Gorilla Sports
Gorilla Sports podcast Ep-185
[inaudible] Hey guys, welcome in Gorilla Sports Podcast. I'm your host, Alex Bullpin, and it is Thursday, September 19th. Alright, let's recap from yesterday. We had three plays and we only had one winner. So we took Atlanta Braves on the Moneyline yesterday. They absolutely smashed it. One seven to one. That was a good read, a good call. I actually took Atlanta in the first five innings as well. That ended up coming out a winner, but we had two batter parlays going. We took this one kind of hurt. We took Christian Walker and we paired it with Randy Arosarena. Christian Walker came through early in the afternoon. So that was nice. And then we had all our eggs in this Seattle and New York Yankees basket. We took Juan Soto and Aaron Judge together. Soto got his hit early in the third inning. So all we needed was either Randy Arosarena or Aaron Judge to get one hit and we were going to book a winner. If they both hit got hits, then we were going to have a sweep. So after Juan Soto gets his hit in the third inning, Randy Arosarena and Aaron Judge combined for six straight strikeouts. Oh, it even went to extra innings. Arosarena had a shot in the 10th and ended up blowing it. Oh, God, this was painful. I thought we were definitely we're going to book at least a two in one day. If not a sweep instead, we went one and two. So we lost a unit yesterday that brings an end to our five game, excuse me, our five day winning streak. So we're up to 21 and seven over that run. So that's still a pretty sick little run we're on. Let's get into some plays today. I got three batter parlays and I got four plays for Thursday night football. Let's get into baseball first. So we're going to go back to that Atlanta versus Cincinnati game. And I got two batters. I love out of this. Our first one is we're going to take Maddie Olson. Now Maddie Olson has a hit in eight of his last, excuse me, eight of his last nine games. And he loves batting in Cincinnati. So his last five games at Great America ballpark, which is a very super hitter friendly ballpark. So we went two for four last night, one for three with a homer the night before, then he's gone one for four with a homer, two for four with a homer, and two for five with two homers. So this guy absolutely smashes. He's going versus Julie and Aguilar. This guy's got a two and O record, but a four 88 ERA. But most of that decent ERA is on the road. He is not good at pitching at home in Cincinnati. He's got a 10.8 ERA at home. That is nasty. And he is in the bottom first percentile in barrel percentage, meaning everybody puts a barrel on him. Maddie Olson is in the 86 percentile in barrel percentage. So that's a great combination for these two guys. So because Maddie Olson's a heavy favorite to get a hit, he's in the minus 320 range, something like that. We had to find another under the radar guy to get a hit. And I got a perfect guy for it. We're going to take Isaac Parades of the Chicago Cubs to get one hit. Now he's going versus our boy, Patrick Corbin. And I say he's our boy because we bet against him a million times this year. It has been pretty profitable. Now Parades is hit versus Corbin one time this year in 2024. And he went three for three with a double, a homer, and a triple. So I love that the two of these two guys, when you pair them together, you get a minus 120. So I love that play. Our next one is we're going to go right back to our boy Marcel Ozuna to get one hit. Now he's gotten 306 on the year. And he also loves batting in Cincinnati. In the two games so far in this series, he's got five hits. He went two for four in game one. And he went three for four last night with two doubles and a homer. When we took Atlanta to win the game, that was nice having Ozuna on our team smashing the ball around. Now, like I said about Aguilar in his bottom one percentile in barrel percentage. Ozuna is in the 97th percentile in barrel percentage. Give me Marcel Ozuna to get a hit. And again, because he's a minus 350 favorite to get a hit today, we had to find another under the radar. And I got another good one. We're going to pair him with Paul Goldschmidt. Now he's going versus Luis Ortiz of the Pittsburgh Pirates today. But goldies three for four versus him. And he's one for two with a double in 2024 versus him. So I like that lucky pair of Marcel Ozuna to get one hit and Paul Goldschmidt to get one hit, get a minus 119 perfect. And our last play is we are going to take Jose Altuve to get one hit. Now he's going versus Jose Suarez. He's seven for 18. So he's got 389 versus Jose Suarez. And he's got 372 versus left handed pitching. Perfect. And we're going to pair him with Jared Duran to the Boston Red Sox. And he's going versus Zach Little. Little gives up by 9.74 hits per nine. Duran's got a hit in 17 of his last 22 games and he's been three for six. He's been 500 versus Zach Little. Perfect. When you pair Altuve and Duran together, you get a minus 128. So those are our three baseball plays. Now let's get into some football. Now I've got four props that I like for this game. However, you can only take three of them and put them together. I know that both DraftKings, fan duel and bet through six five all have either a profit boost or a free same game parlay for Thursday night football. So I'll tell you the three that I'm taking to put on my ticket, but I have four plays altogether. All right, our first play is we're going to go to Garrett Wilson. Now we're going to take him over 64 and a half receiving yards. Now he hasn't covered this yet. He's only got 57 and 60. 57 versus Tennessee and 60 versus San France. He's right on the Cosby's right there. However, he's gone through two really tough secondaries. San Francisco is the number two ranked secondary per PFF grade. And Tennessee is the 15th ranked. Now they're going versus New England. Who's the 21st ranked? So the matchups are getting better for him. And as he's getting, you know, his as he's getting his rapport with Aaron Rodgers, Rodgers is a timing quarterback. So as soon as they kind of click and get their timing, Garrett Wilson's a risk an elite receiver and they'll start figuring it out. New England gave up 129 yards to DK Metcalf last game. They gave 117 yards to JSN. So they can give up a lot of receiving yards to the wide receiver position. So I like Garrett Wilson over 64 and a half receiving yards. Now the play that won't make the card because it's a longest reception. I also like Garrett Wilson over his 22.5 longest reception. No, New England has been giving up a big play like crazy. They gave up a 56 yard bomb to DK. They gave up a 24 yarder to JSN. Even Jamar Chase when Cincinnati was struggling in week one, they gave him a 20 28 yard bomb to him as well. Now Garrett Wilson, although he hasn't covered his receiving yards, he did cover one out of two over this line so far for the longest catch. He got 26 yard versus Tennessee. He got an 18 yard versus San Fran. So he was right there at that cusp of the 22 and a half. Last year in 2023, he covered this prop in the two out of two games versus the same New England defense. And that was with Zach Wilson thrown in the ball. So this is a good look for him to get over 22 and a half receiving as soon as longest reception. Our next play on the game is we're going to take Antonio Gibson, the secondary running back for the New England Patriots to go over 20.5 rushing yards. Now I see it's ticked up to 22.5 on Fandal and 23.5 on DraftKings. I still like it right at that 22. The 23 is kind of pushing it, but if you're going to take it, I still don't mind it. So in his first game, he had seven attempts for 18 yards, which is not great, but that's still right at that 20.5 marker we're looking for. And then last week he went crazy. He went 11 rushes for 96 yards. He was an absolute beast last year. So he's earned more reps. So you can see the, the, the tale of the story is going, right? He's got seven attempts in the first game. He's got 11 attempts. And that's just what New England wants to do. They want to run on first. They want to run on second. If it's close enough, they'll run on third. If not, it's going to be a short pass from Jacobi Bursett and then do it all over again. Run, run, run. Now, Romandre Stevenson has 46 rushing attempts over the first two games. That's unsustainable. They know they need to get Antonio Gibson involved. Now, most offenses have a like thunder and lightning kind of split where they have a big kind of bruising first and second down back. And then they have a kind of scat back, a fast pass catching back. However, in New England, both of these guys are six foot 228 pounds. They can both play all three downs, which I kind of feel is, is a better strategy than having the thunder and lightning. When the thunder's in, you know, it's a running play. When the lightning's in, you know, it's a passing play. But when, but either one of these guys can be exchanged for third down, first down, second down, it doesn't matter. It's tough for defenses to decide whether it's going to be a pass or a run. So, and I mean, let's be honest, let's see what the jets have given up so far this year. They, they let Jordan Mason scorched them for 147 rushing guards in the first game. And Tony Pollard and Spears, they both covered their numbers. There was a lower number at 50.5 for Tony Pollard, but he still ended up with 65. So, we covered that. So, they've let the running backs cover and back to back games. I think Antonio Gibson is getting over 20.5 rushing yards. Our last play on this game that can be added to our same game parlay is kind of a cute, sneaky one here. We're going to take Hunter Henry over half of a receiving yard in the first quarter. Now, this is a kind of a tricky one here. Now, Hunter Henry and Jacobi Percette have really clicked. They click like crazy last game. Hunter Henry went over 100 yards last game versus Seattle. Now, he's kind of found his security blanket in him and especially on a prime time Thursday night football game. In the first quarter, you want to get a couple of easy passes out of the way. And I feel like a quick dump off the middle to Hunter Henry's coming. Now, Hunter Henry, last game had four catches for 47 yards in the first quarter alone. And we're looking for one yard. He had 47 last week. The week before, he only had two catches for 18 yards. However, one of them was for one catch for six yards in the first quarter as well. So, we covered in both of these two games. Now, the Jets have given up a catch in the first quarter to the tight end in both of their games. They let Josh Wile go two for 13 in the first quarter. And, of course, they let George Kittle go one for six in the first quarter. So, it's kind of a sneaky play. It comes in at a minus 113. So, I like the number on it as well. So, those are our four plays, but you can't put the longest reception because it's correlated with the yards. So, we're going to take Garrett Wilson over at 64 and a half receiving yards. Antonio Gibson over 20 and a half rushing yards and Hunter Henry over half of a receiving yard in the first quarter. All right, guys, That's a lot of info. If you're rocking with me, let's roll.