DFO Fantasy Podcast

2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Positional Previews: Left Wing

The 2024-25 Fantasy Hockey Positional Previews continue with the Left Wings. Brock, Dylan and Beebs go in-depth on their consensus top-10 rankings at the position and give you their favourite Value picks, ADPs to avoid and breakout left wingers.

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Broadcast on:: 18 Sep 2024
Audio Format:: other

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Expand the way you work and think with Claude by anthropic. Whether brainstorming solo or working with the team, Claude is AI built for you. It's perfect for analyzing images and graphs, generating code, processing multiple languages, and solving complex problems. Plus, Claude is incredibly secure, trustworthy, and reliable, so you can focus on what matters. Curious? Visit claud.ai and see how Claude can elevate your work. The Daily Faceoff Podcast comes courtesy of the Nation Network. Here's your host, Brock Segan, with Dylan D, Berthium, and Michael Beeb's Bondi. Welcome ladies and gentlemen to Season 10, episode 3 of the DFO fantasy podcast. Today, we are going to be talking about the left wagers. If you have just tuned in for the first time, this is our third episode. We've already looked back at the off season, all the moves that are fantasy relevant, how we think players are going to fit into their new teams. And then on the last episode, we preview the center position. This is the first time you've listened to a positional preview episode. We give you our consensus top 10 at position, a value pick, a bus pick, and a breakout at position. So like I said, we are going to be in the left-weight position. I'm your host, Brock Segan, with me as always. We've got Dylan D, Berthium, and Michael Beeb's Bondi. D, how's it going? Cool, good man. All aboard the preseason hype train. We are rocking and rolling now into episode 3, position number 2. Feeling good, though, to get me more and more excited for fantasy hockey. Just had a perfect undefeated week across my four fantasy football leagues. So trying to enjoy that high before it inevitably crashes and burns. But yeah, nice weekend and looking forward to getting more into some fantasy hockey. Yeah, you know fantasy hockey season is coming up when we start fielding the keeper questions on Twitter or X, whatever you want to call it nowadays. But those are starting to roll in and I love it because it also makes me totally overthink my own personal keepers in a couple of leagues. But Beeb's here. We are doing good. This episode hits close to home because I was a left winger my whole life playing puck. And I feel for these boys because they don't get as thought of as the centers or maybe some of the other positions out there. So it's good we're pointing out some absolute beauties here and some people to stay away from. But glad we're rolling and we got we we saw a very nice amount of numbers. Hit our first two episodes of the season. So thank you to everyone who's been listening and we can't wait to to take you guys to your drafts. So it's getting to be an exciting time. Although we are starting to see some injuries already pile up and some some different. Roadblocks, let's say for some players. Well, yeah, hopefully the fantasy hockey or at least the early portion of the fantasy hockey season isn't as brutal as the early portion of the fantasy football season has been. So many injuries across the board to key players. Hopefully we can avoid that in the fantasy hockey circles. But as you mentioned, these a couple of injuries just to get to. Well, injuries in signings. We'll just talk a little bit about the left wingers that that have made news since we're doing left wingers today are Terry Lachman expected to miss the start of the 2024-25 season after undergoing off season shoulder surgery under which surgery this summer is not expected to be a full participant in training camp at this point. Absolutely no timeline. I guess the McKinnon quote no McKinnon. McKinnon basically said he's like, yeah, they told him he's not going to make it for training camp. He's like, but I'd like to see them hold them back for training camp. So apparently it's not going to be there for training camp, but Lachannon's got a motor in them that likes to make them try to come back a little bit earlier. And McKinnon was all aboard the Lachannon's comeback early train. But with that said, you kind of nailed it there. We don't really have a timeline on this one, but I mean, it's not bad when the players in your own room are thinking you can come back a little bit earlier than planned. I think that's a positive sign, if anything. Honestly, I think it'd be more newsworthy at this point if this guy was healthy. So yeah, that's so true. They're in a bit of a conundrum over there. It's going to be interesting to see how they navigate the early part of the season. We still don't really know what's going on with Valorant Echuchkin. Game land is called. Also throw us another wrinkle in the mix. What's he going to be back? Is it going to be at the start of the season? It's going to be a little bit later. We shall see how the avalanche navigate the early part of the season. Another left winger making news. James Van Reebstike, veteran, 35-year-old winger of science, a one-year, $900,000 deal with the Columbus Blue Jackets. We also had Dakota Joshua out indefinitely after successful. We have any tumor removed, had testicular cancer. We'll not be ready for the start of training camp also indefinitely, so we wish him nothing but the best. But that's basically the left winger news. City Crosby got re-signed. He just only will play for an $8.7 million cap hit. I saw some pretty funny things going on around the social media channels. Just like said, we can get you way more. It's 8.7. Just what would you do anything else? You saw the classic. We'll settle on nine. He's like no deal. I want 8.7. Yeah, it's so good. So impressive. What about his third contract that he's done it? Yeah, I saw it. I can't remember who posted it, but he's just basically played this entire career at $8.7 million cap hit, which is was graded now, it's just an absolute bargain. But let's get into the left wingers. Let's get into the positional previews. So as I mentioned, we give our consensus top 10, so we all ranked all of these players. We get a consensus top 10. We go through them from one to 10, break down some of the differences that we have and why we have those differences and make our case. And then in the second half of the show, we'll give you a value pick, a bus, getting break out at the left wing position. So without further ado, let's get right in to number one, left winger. And that is our Temi Panerin of the New York Rangers. Everything came together from Panerin in 23-24. He turned into way more of a shooter, increasing his career high in shots on goal from two to 28 to 303. He had nine, nine more shots on goal, otherwise known as an increase of 48.5%. And that led to a career high, 49 goals. He found incredible chemistry with Vincent Trocek and Alexis Laffrin here. And that trio just became one of the best in the league. And we saw Panerin spend 86%. He has an incredibly high number of his 5.5 ice-hand with those two and no line scored more 5.5 goals together than Panerin Trocek and Laffrin here. The 5.5 production, though, is really just the beginning for Panerin. The Rangers were the number three ranked power play in the NHL last year. And Panerin was fourth of the NHL in power play points and his fourth in power play points in the last three years combined. So really good to see him get the job done at 5.5, but the power play is also lethal in New York. So that is great news. We all have him ranked as the number one left winger, which is different than current AGP. He is the number two left winger on average off the board. I guess it is worth mentioning as well. We operate this show somewhat under the Yahoo Standard League scoring, so we do lead a little bit more towards banger leagues, but we try to incorporate it, I guess, like banger leagues are like one point per hit. We try to incorporate it at about 0.5. So we're somewhere in the middle of if you're in a banger league and if you're not. So you will see some differences between us and ADP based on the banger league stats. We do incorporate them, but maybe not quite as heavily so know the scoring settings in which you are the plays and make sure you are drafting accordingly. And this is the perfect time to plug the best tool at dailyfaceoff.com. My favorite and that is the customizable rankings tool. I have projections for over 650 players and goalies. You can go in there, put in your categories or your points league format, hit refresh and you get customized rankings to your scoring setting based on those projections. So if you're not sure what your league is like and how it's going to operate and who's going to be better than others, go ahead and use that tool. You can find it if you go to dailyfaceoff.com and click projections in the top nav bar. So a really fun tool. If you are new to fantasy hockey and if you're a veteran player as well, it should help. So fellas, we've got our Tammy Panerran at one who wants to start. Let's actually go to D first here because beeps, you get a little bit different at number two. So D start with, we'll start with you here on panerran. Why do you have been looking? Yeah, I think in years past, I maybe still would have leaned Brady could chuck here just incorporating bangers and shots leagues and the premium that you get with a guy like Brady could chuck there. But Panerran increasing that shot total so heavily last year, obviously really noteworthy and just makes you feel really good. One about his ability to help out in terms of shot totals for leagues that incorporate it. But also just in terms of not only being one of the best playmakers in the league and one of the most consistent skaters in terms of bracketing up the assist, but also goal score and out of just adding that other facet to his game that to your point, Brock really hadn't seen before his career high before last year was 32 goals. He obviously smashed that with 49. And if he's going to shoot the puck 300 times, he might not shoot quite as high as a 16.2% he did last year. But even his career mark of 14.6, 300 shots on goal, that's going to give him 44 goals on the year. So I think the floor is just so, so high here. And even in banger leagues, you're really only punting the one category here in the hits. And he's just so elite across the board. Otherwise, I think it's just such a safe bet that for me, he has to be the number one player. Yeah, honestly, that's kind of what I can say for my guy that I have it to because I do have someone above Brady, but we don't get into that yet. But no deal detailed. It's just those little other stats and to Chuck kind of is scaring me, we always thought that there's a little bit more of a ceiling there as far as points go hasn't quite given us that last few years. And until we see him, you know, break into a 90 point score, I think I'm going to struggle to put him as the number one left winger, even if we are accounting for banger leagues. So it's just, like he said, it's the other categories that are a little bit more sure fire. And then if I lose hits, even if I am in the banger league, that's okay. I'll take it for the elite production that I'm getting from the other categories. And I guess that's where I'll go with with, I have Krill Kaprizov at number two. I think you guys both have him at number three that I'm looking at here. And honestly, I kind of put him in a bag with Brady. I think it's obviously dependent what leader and if I wasn't a banger league with strong where where it's a hits equivalent to one pointer, I mean, whatever it equates out to, I would definitely consider going Brady TK ahead of Kaprizov here, or even I have Jason Robertson right in the mix as well. I think all three of these players can kind of league dependently change which one you're going with. But for me, Kaprizov out of the three is just, he just has the highest floor and ceiling for me. His career high is 108 points where Brady TK's career high is 83 points. He only had 74 last year, as we mentioned. His career high in shots is 357, where Kaprizov's is 289. So you're only really losing 60 there as far as career highs goes. And if we're talking about 60 shots, but 30 more points, I'll take the points all day for Kap. And then even in Kap's best hitting here, he had 73 hits, which is not great, but it's also not something to scoff at. We've talked about players that only get 10 hits and they basically, as we mentioned, they punt the category. They more than punt the category. They just throw it away where at least Kap, you're getting a little bit of production in that area. I like just the pieces around Kap. He's proven just kind of that he can work with them a little bit better. And the 110 point ability from him right there is really what makes me drool a little bit more than Brady TK if I'm going into drafts. So for me, Kaprizov took that too slot, but it was definitely hard to make this choice. And like I said, I mean, it's kind of a cop out. But these are, this is certainly certainly dependent. So yeah, take that as you will, but yeah, if points or goals are ever valued more than hits or penalty minutes, then I'm going to cap all day. Yeah. So just back to Panerin for a minute. I forgot to drop his ADP, but he's currently going 12.7. So you're, you're looking at picking him up last pick in the first round or first pick in the second round group. Free soft comes in at number two. As the beams mentioned, I've got him at three, so does Dylan Beams at two is ADP currently sitting at 14.7. The consent or the, our consensus ranking has met two, the ADP number three left where you're off the board behind pitch shock and Panerin. Just a little bit of background here at Crook, he's been extremely consistent since coming into the NHL in 2021. He's been especially great in the last three years scoring 40 plus goals in every season and being well over a point per game with 279 points in 223 games. Overall, he's tied for fifth in goals, 12th in points, 10th in points per game, fourth in power play goals and ninth in power play points, also 11th in shots on goal. So just an absolutely elite contributor across the board except for the hits category, but he's an elite first round talent that to me is falling into the early second and it Capris off looks like an absolutely juicy pick right now. We talked about a couple of guys, Senators last week, Jack Hughes falling towards the end of the first round, beginning of the second round. Now you've got Panerin, you've got Capris off in that mix as well and if you can start your team with two of those guys, you've got potentially 200 plus point players, potentially two plus 40 plus goals scores. I mean, really, really nice start to draft the end of the draft. You're not going to get Conor McDavid, you're not going to get Nathan Kidney, but you're going to be off to a pretty good start as well. Dee, you're with me here with Capris off at number three. Brayton TK as Beeps alluded to is number three. So me and Dee had the top three, the same Panerin, Capris off. Dee, just tell us a little bit about your thought process in there. I guess it is worth mentioning as well. In the grand scheme of things, the average ended up being the exact same between Capris off and Capris off, so technically they're both ranked number two, but we gave a tiebreaker to Capris off. So we've got Brayton TK in here at three. Dee, what's the difference maker here for you? Yeah, obviously it's just his ability to contribute across the board. It's going to be a format dependent, but it's not just the fact that he is elite and hits when you add that into the equation. It's also the shots on goal, 357 last year, the penalty minutes as well. And just the floor that those shots bring, the fact that you can just absolutely bank on him talking 35 goals year in a year out, he's been really dependable in terms of health. He's only missed combined three games across the last three seasons. Capris offs around to a little bit more injury, trouble there obviously, not as sturdy of a build as a player like Brady, so it's a little bit easy to buy into that. But yeah, I just love, like I said, the floor that he gives you, the fact that you're really not going to find a player that's going to contribute in as many categories as Brady could each out will in those extended formats. And then I also think the shot volume just brings an interesting upside that obviously we haven't seen yet. He hasn't taught 10.4% shooting percentage across a full season yet. That's still as high as even if he just bumps that up even just a couple percent, say he's around 12% with 350 shots on goal, that's going to put him up around the mid 40s, right? And obviously if he gets really hot, he could honestly threaten a rocket with the amount that he shoots the puck. So I think there is an interesting upside to Brady on top of the fact that he just gives you such a nice and sturdy floor across all categories. And in those extended formats, I love grabbing a guy like that early, because you don't kind of have to make a decision super early on in terms of which way you're leaning with your team build. You can kind of decide later in the draft based on what falls to you, how you want to lean and how you want to attack that team. And you know that you're never really going to be too far off in any given category just because of the coverage that he gives you. So obviously love to pre-stop and the upside that he gives you, I do think in more limited formats that are really just accounting for goals, assists, points, and raw production like that that I would link to pre-stop. But we do know that the majority of the formats do at least in some way or fashion consider either the use of shots and/or hits two categories where Brady is just the best of the best. So to get two elite contributors like that on top of a guy that like I said has a really solid floor and I think some untapped outside and you know, hoping that that Senator seems a little bit more competitive this year gives the edge to Brady TK for me. But again, it's all going to come down to the format. Yeah, he's an obvious first round pick in banger leagues, just an absolute banger league darling. But in leagues that don't count hits, I mean, it would be surprising to see him drop into the second or third round just because he doesn't quite have the elite upside. His three straight 30+ goal seasons average 76 points, 336 shots, 273 hits per 82 games. So you're getting just absolutely elite coverage across the board if you are in a banger that he's just an absolute category stuffer. But yeah, I think that what you, the point you bring up D is very interesting is that like, we're not asking him to go out and shoot 60%, a small bump in shooting percentage, a little bit of good fortune could go a long way in making him a real just even steal at the end of the first round. But yeah, you don't feel like you can really go wrong with Brady TK in a banger league, that's for sure. And, but yeah, can pretty soft certainly in the mix as well. Okay, let's skip ahead to number four, we've got Jason Robertson coming in at number four, current ADP is 29.1, position rank fifth off the board. So we're a little bit ahead of ADP here with Jason Robertson, beeps has them the highest at three, I'm in the middle at four, D has him in at number five. So Robertson dropped from the number eight overall pick in fantasy last year to the number 29 pick in fantasy this year, the 21 pick drop is due to the back that he scored seven team fewer goals on 82 fewer shots and his 12 fewer assists resulted in a total point drop of 29 points. The truth of the matter is Robertson is probably closer to the player we saw last year than it is breakout 2023, especially when he's only shooting 231 times. But still even at that number, he's a 35 goal 50 assist type player. And if things click again, and he comes back to being that hundred plus point player we saw two seasons ago, then he's going to be a massive, massive value on draft day going in the early part of the third round. So these, you mentioned that he was kind of in the mix there at the top with, with the breeze off with Brady Kachuk, you're the highest on Robertson. Do you agree with me that he's still probably closer to the guy we saw last year or do you still think he's got a little bit more of the tank than what we saw? I think he's, you mean last year or sorry, two years ago when he was a 109 point guy because I think he's a lot closer to that last year we were watching him just consistently running a bad luck to the point where he was actually, I believe a buy low on the show midway through the year and anyone who's the first pick and becomes a buy low, they're definitely running in is either they've pissed off a coach or just bad luck. And we know he has not pissed off the coach in Dallas, he has strapped to that top line. And I think he's maybe not 110 point guy, but I think he's more a hundred point guy. He really excites me when we talk about cappers off kind of almost getting the Brady TK shot totals. Jason Robertson is even closer to that. He had 313 two years ago. So he can surpass the 300 shot plateau that we've seen some people struggle with. We've never seen cap past that. So so that's pretty nice in itself. He's averaged 89 point three points in last three seasons, which is 15 more than we can say for Brady TK, who's averaged 74 point six points in last couple seasons. Obviously, again, hit dependent, bangling, dependent yada yada yada, but realistically, I think at the end of the year, if we're talking about Robertson and cappers off as kind of the same one and two, I would not be that surprised. Another thing that I really like about about Robocop here is just the players around him. We're watching Rupe hence take steps forward. If you can, you know, stay healthy like he has the last couple of years. Wyatt Johnson, though, is for one, a friend of the show, which is we love him. But two, he's taking monumental steps that that I don't think even we could have we could have predicted, even though we have been one of the higher, I think people and podcasts on him. And with that, I think it helps everyone around him and we can see Robertson get a little bit closer to that 40 goal range that we saw him get for two straight years before last year. He is very, very encouraging to see his assist top 50 in the last two seasons. The one thing before is 109 point year that we were kind of saying is, can we get a few more apples out of this guy? It would really take him to the next level. So last year, we saw it with a little bad luck. We saw 13 less power play points and those 13 less power play points mixed with the rest is bad luck led to 29 less points on the year. So for this guy, I just I it's kind of the same same ish as I said for cap, a lot of shots in a great position surrounded by a great team. I would love to see him get average more than 18 or more than 19 minutes. I guess time on ice. He's never done that in his career. We've seen that kind of be the thing that takes players to the next level if they can get closer to that 20 range. And it's certainly there. It's just that's where maybe having such a strong Ross around might hurt. But yeah, I think this is personally, this is where I kind of drew the line. I know there's another play that you guys have in here, but this is kind of where I drew the line in the sand for one pattern and then I put the other three in this area here. And I think you're kind of winning if you get any of them in your second to be on round. But yeah, I'm definitely pretty huge on a Robocop bounce back this year. And I think Dallas is just going to be a wagon. It's kind of scary. I obviously love Robertson, the only thing I really concerns me is just such a large drop off and shot volume a year ago going from the 313 shots, the BSU alluded to a couple seasons ago to just 231 last year. So we're going for up around four again to less than three games. A pretty significant drop off and obviously resulted in the huge drop off and goals that we saw. And I'm just not super convinced that we're just going to see a total change in approach from him. And the other thing I am worried about is just the ice time. It's just such a deep hockey team. I don't know if he's as time ice is really going to climb. And we're hoping that they do stick with Wyatt Johnson there on the wing long term. Obviously that's not set in stone either, but Johnson have the ability to play through the middle as well. So yeah, I just think they could end up with a pretty balanced approach and deployment of their top three lines. And then again, when you just consider banger leagues and the values that some of these other guys can bring on top of it, you know, Robertson can, you know, a little bit under a hit for game, so it's not like you're totally punting the category with him there, but I just like the coverage you're getting with the guy that I had ranked above him in Phillip Forsberg. And on top of that, obviously, excuse me, Forsberg coming off the career here has shot volume through the roof last year, 347 shots per game. So it's not so much that I don't like Robertson. It's just I'm not, I don't see anything that's going to convince me that the trends that we saw last year in terms of the dip and ice time, the different shot volume are going to turn around. He could. He's obviously on the right side of the aging curve as well, coming into his age 25 season. But I do think it seemed like the predators is just going to have to lean on the top line so much more. And I would rather buy into the guy that went out and shot the fuck, you know, 347 times last year than the guy who had the dip and shot volume. So that's the main reason why I have Forsberg above Robertson and redraft leads, but certainly not out on Robertson. I just like the all around value and I do think that Forsberg may be a little bit of a safer pick in terms of the goal scoring this season. Yeah, that's the one thing that concerns me is seeing him go from 313 shots to 231. The year before that he had 220 and 74 games playing roughly the same amount of ice time. It's just to me feels like that maybe 2023 was the outlier season and that maybe he is just more of a point per game type guy rather than being, you know, 100 point guy. But with that said, Robertson at 29th overall does feel like tremendous value because like I think he's pretty safely a point per game guy. And then there's obviously that upside there. So when we're talking about draft day values, we're, you know, we're ahead of 80 P a little bit here. And I think at 29, absolutely love that value. As you guys kind of alluded to already, Phil Forsberg comes in at number five. I've gotten right there at five beeps a little bit lower at six D is the highest at number four. Forsberg just absolutely exploded in 2024, setting career highs in goals assists in 40 goals, 46 assists, obviously points as well at 94 power play goals, power play points, shots on goal, 347. The best part is that it all seems pretty sustainable. He shot 13 point 8% after coming in at a 12 point nine per shooter, his 12 point five on ice shooting percentage certainly isn't outlandish, especially after the predators added some talent in the offseason with Steven stamp codes, Johnson Marshall, so and break Shay. The biggest concern would be that some of those additions affect his ice time and that he he can't maintain that ridiculous shot volume. If he does see a dip in ice time, but I think it'll probably be the depth players of the natural predators that actually do see a little bit of a hit. This is a team that likes to use their third and fourth line a lot. And I think that there's room for them to lean on that second line a little bit more heavily without impacting the top line's usage because Forsberg or Riley Nyquist were so good last year in that, you know, massive, massive role and they're going to go out and they're going to take on, you know, the difficult match ups more often than not. And that's going to leave guys like Steven stamp codes and Jonathan March or so to tear up a bit of lesser competition. So yeah, to me, I, you guys know, I've always been incredibly high on Phillip Forsberg last year's kind of like the season that I've been waiting for my entire life. But it's, it's kind of for like hilarious that it seems like so easily forgot that just a few years prior, he had 42 goals and 42 assists in just 69 games. So he's clearly a 40, 40 threat, he's done it twice now in the last three years. And the season sandwich in between, he was near a point of name, just missed some time due to injury. So I'm a big Forsberg guy. I guess I was probably a little too hot on him early in his career, but he's really starting to come around as a late bloomer here as he reaches his age 30 season. So yeah, you kind of talked about him a little bit already, but you're the highest on him here at four, anything else to really add on Phillip Forsberg and why you're such a believer again this year? No, like I said, I just think everything flows through him. We saw that powerfully take a big step forward last year. It wasn't elite by any means, but 21.6% that would get the job done, especially from a fan base to be in perspective when they're leaning on the top unit so much and more specifically leaning on one guy and Phillip Forsberg as much as they do. So I think if he can stay healthy, which has kind of been one of his bigger issues and you know, recent season obviously last year played the full 82, which was I think a big key in unlocking this full untapped potential that just that he was finally able to do it over a full season. But yeah, I just think the offense flows through him and again, just bringing it back to Robertson and just agreeing with your point, Brock, I just expect the bottom six, particularly that third line, just see a lot more minutes and for them to go with a more balanced approach and similar to what they did last year because it worked so well and I'd expect the same other providers in terms of how they deploy their lines. I think, you know, this isn't a guy in Forsberg who played 21 minutes at night last year, and he was under 19 minutes. So I, no reason to expect for that really to drop off simply because they round about the top six a little bit more. I just think it's going to be, as you said, Brock, those third and fourth lines that suffer a little bit more in terms of their ice time, they're not as deep there as they have been in recent years because they're more loaded in the top six. So yeah, I just love the stability that he can bring you and I think, you know, his upside on top, the fact that he's throwing nearly two hits a game is going to help you out that much more in those extended formats, especially considering, like I said, if you can replicate what he did last year in terms of the shot, he'll be among the lead leaders there as well. Next on the list is Jake Genssel and we talked, I feel like we've talked about Jake Genssel on every episode so far this season, it's probably because we have, he comes in at six, I've got him at six, beams you've got him at five, do you have a little bit lower at eight? Just to circle back here really quickly, I forgot to mention Phillip Forsberg. His current ADP is 21.1, the fourth left winger off the board, so he's going a little bit ahead of Jason Robertson, we have Robertson slightly ahead, but Phillip Forsberg also feels like a really nice second out pick, but back to Jake Genssel, he's going 39th overall, as we've mentioned many times throughout the preseason projected to start the season with graded point of the key to Kucharov, obviously something worth keeping an eye on during the preseason, but you'd imagine that they didn't go out and get this guy to play the second line. Genssel, I mean he missed 15 games last year, but still scored 30 plus goals for the third straight year and fourth time in his career, and if there are any concerns about him no longer playing with Sydney Crosby, he put those to bed during his 28 games stint with the hurricane scoring 12 goals, 34 points in the regular season and playoffs can buy. Now in Tampa Bay, he projects to play on what should be one of the most feared trios in the NHL. Genssel is undoubtedly a high end goal scorer that will likely get 240 goals this year, but has never had more than 84 points, so he may lack that elite upside of the guys that I've got ranked ahead of him, although playing with Kucharov and braided point to a certain extent could certainly change that this year, and to me, I've talked about it I think on all three shows so far this year, that 39 ADP is super, super attractive. I'm all in, not to spoil anything, Beams, but he was nearly your value pick, you know, it's a little funny to take a fourth rounder as your value pick, but I don't disagree at all, that seems very juicy and something that I'm going to be targeting on draft day. You're the highest on Jake Genssel, is it just a product of Nikita Kucharov? That's exactly it. We've watched him excel previously with Sydney Crosby, who's pretty decent, I don't know if you guys have heard of him, he's not bad, but I do think that the 140 point potential Kucharov and the 28.9% power play that we saw in Tampa last year was number one in the NHL. If you can put Jake Genssel, I've mentioned on previous episodes, it's kind of been the power play that's held him back from getting to that next echelon, I guess, a point. So for me, if we're talking ADP here, if I'm getting him at 39, I'm fully expecting Forzburg to go 40 in my, if I'm jumping past Forzburg, I think they're literally one in the same. Forzburg, maybe a little bit more of a safer bet, but here I'm just banking on the new team, the new power play, and just, I don't know why, I'm just, I'm so all in on Jake Genssel this year. I watch an aging Steven Stamkos, even if he has Steven Stamkos go 40/40 last year, while playing a lot less ice than I do believe that Genssel's going to get this season in maybe not a lot less, but I could definitely see Genssel being able to hold a minute or two more of a defensive hockey out there, which might help a little bit more, but one thing for Genssel that we're really going to need to see happen, you kind of mentioned it is the shooting we need, we need to see his shots get to 300, I believe, for him to actually truly surpass the likes of Phillip Forzburg, but he does have that ability, but with that he has to also have the health that comes with it. The last time we saw him complete 82 games was in 2018-19, with that said he had a couple of 78 and 76 seasons, but if he's going to get to the 100-point plateau, even the 90-point plateau that we've never seen in his career, he is going to have to play basically every game and stay healthy up there, but yeah, I guess it's, for me, it's the excitement of a new team. It's the ceiling that I'm very excited for as we have been a new team, but we saw what he did in Carolina when he was put in a situation that he can really excel in, which is crazy to say, because he was quite good in Pittsburgh, but yeah, I honestly don't know if it came down to it though, if I go him or Forzburg in a draft, I'd have to basically see who I took first and see kind of how I'm feeling that day, and if I like moustaches or not, so. The ADP will probably make that decision before you because you're going to have to make that decision much earlier, unless you know you're that high on Jake Genssel, I don't blame you, like I'm all in on this guy too, I'm very excited. Yeah, I could justify a reach. D, you feel a little bit less all in on Jake Genssel having him ranked as the eighth left winger. His ADP is consensus seventh left winger off the board. Why are you a little bit lower on Jake Genssel? I wouldn't even say I'm that much lower. I think it's a really similar tier with the three guys that I have there, and it's probably going to be format that either dictates it. And you know, the one thing that, the same thing that, you know, that I love you guys in terms of his upside this year, the potential of playing alongside, great employee Nikita Kucharov at 5v5 is also what scares me a little bit. Just because we don't know for sure how those lines are going to shake out. Obviously, Brennan Hegel saw a lot of run in that spot last year in this lightning team. Not very deep, right? So if we either see an injury to want a pointer Kucharov or just for the fact that they like Hegel there or they go back to that at all, just doesn't leave Genssel a whole lot to play with at 5v5 at that point. So just gave me a little bit of pause. I do love him though. I think his upside this year to your guys' point is tremendous, and you know, I think it's pretty interchangeable with the next few guys that I have ranked there all in this kind of same tier. And certainly, you know, it's probably going to come down to team build. I think that's either, like I said, some format that might dictate your decision here, or simply how you built your team out in terms of if you have a really stable floor already or if you already have a couple of maybe more high variable picks because I do love the upside against there. I think, you know, his potential is there to be like certainly a league winning player. I just think it's such a wide range of outcomes that kind of scared me off a little bit. But I think, you know, just depending on the format or the team build that I have at this point in the draft, I can certainly see myself going against all of them over the other two guys that I've ranked above them here, which is why, to you guys' point, he's just such a good value with where he's going. You can kind of let your team, or like I said, the format dictate that decision when the time comes because you're really not going to have to make that decision until either the, you know, the back of the third or early fourth round, which could end up being like I said, one of the steals of the draft. So I love Gensil is here. I just think his range of outcomes is a little bit wider than a couple of the other guys, which obviously could be a good or bad thing depending on how it all plays out. Well, the guy we have ranked right behind him, if you have any questions about where maybe Jake Gensil might play throughout the course of the season, Kyle Connor is probably going to be stapled to that top line left wing role as he has been foreseemingly many, many seasons. He comes in as our number seven consensus left wing, ADP 39.5, so half a spot later than Jake Gensil, they're going neck and neck. His overall ADP among left wingers is currently eight, so we're a little bit higher on Jake Gensil than the general public. I have them right there at eight Bebes and D have them at seven. I never thought I'd see the day where I would be the lowest on Kyle Connor, seems way off brand for me, but since becoming a full time NHL in 2018, Connor has scored 30 plus goals in every single season, except for the COVID short and 56 game season in 2021. He's averaged 39 goals for 82 games during that time, proving that he is one of the most reliable goals for the wingers in the NHL. His assist production did fall off a little bit in 2024, but it could easily climb back over the 40 mark this year, like it was in each of the last two seasons. Me too, looks like a safe high upside pick in the early fourth round, much like Jake Gensil is. If he gets back to 45, 45, like he did in 2022, that's 45 goals, 45 assists, he could be a weak, winning tight pick. So yeah, you guys know I am always a big Kyle Connor believer, and yeah, this year I'm in, just you guys are a little bit ahead of me, which I never really saw coming, but that seems like Kyle Connor here outside of kind of the obvious. It's just the consistent consistency. I think at this point, if you've taken a couple risks in your draft, you can take Kyle Connor, be fine with your pretty much guaranteed 30 and 45 that's going to come, and you can hope for a little bit better if, you know, if he decides he wants to play 22 minutes a night again, like we saw three years ago, one thing that does kind of hurt his case to put up another 47 and 46 season that we saw in 21, 22, is that Winnipeg's actually a little bit better of a team now their playoff team. They have a few more people that they can use. They have me, no any rider on their third line, and they even like to use Morgan Baron on their fourth. And that leads to a little bit less ice time and kind of as I've preached with other people, last year we saw him get literally two less minutes than we saw in his career high years, and that affected his point totals. Not by much. Obviously, the injury affected it too, but it was kind of the difference that put him over a point per game. So we're going to need to see him get closer to 20 mid 20s ice time, I think to see him go over a point per game. And that's why I couldn't really put him over some of the names I had in front of him there. But as far as floor goes, can you get a more like just, I guess, floory guy also before I send him the D, I think we should mention what we do every year. Yeah, floory D, I think you've met this fellow before, haven't you just made me once or twice. I actually wasn't there. Oh, yeah. I did have one of my dad's hot dogs at a tailgate of a Kenny Chesney concert. So for sure. For sure. For sure. My dad still calls him hot dog boy. But yeah, I think, you know, his ability to flirt with three and a half four shots a game while still converting on the lead rate, career 3% to 14.6. You said, I think it's just such a safe floor here, new coach. So you never know, but you got to imagine you're still going to be locked into that spot with Shaiflee on the top line. It'll be interesting to see how these minutes get doled out in Winnipeg, you know, the last couple of seasons. We saw Adam Lowry on that third line get more time and more run than that second line and namely Nikolai Eelers. So, you know, I don't know if it's going to go up more. Like I said, like you said, these was down two minutes, but I don't think any of us really expected him to continue playing almost 22 minutes a night for the rest of his career. So Kyle Connor at 1943 last year, I have, you know, I would expect him to at least be up around that. But new coach, you never know in terms of how they're going to, like I said, doled these minutes. But yeah, he just feels like such a safe pick going right next to Genssel and obviously he has that upside that he just flashed a couple of seasons ago as well. So I love Connor this year. And like I said, it's probably just going to come down to in that spot on draft day. If you have the choice between the two of them, whether or not, you know, you feel like you can take the risk on maybe a little bit more upside with Genssel in a new spot there or take the guy who you know is going to be around a point for a game that 40, 40 pace. And even, you know, you love having that little bit of upside on top of that. So I do think, like I said, Genssel's highest range of outcome probably finishes above Connor's. But I like the, I like the decision or the opportunity to opt for safety here and just take a player with a super, super high floor in Kyle Connor. So, you know, hopefully maybe someone makes that decision for you and one of them is on the board and it's a rather obvious bit because otherwise I think it's going to be one of the harder decisions on draft day. Yeah. And I feel like the one, like the only reason really that he's dropping a little bit in ADP this year is the fact that he got banged up last year, only 65 games and you guys talked about the consistency and the floor and the reliability and he's really never missed very much time throughout his career. That's the first time ever that he's missed time and he's still got 34 goals. He was on pace for, I think it was 43 goals and like 36 assists or something like that. So still a really good year. If you can stay healthy, he's going to just be right back there in that 40 goal mix without a doubt. And yeah, there's, there's a lot to like, I mean, basically if you're sitting there, pick 39 ish and you get one of Genssel or Kyle Connor, you're absolutely laughing. If you land both of them somehow, even better. Genssel list number eight, Stephen, Samcoast, all three of us have him ranked at nine, but he comes in at number eight, current ADP is 43.1, which is the number nine left winger off the board. So we are slight, well, consensus wise, we are slightly ahead of ADP, but individually we are all bang on ADP here with Stephen, Samcoast. As you know or should know, Stephen, Samcoast is now a national predator, no longer with the Tampa Bay Lightning, Samcoast is coming off his eighth career, 40 plus goals season and the fifth time he's had 40 plus goals and 40 plus assists in the same season. There is no denying that he's been lead level producer ranking 13th in the NHL in goals in points over the last three seasons, but there is some uncertainty given his age 34 and leaving Tampa's elite power play. They were second in the NHL at 25.9% over those last three seasons and Samcoast was fifth in power play goals and sixth in power play points in the NHL during that time. 42% of his goals and 41% of his points came on the power play. So if national is a top 10 unit in 2025, Samcoast production is likely to fall off a little bit. Losing to keep the kucharoff is certainly going to hurt, you would imagine. He led the NHL in power play assist and primary power play assist last year. So you have to imagine that's going to have an impact. Hopefully Roman Yossi can be somebody that fills those very big shoes. Roman Yossi also a great distributor specifically on the power play among the leaders in power play assists and in primary power play assists. So yeah, it's certainly not to be the elite playmaking ability of the key to kucharoff. And you have to imagine that's going to impact Steven, Samcoast's overall numbers this year. But even if he sees a small dip, he's still going to be a great pick. I also think we need to petition hockey reference and get hot dog boy as a nickname for Kyle Conner. I think that's Larry. So far only KFC is on there for him, but hot dog boy might be the second nickname. Because if you go on a guy like Brad Marshall, he's got like 95 nicknames. So we got a big push there, but yeah, Steven, Samcoast, anybody want to talk about Steven Samcoast? Who wants to go first? I don't care. I'll jump in. There's a lot of concern for me here. It's hard to imagine him having the same upside in Nashville as he had in Tampa Bay, even if he didn't see, you know, the bulk of his five be five minutes alongside me, Keaton Kucharoff, the last couple of seasons with a lot of that mean split between the first and second line, and even then just not having as much depth at five, you five to me. It kind of feels like he either bumps Nyquist off that top line. They move either him or Forsberg over to the right wing or bust, right? And then the power play, you know, I like the part of his power play, like I said, you would think that adding a threat like Steven Samcoast is going to help it, but do I think it's going to be as good as Tampa Bay's has the last couple of years? No. It's going to be as primary of a shooting threat as he was on the unit in Tampa Bay. I don't think so either. So for me, the move does impact both his floor and his ceiling. So I don't know how much Steven Samcoast I'm going to end up with this year. I like a lot of the other guys going around him. I couldn't find it in me to rank him any lower because I still think he's going to be a really productive player. But I don't know. In my mind, I have a hard time projecting him from a lot more than 35-35. I think he can get back to the 40-40 that we saw last season. If he does see an extended run on that top line at even strength. But to me, it just feels like his days as a 100-point player are behind him. And I don't think I would be singing the same song if he was still in Tampa Bay. You literally nailed it. I'm so happy he went first because I was a little bit nervous to say a lot of those things just because it is Steven Samcoast. And I mean, if we're going to talk about a guy like Sidney Crosby being just like the guy from fantasy hockey for the last 15 or so years, I think Samcoast is basically the bee behind him or I guess he's right there too. But they're all just big names that we're so used to having at the top of our draft. It was also hard for me to push him down there. Like he said though, I'm expecting like a 35-35. As much as I was excited for Gensil to be in a new team, he's going to better surroundings, better power play. It's kind of the opposite for Samcoast, taking a step back. We mentioned that the power play in Nashville last year is actually an improvement from other seasons. But it was still hitting at an 8% less hit than Tampa Bay was. That in itself, if he doesn't instantly, instantly click there in Nashville, he's going to struggle to do what he did the last few years. And that's what worries me just a bit. I guess there can be the same fears for Gensil, but I think it'll be a lot easier of a fallen for him than it would be Samcoast the other way. So one is younger than the other. And I do have to apologize. I called Samcoast 37 earlier, I believe, when I was chirping him. I'm not chirping him, but when I was giving him the gears, he's only 34. So that one's on me, but yeah, I think just the names in front of me excite me a little bit more. The ceiling's a little bit higher, and the floor's a little bit closer to Samcoast than some of the other names. I just, yeah, I'm with D, I don't think I'm going to have a lot of Samcoast this year. I'm imagining there's always going to be someone who reaches or takes them a little bit higher than we thought, just because it's Steven Stancoast. Yeah, I think it's a little bit easier to project like where Gensil's going to end up in the lineup too, right, than it is Samcoast, it's pretty easy to be like, yeah, it's probably going to be a point to try for Samcoast, it's any number of things. Yeah, I do think the power play is going to be, you know, better than Steven Stancoast without a doubt, it has to be, but 42% of his goals, 41% of his points come into the power play. Like if that power play scores 15 less goals than Tampa Bayes this year, that's going to be a decent hit to Steven Stancoast, but yeah, I still think that it's hard to rank him much lower because I still think the upside is there. But the ADP when you take a look at it at 43.1, to me, I would much rather pass in that spot. If I don't get Gensil Connor at like a left winger, probably passing and looking at some of the other left wingers that we're going to talk about here in a little bit, that fall a little bit later. So yeah, I think we're probably all feeling pretty similarly about Samcoast. I think the floor is solid, the ceiling is decent, but I don't think any of us are going to have a lot of Steven Stancoast exposure this year. Number nine is Andrei Sveschnikoff. D, you have him the highest at number six, Devs at eight, me at fourteen. So a wide range of outcomes here for Andrei Sveschnikoff. His ADP is 44.7, which is the 11th left winger off the board. So obviously we're a little bit higher than the general public there and ADP. Sveschnikoff is left wing right wing eligible, which also helps, but he's been frustrating to own in fantasy basically for his entire career. He flashes the lead ability frequently, but it's had a hard time staying healthy. He's missed one quarter of the games in the last two seasons and he's capped out at 30 goals and 69 points as a career high so far. So you'll have to decide how much you'd like Sveschnikoff on draft day because he went from a seventh round pick in fantasy last year to a fourth round pick this year. And to me it's probably a little bit too rich, but as I already mentioned, I am by far the lowest on Sveschnikoff on this list. What we typically do on medieval fantasy podcast, digital previews is give you our consensus top 10 in the first half in our value bus breakouts in the second half. But D, you got Sveschnikoff ranked so much higher than us, so much higher than the general public. And I'm assuming that's because he's your breakout pick. So why don't you go ahead with your breakout love winger Andrei Sveschnikoff? Yeah, you're right. He's not going to come cheap and a big part of that is his love for throwing the body around. He's got a huge asset and value in bangers league, so you are going to have to pay a pretty penny to take the gamble on finally hitting on that Andrei Sveschnikoff breakout campaign that we've been waiting for. But I do think the upside is there for him to return value. Even at that seemingly inflated ADP, he saw a decline in shot volume last year, thanks to that average time on ice falling to just 16 minutes and 59 seconds, but he still managed that in the season with 19 goals and 33 assists, good for 52 points across just 59 games. He also continues to register nearly three hits again, finishing with 142 on the season, which again just makes them all the more valuable in banger leagues, racks up the shot volume as well. So I think it's a pretty simple argument for such a while, finally breaking out the season as an elite category filler. The Hurricanes four-group is just nowhere near as deep as it's been in recent years. TerraVinan and obviously as we've talked about Gensl, both gone, they're both combining for 33 minutes a game at the end of last season. So that's an extra 33 minutes at night of Top 6 hockey to go around the Hurricanes dressing room. And you have to know that some of that is going to be absorbed by, you know, what was the previously underutilized, specialnikov injuries, due limited to your point product just 64 and 59 games over the last two years, but he does enter the 24-25 season with the clean build health and will quite clearly need to be leaned on more heavily at 5b5. So on top of that, you know, their departures, TerraVinan, Gensl means there's a lot less competition for time on that top powerful unit as well, specialnikov should see a ton of run in the man advantage alongside the likes of Ajo, Seth Jarvis, Martin Etchas, and Brent Burns. He's always been an elite producer at 5b5, but never quite had the power playtime to match. So he struggled to break into that elite tier of fantasy hockey assets, but he didn't finish the team seventh on power playtime for a game last season as Carolina opted for a bit more of a balance deployment of their two units, a luxury that I don't think they're going to have this season. They did have the second best power play in the league last year, so there's a whole lot of opportunity there. I wouldn't expect to be, you know, quite as strong this year just given the fact that they're not going to be able to have a really formidable unit out there at all times between the two, but I do think it's, like I said, they're just going to meet on that top unit that much more. So I look for special enough to become a staple on that top unit and easily surpass the 17 power play points he recorded a season ago. And if he sees the increased users that we're all expecting, he has the shot and hit volume to be in, across the board, category filler, not quite on the same level as a Brady Couturek, but I think could be a poor man's Couturek, especially if he sees that increase in ice time, I think he can top 300 shots, 250 hits, and you can get him near the three full rounds later. So he has the upside to me to be one of the most valuable fantasy assets in those extended formats, so more than worth the role of the dice at his ADP of 44.7, and simply because of the fact that they really don't have any other options, I feel really good about betting on this finally being the year for Andrei Sashnikov. I think last year's point totals are a little bit deceiving as well, right? We talked about him being a bi-loke candidate pretty early in the year, last year he had just two goals in his first 18 games, just 12 points in those first 18 games. And then he went on and closed up the regular season, you know, obviously battled some injuries throughout, but went on and closed the regular season with 41 points in his final 43 games, and then he had 11 points in 11 playoff games. So 52 points in those last 54 games really kind of showcasing that high upside that he's flashed at times. It's similar to the Elias Pedersen thing that we talked about last episode. We've seen so many flashes and great stretches that make you want to believe that he can be just an elite-level producer, it's just a matter of putting it all together. So yeah, I'm certainly not out on Sashnikov, but I think that, you know, it's either you're all in or you're all out at that ADP, and you're obviously all in, and I hope it happens because we've been talking about this breakout for a while, and it's just he's got to stay healthy. It's basically kind of boils down to you, but the ice time is happening because he has to play more. Who else is going to do? Yeah, and like I said, so much more of his upside comes from those extended formats, right? And bangers and shots and being able to potentially with an increase in night's time flirt with, you know, the league lead for both shots and hits. So that's where I feel really good about grabbing him in that ADP a little bit earlier. I think in more reduced, more standard formats, I'm probably going to look at a guy like Connor against him before him, but in those banger leagues, I'm willing to take the risk and jump on Sashnikov this year. Yeah, I think I can't be the only one floored that this guy is only 24 years old too, right, folks? Because I think that has to kind of come into some thought here because as D said, if you can kind of bank on all these him filling all these categories on his worst day, I don't even think we've seen his best yet. And one thing that, you know, maybe due to him hitting so much, that could be why we see him miss some games. But as a whole, if this guy could just put it together for 82, like Brock said, 41 in his last 43 to end last year, if we're getting that type of production, we're realistically getting Stamco's like production plus as D mentioned, likely to 50 plus hits. And that's fantastic. For me, what's going to determine if I want to do this pick is every single player I chose before him. If I have some safeness, I have some floors, then I'm totally okay with taking the risk here. But if there's a couple players that I'm not 100% on, I think you have to let him fall. But again, it's all about how you feel if you're, if you're like D and you know, you really like him, which there's absolutely a case. I don't think anybody's going to bat an eye about you, you taking him as, what is it, the year six, the left winger off the board, I believe? Yeah. But even if you take him there, and even I had him at eight, I had him one above Stamco's because I think now, you know, I think this is the year. It's just, there's a reason he was going so low with previous drafts. There's that that ceiling is so attractive and just we've, like I mentioned, the best is he had to come and just the 250 shot seven, 69 points, sorry, not 79 point, a very nice six nine point season for a few years ago is enough to entice me to taking him before Stamco's with that, with that ceiling there. But yeah, I do like, I will say, left wing, it's a lot, it feels a lot nicer choosing some of these names than it would for the center episode. I think near the center episode, we got from six to 10, there's a few names that I got a little worried about the ADP and where they're being taken, maybe in comparison to some of these left wingers or the right wingers, but at least here I'm looking at some of these guys and where they're going and seems a little bit more steel worthy or a little nicer, a little bit more enticing, I'll say than some of the other names, but again, it all depends on the team you built first. Yeah, just speaking of the team you built first, my math is correct. At the ADP, it looks like you could build something along the lines of like Matthews, Moore's River Pedersen, Jason Robertson, and then especially cough, so you'd probably feel pretty good and be looking for somebody to fill that hits category too if you have a build like that early on, not a bunch of guys that throw the body around a ton, you know, we talked about Pedersen a little bit, 100 hits last year, but yeah, that type of build, the ADP and my math is correct, seems like a pretty good start to your draft. And yeah, number 10, Alex Ovechkin, coming in at number 10 for us, his current ADP is 44.3, going just ahead of Andrei's fetch to cough. We have him as the 10th overall left winger and that is his ADP rank at the position as well. I have the highest on the med 7, D at 10 and beats at 12. I was very close to making Alex Ovechkin my value pick of the position, I opted not to, but it was really just a tale of two seasons for Ovechkin. And last year, just six goals in 20 points early in the season, shooting just 4.8%. We all knew that that was not going to last for one of the greatest goals scores of all time. But he finished the season with 25 goals, 20 assists, that's 45 points in his final 46 games, that's a 45 goal, 36 assists pace. And the shot falling down the stretch was a bit down from the norm. I don't think anybody would really be that surprised if Ovechkin shot volume returns to form. It's just a guy that's done it for so many years. And if it doesn't, though, it's still going to be good enough for him to score 35 goals, which is more than enough for somebody that you're getting in the late fourth round, who also gives you 150 hits with ease. So yeah, if he does start shooting four times per game again, those score 40 plus goals for fun. Yeah, to me, the debate here at this part of the draft is kind of just like Ovechkin or Svechnikov, right? Do you want, they both have a similar profile in terms of they're going to throw the body around quite a bit, they're going to be around 150 hits, Svechnikov maybe a little bit more if he stays healthy, Ovechkin's obviously going to shoot the puck a ton. Ovechkin has had the goals as a whole career where Svechnikov were still kind of waiting. So to me, I kind of just went with the older guard and I think maybe the safer of the two picks, but I don't think that I would argue you that Svechnikov certainly has the upside to potentially be the better pick this year. But for me, I just think that there's still a lot left in the tank with Ovechkin, bit of a slow start last year, everybody thought, "Holy shit, the wheels have officially fallen off here." And then I think he showcased in the second half of the year that is not really the case. So I'm still more than happy to take Ovechkin in the fourth round here and see if he bounces back to that elite level shot volume. Beeps, you're the lowest on Ovechkin at 12. What are the main concerns? Is it just age? Is it the first half of last year bleeding into this year? What are you worried about? There's a couple of things. First off though, I want to give you an absolute hear of a question, he's 41 goals currently from catching wing Gretzky, not sure if you've heard of him. Do you think he does it this year, Brock, since you are the highest on him? That would be one less goal than he had in 2022-23 when he had 42. So do you think he does it this year or do you think we have to wait until early next year? Boy, it would be so much more fun to see a race down the stretch this year, as opposed to like, "Oh yeah, he's five goals short at the start of next year." So I'm going to say he does it like, I think that's just kind of the extra fuel, right? That he might need, like it seems attainable this year, especially if he gets back up around 300 shots. So I would say it's an outside chance that it happens, but this is now Ovechkin and he wants it more than anybody. So I'm going to say that it does happen this year. Yeah, that's a hungry fella. I kind of realized as I was asking, I was like, crap, maybe I should have included this with my rankings, but there's no turning back now. So I guess we'll say why I had him at 12, just for me. Last year, the beginning of the year kind of scared me a little bit. Yes, he did bounce back, but with some of these other names we're talking about, I just think that the surrounded talent is too good to stay away from. I mean, we are talking about obviously one of the greatest goalscores of all time. He's proven time and time again that, you know, age is just number for him. He is going to get you 250 plus shots. You can lock him in for that. For me, it's just, it's the ceiling. I would probably go with a couple other players at this point, but it kind of reminds me the opposite of Svechnikov. If you can't take chances right now, maybe you go with Ove instead of Svechnikov. If you can take chances, maybe you go Svechnikov instead of Ove. That type of thing, Washington's power play too has just been kind of scared me the last couple of seasons. It's not what it used to be just because of, again, just the names around Ove here was 18th ranked last year, which is in the bottom half of the league. And I don't see it realistically Washington didn't make any huge additions this year. He still lined up to play 5v5 with Strowman Wilson and say he changes centers. Now he has PLD there. So I'm really not, I'm really not jumping at the gun on that one. So if you do get him, it's fun, enjoy the legend and cheer for him to get to 41. But I personally don't think I'll be taking him around that spot, even if he has been there done that. And it hurts me to say blah to Ove. But yeah, if he doesn't get above 30 assists, which he totally is proving he has the ability to do, as we saw in 2019 and 2020, then I think his value is kind of going to hurt you at that point in the draft. So it's just not for me. I'll let other people grab the legend and have fun with Ove. But yeah, maybe Brock, you can do that in all my leagues. Take him off the board. Don't make me worry. Yeah, first off, I want to start off by saying we are recording this Thursday night, the 17th. So happy birthday. Ove, I know you're listening, so hope you're celebrating your 39th birthday. Tuesday. Yeah, thank you. Still is birthday, but not the right day of the week. Also my dad's birthday. Nice. Happy birthday Matt. Yeah, definitely two equal people in all of our lives. But yeah, I just think the way that he's been trending down the last couple of seasons, it's just a little bit concerning, right? It's the shop volume, the underlying numbers and his ice time and it's hard to imagine them feeding him more minutes as he, as we just said, just turned 39 years old. I do think Kim and Strom are better at 5v5 together than a lot of people give them credit for. But it's kind of like a slight win in some high event hockey, right? Very slightly above in terms of the course four metrics and the scoring chances for or actually are they actually below and goals against our goals for for 60 with a negative rate at 5v5 last year. I think a lot of that could just be chalked up to goaltending though, but I don't think that he's in a spot where they're going to dominate play at 5v5, like, you know, pretty much all the other guys that we've talked about to this point, maybe aside from Sam Coast depending on where he ends up, he ends up in that lineup. So, and yeah, to be at this point, the power play isn't quite what it used to be. So I don't think he has that fallback option that's going to be as steady as it once was. So for me, this is a good spot with where he's at, like, this is exactly where I have him ranked. My personal rankings is the 10th left winger, but I just don't think he offers the upside as the guys that we have one through nine and even compared to someone like Sam Coast who's full or a little bit worried about, I don't think that's there as well. Even the hits categories fall off a little bit in recent years, he's not going to be the 200-hit guy he used to be, and as I said, the shot volume as well, but still a really nice asset in those extended formats as someone who can contribute across the board, but I just don't think he's that elite category that he once was. I'm not expecting him to be, which, again, happy to draft him here, but I don't think, and I don't think you guys would argue either, that he has the upside of anyone else that we've already talked about. No, just to give you an idea, I've gotten projected at 36 and 33, which is pretty similar to what we saw a season ago, and that would have him end up finishing five goals short of Wade Gretzky, like I mentioned earlier, yeah. So my dad and Wade, and now, so I'm actually going to share the same birthday. Oh, I'm actually getting 41 goals short of Gretzky. My dad, 894 goals short, so I don't think he's catching him any time soon. Just a quick rundown of our top 10 as a reminder, and I'll, I'll leak into our top 15 as well as to give you an idea of who just missed the top 10. But number one was our Temi Panerian of the New York Rangers, number two, Kiril Kaprizov of the Minnesota Wild, number three, Brady Kachuk of the Ottawa Senators, number four, Jason Robertson of the Dallas Stars, number five, Philip Forsberg of the National Predators, Jake Genssel, number six, Tampa Bay Lightning, Kyle Conner, number seven of the Winnipeg Jets, Steven Stampo's number eight of the National Predators, Andres Fetchnikov, number nine of the Carolina Hurricanes, Aleutto Menschkin, rounding out the top 10 of the Washington Capitals, number 11, Carter Verhage, I had him at 10, Beeb's had him at 10, Dylan had him at 11, number 12, Chris Kried, I had him at 12, Beeb's had him at 11, D had him at 13, Clayton Keller comes in at number 13, I had him at 11, Beeb's had him at 14, D had him at 12, number 14, your eyes love Cosby, I had him at 16, Beeb's had him at 15, D had him at 14, and number 15 Kevin Fiala, I had him at 13, Beeb's had him at 18, D had him at 15, so that is your consensus, top 50, we're going to take a quick break, when we get back we'll get to the rest of our value, bust and break out pics, stay tuned. 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Hey I'm Ryan Reynolds, at Mint Mobile we like to do the opposite of what Big Wireless does, they charge you a lot, we charge you a little, so naturally when they announce they'd be raising their prices due to inflation, we decided to deflate our prices due to not hating you. That's right we're cutting the price of Mint Unlimited from $30 a month to just $15 a month, give it a try at mintmobile.com/switch. $45 up front for three months plus taxes and fees, promoting for new customers for limited time, unlimited more than 40 gigabytes per month, slows, full turns at Mint Mobile.com. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today, smart choice, make another smart choice with auto quote explorer to compare rates from multiple car insurance companies all at once, try it at progressive.com, progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates, not available in all states or situations, prices vary based on how you buy. Welcome back to season 10, episode 3 of DFO Fancy Podcast, we are breaking down the left wing position. We are now moving into our breakouts, value picks and busts at the position and since D already gave his breakout pick of Andrei's Svetchikoff, we will just keep moving right along with those breakouts and since I have the next highest ADP breakout, I will go first with your eye, Svetchikoski of the Montreal Canadiens. I don't think that this is that shocking, this is a pretty simple one in the second half of last year with Svetchikoski playing almost exclusively with Nick Suzuki and Cole Koffield. They actually tore it up and it led to Svetchikoski finishing with 16 goals and 19 assists. That's 35 points in this final, 45 games if you extrapolate that over an entire season. You get 33 goals and 39 assists. That would certainly classify as a breakout this season and you have to remember that he is just 20 years old. The Canadiens have a more talented roster this year so he could have more competition for playing time on that top line but it should also elevate their power play which was 27th primarily Patrick Leine if he can figure it out there. There were 27th in the NHL on the power play last year, he already posted really strong 5v5 numbers so if he gets a power play boost, Svetchikoski will be a massive steal in the 10th round. Yeah, like I don't think this one, one of us had to talk about him and I got to grab the low hanging fruit but yeah, the second half of last year, like Koffield, Svetchikoski was great. He is just an absolute man child as well so just an absolute beast. How big is he exactly? 6'3" to 38" according to hockey reference. It looks great. Yeah, it looks way bigger out there. They remember who posted it on X but somebody said they saw him overseas or something this summer and they just said like he is just an absolute joke of a man. He's like 12 pounds of muscle or something like that. Yeah, just an absolute beast. I believe it was Eliot Freeman by the way. I think the really interesting thing here too as well is like what the guys that we're going to talk about later should say Patrick Leine, whatever he does this year could have a big impact in terms of what he brings to that power play in Montreal and that will have a huge trickle down effect on Svetchikoski as well as the other guys there but Svetchikoski just 14 power play points a year ago so if that unit is at all improved with the addition of Leine and just all those guys getting a year older that could be a huge boost and a huge source of potential in terms of this breakout here for Svetchikoski. Yeah, as I mentioned it they were 27th in the NHL last year in power play percentage. That was a conversion rate of just 17.5% so you know even if you get up around league average that's 21, 22% the amount of power play points that are going to be able to go around for guys like Svetchikoski, Cofield Suzuki, Leine, yeah should be a big boost for all of them Svetchikoski, I believe is going the latest of the three I know Cofield is going 82 overall and Suzuki is going, I can't spell Suzuki's 23, yeah 123 so just a couple picks later than Svetchikoski who as I mentioned is around 119 so a couple picks before Svetchikoski but yeah gotta like what you get there in the 10th round from Svetchikoski big breakout coming, beep, add everything you'd like on your Svetchikoski because I know it's a great pick and if you have nothing else to add who's your breakout? One I'm praying every league I plan and did not listen to that portion because I personally want every Svetchikoski stock I can get and second as someone who watched a first round talent kind of take steps a little bit later in their career, Nathan McKinnon, it totally kind of feels that way for Svetchikoski doesn't have obviously the McKinnon generational talent but it definitely feels like there's a lot more in the bag and that we might have kind of worked him into the league a little early in his year 18 season but Montreal is going to be a better team across the board and I'm going to go off on one of their new pickups a little bit later but for me for my breakout it's kind of also a low hanging fruit I feel like and I only see that because I think all three of us tried to choose this as their breakout but it's your friendly neighborhood Jake Neighbors out in St. Louis current ADP 130 or 173.6 and for those of you counting at home that is undrafted in basically most leagues so I'm going to pop off because if you guys will let me draft him in leagues then it's going to be bad news for for other people in those needs. He's only being drafted in 30 percent of leagues too. That's insane well let's hope we can boost those numbers up. Jake Neighbors is entering his fourth NHL season which kind of surprised me because he's he's just 22 going on 23 but he took a massive step forward in 23 24 scoring 27 goals kind of out of nowhere and and I'm down to just ride this train all the way through currently or last year as I mentioned he finished 73rd in the NHL in goals while averaging just 1542 time on ice and 1542 is good for 419th in the NHL so 73rd in goals with the 400 and say 20th in the NHL ice time something's got to give when those both come a little bit more together. He had a 22.7 expected goals for last year tied to the hip of Jordan Kairu and Robert Thomas and that's where I'm really excited for him this year. Last year Neighbors actually excelled on the power play if you were to look at his stats get eight power play goals and 14 power play assists what is even more flooring about that is he didn't get his first power play point until the 31st game of the season so for him I mean he basically went half the year without ever touching the power play his second one came in his 46th game so he wasn't even from game 31 there he still took him 15 games to get going and from there he basically became their number one scoring option on the on power play one and just a weapon for the second half of the season that you could have used to a lot I think a lot of people picked him up expecting just a spot start here and there and kind of rode him throughout the year for a guy going on draft or this late in drafts you can pretty much walk him into that power play one to start this year and for much of the season I think he had seems like the leash is quite long just due to the people behind him the only other left wingers that I think can really push him off the top power play are Brandon saw who we've seen year and year again not really do it kind of just a place filler good second line left winger and newly acquired Dylan hallway who is a giant question mark and might take a few years to kind of get to that point so for now I'm all in on a guy who's power play one line one and playing with two very very good other players kind of just want to shout out Robert Thomas this show has been very big on him in previous seasons and for good reason he took a step forward last year but across the last two seasons he's actually 30 30 in the NHL in points so if you tie yourself to the hip of someone who's 30 30 in the NHL in points and 21st in the NHL and assists in the last two seasons that's a pretty good spot to be in as a shooter and as maybe not the shot first option on that line but still as someone who's proven they can put the puck in the net I think neighbors has a realistic 35 to 4 you go upside and no matter the low end assists I'm fine with that I don't even care about assists with a guy I get at this point in drafts and just the position he's in he's very much set up to have some success this year 23 years old a former first round pick who went 27th overall just a few years ago he's finally coming into his own and I think neighbors is an excellent player grab at the bottom of your draft and say it doesn't work out who gives a shit you got him at 170 so you can let him go and you can say bye bye Jake but but I think you're gonna enjoy him in his last 28 games he averaged 17 minutes on ice and in that time he had 12 goals and seven assists with 58 shots on goal and and one thing that kind of hurt him throughout the year as I mentioned was his 15 and a half minutes average so if we can get him closer that 17 per game that we saw for the last 28 games we could be seeing a real breakout here fells and we could be talking about Jake neighbors potentially being a like 130 pick next year maybe a 100 pick who knows this guy's the limit for Jake you set the might score 35 goals so I mean he had 27 last year and he didn't touch the power play until game 31 so there's all he needs is eight more and and and a little bit more ice time to do 27 in that much ice time is actually like mind-blowing yeah it'll be it'll be interesting to see obviously if you can maintain the 18.6 shooting percentage obviously that's the key there but yeah there's a lot to like about Jake neighbors there's no risk whatsoever with the draft big it's your point like he's not a guy that has had you know historically low assist total throughout his career like certainly not a guy that's gonna you know put up 50 assists or anything like that but he's a guy that should be able to to pop a couple helpers and I think one thing that you know maybe with a little bit of better fortune yeah not a lot of assists last year but nine of his 11 assists were primary assists just two secondary assists so you know you'd imagine that he's gonna get a little bit of better fortune there especially playing an entire season with guys like with Thomas and Kyrieu Kyrieu gala likes to shoot the puck a lot as well Thomas has been just a great playmaker which will help neighbors so yeah just needs a couple more primary or a secondary assistant to help kind of boost those numbers a little bit and yeah I'm not a hundred percent sold that he's gonna be like a 40 goal scorer yeah that's quite hopeful but I mean even if you can replicate with a little bit better shop volume and you know and to kind of maybe offset the regression that could be coming in a shooting percentage this is a guy that's got like 30 gold 25 assists upside probably and he costs you literally nothing in the draft so yeah do you want to talk about neighbors I want to talk about neighbors you want to talk about neighbors so yeah we're certainly a podcast that is interested in them but that could be the kiss of death because I think that's what happened to Barrett hate last year right well the only thing I'll say to about neighbors that he also threw 138 hits in 77 games last year despite the limited role so even if the assists don't creep up it's still definitely in banger league supplement that with the additional hits if he gets that increased ice time that we're all hoping for so yeah I love the neighbor selection and I think especially in banger leagues you can end up being a real steal yeah not exactly the friendly neighbor throwing his body around that much we talk about some cost me in a big boy neighbors at six foot 200 doesn't seem quite as big but still quite a big boy there okay let's move along now to some value picks and all starts since I have the highest ADP value pick and mine is Clayton Keller of the Utah hockey club I was really torn between Keller I already mentioned Ovechkin and Kevin Fiala I think my case for Ovechkin was already pretty compelling but Fiala we'll talk about him really quick just because I wanted to throw him in here finished the season with 30 points 16 goals 14 assists this final 29 games will play nearly 19 minutes per game just saw 17 and a half minutes his first 53 games so saw boost nice time down the stretch and and really came through also sounds a lot like the kings are planning on moving quinton byfield back to the middle he played mostly on the left wing last year with copitar and campaign so yeah Fiala in by field together on the second line could be something that if I feel takes a nice step forward that could help it could also lead to more ice time for Kevin Fiala on that top line with copitar and campaign with by field kind of vacating that role so yeah still favorite of mine Fiala in the eighth round like that value quite a bit so a little bonus value pick there but I ultimately settled on Clayton Keller whose ADP is 72.9 he also finished the season on a tear he scored 20 goals with 25 assists that's 45 points in his final 41 games shooting at a 244 shots per 82 game pace that would be the highest of his career he was on a 40 goal 50 assists pace in the second half of the season but is going with the very last pick of the sixth round so it's not even like you have to bank on this guy finding some untapped potential like this sleeper that hasn't realized his his game kind of like a a specialty cop because he's already ranked tied from 25th in goals and 23rd in the NHL in points over the last two seasons so falling through the back of the sixth round early seventh round Clayton Keller looks like an absolute smash pick for me I don't know how you guys feel I know we've always kind of been hot bothered by the old Arizona coyotes obviously we've got the sign behind beams in the hat on these head right now so might be time to update the merch to the Utah hockey club because yeah I know you guys are fans and have a good Clayton Keller I'm assuming you guys are probably still pretty interested just a reminder I had him ranked as the 11th left winger D was at 12 beams was at 14 so Clayton Keller for me 71.8 D your next year with your value and anything you want to add on Clayton Keller? No like Keller a lot I'm hopeful for the project in Utah but I'm always going to show love to Arizona and the way that whole thing went down the fans getting shafted there so I will not be losing this hat anytime soon but yeah I love Keller this year I kind of think Utah in general is just getting overlooked a little bit I think his ADP is a reflection of that which is you know pretty consistent with what we saw the last few years in Arizona as well but yeah big Keller guy this year loved the upside there and as you said I think it's a great value pick my value is a guy that seemingly finds the way into our value picks each and every season and that is Nikolite Eelers currently being drafted near the back of the 12th round the story of Eelers 23 24 season was one that we are a little too familiar with here on the podcast very productive in an extremely limited role Eelers managed to play a complete 82 games last year tally 25 goals and 36 assists good for 61 points this fight playing just 15 minutes and 52 seconds a game his shot volume remained impressive considering that limited ice time tally 233 shots on goal just under three a game he's elite at driving offensive play and creating shot opportunities but concerns about his defensive game and a lack of really any long-term opportunities on that top line limited Eelers to less than 60 minutes a night for the second consecutive season the decision to leave him off that line really just gets more confusing the more you dig into it mark shively was markedly better with Eelers on his winning last season than he was without they played 409 minutes together to even strength last season averaging 71 shot attempts 34 scoring chances and 3.37 expected goals four per 60 you might be interested to know that in 782 even strength minutes away from Eelers Shively's metrics dropped off to just 53 shot attempts 25 scoring chances and 2.31 expected goals four per 60 so a bit of a puzzling decision there and keep in mind the majority of Eelers time wish Shively came with Kyle Connor out of the lineup the trio that being Connor Eelers and Shively saw just 144 minutes together last year and former now former Jets head coach Rick bonus was quick to drop Eelers down the lineup once Connor returned to full health so with bonus now out of the picture I really think there's hope again for Eelers to have an increased role on your new head coach Scott Arneel Eelers limited to under 60 minutes a night in the both of the seasons that he played under bonus and you have to think a new head coach will be looking to shake things up would at the very least consider handing out more minutes to one of the most underutilized players across the entire NHL so I love Eelers at his ATP right now because if he does see that increase of two to three minutes a night that we're hoping for and sees any sort of extended run on that top line he's going to be flirting with a point-per-game and will be one of the biggest deals in the draft he's proven that he has the ability to produce in a more limited role if for whatever reason he continues to remain underutilized and is in the new regime at which point he would still easily be returning value on that ATP of 141.4 again back at the 12th round so for me just a zero risk high upside selection with where he's going and I really do think he could end up being one of the biggest values on draft day. I think one of the most important things to note about Nikolai Eelers as well is a pending UFA at the end of the season as well we've seen guys have just their best seasons of their career as they head into their UFA years to try to get that big payday and yeah this is we just need a little bit more ice time it is worth it is worth mentioning that's a new head coach it's got our nail called heelers a game breaker is that mean that he's going to be putting him in a role where he can break the game wide open hopefully but yeah he's he he is a guy that needs to be getting that top line deployment he needs to be getting consistent top power play usage and if it happens he's going to go off it's just it's inevitable it's just there's obviously details of his game that previous coaches don't love and it's and it's heard his his utilization but yeah heading into a UFA year I mean if there was ever going to be a year in which he put it all together and popped off it's going to be this one and he's going to you know at age 2080 he's going to be looking to get that big payday currently on a six million dollar cap hit if he has a big year that's the number that's certainly going to go up so I love heelers we always have on the show and if there's ever a year to be all in I think this is it and that ADP is is just absolutely gorgeous I don't know how many times we've got to talk about it but I'm all in once again yeah you and I both it's uh it's getting quite repetitive but uh as you mentioned a contractor can absolutely change a player um and and that's not something to mess with we've seen it time and time again um I am uh well we're talking about proving themselves I guess my value pick is basically the definition of that one of the big off season trade pieces Patrick Linet out in Montreal um currently being drafted 140 ADP um that's basically as we mentioned with some of the other names that's basically going undrafted at the end of a lot of drafts so Linet comes with very low risk and uh pretty decently high high reward I'll fully admit it's a bit scary to put my name behind Patrick Linet just at any time we've seen what's happened in previous years but with that said I've I'm also super down to see him bounce back and for me to sit here saying I told you so when we get about halfway through if that does happen um there was a time that we were legitimate legitimately talking about this guy as maybe potentially one one and two with Austin Matthews this was many many many years ago but I don't think that there's many people in the draft at 140 that you can talk about whoever at any point in their life ever were talked about in the same sniff as Austin Matthews especially with their goal scoring ability and that in itself is something that I'm excited for Patrick Linet can bounce back we we we we don't know what happened in Columbus last year but we do know that it was rather ugly but it just didn't end well and with that I think both him and just everyone around Linet are hoping for uh kind of see what what we thought was so exciting years ago he's still just um quite young um sorry I had his his number up here but Linet is what is it here he's 24 or 26 years old my apologies so he's still just 26 so there's still time for him to you know kind of come into his game he might be just reaching that peak area and I'm fine to jump on board and to take that risk um he's a four time 200 plus shot guy um us here at Daily Faceoff podcast we love guys who shoot and uh and therefore I have to love someone who even has that ability um people you know are gonna call his time in Columbus at a disaster and maybe it was well he wasn't in the lineup but when he was he played quite well he had 54 goals and 117 points in his last 129 games and that was his last three seasons so he was very injured if you count the amount of games missed there but that's still a 74 point pace across a full 82 game so when he wasn't your fantasy lineup he was giving you a 74 point pace um that itself is something that at 140 if I could get 65 points out of him I would be very happy with that especially with how much he has potential to score um one thing in Montreal that's kind of nice is he's really not being blocked by much when it comes to power play usage and that's where he's gonna if he is gonna bounce back it's gonna it's gonna have to come through the power play we kind of talk about it with Slofkoski um everyone around him is getting better and that should help line it as well with with a lot of these young names getting more comfortable he looks like he should fill in on that top power play we're gonna have to see how things shape out at camp obviously but uh keeping on DFO for that but if he does end up top power play and in the top six I think at 140 you really can't go wrong you're gonna be taking a lot of other guys who might be top nine maybe at that point not touching a top power play and with someone who has this type of shooting potential um whether the behind the scene stuff is going on or not we only care about fantasy and when he is in that lineup I think he makes a great addition with huge upside and uh and I think we can all say we're hoping that he does bounce back does go back to the you know 40 goal-ish potential score even if he doesn't even if we get 30 out of him we're gonna be happy um but I wouldn't mind just seeing 60 plus games at a line this year but yeah I think it's a it's a no risk um and therefore a very valuable pick at this uh at this point and I wouldn't mind seeing him on on a lot of my teams I know uh I know I'm super cool with people who are shot first players um at any time regardless of their lineup like this is just so low risk it does not matter yeah I even I think it was really terrific low risk add by the Canadians uh as well um Martin St. Louis the head coach of the Montreal Canadiens he was uh the interview the other day talking about the addition it was very excited to get line and board uh they talked to Kirby Doc uh who was skating uh with Patrick line this week if here's what Kirby Doc had say it's been a lot of fun he's so skilled it's insane his shot is probably honestly one of the best I've ever seen he's released and how well he picks corners it's going to be in a lot of fun to play with him this year it's going to be fun to watch him out there too it's going to be nice to having him on our team instead of him burying pucks past us so uh yeah if if Kirby Doc is on to anything um you know even just like that that's a name to bring up like Kirby Doc being healthy still a very young player him and him in line it could form a very nice secondary scoring option for that Montreal team and from a fantasy perspective there's just absolutely no risk here whatsoever this is a guy that if he is healthy he's all he's going to do is score goals um you know and it's not going to cost you anything on draft day to pick him up and like you know there's there's a hundred other players at the bottom of that draft they're all going to get their opt if it doesn't work out in line is is the same as any one of the guys down there but we've seen elite pedigree from him in the past uh so yeah it it seems like it's been so long you know 2018 since he scored 40 goals 2019 since he scored 30 goals but it's there and he is still young and hopefully he has everything figured out his personal life and this fresh start is going to be great for him but I you got engaged in the offseason so you know he's got to be uh vibes are high he's he's new to Montreal apparently he's learning French through fortnight things are going well through line A very interesting yeah so uh D anything that I don't have to find it really quick before we get to our busts no I guess I think there's or like you guys said I think there's no risk there uh we know what the upside is with Patrick line A he might not reach the heights that he once did because I don't know if he's going to be a premier option at 5 v 5 but I think the power plate production alone could make him a steal of that ADP D you've got the highest ranked bust of why don't you take it away sure uh we're gonna talk about Chris Crider here ADP of 37.3 I think we're all on board with this one Crider is the number six left when you're in ADP sits at number 12 in our consensus ranking so this was an easy one for me given the other options that we've talked about on tonight's show available two to three even four rounds later at the position there's just simply no way that I'll be paying up for Chris Crider currently going in the late third early fourth round Crider has uh turned into one of the more consistent goals scores in the league to his credit but really doesn't possess that elite elite level of shot volume that would make him a regular four-year goal threat he really needs to just have an insane year like he had a couple of seasons ago when it comes to his conversion rate and the fact that he does rely on such a high shooting percentage year to year does mean even his biggest strength in fantasy hockey as far from guaranteed he's not immune to those prolonged goal scoring jokes I still view Crider as a rather one-dimensional asset in fantasy hockey with the added benefit of being a slightly above average provider of hits in banger leagues but even there we've seen his production tail off the last few seasons down to just 99 hits a season ago I think what's driving his ADP up so high this year is the career i-36 assist he achieved last season with fantasy players now viewing him has more of an all-around category filler when the reality is Crider's 36 assists last year are more of an anomaly than anything else when you look at his career to date he doubled the 18 assists he recorded in 22-23 and sword passes previous career i of just 25 so you really don't have to look too deeper than the numbers to figure out where those extra apples fell from Crider managed a 13.6 on I shouldn't percentage last year suggesting his line mates were finishing at a well of average rate obviously the year that pattern had probably plays a big role in that so I just don't think it's something you should bank on continuing the season you basically need it to to justify that ADP and then I think you throw in the fact to the Rangers young four talent continuing to develop around him their serious risk that the likes of Alexi left for a year will coolly Philip Hidel and capital Kaco could eat into his minutes this season whether it be threatening you know his spot on that line which I think is less likely but probably more so is just that third line getting even more run this year I think there are far too many red flags and risk to justify taking Crider at his current ADP considering that a lack of elite shot volume caps the upside of his biggest strength which is scoring goals so even a banger leagues I think there are far safer options that come along with a higher ceiling that are going around and as I said earlier even as late as three to four rounds after Crider so he's a hard fate for me this season yeah like and you take a look at just today's episode today's rankings the guys he's going ahead of Jay Genssel, Kyle Conch, Steven Stancoast, Sebastian Ajo we talked about last week, Andre Spetchtikov, Alex Ovechkin, Connor Bedard, Tave Thompson, I was in a barcoff I'd rather every single one of those players and he's going by 10 picks ahead of some of these guys like it's 12 picks ahead of some of these guys it's it's wild um I just refreshed ADP on Yahoo and it actually looks like the biggest bust of the century's Matt Rempey 2% drafted and current ADP of 39 those pims leagues man yeah also Matthew Nies has jumped up into the top 30 current ADP of 35 2% drafted leagues probably a bust left winger there to talk about but um yeah I'll go next my my my bust is uh current ADP 61.8 all three of us wanted to talk about Chris Crider he's just so evidently the biggest bust on this this episode but B&B's have to do a little bit more digging I don't think that there is obvious but mine's Brad March on current ADP 63.6 March on 36 years old in May 73rd and the NHL in points and tie or sorry in goals with 50 and tied at 60 for 60 second in points over the last two seasons so his point totals have certainly been on the decline he only contributes moderately in the shots on goal in his categories adding the fact that he's going ahead of guys that I like like Clayton Keller Kevin Fiala, Matt Boldy, Owen Tippett most of whom all of us have ranked ahead of this guy it just doesn't make a lot of sense and you just kind of factor in some of the like lack of I guess depth in Boston right like Elias Lindholl, Pavel Zach and David Poshnak I think we can all agree is probably going to be a very good top line but then you'll look at Charlie Coyle and Brad March on to the second line whether it be with with Morgan Geeky or Trent Frederick it's just not a line that really gets you all that excited and that's going to dominate at 5v5. Gone are the days of the March on Bergeron, Passonak 5v5 domination and also on the power play it's just it's a long time ago and the best days are are behind Brad March on and I just don't think that I will have any exposure to him unless he drops significantly later in the draft so yeah I much prefer many of the guys going several picks later then Brad March on I will have no exposure there I will say that Yahoo drafters are doing a pretty good job of seeing this because he's obviously like he's ranked 35th on Yahoo so it could be much much higher basically I think that yeah who drafters appear to be reading through the lines here and realizing that he's not worth that but he's getting dropping so far to the point where we haven't taken these ranks 35th and that's just not where he needs to be going so yeah no Brad March on for me beeps who is your bust as we wrap up the show? Yeah I think just to add to Brad March on and I think it's just classic we like when we're looking at players ceilings for me it's just there's so many more exciting ceilings in front of this guy and no it's good to take some shots at Brad March on as well on fantasy podcasts because you know there's enough going on out there but I will say I originally had cutter goate as my pick and then we realized that he was only being drafted in 30% of leagues so it really wasn't a good choice there so with that said this is my push to Yahoo to somehow change how your ADP works a little bit so that you know the 70% that didn't draft him comes into effect there but because I can't come at cutter I'm gonna come at Ryan Nugent Hopkins currently going at 69.6 a nice little ADP and I think that's just way too rich for Ryan Nugent Hopkins we want to talk about a rise in fall this is probably one of the players that stands out the most to me and one of the biggest let downs of last year's fantasy drafts I think that his 70% ADP is connected obviously to the Connor McDavid exists on the same team and the fact that he had 104 points in 2022-23 but to get that done he needed 53 power play points which was just insane yeah 53 power play points I had to like triple look at that number earlier when I was doing it and for that reason alone I'm so out if it's gonna take a 50+ power play point season to get him over 100 points we talked about it in previous episodes Edmonton brought in a few few names that could definitely definitely fight for a spot on the top power play Jeff Skinner and Victor Arvinson are both shot first players who have proven that they can be successful in power plays before and say things don't click right away um new just kind of the one name that looks like he could get bumped out of the top that incredibly incredibly enticing top power play in Edmonton and if that happens then you basically don't have any value from Ryan Nugent Hopkins last season he still needed 26 power points just to get to 67 total points on the year and 80 games played so say you even take off 10 of those power play points that's 57 points on the year and that's someone we're talking about as it may be a waiver scoop maybe one of these weekend pickups but one of Nugent's biggest flaws is just he doesn't shoot the puck at all almost all top 100 picks will flirt with 200 to 250 shots at least and can give you that category where Nugent fights every year just to get to 200 we saw him reach his career high of 208 in his 104-point season and throughout his 13-year career he's only done it three times where he surpassed 200 shots on goal so that's really not not too exciting from a 70th overall pick for me across the last four seasons he's still and that this includes his 104-point season he's averaging just 63 and a half points in those years that would have made him last year 80th in the NHL in points and 124th in goals with those averages just not something I'm willing to go for when there's really not that big of a ceiling there for him Edmonton's proven you know it's McDavid and Hyman things kind of sticking and it will for a long time and and I think that us hoping that the Nugent jumping in there those days are over with all this production around him and at 70 there's just such high ceilings and guys that are guaranteed power play one guaranteed first shot option Nugent I am out on you this year buddy but if anyone else wants to you know go and take him in front of me let some other dudes drop down the draft that would be perfect but yeah this was my clear bust out in the top 100 here yeah I think you don't need to look that far to say like McDavid had 132 points last year Hyman had 54 goals and Nugent was basically stapled to their hip the entire season and didn't really do much for your fantasy season he just doesn't score enough goals like outside of that just absolutely outrageous 37 goal season in 2023 like his last other three seasons around that 16 11 and 18 goals doesn't hit at all just doesn't contribute to enough categories to be drafted as early as he is again like he's going ahead of the same guys that we just mentioned ahead of Clayton Keller ahead of map oldie um you know ahead of Travis Connect me own tip in cold coffee like those are guys that I you know feel way more categories and are probably gonna have more goals and it's not even like he contributes in banger league it's either where some of these guys you look at their their ADP and you're like oh maybe you know maybe we're throwing the rig around they're doing this um like I think that's the opposite so yeah there's really no case there so and then yeah just to the point right like they're just more and more competition for usage on that top power play unit it's not just Evander Caine and breathing down his neck anymore it's it's uh it's Jeff Skinner it's Victor Harrison um and honestly I will be Evander Caine and I think the additions of those guys might allow that team to just utilize their power play to more and if that happens certainly it's going to have an effect on McDavid and Hyman and Joyce and all but those guys are going to get theirs it's going to have an even bigger effect on the guy like huge who relies on playing two minutes on every big power play or until they score so you get the job done so anyways that is going to do it for season 10 episode three of the DFO fantasy podcast hope you guys enjoyed we'll be back on Friday for the preview of the right wing position until then enjoy and uh we'll see you then been a pleasure bringing you to the lefties peace this episode is brought to you by progressive insurance do you ever think about switching insurance companies to see if you could save some cash progressive makes it easy to see if you could save when you bundle your home and auto policies try it at progressive.com progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates potential savings will vary not available in all states 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