Gorilla Sports
Gorilla Sports podcast Ep 188
To the Gorilla Sports Podcast, I'm your host Alex Wolfen and it is Monday, September the 23rd. Alright, recap another winning day on the gridiron yesterday. Love it. We had four player props we took yesterday. We took Nico Collins over 75 and a half receiving yards, you cash at the fourth quarter. We needed the fourth quarter to get us there. He was kind of quiet for the first half of the game, but that came through for us. We took Marvin Harrison, Jr. over 62 and a half receiving yards. That was a winner. Last night we had Kyle Pitts over 37 and a half receiving yards. That was a winner. Our one loser with Derek Carr over 238 and a half passing yards, geez, this was such an ugly game. He was the Eagles guy, so I like that we won the game, but I don't know what New Orleans was doing. After the first drive of the first quarter, I was like, "Well, I better start spending this Derek Carr money." He looked on fire. He was picking the Eagles defense apart. Chris Olabe had like 38 yards on the first drive. They were connecting so much and then they went away from it and they just kept handing the ball off to Camara. Everything was the Camara show and it just got so ugly. It was just weird drive after weird drive with turnovers. It was such a low scoring, ugly game, didn't call this one right at all, but hey, three at one, we'll take it. Our first play today, let's go to the Washington and Cincinnati game. Now, we're going to take Brian Robinson, Jr., the running back of the Washington commanders. Yeah, that's their name, Washington commanders. Listen, so week one, he only went for 40 yards. However, it gets a tough run defense in Tampa Bay. Then last week, he exploded for 133 yards versus the Giants. Now, since he has a terrible run defense, they give it the fourth most rushing attempts, the seventh most rushing yards. They were awful last year as well and then it hasn't gotten any better this year. They let Remondre Stevenson scorched them for 120 yards in week one. Then through this podcast, we were on Isaiah Pacheco last week over his rushing yards. That became a winner before he broke his leg, luckily. So yeah, we're getting 53 1/2. Now I love this number. I think you can get up to 70, 80 in the alts if you want to go that route. But just for the podcast, I like Brian Robinson over 53 1/2 rushing yards. Our next play is in the same game and we're going to take Jamar Chase over 80 1/2 receiving yards. Now, Washington's secondary is awful. They were dead last in passing yards against receiving yards against in 2023 and it hasn't gotten any better this year. Week one, they let Chris Gogwin and Mike Evans scorched them for 144 yards and three touchdowns. And then as per this podcast, we were on Malik neighbors last week over his receiving yards and he went 10 for 127. So he almost doubled his total from last week. This is a great spot for Chase at home to get off the snide. They're an 0 and 2 team. They need this wind bad, so they're going to have the foot on the gas the whole game. And yeah, this is a great spot for Jamar Chase to get over his 80 1/2 receiving yards. Our next play is we're going to go over to the Buffalo Ed Jackson mill game and we're going to take Trevor Lawrence over his rushing yard prop. Now it's set at 15 1/2 on Fandour, it's 17 1/2 on drafting, so that's a big jump in those two yards. So definitely shop around your line. Now he went for 45 rushing yards versus Cleveland last week and Cleveland and Buffalo kind of have a similar defense. They both have insane front four, their defensive lines are both really good, which means they're going to get after the quarterback, which means it's not going to be designed runs, but he's going to have to scramble for his life. Buffalo's front four is nasty and in doing so, they let the quarterback get out of the pocket a lot. They also play a ton of zone Buffalo does and actually so does Cleveland. They're both kind of top 10 in zone coverage for defenses, which means you're following your man up the field with your back to the quarterback, where if you're playing zone, you've kind of got one eye on the quarterback and one eye on your player in your zone. So you're kind of always watching for the quarterback to run that way. But all of a sudden these guys are going to take off. So in week one, Kyler Murray went for 57 yards, which, hey, that's a little different. It's Kyler Murray. He's a running quarterback. However, in week two, Tuah went for 17 yards before he got injured on one of those runs and Tuah didn't go for 17 yards in the entire 2023 season. Like he's not a rushing quarterback whatsoever, but when everyone has their back to you and you see their numbers and you're like, this is open space. I'm just going to take what I can get. All we need is 15 and a half. So I like that a lot Trevor Lawrence also rushed for 35 yards versus Buffalo last year. So this is a good spot for Trevor Lawrence to get over 15 and a half. And actually I also like him 25 plus and that's on FanDuel and that comes in at a plus 235. The odds are a big difference between draft King at a plus 170. So there's a lot of value in that. I'm not saying go put a full unit on it, but I don't mind a little sprinkle on Trevor Lawrence 25 plus rushing yards. And again, that's on FanDuel and it's at 170 on DK and I think 170 on bet 365 as well. So FanDuel is your spot for Trevor Lawrence over 15 and a half rushing yards. And on the other side, we're going to take James Cook over his receiving yards prop. Now that said it's 17 and a half. Now I think we're kind of getting a bit of a discount here because he only got 17 last week. However, he didn't play the fourth quarter. Buffalo destroyed Miami. They had Ray, they had the rookie Ray Davis in the fourth quarter in mop up duty. So like James Cook didn't play an entire quarter and change and they put the rookie in for this. He had one catch for 17 yards. In week one, he in a more competitive game versus Arizona, he had 32 receiving yards. So I like that a lot. Now they give up the defense, the Giants defense allows the third most targets and third most receptions to the running back this year and the second most amount of yards. So that's a great look. Now he had also a 25 receiving yards versus Jacksonville last year when they played against each other. So this is a good spot. Give me James Cook over 17 and a half receiving yards. So those are our four NFL player props for Monday night football. There's two games. Now this is the last week for the regular season for the MLB. Now we've followed up a nasty NBA year with a nasty MLB year and we're now flowing right into football and now we're 12 and four on our football prop. So this has been a pretty profitable podcast. Have you been following me since day one and I know a bunch of you have been. So congrats to all of us because we've just been crushing now going forward. I'm not going to have a daily podcast as as the weather warms up. A lot of my baseball plays are hitter props and as the weather turns to colder, the ball doesn't sail as far. You don't get as many hits. You don't get as many runs. So that kind of depletes my edge that I have when I'm researching my picks. You still can find some ones in domes and things like that. But going forward there'll be a lot less MLB props and more to the NFL. So my schedule will be obviously Monday night football, Thursday night football and Sunday for football. And then Wednesday night at 9 p.m. I do a Twitter spaces live with my buddy Jeremy. Now if you guys haven't heard this guy talk, he is sharp and I don't just say that like I like to think that I kind of know what I'm talking about. This guy is really good and also he makes my, my bet using sizes look like crumbs compared to what he's betting on some of these games. But he is extremely sharp. And so yeah, we do a podcast, a live one on Twitter spaces, which all you have to do is just sign up for Twitter and then follow me at bulks one B U L P S and the number one. And then you can listen live on excuse me Wednesday nights at 9 p.m. Now when I'm giving my plays out on Sunday and you hear me say, Oh, I got this number at this and you can still get it at that. It's usually a two to three yard difference, but I'm betting these on Wednesday night. And if you're listening and following, you'll get the same numbers that I get. So it really is advantageous to listen and to get in as early as you can. And as we've talked about on that podcast, if you're betting overs, you want to bet them early because Sunday morning, the public comes in and dumps a ton of money on these and the books have to start raising these numbers because they have too much exposure on the overs as most of the public bets overs. So when you're betting overs, you want to bet them early, but when you're betting under is you want to bet them late. And Jeremy's a big unders guy, which a lot of the sharp professional sports matters take unders. There's a lot more outs to an under than there is to an over, but I don't like betting under is they're brutal. But yeah, honestly, you guys really need to be watching or excuse me listening in on Wednesday, it is absolutely imperative because, I mean, some of the yard's differences that I'll get on a Wednesday night compared to a Sunday morning, like granted, Derek car lost. However, when it closed, I think it closed at about two 41 and a half for passing yards. I got it at two 32 and a half. So I mean, almost nine yards difference, and this could be the big difference between a winning bet and a losing bet. And we're only trying to give out winners. Okay. All that being said, I do have an MLB play today. We're going right back to our boy, Valatti Guerrero to get one hit. He's going versus Tanner how he's five for 16, about three 64 versus Tanner how flatty it just has had an amazing year. He's now past his career hits for a single year. He's just absolutely crushing and he's not mailing it in like there's only a week left of baseball, but he's gone back to back games with three hits. He's got four three hit games out of his last seven. So like he is just absolutely still swinging for the fences, which is awesome for, for Blue Jays fans. Because it's been about the only, the only bright light for the Blue Jays all year has been flatie Guerrero. All right. And we're going to pair Vladie Guerrero with Yoshida of Boston in that same game. Now he's six for 16 versus Chris Bassett. He was pitching today for Toronto. However, he's five for nine this year. He's got five singles in 2024 versus Bassett. He's gone two for three, two for three and one for three. So he's, you see him three games this year. He's got to hit every single one of those games. And I think he's got a good shot at getting another hit today. When you pair Vladie and Yoshida together, you get a minus one 24, I believe it was. So a little bit juicy, but I really like this look today. All right, guys, we got four player props. We smashed yesterday. We got one MLB and if you're rocking with me, let's roll.