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Squawk on the Street

Dow Hits Record High Despite Apple Pullback, Bracing for the Fed, Oracle's Ellison "Begged" Nvidia 9/16/24

Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber focused on a big week ahead for the markets, as Wall Street debates how deep the Fed could cut rates on Wednesday. Apple shares under pressure after a well-followed analyst said overall pre-orders for the iPhone 16 lineup indicate weaker than expected demand. That news did not prevent the Dow from hitting an new all-time high. The anchors also explored the AI trade after last week's surge -- and reacted to Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison's comment about "begging" Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for AI chips. Also in focus: Jim's "dream" week in San Francisco, DirecTV-Disney agreement ends a blackout, Boeing strike Day 4, a second apparent assassination attempt on former President Trump. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer
Broadcast on:
16 Sep 2024
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Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber focused on a big week ahead for the markets, as Wall Street debates how deep the Fed could cut rates on Wednesday. Apple shares under pressure 

after a well-followed analyst said overall pre-orders for the iPhone 16 lineup indicate weaker than expected demand. That news did notprevent the Dow from hitting an new all-time high. 

The anchors also explored the AI trade after last week's surge -- and reacted to Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison's comment about "begging" Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for AI chips. 

Also in focus: Jim's "dream" week in San Francisco, DirecTV-Disney agreement ends a blackout, Boeing strike Day 4, a second apparent assassination attempt on former President Trump.

 

Squawk on the Street Disclaimer

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Give it a try at Mint Mobile.com/switch. $45 up from payment equivalent to $15 per month, new customers on first-three-month plan only, taxes and fees extra, speeds lower above 40 gigabytes of details. It's Jim Kramer here. You're listening to the opening bell of CNBC's Squawk on the Street. Don't miss a minute of the action. Good Monday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Kingston here with David Faber here at Post Night of the New York Stock Exchange. Kramer is a one-market in San Francisco ahead of Dreamforce, which gets underway tomorrow. Pre-market is mixed as we come off the S&P's best week of the year. A lot to tackle with retail sales tomorrow with a Fed on Wednesday. Ten-year, 365 and Empire manufacturing was a beat. Our roadmap begins with the Fed on deck with the case for $50, gaining some steam today. Musk will keep the eye on shares and happen with his mugs, though, because laggards on the S&P, at least in the pre-market. This follows reports of weak iPhone pre-order demand, that is for the iPhone 16. And why Larry Ellison and Elon Musk are begging Nvidia's Jensen Wong to please take our money? We'll give you the details. Let's begin with Jim this morning and his very big week in San Francisco. You're going to work hard this week, Jim. Oh, I got to tell you, we've got everything from Hocktan today, Broadcom. We have Renee Haus from Arm. These right are in the center of what's happening right now. If you look at the crawl underneath us, those stocks are all down. But, you know, Enterprise Software is the real focus, isn't that sales force? And I think, and David, you know this, Enterprise Software has been the big bust of 2024. Let's find out why, because it's supposed to be so integral to AI. Yeah, all of it. Integral to AI. I mean, I think, I don't know, should we take bets on how often that's going to come up in every single conversation you have, or at least, will you say anything but AI, AI, AI, AI of verb and noun AI? What's the matter with saying generative AI? Why do I have to limit it to AI? It's true. It's true. I didn't even think of that. More of a descriptor in front of it, which, of course, is what we're talking about. And we'll be talking about and continue to talk about. And it's going to fuel everything there. You know, what about Salesforce itself, Jim? I mean, when it comes to, obviously, the big event that they put on, and the questions about, and we dealt with this when the company reported earnings, and then remember that Klarna call that I recounted, and then you had Mark Benioff, of course, a guest on your show that evening talking about, are companies really pulling it out or not? Look, I think you're right. Right now, there's a lot of questions about whether Salesforce is as relevant as it used to be. I think that it's new product, it's agent product. It does matter, and it's going to be on display here. But I also think that what we're seeing, David, is that other than ServiceNow, which has a huge number of contracts, we've not been able to translate AI into earnings for anyone other than the aforementioned NVIDIA. Now, I began to see that with Oracle, and Oracle would make me think that some of these applications are going to work. I mean, Carl, what's happened is that hardware is winning, and software is losing. You know, it's been a dozen years since that's been the case. Let's find out. I have to go boots on the ground here because I don't like it. I don't like the tone of what people are saying about Salesforce. I think Salesforce is doing better than people realize. Yeah, we're going to talk about this upgrade of Oracle out of Emilius, which I know you like. We'll get to that in a second. Talk some macro and markets, though, to start things off. Racing for this big Fed decision this week. Jim Greggip in the Journal over the weekend, calling for 50. And then Dudley, again, this morning saying not just that 50 is what we should get. He thinks it's actually what we're going to get. Well, look, I struggle to find out where the actual overall weaknesses in the economy, given the fact we just had great earnings. I know we have retail sales tomorrow. That could matter. Look, obviously, job growth is not necessarily what we want. I think that 50 is an overreaction to where we are. Although, obviously, we were restricted. I know we're so high, it's restricted, but it's restricted, we're restricted. But, David, when we get at 25, we feel pretty good. There'll be more 25s. We get 50. Aren't you and I going to be saying what's lurking? Is it private equity? David, is it private credit? Is that what's doing it? Yeah, no, I think you're right, Jim. There's certainly going to be questions if we were to get 50, or at least deeper questions about are we misjudging just how bad things already are? That said, others will say, well, you've got a lag effect. You might as well get started and get started in a bigger way, as opposed to be more incremental. Well, look, I do think that the word is out to the journalists, some credible journalists, that they are expecting 50. Now, the problem, Carl, is that we had huge bets made on Friday in the housing business. If housing doesn't get to 50, you're going to see the major weakness there. I don't know where the MAG 7 can be able to take their place, but a number, sheer number of bets that were made as soon as it went to 50 in terms of chatter sets us up for, if we don't get 50, we go down. And that's pretty much plain and slim. Plain and slim. The B of A desk today, Jim. Our team can't help but think it's a lose-lose. 25, likely to disappoint. 50 could renew some slowdown fears. I'm in that camp. I thought that was a very cogent piece. I have 10 pieces on my desk that would indicate don't worry about anything. That piece stands out as something that says, look, we set up the wrong, it's not set up right for the stock market. But a lot of times we have, as you know, we'll have algorithms that'll basically just say sell if we don't get 50. And I think they're going to be in play. So it is, 50 is something to worry about, but now 25 means a lot of stocks have to go down. Well, it's also the size of the cut. And then the dots, right, which is going to give you a little roadmap as to what comes next without a doubt. And by the way, all of this coming is you just mentioned the broader market after two kind of crazy weeks. I mean, we were down the biggest we've been down in the broader market and the NASDAQ. And then we were up the most we've been up for the year, right? We're talking what? The S&P was up 4% last week, best since November 23. The week prior was down 4.6% worse performance since March of 23. By the way, the NASDAQ, very similar story. 5.9% was the gain last week. Of course, we know why we talked about it. It was Jensen Wong at the Goldman Conference. It was Larry Ellis, and we'll talk more about that at Oracle. It was just that trade coming back on to a certain extent, an enthusiasm coming back into the possibilities being opened up by General of AI. But of course, the NASDAQ had been down 5.8% the week prior, Jim. All of which is to say, as we set up for the week ahead, we talk about rates, but what do you make of this market action overall? Well, first of all, it's incredible that we could be so bipolar, that the first week of the month, we literally believe that AI is worthless. You've got to sell Nvidia, anybody who's still overstayed is welcome. Then the Oracle, we have 162 data centers. We could have 1,000, 2,000 from a very credible source, Larry Ellis, and then a belief that Apple's going to have a strong launch. David, I have here in my hand three pieces, which said the Apple 16 is already a bus. Can you do that after 48 hours? 48 hours? 48 hours? And there were really good football games. Maybe people just decided, you know what, I'm going to watch some football not by the 16. These people, these people, the people who have kept you out of Apple repeatedly, and they're back. Yeah, there is a question as to whether pre-orders are really something that is important to focus on. And not that you wouldn't include it in your group of things you're considering when, or whether you want to buy the stock or not. But, Jim, I don't know, are pre-orders as big a deal as they might have once been? These are not Taylor Swift tickets. I mean, these are big instruments. A lot of money as we spend, there's not a hurry necessarily because the AI isn't loaded in it. But you can't get the AI in 15. I want the AI. I think it's beautiful. Carl, I think that when you base Apple's future on the first 72 minutes of age, which is about what they have with these pieces, they chin up these pieces. They want to make a splash. Carl, when you look at the history of Apple, these launches are why people sell. And then they have incredible remorse, but not until the stocks are 240. Yeah, I know. This is Mingchi Kuo. Every dude that we do this every time, Jim, he gets under your skin. He does, though, do an analysis of opening weekend, as you say. And his work leads him to believe that the 16, the pro and the max, we should be specific, are going to open up maybe for the first weekend down. What, 13% from what the 15 did? Honestly, I care more about Will Holmes things. Is Mahonk, does his Mahomes like it? I mean, honestly, if we're going to be able to play that game, if we're really going to focus on that, I want to see who went off. And what are we hearing from Kamara? What does Kamara from New Orleans say? I mean, honestly, I think these people, they make their bet. They make their splash. And then David, people sell Apple at 214. And then they wonder, why didn't I catch the move from 5 to 214? Oh, yeah, it was because Mahomes said that sales weren't that good. Well, yeah, you've got the typical bulls coming out and defending. Of course, Gene Munster was a guest on Squawk Fox not long ago, talking about the SuperCycle, and of course, Dan Ives. He of the channel checks coming out and defending on the X platform as well, talking about being undeterred in terms of that SuperCycle. This is SuperCycle's band. The SuperCycle's band. One thing that does give people pause is the multiple gem. We're back up at 30 times. And when you compare it to the likes of a meta or an alphabet, it's a big dispersion. But we're still not willing to include the fact that they have a revenue stream, the service stream, that is very much Tim Cook holds your ears because I know he doesn't like to have things equated to a Gillette razor, which really, I don't blame him because those aren't all that high tech. But you do have this tremendous razor blade theme. You know, Carl, we don't see the service revenue go up during the first 72 minutes that these jackals come out and say, listen, it's no good. But I also am not buying a SuperCycle. Maybe there's something in between. How about really good sales? That's what I'm looking for. And then maybe a good service stream. I'm not asking. I am not asking for a Super Bowl champion. I'm asking for the playoffs. They'll deliver the playoffs. Right. He's never going to stop with the football stuff from now until the Super Bowl. I think he's worried about A.J. Brown. We're in his head today. It's just, it's, it's, it's, every, every other sentence. I'm just saying or football. That's basically all you're going to get out of him for the next seven months. 55 million people play fantasy. And we all relate companies to players. And, and Kamara's apple. You know, Carl, I'm not buying into the negative thesis, but I'm also not saying it's Lombardi. It's not the greatest ever. We will see tonight, Jim, going to be an important one. Yeah, wow. For the second time and just over two months, the FBI is investigating what it's calling an apparent assassination attempt against the former president. Let's get Damon Jaffery's with the latest morning, Damon. Good morning, Carl. Here's what we know now at about 2 p.m. on Sunday. Secret Service agents were clearing a path for former President Trump as he played a round of golf near his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida. Officers then came across a man with a long gun who was hiding in the bushes. They engaged that person, fired shots at him. He fled on foot, made his way to a nearby vehicle and took off at a high rate of speed. Nearby, Martin County Police flooded I-95, spotted the vehicle, trapped it in a maneuver with the other vehicles that they were operating and took the driver into custody without incident. Officials said the man had an emotionless response to the arrest. He didn't ask why he was being detained. He said little. Officials said the man was 58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh, and he was just 400-500 yards away from Trump on the golf course at the time that he was stopped by the Secret Service. His motive here is unclear. Routh has told news outlets that he had gone to Ukraine to help its war effort, and he has spoken publicly about Ukraine's admitting foreign soldiers, and has said in the past that he was working to recruit people for the war effort there. Not yet clear whether any of that is true. Officials are going to need to confirm his travel history and comb through all of his social media and other information. Officials also said he had a semi-automatic rifle with a scope, two backpacks, which were hung on a fence that had a ceramic tile for bulletproof protection in them, and a GoPro camera with which he was apparently going to take pictures of whatever it was that he intended to do there. So now, guys, the investigation really begins to move into motive and whether this attempted assassin acted alone. All of this coming just two months, as you say, Carl, after the first assassination attempt against Trump, that was an attack that nearly killed the former president, missed by inches, led to the resignation of the Secret Service Director, and raised questions about the quality of leadership at the protective agency. Those questions swirling again this morning, Carl. Back over to you. Hey, man, there's some reports this morning that the former president is going to be briefed today by the acting director of the Secret Service. The other question is, how would any would-be assailant know that golf was on the former president's schedule? That's going to get some notice today as well. Yeah, I mean, one question is how long was he there, right? So they're going to have to reverse engineer all of his movements. You know, he did have the backpack with him. Did he have provisions with him? Was he camped out for some period of time there, waiting for Trump? You know, it's well known generally that Trump plays a lot of golf on weekends. And if you know what state he's in, you know what golf course might be likely, but to narrow it down to that specific window of time seems difficult without some either intel or lying in wait for an extended period of time. We'll have to find out more as we go along here, Carl. Hey, man, thanks. Talk to you later this morning, Amy Javors in DC. When we come back Oracle, among the names coming off that big week for the AI trade. Listen to what Larry Ellison had to say about NVIDIA and Jensen Wong when we come back. In the meantime, take a look at the pre-market still split, although the Dow leading the charge at this early hour. Stay with us. Support for this program is provided by Chevron. The anchor offshore platform is utilizing breakthrough technology to enable us to produce oil and natural gas in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico at pressures up to 20,000 PSI, a new industry benchmark. Anchor is part of Chevron's plan to produce 300,000 net barrels of oil equivalent per day by 2026 in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico, home to some of our lowest carbon intensity producing operations. That's energy in progress. Visit chevron.com/anchor. Ryan Reynolds here for Mint Mobile. With the price of just about everything going up during inflation, we thought we'd bring our prices down. 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Number of AI players coming off a week in which their shares jumped by double digits oracle among them, stocks also up 18% in the last month, Jim. And we mentioned this upgrade out of Mealeas today. Look, I think it's an important upgrade, because Ben Rice just comes in and basically says, "Look, I missed 50%, but there could be far more." And he also talks about the notion of these companies being basically friends. That companies rent the new data centers, the Oracle's Building, Oracle gives them business. David, these are all sworn enemies. It seems somehow to be creating some sort of... It's not a coalition, but there are companies that aren't friends that haven't been in a long time. I'm trying to figure it out. Yeah, I mean, again, to your point, and the piece himself, he goes on to talk about the partners, so to speak, that need to work with Oracle, even though it is a cloud competitor in other ways as well. But they run a lot of the Oracle, the actual database stuff as well, in part to help their customers. Well, look, I think that to come in now is to say that the real dream of 162 data centers, which is what Ellison has, to 1,000 or even 2,000, that continues to have cogency. You know, Carl, Oracle's an amazing company. It's playing catch-up. All we ever used to talk about... We talk about Google, we talk about Amazon, Amazon Web Services, we talk about Microsoft Azure. Suddenly, Oracle is not only in the conversation, but maybe Oracle is one of the most... Maybe the most important, because they are getting the space that people really need, because the data centers are very hard to build. And Ellison apparently is distinguishing himself as the person who knows how to build them fastest, bestest, quickest. So it does matter. Jim, Amelius does go on to say that they've built a great AI first cloud architecture that features off-box virtualization with non-blocking networks that maximizes computing density per megawatt. Now, I don't know, the non-blocking part of that, I mean, usually you want blocking, right? Like, you know, I mean, they're non-blocking. That's like the get-off fence of line. You want them to block, not non-block, but... What's offensive line? What's that in reference to? I'm just coming back at you. Honestly, I'm not quite sure what that means other than I assume it means that they are more energy efficient, which is obviously a key that we talked about so often, Jim. Take a look at a stock, GE Vernova, GEV. A lot of people are saying it's a windmill company. Give me a breakdown, Coyote. What this really is is a... This is called an absolute bonanza for companies that need natural gas power. Look at that. That's data center from saying, any windmill? Yeah, that's what's turned the whole utilities playbook upside down. As for Oracle, Jim, the sound that got circulated over the weekend in which Larry Ellison describes what dinner sounds like between him, Elon Musk, and Jensen Wong. Take a listen. If you listen to Jensen Wong, and I'm sure you do, I know you do because I've seen his stock price, and I know... I went to dinner with Elon... In Nobu Palo Alto, I went to dinner with Elon Musk, Jensen Wong, and I went to dinner, and I would describe the dinner as Oracle and me and Elon begging Jensen for GPUs. Please take our money. Please take our money. By the way, I got dinner. Please take our money. No, no. Take more of it. You're not taking enough of it. We need you to take more of our money. Please. It went okay. It worked. That's how he used to stay in 90% margins, I guess, Jim. Three billion years walking to a bar. Now, I have to tell you that this is so different from where we worked two weeks ago, but it's very similar to what Jensen Wong talked about in Goldman, which is basically it's a highly emotional process. David, since when is it a highly emotional process to try to get something that costs $40,000? It's a good question. It is somewhat unique in the annals of technology, I guess, Jim, to think of emotion being a part of the entire process and how... I mean, Ellison spoke to the competition that we talk about so often in terms of being able to get access to the chips that you need, the GPUs, lack well being the latest iteration. To run these enormous models that have to keep consuming vast amounts of data, keep pushing generative AI further and further ahead. To the point where one day we actually start to see applications that we all can recognize on the consumer level, not just the enterprise that actually generate a real return for those spending the hundreds of billions of dollars to run those models. Well, Hawk team would tell you not yet, not yet. You got to stay with the hyperscalers. The big guns, which I think is absolutely true. Elon Musk has said critical things about Jensen. In the last conference call, he said nice things, but you really want to get it right with Jensen. And I'm not sure whether Musk is getting it right yet. Jim, when we come back, West Coast edition of Your Mad Dash will count down to the opening bell. We'll get to Boeing, Intel, Disney, the cruise lines, Ford, TikTok big day today when we return. Whether you're scouring business financial sites or listening to economics podcasts like this one, you'll find there's no secret to successfully managing your company's finances for the future. You just need PNC corporate and institutional banking, whose team of dedicated relationship managers bring 160 years of experience, advice, and an array of tools and tech to scale to any size business. PNC Bank, brilliantly boring since 1865. PNC Bank, National Association, member FDIC. Ryan Reynolds here for, I guess, my hundredth mint commercial. No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. No, no, no. Honestly, when I started this, I thought I'd only have to do like four of these. I mean, it's unlimited to premium wireless for $15 a month. How are there still people paying two or three times that much? I'm sorry, I shouldn't be victim blaming here. Give it a try at midmobile.com/switch, whatever you're ready. Take a look at some NASDAQ 100 laggards pre-market. The chips are not helping out today. Mic run down almost four. You see SMCI. We'll talk about Intel later on. And, of course, Jim has arm holdings on tonight with Renee Haas, Mad Money, 6 p.m. Eastern Time, opening bell coming up in four minutes. Time for a cross-country mad dash. Don't have much time, Jim. I know you want to talk a little T-Mobile. I don't need time. September 18, meeting Mike Seibert, then, of course, on Mad Money. Do you think he doesn't want more about Apple and sales than these three stooges who said that Apple's already time to go sell it? That's what I'm going for. I'm done with my time. I see it to you, Senator. All right. We got cowbells here, so that's not going to be good either. That was very first. Thank you. There it goes. Yep. If you can hear me, the opening bell and the CNBC real-time exchange at the big board, staffing services provider K-Force, celebrating a recent transfer from the NASDAQ and at the NASDAQ, the general consulate general of Mexico in New York, commemorating the 214th anniversary of Mexican independence. So, Jim, again, if you can hear the sound of my voice, we've got to work our way and chop a lot of wood to the Fed, but between now and the Fed, we will get retail sales. Look, I need retail sales. I'm going to be looking at another one of those numbers. All we're going to do is talk about $25.50. $25.50. We're missing the forest through the trees. What matters is we're in a rate-cut cycle and a rate-cut cycle you buy a lot of stocks that should generally really start companies accelerating because they've been hurt. That's why I say the homebuilders are going to get hit on it if we do $25. But then you've got to come right back to them because a rate-cut cycle lifts a lot of boats, including this one. So, I don't know, Carl. I am not in the camp, which just says, "If it's 25, it's no good. If 50, it's no good." But I am in the camp, which says, "That particular day is going to have a lot of volatility and a lot of people are going to freak out." I'm urging people not to freak out about $25 or $50, even as it will be the major source of discussion. Why $50? Why not more than $25? It's a parlor game, Carl, and I don't want to play it, but I recognize it's here. All right, put it in a rate-cutting cycle. What do you want to buy? Do you want to keep buying cyclicals? We'll talk about the Boeing strike. There's a lot of companies that feed into Boeing, and I wonder, does that start to become an issue? I think it will. There's not that much distance, I believe, between management and what ranking file won. But I think the ranking file betrayed the actual leadership. Look, I guess now I think that was supposed to be a sweetheart deal for Boeing. David, there's a downgrade today, Colgate. Colgate's an exceptionally well-run company. It just keeps making the numbers. If you looked at the chart, there's no way it's like Machu Picchu. It just doesn't go down. But they take it to sell at Wells Fargo. This is what I still see. I still see a lot of the consumer companies that are recession resistant. I see them continue to climb. That is what ends, and that money goes, some more cyclicals. You can hit up anyway. Hit up Coca-Cola. Coca-Cola looks like Nvidia without the downturn. Maybe that changes. Those stocks are up too much. Yeah, you got some interesting moves. You're right. I mean, by the way, look at Philip Morris. Taking a look at that name and the move there. Not to mention Walmart. I talked to some people and they come back to me on something called factors. I don't even want to get into it. But a new way of measuring or not even that new hedge fund performance and people buying these names because of the way that they're assessed in terms of their various factors. They're not shorting stocks anymore as a hedge. They actually buy other names such as a Walmart or Philip Morris to offset some of the other factors on their own P&Ls. I'm not going to go into it, Jim. But those moves are stunning. Not just Walmart, obviously. But look at that one in Philip Morris. Oh, geez. I mean, but you notice all these have a possibility of a tip except for Walmart. You know, Carl, I first looked at those stocks to roll over. Coca-Cola being the one that is the best. In fact, that's cool. I read this one. Coca-Cola is a mega cap consumer product stock. But those stocks have to become donors, shared donors to the likes of companies that let's take. Home Depot? Home Depot is at the precipice. It either has to climb or we've decided that we're going to stick with the recession stocks. And that would be a bad sign. If we stick with Coca-Cola and don't go over to Home Depot, Carl, then people don't think that the Fed's going to be doing its job making the economy stronger. Yeah, I don't know. Jim McDonald's is about to reclaim 300 after losing 50 bucks in the middle of the year. I think it's JPM goes to 290 today. People love those stocks. I saw yum numbers going up. I have to tell you, other than Wingstop, these things are expensive. David, when you go to McDonald's, are you not shocked about the $7 Eggbook muffin? I'm going to admit, you're shocked. It floors me every time, Jim. I know that I knew that you and I had something in common. Plus the Wendy's up paid, even though Wendy's has got very subpar performance. This bet is a contrary bet to what I'm seeing. But McDonald's became a charm stock car. I don't know how McDonald's became a charm again. Maybe it's because they're willing to stick by the $5 meal, but you don't really get much food. Well, you can look at the chart and see the day where they announced the $5 value meal in July. And from there, it was just a matter of driving traffic again. Well, it turns out that it matters tremendously at that level, which is why we have to see what Brian Nickel does with Starbucks. I have to tell you, I only waited 7 minutes for a Starbucks on a Saturday. That's a winful. If you can only wait 7 minutes, that's going to ignite that stock because sometimes you have to wait like 12-15 minutes and then you forgot what you wanted. Yeah, although you really believe the changes he's made and what a week in the job are already having an impact? Well, people are writing off Apple after 3 days, yes! Now, I have to tell you, he hasn't come up. He's actually being thoughtful and coming up with a plan. And the plan requires you to figure out what to do with mobile orders, so there's no Mosh Pit. You know, Carl, it has to get to be not a third place, but a place that you can sit down and feel comfortable. Right now, Brian doesn't have that. I've suggested that they have mobile order and pay stores, and then they have stores that are third place. This is something that Kevin Johnson, a couple of CEOs ago, suggested never happen, Carl. But it would be nice to be able to go to Starbucks, get your coffee and sit down. Is that too much to ask for, sir? We are seeing significant weakness in mega-cap tech in particular. Nvidia shares down about 3.7%, reversing obviously the gains of last week. We've talked a lot about Apple. It is one of the leaders on the downside, again, roughly about 3.7% decline. But also meta alphabet Amazon, Microsoft, all down, Gem at this point, Tesla as well. You know, again, we pointed last week where we saw such a significant rally in those names, followed by the previous, the week previous to that, where we saw a lot of the declines, unclear. And again, we do have a Fed meeting right in the middle of this week. Well, people are just wearing a Gem at throwing these stocks around. The first week of the month, these were dead. Last week, you had to be in them. Can I just suggest that people take a deep breath, see what the Fed says, stop trading the mega-caps like their ragdolls. There you go, Paul. There's the bell to stop trading the mega-caps like the ragdolls. Jim, we mentioned the consumer. I know you saw this mad boss note on the cruise lines in which he quotes some management is saying they were, quote, "zero signs of softening in any lead indicator." I think RCL is about to take out its high of the year. Look, those are, I think that those are just extraordinary numbers because the cruises are actually a great buy. Everyone knows that they're versus a hotel room, they're extraordinarily inexpensive. When you go on a cruise, it doesn't break your budget. Almost everything else, though, has reached the outer limits of what people are willing to spend. The American Express is the way to monitor that. I think the American Express have been a great quarter. But when every seat down, people start thinking small business not doing well, and the millennials and Gen X and Y aren't spending that much. But when they do spend, they do spend on the cruise lines. There, that's a good example. Watch that stock. That's reclaimed 260. When it reported last, people were very, very down on what the numbers were. David, are we going to grade the consumer by the minute? Well, of course we are. Of course we are. That's what we do. Yeah, of course. Well, is that helpful? Is that helpful? No, of course not. No, it's not helpful at all. But we got to do it. What else are we going to talk about? Well, it's not a horse race. I mean, we don't have companies that are coming in dead last. I mean, we don't have companies that are hung at the wire. I mean, can't we just say that business is good at some places and not as good as others? Is that too simplistic? Is that wrong? Do you think I'm going to tell Hawk 10? I'll tell Hawk 10 that his business isn't doing that well because it comes down today. I'll do that if you tell me if you give me the high sign on that. I'm looking forward to that interview that you've got coming up later because we haven't heard from him too often of course and as we point out. I mean, the market cap there has been higher but it is still one of the biggest at a little less than $800 billion in market value obviously. Well, Hawk doesn't suffer fools gladly on the call. You basically hear the contemptuous nature he has for those who don't do homework. Don't do homework. So Carl, I spent most of the non-football time studying Broadcom so that I'm not upgraded by the magic man that is Hawk 10. Speaking of what people are watching, we had a discussion during the break about the Emmys and what it means for Warner and Hulu FX Disney. Certainly got some news regarding media over the weekend, David. Yeah, we have the Disney Direct TV dispute resolved perhaps not unexpectedly but not after a period of time when Direct TV users were unable to watch key sporting events for example. And it resolved in a similar fashion as we've seen a number of these now where perhaps fewer channels that they have to take opportunity to have Disney Plus available and supported to their subscriber base. Again, not unlike the deal that Disney did with Charter roughly a year ago and similar in some ways again to the deal that we talked about a lot last week between Warner Bros. Discovery and Charter which operates as our viewers know under the Spectrum brand for both broadband and wireless as well. Warner Bros. Discovery shares had a nice move last week as you see Disney shares up and a bit of a file through this morning though not much but the stock did get in the mid-8s which is saying a lot for Warner Bros. Discovery given it was a lot lower than that not long ago Jim. Again when you put it in perspective over any period of time it still looks horrible. They also are coming off a nice movie release with Beetlejuice Beetlejuice. That's right another solid weekend. Well look I think that company benefits from lower rates. Warner Bros. Discovery may be like a home builder company. I mean they need to see rates down if they have to refinance. Now one of the things that David Zasloff would say immediately is what is Kramer talking about? We don't have any expiration. There's nothing we don't have to pay off any bonds. No it's just a perception that maybe they have to get that balance sheet fixed and any good news does matter. David I'm going to go to you on Disney. My child was just on Disney and I mentioned that so that you can have a good laugh at my expense and call me basically Mo. I don't know Champ. I don't really care which one you call me. But if that stock were to bottom that would be huge because it has just been an eyesore. It's a pimple. It's something that has to be popped. That's really valuable. If it were to bottom that would be helpful. Yeah thanks Jim. Well that's the kind of insightful analysis we look for here on Squawk in the street. Well how about Nike? You should that bottom. I was a footlocker on Friday David. Are you going to go for all your greatest hits here? What are you doing? Well listen Boeing man. No I'm just talking about how there are some stocks that seem to have been left behind. You know Smith, Corona, Martian. You remember that? Yeah I guess I do sure. It's a typewriter company. No I mean like you don't want to be one of those. You don't want to be Knight Ritter. You don't want to be some company that we don't care about. I think the Disney's time is now. They have to start growing. David this is maybe this is the beginning. This you know 70 cent move. Could that be the beginning? Sure. Sure Jim. It could be the beginning. Why not? Why not? Well they still have to settle the dispute of the Hulu valuation with Comcast. That has gone into extra innings to say the least at this point our parent company. What is going on there? Not sure really. Yeah I'm not certain as to exactly what is going on there. But what's going to be the catalyst for getting this stock higher then if you're excited for the for potential bottom here so to speak Jim. I'm talking Disney. I can't think of one. Oh that's one. Okay. That's really helpful too I guess. But you still own it. You still you still or I should say it's still in the. We sold some we sold some into the PELT sale. We knew to do that. You did. Well then we started thinking you Johnson the CFO Bob Eiger CEO for life with maybe executive chairman flight with maybe two CEOs. I don't know what the structure will be. But I can tell you David that this is one of the worst acting companies that my child will trust is ever owned. Other than oh yeah I'll throw some. Here's some arson. Bals health. That was one we own. That was that was that was horrible. Estey Lord are we own. I mean that's worse than horrible. Yes. This is my worst chance. Which ones. Let's go through them all. I love it. Which do you still own EL or is that out? What about. What about EL? I have ELF tonight. ELF. Yes. After that I would have been a genius. You would have cut out. I know. Could have been a contender. There. I think it's important. Yeah I think it's important that their number their stock has been down because people don't think cosmetic should good. And yet I've substituted some ELF in my wife's in her you know whatever the thing that she makes it says nothing but make up in the bathroom and I put the ELF stuff in in front of the Mac. She looked fabulous. She didn't know it was ELF. You tell me it's one tenth of price. So ELF has been a great stock versus EL. But right now it's kind of been a downturn. Yeah. No. Listen I know all your names and Nike obviously you have a lot of questions. And then there's Intel. Which the government seems to want to give more money to or at least give them an opportunity. And I think your point is. Look at the balance sheet. Yeah. Well I mean the government maybe they don't know how to look at a balance sheet because you would never give them any money if you did that. They have a lot of foundries. They're building. They have more money going out than they have coming in. It's very hard to sell mobile I which they need to do. They're out here. No one seems to want to buy it. But they're very good at floating rumors. They're very good at making you feel like you should own it. And then they just annihilate you. Nike's different. And I'll tell you why. I went to a wedding. The Owens wedding this weekend. Sorry the Mueller Owens wedding. And I wore my Air Force once. With my suit. I wore him David. People thought that I was outside my comfort zone. I felt I was doing something a Bobcraft does. Air Force once. With a formal outfit. That's what you wear. The 50th anniversary footlocker. Take that. Wow. Did you pull it off? What do you think? You did? You pulled it off? People thought that it last. A guy who gardens in his Breony has finally gotten a little more forward fashion. And then when I danced at Pink Pony Club, people just said he's real. He's the real deal. There's no doubt about that. You don't even know what Pink Pony Club is. Not a clue. Not a clue. Carl, will you help him? Help him. I'm sorry guys. I've been busy watching the markets. Dow's all time high here. Jim? You cut me to the quick. You're just like in the cowardly line. You've cut me to the quick. You can't deliver line that, Carl. Well, look, I want this market led by non-Magg. That would really help us, right? We have nothing but magnificent seven. And it becomes a market that people are contentious about. Anything that says, look, big cap stocks doing well because we got a Fed rate cut coming up. That's fine with me. I like that, Carl, because it makes sense. Jim, I want to return to something we've focused on because it is a political football punch as well above its weight. That is the battle around U.S. deal and whether in fact that is going to get turned down by the Siphias Review, the National Security Review. They have 90 days. That goes to the 23rd of September. That said, Nippon still can just pull and refile and is expected to do that. The latest news we have is this looks like it's going to extend beyond the election in terms of a decision coming or something coming from the Biden White House. And so you've seen the stock run up there at the very end. Obviously far below the $55 share cash deal that has done deal many thought prior to opposition from many politicians across the spectrum because of the union's opposition to the deal. Jim, it gives him more time to potentially keep working. An interesting story as well over the weekend about the impact conceivably that moving out of Pittsburgh for U.S. deals headquarters not to mention the closing of the Mon Valley plant over time would have on the community there and on many workers. There is going to be a fight at Siphias potentially. You know, that's made up of Treasury, Department of State, DOD, Commerce. It'll be interesting to see how it all plays, Jim. But it does appear that Governor Shapiro at least in Pennsylvania well aware of the fact that hey, wait a second, this could actually hurt the state potentially seems to have gotten some traction in the Biden White House and saying can we just take a chill pill for a second. Well look, dip on steel is offered quite a deal. Obviously the union would rather have it go to Cleveland Cliffs, which is the other buyer. Cleveland Cliffs has a plan to be able to offset and sell different divisions. But nip on steel wants to pump money into that area. So I think you delay because you might think if you're just playing old voter who doesn't belong to the union, you don't want that area to lose those plans. So I thought that was a very significant move to delay because I think it directly helps Vice President Harris and her effort to be able to try to get ball Pennsylvania. Anyway, Carl just mentioning that in part because the move in the stock. The end of last week continuing a bit this morning. Main time crude reclaiming 70 this morning. Watch bonds. The calendar is not too packed. Today, of course, it'll heat up tomorrow with retail sales and some other numbers. But for the time being, you got the 10 year around 365. Empire did have its first positive number since November of last year. Back in a moment. Keep your eye on crude. As you remember, we got into the mid 60s. Last week, reclaiming 70 today as we keep our eye on geopolitics and inventories. Meanwhile, gasoline, retail price in this country, median now 304. Market definitely on the lookout for a two handle in the coming weeks, although we're switching out of the summer blend. But there's a look at our Bob, which is below $2 intraday, even with a gain. We'll get stopped trading with Jim after a short break. Don't go anywhere. It's time for Jim and stop trading. We talked a lot about the restaurants. We didn't mention the best restaurant, which is Wingstop. W-I-N-G is up more than 50%. They did not raise prices. That was key. Their wings are the same prices they have been. That's why they took so much share. It is such a winner, even though it's up nine. It's the one you want to grab. We're on the lookout today, Jim, as well, for Lael Brainerd. Any C-director, maybe talk about what is reportedly going to be comments about inflation now hitting an inflection point. Well, look, I do think that you need to see more deflation or disinflation than we've had, which is why I'm so confused about this 50 basis point stuff. The economy that I look at is incredibly strong. I mean, yes, steel prices have come down. Use cars have come down. Housing have not come down. Apartment rents hasn't come down. So I'd like to see more evidence of deflation or disinflation. Maybe she'll talk about that. Yeah. Meanwhile, this FT survey says the U.S. still on pace for a soft landing. We will see. How about tonight, Jim, in addition to Arm? All right. Right now, we see Ulta up a lot. Maybe people should start buying Elf because I have Temang who written on it. You know, I've got to tell you, Carrey and Minh has delivered the best numbers in that group, but the stock has been somewhat driven down by shorts. I have a big short position there. I like it. If you want to know what's really going on in this world that we were sending down all these big tech stocks, let's talk to Hot 10 because Broadcom is one of them. The stock is at 800 billion in our company. And then Renee Haas. I mean, look, Arm's in everything. So let's get a little, let's get a measure of these people before we decide that 72 hours is how we make or break Apple, which is what you think is happening. And then who's going to get bragging rights tonight? You or Chuck Robbins, the Atlanta Falcons fan? I made Chuck wear a number 11 when Julio was playing. When we beat them, he wore a number 11. And he was true to his word. He'll probably have to find a new number to wear, but it's going to be very similar colors. We'll see. We'll see what happens. A big week ahead for Jim out at one market in San Francisco. You've been listening to the opening bell on CNBC's Squawk on the street. At EverNorth Health Services, we believe costs shouldn't get in the way of life-changing care. And we're doing everything in our power to make it possible. Behavioral health solutions that also keep your projections at their best, it's possible. Pharmacy benefits that benefit your bottom line. It's possible. 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Carl Quintanilla, Jim Cramer and David Faber focused on a big week ahead for the markets, as Wall Street debates how deep the Fed could cut rates on Wednesday. Apple shares under pressure after a well-followed analyst said overall pre-orders for the iPhone 16 lineup indicate weaker than expected demand. That news did not prevent the Dow from hitting an new all-time high. The anchors also explored the AI trade after last week's surge -- and reacted to Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison's comment about "begging" Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang for AI chips. Also in focus: Jim's "dream" week in San Francisco, DirecTV-Disney agreement ends a blackout, Boeing strike Day 4, a second apparent assassination attempt on former President Trump. Squawk on the Street Disclaimer