The Duran Podcast
Netanyahu Frustration, Middle East Conflict Delayed
All right, Alexander, let's talk about the situation in Lebanon with the pagers detonating. Actually, the first wave was pagers, about 3,000 pagers blew up and we had a second wave. The second wave, according to media reports, was walkie talkies, but I've read other reports which claim that other mobile devices were also affected mobile phones and iPads and stuff like that, tablets, stuff like that. I don't know how accurate that is, but pagers, first wave and definitely walkie talkies the second wave. A lot of talk about how this happened. Obviously, the allegations are that this was Masada Israel, even though they have not issued a statement. I think that's clear that they were behind this. Once again, they have not issued an official statement, but a lot of people are asking how this happened and why this happened, why now? A company in Taiwan who has claimed it was actually a company in Hungary that had the license from Taiwan and now we're finding out that this company in Hungary was nothing more than a shell company and there's a lot of speculation as to whether this was an explosive device or if this was batteries. Anyway, we're going to need some time to figure everything out. I don't think it's going to take long, but I imagine in the next couple of weeks, we'll figure out exactly the world. We'll figure out exactly what happened, but what are your thoughts on? Not only what happened, but I think the more important question that we can start to discuss is why now? Obviously, we're pushed towards a war, but let's get into it. Why now? I think how it happened, the actual mechanics of it, are important and eventually, it is important that we do find out because there's an awful lot of commentary and discussion about this, not just in the West, but in other places in the world as well. A lot of people are saying in China, I've been in touch with people in China, they've been telling me what's been said on social media there in Russia too, and I've seen things on the media in Russia as well, and in other places, India, wherever, which is saying that from now on, you're going to be very, very careful about the devices that you are using, they're not just capable of being used to survey you, they can also be used to kill you. So, I mean, that's perhaps a rather melodramatic you, because obviously, this was a targeted attempt by someone to go after some people that we mustn't perhaps go have to say, you know, be careful, could you buy for whatever. Yeah, but there's truth to that. But there is truth to it. There is truth. Yeah, there is truth to it also. And the Pandora's box has kind of been open. I mean, absolutely. Hasn't it? Absolutely. I think it has. I mean, from now on, people who do sensitive work, government officials, people who work in scientific laboratories, where perhaps they might be doing military things, all kinds of things of that kind are going to be encouraged to source their devices from approved places. And it's going to be much tighter security. And it may not be quite as, you know, the global market for these devices is now going to become more fractured. Now, I want to stress this is probably going to affect earlier, miniscule proportion of the market. But it's quite an important one. And this is being talked about. But anyway, let's not get sidetracked into this, let's not get sidetracked now at the moment is how it was done. I mean, I think the fact that it's a show company, the fact that Taiwan was involved, or perhaps not involved, or whatever, the key thing to say is this, this was a operation carried out on a very big scam. That means that he can only have been carried out by a large intelligence organization that, logically, in this part of the world, when we're talking about Hezbollah and attack on Hezbollah, that must have been carried out. I would have said by intelligence agencies connected to Israel, I mean, it make it biggest belief that it would have been anybody else. I can't imagine any other Arab state, for example, wanting to carry out an operation of this kind. Maybe some of the western countries might have known something about it. There's no evidence of this. The logical, obvious country to have carried out this operation on this kind of scale targeting this particular opponent was Israel. Now, that then leads us directly to the next, I mean, they're the prime suspect. And from this moment on, I get to proceed on this program as if it was them. I mean, I'm confident that it was. Now, let's move on and ask why this was done. And a number of people, I think, have made the entirely correct point that, you know, you do all of this. It disrupts, obviously, Hezbollah's communications network. It does so. It does so by killing a certain number of Hezbollah people. But we're talking about roughly a score. And so far as we know, nobody important, at least not up to now. So this doesn't make sense doing it now. The logical time to carry out an attack of this kind, in this kind of way, was during a military operation. So you infiltrate Hezbollah with these devices, these communications devices. There is then a wall, Hezbollah is relying on these devices during the fighting, and suddenly they start blowing up on them. And that would have thrown their entire organization into some kind of chaos, at least for a couple of hours, days, and that would have given their adversary, which, logically again, must be Israel, the time and the opportunity to make the use of this disorganization, in order to press home their attack. Now, this was done at a time when there was no attack underway. So that's going to give Hezbollah time. And remember, this is a efficient organization. Whatever you may think of Hezbollah, everybody acknowledges that they're very well organized. This is going to give them time to sort out their communications issues, get rid of these devices, put their communication system back on a solid basis, perhaps buying pages or whatever it is that they want to buy from whatever sources that they are confident now are secure. So why therefore do it now? Why not do it in conjunction with the military operation? Why do it prematurely in a way that will, in effect, negate its effectiveness? Well, there are two series floating around, one which basically comes from Israeli sources, which is that the Israelis got a tip off, that Hezbollah had itself detected the fact that these devices had been tampered with. And so the Israelis decided to activate the devices before Hezbollah dispensed with them because they'd gone to all this trouble and why not put the devices to some use? That is theory one. And then theory two, which has now been pushed by amongst others the financial times, and which is the one that I share, is that this was done as another in this unending series of provocations that the Netanyahu government has been doing over the last few months, going all the way back to the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus and the Hanir assassination in Tehran, they want to intensify the situation. They want to make the situation in the Middle East worse, they want to provoke Hezbollah and Iran into action that will give Prime Minister Netanyahu the war in the Middle East that he's clearly working towards. And I have to say that seems to me far and away the most likely explanation of why this was done. In other words, Netanyahu is frustrated because the Iranians have not yet strapped back over the Hanir assassination. He's supposedly been told that in a few weeks time, weather conditions in Lebanon, and by the way, in Iran, are going to make long range attacks, air attacks and drone attacks on positions in Lebanon and in Iran, both mountainous countries, much, much more difficult. He wants to start his operation now before the autumn closes in. He's trying to provoke Hezbollah. He's trying to provoke Iran. This is the latest provocation. There are rumours, by the way, that he wants to sack his defence minister, you have Galaan, because Galaan is opposed to this attempt to push for war. And those reports came independently of the news about these page of attacks. He's just made another speech talking about the need for Israel to conduct a military operation against Hezbollah. And there are reports this morning, which of course, I'm not in a position to confirm that an Israeli brigade has been moved to the Israel, Lebanon border, and that an attack on Hezbollah is in Lebanon. So it looks to me like, as I said, all of this is being done in order to prepare the grounds for the war. Hezbollah Iran know this. They know that they're trying to be provoked, and that's why they're not doing anything. That's why Iran has not retaliated. Imagine it's not the only reason. But that's one of the main reasons why Iran has not retaliated as quickly as so many people thought they would retaliate. So why doesn't Netanyahu just, I mean, he's not he's not working. The provocation is not working, obviously. And he's got a certain amount of time left before we get to winter and things get more difficult. So why doesn't he just move forward with with this conflict? Why does he need the provocation to happen? Why does he need to make it look as if Hezbollah or Iran is attacking Israel? I mean, is this for PR reasons for diplomacy reasons? Because even if he does just start a conflict, which is obviously what he wants, everyone acknowledges this is what he wants. It's not like he's going to lose any of the support from from the country that he needs to support from, which is which is the US. In other words, the US is not going to say, well, you know, you started this war, Netanyahu. So we're not going to support you. We were only going to support you if if Hezbollah strikes first or if Iran strikes first. I mean, that's not what the US is saying. So so why does he need this is the part that I'm not I'm not understanding. Why does he need the provocation? Right. For domestic reasons. Let's let's let's let's unpack all of this because these are really good questions. Now, the first thing I'm going to say is I mentioned this point about the weather conditions becoming more difficult in October as the autumn closes in and the weather and all that. I think a much much much more important factor in Netanyahu's timetable is the election of the United States. At the moment, he's got he's got a administration that is very weak, is not able to exercise effective restraints on him. And there's there was a report. So about two weeks ago, in the times of Israel, for example, that many American some American officials are becoming completely exasperated and fed up with Netanyahu, and that they had even been considering imposing personal sanctions on to Israeli ministers, Ben Gver and Smartrich, but the usual people in Washington push back against that. And in the end, it wasn't done. And anyway, the overall impression given by this article in the times of Israel is of a chaotic situation in Washington, curing a period of political transition with a president who is perhaps not fully engaged and of Netanyahu making the most of that. We have discussed this in previous programs. Now, in November, that time window starts to close because in November, one way or the other, we will get an at a result, which will point to who the next president is going to be. And that person, whichever it is, is going to start to weigh in more effectively or one would like to imagine more effectively on the diplomatic and political situation in the Middle East. So I think that this is the time window that Netanyahu has, he wants to get this operation up and running and going in the next six weeks, this ball going in the next six weeks. Why does he wants to get it to make it appear that the is the Iranians and Hezbollah that are involved in the military operation that they're taking the initiative in attacking Israel? I think there is an extremely simple and straightforward reason about this and that is that when the war comes, he doesn't want it to be a war just between Israel and Iran and Israel and Hezbollah. He wanted to be a war of the West against Iran and Hezbollah. What he wants to do, in other words, is to get the American, British, French and other militaries participating directly in the conflict. And we had a strong sign of this about two weeks ago when the foreign ministers of Britain, France and Germany met with the Israeli foreign minister, Mr. Clark Katz. And Katz then came out and made statements about how if there was a conflict in Iran, the British and French foreign ministers had told him that the British and French militaries would directly participate. They would actually be there assisting the Israelis in the conflict with Iran. Then after it's clearly after complaints from London and Paris, the readout that the Israeli Foreign Ministry published, walked back the statements that Katz had made verbally. But the fact that Katz was making those statements I think gives you a clear insight into what the Israelis are trying to do. I think Israel understands that if it comes to an all-out conflict with Iran, Israel alone is not strong enough to take on Iran. So they want the West, they want the West involved as well. And probably another factor that is causing them concern or at least Connecticut concern is that the US a couple of weeks ago, it was barely reported. You remember we discussed it briefly, it was barely reported at the time, moved to US carrier groups, to the Gulf of Oman, close to Iran, where they would have been ready to participate in a joint strike against Iran. The strike from Iran didn't happen, the US is now redeploying one of these carrier groups to the Pacific. And I think again this is probably caused Netanyahu concern because he senses that Western support is flagging that because there wasn't this Iranian attack at the top, when he expected that to be, the Americans don't want to keep their fleet tied up in the Middle East. And the result is that Netanyahu was seeing US military assets drifting away. So he launches this attack now on Hezbollah and he's hoping that this time something will bind. He wants something similar to Ukraine, where the European Union, the collective West, the United States, they say Iran started this war and that's why we're going to be involved, but he wants more than just the weapons deliveries and whatever the collective West has done for you, creating the mercenaries, the weapons deliveries, the satellites, imagery, all of the things that they provided to Ukraine, he actually wants the boots on the ground. I mean, from what I understand, he wants direct military involvement from France, from the UK, from the US, in a war with Iran. And he wants them to say Iran started this war, Hezbollah started this war. That is why we are directly going to war with Iran. That's his angle. I think so. And if you if you get follow some of the articles with the usual people in the media, both in the United States and in Britain, and I've seen just been reading one of these articles, you see again, in fact, the person who's written this one, the lake, the one I'm thinking about is one of the candidates for the leadership of the British Conservative Party. Anyway, they're already talking about the fact that Iran is this existential threat world to the West. And there's all the usual tropes about the fanatical leadership in Iran and how it's important to bring this under control before Iran takes the next fatal step, which will bring it closer to achieving its objectives. So you could see that, you know, it's all the ground is being prepared for that to happen. You mean nuclear weapons, weapons of mass destruction? Of course, it is nuclear weapons. Absolutely. And you can also see that, you know, the story is being spread, the big spread about how in return for ballistic missiles, the Russians are supposedly providing Iran with nuclear technology. Iran has enough uranium now enriched uranium to move forward and develop nuclear weapons. And now the Russians are supposed to be helping them to do that. By the way, that is, I don't believe that story at all. The Russians would never do a thing like this. They do not want to see nuclear weapons proliferate around the world. And why would Iran turn to the Russians? Well, by the way, they can get exactly the same. Now, how anti-technology from the North Koreans, who are longstanding friends of theirs, and who have none of the concerns about proliferation that the Russians do. But anyway, you can see all of these stories circulating. And of course, the Israeli, the Israelis have been very busy, or at least not the Israelis, Israelis themselves, but their various friends have been very busy talking up the story of the ballistic missiles that Iran is supplying to Russia. And all of this, all of this has been done to give you the impression that there is now this existential threat from Iran. Iran is on the brink again of obtaining nuclear weapons. The Russians are helping. We are in this extreme danger. This isn't dangerous, rogue, violent, fanatical regime. And for that reason, it's not just Israel's in danger, but the whole West. And if they do attack Israel, then that will be a first step before a full-scale war with the West. This is a narrative that we could see being constructed at the moment. Yeah, you have to tie in Russia because the West has to take on the Axis of Evil. So you have to bring Russia, bring in a little bit of China as well, throw in North Korea. Why not? And it becomes the West going up against the the Axis of Evil. And so they have to get directly involved. The UK, the French military, the US military has to get directly involved to face down the threat of the Axis of Evil. Okay. So that's that's obviously Netanyahu's game. What about the Israeli economy? And what about the Israeli economy after this event as well? Because Israel's a country that that manufactures that develops technology, a lot of technology. And you got to imagine that after this this event, it's not this is not going to to bode well for for the business reputation of Israel and Israeli tech. I don't know. I'm just I'm sticking about, you know, that this what they've done with this pager detonation short term, they went after Hezbollah, you could say, okay, you targeted Hezbollah, even though you also got a lot of civilians as well, obviously. And I think the world is going to change after this event. I really think there's going to be a change in the world after after mobile devices have been weaponized in this way. But how does this affect the Israeli economy? It does nothing good for it. The Israeli economy has been really Yeah, absolutely. It's been really ever since the events of October. Israel now finds itself in a prolonged war. That's you know, that's using up resources. It's important to remember Israel is still a small a small country. It had a very well organized, you know, in some ways a very successful economy. And partly that was, and one has to say this because Netanyahu by some standards ran the economy very well. And he worked very hard to build up Israel's high-tech industries. And he was very successful. I mean, they have very high education levels. They have a lot of people who are very good at STEM, STEM subjects. They're well connected to the university sectors, not just in Israel itself, but in the United States and Europe. And they were doing really very well there. And the technology exports were significant. And we see now how Netanyahu the in some ways effective and successful economic technocrat is throwing away his legacy in order to achieve the objectives of Netanyahu, the geopolitician. And well, I would say it's the person with this incredibly grandiose vision of what Israel should be. And in some ways, and you know, by the way, I know one of the people who has worked in the Israeli tech industry, it's very, very sad to see all the hard work that these people have done being sacrificed in this way. But there it is. I mean, he's obviously not concerned about that. Israel's economy is not doing well. It's had, I believe, it's credit rating downgraded. Whereas it had a very strong credit rating. It's experienced a significant GDP decline over the last year. And there's no sign that that's getting any better. And of course, this attack is going to affect the reputation of Israeli products is going to make people a lot more wary about buying things like this from Israel. They're going to wonder what is behind it. Again, this is not going to affect the great majority of customers. But it will affect some. And when I say some, Western customers who might have to deal, for example, with say, Arab countries who conduct business in the Gulf, they might not want to carry, you know, be seen working with Israeli devices, turning up in Saudi or Qatar or wherever with, you know, Israeli, you know, operating Israeli devices. People might be concerned about this. So it's not going to help the Israeli economy at all. But then nothing that this Netanyahu government is doing at the moment, in my opinion, works to the long term benefit of Israel or even to the medium term benefit of Israel. Let me repeat again what we've said many times after the events of October, after last October, after the Hamas attack on Israel. In October last year, the world thinks that the Israelis could have done, which would have put them in a much stronger diplomatic position and not just a diplomatic position, a far stronger political position, and one which might indeed have created a crisis which might have collapsed Hamas. They could have gone to the Security Council. They could have got resolutions out of the Security Council imposing sanctions on Hamas, action against Hamas under chapter seven. There would have been support for it. Instead, they went for this war in Gaza, which has not ended, which continues. Hamas is still there. And now instead of rethinking that whole approach, because of I suspect to a great extended Netanyahu's own visceral feelings, they're drifting into a wider war in the Middle East, in Lebanon, and against Iran, none of which, in my opinion, serves Israel's long-term interests. What it's going to do on the contrary is put Israel under a far more intense pressure, and of course, his plan to drag the West in is incredibly dangerous as well. And you can already see that the Iranians for their part are taking steps to prepare their defenses. So short ago, the Russian Security Council Secretary has just visited Iran. There are now reports that the Russians and the Iranians are about to conclude a strategic partnership. In other words, a de facto alliance. There are Russian military supplies being sent to Iran. I don't think anybody any longer has any doubts about that. I'm going to guess there's intelligence, sharing as well. So overall, you can see that the military balance is actually shifting against Israel. They can pull off an episode like this Page of Attack. But if you look at the broader picture, the military balance is shifting against Israel. The political situation in the Middle East is deteriorating. There are doubts in Western capitals. And Israel is facing legal cases in the Hague, which it would have been much better had they never for Israel, had they never been brought. But Netanyahu doesn't seem to know how to change course. And in far from doing so, in fact, he is instead doubling down. And the Israeli called me just one further victim to this obsession that he has. And the collective West is not prepared for conflict with Iran, given everything that they've said to Ukraine. I mean, the Pentagon, according to CNN, the Pentagon has already come out and said that they're running low on just about everything when it comes to their inventories. They just don't have anything to give to Ukraine. What are they going to be able to give to Israel? I mean, well, I mean, the state of the European military side. For the West, a wall with Iran would be a complete disaster. Just to say, I mean, it could very, very easily spiral out of control. At the very least, one can imagine, easily imagine the Iranian sinking steps to block the Straits of Hormuz. We've seen that the United States can't open the Red Sea to shipping in the face of what the Houthis are doing. Just imagine what the Iranians can do at the Straits of Hormuz. We see that the technology balance is shifting against the West and Israel in the Middle East as well. We've had the Houthi missile strike now against Israel. Supposedly using a hypersonic missile, I have great doubts about whether that was actually a hypersonic missile. But the fact was, it was a missile of some kind, and it does seem to have got very close to having an actual impact. And some people say it did have an impact. I mean, I don't know. But the fact is, the West does not need a wall in the Middle East. It will be an absolute disaster. I don't think Netanyahu is interested or concerned about that. I think, as I said, he's now pushing forward, because the Israel, which, to say frankly, I mean, I am one of these people who thinks that Netanyahu cares about Israel. I mean, I don't think everything that he does is as opportunistic and as cynical and as self-interested as people say, I think that fails to understand the man. But the Israel that he wants to see, his idea of Israel is now being threatened. His policies that he's been pursuing for the last 20 years are now at risk. And his response is to double and travel down, regardless of the risks that are increasing all around him. All right, we will end the video there. The jaran.locals.com. We are on rumble odyssey, but shoot telegram, rock fin and twitter X and go to the Duran shop, pick up some merch. 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