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(upbeat music) (upbeat music) - Here we go, here we go. - All right, welcome into a maze and froo six pack. I'm Jared Stormer from the block and podcast network and mazinbrue.com. But with me as always is my hetero life mate and podcast savant, Andrew Bailey Andy. How the hell are you my friend? - I am well, sir. Feeling good, you know what I mean? Kind of built the spirits back up after last week's win and just been building on it ever since. How are you? - I'm great, man. I'm just happy to be in the best sports time of the year. It gets even better. We've got the month of October coming, which is unassailable the best month of football just in general, we'll have the NBA back. The Tigers are making a late post season. - I love how in you are on the Tigers right now. I love this energy. - I'm in, I'm in. I mean, why not? I'm in on all Detroit sports, baby. Lions, Pistons, Tigers, give it all to me. But we've got ourselves an absolute epic barn burner this weekend in the big house. It is Michigan USC USC's first true road game as a big 10 opponent, first big 10 opponent that they'll face coming across the country to the big house, not exactly an easy task for them, but it's a very, very interesting matchup. So let's get into this, my friend. I believe you have a rant you wanted to start us off with and I give you the floor. - So yeah, I was just a little irritated this morning listening to Joel Klatt just dump on our defense and it was just kind of singling out how much Michigan blitzes. And I was like, I've watched these games. It doesn't feel like we're blitzing that much. Like I've heard numbers floated between 48 and 52%, I'm like, in one of every two players, are we blitzing? Now, maybe it depends on how you're classifying blitz. So whether that's more than four people, which would qualify a bear front as a blitz, which is weird, or maybe it's more than not using the defensive line, using other players, which I mean, I guess sim pressures aren't a thing. So diving into the numbers of last week, just with the first nine possessions, Michigan blitz, if you wanna like put it on a high end, it was still under 30% of the time. Like, this isn't a Don Brown style defense. And I think that's what he was kind of getting at without not saying it. And was just pointing it like, look at this, look at this, look at this, like, that's not the problem. Perhaps it's our fault that we hype this defense up so much. And we didn't discuss the fact that they had five new players in the back seven, they had to bump Mason Graham and Kenneth Grant up from 25 to 30 snaps a game to 50. And they had to do the same thing for the edges, except a little bit more, put more in Will Johnson's plate as well. I think that's the real issue. And that's why it's taking them some time to gel. But they're trending in the right direction. And this week against USC, bringing it full circle is gonna be a great litmus test where they're at. - Well said, sir, that was positively tame. You were like snarling a little bit off air. You were ready to go, but got it out of your system. And Joel Klatt generally won of the better minds. So I mean, I should will forgive him for this. I have to agree with you though, just, and I didn't do the numbers. You actually did the numbers and did the deep dive and did the work, so kudos to you. But just on watching it, it didn't really appear to me that that was the problem. I didn't get the impression that it was just over blitzing. And that was like the summation of what's going on with this Michigan defense. It's much more complicated than that. Felt assignment based, there's certain instances where you can really pick out one or two guys that have missed an assignment or communication on some certain ones. And then other times where it's effort based, we were pretty hard on Kenneth Grant up until last week. So let's get into this particular matchup. So that's a good place to start though, 'cause I think their offense versus our defense is probably the matchup to watch. This is a Lincoln Riley offense. We know his prowess with quarterbacks. They've got great wide receivers. We expected them to have a good offense. We expected us to have a great defense. So I think that's probably what everyone's gonna be watching. Is it necessarily where this game will be decided? I don't know, we'll get into that. But what have you seen from this USC offense? They've only played two games versus LSU and versus Utah State. But what have you seen so far? What do you think their strengths are? - So USC's a past heavy team, but they do wanna run the football to set up easy throws for Miller Moss. And Moss is good. I mean, he plays within the system. He's very composed. He's not a super big risk taker. He'll throw some 50/50 balls. But when you have the receivers, he does. They're not really 50/50 balls. He's just kind of very calculated with the risks he takes. Behind him, Mississippi State transfer, running back Woody Marks, that's a name. He is a stud. He's a leading rusher right now. And actually they have three running backs averaging over 4.9 yards per clip. However, against LSU, they only rushed for 69 yards, nice, at three yards a clip. I mean, for comparison, Nickl State rushed for 1.50 against LSU and South Carolina for 2.43. So while you look at their initial numbers, you think there'd be more of a running powerhouse against competition on or near their level, they tend to struggle a little bit. And that kind of backed their offense and slowed it down for a lot of the game. Yeah, Miller Moss on the season, 607 yards, two touchdowns, completing at about a 73% clip. Very impressive. I think he's, you mentioned a smart quarterback. I think he's a pretty accurate quarterback. He said there were some 50/50 balls. That could be true. LSU, maybe not also the opponent we thought they were. I've slowly kind of been out the back door selling some of my Brian Kelly stock, like not making big waves about it. But every now and again, I'm like, here, take a little bit of this for Christmas. So like, we'll see exactly how good LSU was. It's possible LSU's closer to the middle of the SEC. And if that's the case, that's a pretty telling performance. And maybe it's not the Heisman worthy performance that some people were billing it as early 'cause as of right now, both viewers and Miller Moss in the Heisman conversation, Heisman conversation in week three didn't really mean much, but they are names that are being thrown around. So I mean, just goes to show what this defense has to face early on with two of the best quarterbacks in the country, like where they are as far as their rankings and how good Miller Moss actually is will be determined. But yeah, past heavy attack, that's been running the ball well against us though. I'm very interested to see how their run blocking translates against a defensive line. That is like you mentioned trending in the right direction. Yeah, USC's offensive line in a film study, they're big, but I'm not sure how improved they are. Like there's still some issues, some growing pains, just Michigan fans can attest we're well versed to watching that. So I'm really fascinated to see that battle in the trenches because I feel confident that Michigan can take away the run, but I'm worried about our linebackers against this RPO heavy scheme. Yeah, I would have to agree with you there. I am not concerned about USC running wild on Michigan. Now they're gonna have to run the ball to keep a balanced attack and just keep that backfield somewhat clean for Miller Moss. I'm not sure Miller Moss is quite the scrambler or the guy that can throw on the run like Evers is. I haven't seen that at least. And he's only six, one, 205 pounds. So you don't want him taking a ton of hits. Like Kenneth Grant hits you a couple times at that size. You're gonna notice it for sure. So we'll see how mobile he is, how he's able to move in the pocket against what I imagine, blitz or not, there's gonna be pressure in his face in this game. So they're gonna try and stay balanced, but that is one matchup I really feel good about for the Michigan Wolverines is that defensive lines ability to slow down their running attack and make them somewhat one dimensional. The Miller Moss point though, that we didn't quite touch on was the receivers. You mentioned it briefly, but their receiver group could be one of the better ones in the country. So like that aspect of it in Michigan secondary against those receivers will also be fascinating. Yeah, Tiden Lake McCree fantastic name is their leading receiver at the moment. He's really solid, but I think Kyron where Hudson is their best natural receiver. I think that'll be Will Johnson's primary assignment in this one and Zachariah Branch, their kick return or punt return or specialist. They'd be getting him more involved in the offense. Will be the most electric player Michigan faces, maybe all season, but at least until Ohio State. These guys just bring a lot to the table to really support their quarterback that we have to keep in mind. This is Miller Moss's first true road game of his career. Very important point. Yeah, absolutely. So like, what's going to give here? Something else that I wanted to bring up, we were kind of talking about the Texas game and their ability to move the ball, particularly on third downs. Like I am, that is the down that Michigan has to improve upon currently 100th in the country. Not a third down. Not a third down defense. There's only a hundred and twenty five, hundred twenty four teams. A hundred thirty four. Excuse me. How dare you? Well, you know, you can have those extra 12 spots. It is not, it is not great. It is not great on third down. So like, what is Miller Moss able to do in your third and fives, third and sevens? 'Cause I think that they will face a good amount of those. I think Michigan's going to face a good amount of those in this one. So like, what is Miller Moss able to do on third and seven? That's where you got to imagine Lake McCree is going to be the intended target. So like these linebackers, the nickels, like they're going to have their hands full in this one. Yeah, they just have to be assignment sound in this game. They just can't be making the same mistakes, the over pursuit because Lincoln Riley is too smart of a play caller. And he's just going to see those and he's going to try to exploit them early. So like, when you're blitzing, know who you have or when you're rushing, you have to stay in your lane. You just have to be very smart and savvy on defense in this one, just assignment sound. And I think they'll be able to hold their own. Yeah, I agree with you there. Anything else on the USC offense versus the Michigan defense? No, it's flip the sides of the ball. Let's flip the sides of the ball, the Michigan offense versus the USC defense. Well, I think that everyone's showing up to the other matchup. This matchup is actually maybe more intriguing to me just because like I have a pretty good idea of what to expect from the Michigan defense. I know I gave that third down number, which isn't great, but I saw enough last week and enough against Texas knowing like that we got a lot of new bodies in there to give me some confidence. It's on this side of the ball. It's on the offensive side of the ball against the very improved USC defense led by D'Anton Lynn who comes from the Wink Martindale School. And you will be running a very similar scheme to what we run at Michigan. I do think that this is an instance where like they have an improving defense and we have a kind of listless offense. So here's a place where they may have an advantage unless a couple things happen, which we'll get into. Yeah, my question for USC is their defense is improved, but by how much? They were better timely than good against LSU forcing a late interception in that comeback, but they also gave up 421 yards of offense. LSU averaged more yards per carry against USC than they did against Nickel State or South Carolina. So it's like, I think we're just big picturing it too early with the defense. Be like, oh, they're improved. Write it down, mark it off. And it's like, they could be better, but I still think it's more marginal than people are realizing at the moment. They are improved. I don't really have any issues with that. Who was it? That said they were the most improved unit in the country. That's pretty blasphemous. Like that's out of control. I definitely don't agree with that. I mean, the Nebraska offense, the Tennessee defense, I could like just off the top of my head and name some units that are more improved. Also, USC's only played two games. And I have no idea how good LSU is. Like I said, I'm selling Brian Kelly stock. And I'm shuffling out the back door. Brian Kelly's about as likable as a SARS outbreak as an orphanage, like I don't know like that we should be putting all of that stock in that game. So you're right to push back there. We will see just how good the USC defense is. But I'm not sure that this is the week that we see it. Because they're probably, in all likelihood, going to see an attack most usually run by a service academy. Yeah, they are. And it's going to be fascinating to watch because it's so unorthodox, like in approach, like kind of have to change everything in preparation for Matt liner who was on a pod this week was just kind of talking about the fear level of that though. Like a team that's not afraid to run it 30 straight times at you. Like how will USC's defensive line hold up? Because I think there are a lot of questions there on the front and what they're going to do. And that's one thing we've seen Michigan's offensive line do well at least is run block. Like pass bro, that's entirely different thing. We will we'll we'll see how that goes. We're not there's not going to be a lot of passes in this game. No, but they can't run block pretty well. What do you think over under for passes thrown by orgy is in this game? Is it like seven and a half? It's going to be a small number. I think it's got to be 10. Like I think it's got to be like 10 to 15. You have to keep them honest and like maybe some of those are just screens or passes that count as laterals, things like that just to get the ball out quick. But it's like get those under your belt and move the ball a little bit just to create the defense go inside to side a little bit. And I think that'll help the power running. You'd also probably like to see one deep shot per half at least just a quarter per quarter might even be better. So you got those four and then another. Yeah, over over 10 passes, I think you're right. Like maybe 10, 11, 12, something like that feels right. Make it easy on him. And those deep deep balls are usually pretty good ones to dial up because it's either your guy or nobody with somebody with an arm like orgy Tyler Turner in the comments wants us to reassure him that Alex Orgy is him. Andy, are you willing to make that statement? So my thing, man, is Orgy's going to have to make five big time throws to win this game. But when I say big time, they don't have to be difficult throws. If Michigan's able to establish the run and bait those safeties in to be a little bit aggressive, that's going to open up post. That's going to open up stuff where you can just put the ball in a spot and have somebody hopefully run to it. But we're going to need five of those in this game. If he hits those five, Tyler, maybe he is him. Maybe maybe he is him. He certainly is him on the ground. I've seen enough there to be like, yeah, this guy on the ground is special. There is no question about that when they're doing read options and stuff like that. If it's there, he's got to pull it. There was I think only one example last week where he should have pulled it and instead gave it off to Mullings. I think it was like it's a small sample size, but he's got to get that right. And this game, like if the debt defensive end crashes down, like he needs to know when to pull it and when to hand it off, that's going to be imperative. So like play smart, when you have those kind of options, do not turn the ball over. That's what got Davis already benched. So like that is going to be a little bit more on the play callers too. Like I can't imagine that there's going to be a lot of passes dialed up that are like intermediate touch passes or timing patterns or stuff to like the far hash that require like back shoulder throws or anything complicated like that it's just not going to be on the docket. No, we weren't seeing those with Davis Warren to be fair. Like we were seeing a few throws. We weren't seeing those like with Orgy, you really need to accentuate his strengths and be creative. Like add a read to every run. So like instead of just duo, have duo read, have split zone read, have bluff zone, like it sets up everything for him, but you have to play to his strength. This would be such a fun game to play design if you're a nerd like me, just because you're going to have to get creative, but you can also set up some easy throws. Like make every throw two reads, if it's not there, take off and run, get a couple yards. RPOs, look quick, throw it, keep it moving. Like there are ways to win this game with him without without turning him into John Elway or trying to make him something he's not. And it's going to be fascinating to watch. Like this is if Michigan wins, it's going to be because of Orgy, I believe, but it'll also be because of Kurt Campbell. - Yeah, Kurt Campbell's got to have his best day. He's got to keep improving and growing as a play caller. I completely agree. Let's talk about the running backs in this one where Colel Mullings has kind of turned the corner into RB1, at least in name, you know, that the carries still being pretty evenly split for the most part. Is there one back that you would favor in this matchup? Is there like a style or maybe like a stylistic approach or are we just running the ball 65 times and it's all hands on Beck? - I think the latter, I think we're going to run in a ton, we're going to mix and match. Like Kurt Campbell's best series of the year was with Orgy in the game last week. So it's like, he's well suited for this. I think you're going to see a lot of looks with Colel, Orgy, and Donovan in the backfield. And then you're going to do some crazy stuff with that because you could have Donovan flare out and then you could have him read the edge and then he can either hand it off, run himself or throw it to Donovan. You turn that into a triple option like that. So there's a lot of things they can do in this, but I think it's going to be all hands on deck. I think you're going to see Ben Hall involved in this. Jordan Marshall's being ranked up or he'd be involved in it too. So I mean, it's going to be a lot of people out of the rock in this. - Yeah, the linebackers for USC may want to go ahead and get in the ice bath early. It's going to be a long day for them. Like, now the question is with that, can they move the ball enough? I think that with all the running backs averaging well over four point, whatever yards per carry, Mullings is averaging. God, what's Mullings? He's at like 10 yards per carry on the season or something ridiculous. I don't have it in front of me right now. So I mean, they're going to have to stop this rushing attack, but also Michigan's going to have to get some explosives in this one. They're going to have to get some plays greater than 20 yards, ideally greater than 30 yards. And just based on what we're discussing, we don't necessarily think that's going to be through the air. So that means it has to be on the ground. So I look at Donovan Edwards. I'm not giving up my stock. I refuse to give up on Donovan Edwards. He is probably your best chance in this game for like a breakaway touchdown, which I think if we get one breakaway touchdown, I think our offense can at least get into the end zone once on its own merits, get another breakaway in there and maybe a special teams play. I think that that's the kind of formula to beat this USC team. Like getting into the end zone once and then a bunch of field goals, which I could easily see, is not the recipe. You've got to find a way to get paid or like including like some complicated red zone offense, potentially against like when that box starts to shrink and the field starts to shrink, what are you able to do down in the red zone once you do move it down there with this rushing attack? This is a race to 20 points. First team to get to 20 points is going to win this game. I feel very confident in that because Michigan's offense gets there, plays with the lead. Oh, it's going to be so hard to come back on. But if USC gets to 20 points first, this Michigan team cannot play from behind. Like there's just no way to put it. When we saw Kurt Campbell panic getting behind, we can't have Orgy back. They're throwing 25 30 times in the game. That's just a recipe for disaster. So I think it's first to 20. I think those explosive are going to play a big impact like you said, particularly if Colston Lovelin's not able to go in this game. Our best offensive player, but he's out. No, no, no, no, I said out. I was like, no, I mean, like you said last week though, at least it's at the tight end position. We've already seen two other people emerge there that can catch the ball well. That can catch the ball. But if we're running the ball 65 times, Lovelin's also the best blocker. Well, but Max Bredesen, but like an excellent blocker at tight end. Yeah, yeah, it's not as bad as losing like other positions, but like still losing an NFL caliber tight end is not a good thing in this game. It's never sweet. It never what you want. Like to lose your best, your best receiving option. One of your best blockers, team leader. Yeah, first round draft pick, all of that. Not great. I think you and I said on our podcast that he's like a one and a half point to the spread kind of guy either way. Like if he plays, it literally changes the spread because he's that good. That being said, we're only predicting about 11 to 12 passes. So maybe it matters more that he's not out there as a blocker. Hopefully he can go and this is a moot point here. As far as our receivers, they've they're maybe the group, even above offensive line, which we'll get to here in a second. They're maybe the group that needs to improve the most in one week. Is this wide receiver group? Like somebody's got to make a play for their quarterback in this game. When you need meal time inspiration, it's worth shopping Kroger for thousands of appetizing ingredients that inspire countless mouth-watering meals. And no matter what tasty choice you make, you'll enjoy our everyday low prices, plus extra ways to save. Like digital coupons worth over $600 each week and up to $1 off per gallon at the pump with points. So you can get big flavors and big savings. Kroger, fresh for everyone, fuel restrictions apply. - Someone passed the step up. It's been interesting because I thought Kendrick Bell and CJ Charleston played really well last week, especially blocking on the perimeter. Both are getting after it. Tyler Morris is slowly sliding down the depth chart, just being phased out a little bit. They try to get a Mario and Walker involved on some deep shots last week. That didn't hit. We'll see if they take a swing in this one. Saw Frederick Moore kind of get going a little bit. So at least some options are starting to arise because for a while, I mean against Texas, damn, that was bleak. I mean, it was Samaj Morgan just doing a little bit at the end of the game, but like throughout it was just very much a bummer. So glad to see some guys starting to rise up, but we need somebody to take over that number one spot because I think you could survey 10 Michigan fans who the best receiver on this team is and possibly get seven, seven, eight different answers. - It's entirely possible. Like I know that you're still holding out for the banshee, Peyton O'Leary. You might be the one to answer the number seven there. - Getting more run than Tyler Morris right now. - That's bizarre, but yeah, somebody's got to step up, make a play for their quarterback, blocking as receivers, blocking downfield. Maybe that's something that could help spring that big one for Donovan or Benjamin Hall or even Mullings. Like Mullings has got some giddy up in his step too. So whoever it is. - Looks a little faster. - Yeah, yeah, he did. Yeah, CJ Charles didn't even, I don't care. There's going to be some attempts downfield. Three, four, it was kind of the number we were throwing out there. Do the Jalen Millrow approach where, you know, either our guy catches it or nobody does, this thing's going deep down the field. Let's talk about the offensive line and then we'll get into kind of some confidence ranking and our preview or our predictions and players of the game. Offensive line in this one, I really just think it comes down to, can our run blocking be solid enough throughout the entire game? Avoid penalties in order to get into the end zone three times. Like I don't think it's that complicated because we're going to be running the ball so often. - Honestly, it feeds into the strengths of the offensive line because we saw the run blocking improve the last couple of weeks. Pass Pro is still a work in progress. Like getting all these reps together, run blocking as well. I mean, if we run the ball 40, 50 times in this game, like that is just going to be such a boost moving forward as well. It's like you can't, there's no substitute for that kind of experience. So that's a great thing. Like if you put a quarterback that's just going to throw the ball back there, like you know, you get the balance and everything else. Like in terms of offensive line, like, I'm glad we're leaning into that strength at least instead of just having a complete passing attack to where you got to learn on the fly and we can't run the football at all. 'Cause that would just spiral out of control. - Completely agree. Who do you think we see run out there? Any changes to personnel? - For the love of God, can we start Greg Crippen at center? - Crippen minutes, come on now. - Please, like with gentry, he stole out there. He was good as the extra offensive line. Then like, I'm sorry, we still have to deal with some Evan Link reps. But like, as a run blocker, not that bad. Not that bad. Pass Pro, but Crippen, please. Just give us a leader out there. Just, let's stop the dog and get these things. It's not gonna happen. - Yeah, I could not believe when he said, "Actually, good deese graded out better." And I was like, "What's your scale?" Showed to me. - Who'd have bashed my head through? If he grades out better and he started all three games, why are we still having the competition then? - Yeah, right. And then why did we put Crippen in? And Crippen, like, I mean, I don't know if Crippen individually did better. I couldn't tell the hand placement and like the timing. - Yeah, couldn't be on the lars out. (laughing) - Great reference. - I think he just brings the experience, the communication, the leadership that you kind of need that glue to bring the guys together. And I just like the reps he's seen there instead of a converted defensive lineman. - I have to agree with you there. But in general, offensive line needs to improve, but the run blocking, like as we've said, has been, it's, I don't know if it's there, but it's been close. It's been really close to excellent or really close to great. I don't know about excellent. I don't know what my scale is either. - Excellent, great. It's somewhere in there. - I don't know. I'm just making this up as I go. Speaking of which, making it up as I go, I still have not made my prediction yet for this game. Like I don't know, we're gonna like talk it out here as we do this confidence ranking things. I think I know about what the score's going to be, but like I still haven't made my pick. I don't know that I've ever gone back and forth on a matchup like this. It's an extremely difficult matchup to figure out because of all the moving pieces. And like the fact that Michigan's starting a quarterback we've never seen started a game and like jockeying pieces around on the offensive line and trying to get an identity running the ball and play calling. And like their third down defense has been atrocious, but that shouldn't be real. So it's been extremely difficult to predict this game. So let's do a little confidence ranking. I'm gonna give you an aspect to this game and you're gonna give me your level of confidence. One being, oh my God, two, 10 being, I am completely steadfast, I believe in this thing. - No, okay. - Pretty simple. All right, you ready? - Yep. - All right, the Michigan run blocking. - Seven, seven. - Yeah, it feels about, right? - Seven or eight. - It's trending in that direction. I'd say it's like soft seven right now. - Yeah, soft seven, I like that. So like it's like a C, C plus kind of is about where it's, I think that that's about right. All right, Miller Moss is an NFL quarterback at least as a decent backup. - Five. - Just too early. - It's way too early. He doesn't have the frame in the middle. It's too early. - It's way too early, he doesn't have the frame in this offense, it's like, yeah, we'll see. - Yeah, good college quarterback. I'll get a little bit more on board with that, but yep, all right, I'm with you there. All right, confidence in Alex Orgy touch passes. - Two, out of respect, I'll give him a two. Like I really wanna say like point five, but we'll say two for touch passes. - We're not dealing in decimals on this podcast. So yeah, two does feel a little generous 'cause we have never seen one, but sure, we'll give it a bit too. D.M. to Lynn's defense. - At USC or just as defensive philosophy in general? - The one that he has currently at USC. - Ah! - I, six. Like I think they're better. It's just like, it just, they're so, it just remains to be seen, man. Like we don't know enough. And like if your hallmark card is, we only allowed 20 points and 400 yards of offense to LSU, that's really not selling me that much. It's pretty whack hallmark card, I agree. And just like, I'm looking at it. I'm like, where is their defense in regards to some of the rest of the big 10? I'm like, I would definitely take Nebraska's, Iowa's, R's, Ohio State's. Would you take Illinois? - Yeah. - Minnesota? - Yeah. - So I mean, this is actually like lower half Penn State? - Yeah. - Well, it's like-- - Oregon. - Because that's where I got a little dice here. It's like, with Minnesota, it's like that one probably stood out to some people, but it's just because-- - It's a good defense. - They don't have a lot of offensive support. And that really factors into a defense as Michigan fans are learning this year. So I think that plays a factor, but like, no, I haven't seen it against like a top tier opponent, like without nine months to prepare. So it's like, until I see him do it against the big boy, and this isn't the big boy, then I'm not gonna buy it. - Completely agree. All right, let's keep it going here, confidence ranking. Confidence ranking in Michigan's big play ability. - Oh, three. - Yeah, it's low. It's low. Like this is the one, this is why I've been harping on it so much. Like with this offense, you've gotta find a way to get some explosives in there. And yeah, and that three, that's, I would have to agree. I can't put it much higher than that. Michigan third down defense, as we mentioned, ranked 100th in the country, a little skewed, that's mostly all Texas, but-- - Yeah, I'm a six. I'm still on the positive side of this thing. Like, I think it'll turn around the Texas numbers, obviously swing a lot of things, but I think that's a number we're gonna see balance out. Like in the Arkansas state game, after giving up a few on the first drive, some due to penalties, they didn't give up another until half or through the third quarter. So like they can batten down the hatches. - Six feels about right. Basically saying you're more confident than 50/50 that this defense will get it figured out and be at least like a top 25 third down defense. Like it'll swing back. - It should swing back, yeah. - It should swing back. All right, confidence in Jair Hill covering either Zachary Branch or Kyron Hudson. - You know, I'm coin flip. Give me five. I'm right in the middle, man. I put him in my film study this week as he got my superlative. It's his first day on Wall Street. Give him time. What I liked about Jair Hill's game was he made mistakes and then he was putting the same situation later in the game and didn't make the same mistake. That growth to me gives me a ton of optimism and what he can do. And I'm gonna keep riding that, man. So like he's a five right now, but like I could even be low ball in that. - I like Jair Hill. I've made no bones about it. And like you've got the skill that you need to have to start out in the cornerback position. That's be able to stick to your man. A lot of the things that he needs to learn are between the ears. Like to see him be a little bit more willing of a tackler, but there have been some instances where it's not like he's a versed to tackling. It's like he's out of position or didn't know like where he was supposed to go. - 100% dude, like on the third down when Quentin Johnson got the late hit out of bounds. If Jair Hill sets that edge, that play dies. But like he let the guy get around him. So they tried the same action in the second half and what Jair Hill do, he set that edge perfectly and it was gain a three. Like that's the stuff and you nailed it. - Glad to hear you coming back aboard, baby. That's one of my guys. All right, let's keep it pushing your confidence in the Michigan offense on third and five or longer against USC. - Third, five or longer? Oh God. I'm free. It's just that you can't be there. You gotta be third and five or less. Like third and long is gonna be a death sentence. - Yeah, even third and five. 'Cause I mean, like we said, we got these Michigan backs that are averaging about five yards per carry, but then you know that the run is coming, makes it a lot easier. And for the most part, USC's probably just gonna assume the run is coming every single time in this game. That would probably be a pretty safe way to play this game. But yeah, on third down, I think that's in particular, third downs in general in this game. Massive, massive, massive, massive. Last one, USC's ability to run the ball on Michigan, let's end with a positive. - Oh, you knew this was setting me up. - Up two, like the 69 yards against LSU wasn't inspiring. I think this Michigan front's gonna be out to make, make a statement after kind of getting handled against Texas. And I think the Kenneth Grant re-emergence is welcomed at this time. Not to mention Ika Wanna, who played a hell of a game last week. Like on rewall, he is all over the place. So now you have he, Rachon, Benny, and Enoeta kind of getting in the mix. So you're building that depth. And like I said at the top, this is the defense I think is going to get better throughout the year while they have some growing pain. So I think they're gonna stifle this run, man. - I think for the most part, they will too. I'll go a little higher, I'll go four just 'cause I need the edges to play a little bit better and then them and run support and as well as rushing the passer, so, but I'm with you. I don't think that this is gonna be an over 100 yards rushing game. Like, I'd be surprised if they got over that 69 yard mark that they got at LSU, I'd be very surprised. So I'm with you there. All right, my friend, it is time. I need to get off the fence and make a prediction here. Let's do predictions and players of the game. I'm gonna let you go first. - I am, oh, let me do the offense first and then you can do offense and then I'll do defense and we'll build it into this. I got a lot to say. Offensively, three keys to the game. Very similar to Cobra Kai, strike first, strike hard. This team can not play from behind and we gotta get after 'em. Number two, no turnovers. Play clean, that is something this team has not done all season. They've progressively gotten worse at turning the ball over. So just play zero, zero, don't even have to be plus. Just zero, zero in turnovers and that's a huge win for this offense. And last key for me, offensively, help the quarterback out. Everyone knows the situation. Receivers, put a little more polish on your runs, a little more run blocking on the parameters. Anything you can to help this guy out and put him in positions to succeed, it's his first career start. (whistles) - Hey, it's Kaylee Cuoco for Priceline. Ready to go to your happy place for a happy price? Well, why didn't you say so? Just download the Priceline app right now and save up to 60% on hotels. So whether it's Cousin Kevin's Kazoo concert in Kansas City, go Kevin or Becky's Bachelor at Bash in Bermuda, you never have to miss a trip ever again. So download the Priceline app today. Your savings are waiting. Go to your happy place for a happy price. Got your happy price, Priceline. - Well said, sir, on offense, I'll say explosive plays. Two or more, gotta find a way to get him in here. Ideally, explosive plays that get into the end zone. I think that things are gonna get really difficult for this team when they get down into the red zone. That's a little bit based on more our offense than what I've seen with USC's defense, but I could see that being a struggle. So you gotta get some explosives in there. Number two, third downs. Third downs are going to be huge. Be in third and three, not in third and five. I know that seems like a small difference. It's a huge difference for what Michigan's trying to do, most likely against this USC team. Number three, decision-making by Alex Orgy, you mentioned that, but I'll spin it a little bit. I'll say on like three options and stuff. If there's a lane there, get out and run dude. Like that's what you do. I wanna see it, man. Like that part about like the Orgy thing, and I think we've been more on the negative side. Like he's a beast when he gets out and running, man. Like when you get that kind of the open field, he's as dangerous as anyone. And I personally would love to see it. So yeah, man, don't be afraid to use those getaway sticks. - You got him, play to your strengths. Defensively, Michigan needs to stop the run and play fundamentally sound. Lincoln Riley will test assignments and test corners with her heads not tracking the ball. You can bet on that. It'll be pivotal to create havoc and forced USC to play at Michigan's tempo. Hopefully this will lead to turnovers, more offensive possessions, and more opportunities to drain the clock. So to pare it down even further, no big plays. It's time for stars to be stars. It starts with Mason Graham, it starts with Will Johnson. Those guys need to take over this game. Number two, win first down. You can't let USC get in second short. They will just eat us up with RPOs and everything else. And then you're playing in Lincoln Riley's game, and that's not gonna be fun. Number three, make Miller Moss hesitate. This is his first career road start. First time with the noise being that loud. Cover in the ears, here in the play, dealing with the fans. If corners can just hold coverage a little bit longer, that gives the edges and pass rush a little bit more time to get there. Just make him hesitate and think. He plays so well in structure, force him out of structure, and then see if he can make a play. - Well done, God, good at what you do. I love it. I already mentioned it, man. Third down, both sides of the ball. So I'll start there. On third down, we are number 100 in the country. Got to improve. Got to get them off the field. So conversely, have them in third and five and longer. So stopping them on early downs is going to be huge. How do you do that? That's gonna be stopping this passing attack. I think pressure up the middle from Grant and Graham. Again, you already mentioned them, but against the run, I'll say against the pass. Can we start to get a little bit more pushing that pocket backwards? Make him throw on the run and off schedule. We haven't really seen that from Miller Moss. In a clean pocket, he's pretty accurate, man. Like that's a pretty good quarterback. So make that pocket, dirty it up, mess it up back there, run them into your really speedy edges, where I think we'll be able to get off blocks, particularly if he's rolling out to either side there. And then whoever is not Will Johnson in coverage. Whether that's a mirror hall, gyre hill, whether that's McBurrow's back there, Zeke Berry. Whoever it is, 'cause I think Will Johnson is going to do Will Johnson things and shut down whoever he is on and basically half of the field. But Miller Moss can get to his second and third checkdowns. Like this isn't like a Davis Warren, who's basically first read and if that's not there, oh boy. This guy can get to his second third, sometimes even fourth read. So everybody's going to have to stay locked in long enough to let our guys get some pressure on him. And then the penalties. The penalties, the penalties, the penalties. It's been on both sides of the ball, but Michigan not usually, this penalized against Arkansas state, those crucial penalties that kept that opening drive going. Didn't end up meaning anything crucial to me and my heart and my belief in this defense. I didn't like it, I don't want to see it. So yeah, man, stars got to be stars. I love that one from you. I think that they're starting to tread in that direction. So completely with you, linebacker play is going to be huge in this game. Lake McCree, their tight end is going to be a safety valve for Miller Moss. So yeah, pass coverage, pressure. Man, I'm excited. It's a fun matchup. It's a fun matchup to get their first time in the Big Ten, traveling to the Big House, blue blood programs. I'm less excited than I was for Texas because that took some of it out of me, but the closer we get to this, man, the more I'm like, man, this is a fun matchup. It's a better matchup than Texas. Like that Texas matchup, when I started to really dig into it before that game, I'm like, I can't predict Michigan to win this. This is a little different here. So let's get into our predictions. I think I'm ready. There was a game a few years ago where Michigan had 21st downs, the opponent had 19. Michigan had 44 passing yards, the opponent had 293. Michigan had 343 rushing yards on 56 attempts, and the opponent only had 50 rushing yards. Michigan won the turnover battle 1-0, and they won the total yards battle 3-87 to 3-43. I think you're gonna see a similar game plan and a similar approach. That game was 2021 against Washington. You gotta commit to running the football. You gotta have your identity. It's not gonna be 31-10. It's just not gonna be that way. This team is too smart in our offense. There's too many question marks, but that's how you do it. In that game, Michigan completed seven passes at less than three yards in attempt. (laughing) - I agree. - But they ran the ball for over six yards a carry. And again, carrying it 56 times, it's gonna pay dividends. That's gonna drain the clock. You gotta protect the football. Earlier this week, when I was down, I had USC taken at 24-14. I'm swinging back. I'm swinging back. Michigan gets in the end zone just enough. They take this one 27-24. It's very close. It's very tight. I think Dom Zavada, Dragon Ball Z is going to be a big difference in this one. Players of the game, Greg Crippen, finally give it to him. They get this run game going. And on the edge, give me Josiah Stewart. Make him plays and really just showing up after kind of getting washed out against Texas. Win by three. - Oof, I like it, man. Very similar. And we do not discuss this coming up. We do not discuss our predictions. This is like the first time we hear him. I went back and forth more than I've ever gone back and forth on a game. I was like trying to talk myself into it. I listened to a couple of podcasts. I watched some USC. I was like trying to figure out the way that I thought that this game would go. I think that this could be obviously a bit of a struggle on offense. So I'm predicting a little bit lower scoring than you are. But can Michigan get into the end zone three times? I think that'll be enough to win this game. I really do. I think that if they can get into the end zone three times, so that's one explosive play, that's one drive by the offense's own merit and then maybe a turnover in a good spot of the field. Or a pick six or a fumble scoop and score or a special team, something or ever. I agree with your Dragon Ball Z comments. I could just see a lot of these drives peering out, getting down there in the red zone and having that just be too tough of a mask. They can stack the box and they're not going to risk turning it over with Alex Orgy throwing it across the middle of the field. So you settle for quite a few field goals. So that being said, I'm going to go ahead and give Michigan 23 points. I think that you get in twice and then a bunch of field goals. So I don't necessarily know that they can do three times but I could see them getting in twice and then doing just enough getting down there. So I'm going to go 23 17 Michigan. I came back around to give the Michigan win and like this is a tough one. I think it is going to be a really close game. It's a fascinating matchup with where Michigan is at and where USC is at. USC is no doubt the more balanced team. The Michigan team has the far superior defense and a higher upside running the ball. We just haven't seen it yet. So I think you're going to see a stylistic change. Like what are we saying? The over under on rushing attempts is in this game 50. Yeah. I'm going to say 45. It's going to be it's going to be high. And like to everything, man, I I tend to pick games. I mean in favor of Michigan because it's what we're here. But also by the team that's going to win in the trenches. And the more I looked at USC and the more I watched, I'm like, I think I think we have the advantage on both sides. And that's what leaned me that way. So we kind of flipped it throughout the week. When in doubt, when in doubt, go with the trenches. Now they have the far superior quarterback. So that's like what I really have me think about. Like we don't even have a quarterback and they have one that's maybe an NFL backup or if nothing else, an extremely good big 10 quarterback. We don't have that. But also six, one, two hundred pounds. Like hit this guy, hit him, make life difficult on him. And like we'll see what he actually is. Cause as of right now, we just don't know. We don't really know what this Michigan team is yet. But after this game, I think we're going to know everything we need to know. This will be an elucidating experience. A lot of numbers that you and I have been throwing out both to each other and on this podcast. I think we'll know what those really mean. Like is this really the number one hundred third down defense in the country? I don't believe it. I don't believe that that's accurate. So things are going to really start to play out and we'll pretty much know what to expect for the rest of the season too. Cause if Michigan loses this, like it's not season over, but I think it might be playoffs over. - Yeah, I think so too. I think the playoffs are on the line in this game. And if you lose that you're looking at eight and four at the best. And I think if you win, I don't know if I could cap it because you talk about it. I'm steep get continuing to get better. It's like you see 11 10 wins. So a lot can change after this weekend. So I think they're at the play like that too. - Huge game, huge game kicking off. This is an afternoon kick, right? Which is better at three 30, better night. So, but it does kind of like chew up the middle of your day though. I'm not going to lie. - Yeah. And then like I was happy last week, at least with the Arkansas state game. We had that baby wrapped up kind of early for a football game. Like it was kind of nice. Like there were some games on last week that lasted like four hours. I was like, this is not it guys. This is not it. - Yeah. Come on. Now we're getting old now. We've got to get out and prune the gardens. We got some radishes to tend to. - Let's go to the grass. - It's got to do adult things. All right. - I'm saying I'm going to pay a mortgage here. Got stuff to do. All right, man. Anything else from you before we call it on this one, I'm excited. I'm excited for this game, man. This is like, this is the one where you figure out what we've got as far as a product. - Yeah. I can't wait, man. I'm equally terrified and excited to see what it is. Cause we know on the other side, we're going to know pretty much everything we need to know. - Absolutely, man. All right. Thanks for those of you that stopped in live. This podcast will go up as a podcast tonight on Thursday, the 19th. So we'll definitely be available on Friday and Saturday for you to get caught up for the game. If you're going to the game, be loud, have a hell of a time, I am envious. I'll be doing a live reaction on Bleacher Report immediately following the game. Andy and I's podcast out of the blue will drop next Tuesday. So make sure you check that out. Like, share, subscribe. And we appreciate you. And remember that wherever you go, go blue. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) - This episode is brought to you by Microsoft Azure. Turn your ideas into reality with an Azure free account. Get everything you need to develop apps across cloud and hybrid environments, scale workloads, create cloud-connected mobile experiences and so much more. Discover what you can create with popular services free for 12 months. Learn more at azure.com. That's azure.com and sign up for a free account to start building in the cloud today. (dramatic music)
