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Pickā€™em Podcast Week 4: Will Michigan cover the spread and/or upset USC?

The Michigan Wolverines are once again home underdogs at the Big House, this time it's against the USC Trojans. Can they pull off the upset, or cover the spread at the least? Von Lozon and Kellen Voss pick that game and more in this week's Pick'em Podcast! No. 24 Illinois at No. 22 Nebraska (-8) Houston at Cincinnati (-3.5) Baylor at Colorado (-1.5) Iowa (-2.5) at Minnesota Michigan State at Boston College (-6.5) No. 12 Utah at No. 14 Oklahoma State (-2.5) No. 6 Tennessee (-7) at No. 15 Oklahoma No. 11 USC (-5) at No. 18 Michigan Download the Autograph app today and start getting rewarded for all the things you do as a fan, like listening to this very podcast! Use our referral code: "MBREW" to get started. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Broadcast on:
20 Sep 2024
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The Michigan Wolverines are once again home underdogs at the Big House, this time it's against the USC Trojans. Can they pull off the upset, or cover the spread at the least? Von Lozon and Kellen Voss pick that game and more in this week's Pick'em Podcast!

No. 24 Illinois at No. 22 Nebraska (-8)

Houston at Cincinnati (-3.5)

Baylor at Colorado (-1.5)

Iowa (-2.5) at Minnesota

Michigan State at Boston College (-6.5)

No. 12 Utah at No. 14 Oklahoma State (-2.5)

No. 6 Tennessee (-7) at No. 15 Oklahoma

No. 11 USC (-5) at No. 18 Michigan

Download the Autograph app today and start getting rewarded for all the things you do as a fan, like listening to this very podcast! Use our referral code: "MBREW" to get started.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

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Hey, welcome in everybody to another edition of the pick on podcast right here on the block and podcast network. My name is Vaughn Lozon and joining me as always is my good friend and co host. Callan Voss to go through eight of the best games in college football and pick against the spread. Callan, how are you doing today, brother? I'm doing fantastic. Vaughn. I love picking these games with you. And we were just saying before that the season goes by so quickly. It's already a quarter of the way done. Like college football goes way too fast. It's amazing. It is amazing. I mean, it's like a blink of an eye. It goes by, I mean, snap of a finger, whatever you want to say. It's absolutely insane that we're already a quarter of the way through the season. And it's just going to keep getting faster and faster on us as we continue with the pick a podcast and covering Michigan football as we do on mason brew.com. 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So we've got another eight games to pick from against the spread, but real quick just to recap how we did in week three. Kellen, you went four and four. I also went four and four. We picked a couple different games. So you opted to choose Florida State as a bad decision. Well, I cast it on the money line on that one. I kind of figured Memphis had that one in the bag just had a little bit more to play for. So I got them at plus six and a half on the podcast and and got money on the money line. So you chose FSU. The one that you picked smartly you and your dog was Indiana covering the three points spread and they did it handily at UCLA. So I'm kind of out on the Bruins for the rest of the year, but you had a good pick there. Thank you. Thank you. Okay, Kurt Signetty did me, did me right. I bet on that in real life too. And I, I enjoyed the fruits of my labor. Yes. Yes. Yes. I actually, I actually quick aside. I actually used my winnings from that bet to bet on the Tigers to make the playoffs at like plus 420. Hey, I did that same bet buddy. Okay. You can cash out and I checked this morning. You can cash that out right now and you will double your money. But I'm not. I mean, I'm not, I'm not cashing that out. Are you kidding me? No, no, we're recording this on September 19th there. I think at this very moment, half the game. Half the game. Oh, my gosh. I haven't been this excited about Tigers baseball in a decade, but this isn't a baseball podcast. Not yet. Not that this is a baseball podcast, but I'm glad that you and I both cashed in on that. And hopefully we, it at the end of the day, hopefully they make the playoffs and we are rewarded for that bet. Also, I knew Mike's with our winnings or something. There we go. There we go. On top of those eight games. So we both went four and four. We also both correctly chose Northwestern in our eliminator challenge. They beat Eastern Illinois easily. And we both advanced in that. So we will continue that as well. So let's get into the eight games this week. My friend, we're going to start with a top 25 matchup that kicks off on Friday night. You don't usually get a top 25 matchup before Saturday's action, but that's just what we've got this week when Illinois number 24 ranked a line. I, they travel to the number 22 Nebraska corn huskers Nebraska as of right now are an eight point favorite Kellen. I'll let you start this week's slate. Who do you have covering in this game? This is, I think, sneaky, one of the best games on the whole slate this week. I just, I love this. I love this matchup. I love these two teams. But I think it's too many points in the doc initially this morning you had Illinois plus a I'm going to take the points there. I think this is going to be a slow old fashioned big 10 football game bruiser game. Illinois's got a fantastic turnover margin. It's actually eight to one right now to start off the season. They're four, they're four and one against the spread in the last five games against Nebraska. And here's a stat that I found that I, this is my favorite bet that I'm going to say today is the under 42 and a half points in this game. And let me tell you why Illinois is, this is per NBC sports. Illinois is 111th in the country in pace, which they're pretty slow in terms of their offense and stuff. Nebraska is even slower. They're 121st. Really? Wow. So this is, this is going to be a, well, this is going to be an old fashioned black and blue grind it out football, big 10 football game on a Friday night. And I love, I'm going to, I think I'm going to play some money on 42 and a half as the under. Because I just, I love that bet so much. So, but yeah, it's too many points. Illinois is, I think, I think the public's probably a little too heavy on Nebraska after how good the Riolo looked against Colorado with Colorado being as bad as they are. And I think Illinois is too good of a team with eight points after beating as they're beating my kids, a couple of weeks ago. I'm going to take Illinois in the points here. Yeah, I'm actually with you here. I'm taking Illinois. I think the line's just a little bit too high, especially given the stats that you gave with the pace. And just like their defenses, they, they both have very high quality defenses. I mean, you already hit on Illinois's, but I mean, they're just allowing 8.7 points per game so far this year. And 24 or 274 total yards per game on average. They've got six interceptions, four forced fumbles, three fumble recoveries. And they get to go up against a probably the best quarterback they've played so far. And Dylan Rayola, but he's a freshman and freshmen are prone to making mistakes. And this is the first real defense that Dylan Rayola will have played this season. You can't count Colorado. They're just, I mean, we'll get to Colorado later. But you can't count them as a legitimate defense or a challenge for them. Yeah, for him, even though they're a power 14. So, yeah, I mean, this is a home game for Nebraska, but defense travels. And that's what Illinois has. So I'm going to take Nebraska to win. But I'm going to take Illinois to cover as well with the eight points. Yeah, that feels like good choice. Yeah, the only concern I would have is that if Ryola actually is that guy and he's not just Kirkland Brandon Patrick Mahomes with the looks. If he actually like, if he actually pulls it off in terms of like has like four or five touchdowns in this game and lights up Illinois and then the narrative is like, well then it totally flips. I could totally see that happening. That's the only concern I would have. But I still like Illinois in the points just because of the defense that she talked about. Absolutely. We'll move on to our next game. We've got quite the matchup in the big 12 Houston is traveling to Cincinnati. This is a pretty tight spread here. And this, I don't believe this spread has changed at all this entire week. So Houston traveling to Cincinnati Cincinnati is a three and a half point favorite at home. And I'm going to take Cincinnati to win and to cover the spread. Houston's played some sloppy football to start the season, even though they only lost to Oklahoma by four points. And they blew out rice last week, but their offense has been pretty bad overall. They put up 33 points last week, but they only threw for 142 yards and one touchdown. On the other side of the ball Cincinnati, their quarterback, Brendan Soresby, he's been pretty good so far to start the season is completing 63% of his throws has 867 yards six touchdowns and has not turned the ball over zero interceptions. So I know that Cincinnati blew the game against pit a couple weeks back and that was kind of head scratcher. But I think they're able to keep things going at home this week against a relatively weak Houston team. So I will be taking Sensi to cover and obviously win this game. So which way are you leaning in this one, Kellen? This is actually we have, we have opposite picks now in the second game. I got Houston in this one. I don't know a ton about these two teams. I know the Sensi collapse against pit didn't make me feel good watching. I caught it. I caught the tail end of that. I didn't, I didn't love what I saw it as Sensi there. Houston obviously played Oklahoma close as bad as their offenses. I think their defense is pretty good. Houston's is. And so I think that can kind of keep them in this game. And my, my mantra is like when in doubt with the two teams take the points. So I'm going to take Houston plus three and a half. Fair enough, man. Easy enough. So, I mean, if three and a hook, it was sexy and I almost was enticed to take it as you did. But at the end of the day, I just, yeah, I trust Cincinnati and what they've got going on just a little bit more, but it should be a competitive game. So we'll move on. I got another barn burner going down. Baylor traveling to Colorado. And this is a super tight spread as well. Colorado is a one and a half point home favorite. Kellen, which way you're leaning for this game. I actually, I'm going to take the Baylor Bears. Surprisingly, Dave Aranda squad as hot as the seat is getting for Dave Aranda. I just think that the bears are undefeated against the spread. They covered against Utah covered against Carlington. And then last week they played something, I think, App State, maybe, and then Colorado. I just just, just, that's, that program is just in shambles at the moment. It's just like as good as Shadoor is as good as Travis Hunter is as much town as they have. All the rest of them. I'm not sure I can trust that team as far as I can throw them. They're only as flashy as their offenses. They're only a hundred and first in the country and points per game. Like you would think they put up way more points than they had. And honestly, it's a three game sample size and Nebraska kind of played into that. But the vibes around Colorado are terrible. So I'm going to take Baylor here. And I might, I might sprinkle Baylor Moneyline, if I'm being honest. Dude, me too. I'm with you. I think the wrong team is favored in this game. I'm taking Baylor with the points. I might sprinkle that Moneyline as well. Baylor has just, I mean, they've been a solid football team so far. And Dave Aranda is a good coach, even though he is, like you alluded to a little bit on the hot seat going into the season, but they've blown out. They've blown out the two teams that they should have beaten. And they, their only loss so far is to a very solid Utah team. And that was a competitive game for the most part. So on the other side for Colorado. Their defense is just it's bad. 86 on SP plus their offensive line is putrid run once again. They're putting should do her Sanders in such a bad hole and such bad situations each and every game. I thought he was going to get killed in that Nebraska game. I'm surprised that he came out of that one squeaky clean. I'm sure that he had some nicks and bruises coming out of that game. But my God, I mean, they really got to him big time. And they did not look impressive last week against Colorado State, which is a team that you would expect them to defeat by two, maybe three touchdowns. But yeah, it was much closer than that. So yeah, I SP plus actually has Baylor as 4.2 points better than Colorado. And the action networks model has Baylor as a six point favorite in this game. So yeah, I'm going to take Baylor to upset Colorado this week. And just why is the line so why is the line so lopsided then? Is it just the public favor or Colorado people like betting on Colorado, just with with John Sanders and stuff? It very well could be. Yeah, it very well could be. I haven't looked too much into that. But yeah, I just I look mad. I mean, if you're giving me some free money to spend on any game, it would probably be this money line right here. So I'm pretty confident in this one. So I'm going to take this cross for comparison here. David Rand has kind of got a little bit of Steve Pico vibes, the rock, the record book coach where it's like, you don't think of him as one of the standout like coaches. But like when you look at his resume and you look at what he's done, he's like, it's pretty consistent and pretty like, you know, like he's not a he's not a bad coach. He's kind of like underrated, I would say. Yeah, I'll take David Rand in this by here on the Baylor Bears. Jewelry isn't a gift you give just once. It's a way to remind your loved one of a beautiful moment every time they see it. Blue Nile can help you find the gift that says how you feel and says it beautifully with expert guidance and a wide assortment of jewelry of the highest quality at the best price. Go to Blue Nile dot com and experience the convenience of shopping Blue Nile, the original online jeweler since 1999. That's Blue Nile dot com to find the perfect jewelry gift for any occasion, Blue Nile dot com. Hey, it's Kaylee Cuoco for Priceline, ready to go to your happy place for a happy price? Well, why didn't you say so? Just download the Priceline app right now and save up to 60% on hotels. 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Let's move on to another big 10 match up here, and we'll get into a few of them actually coming up here momentarily. Let's start with Iowa going to Minnesota. Iowa still a 2.5 point favorite Minnesota being the home dog. I'll kick this one off your Kellen. I'm going to take Iowa to win and cover the spread of this 2.5 points. But look, I'm not super duper confident in this one. The one thing I am confident in in this game, if you are going to bet it, is the under. No matter what the number is, just hit the under. It's actually very surprising because Iowa has not hit an under yet this season. All of their totals have went over. But this one, I'm pretty confident this one's going to go under. In Minnesota's defense is ranked number 12 on SP plus Iowa's is ranked number two overall in the country and both offenses really just aren't fantastic. Minnesota's is ranked 81st and Iowa's is ranked 98. So with all that said, I'd smash the under, but when it comes to the game, I just trust Kirk Fairance and Iowa more than I do with PJ Fleck in Minnesota. I will take Iowa to win and to cover this 2.5 point spread. How do you see this one playing out? I have the exact same thing. I mean, you, you walked through the same logic I was going to have. I mean, Iowa's got a great run defense. Kate McNamara hasn't been great to start the season, but he's probably enough against this Minnesota offense that has struggled. And also, I remember Minnesota in that UNC game, they really, really struggled up front in that game. Yeah. And, and Iowa's got a much better front than North Carolina's, in my opinion. One little bit of research I found in this game. The bronze pig trophy they play for in this game, Iowa and Minnesota. I didn't, I didn't know that. So I think I would take some, I think Iowa takes home the Rosedale bronze pig in this matchup. There are so many unique trophies and rivalry match ups in college football. I, I, I love it. And this is why one of the many reasons I love college football as much as I do, just because of like little stuff like that just makes it so unique so fun. You don't find that really anywhere else in any other sport. So it's just the page. It's the pageantry. The pageantry is ridiculous. It is so like amazing at the same time. It is exactly like we all have like a little brown jug and the Paul Bunyan trophy and all these like weird trophies for all these obscure matchups that are just, that are just fun to watch. It's, it's awesome. It's awesome. So, yeah, let's move on to our next game here. Got another big 10 opponent traveling to an ACC opponent Michigan state who has been a little better than I anticipated they got that road win against Maryland. It's been a couple of weeks back. So they're traveling to Boston College this weekend and the BC Eagles are six and a half point favorites. Kellen, what do you got going in this one. I have BC minus six and a half in this one. I think it's just, it's a tough place to play for MSU. This dad I found shout out Graham college from the Lansing State Journal for putting this out out of 133 teams in college football. Michigan State is 131st in penalties when it comes to both the amount of penalties 33 and the amount of yards lost in penalties 342. That is pretty rough. Yeah, it's the third. It's the third worst team when it comes to penalties in all college football. So I think that like going on the road playing in a tough environment playing against the good coach and below Brian. Who's gotten that bought his starting to build that Boston College program pretty damn quickly. I think is, I think is enough to get BC the points there. So, yeah, yeah, I'm I'm with you. I'm taking Boston College as well. This team is way more legit than I thought they would be heading into the season, but Bill O'Brien, man. I mean, he's, he seems to be the right guy for the job. And he seems to have turned to this program around pretty quickly. Thomas Castellanos has been a stud for them a quarterback. He's thrown nine touchdown passes already to just two interceptions in their first three games. And they also have three running backs that have over 100 yards apiece. And Castellanos is really close to 100 rushing yards as well. He's got 97. So they've got playmakers all over the board. They just have, in my opinion, the better coaching as well. Jonathan Smith is a good coach, but it really looks like Bill O'Brien has his eagle squad turned around and looking pretty competitive in the ACC. I mean, they, that game against Missouri on the road last week came down to the wire. And honestly, they probably should have won that game. But I digress. I would, I would agree. And then the other thing too is like Aiden Childs with the, with Michigan State. I was talking about this with one of my coworkers today. Shout out Ross Jones if you're listening. But Aiden Childs is kind of the Jamis Winston of college football right now. Like everything he does either like the greatest throw on the planner or the most dumb backbreaking interception you could possibly have, which makes him in entertaining watch. But it's also like, I don't want to put money on that guy, you know. So I'm going to take Boston College because of that logic. Fair enough. And there is a rumor. I don't know if this is true or not, but I have seen rumors on the message boards, social media, et cetera, that they're a star freshman wide receiver Nick Marsh may not play in this game. So I think that might be partially why BC is well, I guess it should be a little bit more than six and a half if that's the case. But I digress if that is true. And he doesn't end up playing that would be a big blow to their offensive game plan. So, so anyways, I'm going to take BC with the points with six and a half at home. I just trust them a little bit more than a Sparty at this moment. Let's move on to the first of the next, the next three games here are all top 25 matchup. So in my opinion, these are going to be the matchups to watch this weekend. Honestly, this is a damn good slate this week. This is I think it's easily the best week we've had so far in terms of like entertaining matchups. It's, it's definitely gearing up to be that way. And it starts with this game in my opinion. Or, well, I guess not really the Friday game with Illinois Nebraska is really good too. But on Saturday, Utah, number 12 Utah travel to number 14 Oklahoma State. This has been a very interesting line to monitor this week. Utah was favored by two and a half at one point. And now Oklahoma State is favored by two and a half. So that pendulum swung hard in Oklahoma State's favor. And I'll start this one here, Kellen. I was going to pick Oklahoma State plus two and a half. I just think they're going to win the game anyways. So I will take Oklahoma State minus two and a half. So for Utah. Cam rising at quarterback, he is set to play this week. But I mean, you can't, you never know when this guy's going to get hurt. Yeah, he was on, he was unable to play last week because in the week two game that they had, he ran into a water cooler. That's how he got hurt. What? It's insane. He got injured for one week. He was out for the one week because he ran into a water cooler. So that's when Isaac Wilson, who is the younger brother of Zach Wilson of the NFL, came in and actually looked pretty good, pretty competent for a true freshman quarterback. But yeah, you just, you never know what you're going to get out of camera rising. So whether he, you know, plays the entire game or not, for me, it doesn't really matter. I just like what Oklahoma State's got going on, especially at a passing offense standpoint, Alan Bowman, in the past attack this year, been really good. Four wide receivers had more than 100 yards in their star receiver to Sean. Stribbling has 295 and two touchdowns already. And here's my fun fact for this game, Kellen, I'll throw it to you is the combined age of the starting quarterbacks in this game is 49. And by comparison, the combined age of starting quarterbacks in last week's Chicago Bears, Indianapolis Colts game was age 44. Oh my goodness. I don't Twitter for that one. So yeah, just pretty crazy that the level of experience that both these programs have. But yes, I will be taking Oklahoma State to win and to cover the two and a half. What do you have, Kellen? I have the same thing. I have Oklahoma State. I think that cameraizing health is probably why this line has moved as much as it has. I'd say the Oklahoma State, you know, Ollie Gordon was hyped up as one of the best, if not the best running back in the country before the season. And I've gotten off to a slower start, but the offense is clicking man like almost 43 points a game, almost 450 yards per game. And here's that I found a shout out Ivan White. He's a student journalist that writes for Oklahoma State's SI page. He pulled this one out. Mike Gundy's actually 14 and five in conference home opener since coming to Oklahoma State. So that's a pretty, I mean, that's a, you know, nice little stat there. And I think, yeah, I just, I don't know, rising health, coming back in a big spot like this in the game against the good coach Mike Gundy. I mean, obviously Utah's been been a really solid program for a while now. Oh, yeah. But I just, I think, I think I take. Oh, I think this, I don't feel like, I think this game will be close. I think this is the closest game. It is less like that is the least likely to be a blowout of anything here on this spread. So it kind of makes me nervous with the point with, with getting the lack of a hook, I guess, per se, I'll take Oklahoma State minus two and a half. Yeah. Yeah, I'm with you, man. I think this could be one of the closer games of the weekend. And I mean, this is going to be, it's one of the most hyped up games of the weekend for sure. So I'm curious to see how this one plays out, especially with the line movement and everything like that. I think this could end up being one of the better games, if not the best game this weekend overall. But let's move on to another game that I think could be pretty interesting here. Number six, Tennessee. They've been on fire to start the season. They travel to number 15, Oklahoma. And the Sooners are home dogs. They are seven point home dogs. So, Kellen, I'll let you kick this one off. What do you have for this game? I got, I got the Tennessee volunteers in this one, man. I got Tennessee cover in seven. I just think Tennessee is a wagon. I'm a believer in them after the last few weeks. I just think that Nico, EA, I, I, I, I, I, I know who I'm sorry. Nico, I'm so sorry if you're listening, but you're a damn good quarterback, Nico. And Tennessee is 15th in points in all the country, 64.3. They're actually third in the whole country and points allowed their average 4.3. So, that's, that's pretty nice. That's pretty fun stat to look at. And this is a Josh Hopel revenge game being that he got fired as Oklahoma's offensive coordinator. I think that that, that, that kind of, you know, college football coaches hold grudges better than anybody else. I think, I think that, I think that's going to play a factor here. And I think that Tennessee is going to cover the spread. And this is going to be the narrative coming out of this is going to be, oh, Tennessee, a legit title contender. I think they end up beating Oklahoma by, I think, 10 or 14 points. I'm going to, this, this might be my favorite, but I'm the whole board. I'm going to take Tennessee, my seven. Yeah, look, I'll keep it real straight and simple here. I'm with you. I'm taking Tennessee to win and to cover. I'm done picking against them this year because Nico is the truth, man. He has been a stud for a first year starter. He has looked solid. He's, he's certainly in the running for the Heisman Trophy. And it would not shock me if he ends up having a seat in New York City for the Heisman ceremony in December. He looks really good. And you already mentioned the Josh Hypel stuff. It's a revenge game for him getting fired from Oklahoma. I'm cranded. It was a long time ago. And, and I'm sure that, you know, he's going to let bygones be bygones, but at the end of the day, that's what I tell the media. Totally. That's what he'll tell the media. But at the end of the day, there probably is something internally where he's going to get up a little bit extra for this game. So, yeah, I think Tennessee is one of the elite teams so far in college football this season. I haven't seen that out of Oklahoma yet. So they're on the up and up for sure. I definitely like what they've got going, but I think Tennessee is a little bit further ahead at this point. So I'm going to take the volunteers to cover the seven point spread. I'll be it on the road at Oklahoma at a night game and it should be a fun one for sure. Let's, let's wrap it up with, of course, Michigan football. They once again have a home game and they are once again hosting a top 25 team. This time it is a conference game against the USC Trojans, number 11 USC number 18 Michigan, the Trojans come into this game as five point favorites. I will take this one first Kellen. I hate to do this again, but I got to pick against Michigan here until I see something that shows me that Michigan can compete against other quality opponents. So I will be taking USC to cover this five point spread. So for for Michigan, man, it really just, I mean, we've had a shuffling offensive line. We've had a mid season quarterback change. We've seen wide receivers barely get used in the passing game. And we've had a straight up and I don't want to like sugarcoat this or anything we've had a stubbornness by the coaching staff to have Calel Mullings. And they're stubborn in the fact that Donna keeps getting RB one snaps and carries. I don't think that is what's best for this offense. I'm granted. I'm not, I'm not a coach. So I, I don't want to take away what they're doing or what their game plan is. But at the end of the day, Don Oh, I think he should be used more in space. Give him some opportunities to catch the ball out of the slot, even a wheel route out of the backfield something. I've seen enough from him in the ground game to know that Calel Mullings is the better running back. Calel Mullings had two or three less carries than Don Oh, and he had double yards last week against Arkansas State. And I just think that it's going to be tough for Michigan to adjust on the fly to Alex or G taking over at quarterback. They're going to have to change their entire offensive game plan to suit his needs and his attributes that he brings to the quarterback position, which is more of a dual threat. Allah denied Robinson from 2010, as opposed to what they were running with Davis Warren, which is more of what you were accustomed to seeing Michigan football's offense looking like a season ago with JJ McCarthy. And I think that's partially the problem with how their offenses looked is Kurt Campbell to me. It appears that he still believes that JJ McCarthy is running the offense. And he's not. He's with the Minnesota Vikings. So for all those reasons against Michigan, USC, their offense is fantastic Miller Moss is a very underrated quarterback. He could shoot up the NFL draft boards by the end of the season wouldn't shock me whatsoever. So I just got to trust what my eye tells me and what I what I'm seeing from these two teams so far. And I'm seeing that USC is still, they still have the offensive firepower. This is vastly improved under Dan and Lynn, former UCLA defensive coordinator. And I think this is just a really tough spot for Michigan with a first time starting quarterback in Alex or G so for all those reasons I will be taking USC to win and to cover the spread. So, Kellen, I'll get off my soapbox and I'll let you pick. Those good you were you were cooking for a while there. I mean, I pretty much agree with every sentiment that you said I don't I don't trust Michigan to cover against anybody, especially a good team as good as USC. Yeah, they're all in three against the spread to exactly their own three against the spread I've gotten burned now twice against that. I, you know, the USC's defenses looked much better than it did last year that that definitely plays a significant factor into this. I do. It does kind of feel like and you were kind of touched on it. It does kind of feel like the last few weeks of the season where the coaching staff just kind of feeling like they could just run it back with everything that they had and not change up anything and not change your identity, which makes sense you're coming off a national championship like I totally get that, but you clearly have different personnel and you clear not tailoring it to what those personnel are doing so in a way I respect your own more for making the choice you kind of had to get out bad Dave's war and look last week. Don't love that he announced it on Monday to give Lincoln Riley a whole week. I agree with his scheme against it. I mean, obviously they were going to be prepared for both quarterbacks no matter what. I mean, I don't necessarily agree with because him comparing him to dinner. That's a little insulting to dinner. Well, no, let me, let me rephrase. I, I'm more so mean that the way that the offense was operating with a quarterback like tonight. Yeah. They're totally different players. Donard was a great, great player. Alex Orgy is nowhere close. I just, yeah, thank you for pointing that out. I did not mean to compare the player. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. Yeah. I wasn't, I wasn't, I wasn't getting on your case or anything like that. I was like, that did not, did not was a, as a thrower, especially the deep ball guy. I mean, shout out. Really round tree. That was my childhood. Oh, and I was dinner Robinson. Yeah. Catch and catch him balls from around tree. But I just, you know, Alex or she's unproven. And this is a, this is a pretty tough spot for your first start to be right coming on. You want to see team that's good enough that that's got playoff aspirations. A good coach that's been scheming up against you all week long. And there's probably a little bit of a weight lifted off his shoulders in a way of not having to be stuck on the sideline anymore. Like I we touched that we touched on last week. But I'm not going to take Michigan to cover until they prove to me that they're that that that that that that's a smart decision. Like this defense has got to get better. The skilled guys got to get better. Donald's got to get better. The offensive lines got to get better. They send them to a little bit of a groove against Arkansas state. And then it just, they, they didn't cover at the end because they kind of let Arkansas state just hang around those. And it's just, it's, it's irritating. And it's, it's frustrating as someone who loves this team. But I got to go with USC again, especially because it's less than a touchdown to like, I would even consider USC if it was like seven and a half or eight. So for it to be five. That's that's a really like honestly. Well last week before the game played out between Michigan and Arkansas state. There was an early line I think last Wednesday or Thursday that had USC minus three. And I hammered the minus three because I knew that it was going to go up. So I could cash that out right now too. If I wanted, I don't want to at this moment. I'm taking USC minus five on the podcast. I'm definitely rolling with USC minus three on my DraftKings app. So yeah. Oh yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Always looking out for the early lines, man. So I was looking for Michigan, Minnesota early lines today actually and there aren't any to no one's surprise. But that's just how much of a college football freak I am. So yeah. So there's our picks for the week. We have one different pick this week, dude. It's that Houston Cincinnati game. So we'll see. This is just like last week. Just like last week. Didn't we just have one pick last week that was different and everything else was the same. I think that was two weeks ago because last week we had Florida state different. We had Indiana different. You're right. Yeah. But yeah. So it all hinges on that game for who comes out on top in week four. But before we wrap up, really quick eliminator challenge. Kellan, who you picking in the eliminator? I'm going to go with Maryland over Villanova. I considered Indiana in this box. They were 28 and a half point dog in Charlotte. But I think this is probably one of the last times we're going to be able to take Maryland against Villanova 17 and a half point dogs. I think that they probably have a little bit. They should be able to win and probably cover that spread. So I'm going to take Maryland. Yeah, I am. I'm with you. I for the second week in a row, we chose the same team here on the eliminator. I'm taking Maryland against Villanova. ESPN FBI has Maryland is a 95.2% chance to win. Villanova is undefeated, but their three wins have been to Youngstown State by seven. And one of their other wins was to Townsend by one single point. So yeah, Maryland should be able to roll in this one. And we should be able to advance. Hopefully fingers crossed in this eliminator challenge. So that is it for the pick and podcast this week. Thank you so much for listening. And as always, you can follow me on Twitter. I'm on underscore lows on follow Kellan on Twitter at Kellan underscore underscore loss. That's two underscores and give me some brew follow on Facebook, Twitter, all that good stuff. Instagram as well. And be sure to read our content on masonbrew.com as well. Kellan's got some good stuff cooking up keys. Oh, hey, the basketball season is right around the corner too. Don't forget about that. That's right. There tends to be a trend here with Michigan Athletics. When the football team's down, the basketball team's up. I'm just saying, let's just let Dusty Cook. I'm just saying, but yeah, it should be a fun one man. Check out masonbrew.com still the best place on the Internet to get free Michigan content. Absolutely. Absolutely. So thank you, Kellan. And thank you all for listening out there. We will be back next week with another edition of the pick them podcast.