The Duran Podcast
Starmer's Quest For Conflict With Russia w/ Ian Proud (Live)
All right. We are live with Alexander Mayor Kurz and today we have the honor of having with us Mr Ian Proud Ian. Great to have you with us on the Duran. Thank you very much for joining us today. Thank you very much both who invites me. It's a pleasure to be here. It's a pleasure to have you on the show and I believe you have a new book. Would you like to tell our viewers about the book? Well it's not that new. I published it last year but it's timely in the context of the recent expulsion of British diplomats. It's called Miss Finn in Moscow. It describes my four and a half years in Moscow from 2014 through 2019 through the Solesbunov Asian experience and all that. Malaki so yeah but really to talk about a year on from from that you know latest developments and how actually strikingly very little has changed unfortunately. All right now we'll have a link to that book. In the description box down below and I will also add it as in the comment as well when the live stream is over. So let's say a quick below to everyone that is watching us on Odyssey on Rock Finn. Everyone that is watching us on rumble as well and the big shout out to our locals community the duran.locals.com. A big hello to our moderators as well who are helping out in the chat and Alexander Ian. We've got a very interesting topic to get to and that is the UK stommer and Russia long-range missiles and all kinds of interesting scary scary stuff going on with your stommer. Anyway Alexander and Ian let's get started. Let's indeed now before I do can I just say I've read Ian's book and I wanted strongly recommend it if you want to understand many of the things that have gone wrong with British policy it's actually very revealing about the state of the British Embassy in Moscow and how it functions or perhaps doesn't function very well and of course just to also clarify Ian was a diplomat at that embassy and one of the very few people who actually seems to have actually left the embassy and tried to get to know the country that he was posted to better. Anyway just just to move on and to discuss things because we're in an extraordinary situation today in British policy. We now have the British government advocating lobbying for long-range missile strikes against Russia. We have information that the Foreign Office, I took this from the Times, there was an article in the Times the day before yesterday and they mentioned that Kears stommer has actually as they put it faced down advice from the Foreign Office that Britain was going far out on a limb and that it might have been better for the British for the British government to pull back and go back into the center of the pack on the issue of Russia rather than be right at the head but apparently stommer wasn't interested and paid no attention and we well we had this this meeting in Washington instead with the president President Biden. We've had a situation where the Russians are talking about a potential war which is an unnerving thing to put it mildly and we've had six diplomats from the embassy the British embassy in Moscow expelled and very surprisingly so far there hasn't been a response from the British government I was expecting a rapid expulsion by the British of Russian diplomats from London and of course that may come but it gets a sense it seems to have taken people in London a bit by surprise and I wonder why but perhaps we can start with the last because of course you were familiar with the embassy in Moscow and perhaps you can tell us a little bit about what the loser having people expelled means and what it does to the diplomats in question perhaps but also what it does for Britain's contacts with Moscow what the Russians were signaling by doing it. Well I mean there are two aspects to that story there's there's a human story kind of what it feels like to kind of see colleagues kicked out with seven days notice in fact in our case they left within six days of getting there marching orders and what it actually means for our ability to engage with the Russia to actually operate as an embassy which exists really to advise government ministers to ensure that they have valid and valuable insights to help with policymaking right that's why embassies exist and on the first it's kind of heartbreaking you know you see it's not you know for the officers they will get another job you know when they get back to the foreign office but it's really kind of for the kids particularly you know having to kind of leave their school friends at a moment's notice and go home and you know that for me was a kind of sad thing but actually it's a process it's quite a sad process kind of when you see it happen but everybody moves on very quickly because you know that the people will get another job when they get back to the office I actually bumped into one of the 23 just last week and another diplomatic function in London so funny enough and he's doing perfectly fine you know a few years on that time but but critically that the question is what does it mean for our ability actually to perform and function as an embassy gaining insight about what's happening in the country in this case Russia very complex difficult to understand you know country and for us back in 2018 I think also now frankly in 2024 it's it's pretty crippling I mean that they basically when I was there cleaned out our political section they left us handful of us three of us we're gonna be leaving within four months after the Salisbury nervous attack had happened anyway so it's like a two for the price of one deal I was due to go in July they kept me on figuring I'd just be around for a few more months so we got down to like this tiny operation that could barely do anything and of course they effectively crippled our ability to function as an embassy by doing that they wiped out our political section I think what you have now this week is the same thing six people all from the political section I understand from having read the FSB information about it which anybody can read online by the way look at the FSB website you can even access it in the UK bizarrely you can't access RT but you can access the FSB website funny how this world is today but they were in the political section you see and and again that would have put a big dent in the ability of the MC to operate and give advice to London because you don't have people politically savvy people getting out and about meeting Russians meeting Russian decision-makers meeting ordinary Russian people and feeding that sort of insight back back to London so that would have had another kind of crippling impact on our ability to act but actually there's a wider question here about whether anyway you know government ministers really care about what the embassy thinks so there's that you know separate question too but I mean that that's my sort of a quick take on it that helps well let's let's actually explore this last point about whether the ministers actually listen because I was listening to an interview the David Lavaney who was our new foreign secretary was giving in which he got actually rather emotional waving his hands a bit around which I found strange but anyway he it seemed to me was scoring points or let him hear Putin it was like the kind of debate that you get or discussion that you get in British politics when opposition leaders score points of their opponents or political leaders so I mean it was as if David Lamy was treating Putin as if he was a British politician but he was scoring points off it didn't seem to me to make any real sense at all it was all about whether you know we should adhere to Putin's red lines and he was knocking off all sorts of examples when we were supposedly crossed red lines I have to say to me it looked completely surreal and almost completely unconnected with the crisis the actual crisis that we are in at the moment and I wondered frankly whether David Lamy even understood that we hold potentially in a crisis you've written in your book about your difficulties getting things through particular foreign secretaries and obviously David Lamy's not one that you ever had to work with what are your general comments about this because I mean is the political leadership in London is it right it's a question but open question I'd like you to discuss here are the political leaders in up in London actually very interested in what Moscow is saying and what is going on there or are they as I said still operating very much within the parameters of what they know which is British politics and how that is conducted yeah well I think it's the latter and it has been that that way for a decade and what I mean is that actually really since Philip Hammond became foreign secretary in 2014 everybody is performing to UK audience on this there's almost complete sort of bipartisan support for this bizarre kind of hawkish line where we kind of insult you know Putin as if he really cares what we think as a country with the least influence in the big sort of powers you know who think about Russia at all so the problem is that there's all politicians since Philip Hammond is foreign secretary Lamy is now the ninth you know since 2014 he's the ninth one secretary since 2014 a basic performing to a UK audience they're not really thinking about how we engage with Russia to try and influence try and have some sort of conversation because we're not the people that the Russian authorities will listen to anyway they do ultimately want to talk to the US you know they see the Americans ultimately is a people that will be able to kind of broker a deal they will probably talk to the French and the Germans who they see as kind of leaders in the EU back they obviously talk to the Chinese you know the Indians the South Africans and the Brazilians as they're kind of a bricks partner partners we are no way in that frame so so you know we kind of locked ourselves out of the possibility of direct dialogue with Russia on Ukraine in June of 2014 with this Normandy format of dialogue was created that was kind of shot in the own goals or William Hake shooting himself in his foot and losing his job you know as a result of it we've been completely excluded can you just explain that a bit because I know about it for your book but I think it is important if you explain what happened in June 2014 and big and the Normandy format and what happened exactly because I think this is a crucial moment in the diplomacy and it explains an awful lot about the way in which Britain has acted ever since. So in the if you like the kind of three or four months after the Ukraine crisis really bubbled up you know Russia moved on Crimea. Separatist action was happening in the Donbass you know lots of people in the West thought that actually we could quickly kind of come some sort of negotiated settlement to this sanctions would only be a short term thing by the end of the year at the most and by the time we get to June and the memorial of the kind of anniversary of D-Day you know the kind of landings in Normandy during the Second World War. Francois Long the then president of France decides to kind of get together with Vladimir Putin who'd be in Normandy with Petra Poroshenko the then president of Ukraine and with Angela Merkel to have this you know full-way format of discussions where you know Russia, Ukraine, France, Germany and anybody else you know who wanted to get involved you know could start to have a dialogue about well how can we kind of step back from this precipice of escalating conflict and actually find a resolution to this situation. Now David Cameron at the time the Prime Minister of the UK he was preoccupied with this bid to kind of stop Yonk or Juncker from becoming the European Commission president totally kind of focused on that above everything else that's happening including what's happening frankly in Ukraine believe it or not and somehow the UK just doesn't get involved in the Normandy format we just kind of stay out of it we make excuses what the Americans aren't involved so what should we be involved and of course you know by the time he gets Normandy that ship that landing craft was sailed and we're left out of that conversation completely and from that point on that June of 2014 the UK was outside completely outside of a possibility of dialogue you know with Russia and Ukraine you know with key European states to resolve that conflict that left the UK searching for a role and our role became the flag pair of the sanctions that's when we decisively kind of aligned ourselves with the US as it kind of flag pair for sanctions you know and really kind of taking this hawkish line on Russia having a policy where we wouldn't go back to the lobby point where we wouldn't talk directly to Russia no we'll talk about Russia we won't talk to Russia we'll talk about Russia and hence it's kind of always performing to UK audience point comes in and it really really sends back to that kind of critical June 2014 moment over 10 years ago because to be clear it's the first time I can think of in post-war British history that a major decision has been made about the situation in Europe about peace in Europe with Britain not involved we managed to find ourselves we excluded ourselves from it because we were focused on frankly an incidental thing and we've been resentful about that ever since and I get to express my impersonal view I think when the Minsk agreement was negotiated a couple of months later I think that at some level that must have been also a shock because we have an agreement made about peace in Europe in which we have had no part and no role in negotiating or agreeing whatsoever and I think for a government like the British we're a country like Britain to have something like that happen must have been extremely unsettling just it's just just my own my own observation I agree and let's be completely clear and this is something that many people don't understand it I think most people actually you know in my circle of friends don't even know what the Minsk agreement is a lot of people talk about it but but that emerged out of a draft by Petra Poroshenko himself I mean that that whole Minsk one agreement shortly after Normandy the Minsk two agreements in February that all emerged from an initial draft from the Ukrainians you know this idea that Minsk has been forced on Ukraine it started as a Ukrainian idea and that's something very few people actually understand of Petra Poroshenko draft which then evolved into the first Minsk agreement and then the second Minsk agreement in February of 2015 but we have continued in trying to make ourselves relevant by acting in effect as spoilers and spoilers on a massive scale and yes I personally think that he's getting now extremely dangerous I mean we we are now talking about long-range missiles and you written extremely well on this topic on your blog but I was wondering if you could discuss that briefly here now well what the effect of this would be here what what why we shouldn't go doing this up that going down it was right Russian decision-makers including Putin a very very reciprocal in how they think of things in fact I've sat in St. Petersburg and listened to Putin on stage saying well you know what one reaction will always lead to an opposite you know a reaction an equal kind of reaction and the Russians will always come to Spontip attack now what's happened today in the conflict is that you know both sides have seen the battle space as being essentially a war between two competing parties albeit with material support from other countries obviously we're providing material support to Ukraine Iran North Korea possibly China providing some sort of you know material or other kind of support you know to Russia but it is it is a conflict essentially between two nations right and in terms of how they think about the rules of engagement you know once you start to kind of have UK missiles which depend on US intelligence and satellite systems to function you know actually turning up on Russian soil possibly killing you know Russian civilians that is a massive step over a Russian kind of red line in terms of the rules of the game you know Russians kind of love rules of the game and that essentially means you know Britain is attacking Russia in terms of how they can see it and all of Lamy's kind of pandering to his kind of domestic audience you know misses that key point you know is anybody really thinking about how Russia you would respond my sense is that Russia would respond militarily in some way they wouldn't bother with any sort of asymmetric cyber response because they would want to respond in the way that it was attributable to them they'd want to respond in the way that you know their people saw that they were responding because not responding would be critically kind of difficult for you know for Putin I mean it's because you know as soon as the first storm shallow were to kind of be launched on Russian territory well it's then an open-ended thing I mean that you know we don't know when war's gonna win they could be months of kind of Western missiles firing into Russian soil Putin would feel he had to act quickly because of the the political risks of not doing so would be too high and so it's very obvious to me that you know there would be a direct and a tribute to attributable Russian military response against a UK or US kind of asset and that doesn't necessarily have to be in Europe it could be the Pacific you know Russia and trying to have these kind of massive seaborn drills at the moment in the Sea of Japan it could be you know we don't have to think to in a linear way that it's gonna be happening in Europe but I'm pretty sure it would happen somewhere and I think that would certainly start a conversation has indeed no Putin tried to start a conversation with his statement you know shortly before starma flew you know to to Washington last week do you get the sense that other allies of Britain are getting frustrated and worried about this because I I actually am I think we that we've had very forthright statements from Chancellor Scholz who's hardly a I was hardly a dove on the Ukrainian crisis Maloney in Italy seems to be annoyed and I get the sense the Americans are divided and I I wonder whether this is being understood in the government in London Kim Derek my belief you probably know it also would be here came across he has spoken out very clearly against this idea he said this is you know something that isn't being thought through he of course is familiar with the Americans he was ambassador in Washington well what do you what do you what are your feelings about this because I looked at the pictures of the meeting in Washington and it struck me that the Americans didn't look at all please that that was my own sense about this and before we proceed just to also say I was talking with Daniel Davis who's a former US military officer and he also said to me you know the Americans are asking themselves what do we do if the British do this thing and get themselves into trouble well what are we supposed to do with that situation do we want to be in a position where we have to make that choice that decision it's it's crazy that Starmer and Lamia going in on their own with this and you're right actually to point to divisions within the kind of U.S. side as well because shortly before you know Lamia and Blinken made their kind of trip to Kiev Lloyd Austin the previous week in Vamstein where Zelensky turned up the turn of asking for more weapons they quite pointedly said that no single weapon is really going to turn the tide you know of the battle even Radik Sikorsky you know in that kind of bizarre and if you've seen it pranked kind of video that that was released you know recently even Radik Sikorsky one of the most kind of hawkish you know Polish kind of political figures on Russia is saying that kind of even you know Polish missiles shooting down Russian missiles over Ukraine is is probably a no-go even for Poland so you know what why the UK is kind of going out on a limb on this isn't really clear I think there is a subdivision between State Department and the Minister Department of Defense in Washington I do think Blinken is in a different place from where Austin is that that's very clear from everything that Blinken says which is aligned with everything Jake Sullivan says you know the national security adviser there so they clearly divisions on the U.S. side but you know it goes back to that point about the UK having to be the kind of massive spoiler in all of this and you know I think the reality is it come come November that that's going to leave us even further adrift particularly if Trump comes to power because there will be some sort of ship we don't know what it will look like yet but it's certainly going to be not as kind of hostile and and technistic as it is under kind of Biden's presidency that will as it did you know the start of 2017 leave the UK flailing in No Man's Land again when the Americans pivot in going to a slightly different direction can we pivot to the other another topic which is the sanctions which I know you are very familiar with because if you can also explain to people you were in the embassy the point man as I that's how I would describe you on the sanctions issue and you were giving advice to London explaining that you know the sanctions we're talking about the pre 2022 sanctions by the way that they weren't working in the way that people expected that the Russians were well organized about this that the soft ruble policy that they were pursuing was intended to counter sanctions that they were doing all of this thing and I get the sense that you might have been talking into the wind because it can people in London were not listening you get the sense that's the same with the missiles that people in London are probably being advised by the foreign office now this isn't a good idea but they're simply not listening yeah they're they're not listening and and you know there's that as I said before that can weird bipartisan kind of unity within mainstream British politics in the Conservatives and certainly key starmers to the part of the Labour Party you know on Russia that they're completely immune to advice independent advice and analysis you know from officials on this and I'm not really sure you know well it comes up let's be clear that there is a core in the kind of UK deep state if you like in the ministries who feel it's in their interest to kind of keep taking this line on Russia I think the foreign office you know parts of the foreign office are still very very hawkish on Russia they're parts of the kind of intelligence kind of system extremely hawkish on Russia if you look at all the think tanks Chatham House, Lucy they're all saying the same thing so you know I think one of the problems here as well I mean I do think of Lamy is showing a lack of experience actually as a senior statesman but he's also kind of showing the signs of some he's come in and just been fed the line from from the state about what our policy is on Russia and hasn't bought any ideas of his own I think that that's that plays in into this as well because you know big parts of the state actually think we're doing the right thing 10 years down the track with things getting worse with us kind of creeping ever closer to nuclear emulation you know there's still big bits bits of the state to say well Karenas are doing an eventually Putin will you know will be gone and we can live happily ever after I think don't underestimate you know how much of the state still believes that there was an article actually in foreign policy by I can't remember his name so anyway I'm not going to try but it was an American one in foreign affairs I believe in which they actually said that they said you know nothing will change for the moment you know will continue the war indefinitely but one day Putin will die this is going to be the solution so all we have to do apparently is to wait until that day comes when you know he'll be gone or he'll be dead that might be five years or ten years time you know just just wait and keep your fingers crossed and it will turn out right in the end. Can I say if you'll bear with me for just a moment you know when I arrived in Moscow you know that the topic of Putin's imminent death came up you know surprisingly often in our political or section meetings you know we would be would be speculating on this as late as disappeared from from public view is it back cancer is all sorts of kind of things and you see this in the kind of you know the the media all the time as well speculation about Putin's death seems to be a fix we're fixated that he's gonna die anytime soon but ten years down the track he looks as healthy as ever so I don't know this doesn't seem to be the right strategy to kind of wait for Putin to die in fact I say in my work that waiting for Putin to die isn't the strategy I'm fairly sure I say that you do say that I remember it so we're not talking to the Russians we are sticking with this policy it's not really worked on the sanctions from there was an article today by Simon Jenkins in the garden all right he's a bit of a dissident but he's quite intelligent we're very intelligent and he said the sanctions have been a complete disaster in terms of world trade living standards oil prices energy prices food prices we've just had a long report from Mario Draghi about the situation in Europe he says that prices energy costs a three to five times higher than in the United States in Europe and this is a one of the reasons for our various economic problems so this isn't working policy isn't working on sanctions it's not working it's not achieving the objective it's not changing Russian policy yeah we have a kind of saying missiles negative things are happening to us I'm not sure it's a global phenomenon I think you know Russia has seen economically seems to be doing sort of perfectly fine you know through all of this the Americans aren't suffering they got inflation they got their own domestic economic problems the economic blowback has all come back on to you not on to Russia you know that they've had 10 years getting used to sanctions certainly not on to the US they you know their trade and investments of binding to Russia so small that the blowback on them has been sort of fairly fairly limited you know they have the big energy sector they're not right there either so you know the blowback has really been on Europe mostly not not the world as a whole I think there was of course a short-term blip as you'd always expect in this situation where global energy prices global food prices went up we had the cost of living crisis but you look at it now when it's just it's people in Europe that still feeling the effects of war Ukraine is basically funding the war completely on credit cards you know because it doesn't have any money of its own you know Russia has no significant debts its economy is growing it's kind of able to kind of carry this on you know this doesn't sound me like a long-term credible strategy and in fact the the people losing at most it firstly the Ukrainians and secondly to the people in Europe so is that why we are now talking about missile strikes because everything else has been tried and this is the this is the next thing left because you know we've tried everything we've ticked the sanctions boxes but we can't change directions so we're now coming to missile strikes what is the reason for coming up with this idea of missile strikes obviously Zelensky wants this but why do we want it what is it exactly that is driving us to push for this frankly very bad idea I was thinking about this this morning actually and I think there's almost a kind of pathological desire not to be seen to fail if you if I take you back to kind of February 2022 and Boris Johnson had this kind of slogan was that you know Putin must fail and be seen to fail I mean that that was you know Johnson's slogan and the you know the ghost of Johnson continues today with this kind of fixation on Putin must fail and be seen to fail so stepping back from that line is psychologically very difficult because actually increasingly kind of if we negotiate you know we are seen to fail you know we will have failed because actually if we negotiate if there's a negotiated ceasefire then then at best that will end up with a solution which largely mirrors you know what was agreed at the Istanbul's of the talks in March of 2022 with Ukraine having gained no further territory back that it lost at the start of the war with Ukraine having become massively more indebted as a result of this kind of continuation of this pointless war egged on by Britain as the kind of chief chief kind of flag bearer with hundreds or thousands of Ukrainian people killed or injured cities completely flattened you know leveled you know to the ground you know if they super for ceasefire now you know the only thing they will have suffered since 2022 is cost you know and there'll be no better off and they you know Zelensky were failed he will he can't go back to comedy he'll be out of politics what is it what happens to him next we will have been seen to have failed as well so I think you know that that will create a sort of political risk for Kestama so you know they can almost driven on you know by this kind of mad desire to kind of prevail in the end despite the overwhelming it's been like the charge of the light brigade almost bizarrely well as I always say if you're in a hole stop digging but we seem to want to continue to continue it seems most most strange do you not feel as a diplomat you were there you met the Russians many times you went you went to faces like St. Petersburg you went down inside Moscow not everybody in the embassy was doing it but do you not feel a huge missed opportunity I mean I I used to get I haven't been to Russia for a while but I remember for example going visiting the British council meeting the staff there who are Russians or very exasperated by the fact that London wasn't taking an interest in what they were doing this is before the you know the current iteration of the conflict all of them telling us telling my wife and me how a British culture for example was very very highly regarded by sections of the Russian and the you know Sherlock Holmes and Dickens and Shakespeare and all that which you know let's not discount that there was an if there was a desire certainly an interest in some sort of contact there was even talk I remember about a television program that we were there was going to be set up talking about literary issues and comparing Russian and British literature none of that ever crystallized none of nobody showed any interest in it and the places where the lack of interest came from always ultimately was London and you know whether whatever you may think of Putin Russia's the biggest country in the world the biggest country in Europe it is a major European power it has been so since the 18th century we have to deal with it in some form and they seem to want to deal with us and instead we're in a situation where Putin is talking about us being a war with them that seems to me one of the most catastrophic failures of diplomacy I can ever think of yeah no it absolutely is and you know it may seem bizarre to the people watching this but I mean I was there during a pretty tense time through to the start of 2019 even then that you know I found this affection amongst ordinary Russian people about the cultural links you know between our countries a real kind of fascination to kind of understand better about sort of UK literature UK art you know we are shared history during World War II for example was an area of great collaboration Princess Anne even came out believe it or not in 2016 you know people seem to think that in we almost can perpetuate this narrative in the UK that the Russians hate us but I never really found that to be the case in all the people that I met I found a real affection for the UK they didn't really understand us they didn't really understand how we got into this situation that we were in over Ukraine but it was always possible to kind of make friendships with Russian people who I found warm and and you know welcoming so it was it's a bizarre kind of living this kind of putman on sanctions and actually making Russian friends really it was kind of an odd balance for me to strike but I'm glad that I did because I saw a side kind of Russia that actually doesn't really want a war doesn't really want to be a war with Europe didn't really want to have a war over Ukraine you know which I think was completely avoidable whiteback in February of 2014 I believe I still believe now that it's possible to actually get back to a situation where we can start to rebuild you know relations you know with Russia I think I'm quite sure that the Russian people want that I think deep down probably Putin wants that too although he's never gonna lose face publicly by you know by saying that sort of too openly but I think you know the most Russian senior Russian people would would want there to be some sort of decade generational kind of shift in in the dial I mean it's it's quite bizarre I mean you've been to Moscow I mean it's a fantastic sort of cosmopolitan city very nice place nice people I mean it's you know we're we're driven on by these stereotypes of each other the Russians hate us I'm quite sure that kind of Russian state media says people in the West hate them to but we just need to kind of break this this terrible cycle we've got into and stop the war I mean it would be a good place to solve that now one of the most interesting things in your book if I just go back to it is that you talk to a lot about problems within the foreign office and the fact that it's not working as it once did or should do and that this problems with the way it's all nice and the way in which foreign secretaries have managed it and I wonder whether part of that is that is part of the problem whether the foreign office itself has been something of a Cinderella institution within the British government for quite a long time foreign office ministers come and go as you said we've had nine since 2014 that there isn't it's seen as a stepping stone to something else and perhaps we don't get people put in charge who are very interested in diplomacy I can remember I just told enough to remember the days when Alec Douglas home who was British foreign secretary the 60s and 1970s had a very good relationship with Andre Grimico who was the Soviet foreign minister I remember at that time do we need to reemphasize foreign policy I mean do we really need to start doing a major change in the way in which the foreign office is run and can I make a possible suggestion which is perhaps the right people to put in charge of the foreign office now might not be politicians but professional diplomats again as has happened before at other times in our history yeah I mean that's that's completely that's completely right there's I call a lack of statesmanship you know we don't have any states people anymore you know in the UK I think William Hague made a good attempt of being one actually but he wasn't your own for four years since then it's been a revolving door of political lightweights you know quite frankly including David Lamy I hate to hate to kind of say it there's no kind of consistency Lavrov whatever you think of Sergei Lavrov he's been around for a very long time he's a very experienced diplomat you may not like Lavrov but actually he is a very seasoned and a very effective diplomat we don't have anybody like that in the UK system we don't have kind of states people in terms of the running of the office itself I think you know diplomacy don't underestimate the extent to which diplomacy has been hollered out as a as a skill as a trade you know within within the foreign office as well no proper training programs for over you know two decades and there's too many people wanting to do policy you're not actual kind of meeting other human beings in other countries so and you know the decision to kind of if you like rip apart the foreign office and merge it with diffrid six months into a global pandemic in 2020 has just just worse on that situation it seems to me I mean it the whole foreign office machinery is focused internally on fixing itself and not fixing the world's problems and that's another kind of problem we have here have here too so the whole you know fit it apart and hasn't been a great permanent secretary you know but then he followed Simon doll he wasn't a great permanent secretary so the whole thing sort of has been rudderless both in terms of the statesmanship element the people thought and in terms of the machinery the thing too I think there's a legitimate question about whether the foreign office should have a proper executive leader some who leads it as a business and then you know leaves a dip mats to do the dip mat stuff you know as a part of that business unit but that how you can have solved the critical question of actually having somebody in place for long enough to really you know grow into that kind of statesman role is another question I mean if Lamy's gonna be in the job for another five years haven't helped us all quite frankly but you know who would have placed it well very very last question and this comes back to the question of the missiles it's the question almost answers its answers itself and I just wanted to hear what you want to say do you think that there has been a proper assessment a a genuine analysis anywhere in London about this plan that any body's actually sat down and said to themselves you know what does this mean what do we really think it's going to achieve in the war that you know is it going to really change the military situation the military picture what are the risks what are the Americans going to think about it what are the Europeans going to think about it do you think anybody has done that or I mean I say that because I know there's all sorts of people who think that there is some kind of plan but this is intended to wreck peace talks or to prolong the war in some way or whatever I question whether the government that we have today that I don't just mean the labor government I mean the way the system works is capable of any kind of thinking of that kind at all but I just wanted to hear what you have to say about this I think there will have been planning on the kind of military the purely military aspects of that technically what they can do how it would work what systems that need can support in terms of the U.S. systems of that I'm sure there has been you know planning if you look at on Victoria Newlands personal website otherwise known of the Institute of the Study of War website they even have a map of targets that could be struck inside of Russia if this missiles you know were used so so all that stuff there what is what is missing I think is is a realistic assessment of actually what the what the consequences would be what the Russian response would be and I think there you see in in Whitehall a lack of people who really understand Russia and can give that advice you know see Tim Barrow is a national security visor I mean he does know Russia and he knows it you know very well but he's been out of Russia so long that is he really up to date with can wear Putin's that and so on so I think we're kind of missing that I think advice on actually you know how will Russia respond to this you know what are the likely scenarios militarily if they respond to this and actually then is is is Lamy and Star Lamy and Star were listening anyway and I think on that it's quite clear that they're not actually I will ask one other very final question what about the cabinet because once upon a time the cabinet played an absolutely critical role in British decision-making and we would have discussions in cabinet about these kind of things and there would be ministers some ministers would speak out or discuss and there would be a proper discussion if you look at the old days once upon a time that was how a lot of British policy was worked out it was actually worked out in cabinet do you get any sense that cabinet government works like that today I think I think I think this this cabinet is possibly slightly different from the last cabinet there are differences of you on some issues you look at Israel Gaza where there has been a notable shift in terms of the government position on that not a big shift but a shift nonetheless driven by a kind of a Labour party politics but with any cabinet and I've always sure spoken about this in terms of you know in his writing any minister is struggling to kind of go on top of their brief right it makes sense of what they have to do in their departments so conversations about stuff off topic like Russia you know very quickly descends into kind of generalities and you know the narrative on Russia is so stuck that people will gravitate to that narrative without any background in reading of their own so that it's hard to ship that narrative in you know in cabinet when you have ministers who don't have formed ideas of their own and they just relied on briefs from their from their officials and I think that's that's what you have in the case of Russia you know cabinet government can't really work on Russia because you know nobody around the cabinet table is really kind of imbued immersed in the background of what's happened what's happening now and while the options going forward and that's where you see kind of policy very much frozen I think. Ian Prab thank you very much for your clear answers to my numerous questions I'm going to if you could just stay there I'm going to just pass over to Alex I'm sure we've got some questions for you. Great. Yeah can we take a couple of you have time for a couple of questions? Yes of course of course. Great. Let's begin with let's see here Rolf Steiner says Winston Churchill defined Russia as a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma what would Churchill think of Britain being at war with Russia? Well he might approve in fact someone say he predicted it would happen at the start of the Cold War but he was a man of the 20th century of course and he was a man of that time and is a very successful kind of politician in that you know in that need for the UK to defend itself against Nazi tourney so I suspect Winston Churchill may approve but but he is just a man you know I think we need people modern day politicians of Churchillian stature who actually understand the bigger you know picture what's happening here and it strikes me that nobody really does. Sir Mugg's game says waiting for Putin to leave or die has historic support the time delayed curse of the great leader Bismarck dies in 1898 first post generation Germany defeated second generation defeated and occupied thanks gee thanks Bismarck what do you think of the strategy to wait for Putin to pass? Well if that is a strike let's think about this you know if that is a strategy what will happen you know if we the strategy assumes that we carry on doing what we're doing now until Putin dies right I mean that that is a strategy so say Putin lives for another ten years as president of the Russian Federation for example I mean we're probably all dead anyway if we can carry on as we are now so let's pretend anyway that he lives for another two years we might still just about be alive short of nuclear war you know Russian hostility within you know the innards Putin's inner circle against us will be so elevated that we can't really predict who would replace Putin it's probably not going to be a moderate like an over another you don't know that kind of liberal type of person is probably going to be more like probably not Van Danker dear of you know for ethnic regions reasons I suspect but somebody of that sort of hard line syllabic he you know hostile to the West at ilk so I mean if the strategy is waiting for Putin to die then actually I think it's a bad strategy because you hostility is growing so much so whoever would replace Putin in the future would be possibly even more hostile to us and Putin is now which is already very hostile all right and that comes to the following question your thoughts Ian on Medvedev as a hardliner I think Medvedev is playing an interesting role I follow his telegram channel quite interestingly and you know he's a bit of a he's a bit of an outlier can he throws out all these kind of bizarre and really apocalyptic statements you know on Medvedev but I think actually when his president he wanted to be more of the kind of liberal type still very much united Russia still vacant of aligned with with Putin but slightly more modernizing kind of figure and he could he could still be there now he would have a long way to kind of roll back from his position now which is going to nuke us all basically and we're gonna die but yeah I mean who knows I mean yeah but I think he's already been too discredited by the whole kind of lime green like training shoes online shopping and a scandal at Navalny kind of unearth back in back in the day so whether he'd be incredible he's still quite young let's remember but I don't know I think you know Putin is as as you know in quite a considered way he'd been promoting young apratics kind of over the past generation I suspect if a new person would be to emerge it would be from those banks not from Medvedev who's probably yesterday's man William says chill cut all this would have been avoided if those in government had actually read the chill cut report costing 10 million pounds chill cut to coming soon yes chill cut to coming soon it's a really really good question and actually I was talking to somebody the other day that I was involved in the intelligence dossier after 9/11 before it was sexed up by Alistair Campbell as boy with the story now I played of all the intelligence dossier for a sexer that led to the illegals of involvement in the sort of Iraq war 2003 but I think all what's happening now is is driven by kind of bad advice and essentially chill cut is about you know Blair wanted and was given shit advice you know what to do with Iraq because he was so determined to get close to Bush I mean that was a whole point right Blair was so determined to be close to Bush that he would do anything to make the machinery tell him that he should act in the way that he wanted to act and that's almost identical to what we have today that you know bizarrely even starma he's apparently a new broom but he just seems to have the same old shoes albeit sort of you know sponsored by his is Lord Ali he just kind of wants to be so close to the Americans that he will do anything to kind of pursue this policy that is kind of aligned with the US and now the UK is going to cut loose from the EU and and he can almost needs the system to give him the shit advice you know to do these crazy things with Russia so that there are some really really good parallels let's hope we don't get to the point of all-out war and joke or from right from more no question for Mr. Proud the campaign demonizing Russia comes from long ago but relatively recently Russia Russia Russia became an important foreign policy point in the UK in the US Novachok etc did he did you experience that in your position do I experience well I'm not sure fully understand did you experience the Russia Russia hysteria I guess the Novachok yeah including within my organization you know the fun of this and actually bizarrely actually outside of my job you know when I talked all day you know I'd come back for meetings in London I pick up the black cabaret Heathra Airport take me into London for meetings and this joke they asked me why come for so come from Moscow and oh what's that like then and ordinary people are much more fascinated though minded to understand what it's really like then people work inside the fun of us and it's like with inside government so I have greater faith in the black cabaret frankly picking up from Heathra Airport than you know frankly David Lamy or anybody of that political class from from Roger A.F. what's up with the British and the Russians wasn't Queen Victoria related to the SAR yeah Prince Michael of Kent you know I mean he actually looks like so Nicholas the second I remember walking for a Russian university a Russian economic university for kind of in in Moscow when there was photographs of previous days and I step back and think oh it's better than SAR they had a massive photo of Prince Michael of Kent and he'd come out often actually for a working business too and it's yeah that the likeness is quite striking so yeah there are good familiar links of royal links dating back to country free revolutionary times well I don't really understand what kind of drives this kind of negative sentiment because as I said when you meet ordinary people ordinary people just want to get along they're not really interested in striking at wars and that you know I met sort of quilt wearing kind of a Scottish pub owners in in the year old mountains that a ledger kippling quoting taxi drivers in Saint Petersburg so you know I think ordinary people you you cabot easy cab drivers of kind of the people who can really guarantee well peace for modern politicians right from Ken media reader sanctions certainly made a foundation for the EU and British economic decline including the Nord Stream action was stealing of Russian assets a shock and awe that broadened and deepened the demise yeah I mean I think I think stealing the freezing the these Russian assets is a really really bad idea and actually Dan freed's recent idea to kind of freeze him indefinitely even after a possible ceasefire happens is totally bonkers you know quite frankly because all that's doing is you know saying to people in the developing world well actually we don't it's too risky for us to use dollars and euros because any moment if we fall out with Europeans or the Americans they'll just steal our they'll just steal our foreign exchange reserves so that's kind of leading to this drive towards the de-dollarization you've seen in the past two years the bricks grouping is just ballooned you suddenly accelerated out of nowhere the bricks grouping is taken off even turkeys looking to join now you know Saudi and Iran are looking to have this kind of a posh mod frankly unthinkable you know you know two years two years ago the center of global political gravity is shifting towards the developing world driven by Russia China and the other bricks countries and you know the seizing of Russian assets is only really accelerating I see you know that trend quite frankly from Zachary Morrison is it accurate to call Putin and authoritarian I hear it all the time but I'm skeptical authoritarian in terms of strong law and order yes I mean Moscow feels like an incredibly safe city to walk around you know big police presence and all the rest of it so is by authority authoritarian does that mean you're having strong law and order then then yes I think authoritarian is a better term than autocratic and I think that you know the people in the West making of move towards saying he's autocratic but in fact actually you know if you look at the polls he does still enjoy can a widespread popular appeal you know in Russia but authoritarian probably yes or autocratic jury is out from Ralph Stein our dear Ian the Ukrainians blew up Nordstrom crippling Europe how have the British reacted to this treacherous act of perfidy by Zelensky well the first thing we did was to blame Russia I don't know if anybody remembers to when it happened that actually all the Western press just leapt on the bandwagon I thought the time surely not you know oh Russia you know they're gangsters even blowing up this pipeline is completely obvious to me at the time that the people in whose interests you know it was most strongly in favor of doing this was was the Ukrainians and actually as it turns out it looks like it was the Ukrainians and and even Alex Okolsky was sticking his thumbs up and laughing and seeing that the Americans know about it ahead of time too so it was catastrophic but I mean you know the UK actually gets very even before that happened UK there's historically got very very little gas from Russia anyway but I mean that we would have just shoved the shoulders and frankly not cared about it frankly because we were always kind of pushing against an all-stream to your pipeline even before it's built even though we get very little gas from Russia anyway so you know I think that have been smiles in the foreign office undoubtedly but frankly not a big deal for us but what why nobody's coming out the question is why nobody is coming out and saying well actually hold on a minute if Ukraine has done it what are the reparations you know involved in this you know Ukraine is living on Western credit to fight this war the Germans are kind of foaming at the mouth and steaming at the years that this has happened it's active industrial espionage against a pipeline that kind of serves their energy interests you know when will there be consequences for Ukraine nobody nobody's kind of pushing this in the West from the enough William says Putin was thinking of not standing in 2024 it's only because of us that he felt he must stay he said as much and we've made sure any successor is not going to be a Western poodle your thoughts yeah I mean I've got good information to suggest that that wasn't the case as far back as 2018 but I won't for real why I think Putin was always planning to stay in the 20th 24 but yeah I mean it's that that's his decision and he won by a significant majority but I mean I don't I don't believe that that to be true I think he was as far back as 2018 already planning to change constitution state but I won't go further on that from from we'll do one more from Elza Bojo is the last British prime minister who had a photo from an official meeting with Putin I think there is no chance Stommer will have a photo what do you think he and Stommer and Putin a photo I didn't think Bojo met Putin did you know I don't think he did he met Lavrov yeah I think it's Cameron Cameron had the last meeting with Putin I've got a photo of Bojo it went on Putin but then I don't think Bojo did meet Putin actually just met Lavrov and Maria Zaharova at the Foreign Ministry so even he does he's putting the last prime minister speak to Putin I'll be surprised this star must picked up the phone to share I don't think anybody has trust although you know I've already forgotten the names have been so many prime ministers after Liz just they spoke to Putin I think he's the last one to speak Putin I don't think he actually ever met you know Putin not in Moscow you know when his phone sector anyway but let's do one more from Sparky I think Queen Elizabeth the second was a moderating influence on the UK government without her it runs among your thoughts well yeah yeah she was although god bless herself she was still alive when this calamity started I mean she she was the consummate constitutional monarch and we all kind of miss her terribly but even even she wasn't sort of enough to extend this madness we started back in 2014 with Philip Hammond and the whole kind of Motley through that sadly followed on off then Ian proud thank you so much for joining us on the Duran once again tell everybody that is watching this show about your book I have a link to Ian's book in the description box down below I also added it to the chat and I will add it as a pinned comment as well Ian your book plug your book yeah I'm it's very Moscow I had British diplomacy and much I failed it's really about the bizarre frankly four and a half years I spent in bizarre but wonderful because much of it was actually really wonderful time I spent in Moscow from 2014 to 2019 through the so as we know regional attack and all the things happen around that through sanctions through Bojo visiting and not meeting Putin in 2017 and all kind of fun and games around that so yeah hope people enjoy it's written for anybody to read I've not written it as a boring academic thing that you know policy wonks would read it it's meant to be something that anybody could pick up and read and enjoy and get an insight into actually you know what a really fascinating interesting country of Russia is and why we should be trying much harder frankly to build better relations and get past the stupid wall well said Ian proud thank you so much for for joining us thank you so much guys my center thank you very much Ian thank you all the best speak again all right Alexander you with us oh absolutely just just just to say at some point I mean we really do need to just have a discussion with people like Ian not just about how you know the British government works but about how the Russian government works because I really do think that many many people in the West including in the where in in government don't understand it so when they talk about Putin being autocrafting Putin being authoritarian I think all those words those labels completely mislead and don't capture the sheer complexity and sophistication of the political system that exists there just saying anyway let's move on and deal with the other questions let's let's answer the remaining questions Alexander this is a four four part question from Nikos all right Nikos says I am going to be brutally honest here Britain is the most arrogant nation in history these people have never experienced hardship or poverty or loss loss of the 10th of the population loss of your city's economy the loss of your culture heritage this just takes it from others like Greece and Africa this is their legacy legacy of narcissism that Britain gave to Europe and America that made them that they would destroy a superpower like Russia Russia can take over Europe Alexander if Germany could do it with half the population there's just no value in governing nations that are arrogant well I think you probably summarize pretty accurately a certain part of the British bringing an upper class it is absolutely not true of the vast majority of people here and again I go back to what Ian Proud said you go and by the way I've said this myself many times or many programs you got an awful lot more intelligent commentary and understanding about the situation in an interest about the situation in Russia for people that you meet in your everyday life for people who you meet in taxes and who you meet in bulbs or whatever it is you have much more intelligent and sophisticated and aware conversations with them then you will then you get the impression simply from reading what goes on in our newspapers and what people like David Lamian the politician said and bear something in mind the political class that we are talking about is deeply unpopular in Britain now we saw that in the election the the Labour Party was elected with just one person in five voting for them I mean they're not popular people don't like them people don't agree with them but the way the system works is very difficult in Britain to construct alternatives yeah good blacks welcome to the dry and community Ralph Steiner says I would dearly appreciate it if Ian could throw in some dry British humor as we all do very much operation appreciate the British for this trick well it in has that humor can I just say like so many other good things in Britain it's a declining thing in Britain now you won't find so much of it on the meat in on television for example as you once did so it's always a pretty it's always nice to hear it used in the way that Ian does but it's not as common as it once was yeah Sparky says the charge of the not so bright brigade my tip Tim pulls teeth says loving what you guys are doing keep it up please peace must prevail Verde bill thank you for that super sticker from Ralph Steiner the British Empire treats Russia with great disdain and contempt through British politicians consider themselves a superior civilization from a super I think a lot of them do actually I mean we we still have this extraordinary network of institutions which are legacies of the you know the times of greatness I mean you you see the you know the Palace of Westminster the House of Commons the building of the foreign office it all makes them feel wait when they when they work and inside buildings like that when they come from the schools that many of them do it makes them feel privileged and important and better than others and of course we have also in Britain this culture of debating whereby which I don't mean you know talking about things over but the way in which debates debating societies function schools and universities and that kind of thing which makes at one level the British seem extremely articulate and able to make arguments and school points very well and the British very good at doing that and of course that blinds them to the fact that they don't understand what they're talking about because just as I said during this program David Lamy was scoring points of Vladimir Putin as a Vladimir Putin was a British politician involving in British been brought in British politics when of course he's not so you know we we have a lot of things that are wrong and we're not as connected to the realities of the world or as understanding of the way in which the world is changed as we need to be. Princess of Galindo says I just want to thank you both for the info you give my eyes and mind is more open to the connection of our world because of YouTube thank you for that see here that was from rumble let's go back to YouTube Alexander Ceciolas thank you for that super sticker Elza says Lamy needs to learn that it's the Putin correct Sanjevas says greetings Duran hello Sanjeva Ralph says Lord Boris Johnson reportedly said quote we shall fight on the Crimean beaches we shall fight on the landing grounds we shall never surrender to the not sure what to the to the beaches I I'm not sure what's what this be at see yeah okay I mean the Russia and the message says I mean the Russians is he a true British hero right well this is this is all derivative this is all based on a very famous speech that Winston Churchill made in 1940 I believe it was in I think June 1940 when the situation was become critical and the battle for France and the German army was marching to the channel and Churchill had just become prime minister and he made this incredible speech to the House of Commons which rallied people in Britain and he said you know we shall fight them on the beaches we should fight them in the hills we shall fight them in France and if you know if our island is conquered which I don't remember believe we will go on fighting them from Canada protected by the British fleet and whatever is incredible speech and Boris Johnson of course is a biography he's written a biography of Churchill and he's constantly you can see this he's trying to model himself on Churchill and of course the thing is that Boris Johnson is not Winston Churchill I mean Winston Churchill and Boris Johnson it was different from chalk and chalk is from Geez so when Johnson does this and talks in this way he which he does by the way he talks a lot like like tries to talk like Churchill to me all he does is come across as ridiculous just saying sophisticated caveman says is Kaliningrad a nuclear threat to Europe no sort of nuclear threat to Europe it's a part of Russia and leave it alone and leave it alone it's a threat to no one battle Kozak says about meta banning RT what does this say about freedom of the press well the best person to discuss all this is Jonathan Turley at he's brought a blog recipe so I'll walk with her he has a smoke coming out if he's here's about this he's a professor of constitutional law at George Washington University he's talking about how free speech and the right of free speech is under attack all over the world he caused it the indispensable right about which I am complete agreement and well every single day he works hard analyzing discussing the many attacks on free speech that are going taking place around the world in the battle and and you've just cited another example by the way I'm delighted to see the Thierry Breton the EU Commissioner that's just been sacked and I mean he had Linsky cursed as you correctly say we say it was very funny to see what he had to say right wrote this awful letter saying you know that Ursula von Deline is a poor manager whoever would have thought that I mean that's a real shock and surprise but anyway so I'm delighted to see him gone but I don't think anything's going to change it's the person just going to take his place miss you says you on that it's going to be every bit as awful I suspect it's yeah if I don't want just that they all hate each other though going back to the elites the elites they all hate each other what unites them is there disdain for us for the everyday people that's what unites them they're they're less for power and they're disdain for the everyday people but between themselves they all hate each other correct anyway Elsa says to outlet Putin is that the new wonder why yeah it is absolutely that is the new wonder web it's a whole article about this in Foreign Affairs it's been widely talked about and discussed and many people are talking about it as a tour de force and you know a great new strategy that you know all we have to do is wait out Putin yeah Ralph Steiner says dear dear Ian Lammy is cutting a swath through Kiev with Anthony Blinken no appeasement with the moustache man I mean Putin he shouts is is this British bottle is this British bottle I'm not question about the last point but yeah suffice to say everybody before he was appointed foreign said well everybody but vast numbers of people who addressed in foreign policy before he Lammy became foreign secretary would say that this man is not the sharpest knife in the draw and at this time of all times we need someone who understands foreign policy so of course Starmer gave him the job I mean it's just it's just terrible Starmer by the way has seen the fastest decline in ratings of any government that I can ever remember I mean the the latest poll rating is 29% I mean they're just sinking like a souffle I'm sinking like a souffle all right good good very good as Sticky Mark says October the 4th question mark the day of our the day our controllers and banks fear well we will see and with lots of lots of rumbles and rumblings but I'm not the best person to try and understand all of that I've never beat I've never worked in the financial markets myself but we'll just have to work and see Nikos says I still want that conversation with Dima but today I recommend you check out our fellow Greeks Dimitris de Jazos and Jorros Romanos of course thank you for that Niko let's see here what else Ralph says operation unthinkable was the name given by the British chiefs of staff committee to attack the USSR after 1945 is this cunning plan now finally in play well well what a reduced level it is because operation unthinkable to be very clear was unthinking what I mean but it's a crazy plan but at least in those days the Americans had a nuclear monopoly the Soviet Union didn't it had an enormous army but you know they they would potentially have been very very vulnerable to that kind of attack had it never been made politically it was impossible it couldn't have been done but today what is being proposed militarily is a nonsense you look you fire launch of few storm shadow missiles of which the Russians have shown repeatedly that they're able to shoot them down you have only a small number you can't produce them in any quantity you're going to launch them against the world's biggest country equipped with the world's best air defenses and do you expect to achieve some result I mean it's ridiculous as a pure military idea it's absurd DJ TW3 says authoritarian or strong man question mark well he is he's a very strong lead he is a very strong leader but to repeat again point I've made many times he works within a very very complex and very effective by the way political system and obviously he is the key player and the major decision maker but that doesn't mean that he just wakes up every morning and decides everything that must happen it doesn't work like that Alexander put your trip says thank you gentlemen thank you for that Alexander Ralstoner says Ian Britain has finally referred to as the perfidious albion is the British ability to cunningly maneuver other nations it's a conflict considered a skill well once upon a time you know I think it was Napoleon who first came up with that expression once upon a time that was true I mean in the 18th 19th early 20th century the British were enormously skilled in playing European countries off each other preventing any one country dominating Europe which would have been seen as dangerous for Britain they had immense skill in diplomacy in those days you've just we just heard this program do you think David Lam he is capable of playing a game with that kind about level of sophistication of course not the you're the the British have lost their diplomatic skills they cannot be perfidious Albion anymore because when David Lamy comes along nobody takes him seriously yeah Lana thank you for that super sticker Lana Garcia thank you for that Sparky says ironically government officials who think they're the most informed because they read and watch all traditional new sources and thoroughly briefed by intelligence intelligence are the most misinformed I think I think one major one major I agree with you in in every respect by one I don't think they're thoroughly briefed by intelligence I think they're thoroughly misinformed by what they assume is intelligence to the extent that they receive it at all I mean I've been told informally that the amount of information the British officials and ministers actually get from you know the British government some sources really doesn't amount to very much and that mostly they get their information from the newspapers which is an alarming thought Sir mugs game says Germany also had a plucky hostile hardline or how did that work out Sir mugs game says it's obvious that the USS ship of state is suffering chronically from the cat in the adage dilemma yeah absolutely spark now we answered the Queen Elizabeth question from Sparky Martin says is morality based upon Christianity a common benefit or necessary to successful society well I as a Christian I do believe that Christianity did provide a moral coherence to Western societies I don't want to overstate this I mean we did terrible and enormous and frightful things whilst we were part of Christendom but I think that since then we can see that there's been a loss of bearings and it's how and it is having an effect yes I'm not going to say it's the only way in which societies can be organized and organized effectively I think that would be going too far but certainly in Europe and in the United States I think something has been lost from one second from GL 1416 what are the different possibilities on how the conflict in Ukraine could end I think there's more and more likelihood that we're only going to end up with one a Russian military victory with all that follows and that if I had to say what I think is going to happen I think that is what is going to happen and then of course the Russians will have to make some very very difficult decisions about what use they make of that victory because they will have a lot of problems sorting out and organizing of Ukraine which is what I suspect they will have to do and what I think back in 2014 and even 2022 they did not want to do and the West is not going to make it easy on them no it is not yeah GL 1416 says what do you think about the neutrality of Switzerland in its history and now well it doesn't exist so neutrality is today a fiction is the short answer I think there was a time when you did did generally exist I mean it was real say at the time of the First World War it was basically real during the Second World War so there were times when Switzerland at that time shifted a little towards Germany and then it shifted a little more back towards the Allies I think during the Cold War it became effectively a part of the West and of course today I think that Swiss neutrality is a fiction sophisticated caveman says will EU membership be a bargaining chip for Ukraine does the EU even want Ukraine could Russian no just removal from Kaliningrad be another bargaining chip no I don't think the Russians are ever going to move from Kaliningrad now think anybody can think they are it is delusion I think the Russians are going to move from Donbas or Zaporogio Harrison the region let alone Kaliningrad and I think that is the reality that people have to acknowledge and starts to face I don't believe there's going to be any conceivable land swap idea of the Russians giving up some territory and taking some other territory I think these are fantasies they perhaps were true in the 19th century when the colonial powers the European colonial powers did land swaps in Africa and that kind of thing but that was controversial then and with the Russians it is absolutely impossible now how how this ends I think I've said I think that the Russians will just dictate terms Sparky says although the slide to the Ukraine debacle began while she was still alive the Gaza thing may not have happened if Queen Elizabeth II had been around as she wasn't too keen on Israel you overestimate enormously her influence I mean she was there I think she was an I think she was a positive stabilizing force within British society I think she played a significant role in the South Africa situation in the 1980s and early 1990s when I mean she was pretty much open in her sympathies for Mandela and the ANC and because she saw that as a way of holding the Commonwealth together but I think that in terms of Russian policy I think she had much influence I did think she has very much influence about Middle East policy either death dealer 1341 says Trump will save us all from nuclear war when he is elected as president when he wins well I believe that I believe that his priority very much is to try to dial down the tensions the great international tensions that we see at the moment amidst that's not a guess he said as much during the debate by the way so I think that that line which is unpopular and controversial with certain people that he's taking is is not only a brave one I have to say that but also a correct one mattless ex says if Kiev is willing to move into kursk what would prevent them from moving into transnistria I am afraid that if they are desperate enough to change the narrative transnistria may be at risk I think you're absolutely correct I don't think that there is any reason to think that they wouldn't do that except of course that there are international repercussions and it would expand the wall it would involve another country which is Moldova and there are still some people in the West who worried about that because of course if the Ukrainians go go there at a time when they're in conflict with the Russians well one day maybe the Russians will follow them just saying Sparky says that Duran are heroes to the geopolitical world in the most heroic sense of the word thank you thank you Sparky Muhammad says I'm appreciative of the Ian interview thanks thank you for that Muhammad Jamila says great Britain needs real politicians and real leaders yes as we used to have we don't now Jahari thank you for that super sticker Sir Mugg's game says are Russia and China countering the American century with their version of Apple got the stasis up look at the stasis it is a nice word I think that the Russians and the Chinese probably don't have it all worked out they don't have an exact plan I think at the moment they're still working if you like very much on the defensive they see the Americans putting pressure on them they're saying to each other the Chinese are saying look we've got to be prepared for a sanctions war against us so we need to sort out we need to get the Russians sort of back we need access to Russian war materials and Russian reserves and the Russians are saying to themselves well we need trading partners and we need the Chinese for that and each country takes comfort from the support of the other but I think with every day that this continues this relationship continues it deepens the Chinese and the Russians are getting to know each other better they're working more closely together on lots and lots of topics and over time I think this is still very much a working progress without one without the being necessarily as I said a single plan I think over time they're weaving a whole new a whole new system around themselves and that's what the BRICS is all about that's what the Shanghai Cooperation Agreement is all about that's what the Belt and Road Initiative all about and eventually all of these different pieces will start to come together and they'll get in crucial mass and then the world the world will change so I think that's how it's working out sir most games said Russia 1917 now for the Chinese 1839 1945 the remainder of the of the super chat Abuqalistasis and Sir Mugg's game says yes Alex been dying to use that word in a super chat no Alex I want escort myself out of the livestream thank you for that Sir Mugg's game while E thank you for that super sticker arcane eclectic says gents please invite Whitney Webb on the show yeah yeah working on it Sparky says I make the assumption that a thorough Intel briefing in modern times is complete in thorough bs yeah I suspect you're right by the way Sir Mugg's game says the cat would love to eat the fish but is afraid to get its feet wet from McBeth yeah yeah Samuel Moroni says as Ukraine had more than 150 K 150,000 KIA up to now well I don't know I mean I'm not going to go and can't try and guess the number all one can say is this the Ukrainians themselves if you bring any report now for Ukrainian soldiers they all complain about the fact that many of their friends and that the soldiers they fought with have been killed you you often get reports saying I am the only soldier left in micro platoon I'm the only soldier left in my company my battalion is a shadow what it was you get reports all that every day all the time that the soldiers that are being called up and are joining the army now are insufficient that they inadequate for the purpose that they have low morale that they have that their physical condition isn't very good all of this taken together points to enormous Ukrainian casualties and I read a really rather sad report very sad report the other day from an a Western person who visited a cemetery a Ukrainian cemetery and said that it had doubled in size over the course of the year so there you go the Ukrainian casualties are huge and they're getting worse sophisticated caveman says if total victory and the Russians demand Finland Latvia and Estonia's removal from NATO well I don't think they are telling each other that that is what they're going to do if they win a victory over Ukraine the country that they will want to talk to first and foremost will be whatever is left of Ukraine or whatever people there are still there who represent can be seen to represent people in Ukraine so it'll be the major priority but to be very clear do not underestimate the geopolitical impact of a Russian victory in Ukraine on Eastern Europe it will mean that all sorts of countries that have joined on to the Western ship climbed on to the Western ship will now understand or not will now start to fear that the ship that they've clambered on to has sprung multiple leaks and might be sinking and they might start worried that if they sink if the ship sinks they don't want to sink on it and they might start to bail out so that's not impossible I'm not predicting it I definitely know how it's going to play out but it is a real possibility or so it seems to me Ralph Steiner says they missed Mr. T again was Zelensky behind this mr. Trump mr. Trump oh mr. Trump oh yeah of course yes mr. T yeah Radovid thank you for that super sticker Jamila says Alexander and Alex I think you believe I think you believing in God and those around the world religious leaders to not speak out they are waiting to the end of the world why well I mean I can actually say I was just reading a report again earlier earlier today that there was a you create a sir he was Serbian actually I think he was doing weights or something like in the Olympics an athlete and apparently he's a wrestler that's right because he's been fined because he made the sign of the cross it seems bizarre to me I mean these things seem so weird and so strange I mean what I'm sagging is uncertain now but what is the world coming to when something like this happens and I we are living through a very strange very disturbing time when they seems to me that we're not just talking about it a non-religious time but we're certainly talking about an anti-Christian time there is definitely an anti-Christian wave going on and it's affecting all the west and it's very very troubling at least to me it is sir mugs game says apochatastasis is the Greek meaning restitution from sins and sinners and the creation of a perfect just condition yeah well thank you for that sir mugs game Josh Woods says when Russia wins the war where do you think the new Russian Ukrainian border will be the Donbass region the Dnieper or elsewhere I've said many times I don't think you can be the Dnieper I think people who talk about the Dnieper as the boundary are are completely wrong and I read a very interesting article by East Smith on naked capitalism about a week ago in which there was a footnote by some jogrifer and he pointed out anyway that the Dnieper basin has to be regulated because otherwise you know the whole area turns basically into into marsh and obviously people can live there but not in the way that they do now so whoever controls the Dnieper must control both banks in order to regulate the water flow and although it's a very interesting article but at any add still the point I've made many times the Dnieper cannot be the boundary I don't know whether the political leaders in Moscow elsewhere understand that but I'm going to guess that in Russia they do I suspect that Putin and the Security Council in Moscow are getting advice about this so it cannot be the Dnieper and I can't myself see the Russians stopping before they reach the Dnieper so logically they must move beyond it but how far they move beyond it is another question Azisi Karayani's thank you for that super sticker Sparky says Western governments always worry and speculate on what the Chinese and Russians are thinking when the issue is what they themselves are thinking which results in Chinese and Russian thinking you are so completely right that's a very insightful a good comment by the way I completely agree let's think about what we're doing engage in a little self-criticism from time to time and look at some agency you know since I spoke about East Smith there's a brilliant article by Konigala her in the site that she does naked capitalism which looks at Europe and you know looks at this new big memorandum by Draggy about the economic crisis in Europe and it says you know a lot of it's 90% of institutes to energy costs huge rising energy costs and we're getting all this did you know we we use up cheap gas so now we don't have cheap gas you read this article and you look to see in the article who has brought this about who made the decisions but that created this mess and Draggy never says never says anything I mean it's you know it's all it all just happened don't you see I mean we go to start taking responsibility for our own decisions which is of course what the Western political class never does anymore if only there was a country that made a ton of gas that provided a ton of gas and the pipeline that could get the gas into Germany if only that existed then Europe would be okay but oh well they just don't have that Alex I just don't have that I know what this guy's in Europe man Nova Storm says thank you Duran as always thank you for that Sir Muggs game says Sir Starmer is the 10 most boring people you'll ever meet he will have a short half-life politically speaking he's very boring let me let me correct you you don't know the minutiae and details of English titles British titles he's Sir Care Starmer if you address him in person you call him Sir Care not Sir Starmer is that impressive in every other respect by the way you are absolutely 100% right it's Sir David Cameron it's not Sir Cameron it is it is in any of his Lord Cameron so you Lord he's that's sure he's Lord he's not kissy he's a lord yes he's Lord Cameron's a sir sir yes Starmer sir yes Starmer you don't get invited to the right places if you get more that wrong at least not the right not the right places in London right Ralph Steiner says Justin Trudeau really stuck stuck it to the evil Russians yeah I'm sure that they're trembling they're shaking up guy Trudeau every every cut just to say every couple of months until the Trudeau's dying days are numbered and that he's about to go and I'm afraid he's always turns up and he's still there I you know when will when will this man eventually go he's gonna be nice to be cursed yeah sticky marks says will Acrobat and Alina Berbach go back to the circus missing for a while but she has she has she has absolutely there was a there was a speech in the Bundestag by the way a debate in the Bundestag on budget policy for the foreign ministry and a member of Saravagan ex-partage about it connects party completely took her apart it was quite a thing to say actually just say from Sir Mug's game I should have known that considering but the sir circuit sir circuit mo else you'd be you'd be astonished you'd be astonished to know how seriously some people take that kind of thing I mean it's it's like like you know you know remember there's Lara Croft and you know what is she lady Lara or Lady Croft massive debate in some places about what the correct form of the title is and it depends very much on the exact relationship with the father and all that just say mo else says hi Alex and Alexander will bricks for him and Kazan still happen even if Russia is attacked with missiles or will it be postponed elsewhere from well we'll just we'll we will just have to wait and see I think that the Russians will move heaven and earth to make sure that the meeting in Kazan takes place and it's quite plausible that if there are missile strikes they will delay their response until after the Kazan meetings happened because I think that is for the Russians at the moment the absolute overriding number one priority yeah and Tsunami Ban Tsunami Ban says fun fact about democracy Churchill was appointed PM in May 1940 British General election scheduled that same year was canceled by Parliament next time people got the vote in 1945 they got rid of Churchill's party yeah but the Japanese democracy held their general election in April 1942 as scheduled okay it's absolutely correct by the way in terms of winning plurality of the votes Churchill lost every election what does that he lost big in 1945 that he lost again in 1950 the Labour Party out voted him in 1950 and then there was another election in 1951 in which the Conservatives ended up with the largest number of seats in the House of Commons and a majority but even in that election the Labour Party actually won more actual votes than the Churchill-led Conservatives do though it's it's it's it's it's something about Churchill that most people don't know and Sparky says build a better world with bricks well I think that's coming every day we see it and on that note Alexander we are done with this live stream that's a wrap let me do a quick check on on everything and your final thoughts as I check hi that's a brilliant program and he is very very very interesting to see how the system the the system in Britain works or rather doesn't can I just say I don't think we have ever got ourselves into as big a mess in Britain as the one we're in today certainly in international terms once upon a time the closest we got to was so is in 1956 when we ended up being criticized by the Russians and the Americans at the same time and I suspect we're heading in exactly the same place again Tabernax says ASEAN will be larger and more powerful than the EU question mark oh I wouldn't surprise me why wouldn't it be I mean it's something that you know the the the Joseph Morell's can't imagine but I certainly can yeah I can too absolutely all right we will end it there thank you to everyone that watched us on ASEAN rockvane rumble youtube and vidaran.locals.com tomorrow Alexander you will be having your your live stream on locals is that correct yes absolutely absolutely in the in the evening having my live stream on locals so 1400 hours ESD eastern time in the United States 1900 hours in in the UK so join us on the duran.locals.com and catch Alexander's live stream on locals thank you tower moderators as well to Peter and I think it was just Peter today moderating yes I believe it was Peter and myself so thank you Peter for helping out really appreciate it take care everybody [BLANK_AUDIO]