Archive.fm

PFT Live with Mike Florio

NFL Week 3 Picks: "A pledge pin?!?!"

Mike (@ProFootballTalk) called the Buccaneers upset over the Lions last week, and he has 3 more underdogs winning this week. And Chris (@CSimmsQB) has a bold prediction for the Ravens-Cowboys Desperation Bowl. Plus, why are we seeing so many field goals and so few touchdowns?

Broadcast on:
19 Sep 2024
Audio Format:
other

(0:00) We've improved Florio's headshot.

(5:20) TNF: Patriots at Jets

(10:35) SUNDAY EARLY: Giants at Browns

(13:45) Bears at Colts

(16:05) Texans at Vikings

(19:40) Eagles at Saints

(23:20) Chargers at Steelers

(26:20) Broncos at Buccaneers

(27:50) Packers at Titans

(30:25) SUNDAY LATE: Panthers at Raiders

(32:40) Dolphins at Seahawks

(35:25) Lions at Cardinals

(39:30) Ravens at Cowboys

(42:00) 49ers at Rams

(46:55) SNF: Chiefs at Falcons

(51:15) MNF: Jaguars at Bills

(52:40) MNF: Commanders at Bengals

(54:40) Best Bets & Folsom Prison Blues

The five-dollar meal deal at McDonald's means you get to pick between a Mac-double or a Mac-chicken. Then get a small fry, a small drink, and a four-piece Macnuggets. That's a lot of McDonald's for not a lot of money. Get the five-dollar meal deal today. Prices and participation may vary for a limited time only. "I will be healthy!" First of all, congratulations on becoming the official grill-and-bar sponsor of the National Football League. How does it feel to serve up the NFL? Man, it's a real dream come true. I'm glad we'll be able to serve up some extra heat this season. Do you have any plans to celebrate? Absolutely. We're going to serve up America's favorite bowling swings for just 50 cents each to kick off the season. Any of our sources, whether it's in restaurant or to go, it don't matter. It's all 50 cents all the time. Are you worried at all about any competition this season? What competition? Limited time, price, participation in selection may vary, tax and gratuity excluded. This episode is brought to you by Progressive. Most of you aren't just listening right now. You're multitasking. But what if you could also be saving money by switching to Progressive? Drivers you save by switching save nearly $750 on average and auto customers qualify for an average of seven discounts. So, multi-task right now. Get your quote now at Progressive.com. Progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates national average 12 months savings of $744 by new customers surveyed who saved with progressive between June 2022 and May 2023. Potential savings will vary discounts not available in all states and situations. I accused you on a couple of occasions of allowing your narrative to inform your kit. I am allowing my narrative to inform my kit. If the Buccaneers are going to be as good this year as I think they are, the dogs will be eating the cats in this one. Oh, the baby, they were eating cats in Michigan. Bam. Barely. Ohio and Michigan are eating animals now, huh? What's going on here? I needed that one badly last week. Badly did I need that one because that one ended up being the difference in the five games on which we disagreed. I got three of them right. Thanks to Baker Mayfield and company. One of the best games of the year so far. Exciting back and forth. What the hell is that? It's even better. I like you didn't like your other one. So, they did this. Now you're now you're, you know, you're is that that's when he was in the wrong spot in the pregame show for the. Oh, that's good. That's awesome. I love it. I love it. That's good. Feel free guys to put that video up whenever you want to. It's an all time video. It's really great. I was in the right spot as I was assigned in the rehearsal. That's why rehearsal is a problem. Rehearsal puts ideas in your head that aren't necessarily removed from your head. Yeah. So, I told him rehearsal. Here's where I need to go. Right. And I went there without being told, you know, after the fact that I should stand somewhere else. But anyway, it was fun. It was fun. It was great. It was almost two weeks. I was thinking about this the other day. Right. Like two weeks ago, we were starting the season. We're already into week three. It moves so fast and there's a rhythm to the season. You know, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, it's the same every week, every week, every week. So, here we are already at week three before we know it. It's going to be week six, week ten, et cetera. And we're starting to figure some things out. But at the same time, we don't know what the hell's going on. Do you ever know what's going on in the NFL? No. I was feeling good week one at 13 and three. Last week, nine and seven, I think. I think week two, I think week two is the hardest week to pick games in football almost every year. It's, yeah, the teams that are all in one, like you and I always talk about on the PFT, right? They're desperate. They're feeling the pressure already. Oh my gosh, we can't go to 0 and 2, right? Some of the matchups that happened in week one, oh wait, how good is this team that this team beat, right? So, there's so many things. Teams are still getting better and going through the early like season. We're working the kinks out of our football team. So, it is a tough week. I do think we have a little bit better picture this week as compared to last week. And hopefully that'll show in our results of our picks there. Well, we'll see how it goes. But I did extend my lead from two games to three or three games to four. Either way, I'm ahead. Two, now three. Three games. Three games straight up. Yep, you got a game in all things except best bets. Right, right. And best bets, I'm one behind you. I'm three and three and best bets, which is not good. Not good. We always struggle in best bets. Those are supposed to be our best bets, which just proves to you nobody knows what the hell is going to do. Well, I'm four or two. So, I mean, I'm right, 66% of the time. And, I mean, if it weren't for the Ravens being, I mean, it's odd to say one of the best teams in football is one of the, I don't want to say, you know, one of the least clutch teams in the game is incredible. We were sitting there, right? And I'm going, oh, they're about to dominate them. They're going to just, this game's about to be over and they didn't do it. That one hurt me on Sunday for sure. We both are dead in the gutter from last week. Yes, we are. I'm dead twice. I've been shot. Both brains. I'm dead. Both brains. That's good. Both brains. By the way, this is the joint PFTPM Christians on button podcast delivered by Little Caesars, the official pizza sponsor of the National Football League. Pizza Pizza. Yes. What all little Caesars? You know I'm coming. Yes. So you can go pizza pizza. I drove by Little Caesars yesterday. And if I wasn't in a hurry, I would have stopped in and got pizza pizza. Oh, I mean, I'm probably going to drive up there later today and get one or two for tonight's game. They should give you some sort of coupon that could allow you to walk in there and get a free pizza for all the good reads we do here. And how many times we say pizza pizza? I got no problem paying retail, especially when it's affordable. And Little Caesars pizza, extremely affordable. Yeah. Extremely good. Yeah. Go get Little Caesars pizza right now. Well, listen to us first and then go get Little Caesars pizza. All right. So here we go this week, every week, not just this week, you can play along with us. DraftKings has set up the free $1,000 Florio and Sims pick and pull, pick every game against the spread for a chance at a $1,000 prize pool every single week. Download the DraftKings app, click on the pools tab and enter the Florio and Sims free $1,000 pick and pull to make your picks. And just like us, you must enter all of your picks before kickoff of the first game of the week on Thursday night, which means you are flying blind on injury reports. You don't know who's question, but we don't know who's out. You don't know who's going to be an active yada, yada, yada, but too bad. We're all in the same boat. All right. Tonight, at least we have complete, or we think, information for tonight's game, Patriots Jets week three Thursday night football. I like this one because I got no idea what's going to happen. Yeah. The Jets easily could be 0 and 2. The Patriots easily could be 2 and 0. Patriots better than we thought they'd be. Jets still kind of in that which way is it going to break for them? Yeah. And tonight's game, I think, is pivotal in giving us an idea of which way it's going to go. I agree. I mean, I expect a good football game here. First off, I don't think the Jets are capable of really blowing anybody out right now. With Aaron Rodgers still kind of getting his feet underneath them a little bit, then figuring out their offense and all that. They're not an offensive juggernaut, as we know. You said it right. They could have easily lost last week. I mean, they were in danger of going down two scores there until Will Levis went full traffic thunder and tried to throw the ball backwards and do all that stuff there. So I expect a close football game. I'm not going to lie. I'm going with the Jets, but I thought about picking the upset here in this one. I do because one as simple as the Jets' offense is, and you know, I don't love their offensive attack all the way. Girard Mayo is going to be all over some of this stuff on the defensive side of the ball. So I don't think that's going to be them marching up and down the field. The defense in New England is real, okay? So that's the first thing I look at. And then the other side, hey, we've seen, you know, the Jets run defense was better last week. But I think this is a better group they're facing this week as far as the offense aligns concerned. And the one thing the Patriots have done so far is they run the ball about as good as anybody in football. And we know the Jets got torn apart in week one against the 49ers and that run attack. So I do think the Patriots can have some success control in the clock moving the ball on the ground. Having said that with the energy of that stadium tonight and people are going to be so excited to see the unveiling of Rogers part two, I'm going to go with the Jets in a close one, 20 to 16. So you have the New England Patriots covered in six points spread. Right. The over under is 38 and a half. I'm going to say a couple of things I said earlier today on PFT live. Okay. Since you used to be there. I don't know. I don't know what happened. You used to be there. Now you're not. You're such an asshole. You really are. Well, I load the ODO. I wonder about the institutional knowledge within the Patriots organization about Aaron Rogers. Whatever Gerard Mayo has picked up from Bill Belichick, whether it's the rare occasions they face Rogers or just the overall planning. Discussion. Look at this. Look at what he can do. He had to have been last year in the off season coming up with some idea for what they were going to do when they faced Aaron Rogers, even though they never did. I just wonder what's left over from Belichick that Gerard Mayo is going to utilize. And the other thing too that flashed for me as we were talking about earlier today, Chris. Right. A lot of checkdowns to the running backs by Aaron Rogers. No doubt. And I thought of something that Kyle Shanahan said this week when trying to explain away the manner in which Brian Flores, the Vikings defensive coordinator. Completely dismantles the San Francisco offense. That unpredictability of who's coming and who's not coming forces you to keep the back in the backfield in the event. Somebody blitzes. That's a way to take the checkdowns out of the game. Now, if they start doing that stuff with Rogers, he still may be able to pick them apart down the field and find the open holes. But I could see something complicated like that. I hear you. Making them pay for, you know, if you, if you're going to put the back out into the flat, you're going to open up a lane for somebody. And even do a delayed blitz and chase down. Roger. Listen, I think the Jets offense is, is definitely got some things that the defensive coordinators and football can look at and go wait. I have a pretty good feel for how they protect here. The rules, all that, some of the route combinations and excuse me. And I would expect that Patriots defense to be all over the some of that stuff, let alone, like you've heard me say, we've only seen Aaron Rogers throw the ball down the field when it's a one-on-one shot with somebody outside. With somebody outside the numbers. I know he threw the long touchdown pass against the 49ers. The Lazard and the penalty. But we haven't really seen him like throw a 20 yard in cut into a window or a crosser route down the field or a post route. You know, there's been nothing that he's very safe. He's very conservative. And you know, that's an issue with me. And that's where I don't think you can win the Super Bowl playing that way anymore. And we'll see where it goes. And we'll see maybe if they can be a little more aggressive tonight against this Patriots team. What's your score, big guy? Doesn't want to cut into that touchdown interception. Yeah, I hear you there. I am going to go with the Patriots 24 to 17. I do all my scores before I look at the lines. I don't want to be influenced by the lines one way or the other. So I've inadvertently and I've only picked the Jets to cover by a point 24 to 17. Well, you pick the new England to win or the Jets? No, I said Jets. Okay, you said Patriots twice actually. Okay, so don't tell us what you didn't say. Okay, you said you're getting old. Okay, come on there, man. Let's go. Some of us did a two hour show earlier today. All right, the Jets 24 to 17. We go to Sunday. It's the OBJ game, even though he currently plays for neither team. Giants at the Browns, Browns favored by six and a half after getting themselves off the Schneider last week against the Jaguars, Giants not good. Had a chance to win last week, did not over under a 38 and a half at first energy stadium, although that's not the name anymore. It's Huntington Bank, I think, but I don't know. And I don't really care because they don't pay us to say the corporate sponsors of NFL stadiums. So all that said, who do you like? Well, I'm excited for this game. I mean, I like Cleveland. Let me just state that right off the bat. Cleveland only showed the ability to run the ball, string together some drives. It's not sexy. We know that. I could see this being a week where we see a little more success out of Deshawn Watson. Like we've talked about in previous weeks, the Giants secondary is a problem. It definitely is. And I think to a problem to where they're so worried about protecting it, teams like Washington last week ran all over them and that way too. The tackles for Cleveland are healthy. So yes, I think that's a positive there and I give Cleveland a little advantage against that Giants defense certainly. And then I look at the other side of the ball and hey, there were some positives there. The Giants online is better. It's serviceable this year. So that's something you can hang your hat on and we saw Malik neighbors is the real deal. But I just still think this Browns defense is too talented and going to have too many answers and too aggressive and I think they're just going to slowly wear down the Giants altogether. I'm going to go with the Browns 2413 in this one. Yeah, I just don't think that Giants have the horses offensively to keep up with that Cleveland defense, especially, you know, they kind of got the mulligan. They earned the mulligan for week one by getting a win in Jacksonville that many believe they wouldn't get. So they've they've gotten themselves right and now they get a chance to feast on a team they should beat. And if they should somehow lose this one, it's five alarm, fire time in Cleveland. I think the defense will be all over Daniel Jones. We've already seen one quarterback get benched. I think Jones is moving toward that in part because he's got 25 million in injury guarantees for next year. So it's the Russell Wilson bubble wrap that will be coming for him at some point. I think before we get to the point where they're they're not mathematically eliminated, but essentially eliminated. I think they'll they'll try to shake things up to see if they can salvage the season. It could be coming sooner than expected. I think he's going to have a rough time on Sunday. I've got 17 to six Browns over the Giants. I've started to skew my scores lower because I want exciting games. So I tend to pick higher scores. Yeah. And I said screw that. Yeah, the scoring's down. I got I got to shave off 10 points, shave 10 points off of every one of these games. I hear you. I there was that went through my my head to a little bit writing down some of these scores going on. Wait, is this too many points here? I don't know if these teams are capable of doing that. Yeah, it's definitely something you got to keep in mind right now with the current state of the NFL. Bears at the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium. Caleb Williams looking for his first career touchdown pass. Anthony Richardson, the ultimate NFL amusement park ride because you never know what's going to happen. Thrills, chills and spills, long touchdown, dramatic throw that ends up going into a crowd of seven defenders. It's fun to watch unless you're a Colts fan. One and a half points. The Colts are favored against the bears over under a 43. Who do you like? Well, I can't trust the bears right now. I got to see something on the offensive side of the ball before I can start go. Okay, I'm going to pick the bears again. There's been nothing to look at. You know, one, we know the offensive line play has not been good. They've misevaluated the talent of that group right there. They can't protect Caleb Williams. They can't run the football. Right. And hey, I thought they were kind of headed in the right direction at the end of last year, but certainly not. So that has been a detriment to their football team. And I think with that added the fact that I don't like what they do on the offensive side of the ball. I just, there's not enough creativity there. There's really not. There's nothing that backs anybody or makes a defense think right now. So that's a little scary to me. And even though I don't think the Colts are great on defense, I think they're good enough to slow down this group and this attack right now. Keenan Allen, his health, the Roma Dunes, his health. What are they going to do there? And then you couple that with not being able to run the football in Chicago. Yeah, too much is on Caleb Williams. And he's not ready to to bear that burden of carrying the team. And the Colts offense, the one thing it can do is run the football. And within that the bears can stop the run. I get that. But I think they're going to have to worry so much about a pretty good running attack with everything they do there that it'll lead to a few big plays in the past game this week, where Anthony Richardson. So I'm going to go Colts 20 to 17 at home. They get their first win. I got 17 13. Again, I shaved off some points, but the Bears offense needs to do something before I will believe in them. The running game isn't there. DeAndre Swift averaging under two yards of Carrie Khalil Herbert adding a short touchdown, but not doing much otherwise. Passing game still not there yet. Not enough protection for Caleb Williams. Colts desperate to get a win after almost beating the Texans. Giving the Packers maybe more than we expected because the Packers could have delivered our early knockout blow and failed to do so. 17 13 Colts get to one and two. We move on to one of the best games of the day, Minnesota hosting the Houston Texans. Texans come in as two point favorites with an over under of 46 should be a great game. Who do you see prevailing? This is, I'm excited for this one. I mean, again, like last week with Minnesota, you get excited for the coaching matchup of O'Connell and Flores versus Shanahan and Sorensen. This week it's very similar. Yeah. I mean, that same group, O'Connell and Flores versus Demico Ryan's and Bobby Slowick. I mean, the Vikings are basically playing a team with the same exact system from the week before, right? So who has the advantage there? The team that played the team like that or the team that goes, wait, we're getting to watch you play a team like us and now we're getting to see what you do in those. That's a tough call. I don't know, right? But I do think that the Minnesota Vikings are every bit worthy of winning this game and being in this game and I'm going to take them to do it. I am. One, I think Flores and company and being at home and we know how tough it is to play in Minnesota, I think they're going to pose problems for this, this Texans offense. I do. And we've seen the Texans offense. Hey, first week, it ran good. They ran the ball well, but they didn't blow us away with the pass game stuff. Same thing last week. Last week, they didn't even run the ball that well and the pass game was solid, but we weren't like, Oh man, it's taken over the game. Watch out. I think we'll see similar this week. And I think another week of this offense, understanding the Demico, Ryan's, the 49ers rules, I think they're going to come up with more ideas. I think they match up well with the Texans. I'm going to take the Vikings at home 27 24 to go to three and oh, I got 26 23. So it's not exactly the same score. I tried to be a little cute because I always skew toward the more predictable numbers. I just bad, I've just gut feeling 26 23. Now I'll say this, what would be interesting to know as they study the film of last week with the Vikings always confusing you like. And I doubt that Brian Flores leaves any breadcrumbs in the pre snap formation is there. I mean, that would be the challenge if you're the Texans, pouring over the film to find any clue how a guy stands, how he's leaning where he's looking. I hear you any clue what's coming after the snap. Is there a code that you can crack based on what they did last year and what they've done so far this year? That would be the challenge because you want to get an edge. You want to know what's coming. And if it's loud in there, it makes it even harder. That gives the defense that extra little advantage because they're in silent count. It's a lot for CJ Stroud to process. I think it's going to be difficult. It's going to be difficult for any quarterback in that stadium as long as they feel like the Vikings are better than anyone expected them to be so far. They are 26 23. Joe mixin banged up. That helps the Vikings. Yeah, don't know about I can run the ball this way. Oh, Ty Chandler had 82 yards last week. Aaron Jones went healthy and he's already a little banged up, but between Jones and Chandler, they're in good shape. And it's been fun to watch so far. And it's been a surprise. I'm not. I'm not. I really thought this would be one where we'd be different here. I thought you'd be Dr. Doom and tell me. But damn, okay. All right. We've I don't feel as good now that you picked it. Damn. I did the emotional hedge last week. This week I'm all in. I feel like they can get to three and oh, which really will be a shock if it happens. Eagles at the Saints. Before the season started, the Eagles were three and a half point favorites for this game. Now, the Saints are two and a half point favorites and for good reason. They blew out the Panthers, which really wasn't all that impressive. Then they went to Dallas and hung the first regular season loss at home on the Cowboys in two years. They've looked great. 15 drives, 15 scores, unstoppable offense. Defense has been stout under Dennis Allen. Eagles come in short week, a little disheveled after the way the game ended on Monday night. I wish that you and I would have been able to break that down on Tuesday morning. Although Devon and I had a lot of fun talking about how the Eagles pissed down their leg and blew that game. Yeah. Will they piss down their leg again at the Superdome? I'm excited for this one too. This is another one that I like. Like the Texans Vikings I'd go that would classify as game of the day type of material. Certainly you talk about big, strong physical, nasty offense and defense alignment. This game's got punting of it. Definitely. The Saints, as you heard me say on Monday morning on PFT with you or even like to me, it's the most fun watch in football right now. I can't even believe I'm saying it. And I don't expect it to change a whole lot. I'm not ready. Like we've talked about some other teams. I got to see more out of this Eagles defense. The Eagles defense is getting shredded in both games, run past whatever teams are doing whatever they want. And this attack, this is a really good offensive line in New Orleans. And of course, we know like it's time we start saying Rashid Shaheed is one of the best receivers in football. It's that it's not like, Oh, this is like just some miracle gamer too. He's real him and Allah being that combo there is real. I think they're going to pose some problems for this Eagles defense because they can run it just as equally as as dangerously as they can throw bombs down the football field. Let alone I like the Eagles new offense. I do think it's really good. And Jalen hurts. As we saw the other night, he is running really well. I still think Sake wants a hell of a football player. AJ Brown and his health, I think is definitely something to look at or question with this football game. But I think the Saints with Dennis Allen and how their coach and having enough big people on the D line and depth behind it, I think they can slow down this Eagles attack. I'm going to take the Saints. I'm taking the Saints 28 24 at home and they go to 3 and 0 31 28 Saints. Let me check the line is that yeah, that's a cover for the Saints. AJ Brown said to Lisa Salters on Monday night, he's going to miss a couple of weeks, right? It was a freak thing that happened at practice on Friday. Now Nick Sirianni tried to put the toothpaste back in the tube because you want to have the uncertainty heading into the preparation and they really could have used him on that last drive after the Monday. Well, that's when it really showed. One thing that's getting lost in translation with that last drive the other night is that that was a horrible interception by Jalen Hertz. They had one time out left and they're like 15 yards away from being in field goal range to win the football game. So because of the Sirianni dumb four third down call in the past all that, it's given that free pass to Jalen Hertz for the stupid decision at the end of the game where they're going to be there and it's they're still in a spot where they're I was like, man, they're going to win this game. It's it doesn't matter that Elena scored late, but that was bad too. So bad all around by the Eagles offense. Bad all around the defense was not ready to go back out and play the offense screwed it up with that call on third and three and the interception. You're right. It felt like there. Jake Elliott was going to have a chance to win the game, but it wasn't to be. All right, next game. Ooh, chargers at Steelers, old school slobber knocker, Michigan, Ohio state ramifications as Jim Harbaugh takes on Justin Fields. Pittsburgh favored by one and a half with an over under of 36. What a shot. The lowest over under of the week at 36 points. Both teams two and oh, which one will be three and oh, well, go ahead. You're your Steelers fan. So that that's your AFC squad to give me your breakdown there, Johnny Stiehler. I'm concerned about the Justin Herbert ankle injury because if it's not Herbert playing quarterback, that's a tougher game for the chargers. But hey, I've said for years Jim Harbaugh needs to be back in the NFL and I've been a firm believer. He can turn a team around immediately. The first two wins. Okay, Raiders Panthers. This is the test and I think the wild card in all of this is J. K. Dobbins. He's averaging 9.9 yards per carry for two weeks. He's leading the NFL in rushing. He's healthy. He's got superstar potential when healthy and he's got three games against the Steelers in his career while he played for the Ravens and over 320 rushing yards against the Steelers, including 120 on only 15 carries. The only time he ever played in Pittsburgh in his career. I think he's the difference in this game. I think the Steelers fall to Jim Harbaugh and the chargers by a very Harbaugh Steelers score of 16, 13. Yeah, I kind of see it the same way. I mean, I'm picking this game as Herbert's going to play and be okay, right to a degree. I think to me, the difference is I think I have a little more faith like you're saying in the Chargers offense compared to the Steelers offense right now. And I think the Chargers defense, Chargers defense, like the Steelers, it's really good. Like it's real deal. Them, Jesse Mentor, what he's done is the defensive coordinator there. They're very creative. They got pretty damn good talent. I have a hard time thinking. Pittsburgh is going to be able to move the ball consistently against this Chargers defense. And then I don't think it's going to be pretty out of offense, but you're right. If there's one team that can out stealer the Steelers in Pittsburgh, it's a Jim Harbaugh type of team. They play that same way. I'm going to go Chargers 20 to 17. I don't like that we're on the same picks to this degree so far. It's kind of annoying. Think about this. They've known since May that Jim Harbaugh was going to Pittsburgh week three. How much time do you think Jim and John have spent talking about the Steelers? John has every interest, even though he's competing indirectly with Jim for playoff positioning wild card and whatnot. He wants to see the Steelers lose. He's got no reason to not empty the tank and give Jim everything he needs to try to beat the Steelers. I hadn't thought about that until just now. I really do think Jim Harbaugh and company are going to pull off the win. Okay. Next game, Broncos, Buccaneers don't need much time for this one. Bucks are six and a half point favorites. Bucks are one of the best teams in the NFL. Broncos are a work in progress and I'm still waiting to see the progress. Who do you like? Yeah, I mean, I have the same thoughts as you. You know, a little bit like what we said with the Bears. I can't pick the Broncos until I start to see the offense function at a, you know, as a mid level NFL offensive team so far that they've been less than that to this point. We know that and this is not the, I don't think the group where you're going to get things jump started in Tampa Bay, Todd Bowles, creativity, big people up front, you're not going to be able to run the ball on them. You don't have great weapons in the past game. In many ways, the Bucks offense has shown the ability to strike and make big plays. So yes, I'm with you that way. I'm going Bucks 27, 16 in this one. I mean, really, what do the Broncos have other than Cortland Sutton who last year had a knack for making a big catch every game when he had a quarterback, they could deliver the ball. Right. What do the Broncos really have? What do they do? Well, on either side of the ball and their defense, I think is better than they get credit for because they're avoiding getting blown out. Yeah. When their offense can't do anything. Right. I think they get blown out this weekend relative to their other outcomes 34, 17 bucks win, Bucks get to three and oh, Bucks can't hide anymore. I got them up to number three in my power rankings and I think they're pissed at me that I have them so high. They, they want to be overlooked. They want to be underrated. Well, too late for that. When you beat the lions in Detroit, people are going to pay attention. Last one Packers Titans yet again, the Packers underdogs. Titans favored by two Titans are own too. Will Levis's Carson Wentz, the only thing he hasn't done yet is try to make a throw left handed from his own end zone that would inevitably be picked off. 38 is the over under. Who do you like in this one? Yeah, I mean, again, it feels like the line is that way all because of the quarterback situation with green bet. And as we've heard, I think there's a chance Jordan Love does play this week. And even if he doesn't, it's, it's not going to skew my thoughts a whole lot differently. Malik Willis, that was a good star last week. I think they'll take the training wheels off a little bit more this week and allow him to throw and be aggressive. But I think again, it goes back into what we talked about. People continue to disrespect the culture of the Packers and who they are as a team. And I can't believe it's being made as like, Oh, they're just a, you know, a quarterback type of team. That's the difference of them. They're not as we saw last week. It's one of the best rushing attacks in football. Their defense has got playmakers there. I expect them to win this one. I don't expect it to be pretty. I don't. I think the Titans are sneaky a pain in the ass. Their run games. Okay. Calvin Ridley's a pain in the butt, right? They're kind of well coached on defense. We saw them give the jets fits last week, but I still am going to take the Packers in a close one. I got them 23 20. I got 20 to 16. So we feel the same way about it. And you know, they're, they're getting these wins without Jordan love. This is money in the bank and love could be back as soon as week four. I originally was told right after the injury and the MRI ended up better than they could have expected week four to week six. And there's already some chatter that maybe he can play this week. I think they're playing the okey doke with us a little bit on that. I think it's going to be Malik Willis. Either way, either way, I think the Packers pull off the victory. No disagreements yet. Uh oh, uh oh, we'll see if we have any when we look at the late afternoon Sunday games for week three on the joint enterprise of the PFT PM and Chris Simms Unbuttoned Hicks podcast delivered by a little season. The $5 meal deal at McDonald's means you get to pick between a Mac Double or a Mac Chicken. Then get a small fry, a small drink, and a four piece McNuggets. That's a lot of McDonald's for not a lot of money. Get the $5 meal deal today. Prices in participation may vary for a limited time only. Hey Applebee's, congrats on becoming the official grilling bar sponsor of the NFL. How does it feel? I'm glad we'll be able to bring some extra heat. Any plans to celebrate? Yeah, we got to serve up America's favorite boneless wings for just 50 cents each to get off the season. Limited time price participation in selection may vary tax number two to be excluded. This time of year, Saturdays mean one thing and one thing only. College football, with Sling, you get access to hundreds of games and the biggest network starting at $40 a month. That's just $40 a month. Sling takes your love of college football to the next level. It's a no-brainer. Streaming games and saving on them too, and it's not just college football. Sling has live sports, news, entertainment channels you love, and less of the ones you don't. So you save hundreds of dollars on live TV. Sling also lets you choose and customize your channel lineup so you can choose the channels you actually like to watch. Sling's cloud DVR lets you record your shows to watch on your schedule. There's no complex technology, no long-term contracts, and no hidden rigamarole. Get rewarded for watching college football. Sling lets you do that. Visit sling.com/play to learn more and get started. That's sling.com/play. Sling.com/play. DraftKings Sportsbook is the number one place to bet touchdowns and new customers can bet $5 and get $250 in bonus bets instantly plus get one month of NFL plus premium download the app and use promo code PFT Live when you sign up. DraftKings Sportsbook, the crown is yours. Okay, Panthers Raiders, Raiders at home. Five-point favorites with Andy Dalton rolling into town, Bryce Young, benched dysfunctional teams, do dysfunctional things. Although we saw a dysfunctional Colts team go into Las Vegas and win a couple of years ago after they fired their coach and plucked Jeff Saturday out of the ESPN studio. Do we see the Panthers pull off their first win of the season this Sunday, Chris? I do think they're going to get an Andy Dalton bump, right? I do think there's something there. I mean, again, by all due accounts, you read between the lines, you'll listen to what people say and Andy Dalton has been the better quarterback for their, all OTAs and all training camp, right? And I think I give them a credit, right? For, I think the dysfunctional thing would have been to keep Bryce Young and as a starter, really. It's that bad, Mike. I mean, it's like, how can the team have any hope, any chance? I watched the film of that game on Tuesday morning. I mean, the receivers are after every player like, man, oh, he could have thrown it to me, but he didn't. I mean, the whole offense has nothing going. Let alone the quarterbacks, not going to lead them out of that. So I think it's the proper thing. Maybe he can readjust, regain some confidence, let the game slow down, watch him on the sidelines. Either way, though, yeah, I can't pick the Panthers. I can't. Not that I think the Raiders are a juggernaut, but the one thing that I will not mess up anymore is the Raiders defense is real. It is. And we know Max Crosby talked about him on Sunday night as one of my headliners. He was phenomenal in the game last week. So I just think that, yes, they're too good on that side of the ball for me to think Andy Dalton is going to make a whole big difference. And Carolina's defense is not special either. So I like the Raiders kind of tough and ugly 20 to 13 at home in Vegas. I think it's going to be that plus one more touchdown for the Raiders. I love the quote from yesterday, Gartner Minshew explaining that after he threw an interception against the Ravens, Max Gros became over to him, gave him a pep talk. We need the Washington state gardener Minshew and he accessed that. And I think there's a symbiosis there between those two guys. One's the leader of the defense, one's becoming a leader of the offense. They got a win that they never should have gotten last week. And maybe they use that as the kick in the ass to move forward. I don't know how far it goes, but 27 13 is the win that I think they get this weekend and they try to build on it moving forward. All right. Dolphins at the Seahawks. Dolphins well documented quarterback issues to a Tonga by Loa on injured reserve. They've got Skyler Thompson and Tyler Huntley now on the roster. Seahawks are favored by four and a half. They are a sneaky 2 and 0. They beat the Broncos in kind of sluggish boring fashion. They took the Patriots to overtime and won that game to get to 2 and 0. Do they get to 3 and 0 with a win over the Dolphins who really are kind of in flux right now without Tua. Yeah, definitely in flux. It's hard to sit there and go. Oh, I'm going to pick them. I mean, of course, they're dangerous. They got playmakers. We know that. But again, last week was what we've talked about with the Dolphins really for a year and a half when it's not a when it's not a track meet, right? And I know week one, it was better. And we thought, Oh, maybe, but when it's not a track meet and all of a sudden we see, wait, they took away a few McDaniel's tricks and Q plays. Oh, what else is there? That concerns me. Let alone. I don't know how good that Dolphins defense is. I think the Seahawks offense is a pain in the butt. Kenneth Walker. I know his injury status is an issue there. But Charbonne is good. I think they can run block a little bit better than years past. I do expect them to move the ball passing it. And at the same time, too. Yeah, Skyler Thompson in that environment in Seattle with with the Mike McDonald defense and everything there. I'm certainly favoring the Seahawks. I think the Dolphins give a tough effort. I'm going to have them cover the spread, but I'm going. Excuse me. Where the heck did I put this? I'm getting to it. I'm going Seahawks 24 21. I got 20 to 13 Seahawks. I really think this is a difficult spot for the Dolphins. They go from that surge of adrenaline and confidence winning the tough game coming from behind against the Jaguars. I thought last week it was just too much emotionally taken out of them. And it looked that way before the to a concussion. Yeah, right. The to a concussion is the punch in the gut. That offense is so fun to watch with all the. It's almost like a show game with all the who's got the ball. But when it's time to throw it down the field. Yeah. Yeah. Right. There were three interceptions and they were all to his fault. And and just Skylar Thompson. Do any better? I don't think so. I think their best bet is get Tyler Huntley ready. ASAFP. He may be the guy who can turn it around. I don't know when we're going to see two again. And I won't be surprised. We don't see him again this year. And I think the Dolphins still coming to terms with all that makes it hard to go across the country as far as you could travel and stay within the United States and play a game. It's going to be tough. 20 to 13 Seahawks. All right. Yep. Lions. Cardinals to the big surprises last week. Lions losing. Cardinals destroying the LA Rams and Kyler Murray looking better than ever. The Lions are favored by three 51 and a half the highest over under of the week. Who do you like? The Cardinals are a pain in the butt. Okay. They are there. Their offense has everything. I really love it. You know, I've talked about their coaching there and how impressed I am with it overall. I do have concerns with the Lions. The Lions defense is fine. They've improved certainly. It's the offense I'm actually worried about. They have not been able to just control the line of scrimmage and run the ball at the capacity I expected them to. I've always said throughout the offseason, it's one of the best offensive lines in football. It hasn't played that way yet. They they had, you know, two big runs that skewed the stats to make it look like they're running the ball good. But, you know, again, where the Lions really killed teams in the past was they would overpower you up front to where they could run it. And they just go, Hey, we know you're going to, you know, we're going to run it. It doesn't matter. And it's going to be second and five. And then the defense is like, man, it's second and five. Oh no, they might be able to run for five more yards to our first down. I got to play a run defense and then they have a play action pass and gash you down the field and all that. But they have been yet to be able to play through the run as far as play action pass or dominating the line of scrimmage in either game so far. So that's where I worry about them a little bit. But I still think they're too damn good. And I think on the road, and I don't want to say a must win game, but a big game to get back on track and, you know, last week leaving a nasty taste on the mountain. I think this is a great game certainly, but I'm going to go Detroit wins this one 30 to 28. I'm going to have Arizona cover the spread. I'm going to get accused of hating the team I pick against no matter what I do here. If I pick the lions, why do you hate the Cardinals? If you pick the Cardinals, why do you hate the Lions? I got so much shit last week for picking the bucks to beat the Lions. It was very refreshing to see that I was right. And ultimately that's all I'm trying to do folks is be right. This isn't acting out some vendetta. We're trying to be right. And I think the right call here is and I look at the Ravens. Look at how the Ravens are kind of struggling to get out of that fog that comes from and have seen so close to the Super Bowl getting knocked back down in the Lions. And remember, Dan Campbell said to the team before he tried clean up on aisle five. This may be our only shot. I mean, to be 17 point lead at halftime, to be that close and to get thrown back into the dentist green valley of zero and zero. Hey, they, they, they could have slashed, should have lost to an overmatched Rams team due to injuries. They did lose to the bucks. I think they're going to lose. I think they need a wake up call. And I don't think last week was it. They need a road wake up call and they're going to get it 24 21 Cardinals over the Lions, sending the Lions to one and two and rocketing the Cardinals to two and one and could have been three and oh, they had the bills on the ropes. They just didn't punch him through. Yeah, they definitely did. They're, they're a better football team. Right. They're one of those teams that you classify and go, I think it's a fringe playoff team when it's all said and done. And they'll continue, I think, to get more dangerous on offense as they figure out Marvin Harrison and how to use him in the passing game and all that. Hey, good for you. I certainly thought about picking the upset here too. I do think it's a coin flip of the game. And I do think with the speed of Kyle and Murray and the fact that, you know, it's not a real fast front four in Detroit. He's going to be able to buy some time and make some plays even though Aidan Hutchinson's over there. So we'll see. It's one, it won't be my best bet. I could tell you that much. He is back. Kyle Murray is to full blown meat, meat, brod runner status. It is as good as it's ever been. Yep. And Aidan Hutchinson can chase him around. He'll run through his legs if he has. I mean, it's, it's incredible to watch and we need, we need to, we need to adjust to it, factor it in and make our picks accordingly. Okay, Ravens and Cowboys desperation time for both teams. Baltimore is 0 and 2. Cowboys 1 and 1 at home, 48 and a half over under. Tom Brady's back in the building. He's the unofficial Cowboys broadcaster for this year. Who do you like? Ravens favored by one. I'm Ravens favored by one. I mean, that there is, to me, one of the otter lines of the week, the Ravens favored by one. I know Dallas is at home and they're really good that way. I mean, again, Dallas, their offensive attack. It does not mesmerize me by any stretch of the imagination. It's solid. I get that defensively. They have issues. They're not, at least talking about last year. And when we saw it last week, they can't stop the run. Their D tackles aren't very good. They get blown out of the water. Their safety is in the middle of the field. They're slow. We saw those, those New Orleans receivers run right by them like they were in mud. So I worry about that side of the ball, let alone a pissed off Ravens football team ready to go. I would be shocked if the Ravens lose this football game. I would. I don't know if I can pick a best bet or anything like that with this one because I just don't trust the Ravens to. I just don't trust them. But I do think they're the better football team here. I'm going to take them 31 to 21. I'm taking the Ravens and yeah, I don't know if I have the guts to make them a best bet for the second week in a row. Yeah, 10 points 31 21. Yeah, I've got Ravens 27 23, which I hope is 31 21 because that means people will give up and watch football night in America. I have a feeling this is one of those games that's going to be exciting down to the wire and they'll tune in at about 7 45 p.m. Eastern for the pregame show. But I think it should be a great game could be a great game. The Ravens more desperate and more talented. I think that's the equation I look at. Yeah, who's more desperate? Who's more talented? And even though the Cowboys have the big names, I think across the board, the Ravens are the better team. They get the win and they get to one and two and send the Cowboys to one to two. You know, at one point this week, Chris Jerry Jones, the owner of the Cowboys said the real pressure for Mike McCarthy is going to come in the postseason. You got to get there first. There's this presumption they're just going to get there. Yeah, I'm not so sure the team that I saw last week against the Saints. I don't think that team gets to the playoffs. We'll see if they can pull it off. All right. One more. One more? Is it one more? One more on the docket late afternoon, the 49 or seven points favorites against the Rams who basically have no one left who is healthy at this point other than quarterback Matthew Stafford. Is that enough to give the Rams a chance to win at the 49ers home away from home, 44 and a half over under again, 49ers favored by seven. Who do you like? I'm about to throw in the white towel with the Rams. It's over. It's over for the year. They're done. Almost. I'm ready almost to stick a fork in them for the year. Yes. The injuries on the offensive line, no Puke Nakoa, no Cooper Cup, right? Their offense was the part of the team that was going to have to carry the team anyways. The defense is not super, super talented. It's young, right? There's no big time difference maker in the front seven like we've talked about. Their secondary is less than it's it. Chardavius White is nothing to write home about. Joe, John Johnson's hurt, right? So they're going to miss a safety. I think the 49ers, the 49ers did a lot of good things last week. We know it was a tough environment. They messed up a few situational things and big play moments, whatever, but I think they'll be pissed off and ready to show the Rams what they got. I'm going 35, 17, 49ers. Yeah. Look, I've got the 49ers in this one too. And the 49ers, I think, feel a little desperation, even though they don't have Debo Samuel, he's out for a couple of weeks with a calf strain. It's not an Achilles, not an Achilles. They don't have Christian McCaffrey. Jordan Mason has done very well for them. Again, I picked these scores based upon blank slate, no spread. I went 23, 17. So I got to trust it. Rams cover somehow. I almost adjusted it, but I got my my first instinct. Right or wrong is what I'm going to ride with 49ers, 23, 17, which means the Rams do cover somehow in that game. We take a break when we return. Primetime games, including Patrick Mahomes against Kirk O'Chains and a Monday night sort of doubleheader, overlapping, simulcast, doubleheader, whatever. We'll do the Primetime games next on PFTPM and Chris Simms on fun. Everybody's talking about shrinkflation. Companies are now giving you less for the same prices before. At Domino's, we're giving you more. Mix and match any two medium-to-topping pizzas, and we'll upgrade one to a large for free. That's moreflation. And that's Domino's for dinner. Prices higher for some locations, select online only offer through September 29th. Prices, participation, delivery area, and charges may vary. Two item minimum, PAMP Pizza Extra, exclude specialty pizzas. Only one medium-to-topping pizza will be upgraded to a large. Are your ulcerative colitis symptoms proving difficult to manage? Trimvia, Goselcomab, can help you manage the cycle of UC symptoms. At one year, many patients taking Trimvia achieved clinical remission, and some patients also achieved endoscopic remission. Individual results may vary. Trimvia is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis. Serious allergic reactions and increased risk of infections may occur. Before treatment, your doctor should check you for infections and TB. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms, or if you need a vaccine. Ask your doctor if Trimvia can help you manage the cycle of UC symptoms. Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more, or visit TrimviaRadio.com. First of all, congratulations on becoming the official grilling bar sponsor of the National Football League. How does it feel to serve up the NFL? Man, it's a real dream come true. I'm glad we'll be able to serve up some extra heat this season. Do you have any plans to celebrate? Absolutely. We're going to serve up America's favorite bowling swings for just 50 cents each to kick off the season. Any of our sources, whether it's in restaurant or to go, it don't matter. It's all 50 cents all the time. Are you worried at all about any competition this season? What competition? Limited-time price participation in selection may vary. Taxing gratuity excluded. Draft King Sportsbook is the number one place to bet touchdowns and new customers can bet $5 and get 250 in bonus expense instantly plus get one month of NFL plus premium for free. Okay? Download the app, use promo code on button when you sign up. Draft King Sportsbook. The crown is yours. You know, you almost went Niedermeyer pledge pin with NFL plus premium of a plus premium on your uniform. Also, also, I think we need a sports book that is the number one place to bet field goals because that's really in the story of the season. Hey, so far, not touchdowns, field goals. Offences got to change the way they there's too many offenses that are too similar, right? Too many offenses. We talked about the defense alignment are way better than the offense alignment. That's an issue. And then too much of offense is letting defenses off the hook. I watch film all week. It's second. It's third and four and the defense plays for the five-yard pass and the offense plays for the five-yard pass. And I go, wait, there's all this. If they played this defense on first and 10, you'd be like, I can't believe they're playing like this. They're going to let us throw bombs against them all day. And then it becomes third and four. And they go, oh, I'm chicken shit. I want to throw out five yards. And I go, they're giving you bombs down the field. You got NFL quarterbacks. So they got to start calling the defenses bluff a little bit. That's the other problem. Third in one, we don't have to run the full back dive up the middle. You know, your $50 million quarterback can throw it to the receiver down the field when all 11 guys are at the line of scrimmage. A lot of chickens on the offense right now, let alone offenses that are just not that creative. And the defenses are like, I know all the rules here and we're all over at all. So you could tell them a little bothered by it. That's why running the football and what the 49ers do and what the Saints are doing and all that are the teams that are the best in football right now. Because they're making making you think about different things rather than just the shotgun and slant flat combination. And that's what a lot of teams have defaulted to in football and it drives me crazy. By the way, I did raise the idea with all the field goals that are being made this year, 35 of 39 from 50 plus. Yeah, raise the crossbar, shrink the uprights a little bit. Maybe the NFL would do that. I've already heard from a head coach who agrees with that sentiment. It would make those field goals a little more Scott Norwoodish if you know, because it all feels just too automatic. Now anyway, that's a topic for another day on PFT Live when Chris won't be on the show. Sunday night football, Patrick Mahomes and Kirk Cousins will be on the show. Chiefs are favored by three and a half as they go to Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Arthur Blank secures the very difficult to achieve honor of putting himself in the team's ring of honor free food and soda for everyone to distract from the fact that he put himself in his own ring of honor to the Falcons properly honor their owner on the night that he gives himself the honor of being in the ring of honor. Well, I think it's a, I think there's really a little bit of a tactical approach here too. Because as we know, the Falcons, like you saw in week one, there was more Steelers fans there than Falcons fans. You'd be in danger of that. Of course, this week, it's the Chiefs. They're becoming America's team. It's a traveling roadshow. Everybody wants to go see Patrick Mahomes and Kelsey and the Chiefs. So that, I think that's why they're probably doing it, hoping that the Falcons fans don't sell their tickets to all the Chiefs fans. But we'll see. I will say, I think the Falcons match up, excuse me, with the Chiefs pretty good. And hear me out a little bit. I do think that Rahim Morris, the style of defense that he plays, they are zone defenses. They're going to know a lot like the Bengals know how to pass off a lot of these route combinations that the Chiefs do. I don't think they're going to be in a tough spot there, where I do worry about the Falcons. It's a little bit what we saw with the Eagles that they can't really rush the passer and get there, right? And that Mahomes is going to be like, wait, nobody's open, but I'll buy three or four more seconds and somebody will get open then. That's what I do worry about. And of course, I worry about the Chiefs being able to run the ball. It's consistently good as we've seen them here in the years past without Pacheco. I don't know if we're going to be able to depend on that. So those are some things I question. I do think that offensive line, like we saw last week in the Falcons, it's good. I do think they should be able to run the ball a little bit. Are the receivers and Kirk Cousins enough scary enough though that when the Chiefs go, wait, we're going to stop the run, we'll play man to man, we'll get a little aggressive. Are you guys good enough to beat us down the field and do that? That I'm not sure about. Listen, I do think this could be an upset, but I don't have the guts to pick it. I'm going to take the Chiefs 27 24 17 excuse me 24 17 Chiefs, but I think the Falcons will be a pain in the butt all game long. I noticed on Monday night and this is one of those situations where they act like they don't hear criticism and then you see the reaction and Zach Robinson having Kirk Cousins not stand parallel feet. You see an attempt to do some play action. You see Kirk Cousins recovering some confidence in his surgically repaired right life. And I think that when they go no huddle, he doesn't think about it. And I think late in the game, he didn't have the luxury of thinking about it. And that was the moment the rust was shaken off. I give the Falcons a better chance than I would have going into this game. I still, I still look at my homes, cousins, my homes, cousins. We've seen this movie before. Kirk's got an opportunity to really change narratives beyond the primetime Kirk thing, which definitely has changed in his last two primetime games Monday night, last year, 49ers, Monday night this year, Eagles pulling victory from the jaws of defeat. It's my homes 28 24 chiefs find a way 28 24. If the Falcons would pull this one off, Holy shit NFC South bucks. Yeah. Falcons. Right. I got it. I got to see it to believe it though. Yeah. Chiefs safer pick 28 14 covering by a half. I hear you. I don't I won't make this the best bet. It scares me. And let me just say this real quick before we go Kirk cousins. That was an incredible performance. The pressure was on him about as much as any game in the history of his career. I mean, if he played bad the other night, it would have been like, what the hell did we do? Why we pay him put in Michael Pennics? All of that. That was a big time performance. And I'm with you. I think he got a little confidence in his ankle or his ankle Achilles, whatever there to be a little more aggressive as the weeks go here. Hey, it would have been on that on that Sunday night game. If Falcons fans had shown up instead of chief fans, we want Pennics. We want Pennics at some point during the game. It was critical that he looked better in week two. The other difference too. He wasn't being chased around by TJ watt. We got to move on to the next game. Okay. Monday night football Jaguars bills. Jags are 0 and 2 bills are 2 and 0 bills are favored by five. They get the extra day to rest. They go from Thursday all the way to Monday night 45 and a half over under who do you like? Yeah, Bill's at home. Jaguars offense that, you know, I just don't have a ton of confidence in. Also, I just think that it's an offense that I feel like Sean McDermott is going to be able to break down and be kind of all over it. Again, the Jags defense, I like them. I do, but it's just hard to pick when Josh Allen is kind of in the groovy's in right now. It might not be big numbers, but it's just like every got to moment or big play. He makes it like last week like you saw. It's not a great statistical day, but he made all the big plays to just go, well, you're done new. You're done, Miami. We're not going to let you hang around and keep this close. I'm going to throw a touchdown or scramble here to put you away. And I just, I have, you know, I don't have enough confidence in the Jaguars right now. I don't. So I'm going to take the bills in a close one, because I think this is a kind of a desperation game for the Jaguars. Certainly I'm going to have them covering, but I'm going to take bills 26, 23. Spirit is willing. Flesh is weak. 27, 17 bills win and the Jaguars fall to 0 and 3, one in eight in their last nine games and closer and closer to Bill Belichick being the head coach of the Jaguars next year. I'm kidding unless I'm not commanders at the Bengals to wrap up the week. It's the later start on Monday night. They're staggered this week. Commanders at Bengals, Bengals, seven and a half point favorites over under a 47 biggest spread of the week. Bengals, the most desperate team in a position, I think to get a win that they need bad. Yeah. I mean, I'm taking the bangles again. You last week, I think there's a lot of positives. They outplayed Kansas City. They did. They were the better team on the field, you know, not by enough that one mistake, you know, changed the game certainly, but I think there's silver lining there. The defense looks pretty good. I don't. The one thing I worry about is can Washington maybe run the ball on Cincinnati? If they can, that can make things a little interesting. Cincinnati's banged up, but defensive tackle. It's something to watch there, certainly. But, you know, ultimately, I think between the desperation and I think Joe Burrow and company, I would be shocked if they don't tear up Washington's past defense a little bit. We saw Daniel Jones and company kind of have their way last week. I think Joe Burrow, it's a team on a mission. I think I expect them to make a statement. 28 17 bangles. Yeah, look, the commanders would be open to but for the fact that the Giants completely mismanaged their roster and kicker position last week. I think the bangle, this is a horrible spot for the commanders. The Bengals need this one badly. 30 to 17 is my score in this one. And there really isn't much more that needs to be said about that one. I don't know how the commanders got a prime time game this early in the season. Although if you're going to see the commanders at all in prime time, you may as well see them, you know, before it's over, although I did pick them to make the playoffs. So we'll see if they can win more games than they lose. Let's take a break. Our best bets and we'll try to resuscitate ourselves in the gutter after we both blew it last week with the Folsom Prison Blues pick that's next on PFTPM and Chris Simms Unbuttoned. Welcome back to Chris Simms Unbuttoned and PFTPM. It's the picks podcast delivered by Little Caesars, the official pizza sponsor of the National Football League. And we usually are rushing through the best bets and the Folsom Prison Blues pick because we talk too much in the earlier segments. We have time to breathe a little bit, but not much. We disagree on one game straight up four against the spread. That's no fun. Let's see if we agree on best bets, Chris, which is your first one. Well, the first one is the 49ers. I'm taking the 49ers and that that's seven points against the the Los Angeles Rams. I just the Rams beat up football team. Not a good matchup for them. The 49ers, I think, will be pissed off after last week. Sorry, London. I'm taking them. I believe in the Buccaneers. I'm not going to stop now. Six and a half is not enough of a spread against an overmatched Broncos team. Bonix, a little deer in the headlight ish. Bucks great on both sides of the ball. They were awesome last week, even with some key players out. I like the bucks to cover the six and a half points spread on Sunday afternoon. Okay. I like that. I thought about that. That was certainly one on my radar. The next one I'm going to go with is the Ravens. The Ravens being favored by one. You kind of said it the right way. There's a banner statement. It's they're more desperate and they're more talented. Will they run the fucking ball? Run the damn ball. I mean, that's my problem with the Ravens. What are we good at? What are they great at? They're kind of like, Hey, we're pretty good at passing and we're pretty good at running, but they're not great at either one and they got to find something to be great at. That's why they can't close teams out at the end of football games. I got the bills Monday night given the Jaguars five. I really do think the bills have an advantage and I've noticed this recently where when a team plays on Thursday, they often don't play again until the next Monday night. That's an extra day to kind of recover. They have to feel good about what they did. They had it in hand early. It reduces some of that stress. I feel like the bills are better than a lot of people recognize. I've got them at number two in the power rankings this week. So I think they should be able to make fairly simple work of the Jaguars who seem to be falling apart at the seams. One left. Who do you got? I'm going the bangles. I am. I'm a believer in the bangles. You said it right. Washington's really kind of lucky to be one on one. They were outplayed by the Giants last week. They were and I look at Cincinnati and go, they played pretty damn good and they outplayed the Chiefs. And I think they will be on a mission this week. Just too much talent there. I don't trust that Washington defense versus Joe Burrow and company there. I got the bangles 28 17. I just I'm concerned about a backdoor cover. Yeah, I know that big of a spread. Yep. And in that kind of a game. I hear you. So I thought about that one and I went with the bills instead. Last year for me and I I don't do this very often. This is kind of like seeing a hummingbird. And I hope this one doesn't fly into the window and drop dead. Steel is chargers whoa 36 over under lowest over under the week. I think it's too high. I don't think they're scoring 36 points. I think they could play eight quarters and not score 36 points. It's going to be an old fashioned grind it out, beat the shit out of each other. I got 16 13 is the final score I predicted. I could see it being 13 10. I mean, I think it's going to go under 36 Chris. I hate doing that. That's cool. I really think that number is too high. All right. Good. Good. Good for you. I'm I don't think you're crazy with that one. Not at all. All right. Folsom Prison Blues pick for those of you who wonder what the hell are we talking about. It's that great scene from Walk the Line where Johnny Cash is encouraged to sing the one song. If he was dying in the gutter, what's the one song that you would want the world to hear? So what's the one team that we would pick to win straight up if we're lying dead in a gutter or dying? Right. Although we both were dead. I've been shot and I'm dead twice in the gutter. Okay. So I'm a cat with nine lives and I'm going with the 49ers over the Rams. Hopefully, I don't die this week. I'm going with anybody who plays the Panthers. That's my standard game. So give me the Raiders. Don't throw a drink on me, David. See you next time. All right. See you. See you jerk, Florio. Everybody's talking about shrinkflation. Companies are now giving you less for the same prices before. At Domino's, we're giving you more. Mix and match any two medium to topping pizzas and we'll upgrade one to a large for free. That's more flation. And that's Domino's for dinner. Prices higher for some locations select online only offer through September 29th. Prices participation delivery area and charges may vary to item minimum. Pan pizza extra exclude specialty pizzas. Only one medium to topping pizza will be upgraded to a large. Hey Applebee's, congrats on becoming the official grilling bar sponsor of the NFL. How does it feel? I'm glad we'll be able to bring some extra heat. Any plans to celebrate? Yeah, we're gonna serve up America's favorite boneless wings for just 50 cents each to get off the season. Limited time price participation in selection may vary tax and gratuity excluded. [BLANK_AUDIO]