PFF's Judah Fortgang and Ben Linsey discuss some of the best games from the week 3 slate of this 2024 season of football from a betting angle!
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what is up everybody this is week three of the PFF NFL podcast betting show I'm Ben Lindsey with me is Judah Forkang Judah how was how was your week I've been I'm an inkling it was pretty good based on some of the SGP's we ended on with New Orleans and Las Vegas big upsets big offensive production how's your your week - yeah not bad the beauty of kind of betting on these tail spots is like even if you're wrong on more than half the games or even like 75% if you kind of get a couple of these right and really nail the script then it can still be very profitable and thankfully that was the case with New Orleans and we talk a lot about that last week and then saying you know if Cooby X can kind of find some way to mitigate pressure this is a sneaky spot thankfully was able to capitalize on that would have been really special if car kind of reached some more of those milestone yards but I'm not going to complain with that and then obviously the Raiders held me out there with a little bit of passing towards the end of the game and a nice comeback all in all though solid betting week hopefully can kind of channel that even better week for it yeah I was I was kind of hesitant on the Saints I was like it's week one they played the Panthers Kubiak was doing some good stuff Dallas is a whole different beast and I'm sold I'm sold now I even you saw Michael Parsons after the game talking about all the creative ways they were they were chipping him and kind of mitigating his pass rush and Kubiak seems legit so that NFC South could be sneakily better than everyone thought with the Saints the Bucks the Falcons coming from behind they didn't look completely inept on offense again against the Eagles so fun division outside of Carolina maybe the red rifle is all that's needed to turn he kind of bowled out in that game he played in last year that's right I think we'll really see the difference between the situation by looking at the production difference and between Dalton and Young that's at least an intriguing story line if if nothing else to follow the Panthers for sure let's go forward the week three though and we were starting out with a game for the sickos and it's Steelers against Chargers the Steelers are one and a half point favorites 35 and a half point total do you think they're both teams kind of in this matchup want to control the game on the ground and play complimentary football with their defense that's been the case with the Steelers for a few years that's the case with the Chargers now with Jim Harbaugh coming in his head coach and they've had success through the first couple weeks I'll be it again some less than stellar opponents I'll say but both teams are two and L big game for both of them here how do you see it playing out yeah I think the main thing here is the rushing on both sides of the ball right these are both teams I mean I'm gonna throw out the Packers as like right now they have the highest run rate over expected right we talked about this last week expectation meaning relative the game situation obviously if you're up by 21 you're going to have a very different run rate than when you're down 21 so adjusting for those situational factors green Bayes number one but I think that's like a one-week anomaly where like clearly the game plan was we are not letting Malik well let's drop back and then if you have a number two and three it is the Chargers and the Steelers and then you kind of look on the flip side on the defensive side of the ball if you look at most efficiency metrics these are the top teams stopping the run according to part of that has to do with the opponents they face but Denver does not have a particularly great running game it appears the Panthers are obviously not exactly the most dominance of matchups for the Chargers nor the Raiders rushing offense look any good but like there is some you know work to be done kind of piecing out the signal from the noise so to speak from here and I think that's kind of where this main angle of the game goes because your point like both teams will want to run and I'm not sure if the Chargers interestingly enough schematically seem like they're not actually stopping the run at all and it's a question of like okay were their opponents just bad and that's why like the reason for their success or are they just going to be able to kind of win up front in which case like they'll actually be able to hide kind of some of the personnel issues they have on the defense because they're dropping eight coverage and still have a success running the ball I think that's a particularly intriguing angle and one I'm going to be looking forward to but I think the name of the game here is like who runs the ball better who stops the run better not the sexiest of matchups but I think that's really kind of determinative of how the games can be played yeah I'm with you you kind of mentioned the situation adjusted run rates just looking at the overall run rates both teams in the top five both teams in the top three and EPA per play stopping the run and so it it really comes down to which of these defenses can get the opposing offense out of what they want to do and get them into those passing situations because both teams do have edge rushers specifically who can wreck the game right when you get into those obvious passing situations the Steelers with TJ Watt that's actually a matchup that's really interesting is Watt lining up over that right tackle side almost exclusively going up against Joe Alt who has had a lot of success especially in past protection early in his career he looks as advertised did a good job against Max Crosby in week one not an easy matchup at all but Watt is capable of obviously he's capable of winning that matchup still right it's it it'll be a tough test if you can get the Chargers into those seconds and second longs third and longs and when I look at at the Los Angeles rushing offense I think it's that they've been living on these explosives early in the season these big JK Dobbins runs and you can kind of see that in the split just from efficiency versus success rate so they're eleventh in EPA per run they're 20 28th I believe in success rate so they've been living on these 40 50 yard runs from Dobbins I don't really know how sustainable that is against the Steelers front that is really talented it's it's a better front than even the Raiders or you've got the Stars and Wilkins and Crosby but the Steelers have a better overall front than Las Vegas does and certainly better than Carolina. Cam Hayward coming back in the middle of that defensive line has been massive for them he got hurt early last year came kind of rushed back mid-season and wasn't the same guy in the year but he looks fully healthy and he's our number one graded interior defensive lineman against the run through two weeks he's got that it's got that old man strength in the middle of that D line to go along with with TJ Watt and Alex Heisman and Keanu Benton who's coming on so I think that the Steelers might be able to limit what Los Angeles wants to do in the run game and then turn their pass pressures loose which Slater and Alt on paper great tackle combination there but I think they might be able to get after Herbert who did roll his ankle last week it seems like he's he's gonna be fine he's gonna play but maybe a little bit less mobility in this matchup and if the Steelers can do that it's it's gonna be an uphill battle for Los Angeles with the receiving talent they have a wide wide receiver in tight in yeah I think that's also right to highlight in specific why the pass rush matchup matters I think a little bit more which is like Justin Herbert's mobility is definitely affected right he has an ankle injury and I think that those are the plays on the margins especially in a game where the point spread is one and a half points here that that can really kind of shift the tie but I want to also focus on something you said about the run game and one of the intriguing elements from the Chargers rush offense which is like obviously they were they were a disaster last season but they brought in Greg Roman and PFF charts what we call perfectly blocked runs which are plays in which no offensive lineman makes a mistake i.e. they do their job and the offense be successful and if you break up the splits from Russia's that are perfectly blocked versus not perfectly blocked it is a massive gap it's the equivalent of having the best offense in football there's the worst offense in football and LA's rate this season has jumped from 43% last year to 68% this year now 68% is probably very high but this is a similar number to what we've seen Greg Roman offenses do granted a lot of that has to do with no more Jackson as quarterback but there is some reason there to believe that the explosiveness of the Chargers rushing offense is just a function of like when you have a lot of these perfectly blocked opportunities you're going to break big runs and I think there's some reason to believe that is semi sustainable maybe not at the rate that turns bad but directionally that that is something that that can be somewhat sticky but I do think kind of to your point like this game is almost a matter of like who can force the other out of what they wanted to do and we have no real sample especially given the turnover right the the Steelers have a new offensive coordinator a new quarterback the Chargers themselves have a new offensive coordinator that we don't really know these teams outside of the game script that they play into games and there are a lot of diverging paths for how I see this one playing out as a result the the angle I'm kind of interested in on the Pittsburgh offense is George Pickens looks like he's he's kind of made a jump alright he's he's a legit number one receiver and the just the raw receiving totals might not tell that story I think he's around 120 receiving yards doesn't have a touchdown through two weeks but a lot of his big plays have gotten called back by penalties so if you'd look at just most receiving yards in the NFL including plays called back by penalties one is Niko Collins to is George Pickens he had a dime from Justin Fields last week against their tan that got called back for a holding penalty he also drew it like a 40 yard pass interference penalty in that game that doesn't go into the receiving stats so that's something where say the the Chargers run defense is real they're stopping the Steelers on the ground which the Steelers are gonna they're gonna stick to the run no matter what they have that's their philosophy they have Arthur Smith they're going to run the ball but I think there's opportunities for Pickens to win downfield on some of these play action plays a ton of play action from Pittsburgh they've been moving the pocket with Justin Fields kind of boot him look for Pickens downfield and he's he's up there near the top of the league in terms of just ball winning ability even if a guy is kind of right in his hip pocket yeah I know I think that's actually probably my I'll think it's in a slightly different path but I think it's kind of riffing off the main thesis there I think my favorite kind of SGP angle from this game is the Chargers playing out from a lead and fields right now that the market is pricing in fields as this extremely low volume quarterback that doesn't really have a path towards a lot of yards but I think you're right to highlight that he's throwing the ball deep a lot and the results actually are like kind of flukey there he's had a lot of yards called back by virtue of penalties and like I mean depends on the parent is a penalty but that that kind as well and I think if you look at a game script in which the Chargers are playing from ahead I think it's more likely that we see fields at least relative to his props kind of go out for for a huge day and I think it's like he's throwing a lot of these I mean he must have thrown four or five of these kind of one-on-one balls a couple of them I just hit off and Jefferson's hands right you mentioned a few of the Pickens ones and I think that's a very viable path where the sealers are a little bit more pass-heavy by virtue of trailing the markets kind of regressing to game scripts in which the sealers have played from ahead and I think you can kind of parlay that angle nicely and not that much needs to go right for Justin Fields to throw for 225 yards 250 yards and you're going to get a very very steep price on that alt and I think it only happens in a game script in which the Chargers are playing from ahead and we kind of mentioned all the reasons why that could be. Yeah the nice thing there too is you know where the ball is going it's going the Pickens they they're number two receiver Van Jefferson probably Pat Firemith if you want to throw him in there whereas on the LA side it's a little bit murkier right Quinn Johnston got the two touchdowns last week but hard to tell on a week-to-week basis who's who's gonna get the looks there so just to recap I I kind of do like Pittsburgh in this one minus one and a half I think they're going to be able to slow down the Chargers rushing offense and I think they're going to be able to get some pressure on Justin Fields by getting him into those passing situations kind of goes against the Pickens angle because if they're playing from ahead you're probably gonna see a heavy dose of Najee Harris and Jalen Warren and even quarter L Patterson shout out shout out to him coming back with Arthur Smith the Pittsburgh but I'd like the Steelers in a close one the Steelers are never a team that's going to win by margin there it seems like they're always in these games that come down the one score games in the fourth quarter but at the one and a half total I just I think they're the better team and I think they get a win here yeah not not a side play for me here but I am gonna be playing that that all in a game script in which the Chargers are leading I think feels is live to go well over as passing prop we move on to another game with two two and O teams with the Houston Texans and the Minnesota Vikings Houston's favored by two and a half total is 45 and a half when we're recording on a Wednesday afternoon here and the Houston offense kind of a shaky day against Chicago all right Chicago has a a pretty good defense that was able to to make strout uncomfortable a little bit and force him outside the pocket and he made a lot of great plays outside the pocket that's an area of his game that he's definitely improved that was kind of the big question coming out of Ohio State is his creation ability and you saw the flashes in that game against Georgia and you saw the the flashes as the season progressed his rookie year he looks fully comfortable right when he's creating outside the pocket now but you don't want him having to do it as much as he did in that Chicago game Minnesota on the other side Sam Darnold is he's winning down field man he looks he looks decent whether that's a function of the Kevin O'Connell offense but they've been down some of their top targets T.J. Hockinson hasn't played yet this year Justin Jefferson left that game last week Jordan Addison was out some question marks about those receivers status coming into this game but how do you think this one kind of kind of goes from a games grip perspective so it's a it's Josh Naylor season I think a bit of soda wide receiver - yeah I think there's a central question here is like how good is this Minnesota defense and like it's one thing to kind of beat the Giants down it's another thing to like slow down San Francisco as well and like we mentioned a lot about Ryan Flores as his Greek coordinator I think Jonathan Greenard is one of the more underrated edge players in the NFL he was great with Houston last season it's been putting up terrific numbers early this season it's a different ballgame though going up against Houston do it again especially considering C.J. Strada has been terrific against the Blitz Minnesota obviously loves the Blitz a lot they were I believe first in the NFL last season their third this year blitzing close to 50% of their snaps C.J. Strada nine yards per attempt last year against the Blitz early early signs from this year suggest similar stats and it's I think a real question of like can Minnesota slow them down is Houston going to run the ball a whole bunch against against Minnesota it's kind of a little bit of a toss-up of like how they're going to do their their run pass rates I think and I'm also a little bit concerned about Houston's lack of explosive plays granted like some of that could be the Chicago defense is good but if you're really going to be elite you could expect that consistent production kind of week after week and that hasn't happened I mean tanked out a couple of big drops that would make this story look a little different but I think the signs are starting to crack a little bit on on Houston and C.J. Shroud he's making a lot of plays at a structure but he's also taking a lot of sacks and there are a lot of these three and outs so far for Houston that I'm not sure they've kind of made that leap from the offense they were last year which is very explosive and at times to put up these huge stats to a real consistent team that's going to score weekend we go and when you look at that against a potentially frisky Minnesota defense I think there are a lot of questions here and it's a very complicated game to break down yeah it seems like the the strategy on defense for Minnesota is they're going to give up yards I bet Brock Purdy's over last week he went for over 300 yards they're going to let teams move down the field but you force a few of those high leverage mistakes and get your offense in extra possession and it works out right in your favor as far as the run pass splits for Houston I do think this is a game they might try to lean into the run more similar to week one what we saw against the Colts Joe Mixon is seems like he's going to be okay he kind of rolled up his ankle on that that hip drop tackle in the Chicago game but he returned to the game and Houston is one of the biggest outside zone teams in the NFL 64% outside zone rate through week two it's not a huge sample but second highest in the NFL and the Vikings have kind of struggled the defending those those wide zone runs you look back to 2023 they were in the bottom half a league they're 31st any bail out per play this season through two weeks again small sample it's only 19 runs but still noteworthy especially just because when you look at at how their front is set up all right their edge Russia is Van Ginkle Grinnard useful players good pass Russia's versatile players I don't think they're great edge setters in the run game and kind of capping that that outside wall on the outside zone runs and then the interior has guys you can get kind of push back all right so Houston you saw how many hits Stroud took in that in that Chicago game talked about the sacks like the he's he's top 10 and knock down rate through two weeks I think this is just a situation where they're gonna be like okay with their 11th and pass rate over expected through two weeks maybe get back to to kind of moving the ball through the run game a little bit more against the defense that might be susceptible to giving up those those yards and chunks mixin has actually looked good and healthy and explosive through the first couple weeks maybe that changes a little bit of his ankles can be but I think this is a spot where they can have some success on the ground yeah no I think that's kind of the the spots look at and it's a for me the reason I'm not kind of all over this game betting it is like I don't want to coach my bets and try and say like this is what I think they will I have no clue and it's like I think it's it's right to kind of point that the path dependencies here and why maybe it's the spots of that live of just kind of seeing the angles and seeing or is this are they running a bunch of outside zone are they gonna have success and that probably elevates the floor of this offense and then you can start to layer in a lot of these play action passes that they like to do a lot of these kind of rollouts and that's where Stroud's had a lot of success but when I just think about like how am I gonna bet this game it's it's a lot more questions and and I we talk about this all the time but I think it is worth reiterating the benefit we have as betters is getting to choose when we bet books have to put our lines for every game and and we I think you almost want to have a threshold it doesn't make for like the sexiest content everyone wants to play but I think in making smart bets it's important to actually make sure you have some sort of angle or edge at least as you perceive it in order to actually place the bet and that's the biggest advantage we as betters have real quick before we move to the Minnesota off inside they the target distribution in Houston at least in terms of production last year it seemed pretty even right Niko's getting the ball tank was getting the ball Don Schultz is getting the ball Noah Brown is getting the ball this year it's been heavy Niko and he's been awesome but do you see that that changing kind of the season progresses is just noise in a in a two game sample that Tank Dell has four catches for 37 yards through two weeks and and digs is is kind of had a quiet start to the season as well yeah I don't think it's noise I think like and that says more about equal columns than it does anyone else which is that like I think Niko Collins is for real and is like a top top receiver in this league and his ability after the catch is like he doesn't do it in the same way as people see any well but he's one of the most effective after the catch players in the NFL Hank Dell's production I think looks very different he's dropped two deep balls I think one was was pretty obvious I mean they had that rollout play and I suggest try and found him right over the middle of the field just dropped it I think that looks very different the the stat lines of course and digs is not being used in the same way he has in the past he's a he's a shallow a doc guy right now I think that he would need a lot of receptions in order to kind of have a big big yardage day just a virtue of the role that he occupies that and that and of course change via injury but I think it's here to stay of like Collins is the guy who is going to be the most consistent and have the most diverse referee Dallas is gonna be the one who's gonna take top off and win on these deep passes and they're using digs in kind of these short-yarded situations and a lot in the red zone throw adult in Schultz there too he's he's a pretty solid tight end and I think that it's yours I think that's just kind of how they're utilizing guys at least until someone goes down yeah Niko is a really fun player man there's not that many receivers you talked about the after the catch ability who are also these big physical legit ex receivers like it's it's kind of in the AJ Brown mold of guys who pick up yards after the catch through their physicality and their size and their speed rather than kind of the the shiftiness we usually see yeah he doesn't he doesn't strike you as the type that's what I think is pretty like you don't it doesn't pass the eye test but I digress what are we thinking about Sam Darnold and this Minnesota Vikings offense is this a is this a legit like playoff containing offense once they get some of their pieces back and get healthy is is Darnold as he turned a page right is he on the the Geno Smith career arc here in Minnesota here's the thing like we had a bunch of quarterbacks last season for the Vikings like have relative success right like Nick Mullen was putting up numbers last season Josh dollops was like winning them some games I think that says more about Kevin O'Connell and the scheme that they have but but dare I say it I think Houston's gonna be the toughest defense that they face so far I think Sam just goes pretty overrated on the defensive side of the ball and I think that we're going to see some really drastic splits with Minnesota depending on how often they're able to kind of stay in structure and stay within the scheme and like Sam Darnold has some seriously drastic splits over the years of pressure versus not and I think it's going to be pretty matchup dependent I don't think like we've learned anything new about Donald he's fine producing kind of with him structure he has been that way frankly for most of his career he was just like in Adam Gates offenses and then like at a tiny bit of success actually in Carolina towards the end of that season so I don't think we learned anything I think that like Kevin O'Connell has got a great scheme and that means that the matchups that they that they have are going to become more relevant because when you have Pat from her homes out there the matchups he's gonna create for himself such that the matchups matter a little bit less he also has probably a great scheme and that does hurt but I think when you kind of look at well I like to think about this is let's say you're like base rate is like 70% of scheme plays and scheme plays are going to have a much higher base rate of success if you kind of move that on the fringe from like 60 in really hard matchups to 80 in really easy matchups I think that that's where a lot of the kind of like game-to-game stuff matters and then in spots where you have 60% success the 40% is so bad that it's going to outweigh the 60 and Minnesota kinda perform whereas in spots where you're playing the Giants and you're basically staying within structure of the entirety of the time you're going to see these big numbers so I think it's really going to come down to like the matchups and like do do they have a schematic advantage and then how many plays are they going to have within that schematic advantage and I think Houston's a little bit closer to I mean I made up numbers here with 70 but let's stick with those fake numbers a little bit closer to like the 65 or 60% a place that will be within scheme just by virtue of like what they've done defensively and I think it's a lot of talk about city share but they've been really good by basically every efficiency metric and I think that kind of continues and and I see the Vikings maybe have a little bit more trouble and and that will I think kind of shift the conversation up there to let go of Sam Donald back or not yeah a couple of the questions that that I have in mind on this side of the ball is one of the biggest strengths on the Houston defense is they have they have two legit dudes at defense event in Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter but it's it's a strength on strength match up Christian Darris all Brandon you know very good on the Minnesota Vikings offensive line that's a unit that has gotten better significantly over the last couple of years that used to be a real strengths especially on the interior but that's a group that has continued to improve so can they limit that pressure because of the the clean pressure splits you talked about with Donald and then can Donald hit a few of those shots downfield because that's something that he's looked very willing to do through the first few weeks of the season yes five completions 20 plus yards downfield is tied for second most in the league 210 passing yards obviously a 97 year pass Justin Jefferson's gonna help those numbers but he's look comfortable even beyond the Jefferson throw which was was great the when Jefferson was out and they had no Jordan Asin so Jalen Naylor is your guy and hitting him on that that seam ball in the fourth quarter right that back shoulder it's a great throw and Donald's look confident and I think that's speaking about the Vikings quarterback last year that's something you saw from Nick Mullins like they're gonna pull the trigger downfield Nick Mullins the offense was basically Justin Jefferson's down there somewhere right and I'm gonna launch it 30 yards downfield it led to a lot of interceptions and bad decisions but led to some big plays too man and I think you've got a better version of that with Sam Darnell you saw the Colts hit Houston twice on deep posts to Alec Pierce Chicago wasn't able to get anything going downfield against them and I'm not sure whether that's a function of Houston whether it's a function of the Chicago offense not not sure what to make of that honestly but I think I think Minnesota is one of these teams assuming Jefferson comes back which it looks like he will use that practice today with the quad conclusion Jordan Asin has a chance to come back from his injury it seems less likely than Jefferson when we're talking here on Wednesday but if you can hit a few of those big plays I think that's really what has to happen for Minnesota because the Houston defense is talented right and they're probably not going to be able to to march the ball down the field so you need to rely on those explosives yeah no I think that's honestly as you say at a great final over passing yards and then I mean Jefferson's props are going to be obviously a very high they're aware that just Jefferson is good a football but like something like a Josh Naylor add on there as an intriguing tales angle I think you're absolutely right but I think that's almost the only way at least offensively for them to kind of win yeah and just to close out that point Houston is a big cover four or quarters team so you you have those four deep zone defenders which in theory is kind of limiting shot plays but if you go back to the start of last year 2023 third most 20 plus yard receptions allowed so they they have been a team that has given up some explosives and personnel is different you got come our last they're in there you've got some some changes on that defense but I think that's how Minnesota is gonna have to win and honestly not something that I hate looking at as far as bet in this game like alright let's let's move on this one is not so the first two games we hit both two and O teams this one is not the Lions dropped a game last week to Tampa Bay but Lions Cardinals should be a fun one 51 and a half point total projected to be really high scoring Lions are three point favorites and the Cardinals man to Kyler what a game from him last week making plays outside of structure making plays in structure hitting guys on corner outs with underneath and coverage over the top he was he was pretty much perfect and it's it's fun when you've got a player as talented as Kyler playing like that kind of like we saw that first half of the 22 season when he was in the MVP conversation and they've got they've got weapons Marvin Harrison the speed concerns quickly went away in that first quarter Tre McBride one of the best Titans in the league James Connor just a really good consistent rusher they do some fun things in the wrong game this can this can be a really fun and efficient offense I think throughout this year it really comes down to can their defense give them enough and they did against the Rams but that was because the Rams were without half of their starting lineup on offense in my opinion and I think it might be a different story here against Detroit yeah I think that's exactly the right kind of long-term frame for the Cardinals and I would just add to that I mean I was definitely high on them coming into the season that like we the only sample we had of Kyler Murray was with really clipped Kingsbury and then coming off the DCL injury he was kind of like thrown into a lost season and and ease back into action that like I said group head saying I don't know our friends his last name I think that's that's something that something along those lines but I think I think you're right I think you're right I had seen it's a topic but people can't pronounce my last name for some reason Fort Gank to compound word Fort Gank we always get the 14 know to understand why but either way I think that if you look at we're talking like structure versus not Kyler Murray has been insanely good in structure and I think his reputation is like oh he's this great scrambler and he does have an element of that game and he's scrambled at the 7th highest rate so far but he's been like pretty good there what's really kind of elevated him in in both this year and the 2022 season that you you mentioned by 21 whatever year that was that he was in the MVP discussion I'm just confident in my head I think it's 2021 but either way like he's really shined actually in structure that's the spot where he's at his best and I'm willing to believe that that's sustainable and to your point it's really a question on the defensive side of the ball which leaves us in a very interesting spot if you want to like take a look at the markets right now Arizona is a three-point underdog at home and obviously we're just looking at how these two teams the Cardinals and Lions have played so far this season the line would not be three right it would be Arizona would be maybe a pick-up at worst but I think there is some kind of relevance to what the Lions have done in the past and like this is a very similar cast of characters what's particularly interesting to me is that the run game has been fine the run game is averaging a much higher EPA per rush their perfectly blocked rate is like 2% higher than it was last year by all accounts the run game's fine what's been weird is that the plays for Jarrod goff the area of the game right this infrastructure when he's not disrupted disrupted being played with either perfect coverage or pressure which throws a quarterback off of his reads or progression he's just been he's 26th in EPA per play so far in that category where he's been top three each of the last two years now it's very likely that that's just like a weird flooky two-game sample and this sort of things happens or like I don't know if you're seeing any of this on the film but like it's a push-and-pull league are there elements of the the Lions scheme which depends upon years are catching up to a bit possible I don't know but I think this is a spot where if they're not able to take advantage of Arizona because like it really is a question of like what's Arizona going to give them what's Arizona going with the Arizona defense going to give Arizona I should clarify and like this is almost the same test the Lions of like if they can't do this against Arizona's the like are they able to do it at all and I'm not I'm not willing to jump shift yet because we have a decent sample of the Lions as this good team but I think it's an important frame to keep in mind of like this team is gonna run the ball fine and that might be enough also just like in this matchup of like the Rams the Rams the Cardinals have teams are running against them at the third highest rate relative relative to expectation they can't stop the run it's been this paper a couple of years the Lions are gonna have success maybe they just count down their fruits and that's kind of the path for success but if they're kind of getting into this passing game and they're struggling against Arizona I have some concerns here I'm curious your take on the the Lions issues the past the couple of weeks and kind of how you see the main angles of this game yeah I think when I'm looking I'll start with the Arizona defense I think from a talent perspective they're they're clearly lacking on the defensive side but I think they're doing some good things schematically and I know when Gann Gann sign there's that coach it was he kind of got clowned but I think they are doing some some interesting things schematically that kind of match up with things that Jared golf has struggled with and going back to the end of golf's tenure with the Rams and really kind of declined with Fangio specifically and how teams started defending him it was the the five and six man France that was one part of it but it's also if you're going to be this under center play action quarterback it's it's changing the picture post now where you're you're going to to execute the play fake you turn around there's the different look than what you saw pre snap and that's something that Arizona does they will get linebackers up at the line of scrimmage it will drop guys they will bring bring guys on the blitz they've been a pretty big blitz team this year and they'll also rotate their safeties a good amount and I think that's something that has given golf trouble and something that Arizona might be able to force a few of those bad decisions throwing over the middle of the field in the windows where guys are that he's not expecting so kind of similar to what we talked about with the Minnesota Vikings offense the Cardinals defense is is going to need to rely on those turnovers because like you said I think Detroit's going to be able to to control the ball in the run game and move the ball down the field but if Arizona can get some of those splash plays that might be enough with what they have on offense and Detroit the other issue they've had it's not like they haven't been able to move the ball at all like they they have 11 red zone trips 11 red zone drives as tied most in the NFL with Philadelphia they've been bad in the resident they have not been able to finish drives 27% resident touchdown rate three for 11 that's fourth lowest in the NFL so it's not as if the sky is falling for Detroit it's just not quite as good as what we've seen in the last couple years with that Ben Johnson Jerry golf marriage yeah no I think that's right and almost a great frame of mind to have and I think the markets almost have that right but there are definitely a lot of these paths of like had this game can kind of go off script and we haven't really talked about this side of the ball but I think the Arizona as I mean we talked about the Arizona offense being for real but this is a Lions pass defense that I think many of us kind of expected to take that next step of like Aidan Hutchinson taking this year to leap and he's been great but the secondary still kind of weak and they're still allowing a lot of these explosive plays they're not generating a pass rush at the rate that we anticipated and I think a lot of their numbers are inflated frankly against the ARAMs offensive line which is maybe only behind the Patriots they're starting like third stringers all over the place here but I think there's a script in which the ramp the view lions run the ball effectively and like press them but like they can't convert in the red zone or just like they move the ball a bunch but when you're not relying on explosive plays and you're marching up and down the field it's we actually wrote about this at PFF a couple years ago it's a it's a problem in conditional probability of like even if you're the best offense in the league and you go 10 yards at a time and your series conversion rate is 70 percent right if you are doing that to the six power it's still a low chance of success because you are like series after series you were allowing a 30 percent chance of you not converting as opposed to an explosive offense where you're getting 30 of those yards off the bat you don't need that much more to go right you're already kind of in scoring position so I think there's an interesting game script here where it's like the lines run the ball well they're going to do that I think there's like no reason to think that they wouldn't but Arizona's explosive passing attack is really what's driving this game and they're the ones putting up the points and you can kind of get this nice inverse correlation this is an SGP all beyond of like jimmyr gibbs and or dathan montgomery rushing overs and also telling the story of Arizona winning and doing so via the explosive pass plays and he's also working very well together because that means if if Arizona's scoring with few plays that means there are plenty of plays to go around on the Detroit side for runs that's generally a problem of like if you're running the ball a lot you're also taking up more clock but you can still kind of get enough of that play volume if Arizona is successful via the explosive passing attack I'm wondering what you're thinking about about that angle in general and in particular like what's going on in the line it's defense yeah I think if Arizona's going to win this game which I think they have a good good chance to it's going to be with the passing game we talked a little bit early in the the season about the lines run defense being the stronger unit and you want to pass the ball against them um and to your point aden hutchison he had four and a half sacks against the buccaneers that still lost the game but he's been you've been dominant so far and that is an area of concern because Jonah Williams was supposed to be the starting right to upcoming into the year for Arizona he gets hurt so you have kelvin that beach him back a guy he was experienced not a complete liability out there but it is not your starting right tackle going into the year the thing that's interested me with Arizona so far this year is you think of them back with with Kingsbury specifically at the start of Kingsbury's tenure it was spread it was 10 personnel and now you're in this situation where they have more plays with multiple tight ends on the field than any other team in the NFL through the first two weeks of the season and that does a a couple of things it really benefits the the passing attack because you're getting base looks so they 26 pass plays with multiple tight ends on the field this season they're averaging 10.3 yards per play on those and the lions are one of these defenses that when they see multiple tight ends on the field they're going to match with base defense 70 last year second highest in the league a hundred percent through the first two weeks this year it's only nine plays but a hundred percent both the Marvin Harrison Jr's touchdowns came out of those looks last week McBride eats in those situations and this is a spot that I really like McBride he's he's had a really nice kind of target volume and role in this offense for the first couple weeks hasn't had a dominant game I think this this is a spot where you could see that that kind of breakthrough performance for him and that's how that's how Arizona is going to win like I I like their running game I think James Connor I mentioned is is a really solid runner a tough hard to bring down on first contact but if Arizona is going to win this game it's going to have to be on the back of Kyle Murray and specifically I think getting into those heavy looks and attacking the lion's base defense out of it yeah no I think that's great I would just for those unfamiliar with base can you clarify what is base and why does that put Arizona in such an advantageous matchup yeah base is essentially you have four defensive backs on the field so it's called base because that is in theory that is the the normal alignment so if you're in a four three you have four defensive line and three line baggers four defensive backs if you're in a three four just the inverse now it's the modern NFL nickel is the the predominant alignment which is five defensive backs on the field so when you get those those plays with four defensive backs on the field and this is something that the lions on the other side of the ball have taken advantage of in prior years a little bit less so this year but when you get that that an extra linebacker on the field or an extra bigger body on the field instead of a defensive back it just creates better situations particularly over the middle of the field for for your tight ends for your slot receivers because they're they're going against guys who are not as as good coverage defenders as a defensive back no I think that's that's great and I I think also points to how you can kind of use personnel diverse like packages and different ways for offensive coordinators to kind of put their players in positions to succeed and I think this is kind of a great example of that right there's a lot of discussion at a high level of like this I mean maybe I'm the only one who's talking about this what do I know of like this cat and mask game of like oh passing's down uh like defensive coordinators are playing a lot of these two high but it's like it leaves in things like what you just described of how the Cardinals are utilizing and effectively via their personnel forcing defenses to play base and kind of using that to their advantage of understanding like how certain coordinators operate that can lead to some particularly compelling betting angles both from a team perspective and as you said like looking at traffic ride I think that's it that's a great check and it works because the Cardinals have tight ends who can block and they have a good running game like there's there's teams who go at like when the Bengals go into 12 personnel with Mike is sicky it's like okay we're not gonna play base we talked about it a little bit with the Bills when they've got concave and knocks on the field it's like we're not probably gonna play base against that but with Arizona with McBride and Elijah Higgins and tip Ryman who they drafted as a blocking kind of inline tight end um it it works because you have to respect that and we saw games like last week against the Rams where if you don't you they can run it down your throat too yeah no and this is like where certain elements of like the data doesn't necessarily show up of like this stuff does and they play off each other and none of this is happening in isolation that all this stuff matters and Arizona's a good offense man and I think they've got the pieces to really be one of the one of the best ones in the NFL to recap this is a game that I'm going to be on a side I'm probably going to be on Arizona I think three is too much to your point about kind of what's played out so far the season versus our priors of these teams and then I'm gonna be on McBride right the the lines haven't come out yet but I'm imagining it's not going to be to the point where where I'm not going to want to take it probably nothing on on the Detroit side for me yeah I did like the under it's been bent down a little bit already to this point but I think kind of the main SGP angle here is betting on the Detroit rushing game and in Arizona till we end up yet explosive plays and basket all right let's let's round out kind of our single game deep dives with one of the Monday night football games we've got a we've got a double header this this week how do you feel about the seven thirty eight fifteen double header I just think of like the back in the day like a seven fifteen Monday night football game and then a game in the the A's stadium for the Raiders at 10 15 that's that's the stuff I like stagger the games allow me to to watch both I don't like this like seven thirty eight fifteen thing at all I want to be watching all the football I can with as much attention as I as I have I don't know feel the same way it it might be a boomer take for me but I can't 10 15 football games I cannot get behind that I am not gonna I'm not going to stay up until 1 30 in the morning to to watch a football game at least that I don't want to I will but I don't want to but the Jags bills let's get to it Buffalo is is four and a half points there it's 45 and a half point two um and Jacksonville it's I don't know what to make of this team I honestly don't really know what to make of either of these teams this is kind of a chaotic matchup there's some definite schematic angles uh to attack here but what are your initial thoughts parsing through this matchup yeah yeah I think this is the real strength on strength matchup uh and what I mean by that is Jacksonville has like been terrible uh in in defending against quick pressure they're allowing quick pressure at the third highest rate and Miami's defense is shaky but their pass rush has been good so far that was true last year obviously Vic Fangio was there so it's a little bit of a different story now but they're still at the top of the league through through two weeks and Cleveland as well and one of the the better pass rushes Buffalo is kind of towards the middle of the pack there and not only that but uh I think that where their strength is is the secondary and I post this like graph of like separation prevented uh and like Buffalo had no one in no one else has no team has two corners in the top range there but Buffalo has four uh I grabbed a Toronto office heart it's a small sample but we've seen this for a bunch of years now of like uh Sean McDermott turned these like six-ground picks out of Villanova into studs um tell me about it that someone who was on Miami and they're they're passing offense last week uh the pre two injury that was that was tough to watch that was that was I mean two oh I don't know what was happening on some of those turnovers but a lot of them like they were just confusing him uh offensive players not running the right rats and like this is a good defense this is a good secondary but where they're particularly vulnerable I think is but they've allowed at least separation of 18 and Jacksonville has generated the second most separation uh and I think these two angles are not isolated from each other because if Jacksonville has more time to throw it's going to mean more separation uh and like they're attacking the ball extremely deep this year Trevor Lawrence stepped apart it is like 13 which would be number one in the NFL and every other season except by Andrew Richardson's at like 17 because he's only throwing the ball like 35 times and and they've been mostly uh deep bombs I say that semi-preciously but uh I think like we don't really know that much uh about the Jacksonville offense if they have a little bit more time to throw and I anticipate that they do they've also like we have to mention in any conversation about Jacksonville they had five drops last week they had some more week one like these things cannot sustain itself over time I think you want to look at the underlying numbers Trevor Lawrence is second in deep grade the second in deep accuracy now part of that has to do with his wide receivers but that's not changing anytime soon slow the same wide receivers and I think with a little bit more time we can kind of start to see the the Jacksonville offense unlocked a bit that's kind of my take on that I'll stop there that's my take on the Jacksonville side of things uh it's hard because like we're going on year two of the same story and to some extent year three and the analytics person in me is wanting to say like okay these are generally unstable areas they're going to regress but you also have to kind of be sensitive to particular situations and like maybe there's something that is not captured here in the data that would suggest that like this is repeating itself for a reason and I'm kind of torn by that I'm still going to stand strong and in my my Jacksonville conviction because I think there's such a gap between the underlying numbers and the production but it's a tricky question and and one that I think better's have to take seriously so what I'm hearing is Gabe Davis revenge game that's what I'm hearing that's it that's it uh you can trust me all that I just keep blabbering on and and you know it's just it's Gabe Davis that's all I need it to be said uh I kind of view this a little bit differently on that side of all not that what you're saying in terms of there's going to be a regression there probably will this is a tough matchup for it in my opinion because Buffalo under Sean McDermott has consistently like year after year been one of the best teams that uh eliminating the targets like teams don't even even try it against them um this year they are the only team in the NFL for two weeks that hasn't allowed a completion 20 plus yards downfield and to your point that is where Jacksonville has been trying to live Lawrence Lawrence has more deep attempts than Anthony Richardson right he's under him in ADOT but he's drawn the ball 20 plus yards downfield 11 times the bills I have faith in their ability that to take away those those downfield shots just because we've seen it for years and then from a pass rush perspective that's a weakness for Jacksonville right the the offensive line is shaky especially if you're trying to hold the ball and get it downfield and from Buffalo the the Miami limits pressure well so the overall pressure numbers aren't great but they're second for us in team pass rush grade the Jacksonville offensive line is 26th and pass blocking grade and quietly massive development for Buffalo is that von Miller looks like von Miller again he he has that that speed and bend around the outside he's he's got the spin move off of it that was not the case at all last year he was the shell of himself but through the first two weeks there's been flashes of him being still a top tier guy at least situationally when they want to use him to get home and he's going up against Anton Harrison on that right tackle side who's been a real weak point for Jacksonville so if I think Buffalo can can take away those deep shots that Jacksonville wants to hit and I think they can get home with pressure it's it's a tough spot for me to believe in the Jacksonville offense yeah no it's fair I think it really is a strength on strike matchup and and like that's the frame I think of how to do it I just see like a possibility that Jacksonville is going to have some success but there are some serious drawbacks I would agree there and it's not not the easiest spot I think what's also interesting on this game is like looking at the bill's offense and like under Joe Brady they've been a real run heavy team in some way they were like the first see who kind of like eliminates so to speak this like a passing game and just like go like 8% run over expected rely on like Josh Allen's legs too in kind of key spots and I think that just lends itself to a lot of these high variance games I think the thought is that in general when you run the ball there's like less variance just because like your risk of turnover is lower but I actually think when you have a quarterback the caliber of Josh Allen the more you run the ball the more variants you introduce because it's a fewer it's less of a sample for like your best player either the biggest advantage you have to do his thing and that just kind of makes me uncomfortable and like we make this uncomfortable is like irrelevant for betting like my feelings don't really matter here but but the point is Buffalo looks like they have this dominant win against the Dolphins and it was but like that was also a function of turnovers and like Buffalo Buffalo offense didn't have to do much and their game against Arizona was like kind of dicey leap I think they're going to be in a lot of these spots where that you're kind of frustrated that they haven't pulled away late and there's like some margin to this game the bills were I mean they were five and a half point favorites it's been fed down a bit where if Jacksonville has the success passing and they do regress and they can kind of mitigate what Buffalo does best I think there's just a spot of Buffalo shooting themselves in the foot and continuing to run the ball and not really relying on Josh Allen that also has me kind of concerned on the bill side I see this side a little differently too and I think it's it mainly comes down to the match of angle where we talked about it last week Jacksonville is playing man coverage all the time like it's it's 57 percent through the first two weeks of the season first in the NFL there's only two teams about 50 it's them in the Broncos and that's something that the bill's office has had success against man coverage for the last couple years if you look at Josh Allen's passing grades against man since 2022 the three highest-grade quarterbacks in league burrow Allen the homes and yes you don't have to find digs right and a lot of this is is a function of receivers and I I refuse to bet on a bill's receiver I don't know I don't know where those targets are going I I can't make any sense of it um the one piece I do like here is James Cook receiving specifically and that's something that we've seen with Joe Brady offenses going back to when he was at LSU there's a big reason Clyde Edwards the layer was drafted in the first round it's kind of how he was used as a receiver didn't really get a big sample with with CMC in in Carolina when he was there but we've seen it again in Buffalo and they when they feel like they've got man coverage looks they will scheme stuff up for him the fourth and three touchdown against Miami being an example and I think he's he's someone who can win in those situations I think it's it's an area even though I don't know where it's going to come from I have faith in Allen's ability both to pick the right match-ups to deliver the ball to scramble when guys have his back to him um have their back to him and I think it's a good match-up for the bill's offense whether or not necessarily just going to to rely on the run game yeah no I mean I I wish that were true and I think that like maybe maybe I'm maybe I'm coaching my bets here maybe I'm that's kind of my problem like I would be all over the bill if I had a feeling they were if I knew they were going to pass but I think the point you bring up a bet man is particularly interesting and like I want to be attacking the Jacksonville defense when they're like they're playing the offense when they're playing a team that like the offense has a clear match-up advantage and like I just don't see that at all with the bills like who's going to really take an edge of the fact that like the Jaguars are playing a ton of man coverage with back corners like I don't think Curtis Samuel or Keon Coleman or Piz Valdez Scantling are like these these deep threats or these man beaters that are going to really punish Jackson Bill but the point I think also is like all relative to the base of like the bills are still favorites for a good reason and they are are still a great offense and there's there's a reason for that it's relative to that expectation like where can we kind of deviate at least on the path at least in my approach and I think that's on the Jacksonville side and I don't see especially now considering the like the market was like really selling on Buffalo last week like there were three point underdogs two and a half point underdogs against the dolphins that to me was like okay what's happening here like we're really kind of overselling the new Buffalo offense but now we've kind of flipped that and to me when I look in that frame that's what Jackson will become particularly intriguing though all of the angles you mentioned are certainly acceptable and certainly would lead to some value on the bills. Yeah I think just talking through it I have to be on Buffalo if I like to even say like their offense to that extent probably it under on Lawrence I can see and over on cook receiving but I see your angle too right do you you you're taking the chance on the talent and it's easy to bet on talent with Trevor Lawrence and Brian Thomas who has looked great and they're they're another team that has had some weapons for Lawrence to get the ball too. Yeah so I was gonna be on an FTP in all honesty. I anticipated Trevor Lawrence's prop with 225 last week and I anticipated his number being something similar and there'd be some value on the passing attack. Since we started recording his passing prop has been released and it is sitting around like the 260 range and that I mean the plus yeah it's even higher than that it's like 275. At that price that's not something I'm willing to back I guess the the market if anything I kind of like the under now for a lot. I like the under more now now that you say that. Yeah I would be on the Trevor Lawrence under here especially on this in the strength on strength. So no SGP for me but I do still think the Jaguars are an appealing underdog here. Well talking about SGP is let's let's get into it. So there's no Jaguars SGP but what what other situations are you looking at in the game so we haven't hit on yet. So I'm going to go first with Anthony Richardson his all passing yards and then that going to Alec Pierce right there playing the Bears they are only a point favorite that's kind of a interesting number. I'd be curious your thoughts very briefly on that game but what I think hasn't been covered is that Alec Pierce is the guy in in Indianapolis. I think Michael Pittman was kind of assumed as this is more of this possession receiver a guy who's going to try and you know beat you in that intermediate range but Anthony Richardson loves throwing deep and that's kind of this offense of like a real running gun style and Alec Pierce has a 30% target rate. He's he's doing all most of his work against zone coverage. I also think Josh Downs is going to be back this week which is going to cut into AD Mitchell's shares but Alec Pierce is going to be on the field he's leading them in in snaps. He's generating a ton of targets he's he's also winning down field and I think when you think about how the Colts put together a big passing day it's just like they're going to be taking their shots they're going to be taking one or two of these they didn't really have that opportunity in that like ridiculously flunky wacky game script for Green Bay random all like 60 times that's not sustaining itself that they're going to run more plays as a result Anthony Richardson's yardage numbers are way down but with him at quarterback especially if the play volume is up and anticipate that being the case this is a Chicago team that's going to be a past funnel and I do think the Indianapolis less has some success on the ground but you're getting like plus 800 for 250 yards it's a couple of deep bombs to Alec Pierce and I think that's a game in which they win because if they are hitting on some explosives and still kind of with the base that the Colts have rushing the football on on the flip side I'm selling Caleb Williams ability to kind of put up points on the Chicago side I really like that Richardson it's a Pierce and in a Colts win yeah it's Pierce should should owe some commission to Richardson or something on his next contract because he got going from Gardner Menchoo last year to to Richardson it's it just suits him right the ease that's what he does he wins vertically and Richardson's gonna hit him 60 yards downfield off his back foot like we saw in the the week one game against Houston and it's a it's a much better situation for him and I I like that angle I do think this I don't have a lot of faith in the Bears offense I'll start out by prefacing it with that but the Colts are one of these teams who's not they're not gonna throw stuff at at Caleb Williams like they're going to rush for they're gonna play 66% cover three is what it's at which is crazy through two weeks that's they're the only team above 50 so it's gonna be one of these situations unlike Houston Houston kind of deviated from what they did they they blitz pretty heavily they they changed some things up on the back end the Colts you know what you're going to get going into it so it's a it's a much more static matchup not to say that I don't think the Colts are going to win this game but I do think it's a bounce back spot for this Bears offense too yeah okay that's that's fair and it does I guess give me some kind of PTSD of the Colts just do what they do and they were like hey we're not gonna sell at the stop the rim with Malik Willis at quarterback but I can't believe that that was one of my more I had more conviction in that just based on what I'd seen from Malik Willis in Tennessee and that Matt LaFlore might be a wizard I don't know that's the number one reason to not cook your bets because in the second half when they're like hey let's sell out to stop the run Green Bay didn't do anything but for whatever reason Indianapolis was just like Matt we're not going to do that to start the game even though that was so obviously going to be the game plan I salvaged it with a massive Malik Willis under after one drive and I'm like oh Green Bay is really not passing them off like they're going to do the the army thing here and just like run triple option it's army or navy whatever both do it it's a service you got anything a navy might have moved out of it but here you go army still knows for sure either way onto the next um same thing with a similar kind of angle of like receivers who are like taking up a huge share that I don't think the markets have have quite addressed to yet and that is Jackson Smith and Jigba who last season was kind of like i mean dk knockoff was the number one and the entire lock it was still pretty clearly the number two now that's uh kind of flipped and Json leads the leads the team he's gotten a target on 31 of his routes the Seahawks when everyone else has been running the ball a lot if you look at the the pass rates over expected across the league they are very very down a team that that is still throwing the ball a lot are the Seattle Seahawks and that's been the case for a couple of years now I think that Miami is also going to be a serious pass funnel and we spoke about the pass rush as as the strength but the secondary has been really really weak they've been allowing a lot of explosive plays and in a very high depth of target against both of those are our top five and I think when you look on the flip side of the ball Seattle has done a great job with these simulated pressure looks that we might have been doing this for years they're generating a ton of these pressure disruptions that's disruption that causes a quarterback to take off his read and we've got Skylar Thompson on the other side of the ball uh the the difference as a little side note between like the time to throw for Skylar Thompson into a talking about Loa which is like this is supposedly the same offense and to a talking about Loa is like making the right reads in 2.3 seconds and Skylar Thompson's at like 2.9 uh very interesting but that that as leave that as an aside I see this as a spot where Seattle is going to get a ton of a ton of a bunch of sacks a lot of pressure Miami is not going to be able to sustain drives and I think that just means more plays for Seattle where they're going to be passing Jackson Smith and Jigba is like the number one receiver on this team right now uh they're using him a lot more vertically uh where like last year they were not doing that at all uh I see this as a spot where he's just like fundamentally mispriced and I think you can kind of see a decent passing day from from Gino and Jackson Smith and Jigba yeah the changes that they made offensively um moving from Shane Waldron to Ryan Grubb I think it's just unlock more of the feel for them and Smith and Jigba's been one of the beneficiaries and the pass rush to your point is look good for them too uh granted grain assault going against the Patriots and the Broncos in the first two weeks but if we're going to get Skylar Thompson holding onto the ball for three seconds per play behind that Miami offensive line that's not that dissimilar right it's it's a very different story when you take away all the the pressure deterring things that uh have had a lot of success with with two are there so that's right and I think uh we got a pencil in the Seahawks lines next week uh because of monday nighter and I guess we're talking about lines again but I definitely want to hear more of your your thoughts on the Seattle schematic angles my last one here and I think there are just a lot of very compelling game scripts that can lead to this is Lamar Jackson all brushing in a Dallas win I actually I think this line is priced right I think this is like a pretty intriguing game but uh Dallas has allowed a lot of these quarterback scrambles early early in the season Lamar Jackson's also have these designed rushes are up uh and I think we're going to see uh a bunch of those and you're getting this inverse correlation with Dallas winning where I think we see you as Baltimore kind of goes with this uh they're they're ordinary game plan they're mutual script game plans so to speak you're gonna see a lot more of these rushes I just like to like that angle in general and then when you add on a game script in which both mars flying from behind those are just plenty more drawbacks for Lamar Jackson to scramble I see this as a spot where I mean Dallas as you as you kind of predicted they played a bunch of men uh men coverage and we've gone and as the season's gone along they were much uh more zone heavy last season but if Lamar Jackson's under duress as he's been uh because of his offensive line and like he's going up against michael persons I think that just unlocks a lot more of these opportunities for scrambles uh so I see kind of two paths to this bed hitting which is like one this can stay in a neutral situation until late and the more Jackson's just relying on like their offense has a lot of his design rushes now uh and the second of like especially if Dallas is uh up ahead and Baltimore's playing from a lead a lot of these scrambles and he's in a real spot to scramble and you get this uh inverse correlation I guess a little sneak here uh of books do not seem to be adjusting to the fact that quarterback rushing yards do not are not predated the same as running back rushing yards uh and that's a spot I'm going to be looking to attack I really like that one I think it's a it's a good bounce back spot for Dallas because I know I said their pass rush it was gonna could wreck the game last week I think this is a spot where the Ravens aren't doing the same things that you saw with clincubiac in the Orleans and the offensive line has a lot of turnover there's a lot of question marks there um and like you said you get both the scramble aspect and the design rushing aspect so I really like that one probably my favorite of the the three you highlighted there there we go um let's round it out and close things out with a couple key insights and just an overview of what this is is a product the PFFs rolling out that I'm working on which is basically just kind of taking data and uh using using a model to spit out strength on weakness matchups and things that could be useful in a player prop that I'm riding up for my favorites each week over at PFF.com with a PFF plus subscription um and uh highlighting a two that I like here one is Brock Bowers kind of stepping immediately into a high volume role in the Las Vegas offense it's been targeted on 26% of his routes that's at six highest among tight ends the Panthers have allowed targets to tight ends of the third highest rate in the NFL and Bowers has been added as advertised right he's finding these holes underneath he's making tough catches over the middle of field he can add on after the catch and I kind of I'm interested to see what you think about this game we kind of hit it on it a little bit with uh Andy Dalton stepping in for Bryce Young and I think the Panthers immediately become a little bit more competitive which kind of reduces the risk of a game where the the Raiders just are gonna lean into running the ball a ton so I like I like Bowers uh over his in the spot against Caroline yeah no I like that and I think that to your point there is like some bounce back effects and like I don't think the situation around Bryce Young is like that terrible he's had plenty of clean pockets to work with I think it's only gonna improve with with Dalton and like we spoke about it a lot it's like last season you know Dalton had that one game where he was much much better I think he's also like there's this idea of like once someone's like a backup quarterback that they are just like almost equally bad I'm obviously like saying that flippantly but like Andy Dalton is like a fine starter he's better than Burger Manchu I think uh and like he's probably in that like bottom tier of like 22nd to 26th best quarterback he's not a disaster uh and and I do like this as like uh I mean their defense is atrocious and I think that to your point like Rock Bowers is there is legit and they have a lot of these really great weapons and to bought the Adams is obviously still uh a number one receiver this game plays out fairly close uh and both games kind of have to stick to a neutral script and you're not just gonna see uh teams run the ball a million times on Caroline X is 48 nothing after the first quarter I can't believe you're out here taking shots at Gardner after he just he's like oh look I'm going to win you you just gotta understand what he is right I mean uh he's not he's not turning into this great quarterback but he I do think is like really going to be elevated by this situation and by situation I usually I mean skiing but like they've got some real weapons uh like Jacoby my iris isn't on anything and he's a really good player I obviously I love Craig Tucker um like they they have a bunch of guys who can elevate Minshu but five and a half points is too much yeah I agree um the other one that I wanted to highlight to wrap things up I'm going to keep going back to the well with running backs against the eagles you can't stop me I'm going to do it until the wheels fall off I was on Jacobs in week one I was on B John last week uh and now you've got the Saints who have been an absolute house running running the ball and the Camaras is has been explosive right he's not uh he doesn't have the same burst necessarily they did early in his career but he's still got really good contact balance and he's looked really good in this offense through the first few weeks tied first in the NFL with seven runs of 10 plus yards he's had big holes that offensive line I still have like if you can get them industry dropback situations I still have concerns about them in pass protection but I think it's a good run blocking unit and they're doing interesting things in the run game and the eagles have been bad like they they have they've invested a lot of resources onto that defensive line Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis and some of these other guys they've just been getting bullied and I don't really see that changing their 31st and EPA allowed for run play um obviously Camaras line is going to probably be juiced up but it's it's an awesome spot uh for a rushing offense that has been elite during the first few weeks of this season yeah I think that's great and the one thing I had also highlighted is the relative to previous seasons it's like Camaras not in the time sure like he is the clear number one running back uh I mean he got basically all the work while this game was still relevant uh in in week one and in week two excuse me and a similar story in week one of like they're feeding him the ball and uh I think it it might still be a while for for Marcus to adjust to that I mean his lines are going to be high but it's a great spot that's all we got any any closing thoughts before we can kick it off I can't wait I can't wait for week three
