulvama district, you have national conference fighting three seats and Congress fighting one seat of Thrall. So Congress actually should do a spring surprising Kashmir by winning a couple of seats. People forget your Congress could be at base here Kashmir. And similarly, in Kulgham, Mamutis of Tharigami, there is a chance that he'll win. And within Anantana, Congress is a chance of a couple of seats as well. So if this holds, then we are in for a sweep. And what we are about to analyze probably might not even matter in Jammu. But right now, the rumors from Kashmir is that Omar Abdullah is the default sort of leader. A lot of people were not happy about what happened in Baramolan, engineer Rashid winning. People are not fans of engineer Rashid. His sort of region is the Langate region. He was a member of Kargatha and he sort of, you know, from there became an MP. He was always seen as a, which is in the Kupwara district. He was always seen as sort of a rabble rouser. And there, in the Kupwara region also, there is the handwara in the Kupwara seats where Sadjad loan fought the last time. Sadjad loan is going to try and see again, if he gets any sort of any thing, any extra votes. But Sadjad loan is not the factor that he was in 2014. He himself thought that someone promised him that he would be the CM of Kashmir. That didn't happen and so forth. Interestingly, BJP has sent Ramadav back into Jammu and Kashmir. Ramadav was sort of there in 2014. And then he was sort of brought back to Delhi, active politics in Gaya Gogaya. So why did he go back to Kashmir and why was he sent back? I don't know. But he was also one of the brains behind the, or it is alleged behind the BJP/PDP alliance. So I don't know if he sent, assuming that BJP may get 30 seats and to sort of negotiate for the other seats. (speaking in foreign language) - Let's see. But who has the future national defense as the upper hand as of now in the elections in Kashmir? I'm only talking about Kashmir. So the engineer Rashid or PDP Kha-Kha-Kha-chansani Lagra. - They are a factor in at most 10 seats combined. But the engineer Rashid Khithin Chashid and PDP is about six, seven seats. But they have to, to be for them to be a factor more than 10 seats is what Chasad's it may say, if they win four seats, if PDP wins the four seats, they will get sort of the cascading vote. Now there is, the second phase is, I'm looking at the day, it's 23rd. So we campaign the Kha-Kha-mogia. So the second phase is in essentially 24 hours, or 24, yeah, a little bit of what 36 hours is when the voting will start. So the campaigning is done in Kashmir essentially. Now, in the last phase, it's primarily Jammu region that will go towards, there is a few seats in Kashmir. So Jad alone, while you see it, I think 15 seats that are in the third phase, but most of Kashmir would have voted by day after tomorrow. - Fair enough. Now let's talk about Jammu. Jammu, obviously BJP-IG majority number of seats - Correct, correct, correct. - I mean, it's the actual thing, we know what's gonna happen. - Jammu, but I understand Chiswah is, but, so Jammu, (speaking in foreign language) who was with the BJP. (speaking in foreign language) (laughing) (speaking in foreign language) - Nadaji, welcome Shri Ankur Sharma to BJP. The BJP on Sunday got a boost after the Akam Snathan Bharat Dal National President, Shri Ankur Sharma joined the party, and was welcomed into the party called by BJP national president, Shri Nada. BJP working president, Shri Shath Sharma and other BJP leaders were also present. While speaking on the occasion, Shri Nadaji said, joining of Shri Ankur Sharma in BJP is in the interest of Jammu and Kashmir. It will also strengthen BJP, which is committed to welfare, development, and peace in Jammu and Kashmir. Hi, hi, hi, hi, hi, hi, hi, hi, hi. Hi, ladies and gentlemen. Yeah, the Hindu warrior has joined the BJP, (speaking in foreign language) (speaking in foreign language) (speaking in foreign language) (laughing) (speaking in foreign language) (laughing) (speaking in foreign language) For the, we are with BJP, but we will vote against BJP movement. Yes, we are with BJP. We will vote against BJP, (speaking in foreign language) (laughing) So, but Jammu, BJP has not covered itself in very much glory though, because Jammu has never covered itself in glory. No, no, no, no, the funniest thing happened, which I don't know if our viewers, listeners know this, they came out with a list of people, their first list, and then there was so much protest, (speaking in foreign language) And then the funniest thing is, (speaking in foreign language) But BJP could watch WhatsApp channels, (speaking in foreign language) to go order had not gone to state party representatives, so they were all, they had all called this a master stroke, and everybody, what a great list, (speaking in foreign language) list with doctor, they had deleted your tweets. So, you had all the tweets deleted, and the reason why this happened was, because the original Jammu Carter of the BJP was pissed off, that some Congress folks had been given tickets. Now, a couple of those Congress folks were actually legit good faces, and the reason why they were given tickets is, they were not going to stand with national conference, they go people forget, even currency and his sons, whatever party they are in, because currency and sons have changed more parties than most people even remember. - Yes. - They will talk about dough guys. (speaking in foreign language) (speaking in foreign language) (speaking in foreign language) (speaking in foreign language) (speaking in foreign language) (speaking in foreign language) (speaking in foreign language) (speaking in foreign language) (speaking in foreign language) from one party to the other, right? (speaking in foreign language) (laughing) Even I was very proud if myself was coming up with that. But having said that, I think what is interesting is, in Jammu, there are these areas where there are, and I'm going to go like a seat by seat. So pardon me, I'm referring to those, like Jammu North, Jammu East, Nagarota, where Jitinder Singh's brother, Devinder Sinara, who was with NC, has joined the BJP in the last few years in Samba, Ramgurd, Hiranagar, BJP is going to sweep these seats, right? They are going to, these are seats where non- BJP folks will not work. Now, there is another seat which they would have won, which is the Basali seat, where it was Lal Singh, Chaudhuri Lal Singh's seat. But he, after the infamous Katua case, there were, you know, lots of allegations and issues, and then he got frustrated with the BJP logo leadership, and then post that effects kebad, he could BJP and join the Congress. So he's fighting that on a Congress seat. Now, why he joined the Congress? I don't know the exact reason, but there are a bunch of reasons. But he might win that seat, and that will have a cascading effect in a couple of other seats in that area, in the Bilavar, in the Bani region, in the Katua district itself. But having said that BJP is doing pretty well in the, you know, where their president, when the arena is fighting from Naushira in the Rajari district. But if you look at these districts closely, right, in Rajari districts, there are two seats, like Bodhal and Thana Mandi. They are Muslim-dominated seats. Then within Pooch district, you have the, we just technically in Jammu, but you have Pooch Haveli, Mandar, Suran court, where BJP does not have much of a chance. So these are all Jammu seats, where BJP has less of a chance as that. Now in same thing with Uthampur, I don't think Uthampur may, there are sort of distributions. I don't think BJP is likely to win all four seats, even though they won the Lok Sabha, they are more likely to win two or three seats. Then you go to the Rayasi region, where the Vashnava Devi temple is, where there is a huge fight on the Shri Mata Vashnava Devi seat, which goes to polls tomorrow, between the Congress, Bhukindra, Jambal and Baldev, Raj Sharma. And then you have the Gulab Ghud said in Riasi, where BJP has essentially no chance, because I think it's a straight fight between the national conference and Jammu Kashmir. I'm sorry, Jammu Kashmir PDP, Mebubam of this party. So within that, and then you go on to the 50/50 belt, and Amrit Shah and Narendra Modi have campaigned massive, Amrit Shah especially went there. So there are the seats in the Douda, Kishtavaar belt, where the demographic changes do matter. So you have Douda and Douda West, and how is that going to go? In some seats of those regions, Jammu and Kashmir National Conference has a nominee, and Congress also has a nominee. How that works, I don't know, if they are fighting as an alliance, and one of them will withdraw, or one of them will continue to stay, no one knows. There are also some independence, which BJP is hoping will take away some of their votes, and get that. But bottom line is the first areas that I talked about in the Jammu, Udampur, Samba, Rajori districts is BJP's strong point. The Douda region, BJP could win, couldn't win, but the key to BJP's success is knowing how the Muslim vote in Jammu and Kashmir will vote. If the Muslim vote goes sort of 90% towards Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, and the Hindu vote split 70, 30, Congress is going to win this region. If the Hindu vote sort of a Muslim vote split 60, 40, and the Hindu vote goes 80, 20, or 90, 10 in favor of the BJP like it had in 2014 or before, then BJP is likely to cause a huge splash and get at least 25 plus seats. So the difference between BJP getting 20 to 25, and 30 to 35 is that percentage. How much percent of Hindu vote they'll get, and how much percent of Muslim vote will split. Time will tell. No, let's go to Haryana. - Haryana is a most fascinating state of them all. - Yeah, believe me, Haryana Ali is far quite clear. - So here is the thing, if you asked me about two months ago, I would have said that BJP is the most fascinating state of them all. - Yeah, believe me, Haryana Ali is far quite clear. - So here is the thing, if you asked me about two months ago, he's going to not even get 30 seats, or 25 seats in Haryana. I am not so sure anymore. - Why? - Because Congress has, Congress has, (speaking in foreign language) to Congress, which I never complain because they should themselves in the food. Congress has been sort of the narrative in Haryana is that Congress has over sort of pended to the Jat community. So Congress is seen as a Jat party with the hood does and stuff. And Kumari Selejah, who's their AC leader, who won that seat in a big margin last time, sits up. He was seen that she was sidelined and Selejah is very close to the Gandhi family. She's the, you know, the little leader in Haryana. And Haryana does have some significant AC vote as well. In the upper caste vote, BJP, upper caste and upper caste non-Jat vote, BJP is going to sweep that vote as it always has done, but this time by even a bigger margin. But that AC vote where it goes is what we have to see and how the Kumari Selejah faction plays out. It seems like they have made up. And right now Congress is likely to be the single largest party in Haryana. But I think only 40 plus seats to guaranteed here. But I would say a month ago, I would have almost said that they would touch 60. There are 90 seats in Haryana that people, in case people are wondering, "Okay, what is the situation in Haryana?" And nobody had a majority. Last time, BJP got 40 seats, you need 46 to form the government. Strangely, Kashmir and Haryana had the same numbers, 1990 seats each. And Congress sprung a surprise by getting 31 seats last time. Dushyan Chautala's 10 seats were the, he played the kingmaker, he became the deputy CM and stuff. But this time, BJP is hoping for an interesting thing. They are hoping that the Ahmadinee party split some of the Congress vote. And then they are hoping, not Zha'ab, only a little bit. And then they are hoping that either the uncle, Abhising Chautala or the nephew, Dushyan Chautala gets five or six seats enough so that BJP can do this. So there are a lot of independent standing, there are a lot of, there are, I would say, 10 or 15 dummy candidates that BJP has put up. And the reason I say dummy candidates is, Subkopataik, they are not going to win more than 10% of the vote. But essentially, they are there in case, you see that the INLD or the BSP, which is because INLD is in alliance with Mayavarti. If they are gaining on the last minute, Apna go to Mkotaranswar Kedav, do you at least have five or six seats going to an ally, not to the Congress party? - So if Congress wins, do you think Sheldonji will be the chief finisher? - Okay, so I personally think that again, months ago it would have been Bhupinder Huda, but right now if Congress wanted to expand their base, they are probably better served if Selja has made the chief finisher. - Because if I was the Congress, I would make her. - Yes, because A, she's the closer, she's closer to the Gandhi family as well. A strong SC face, one her seat bit, pretty much on her own. And you already have the jat war. Harayana is not going to, you want to create that additional base and you can make the Fender Huda sort of a leader in the Lok Sabha and stuff. But then Congress is Congress. So, you know, they usually, they, after everything they did in Vadevadesh, they went kabal lath, the CM. And Uskha, Ithana, but I impaired Sakachindwala behage, like last, when kabal lath was made CM, at least Congress was winning 27, 2, or 28, 1. Now they went from there straight to 29, 0. So that is the situation in Harayana. In Harayana, BJP has also not covered its self in glory. They've changed the chief ministers halfway through, like a year ago, Mr. Qatar was the CM. And now, of course, it's Nayab Singh Saini, who is the CM? What BJP is suffering in Harayana is also an issue with power cuts and stuff in Gurgaon in that region. What happened, what has happened in Harayana is, there has been development. But then in some areas, you know, in Farigabad, in Gurgaon, those regions, there has also been unchecked development. So your basic civic services, people are not a little happy with key, you know, power jara, visually jari, water, drainage facilities. There's water logging. And this election is also happening right after monsoon. This was a very interesting monsoon for the, a lot of people in Harayana also work in Delhi. They may vote in Harayana. So Delhi had a very interesting, colorful monsoon. They go back and then vote in Harayana, is that going to be a factor? You know, water logging, people's, people losing their lives and so forth. That is what remains to be seen. In Harayana also, they have sort of changed a lot of their candidates, BJP. But if I were to look at areas, you know, you have the Panchula, Ambala, Yabunanagar, Kurukshetra, districts where BJP traditionally has done well. And I think they should do, continue to do well. They should get a few seats in Karmal and so forth in, in Faridabad like we talked about. But then you have the, the Jack belt of Karyana, where this is a Rotak, Jajar, Sirsa, you know, not Sirsa is not just Jad bread, but Mahapay, there is other votes as well. Mahindagar region, Loom, Revari. How does, how, how does sort of the local factors change? Right? Mahapay Sathrap's bath in the Rotak, where Bhupinder Huddha himself is fighting from Gari sample Akilohi, then the Rotak seat itself. And let's not forget, BJP lost five seats in Harayana. And had they not had Naveen Jindal cross over from the Congress, that seat was also governor. So that would have been a four, six loss for the BJP, or even a three, seven loss, had they not done some last minute understanding. So how does, how does that play out? The old belt of the Karyana used to be the Laal, the land of the Laals, right? You had the Bajalal, Bansilal and Devilal. Now their, their kids have sort of gone from one party to the other. Khulghib Bishnu is back with the BJP. BJP has taken Birinder Singh, who was with the BJP, is now back in the Congress. So how does that does, how does that come out? And they just nominated, I forget her name. I think he's, was it Kiran Chaudhary or someone? They nominated her to Rajasaba. And her daughter has been given a ticket from the BJP seat. She used to be a congress leader as well. So how does that work out? We have to see. So BJP has taken a lot of Bhavi Abhishnoi. He's been given a ticket. He's the son of Khulghib Bishnui, who is the son of Bajan Lal, right? So the dynasts are still getting the ticket in that. And this is probably BJP's sort of last rich effort key. You know, Kuchto Lekei, they had a very good leader in Captain Abhimanyu, who was seen as their jar face, who was a deputy CM and stuff. He's still fighting from Narnand in the Hissar district. But is he going to be getting the same sort of footage and the same sort of coverage as it was last time? I'm not so sure. I just hope that BJP does not forget its old leaders and stuff, because other internal rebellion who are, then their chances of coming back to power in Haryana are very less, because there are a lot of internal fights happening in Haryana as well. Yeah. What did you make of Vinesh Fogut and the entire saga? It was clearly she turned political so fast. I mean, I'm not surprised. That problem is not with Vinesh, actually, because Kuchkopni politics can be-- No, now she's dying. That's my problem. Now she's saying-- My problem is with the Chomos of the Congress who made Vinesh Fogut not winning a medal in the Olympics as some sort of a bloody virtue. She got a cup medal. So that medal was won. Exactly, exactly, exactly the point. It's so stupid. That Vinesh Fogut made it to the finals was brilliant. We all praised her. I mean, and even when I was praising someone, I was like, oh, you don't get to praise her. I was like, why the fuck do I not get to praise her, man? If she messes up, I will criticize if she's playing for India for God's sake. And then the funniest thing is after she didn't win a medal, these buggers wanted to sort of give her a medal, give her money, give her like this. What is the method? The reason why she didn't win a medal is because of you didn't qualify for a certain criteria. Now you can debate whether the criteria was good, bad, whatever. But weightlifting, if someone is of a certain weight category, they increase their weight and don't get a medal. Do you want to say, are you going to say, are you going to-- [SPEAKING SPANISH] So we will give them crores of rupees and stuff. That's rubbish. You are set-- this is a horrible message to send out to the our kids that you can actually suck at not following the criteria. And you can still win the medal type of awards and stuff. But it was clearly only done so that she can fight elections on the Congress party, and they can sort of get-- but we can't do this because we have sympathy voting. People of India are with Vinesh, but they're not going to vote for her because she didn't win an Olympic medal. It's stupid. Well, I don't know. I think what is stupid is the mindset that celebrates all of this. I did a detailed podcast with Varun Sanyal explaining weight cuts and everything. And we actually were very sympathetic to Vinesh, but that was Vinesh, the sportsman, not Vinesh, the congressman. So yeah. No, and here is the problem here. They are doing this givination, [SPEAKING SPANISH] The only person happy is the extended Fogard family because [SPEAKING SPANISH] One of the sisters is going to get a ministry or a thing or something. And I hope they don't come up with this insane thing that a Vinesh Fogard could see the sportsman [SPEAKING SPANISH] if Congress comes to power. And I'm like-- [SPEAKING SPANISH] That's what I fear, like the-- [SPEAKING SPANISH] The inherent tendencies we have to celebrate mediocrity just because it looks good on paper just frustrates the fuck out of me. Well, this is welcome. Welcome to mediocrity stan. That's what mediocrity stan. And which is why Canadians and Indians shouldn't get along very well because both Canada and India are peak mediocrity. There was this long, long ago, there was this piece written in the New York Times. And I bashed New York Times. But I think we got one thing right. And we were doing a podcast, I think, Sunana and Ann. We were joking about it. [SPEAKING SPANISH] And there was a film. And so someone in New York Times wrote it right. Only in India, are you making a movie on somebody who came forth in the Olympics? [LAUGHTER] So, people are like, all right, nay, it's not that. But unfortunately, as [INAUDIBLE] It is that. The story of Milha Singh. Man, I was bloody irritated when the excuses were made that he went and slept with an Australian girl before the Olympics. So, Uscavo, Staminar, Chalaga, and he came forth in the Olympics. That's what the movie talks about. And I'm like, wow. Yeah, chai. Is he going to pound two together? I was like, what are we talking about? Why are we not celebrating a win of Vindra? A win of Vindra, and he won the bloody gold medal when no Indian had ever won an individual gold medal in Beijing Olympics and stuff. But because we can show Milha Singh beating Pakistan, my god, we will make a movie on athletics. [SPEAKING SPANISH] So the whole Vindhish-fogad saga is almost coming back to that thing. I was looking at the top 10 Olympic performances in that India today, or sports team, at the rated line on Twitter. And Uscavo, Milha Singh's fourth place, and PT Ushah's fourth place were there. And I'm like, are you kidding me? You are not including Colonel Maleshwari, the first woman to win an individual medal in weightlifting ever in India, getting a bronze medal in Sydney Olympics where we were swept out. On the end, Uscavo and Antogi, he won a bronze individually, so he deserves to be in the top four. But her getting a bronze medal is not included, but the fourth place finishes are included. I mean, it's just ridiculous. Like, that is what we are celebrating as a country. [SPEAKING SPANISH] And, OK, the other thing, and this is of course. I'm going off topic right, but-- [SPEAKING SPANISH] [SPEAKING SPANISH] [SPEAKING SPANISH] [SPEAKING SPANISH] [SPEAKING SPANISH] [SPEAKING SPANISH] [SPEAKING SPANISH] [SPEAKING SPANISH] That's it. [SPEAKING SPANISH] I live in Houston. Simone Biles, who is probably one of the best athletes in the world, is from Houston, right? [SPEAKING SPANISH] I mean, she's celebrated and stuff, but I don't see her on the front pages of Houston chronicle and stuff. After she won, she became the oldest gymnast to win a gold medal there. What are we doing, man? This is really like-- [SPEAKING SPANISH] We are just doing it excessively. Ah, sorry. [SPEAKING SPANISH] [SPEAKING SPANISH] [SPEAKING SPANISH] problem, man, when you get defensive about everything. Now, this man is actually a very, very pro-India guy. He's a chess professional. He's a content creator. And all he said was-- I'm just using this as an example. He said it is truly unfathomable how this kid would come home from a country with no chess culture and not only become the world champion, but inspire generations of Indian kids to post chess forward-- the legend, Vishvi, 64, the king. Huge congratulations to India for winning the chess Olympiad, and Indians lost their shit. I mean, you should just-- so Indians just lost their shit. But the fact is, Indians did not have a chess culture. Yeah, we don't. I mean, by chess culture, you mean an active system where coaching happens and many other things happen. [SPEAKING SPANISH] Vishi came, and Vishi gave us a bat me a culture when we are seeing the fruits of it. It is, absolutely. And I'm glad, because Amay is on Twitter, and Amay used to represent Maharashtra in chess in the '90s. And I'm glad Amay did this. And he basically said, India has very little contribution to modern chess theory. Even the Indian defense openings came from the Austrians that refer to Indian chess pawn movement rules. Why are Indians so sensitive to everything? Listen. Why are you sensitive? We don't have chess culture. We don't play chess competitive. Yeah, we don't. We don't have chess culture. Now we are. And I can guarantee, in 10 to 15 years, we will have even more grandmasters and even more great players. Because now we have a culture. But it did not. I learned swimming as a child. Many people, I know, learn swimming as a child. But we were useless in competitive swimming, right? That is not called having a swimming culture. I even learned chess as a child. That is not called having a chess. A swimming, a gymnastic culture is when you are creating competitive. We do have a badminton culture. That is why we did not win a single medal in the Olympics. Because we have a badminton culture. We should be winning Olympics, right? We do have a field hockey culture, right? We have a cricket culture. We have a lot of champions, and we have a lot of champions. Chess made after Vishwanathan Anand. You created a bunch of champions. So this is the unfortunate thing. But I'll tell you this. Even if there was a chess culture before Vishid, right? Maybe there were champions. Maybe there were people and stuff. Was Indians having a grandmaster? Was he out of the world? Oh my god. We have one exceptional players. Now we are looking at five or 10 exceptional players, 20 exceptional players coming from India. That is called having a chess culture. Yeah, I don't know why Indians are sensitive for everything. Man, this is why I say it is mediocratistan. Because you celebrate mediocraty. In Ebola, we have this culture. We have a lot of Indians who are not very tolerant. We have a lot of tolerant players. How can you not call us tolerant? We have a lot of respect, we have a lot of respect. And this circles back to that Muslim lady who is like, how can you show us that we want to burn into temples now? We will burn that down, but how can you show that to us? We have a lot of respect. How can you ask this question? There will be only bad answers too. [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] Absolutely. It is such a weird mindset here. Why are people so defensive? Like, I don't get it. I don't understand. And it just becomes worse and worse. But one thing I want to sort of talk about is, and take it to a little bit of sort of a segue on this, because we were talking about Haryana, right? What is interesting is the whole restless protest and stuff that was going on, right? That is no longer being referenced. Fortunately or unfortunately for the wrestlers and whatever the allegations may be, Vinesh Poked has got herself her political journey from there. Are the other wrestlers still talking about, or is it only now means to a political end? That is the sad part of the whole discussion. And the second part within Haryana is-- and this is something that BJP has to wash out for us-- if BJP ends up with 25 seats or 30 seats in Haryana, but five of them happen to be these dynastes. Like, I said, Kaldi, Bishnu, his son, and so forth, and not their local Carter's. Who is going to be made the leader of opposition? Is the dynast going to lead you to a win in Haryana? Or are you going to sort of rely on your old RSS carders, your old leaders, like your Anil Vij, or your nayap sings any, or you have your capital-- [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] As well, our leader of opposition, [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] Unfortunately, yeah, you're having Sharma and stuff. So that's something they'll have to seek. [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] And stuff like that. You even have some ex like Tomita Dugal, who was an ex-IPS officer, sorry, from IRS officer. She's married to an IPS officer who's fighting on the BJP ticket this time. So a lot of interesting faces and stuff, but it feels like BJP has thrown everything they can at that. Congress is certainly in front. There are certain areas, Muslim-dominated areas, like no one stuff where Congress should do pretty well. What is a bit sort of, there is a region in Haryana called Palval, where Sushma Svaraj is from. And I don't know if BJP is going to do as well as they think they are. It's a kind of, it'll be a sad story for that if they lose in Sushma's Sushmaji's area. She actually came elected from Palval and became one of the youngest cabinet ministers in India at the age of 25, under Devi Lal's government. So either there was just a shout-out to the late Sushma Svaraj, a fabulous leader from Haryana, who I'm sure the current BJP also deal in misses. Yeah. I think the key, you know what, the key is how much of a vote Kattua Amadmipati is going to be. Amadmipati and also the Jhat votes of that goes to the Lokdals, right? There are three Jhat parties here. The Genanayak Jhanta party led by Dushyam, the INLE led by Abhasing Chautana, and then they are hoping that the 40 odd seats, or the 45 seats, in the Jhat belt. And when I say seats, I don't mean it has 60, 70% Jhat voted. If it's a 30% Jhat voted Congress is getting a 90% strike rate, that's good enough for them to get additional vote and win the seat, right? Absolutely. If they are getting, so Amadmipati, but Amadmipati Kultab was a thing. If Amadmipati gets the non-Jhat upper caste vote, it becomes a vote Kattua for BJP. And that is what BJP has to be talking about. Historical trends are BJP usually gets a lot of urban votes, even in the so-called anti-Modhi election of Lok Sabha BJP swept urban India. Correct. But Haryana, again, was a 555 thing. And right now, Haryana is Congress' election to lose because Congress is getting a little bit of the additional vote in that. But the problem with the Congress party is they cannot look beyond the party loyalists. If they do look beyond the party loyalists and create a Hawaii, then there is a chance. But I'll tell you something. The elections in Haryana are not for another two weeks. That is a heck of a lot of time. Mr. Modi is going to be back in India from US in the next 24 hours to 48 hours. He is going to campaign an address probably five rallies in Haryana, four to five rallies, because BJP is going to go for that killer shot and stuff. And Rahul Gandhi is going to do the same thing. Even in Haryana, Congress is given one seat to the Communist Party, which is very interesting. They seem to have now eternal alliance with communists, something that people like Kushner and I have always said that they had electoral alliance behind here. And how does the Dalit vote go? Because the BJP alliance is the most bizarre alliance. They have allied with a openly sort of pro-yard party in the INLD. And then you have the Dalit, S.C. vote with the-- so they have the same idea as the Congress Party does. And what BJP is hoping is that somehow between Abhay Chautala, J.J.P. and Mayavati, they end up with about 12 seats, and BJP ends up with about 35. And 35 and 12, they form the government. That is BJP's best-case scenario. I don't think BJP is coming in Haryana. It's quite-- Wait, wait. That-- I agree with you. I'm just saying that this is their thinking. Yeah, I know. I understand. [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] But again, they are probably a bigger factor in the Jammu and Kashmir elections than they are. So Haryana, go to Mahay, Haryana, there are about five or 10 seats, maybe even 10, 12 seats. There's also the Rajput vote, right? And then there is a-- which post that Pushottam Rupala comment we've talked about. And I made that prediction on this podcast that after that comment, Mr. Rupala is going to be sent to cold storage. It's been six months since the Lok Sabha election. No one has heard a word from Mr. Rupala on national TV. Yeah, he's going to come out only when Gujarat goes in election next time. I don't even think that is going to happen. Well, I don't think Mr. Rupala-- [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] BJP lost almost lost two seats in Gujarat. Almost three. One thought they pakka lost. But they could have lost up to three. And losing three seats in Gujarat is losing 30 seats in the rest of India for Mr. Modi. He doesn't forgive very easily, especially when he's the prime minister. I won't blame him on that. So I think he's going to be Mr. Rupala is in for some very interesting thing. So we'll see. [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] Yeah. So let's take the questions. Hi, question. What happens to all the good work done by Modi government if National Congress Congress forms the government in Kashmir? I'm assuming Jammu and Kashmiri government. Yeah, but absolute numbers may-- usually historical trend case after the BJP gets up to the other number. [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] As always, I don't know what other things-- No, I don't think there is a hunger assembly right now. I see an NC Congress government forming more likely than hunger assembly. [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] See, a hunger assembly only happens if PDP cuts some of their votes and the independence cut. But PDP and Rashid, they are engineer Rashid. But if PDP gets five seats and NC Congress is like 41, 42, I can bet my last dime they're going to support NC Congress because they don't want the sort of the fiasco of the fax machine happening again. So [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] I don't know if there's going to be an effect on that because there is one thing for sure. NC and Congress is kind of scared about their own survival. So you are not going to see for the first two years that they'll be very antagonistic about the development of the work on Jammu and Kashmir in terms of that. And they tried to do anything with 370. That's the center of the airport press and rule again. There's 70-- 370 guys. They can mine and cry and fuck up to lug and do three, four Vazirid, disco steps, Kuch Niyova. And you can look up Vazirid, disco. That's what is known by Nkashami. You-- the other issue is going to be is they need the tourism for India, from India. I know so many people who've been to Kashmir. I have know so many. They are the-- that is the biggest revenue and job created in Kashmir. If you cause unrest, if you cause problems, that's going to go away. And if quote unquote, the goal is sort of getting contract corruption, Yevo Ota, what I am curious to see in Kashmir is what happens to the quotas. Because now Jammu and Kashmir has OBC quotas, as SCST quotas. And suddenly, the Islamists in Kashmir are realizing that, oh my god, the 60%, 70%, 80% where we used to give, distribute college seats and admissions amongst our relatives and good friends and stuff, [NON-ENGLISH SPEECH] there will be-- Jammu and Kashmir will be covered in the same laws in India. And there is a huge anti quota sentiment in Jammu and Kashmir, and which I always joke about, that if the discussion about whether the 50% limit should be breached or not, and what-- if it comes from Kashmir, that's going to be really funny. And what will Rahul Gandhi do when one of his alliance partners is rallying against quotas in Kashmir, and the other alliance partners wants to breach the 50% limit in Bihar and UP. What will-- so that too means-- That is not going to be a problem. No, no, and that actually could turn out to be a very important discussion on quotas and stuff. The only question is, I just hope BJP doesn't panic, and said, OK, I'm going to be private sector quota if you ever may. I just hope that doesn't happen. Because that will be the end of the India story. Let's see. But that is the core R.A.R.B.J.P.B. is carrying a court in the Anaditi. Our courts will smash it. Wow. [INTERPOSING VOICES] Beyond the point, yes, absolutely. So are you telling me Prime Minister Modi should go to Mr. Chandrachud's house for Diwali also? [INTERPOSING VOICES] I mean, I don't know why that was such a big deal of a prime minister going for a Ganesh [INAUDIBLE] Real? Yeah, I mean, in US, there is a mass that happens where Obama used to go. I mean, the president goes and meets the chief justice man, and you are OK. I mean, why is this a big deal here? [INAUDIBLE] Good. Your prime minister should have courtial relations with the person, with the Chief Justice of India, with the president of India. That just means that your institutions are working. And if the Chief Justice of India, after this, sometimes even gives verdicts that the government is unhappy with. That means India is functioning as a functioning democracy. [INAUDIBLE] We're just-- we have such-- BJP is blessed to have these vinyl shits in Congress's opposition, who vine for everything. Yeah, that's true. Will the drama of Dharna and Roadblock happen in Delhi during this winter, particularly after the amendment of the work act? I mean, we'll see. The work back is going to get amended. The work for amendment is coming. Come hell or high water. It is coming. Yeah, the work for me. Whether you like it or not. Yeah, I don't know. Absolutely, it's coming. It's necessary. It's important. And I'm glad the government is sent it to the Standing Committee. What this has done is also it has tapered down the protest because energy in a Chely'e protest quesad. I wish almost the farm bills quesad be ayota, standing committee go by the time and then create a momentum for it for six months and then get it passed through the Lok Sabha and Rajasabar. And then no one really will oppose it. So one thing that Congress has gotten it right is that I think the BJP and Mr. Modi should sort of mirror is create this Hawa by talking about it on YouTube videos on discussions and stuff and then sort of pass it rather than introducing it as a Jadka. And this, so I think that's exactly what is happening, right? Multiple discussions are happening on-- No, no, I'm sorry. It's my reward. I'm saying farm bills quesad be ayota and I hope next laws may be ayota and that will actually help the government pass it through. Farm bills was a clear case of suicide of Punjabi's self-committed suicide. Joe, a self-immolation. Just go, "Well, then I woke up and I have been here." If they don't change their crop patterns and they don't change their production cycles of Punjab, as far as agriculture is concerned, all this pride about Punjabi, and Punjabi, and the O is not going to change the fact that Punjab now is 19 in GDP per capita in India. Punjab is a failing society. The only dream, every Punjabi, especially a Jadka Punjabi has, is to leave India and go to Canada. And that dream is also destroyed completely now as Canada has cracked down on everything. Now, what are these idiots going to do? It's a failed society and no matter how much the Punjabi community wants to avoid this reality, that their industries are dying, their agriculture is dying, it's a failed society and no matter what people say, it doesn't take the rest of the super chats are nothing to do with our election podcast. So I'm not going to take them. I stick to very simple rule. It has to be about politics or something. Like there is a, if Kashmir protests, quotas, raga will relent for them. I don't know, let's see. I don't think so, I don't know. Congress is very Shana, Congress knows how to manage these things far better than BJP does in many ways because they just find ninja techniques to justify everything and. - BJP with hundred seats in opposition can do more damage in terms of in parliament and get the government to the knees than Congress can do with hundred seats. Congress with hundred seats in the government sometimes does these ninja techniques better than BJP with 200 seats in the government. So I hope the script changes in BJP comes up with these ninja techniques for 240 and stuff. It's, there's a very famous line in the West Wing. It's okay, the looks have happened. Now it's up to time, you know, get up of the mat and smash it out of the park. So maybe that's the time. And I hope the government does it. I have a feeling that now they have nothing to lose. Oh yeah, 240, now they can just proceed with without, you know, without fear or fervor. So we'll see. Yeah. - Yeah, another bigoted question. Kashmir needs a China like solution thoughts. I don't know what this man wants. I mean, this man is psychotic. So that's all I can say. - No, I, no, I, I'm not even going to answer that question. - Yeah, that's all right. No, I wanted to shame the person for asking this bigoted question, but fine. I mean, clearly this person. - Maybe ask me if I might have a better, better, better option than that school. - This person has clearly channelized their energy Hadi with a Hindu name. So, you know, I leave it to them. And they're, you know, wet dreams. It's okay. I don't know what kind of bigotry these people spew, but we'll leave it there. We'll wrap up to our discussion. In November, we, in October, sorry. October, (speaks in foreign language) (speaks in foreign language) - So once the elections are announced and we will, you know, we'll announce a date for it. (speaks in foreign language) We might do a results podcast before we-- - Results podcast, (speaks in foreign language) (speaks in foreign language) (speaks in foreign language) - And Jarkand with the January May is the term of the assembly. So we'll see, (speaks in foreign language) and stuff. So, and then maybe we shall do one of these days, a discussion on one nation, one election, because both of us have been-- - I am reading the report. I am the-- - Me too. I am. (speaks in foreign language) Because both of us are vocal critics of that movement. So we'll see. (speaks in foreign language) - To Shahruv's language. To Shahruv also has a lot of views on it. To Shahruv is, to Shahruv is like, (speaks in foreign language) I'm just philosophically, we're both problem in one nation. One like saying, I'm reading the report. I'm reading the government report. Let's see. Government, (speaks in foreign language) What about after Mr. Modi? I have no issues with what happened, if this would happen-- - I don't like this idea. See, there are many problems. The arguments that I have received in favor of one nation, one election. I'm not talking about the government report. I'm talking about the arguments from social media in favor of it. I just don't buy them. I think those are weak arguments, but it's okay. Let's see. I will be doing a podcast on one nation, one election, which is, that's an idea I don't like, but let's see. Anyways, anything else you want to say before we wrap up? - No, that's it. I think two big things. This is the Congress's election to lose in, actually in all four states, but definitely in Jammu and Kashmir and Haryana. BJP is sort of paying for, you know, right now on house money. They are trying, no one's expecting them to do win, but if they get more than 25 seats or something, it's gonna be a Ballet Ballet movement for them. But their hope is to retain the base in Jammu and retain the base in the non-Jat upper caste vote in Haryana and get some of the AC vote in Haryana. That would be my conclusion, sir. - Sir enough. Let's see. In my feeling is Jammu and Kashmir will be a hunger assembly and then there will be Kissa Kursika and Mukhevantrikan Bannega. Haryana, I comfortably feel Congress is going to win, comfortably in Haryana. I really don't see any reason for Congress not to come. And then we'll discuss Jharkhand and Maharashtra. Whenever the election dates are announced and we'll cover them closer to the election. As always, if you want to throw other. - One last thing. India Madjitya and Ashwin got the man of the match and I'm very happy with that. - Yes, yes. - Because how many last quarter of you speak? - Yeah, I had to say that. - Yes, India Madjitya, Ashwin is the man of the match and Ashwin truly deserved it. Second test match starts on the 27th of this month. So, we'll be back with the cricket podcast also. After the match is done, we will talk about the New Zealand series. New Zealand has lost the test match. I think Rachana Mitra scored a wonderful 90 odd innings, but Sri Lanka beat them in the end. And Afghanistan, I think. - In Afghanistan, Sri Lanka. - Yeah, yeah, and he's also famously anti-India. So right now we have, it started with Maldives being mighty India, then it went to Bangladesh being anti India. (speaking in foreign language) And then they're like, (speaking in foreign language) (speaking in foreign language) (laughing) (speaking in foreign language) (speaking in foreign language) (speaking in foreign language) (speaking in foreign language) (speaking in foreign language) The world is based on power dynamics. India and Africa, Canada, Canada are the Khaiga, America are the Khaiga beyond the point. Yeah, Indian Nationalists (speaking in foreign language) or Sri Lanka or Bangladesh Nationalists (speaking in foreign language) Baki, Afghanistan beat South Africa also to one. So that was also a great result. (speaking in foreign language) So now we'll end. So if you want to follow other, go follow him on X. His Twitter handle, Xandal is there in the description of the podcast. If you want to support the Charvak podcast, do consider joining the membership program of the Charvak podcast. You can become a member on YouTube and on Patreon, whichever platform you prefer. You can also send your donations directly to me. If you're in India, you can send them using UPI to Qushal Merai at ICICI. If you're in Canada, you can send them through Interact at Qushal Merai81@gmail.com. If you can't do any of this and just want to watch Pakat Mehta Mehta Mehta Mehta Mehta Karlo Key, like the video, subscribe to the channel, leave a comment in the comment section. And if you're an audio listener, leave a rating in the audio platform of your preference. Let's see you guys next time. Until then, take care, bye-bye. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music)