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Market insight and analysis. You're listening to the opening bell of CNBC's Squawk on the Street. Good Tuesday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Kingston here with David Faber at Post 9 of the New York Stock Exchange. Kramer, is it one market in San Francisco Dream Force kicks off today? S&P looks to take aim at some record highs of the open, following the dials all-time high yesterday. Retail sales, solid, fed meeting begins. Plenty of MAG 7 news from Microsoft to Meta to Amazon. Our roadmap begins with the Fed decision, though, just a day away, as the street debates how deep of a cut to expect. On the tech front shows, Vintel are up sharply, at least in the pre-market, lots of developments surrounding the company, including its agreement to produce AI chips for Amazon Web Services. Plus, Microsoft announces a dividend hike, operizes a new stock pre-purchase. It's up to $60 billion in dental buybacks. Let's start, though, with the markets. S&P is riding a six-day wind streak ahead of the Fed's decision tomorrow. Jim, in futures here, look a little spicy. Right now, we know that the industrials have had a little bit of run. The banks have been okay. Healthcare is all right. These were all today and Friday, but this look, and yesterday, but this looks like today we're already setting up. Maybe it's perhaps because of the Microsoft buyback. A very good tone, as we remember that these companies have a lot of power and have a lot of money. David, when you see a usual dividend boost, but a gigantic buyback, don't you think, "Well, wait a second, they can buy back $60 billion." Isn't that bigger than most companies? That kind of thing does create a level of confidence. Yeah, the buyback $60 billion, not to mention what their cap-expend is and only going higher, where are we, in the $50 billion plus, at least? No, listen, I mean, the numbers are extraordinary. I pointed out I'm like a broken record around earnings every time because I'm just so wowed by just the numbers themselves, Jim, but we make the point and I think it is worth making. These companies, the enormity of their balance sheets, the enormity of their capital structures of their broad power, so to speak, despite the fact that they may not be violating any anti-monopoly laws, is extraordinary. And really unlike anything I think we've ever seen at least in our lifetime. Yes, take a look at Alphabet, okay? Now, I'm seeing Waymo cars all over San Francisco. We know that they've got deals to do other cities. And yet, what are we hearing? That they've been a monopolist when it comes to advertising. You know, Carl, some companies are so powerful and their tentacles are everywhere that an Alphabet stock trades below market mobile because people worry about the government. I think these companies are in the crosshairs of the government because what can you do? They're just bigger than countries. And you can't take them on if you're in their belly work. Speaking of autonomous driving, Jim, I know you saw this Bernstein note today, where they argue if it hadn't been for Jedi, we might be talking about this year as the year autonomous driving turned a corner. When you got Waymo rides going to Exa in a short period of time, Cruz is testing again. We talked about the Uber expansion to Atlanta the other day. Look, when I think about what's going on in San Francisco and then these other cities, I begin to see the possibility. I'm going to see this today when I'm at Dreamforce, which is Salesforce's wonderful external guys of Frei. Really, the cars and buses that don't have steering wheels. And that's the future. They just look like little mini buses. And then, David, you don't have this oddity of someone not behind the wheel. So you feel like, well, wait a second, where's the driver? That's over. And I'm seeing these as being the next step when it comes to drivers. Yeah. You know, it's an interesting and a long piece from your good friend. I think it's Tony Sakanagi, isn't it Carl? So I know you're going to read that with great interest. Of course, Tesla, we pointed out many times has been a big beneficiary as well in terms of how it's training itself driving in terms of generative AI. And the advance is potentially being made there as well. And we talked, obviously, to Derek Huzrshahi last week about Austin being one of their key markets as they partner with Waymo. And we'll keep an eye on both of those shares. You know, Jim, back to sort of the broader market. And again, as we pointed out yesterday a number of times, the very strong market last week preceded the week prior by the very weak market. Any takeaways from the trading yesterday in terms of how this week's going to go with this Fed decision, of course, sitting right in the middle of it? Well, it's pretty amazing. We've got two markets. We've got the 50 basis points markets. And that moves all housing, housing related in banks. And then we have 25. And 25 brings back the nation state tech titans. It's almost as if people think, well, if you do 50, you save the market and save a lot of the industrials and the sickles. If you only do 25, you've hurt them. Where then we start going back to these companies that have so big balance sheets that are doing so well that won't be hurt by a recession. And that's tech. Very binary, very stupid. Meantime, Jim, I know Canada today printed 2% inflation. 2.0 year on year estimate was 2.1. They got the target. Yeah, but then I come back and I listen to Phil and Bowen. He's talking about the biggest expense for a lot of people. It is the auto expense and it's more than $700 a month. And it lags. I'm trying to find, I'm on the war path to try to find where people save more money, maybe home equity loan. It is not a case on this particular cut that the consumer is stimulated. And that, David, is where the weakness is in the economy. It is at this point, if you want to call it weakness, I mean, as we pointed out, savings is still, I think, 30% above where it was at the end of 2019 prior to the pandemic. So there would still seem to be a decent amount of cushion. But you're right, the things that we look at, at least that the Fed looks at, do indicate a consumer that is starting to weaken. But you know, it's funny, Jim, as much as we get 50-25 at a conversation yesterday with somebody who's very senior in the world of finance, who said, "Well, I don't know why we're cutting it all." I mean, there is still a camp that says the economy is stronger than we're getting a credit for, and we're going to, you know, we're going to expend the bullets that would otherwise best be kept in case things did get really bad. It's funny, I talked to a number of CEOs, not just the ones we're on. Yes, I had a number last night. And nobody could figure out, again, you're sorry, I did. Number of the fear, like, why we need this? I mean, they're still trying to find employees, they're trying to find engineers, there's a big shortage. Call two economies, there's the economy that is frantic to try to find people who know AI. And then there's the other economy, which needs far more than AI to be able to put up the numbers. So we have these two different economies, and when you're out here, look, we're back in the bidding wars for talent out here. Yeah, so what have you picked up, Jim? I mean, you had some great interviews last night. I know we'll place them at Serbs, whether it's Moktan or Renee Haas, but what's the chatter given our endless conversation about AI? And, you know, I would assume it's the same out there. It's about who needs Jensen and who doesn't. I mean, if you need Jensen, you're in trouble and you're worried about allocation. And if you don't need Jensen, well, you know what? Then you have a pretty good run of the place. Hocktan does not need Jensen. He does not need Jensen Wong. He does not need to make it so that he gets Blackwell. But David, you know, we keep thinking about that little piece that you ran yesterday. Well, you had Larry Ellison talk about how he needs to get right with Jensen. That is the real subject of discussion. Oracle's resurgence from a 2% grower to something far bigger. Why? They've got it right with Jensen. Yeah. Ellison now number two on the world's richest list. Deethrones, Bezos, catching up to Elon Musk. Certainly Oracle up 20% in a month will help that. Let's turn it into, guys, stocks getting a boost on this news. It's creating a separate entity for its foundry business that could allow it to raise outside funding. The company also expanding a partnership with Amazon, which now includes developing AI chips for AWS. This is Pat Gelsinger on closing bell over time yesterday. This is a big announcement today. Amazon's been a partner of Intel for many years, but we've just taken it to a whole new level. Obviously, the 18A foundry agreement for their AI networking is a big deal. And Amazon is a discerning customer. They are really sent us through our paces to prove that 18A is up to snuff. And it's up to snuff. Jim, can't say the sell side is all that enthused today. JPM and BFA maintain an underweight. Well, a couple of things are going on. One is that that chip was probably going to be produced for Amazon anyway. So why should they have to announce an agreement? The question is how exclusive is it? Will they be able to sell it to others? Two, one of the things that I was most concerned about, I was most concerned about, I talked about it until yesterday was the cash outflow. So what have they done? They've paused Germany, they've paused Poland. That's going to save them some money. But all that said, what I do think is important is that they have their own foundry system and they broke out foundry as if there could be a sum of the parts situation if needed, David, the sum of the parts is being put between 40 and 42. So that is tantalizing to people. But no one else knows why that they split the foundry business off, other than trying to make it for sale some day. Yeah, listen, you've been, and rightly so, of course, skeptical for a very long time. I gave you a hard time yesterday about any number of names, but on this one, Jim, you've been right all the way down. You've been concerned, though, lately in terms of cash, and I would go to Stacey Raskin, who's sort of the axe in this industry, and we have him on often. He says on the positive, the move suggests Intel's not as desperate for cash as some have feared. They don't seem to be preparing to dump mobile eye or all tear at the bottom, at least. And our own view has been that given both the op-ex cuts, the cap-ex cuts, the dividend suspension, subsidies, and partner contributions, they should be okay for now. I like that. Okay, for now. Remember, they got some money from the government, so they get these grants. So, therefore, you can say, listen, they're bouncy, it's going to get an infusion. But if you were in Germany or if you were in Poland, there was great fanfare for the German plant that is now paused. And to me, you've got paused, and then you have a lot of people in Germany talking about mothball that they won't be made. So, I mean, look, I think Carl, when I look at the company, it reminds me of when AMD and global foundry split off, I'm wondering whether we're just seeing a continual reshuffling of what they have, the assets they have, in order to be able to make it so the balance sheet is fine. But the balance sheet being fine needs to see lot less cash out, and that's what happened in Germany, even though they promised Europe these plants. Yeah, we're beginning to see some pieces here this morning, Jim, the case to buy the dip, but I don't think you're quite there yet. Meanwhile speaking of AWS and Amazon, we did get that memo from Andy Jassy yesterday telling employees to return five days a week, kind of takes me back. Jim, I think it was 21 when he came on and talked about sort of the stitching, the glue among employees that you lose when you try to innovate remote. One of the things that was, this was incredibly talked about at Dreamforce, and the reason why he's incredibly talked about is Andy Jassy is uniformly known as a real good guy. Kept a lot of people on after the pandemic until they could figure out who should be laid off, but this decision, as some people are saying, is a shakeout. He wants to find out who is truly committed and who isn't, even though there are people already grandfathered. You know what David, a lot of people out here are convinced that remote's better than going to work. And I think that that's a cop out, because if you want to try to rationalize and make your work, workforce have mentors and people who can figure out what to do and then teach younger people. David, it's very hard by soon. Yeah, listen, Andy viewers have been paying attention to our dialogue here for the last four years, know how I feel, and I believe how you feel and even Carl as well. I don't understand it. I've never understood it. I don't know how you get an organization to move in the same direction. I don't know how you get a sense of urgency amongst your employee base without being together on a very regular basis. And I guess Andy Jassy agrees. And to Carl's point, it is a way, Jim, of weeding people out without actually announcing layoffs, so to speak, but saying, all right, maybe this is just not right for you if you can't actually make it into the office. Yeah, one of the things that may be left about this is Amazon is uniquely a company where you have to be face to face. I mean, what they do for a living is to try to get a package to you. And I think, therefore, if you have all these people at home, and Carl, I never call for people to be just fired. If you have all these people at home, perhaps there are some superfluous people. And, by the way, if there's anybody going to figure out AI and who needs to be human and who can be an agent, it's going to be Amazon. I have to wonder if that is next. Trying to figure out who we -- by the way, everyone's trying to figure out if they're expendable out here. Like, maybe I'm expendable. And it's like, hey, I -- some of them even Carl were like, hey, you know what? You are not expendable, because you have a face. So there are a lot of people requesting. There's a lot of existential questions. But you do, Jim, you do have a lot of young companies, companies that are just starting that don't really have a physical presence to a certain extent, in part because it does save money early on to have your employees distributed wherever you want them working from home. I mean, it's a weird way to do it, especially for younger people. I know any number of younger people who are working for companies, they're remote. It's actually the company culture to be remote. I don't know how that figures into how venture capitalists think about those particular companies in their future. Well, there's a big penny worth for talent. I know people are looking at these unemployment numbers, and they're thinking, well, you know what? Well, it's me. We've got a lot of entrepreneurs spending. There are people who can't make their car payments. But then, Carl, you've got a lot of people who are still being in a bidding war. So how late is it that you can say, listen, I want to stay at home, but you've got to hire me. And the companies tend to ascend to that because there's just not enough qualified people out here. Yeah, Bernstein today calls this Amazon move the year of efficiency. They say, that's my term, not Jassy's. But it's appropriate given that a bunch of Amazon middle managers are going to be laid off in the coming months. And then they say, buy Amazon. Oh, look, there agency is the key word out here. Agency means you allow the AI agent to be able to make decisions themselves. Now, David, I know that you think that maybe AI decision maker might say that, you know what? We are going to set the world on fire or something. But the machines tend to do what's the right thing to do. Yeah, until they don't. I mean, Jim, I assume you're having those conversations still offline, perhaps, about the concerns that the people behind this technology continue to have. Because when you do sit down with them in quiet places and get them to actually talk, perhaps after a couple of drinks, they will all admit that they're still very much afraid. They will. No, you're right. I mean, I'm being facetious when I make faces to you, but that's what I do when I'm with you. So why not do it 3,000 miles away? David, a lot of people are saying, are good guys going to get it or bad guys going to get it? You know, Carl, there are views that bad guys are going to get it and they're trying to figure out how to keep it from the bad guys. That's another big discussion out here. Yeah. Indeed, Jim. You know, we got retail sales this morning. Next up is industrial production. And for that, I think we're going to head to Rick Santelli here. Hi, Carl, indeed, another surprise of strength. Industrial production expected up to 10s. Multiply that by 4, up 8/10 of a percent. We've gone from last month being the second weakest number of the year, revised to minus 9/10, so down almost 1%, to the second best number of the year. The utilization also better than expected at 78%, sequentially higher than the 77.4 in the rear view mirror. And that 77.4 was a downward revision, just like industrial production. So last month, a bit weaker. This month, significantly stronger, especially on IP. And that's an August number. We did see retail sales also better than expected. And Empire, we saw yesterday was as well a strong number, and that's September. So there definitely seems to be a better pulse on some of the manufacturing areas of the economy. And if we look at interest rates, everything on the yield curve, other than the 30-year bond now is a higher yield lower price than yesterday's close. Squawk on the street will return after a short break. 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New customers on first-three-month plan only, taxes and fees extra, speeds lower above 40 gigabyte CD-Tales. Time for a mad dash cross-country version. We've got an opening bell six minutes from now. New Corp reported earnings. Jim, what do we think? Well, they give you that pre-lim that always tells you what's going to happen when they actually get to the end of the quarter, and David's not good. The reason why I say it's not good is while I'm looking for weakness, I don't find any out here. But we learned that New Corp probably going to earn a $1.30 to $1.40 this quarter. We had been looking for $1.89. The reason for the decline, the shortfall, lower volumes and lower average selling price. David, this is where there is weakness in steel. And we know, by the way, if you look at the chart of Cleveland Cliffs, it's been dreadful. So if you want weakness and you want to find it, steel will tell you where it is. So what's the takeaway here, then? Again, given this guidance range, it's deeply below estimates as you just pointed out. Well, there's two, look, you could go with what Cleveland Cliffs are saying, which is that it's an invasion of Chinese steel through Mexico and it's not being policed by our government. Where you could say that maybe autos and construction are weaker than we thought, those are two steel markets, although by the way, it's really, you could say it's Cleveland Cliffs that dominates the autos. But when you see this kind of wholesale decline in average selling price, what that means is just there's just not a lot of demand, not necessarily that there's a plethora of supply. Interesting. All right, we'll keep an eye on shares of US Steel as well. Some of the others that you mentioned, Cleveland Cliffs. Jim, we'll see in a minute. We got the opening bell just a few minutes away. Don't go anywhere. This is a big dog, this is a market segment, XPUs for accelerators and the networking. These are the guys who are investing in today, 100,000 GPU or XPU clusters. In four years time, they're headed towards a million XPU clusters. That's Broadcom's Hot Tam with Jim last night on Mad Money. Jim, he really gave you a nice roadmap for the incentive these hyperscalers have to invest. Well, look, I thought it was great. I mean, hot QC is not as effusive. And one of the things that's most important if you do the million, then what you're saying is that Larry Ellison's probably going to be right that you are going to need 1,000 data centers, not 162. David, we're all trying to figure out whether Ellis is an outlier. And then you speak to Hot Tam, who's you know is not really given to hyperbole as a tough guy. And he's basically saying, look out. We haven't even gotten near the peak spending. I thought that was very significant, David, because you know Hot Tam, he doesn't exaggerate. I think the number, by the way, that he reported and did not take into effect all the buildings he's getting right now from the hyperscalers. Jim, let's get the opening bell here. And the CDC's real time exchange of the big board. It is American Eagle Outfitters celebrating its 30th listing anniversary. At the NASDAQ Data Dog, a monitoring and security platform for cloud applications. And as we're out on the gym, maybe 10, 15 points shy of a record S&P. Well, can we have technology on board? Technology is such a news part of the S&P. Then it's going to happen. But you do need tech. One thing that I am focused on is maybe it's going to 30% because of AI. New users here when you're out here, if you don't hear AI immediately, then you tend to think that, you know, basically you're with the wrong person. If you're trying to make chit chat and Jensen Wong doesn't come up, David, then I really think that maybe you're an imposter and shouldn't be in the room. Right, it's the old, yeah, the old line, right? Verb, noun, AI, that's what you got to go with. True. Yeah. Look, everyone's trying to figure out a use case though. One thing is intimidating, Carl, is that the only use cases that you find are ones you don't understand because they're so complex and difficult. I'm not finding anything easy. We discussed last night at a time 100 dinner during cancer and AI and how active that's not what happens. But you can speed up an accumulation of data and figure out which gene might be causing cancer. That has been one use that I found that people are talking about. The other ones are just trying to figure out how to make it so your call center is smaller, not the holy grail of AI computing. Well, you know, Jim, we mentioned the Microsoft div hike and buyback, but kind of didn't discuss this co-pilot launch of these agents. And Nadella's discussion of what it can do for your email, what it can do for your Excel spreadsheets. And some of these license buyers include Honeywell and Vodafone. This is huge because there is a battle going on. It's sub-rozen, but it's happening, which is Microsoft against Salesforce. The Salesforce has a product that they're unveiling today that we've gotten wind up, of course, about their agency plan, about smart bots, about the big changes that they see happening. But it took competing against Microsoft. Not a lot of love loss right now, David, you know that this has been brewing Microsoft versus Salesforce. Microsoft has opened, it's what it's going to do for 365, and the salvo back from Salesforce's AI co-pilot not doing the job that you think it is. Yeah, I mean, I would assume we're going to start to see as, again, we get deeper into the applications, particularly from the enterprise, Jim, more of these types of potential battles. Oh, I think it's true. And it does speak to Microsoft's growing ubiquity in some ways, doesn't it? That they are going to be, they're challenging the likes of a Salesforce or any number of other companies in terms of offering these tools to corporations. Well, look, it's the same thing with cybersecurity. They are the big dog in cybersecurity, nobody else is. Obviously, look, we talk about Crown Strike, we talk about Palo Alto. But the people who are trying to make big decisions, have almost accepted the fact that Microsoft is going to be their security blanket. And I don't think anyone's happy with that, because they wanted to have more choice, but that's what they're with, Microsoft 365, Cybersecurity. Microsoft wants 100% of your business, it's not talked about. And by the way, David, it's amazing. The Justice Department doesn't seem to look at them at all. Look at them at all. No, you're right. They're the one name that sort of escapes some significant scrutiny, I guess. I mean, we have to go through the list in terms of, obviously, alphabet has got, well, one case, they're in a different part of it than they've got the advertising. Meta still in the crosshairs? Amazon, yes, you're right. Microsoft is the one. Well, Apple as well is scrutinized a lot more in the EU, Jim, than seems to be the case here in terms of some of their practices. Right, look, I think Microsoft is able to bundle. Now, bundle is often a term that the Justice Department is interested in, but let's say you take 365 and they say, "Hey, listen, why don't you take this, this, this, that's not monopolistic behavior?" that says, "Hey, we're all for your better deal than others." So, the question is, is their product better than others? Does 365 hallucinate? Does it send you to the wrong place? There are a lot of people who are saying things that are somewhat that are just outright critical, but, Carl, this is because there is a war going on. It's between the companies that are alive with Salesforce and the companies that are alive with Microsoft. Yeah, kind of like a Boeing airbus kind of. I don't want to say duopoly in this case, but certainly people picking their teams. Jim Meta is a lot closer to an all-time high today than Microsoft, and we did get news from Meta today that they're going to institute. So, pretty sweeping changes on Instagram regarding teen use, and then, of course, banning some Russian state media, RT, and others from platforms as well. Well, here's an insanity that I've discovered in talking to you. I'm talking to a huge number of executives. Mark Zuckerberg is now considered to be the paragon. What Mark Zuckerberg says, where he is, he's forward, he's ahead of the issues. David, is it possible that Mark Zuckerberg has some sort of sole Damascus conversion, because, wow, is he considered to be the leader when it comes to the safeguards, and what has to happen with AI? Yeah, I'll leave that to you. I guess what he wears, a nice little chain now, and he grooves hair out, and so it's all come by, yeah, it's all changed. It's just one big $50 billion phone here, right? You nailed him, David. You got it. You got right to the heart of things. Otherwise, the fact that he's become the leader, but you're right. Carl, David's right. He's more focused on the necklace. Well, I think a lot of people are. Yeah, of course. Now, as we're watching, David, do you think, David, your promise is open source, and they're certainly, they've gotten, I mean, both they get criticized in some ways for it, and as well, they also are- Who's criticizing it? People are using it. Who are criticizing it? Because, to your point earlier, when you make it available to everybody, it is also available to those who might do things that are not necessarily in the best interests of society. That's why. You've got the bad guys, the bad guys. Correct. The bad guys. Yes. There are plenty of them, as you well know. You and I agree. There aren't bad guys. You know, Carl, you can't stop them. Yeah, everyone- By the way, it's so funny, everyone says, "Hey, you know what? It's always in the head. It's in the good guys. The good guys have it. The bad guys can't get it. Why can't the bad guys get it? It's for free." They do get it. They have it, and, conceivably, they will do bad things with it, which is something we always need to be concerned about. It'll just be an escalating war, but you're not going to prevent it, Jim. No. Changing subjects a bit. I did notice Apple shares have continued their decline. Of course, yesterday the stock was down on the number of analysts weighing in in terms of pre-orders, perhaps being a bit below what had been anticipated or what we've seen in previous launches. Jim, I don't know what your thoughts are. My thoughts are- My thoughts are- My thoughts are- My thoughts are- Underperform now, underperform for the year down- excuse me, up a little less than 12%, but well below the 18.5% return of the S&P. Well, David, you said something yesterday, and I think it's going in on people. You don't pay 32 times earnings for a company that doesn't have the product, the demand that we thought. I'm going to talk to Mike Seaver from T-Mobile later this week, and we'll find out more about what the carriers are doing. But David, yeah, I mean, it's like, wow, 32 times earnings. The first orders, the pre-orders should have blown away all expectations, and they haven't. I continue to believe that doesn't matter. But, you know, 32 times earnings is very rare for out. It is, although yesterday when I mentioned that you came back to the recurring revenues, and what is oftentimes the mantra that it deserves a higher multiple, of course, and their service revenue is a larger and larger percentage of their overall number. Well, I'm standing by that, but you're not going to get that number. You're going to get the pre-orders. The pre-orders are going to control the narrative. I don't think they should. I think that there'll be ample demand, especially as we get to the holiday season, and then maybe the multiple is justified. I'm just literally saying that people are concerned. They're not thinking about the service revenue. They're thinking, wow, are we going to have a shortfall in this quarter? I can't tell you where they are or not. But I remain steadfast that you should own Apple, despite what is viewed as a short-term hiccup on the pre-orders. I'd love you to start asking some questions to the people you're seeing out there about the long-term viability of the Apple handset. We talked about the fact that they, in some ways, are a free rider of a spend of others because they have such a huge embedded base, and they're going to bring AI to them via this phone and software upgrades that are going to take place. But there are some who believe, Jim, that ultimately, because of what AI is going to be able to do, you're not going to need apps at all. You're just going to need a device that you just tell what you want and it doesn't. How does Apple figure into that world if it in fact happens? I think that's a great question. I think that there are a lot of people who just say the real truth of AI is being able to talk to a machine and the machine has figured it out. The machine is smarter than we thought. I'm not just talking about the bad guys, but if you can speak to something, you can cut out a middleman. And I guess you could argue that the app store is the middleman in this case. Right. I think that's at least the question. Existential question. Oh, very much so to speak. Very much question. One of the things that's disappointing, Carl, is that when you get off the desk and people, the first thing they say is you know what AI is going to do? It's going to crush the call center. The call center. And then I'll say next. And I'll say no, don't. It's the call center. Well, I mean, like the call center is, if that's all it's going to do, that's hardly the Jetsons. I don't know if you guys heard Ellison. We played some of the sound yesterday, but he went on in that meeting with analysts to describe how AI is going to change, say law enforcement and police departments and drones and surveillance cameras. And the ability to commit a crime is going to get narrowed down to a very short window because AI will be so quick to detect their movement. That was the "Move as the Tom Cruise" movie. Oh, thank you. One already report. Is that where we're going? Carl. Yeah. Literally. The free, what were they called? Pre-cursor. Yeah. Pre-crime. Yeah. Yeah. God. That was a good movie, actually. It's another great movie from Tom Cruise. Don't worry about it. Don't worry about it. Oh, he ran in that movie. 2002. Thank you. It's that kind of one. It's that kind of one. Always gets a little recommended. What? Boring Constitution still in the way. Jim, you meant to worry about that, Jim. Don't worry. We'll take care of that. Don't worry. Oh, okay. It's awesome. Bill writes this. It made me preserve like six out of ten, maybe. You know, give us a couple. Mmm. Jim, you mentioned holiday spend. A couple things on spending. I think that this Challenger Grand Christmas report says, "Hop. Seasonal hiring will be lower than last holiday season because of maybe slower consumer spending." The other, Jim, is this Morgan Stanley Hubertin chart on -- actually, it's not Hubertin, but it is Morgan Stanley on Walmart Plus membership, which is the biggest sequential increase in their surveys history, all-time high in August, 30 percent higher than the prior six-month average. Well, why the hell not? I mean, on August 22nd, Walmart announced an exclusive partnership with none other than Burger King, through which members can enjoy 25 percent off of a Burger King digital orders every day, and a free wop or a free wop, or I know where you'll be going every three months. When I check them with a company, this is starting today. And these are the kind of things that they would seem went off of. When you put them all together, you want to be a Walmart Plus member, because if they're going to get away, Whoppers, count me in. I haven't had a Whopper. Maybe, ever. I don't know. Have you ever had a year away? Have you ever had a year away? I must have had it my way at some point. No, I don't think you've ever had it. No. Did they have a chicken sandwich they did? They have a chicken -- I ate that for a number of years. Yeah. It's good. It was pretty good. I haven't really eaten the fast food very much. I'm not like you with the bacon. My wife is coming out here. Here we go. My wife is coming out here today. I think we've racked up enough points. Whopper, here we come. Okay. All right. Do you want to try something, David? You ought to just try something. Like maybe go to a wing stop and get wings. I mean, maybe -- You want the wing stop. You never stop at the wing stop. It's the best performing stop there is in the restaurant group. And then it's Kava. Okay? And then it's sweet greens. Okay? You've got a sweet bean. You can get all the sweet bean you want. Actually, if you own wing stop Kava and sweet green, you're very happy. Look at that. My God. Look at Kava. And I sat here and doubted you when you talked about the IPO, because I thought you knew nothing. You know what else you doubted me on? Do you remember when I named my darn dog Nvidia? And you said enough already, but it's enough. And then it was in three bucks. There was in three bucks. Now you're making things up. Now I hate when you do that. Because we talked about things that actually happened. I did sit here on the IPO Kava and you were very positive and I was like, but I've never, ever, ever questioned you on Nvidia, not once. And you know that. Absolutely. It was a strong man, but I felt like saying it because I'm out here. Jim, you mentioned some of the restaurants. I'm sure you saw the Starbucks North America chief, Michael Conway, going to be leaving after five months on the job. I think that one of the things that Brian Nickel did when he got to Chipotle was bring in his own team. And also get rid of lots of positions that you didn't necessarily need. Now I'm not saying this man's position wasn't needed. I am saying that organizational structure of Starbucks was Byzantine. And maybe we get some clarity. And maybe we get some Brian Nickel people in. And you need them because I'm hearing from a lot of people who of course are Starbucks people. There was a machine that I saw at Salesforce. A machine that can make like 25 drinks at once. This is what Nickel needs. And the machine seemed, I mean, it wasn't like I was asking for a shake-and-not-sturbent martini. This machine can make a lot of lotis. Hmm. All right. Is the machine just a prototype at this point, Jim? I think it's -- no. It's ready. It's ready to go. And I think that Brian Nickel should buy everyone they have, kind of like what you need to do with Jensen and Blackwell. He should buy everyone they have. And then maybe every drink will be the same. Well, no, you know, maybe you'll still get to be able to say three pumps, two triple-vente skim-wet hot. I heard one. I get this. I heard one. It was like I want a triple-vente cappuccino with skim-wet. And I wanted hot. Well, no kidding. I guess that's because of cold? Yeah. Hot always. I thought that's what they are. Yeah. I was thinking I want mine hotter than hot. I don't know. Everybody seems to have what I regard as some perception that Starbucks is really important and Brian's got to change it. It's part of the firm in there. Although we found a Starbucks that closed early because they didn't have the demand. Do we know it? Guys, there's a Fed meeting. I know you both may not be aware of that. Kind of news, right? Big news. Keeping an eye on the banks. Yeah. A bit of a rally today. I'm looking at most of the big banks up one percent. Your favorite Wells Fargo up 1.3%. Yes! Yeah. There you go. Ahead of, of course, a meeting. What do you think? Yeah. Wells Fargo should never have been down that low. Although it's not clear that there are beneficiaries from lower rates, particularly who get 50 basis points. I mean, some parts of their business benefit. But, you know, obviously not an interest income may not, Jim. No, you're right, David. You know who benefits. Just like every single time. Private credit. Good old private credit. Private credit. Those people are now the Kings. They are the new Kings. Private credit. They are a force. And if you listen to people like Mark Rowan, for example, who runs Apollo, they will tell you we're in the earliest stages of a seminal change in terms of the way private versus public is viewed. And frankly, the way fixed income is viewed. For example, what is private credit? He always asks, is it an alternative asset? Or is it fixed income? Well, it's just fixed income is what they would say. And therefore, it should be replacing a lot of the public debt that is out there over time. Well, how about Canner yesterday at the semaphore event, Jim, saying that DOJ is going to review how their guidelines for bank mergers, which haven't been written or rewritten in a couple of decades, and even still sort of emphasize branch overlap and deposits as opposed to the influence of buying out pay later in private credit? Well, look, I think that banks seem to be under assault everywhere. I mean, look at a firm. I mean, a firm is just taking a lot of credit card business. I think that you look at PayPal, you've got a lot of buying out pay later. You have these, everyone's nipping at them. What they really need to do is be able to merge. Call if they merge, then they can cut a lot of costs. A lot of banks, and just we here, are going to bank on AI to be able to eliminate people, but they never say eliminate people. What they say is become more productive. That means eliminate people, by the way. All right. Guys, S&P, about 10 points shy of all-time highs. Dows up 100 as we go to break, watch bonds. If you as a reminder, a couple of nice prints today. Retail sales came in ahead. Industrial production, also a beach, second best of the year. 10-year did get down to 3, 5, 9, 9 before all of that, and then ticks up to almost about 3, 6, 4. Stay with us. Crude oil continues to hold above 70, taking a bit higher today. This time it's these concerns about Hurricane Francine and the impact on production in the Gulf. About 12% of crude production remains offline in the Gulf of Mexico, and about 16% of natural gas output. Dows up almost 90 points next hour. Don't miss an exclusive with Chevron's chief, Mike Worth. That's stuck now negative on the year. Stay with us. It's time for Jim to stop trading. All right, so Bank of America comes out and say, "Look, if you want a ray-cut winner, go with Carbona." Now, Carbona's a heavily shorted stock. This is the company that is going to dominate, I believe, all use Car. I think the piece makes a ton of sense, and Carbona still needs to be bought, saved by Apollo private credit not that long ago. Yeah, that was an amazing deal. Apollo pulled off there ultimately. Hey, Jim, we get a lot of texts from CEOs. Of course, all of them watch the show on a regular basis. One of them is the CEO of Cisco. I don't know if you're familiar with them, a guy named Chuck Robbins, big Atlanta fan. Chuck did ask me, he said, "You haven't seemed to have mentioned the NFL today. There's no need to," I told him. Actually, I'm kind of done with the NFL, or something to talk about. Why do you hurt me, Davis? It's not me. Why did you do that? It's the control room that ran that I had nothing to do with this. Nothing. Well, that's a falcon game, and it was pre-season, I hope. There is an outright -- in a city that used to be the third largest city in America, there's a stunning belief that our coach must go, our head coach, after the absolutely high school light play at the end. Well, what about the very beginning when he didn't go? He doesn't believe in analytics. He's going by the way that we used to do things. I don't know when I was playing ball. But you know what? Big heart, David. Big heart. Okay? He's got a big heart. I actually want a W, and we got an L. So don't get me started. And by the way, don't ever bring up NFL again. Okay? You're done. I think that the Phillies, their magic numbers, like six, is fantastic. David Dunn with Saints are up next. International football. I've got Siemens. I've got Siemens. I have Salesforce. I have trained technologies and maybe a new head coach, but I don't happen yet. This is pretty early this season. Chuck Robbins should be the head coach for heaven's sake. Jim, we'll see you tonight. 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Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber explored the market landscape ahead of Wednesday's key Fed decision, as Wall Street debates the depth of a rate cut. The Dow hits a new all-time high as the S&P 500 aims for its own record milestone. Chips in the spotlight: Intel jumps on its foundry business strategy and agreement to produce AI chips for Amazon's AWS. The anchors reacted to what the CEOs of Broadcom and Arm Holdings told Jim Monday night on "Mad Money." Also in focus: Retail sales' positive surprise, Microsoft's dividend hike and new share buyback of up to $60 billion, Amazon's new return-to-office mandate, Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison surpassed Jeff Bezos as the world's second richest man, Cramer highlights a stock he says is a "rate cut winner"
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