LOVERACING.NZ Racing Update with The Mail Run’s Michael Guerin on Mornings with Ian Smith including, a change of plans for Orchestral, spring weather, today’s racing & more
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Racing New Zealand
LOVERACING.NZ Racing Update with The Mail Run’s Michael Guerin on Mornings with Ian Smith (18/9/24)
[MUSIC PLAYING] Jack in the Box knows sometimes you're in the mood for a burger, and sometimes a bigger burger. Starting at $3.99, the bonus Jack combo, a Jack in the Box, gets you fries, a drink, and a burger with your choice of one, two, or three patties. At Jack, every bite's a big deal. Order now at Jack in the Box. [MUSIC PLAYING] Love Racing, dot NZ, your home of Ferrari Racing. [MUSIC PLAYING] And being a Wednesday, we go right to the top of the tree with Michael Guerin. And Michael, we've just been talking about rain and cricket matches, and it's forecast again and gall. We don't want to talk about rain and Alisley, do we? Good morning to you, big hider, all your listeners. Rain won't bother Alisley this time around. Now, I was thinking to you about you the other day, because I was at Alisley, and I was learning about surface tension and Roy grass. And I thought of that you guys who have to know about that stuff for cricket. And I thought, I don't really know what I'm talking about, because I didn't. But I pretended I did. And I went all the way up the track and learned all these different things about different parts of what went wrong with Alisley last year, and how the grass bonded together and created surface tension. That meant when it rained, Alisley became slippery. Then, I learned about a thing called verti draining, which is where you put spikes into the grass, and it allows it to aerate and grow better, but without bonding. And it sounds like a lot. But what it needs is, best I can work out, Smithy, is that I think, even if it rains at Alisley this time around, the track will be a bit spongier. So for those who don't follow the racing, it comes back on Saturday. Alisley does, first meeting since April. And I think, Smithy, when you walk on it, it's a lot spongier underneath. So the top's got the grass. But the underlying soil has a lot more give. So if that gets wet, horses, hooves will go into it, as opposed to when it was all bonded together last time, it got wet, and horses hooves, like a skating rink, when it crossed it. And it's a bit dramatic, because it wasn't quite that bad. But to paraphrase, even if we're just said, I think if it rains, this track, the new Alisley track take two, will be far better prepared to deal with it. And I think we've got a good comeback meeting on Saturday, Smithy. For what's going to be the biggest season in the history of Auckland thoroughbred racing? I don't say that lightly. But we're going to go to Boxing Day New Year's Day. They used to be traditionally great meetings. They are still great meetings. The correct and million is going to be bigger than either, because it has the million dollar two-year-old, the million and a half three-year-old, the million dollar four-year-old, and the railway, our premier sprint, moves to that night as well. It's $700,000. So you're almost certainly going to get the return of the James McDonalds of the world to ride there. And then after all of that, we have Champions Day for $9 million, including the NZB Kiwi, that'll be on March the 8th. So it is an incredible season. It's got to start somewhere. It starts on Saturday. And to chuck all that into the mix, we get a little bit of a bonus on Saturday, because Smithy would expect him to get orchestral in Canadian Nissa, because they're going somewhere else. We've got him head to head with Habana, and our main race on Saturday. So it's actually a liberal of race, fitting the return of Auckland Racing. So all of a sudden, but it's sort of come around. I'm excited by it. And I'm looking forward to seeing how the whole season in Auckland unfolds. - Yeah, interesting, beautifully, but named actually Okiestral by Zabil out of some fun. I think it's beautifully, and it's never been, I should say, out of some fun. It's a beautifully named horse. Yeah, I'm just looking outside the window, fine day here in Hawkes Bay, but cold. But it looks like for Aerofield Day, we might be getting another good track, Mac. - Yeah, and that's a crucial factor, because the news came out this week that Okiestral isn't going to the bay. So Hawkes Bay, for those who don't follow it, Saturday week, and in two weeks after that had these two huge meetings. But some horses don't want to go to them because the distance is too long, fresh up. A mile has a different effect on a horse in 1400 meters. So she pulled out of those. And ladies, man, who had a race canceled last week at your Plymouth, is almost certainly going to miss the Liverpool. So all of a sudden, these races are changing. Horses are coming and going out of them. But over there is that, with a human chancy, Mustang Valley won this race last year, and then won the Liverpool two years ago. If it rains in the bay, the Mustang Valley turns up and probably wins, 'cause she loves heavy. But with that 10-day forecast, as accurate as these things can be, for not a lot of rain and the water table, not that high in the bay compared to recent years, we could have a good track. So the Mustang Valley disappears. So these futures markets are really interesting, but because they're very organic, they're affected by a lot of different things, how horses are when other races are canceled, what the track's going to be like. But I think if the fine weather in the bay, which is forecast continues, Skiwif, who was 10 days ago, a $7 chance to an aerofield stud plate, could be 2.5 by the time of race morning. So it's the horse who's been the big mover. For Ed Leone, he's coming to the race. It was a late nomination. It was nominated yesterday, at the same day, orchestral pulled out. And for punters, it's a bit of a fun game. They get to play this futures game, sort of almost on a daily basis. It's a hard game to win, but a lot of people love it. - Racing today, where are we today? - We'll go to a game. - Of course, it's a really interesting one, Spidey, because to Yarcow, which is Mark Walker and Sam Burgess, don't usually go really deep into these synthetic meetings. They tend to be racing on the glass. They might give the occasional horse runs on the synthetic, but they've never been massive synthetic players. Like, they've got to dominate today. They have, I think there's a bit of six races, and they have, like, favourites in three or four or five of them. They've got no OP Boston today, because OP suspended. But they've got, we're removed in doing the majority of the arriving. For them to target this meeting with a lot of horses who are fresh up, I don't have one singular tip, because the most number too short, but they will dominate the day. And maybe we'll remove Pinto and the jockeys. Challenge is the best way to go about petting today. But yet they'll be the big though today at Cambridge. Interesting meeting at Palpo on Friday. There's a lot of maiden races, and people probably think, "Well, what are the keys about those?" A lot of good three-year-olds have been targeted for Palpo on Friday because it's a good track. And these are horses who might, might, end up in 1,000 guineas and 2,000 guineas and all those types of races. So I think we're gonna see some good horses on Friday before we roll into, both from a newbie and Ella's the on Saturday. So it's not the at the moment, it's all go. It's all full of promise and hype and horses who we think could be worth a million dollars, who in six weeks might be worth $50,000, and horses who right now popular with $50,000 who in six weeks might be worth $2 million. So it is really the spring of dreams, and it's now up to the horses to prove what they're worth. - You're right, you're absolutely right. Beautifully summed up, the spring of dreams, I like that. It is 11.38, and that was Michael Garan with us. Have a terrific weekend, Matt. We'll catch up with you on Monday, thank you.