Every day we rise, challenging ourselves to work for what we believe in. At U.S. Border Patrol, protecting our borders is more than a job. It's a calling. Agents answer the call, working together to keep our country and community safe. If you are ready for a new mission, join U.S. Border Patrol and go beyond. Learn more at cbp.gov/careers. [MUSIC] Better Golf Pod Nation. I hope everyone out there is doing well this week. If you're new to the show, I'm your host T.F. Sports. I'm here with my partner Stickspicks, and the two of us will be taking you through the DFS and a little bit of betting to discuss some of our favorite values and fades for this week's Arnold Palmer Invitational. But before we get into all that information, I just want to very quickly talk to everyone a little bit about underdog fantasy. One of the top sites where you can play and hold real money drafts against either friends or random opponents. Underdog has a slew of different options to consider, aside from just those drafts that I mentioned, including their pick 'em games where you just need to choose higher or lower on a particular player. Those options are available for all sports. You can sign up today over at underdog with the code BGP to get 100% match bonus of up to $100. As always, if you have any questions about all the great perks that underdog has to offer, feel free to contact me on Twitter @poffsports. Nick, how are you doing this week, man? Oh, better of course, and young. I didn't ruin the Hammer Kid Hot streak, but there's water at PJ National. We mentioned it a lot on the action network pod last week, but happy to be back on Better Golf Pod. I guess I lost like 100 bucks in DFS last week, so the cold streak of two weeks continues, but I'll take that for an entertainment fee in hopes of getting back this week, but I did. I had some great fades. I just didn't have any shame, Lowry, that would help some minimally as well, would help a lot. I don't know why I got off him. It's such a low ownership, but it is what it is. I didn't love the course fit, but I'm really starting to just get into these, kind of like what we did with Canvave as well back. It's getting the longer hitters on the short course that I just seem to work out a lot on these cold downs, but for my action this week, I did take Ludwig at 23 to 1 on circa. I went with Roberto on Ben on over Minuili on draft Kings minus 110, Nikolay Huygard to win at 100 to 1. I believe that is gone on the legal market, maybe bet online. Still has like a 105 or a 110. Just keep an eye out there if you have access to that, and I think Rory wins this week's Spencer. I'm just going to go out and say it. I think this is his tournament to lose. I know my model has Scottie Scheffler as a favorite, but Rory is right there behind him. Both of those guys have damn near two times implied probability to win than any other player in my model. Pretty close to being on market, but waiting my odds to the market shifted Scottie Scheffler just ahead of Rory Macroy, but I would pick Rory number one, and then Adam Hadwin, top 20. I'm about MGM plus 180, reties do pay it full. Yeah, I mean, I think we've talked a lot about some of these recent tournaments this year where you're getting a lot of 100 to 1 winners, and I talked about this on action even when I went through the outright board. I'm not so sure that some of this, I guess the best way to say it is there's been a certain win equity that's been had from these 100 to 1 golfers that I still believe that there are a lot of the cream of the crop in these events. Like they're top 30 caliber players. It doesn't mean that we're necessarily getting the highest end returns of a Scottie Scheffler winning these events, but you know, Hadekki at the Genesis, Price was too large, Wyndham Clark at Pebble Beach, Price was too large. Like, there's a lot of those situations, and even if you look last week at Echo, he was a positive trajectory climber in my model for upside. Didn't get there in the outright market, but I mean, obviously it turned into a very good bet for anybody that placed it. But kind of what we talk about, you and I are never going to have overexposure to our outright cards. So there's always going to be players that end up missing our card for that reason. I agree with you with your assessment of like, to me, it's Scottie and Rory, we're above everybody else. And then the next two guys for me were Victor and Oberg. So I really wanted to try to find a way to fit at least one of those players on to my card. Now, if I go up into the route of Scottie specifically, which is what I did, I thought that was the only route that I could like legitimately go. I don't want extra exposure to that to this card. But you know, there are options where if you wanted to go different route, like a Havelin Oberg situation isn't off the table. I know you talked about going Rory and Oberg here, but it's going to be that sort of a week where I'm going to try to find that high-end profile. I think a course like Bay Hill really starts accentuating this major championship sort of feel where you have to be long and straight off the tee. You're going to need a golfer who can excel with that proximity outside of 200 yards, salvage a score, salvage par when the scoring gets tough. So anytime you have a course that punishes errant drives or approaches, to me, that's where you end up getting these high-end names who end up winning these tournaments. And that is the great separator. It's no longer one of these birdie-fest where somebody can get hot. It's also not one of these tournaments to where you don't have all the best names there. Like even if you look at what we've seen recently there, it goes back to the Hadekki and Windham Clark answer. Those are still two major championship winners that got drifted up in price. Like maybe that happens again for somebody, but I just don't see this being an event to where we're going to get some like random name who's going to win this contest. And we've been harping on that or I will say at least myself specifically, I've been harping on that over and over again. I think this is probably the first true course. The Genesis, a lot of similar returns there. I think the lack of water probably removes some of that, but this is a difficult course. If this plays in single digits under par, I would be shocked if we didn't get one of these high-end names winning it. And then if you want to hear any of my matchups, you can go listen to the action show. I talked about all those in depth and sure throughout the show, we can talk about some of those again here. Yeah, let's dive into the DFS board. I'm excited to, I don't know if I can get into hobbling as much as you are, but it's starting to scare me that I'm not very interested. But let's go 10k above. Can you fade Cantley? I know we're both going to be in on Scotty and Rory. Do you think Cantley, like to me, is there that big of a difference between Cantley, Ludwig 500 less? I mean, I don't know. He's priced accordingly, I guess maybe I would put him at like 97, 9800, but two to 300 off is not a big deal in my opinion. And the ship's not really there. I think the price is fair. I think the ownership is great. That's the most intriguing portion of his profile for me is that I see him about half the ownership of Scotty and Rory. And then when you compare him to, you know, Hovland and Oberg, you're going to probably get a five to eight percent decrease there. Now, the problem that I run into the mix with all of that is I kind of just think Hovland is a better play than him. I guess Hovland would be the one that's a little bit more difficult of which way you want to move across that. But I love Hovland this week. I think Hovland has the profile and it's the same answer that you could give about Oberg if we want to go even deeper with that. But Hovland's a golfer's long and straight off the tee always has that total driving acumen that you would want to see. But then you also get this upside for him on these courses that have thick rough inside of the top five of my model and all of those different ways of running it. I think this is a spot where the public and I mean, I don't know what ownership you see, Nick, I see about 18 percent right now. Yeah, 20 for me. So in the same range there, I would have assumed that with better form, he's probably pushing more into like that Scotty and Rory range here. I think he's very close to that mix. Like he's to me the closest name in projected win equity of anybody else. And then it kind of dips down lower into I think Can't Lay and Zander and Oberg and I think even Morikawa is intriguing this week from a DFS perspective. I really like Morikawa's upside of how he sets up for this course. So as of right now, I'm in on Scotty and Rory. I know I'm moving down into the next section. I'm in on Hovland, Oberg, Morikawa. That's probably going to be the five that I try to get aggressive with. Oh, no, Zander. I'm fine with Zander. Like I'm fine with Zander. I'm fine with why Victor over Zander. I feel like they both drive the ball extremely well. Does Hovland's form not worry you? His iron play has been not good this whole 2024 season. I know he's only played three events and he definitely came back to life at the Genesis. I don't know. You just something about him worries me. I don't know what it is, but maybe maybe just let it go and just play him. I mean, I made this argument on Linkson locks that 22 consecutive rounds of shooting power better. Now that doesn't necessarily equate in some of those trending data forms that are not exactly where you would want them to be for a Victor Hovland type of player. But I guess the biggest difference when I looked at Hovland versus Zander is just the ball striking for this course. There was extra upside. I still think here at 9800 for Zander. I don't know, better safety player than an upside market guy. Like to me, if you were to, if I'm, and I know your numbers were a little bit different, I know you had Zander with better projected win equity when you ran it. But like for me, it was number one Scotty, number two Rory, number three, Hovland, then there was a big drop off to get into that next mix of the Obergs, the Zanders, even the Moracawas there can't lay. So I just thought there was a 1A1B at the top and then kind of a situation with Hovland where he sat as that second tier name all by himself. God, it's okay. What are you thoughts in Jordy? I feel like he's going to have quite low ownership, love his long earned game, starting to drive the ball extremely well too. He just gain strokes off the tee like a madman, which definitely struggled with last year. I think, I think Jordan's fine to consider. He's, when you look historically of him at this venue, he has some of the best strokes gain returns that you can find of anybody. I do go to the same point, like I would rather play Oberg when directly comparing the two of them. But Spieth is not a fade candidate by any sense of the imagination. All right. Well, we need to fade some people up here. What about Sam Burns? I'm seeing 22% ownership. I know he's in grade form, but I think I'm out on Sam Burns. I am also out on Sam Burns. Don't have as much ownership for Max Homa, but I'm going to be out on Max Homa. I'm good on getting, getting rid of Max Homa. He's just not playing great golf right now. I'm also going to be out on Justin Thomas. If we're just trying to find names that are like a little bit easier for me to remove, I guess. And I think with Thomas, and it's really interesting, and we talked about this on links and locks a little bit. And I tend to think for all the obvious reasons, like this was Roberto's play. I think Roberto's on the right side of Thomas over English, but it's only minus 120. I think that's kind of an indication of where the market is on Thomas this week. It's a $7,300 golfer where I don't like the pricing. I think Thomas probably should have been a little bit bigger favorite than that. But this is still a golfer for me that was outside of the top 20 in a lot of different ways that I ran it in Thomas. So I'm fine ignoring him for DraftKings. And I would rather go to a Jordan Spieth if we're directly comparing there, which unfortunately, I think when you look at this board from Scotty down to Spieth, and I'll include more a call into this mix, even though he's a little bit lower, but like those are the best plays at the top. And then I think there is a drop off that occurs there. So you're going to have to remove a name or two more from that mix to actually make it work. But I think it does become a little bit more simple when you get rid of a 20% burns, you get rid of an ownership that we're seeing on HOMO when you get rid of Thomas who I have it at like 13 to 15%. So those become natural like pivot away points. All right, Will Zalatoris gaining a lot of steam after playing extremely well with the Genesis T2 and T13 like the at the farmers, which I think kind of grades similar to this, right? You want to be long relatively straight, especially on the south, of course. What are we doing with Will Z? Why do markets hate him so much? I don't know. He's massively hated across the board. And I don't agree with it. Like I talked a little bit about matchups that I had put out there. And I took Zalatoris against Minwoo Lee. That number moved about 25 points up to -135 afterwards. And then it got plummeted back down now into this, I think it's -110 both ways on that bet. He's today's a favorite over him. Everybody's a favorite over him. I don't know if there's one person that I've seen that Zalatoris is actually a favorite over that they put him against. What's the issue then? What is it? I like everything about him. I do too. I think it's one of those spots where I'm just going to trust my numbers here. And hopefully there's not sort of an injury concern that I'm not aware of if something has gone backwards. All right. Let's look at some others in terms of ownership. When am Clark going to be sub 10 percent? Hideki Matsuyama. Time came right around 5 percent. I think time came to my favorite play in the AK range in tournaments. Fitzpatrick is a favorite over everybody it seems like. And it's very fair price. Circa has them at 25 to 1 to win. I think your bookmaker might even be lower than that. I think bookmaker is 24 to 1. What the hell is so good about Matt Fitzpatrick besides course history? Obviously he lights this place up, never finished worse than 15 or 14. I think it's course history, the fast Bermuda, how he plays on long difficult courses historically. Those were all top 10 returns inside of my model. I think he's fairly priced on DraftKings. I thought he was one of the better values to consider. Like for me this is where it became difficult because when you look at ownership, Zallatoras, Fleetwood, Cameron Young, Fitzpatrick, those were my four favorite players in the $8,000 section. And that's where all the ownership is going to land. I think you can potentially look opposite and try to maybe fade adjacent day who has ownership down beneath. The gala has a little bit of ownership that I'm fine letting him be either. But you kind of talked about it like Tom Kim and names like that, even a Wyndham Clark who I'm not that high on Clark and Kim, but if they're going to be 5 percent or less. I mean they're more interesting based off of that answer. All right, I don't know what to do with Fitz. It is a great proximity bucket, especially this year. He is hitting the errands much better, but it's off the tee game compared to Will Zallatoras. Tommy Fleetwood, how more cow is not going to miss a fairway? Cameron Young, Wyndham Clark, like I'd rather have all those guys I feel like over Fitzpatrick, for the ownership that we're seeing on Fitzpatrick of course. Yeah, I mean I think that's a fair answer to be said. Yeah. I don't know. I just think that the course history is real here and there's a reason why he's producing. And anytime you throw him at these longer courses with difficult scoring, he does seem to put together results. And I mean it's not as if I thought I think so far this season he's been a little bit hit and miss. But where he's looked good, I thought he has looked pretty good and maybe hasn't necessarily gotten the full result of what he should have from it. Okay. I mean, yeah, cut it to Genesis. That's semi-comparable, right? Yeah. All right, moving on. Let's see. Jason Day, out. At that ownership. Yeah, at that ownership slightly. I mean, it's like, it's just too much. Thegs eight to 10% I'm seeing. Too much ownership. Thegs here out. Russell Henley, Sanjay and we're just out on, right? He's broken right now. I think he's broken. It's a very similar answer that I gave yesterday on a podcast where if you look at where Sanjay was inside of my model last year, which a lot different of a tournament mind you here. You have a golfer now who's 38th overall. He's even the upside numbers. I run things from a longer duration of time. You would expect that to be a good return for Sanjay and even still he's struggling to crack the top 30 anyway that I ran it. So I think that there's some problems there with him. He just feels broken right now. I'm going to be out on Russell Henley. I don't love the expected proximity numbers. This is a wedge player that while he does see some sort of an increase on quick Bermuda greens, I don't love where the proximity numbers are going to be from 150 plus. He's outside of the top 50 for me in that area. So I'm going to let him beat me. I think the more intriguing names would probably be the Clark Hadecki Tomkin if you're trying to find a way to get different. You do like Hadecki, right? I was going to ask you about him. I think Hadecki's fine. At the ownership and what you're getting for a person that he's a major championship winner and when he's put the pieces together in the past, this is a golfer that has massive upsides. So I wouldn't say that he's necessarily my favorite play but I think for the ownership that you're getting for where I have him right now, like I know you said Tom Kim was going to be or like or Wyndham Clark was going to be that. Like for me, it's probably Hadecki is the route I would want to go to get contrarian. I got Hadecki for 12%. I have him at a little bit below eight right now. So I mean, I guess there's a little bit of a difference there. All right. Seven case. Matthew Pavone. Let's see who I took out. I guarantee you I took out Brian Harmon. Yep, that makes sense. JT Posten. You can listen to you Spencer on the action network. No chance. I think any of us played JT Posten. Kortoners, Chris Kirk, Seawoo, Jake Knapp and on in that group that upper sevens. Are we going back to Jake Knapp? Is he just really, really good? I feel like I'll bet that he is not going to be that good as a debut time and double digit ownership. I'm fine with the idea of wanting to fade him for that reason on DraftKings. I do tend to lean under the mentality that he is actually this good. Really good. Yeah. I have no reason outside of ownership to dislike him. And to be honest, I don't even know if the ownership is that outrageous to take him out of the player pool completely. Okay. I didn't see that coming. It's just one of those things where the ball striking numbers are superb across the board. And we always talk about sharp movement on this show and not all of movement is sharp. There's a lot of public money that'll shift things and there's different ways around it. I think the net movement that we have seen early in the week, like he moved from 90 to 60 to one almost immediately on Monday in the outright market. And I think a lot of these matchups that you're looking at, like he's received a positive movement in most of these areas. So my model is in very much agreement with most of that. All right. I'll stick with now. Do you want to get bent on? I like him a ton. What are we doing to see? Well, in Chris Kurt, Chris Kurt getting a lot of ownership, Corey Connors. Like I'm usually a Corey Connors guy, but if he's 10% plus, I'm probably out. Yeah, Connors is the difficult one. I mean, I guess Seawoo is even a little like you got left. Seawoo is going to be sub five at least. I have him at 4.89. But I also think Seawoo is extremely volatile. Does he have upside? Well, he always has upside. I mean, a player that can win the a player's championship, you know, like that that's a legitimate upside golfer. CERN is Russ's massive favorite to him. That's that online. I don't like that. That's a problem. Sunjay is a favorite over Seawoo who's broken. Adam Heaven's even to him, which I love had one. So I'm talking about that enough on the show. I all right, go to well, I'll probably get the out on Seawoo, but if he's 4%, like there's got to be someone that's low on that's like a big time leverage play. I think I have that guy set in my head on who it is. But what are your thoughts real quick on Kirk and Connors? If you had to choose one or none, I'm not going to play Kirk. I know the course history looks great, but maybe it's too great. Yeah, three great finishes. Yeah, but I mean, like that's that's enough for why we're at like 10%ish or more ownership right now on him. If I'm directly comparing, I would rather play Connors than Kirk. So I guess naturally Kirk is a removal from the player pool there. I'm generally okay on Corey Connors. I think if you go a little bit lower, well, let's talk about this. The Jake Knapp Ben on Adam Scott range, like to me, all three of those players. I love all three. Yeah, so same here. And that's where, I mean, there's, I see 12% plus on all three right now for ownership. I don't know. I mean, is there one that you would be more inclined to remove from the player pool than the other? Are you just in on all three? I mean, Adam's kind of playing fantastic golf. I don't think I could take him out. Ben on, I guess I would take out if I had to, but he's playing great golf. He's getting it a fair way. So I think I would choose him. Yeah. Yeah. And I also think like as we work down this section here, you proximity grade is good for him. For who is that? Sorry. Ben on like he's going to be a little closer to the sub 200 range, according to how I kind of built this for his tee shots and how his hole set up. So he's kind of on the better side of the mid iron play. Yeah, I mean, he's been fantastic. His long iron game hasn't been fantastic, but I don't think he's going to hit that many. Yeah, he got a big upside in my model when looking at way to total driving. He was one of the big climbers there. I also think when you just look at proximity from 150 plus yards, and you take that total compared to what his baseline numbers are elsewhere, he improves in that area. So I don't know, I like all three of those names. And what I was going to say is as you work down this board, I do think there are players. And I'll let you talk about Hoigard a little bit. I think Jaeger kind of fits that bill also. There's names to me where you can find legitimate upside for the ownership and the price tag that you're paying in these spots. Yeah, Hoigard's going to be my guy. I think that is my, you know, sub 5% dude. I'm going to go to work with this week and go very heavy. I'm seeing 5% ownership currently. Are you seeing anything higher? I have 5.15. Okay. So yeah, I think that's probably my guy. I like Stephen Yeagerton too. I I'm not going to play kiddiyama and I'm probably not going to play Harris English. Kiddiyama, obviously, it's fantastic last year. I think he was someone that I was overweight on in this tournament. And when I look back at those texts, so that obviously helped. This was a very good tournament for the last year. But dude, he was number one in driving accuracy. I don't think that has ever happened. I don't know if he's ever finished top 10 in driving accuracy in a tournament ever. So yeah, whatever his swing is doing that week was just fantastic. He put his ass off to iron play was one of the best top, I guess a top three tournament for him in terms of iron play last year. So like everything just clicked at the same time with people are just going to, you know, 10% because he's young and he won last year or cheap. Anyone last year, I think I'm out on that on principle and the market hates him too. So my numbers in like him, I see the market in like him. I see the DFS public does like him. That is check, check, check for me to get him out. Yes. Same answer for me. Like the one difference with like a name like post in is he doesn't necessarily have the course history or the ownership that's tracking. But like those were two, I guess you can throw Brian Harmon into the mix. Like those were like the three most overpriced options for me when we were looking at specifically the betting market. I think there's a reason why numbers have moved the opposite way on pretty much every single one of those golfers and my model was in line with all of that movement. What do you think about Harris English? Great course history and there's no like pattern. He'll just come here and play. Yeah, I'm not going to probably play him just because I thought there was too much ownership. Like that is that ownership is being built in right now to this profile of what we're getting of the course history return. But I think of those names down beneath where there's popularity. I think he is a better play than kitty yama. I think he is a better play than probably Tom Hoege even like I guess like English has more upside there. So I think he's a better play than minimally if we drop down beneath like it's not enough to get him into my player pool. But I also don't think English is the worst chalk that's on the board. Sure. All right. Low sevens. Is there anybody you like outside of Nico and Yeager? Luc list. I think we are okay with her on the dice on Luc list. Boomer bus. Know what you're getting into with him. If the results go south, I mean, there's a pot potential for that always. But he's in my single entry right now and I don't know what to do with it. I like a melee on a grill if we dip down into this $6,000 range like I do think that the $6,000 section has a lot of a lot of things that you're going to have to avoid. Like there's landmines galore down here. There's probably very few names that I'm looking to try to play. Adam Shank would probably be one of them. I mean, we on a grill would be another. I like Rio. Shank's game to me is. I mean, this is a wild statement coming from you. I have tried to get him in my in our fantasy golf league a million times. And I mean, I get counter offers of like Oberg, but you're trying to get from me. So I don't know where this is coming from. Shank. I can maybe trade me. I don't know. Dude, this is a tough week. That's I mean, that's like, do you have thoughts on Lucas Glover? Maybe it's the course history here just way too bad. I'm I'm a lover. That's fair. Too long. Isn't it the ball very well that he I mean, he's going to hit every single fairway. But no, no go over the the best player in it. We're just like, like completely dart throwing down here. The best player 6200 or less inside of my model with shank. Would you like to guess who the second best player inside of my model was? Web Simpson. Web Simpson. I don't think Web has enough upside. I just want to throw him out on the show because I mean, Web has big balls to continue to put himself into these tournaments. What is he doing? I mean, the Adam Scott route. Like, I know everybody's complaining that Scott keeps putting himself into these. Adam Scott should have been qualified on his own. Like, it's unfortunate that he can't get in on his own numbers. Adam Scott's a legitimate golfer that deserves to be in this field as a top 20 player. What? I mean, I guess like, I mean, even with my numbers liking Webby's 53rd 59th for upside, there's just there's really not much there at the end of the day. Yeah, I don't I don't know who my leverage guy is other than Hoagard and even him. I don't think he's going to be that low owned. But like Bez, after a letdown last week at Chuck Bez. Seems crude well for me on these longer courses, which is surprising. I don't I don't hate him. I mean, I guess he kind of fits into that same range of like a Tom Hoege Harris English sort of return in my overall rank. And you're going to have less ownership with him than a Harris English. One of the. Yeah, I mean, I love the upside for him. All right, what are we doing with me now? I'm out. That's I'm going to take a stand here. And if Minwoo beats me, he beats me. But I'm not necessarily a believer that this price tag is all that off. The reason why it is off is because he has upside. He has par five scoring ability. He has weighted proximity numbers. All of that that comes into play. That makes it so this price is too cheap because if he pops, he pops in a big way. He's also been a golfer here historically where he's been terrible off the tee, averaging negative 4.5 shots in his two starts. My model has an outside of the top 50 even not counting that into the mix for expected total driving for this course. I think there's a legitimate reason why he has struggled here. I don't know if this course meets his eye. The results have been bad every single time. If he hits, congratulations to everybody who plays him at the ownership. I am I am not going to play a popular Minwoo Lee when my model doesn't necessarily see it's two answers. He's going to have to score on the par fives and he's going to have to put it together with the long iron proximity. And like I ran something Nick where I took the four par fives and I did this even last week to an extent and I've been doing this the last couple of weeks like find the scoreable holes and take those scoreable holes and figure out who are the golfers that are able to perform there and then can they hold it together elsewhere. And like are there any names that are popping up that you wouldn't be expecting? Stephen Yeager was a big climber for me in that area. Minwoo Lee is naturally a big climber in that area just because of the par five scoring that he put together. I guess the other name if we're just really trying to get gross down in this section and my model hates him in most other areas. Mackenzie Hughes graded in the top 25 for scoring on these easier holes. He absolutely fell apart on any of the other par fours or the par threes where he needs to salvage the score. But I'm out on him. I'm out. He's a dog to Nick Dunlap and just some lower. I think Dunlap was another substantial climber for me in that area. I kind of feel like he can't interfere with either though. Yeah but that's the problem Nick is we get down into the six thousand dollar range and it's just gross option after gross option. I like P-Rod. You do not? I take it with the silence. I don't know. I mean like I would rather move up and play Greo if I'm directly comparing the two. Well Greo is 6900 isn't he? Yeah I mean it's a 400 dollar increase but I'd still rather move up and like from me that 400 dollars I think you're getting a much safer floor and probably a better upside. Sep's track of four missed cuts no dice. I mean what ownership do you see? One. Maybe a one grade so bad. I mean at one percent you could convince me. I have him at three and a half percent right now. Well EVR he's quite popular at 6600. I feel like I wanted to fade him and Minwoo and just call it a day and maybe I just mix everybody. Yeah I'm probably I don't have a stand. Yeah I'm probably going to be out on Van Royan. Now the market seems to like him a little bit. Like that's at least a noteworthy return there but there's a very similar answer inside of my model that I would talk about with Minwoo to where Van Royan has the potential to be a little bit better with his long iron proximity. Maybe not the Minwoo but then his baseline projection and he also has the potential to score on these par five holes. So he gets this increase in those areas and then he just completely it's a it's a one million percent downturn anytime you look at the other holes for them. So if there's going to be popularity of ten percent plus on names like Van Royan and Minwoo Lee I'd rather just let them beat me because they have well they have potential to make a run up the board. They also have legitimate last place potential. Okay yeah. Oh there's got to be someone like last week at least I had echoed in the darts so semi overweight not you know 3x a field like I usually am on those guys. I mean maybe it's Cameron Davis if you're willing to ignore the course history and just shoot for the upside with him like he's he at least has intangibles to his game for why you would believe he could find success here. I do like Cameron Davis. Anyway for like Denny like someone that could just put the light so like that finds a different route of scoring other than just Bombing out just like just Denny's iron play so sketchy. Maybe I mean top 10 player in my model Denny is for strokes getting total in the long rough so it's kind of that more challenging area of the market where Denny can find success and if you can make some pots sure I mean he works himself up the leaderboard in that area and he's a good wind player. Oh but it's gross it's just it's bad down in this section. Yeah it's rough. All right well there you have it. I don't know if this helped anybody. I don't know why like usually we have at least a bold stance I could sit like Holy Guard I love Yeager I will play. Can I throw one more name out there please? You're not going to like it. It doesn't have to be 6k we just need someone that gets the job done. Well I don't know if I trusted this player to get the job done and it's somebody that it's not been it's not been going well but Adam Svensson 6400. I could play Adam Svensson so that's the whole thing like I love the bounce back when like he's longer he hit every fair way as long irons are good. Can't make a putt. I could play Adam Svensson. Are we out on Eric Cole? I was going to ask you about Eric Cole. I kind of want to play Eric Cole. I kind of want to play Eric Cole also. I don't know like if I pull up where I have him. Not bad. I don't have him bad either. He's he is technically a value and a pretty decent value with a lot of potential leverage with the ownership that I'm seeing and a similar answer for Keegan Bradley like Keegan and Eric Cole were those two. I did like Keegan. Yes. Sub 7500. I thought you had some a little bit of hidden upside I guess to the mix because nobody wants to play them this week. For sure. All right. Eric Cole. Why don't I plan our flag on Eric Cole? Yes. Kind of. I'll let me tell you who the best leverage play is on the board. It might be him. I see 4% ownership. I love the long arm play. I know he's not going to be a long hitter but he's not he's not a short porch guy anymore. He's hitting it all pretty well off the tee. So the best leverage plays on the board for me or Eric Cole. Number one. Cameron Davis. Number two. Tom Kim. Number three. Well that see who Kim. Number four. So I mean it's kind of I think he's volatile. I guess he does have to be there. Yeah. Yeah. I'm probably going to be out on Seawoo and just let him beat me. Keegan Bradley. Hideki Matsuyama. Windam Clark. I mean that's essentially where all the the leverages and that's what I think all of those names make sense to mix and match. I think you have to be under you have to be aware that any of those golfers that I just mentioned have the ability to completely implode but they're all I mean what's the highest ownership of that mix? Hideki I guess. Yeah. Hideki like 12. Yeah. And I mean that's like at the max of what Hideki probably is. So I mean even if I move to Hideki to 12. I mean obviously he becomes less of an ownership entry but he's still like a top 15 sort of a guy there. So yeah I don't know. I think that's an interesting sort of just names that we've rattled through there to get different. Eric Cole. I kind of want to work him into my single entry. Massive dog with Sanjay who is trash. Here's the thing I'll say though. Favorite of JT Posten. I know we hate him but I mean everybody should be a I should be a favorite over JT Posten. Yeah well maybe this course may be a little too long for your game. That's my two cents. I could play Eric Cole. Guys lighten it up. You know what you know what's wrong with my game. I don't make I don't play much golf but you know what's wrong with my game is I hit my 9 iron further than I hit my driver. Like that's not a good thing. No no that's well it's a different swing. So that's a problem for another day but I'm playing baseball out there and the ball's going nowhere. Yeah we'll work on that next offseason. All right Eric Cole can I play him in that single entry or is that too crazy? See I don't think it isn't what I was going to say about Eric Cole. Well forget the JT Posten answer there. Like him being an underdog to any of the other players that you've mentioned. That is the market return every week for him. The market never respects Eric Cole even when he was producing top 20 result after top 20 result markets hated him. We have been for the last season under this mentality that the market is waiting for a regression from Eric Cole and then we finally got it last week where he just imploded on himself and now now we've dropped them in price. He's an underdog to every single person. Nobody wants to play him on on DraftKings. I legitimately think Nick if Eric Cole last week goes out and comes in 17th place at the cognizant. I mean what is he price wise? He's probably 8k. I think he's probably more than that even like that's the low end of what he probably is. Like he's probably 8400. I kind of like all right well I'll talk to y'all fine about where the single entry goes. Are we stapling? Love Vic is a yeah pretty aggressive play. I think he's one of the better plays on the board. I know we were under a different mindset with Havelin but for me, Havelin and Oberg are the two plays in the $9,000 section that I want to attack as much as I can. Yeah I mean I like Jordy. I think a little bit more. I think he's fine too. I like Sander. I always like Sander though but yeah okay. Let's do this cash thing real quick. Let's see what we could do for that and again if anybody wants a chance to have we like that it's kind of a good run there too. All right so we're playing Minwoo that is a staple in cash so let's get that. That's a you thing Nick. Minwoo? He's a better cash game play than he is anything else and I get he opens up the world for you but it would be malpractice to not play mint cash. It's like the same argument that I've been telling people like when it comes to like dynasty drafts of not drafting quarterbacks that's mal practice to not do it at the top but I I don't know Nick. I'm not a Minwoo guy this week. We'll go with it. We will play Minwoo. We will play him. It's fine. I am just going to throw you don't like it. I love it. You don't like it. I mean that's I'm not going to play him in any because I think the thing is is while for cash and single entry and things of those nature there's no reason to have to get different. I understand that answer there but I also don't think that like I might end up being wrong on this and if if I'm wrong I'm wrong. I think Hoigard is a better play than Minwoo Lee. Forget like we'll just remove ownership from the equation for a second. Okay. And I'm not saying you should put Hoigard into cash either but like that's kind of where we're at right now. I mean Hoigard's a better player isn't he? Hoigard has the same distance returns. I mean I guess Minwoo has the better if you throw him from like I think people are looking at Minwoo and you see these these great returns from the very long distances and yeah I mean like there's upside to be had there but he's also not he's second in my model from 200 plus he's 60 second in my model from 175 to 200 so we're taking a very specific range of 200 plus and saying oh this is a good long iron player where yeah it increases his projection inside of my model. Like I guess the one answer I'll give to Minwoo of a positive note and you can take with this what you want Nick. He's 26th in my model for safety as a $6,600 golfer. Based off of that there's value on draft Kings. Correct and he's 45 to 1 and he's 45 to 1 and markets look at him that way. He's also when I ran this for upside 60th out of 69 players and he's 40 second overall still a value on draft Kings at the price and I think that's why he's at least playable in a cash game lineup where I'm not going to talk you out of it but I don't know this isn't to me where I'm even trying to fade ownership I'm just trying to fade a profile of a golfer that I think there's a legitimate chance there's a non-zero potential here that well yes he could come top five I also think he could come dead last. I would love that in the GP piece out of my life. We can fit Minwoo Lee in and just see what the lineup looks like it's going to open up the world for you. Yeah I'm putting him in just because the ownership it doesn't I don't think it matters what he does in cash because you're playing five on five at that point anyway Sam Burns probably locked in at 22 percent. Burns is a better cash game play than anything else I mean I'll agree with you on that. All right I don't want to play Sam Burns in cash but I think would you rather play Ludwig in cash than Burns? 100 percent. Okay fuck Burns and let's do that. All right so here we go we got Minwoo, Aberg, I think Feds we probably just have to play at the ownership course history checks every box. I'm fine with that. I am committed to Adam Hadwin as a safety play and the market fucking loves him so I like that too. So we have room for two guys 92 and a half left on salary so we can get a Scotty or Rory and what would that do if you got Rory it leaves us 7900 or we could just play middle upper tier so we could go to Victor we could go to Xander who I would like Fleetwood. I know Cameron Young is very popular but I do not trust Cameron Young in cash so I'm going to be out on that. I could play Fleetwood in cash no doubt. Fleetwood I think Fleetwood is just a good play in general. You want to go Fleetwood? If we play Fleetwood what does that leave us? 97 so Speeth or Burns or Homer or Morekawa we could leave money on the table. We don't have to play Fleetwood but I think he's like the definition of safe. Yeah I mean I would agree with like if we're looking at that upper $8,000 range I'm a little bit more bullish on Cam Young than you are but Fleetwood Young fits Patrick. I think all three of those players make a lot of sense to try to fit into cash game builds. Well if we do Cameron Young then we could play Xander which I would love that. I like that return better than than the other example just because I do think there is an upside difference between Xander and well I don't know I don't know if I want to say that actually like I prefer Xander but this is this is such a speed the course. So if Young, Xander or Fleetwood speed. We could I mean are you are you out on the idea of Morekawa? No not at all. I don't think he'll be way different in cash. I think Morekawa I mean where's Morekawa in the market? He's an underdog to Can't Lay Barely which is that's fine fine yeah he's an underdog to Victor Barely. He is a favorite on Pinnacle over Sam Burns. He is a massive he's a massive favorite against speed on DraftKings. Let's go Colin. To me Colin and that's kind of the reason why I'm out on Can't Lay even like when I was giving the answer to begin with. I think Can't Lay and Morekawa are very similar options this week. There's just a thousand dollars difference to where I can get a rebate on Colin. He works better as a GPP play I'm sure but I also think for cash they're safety in that profile. I don't worry about that. All right. Speeth of Burns then we could probably just play the Burns chalk if to stay on that. What do you like Speeth More? These matchups are all over the place. Bovada has Burns a favorite. Bed 365 has Jordan a favorite. What else do I find? What do you like? Let's finish it off. Speeth or as you guys can tell this is a fucking headache of a tournament. I love Morekawa now that you mentioned it. No cut. Turn it on. Speeth of Burns. I'm going to say Speeth. You check Burns's course history. It's okay. Speedballs. Do you like Speeth's current form? Yeah not bad. Hit in a bowl. Yeah he was he was performing at the Genesis also before that DQ like that kind of threw things off a little bit in that profile. I'm going to take the ownership of Burns and just do that for cash but all right I like that. All right so it's Minwoo, Aberg, Oberg whatever fits. Had one. Same Burns, Kyle Morekawa and with that I will get us out of here. Spencer what do you got? So you can find Nick on Twitter at Stickspicks. You can find me at Tia Sports. As always if you have any questions about the week from anything that you want to talk about we'll talk to you guys about DraftKings betting market any of that. Please feel free to reach out to us at one of those handles and as I said at the beginning use the code BGP to get a hundred dollar match bonus over on Underdog. The site is buzzing with all different sports that you can play weekly. You know you can enter I think do they still have um what what do their contests look like? Do they have any like individual season long contests for like or is it just for the entire year and we've already gone past that point now? No they got a couple. 2024 majors and then PGA returns a season. Yeah so there's a lot of different options you can consider there. You can you can do any of those things like there's a lot going on. There's the pick 'em contest that I discussed. I mean I think really at the end of the day Underdog is pushing very hard in the market to try to just continue to propel themselves up. It's going to be a great day when we have week long contests. I'm hoping that comes sooner than later Nick. We'll see on that front but once again thank you for everyone out there who shows us support and listens to the show weekly. We couldn't do this without you guys so until next week good luck here at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and we will see you guys back here again next Tuesday. What if you could have a career where the opportunities are as fast as our nation where it's not about mission statements but a shared mission? At US Customs and Border Protection we go beyond to protect more than borders from ship to shore, air to ground, cities to local communities, CBP agents and officers are keeping people safe. Join US Customs and Border Protection and go beyond for something far greater than yourself. Learn more at cbp.gov/careers. Without the ones like you who work tirelessly to keep things running everything would suddenly stop. Hospitals, factories, schools and power plants they all depend on you. No matter the weather, emergency or time of day you're the ones who get it done. 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