Deep Dive Books
"Thinking, Fast and Slow" by Daniel Kahneman
ever catch yourself like switching between brain speeds. One minute you're humming along to a song, the next you're trying to calculate a tip and it feels like you're wading through mud. - We've all been there. - Today's deep dive is all about how our brains really make decisions and trust me, it's way more interesting than it sounds. We're diving into Daniel Kahneman's thinking fast and slow. - Yeah, it's a fascinating look at the two systems of thinking. Kahneman says we all have, he calls him system one and system two and how they shapes every choice we make. - So system one, that's like our autopilot, right? It's instinct, snap, judgment, stuff we don't even realize we're doing. - Exactly, like when you're driving a familiar route, you're not consciously thinking about every little thing you're just doing it, system one at work. - Makes sense, but then there are those times you have to really slow down, think things through, weigh your options. - That's system two, the more deliberate analytical side. And what's really interesting is we often overestimate how much we actually use it. - We like to think we're being all logical and reasoned, but really it's our gut calling the shots a lot of the time. - It's true, and that's where those mental shortcuts, our brains love heuristics come in. - They make things easier, but they can also lead to some, well, interesting biases. - One of the big ones is the availability heuristic. It's why we might be scared of flying, even though it's statistically much safer than driving. Playing crashes are just so vivid and memorable, they feel more likely. - Or like when you try to remember if there are more words that start with K or have K as the third letter. - We can think of words that start with K way easier. - Right, so we assume there are more, even though statistically it's not true. Our brains equate easy recall with higher probability, but it doesn't always work out that way, does it? - And then there's the representativeness heuristic, where we ignore statistics and go with stereotypes or what feels familiar. Remember that example, Kahneman uses the Linda problem. You're told Linda is passionate about social justice, a deep thinker, that kind of thing. Do you think she's a bank teller or a feminist bank teller? - I can see where this is going. We'd all say feminist bank teller. - Right, because it fits the description. But statistically, it's way more likely she's just a bank teller. We ignore the base rate. - So we get so caught up in the story, we miss the bigger picture. - And this tendency to jump to conclusions based on limited information, Kahneman calls that W-Y-S-I-I-D, what you see is all there is. - So we form opinions, we make decisions, all based on a tiny sliver of the whole picture. First impressions are a perfect example. - If someone's dressed well, speaks eloquently, we automatically think, okay, they must be intelligent, trustworthy, all that. - We fill in the gaps without even realizing it, but if we're always taking these shortcuts, how do we know if we're making good decisions? - That's the million dollar question. Kahneman says self-awareness is key. We have to recognize when our biases are likely to be strongest. And that's when we need to engage that system to thinking, slow down, analyze. - Easier said than done, right? - It takes effort. - Yeah. - And we only have so much mental energy to go around. Kahneman calls it ego depletion. Like you've had a long day of making decisions by the evening you're reaching for the junk food, even though you know it's not the best choice. - Oh, I know that feeling. So it's like our willpower gets tired too. - Exactly, system two is exhausted. But we're always making choices big and small all day long. So how do we manage? - That's where those heuristics, those mental shortcuts come in handy. They're not all bad. We need them to navigate the world. Imagine having to analyze every single decision. We'd be paralyzed. - So it's this balance between our gut reactions and our more reasoned thinking. - It is. And the more aware we are of those systems, the better choices we can make. - And speaking of biases, Kahneman talks about this big, one loss aversion. - Oh yeah, loss aversion is huge. It shows how much our emotions play a role, even when we think we're being completely rational. It's not just logic is how our brains are wired. - We feel losing something way more strongly than gaining the same thing. - Exactly, the pain of losing say a hundred bucks. It hits us harder than the joy of finding a hundred bucks. - So we avoid potential losses, even if it means missing out on bigger gains. - Think about people who hold on to a losing stock, just so they don't have to take the loss. - Wow, it really is all about framing, isn't it? - It is, and understanding that can change how we approach risk, how we negotiate our salaries, everything. - So instead of just focusing on the upside, we need to think about what we might lose by not taking action. It's a totally different way of looking at things. - Exactly, a small shift in perspective can make all the difference. It really makes you realize, huh, how much our emotions color our choices, even when we think we're being like totally objective. And it's not just about inherent losses and gains either. It's the framing, like Kahneman talks about, how we present information, it can completely change how people decide. - You mean like, even if the options are actually the same? - Yeah, exactly, he gives that example, and imagine you've got a serious illness. Do you choose the treatment that has a 30% survival rate, or the one where 70% of patients don't make it? - Oh wow, okay, yeah, same treatment. Totally different way of saying it. - And it triggers completely different reactions. It's the framing effect. Doesn't change the options, but it plays on our emotions. Think about how that works with marketing, public health messages, all sorts of stuff. - We're not always those in controls, we think, are we? It's kind of wild how these subtle cues can really get to us. And speaking of how our minds work, there's that other concept Kahneman talks about the remembering self, versus the experiencing self. - Yeah, and that brings up a big question, which self should we listen to when we're making decisions about the future? - Right, because it's like we have these two different perspectives, the one that's living in the moment, experiencing everything, and then the one that looks back on it later, maybe with those ruse colored glasses. - And what's interesting is they don't always agree the remembering self. It gets to make a lot of decisions about our future, even though it's affected by things like duration neglect. - Duration neglect, no, what is that again? - Basically, it's how we judge an experience based on its most intense point, and how it ends. Instead of looking at the whole thing. Like, remember that experiment Kahneman talks about, people chose to repeat a more painful experience just 'cause it had a slightly better ending. - Yeah, I remember that. It's like we're hardwired to remember the grand finale, more than the rest of the show, even if the finale was just a little less terrible. - Yeah, exactly. The remembering self, it picks the memory over the actual experience. It's like a reminder that our memories, they can be subjective, you know? And it can really lead us to make choices that aren't in our best interests. - So then how do we reconcile those two selves? How do we make choices that both the experiencing self and the remembering self are going to be happy with? - That's the big question. Kahneman, he suggests that we should try to make choices that line up with the values of both selves. Like, we should enjoy the peak moments, but also pay attention to the overall experience. - So it's like choosing a vacation. Do you go for the relaxing beach trip, or do you do something more adventurous, like a mountain trick? - They're both enjoyable in different ways, but the remembering self, that might have a stronger preference, you know? - Totally. It's finding that balance between maximizing enjoyment right now and also thinking about how those experiences will become memories in the future, which actually leads us to another really important part of decision-making. How much can we trust expert intuition? - Right, because we rely on experts, right. We think their experience means they know better, but then Kahneman argues that even experts, they can be biased, especially when it comes to predictions. How's that even possible? - It's pretty wild, actually. He found that simple algorithms, they can actually outperform even the most experienced experts, especially in fields where there's a lot of uncertainty, like medicine or finance. - You're saying a formula can make a better prediction than someone who's dedicated their life to that field. - Sometimes, yeah. Because even experts, they're human. We're all susceptible to those same cognitive biases, which leads to overconfidence, inaccurate predictions, you name it. - So does that mean we should throw out expert opinions completely then, just like go with the algorithms every time? - Not necessarily. Kahneman says there's still a place for human judgment, especially in situations that need creative, flexible thinking. It's more about striking a balance, I'd say. Recognize the limitations of both. - It's like not humans versus machines, but knowing when each one really shines and when they might not, kind of how our own system one and system two thinking, they each have their strengths. - Exactly. We have to use the best of both worlds to make sense of things, to make decisions. And maybe most importantly, just remember that we all have these biases, experts included. - It's kind of humbling when you think about it. Even the most experienced people, they can still get tripped up by these mental shortcuts. - But just knowing that, being aware of it, that's a huge step towards making better choices. - So where do we even go from here? Like we can't just shut off our system one thinking, can we? - Right, it's not about turning into robots. It's more about, I think, recognizing the influence it has. Like knowing when it might lead us down the wrong path and then having the tools to engage that system two, thinking when we need to. - Right, so it's not about being hyper rational all the time. It's about finding that balance between trusting our gut and knowing when to maybe take a step back. - Exactly, intuition can be really useful. But sometimes, it's what leads to those biases we're talking about. That's when we need that system two. To slow down, analyze, make sure our gut's not leading us on a wild goose chase. - And Kahneman talks about some really practical stuff we can do, right? Like getting an outside perspective, getting some distance from the situation so we can see it more clearly. - Yeah, and paying attention to the base rates, those underlying probabilities, instead of getting caught up in stories or examples. - It's so easy to get swept up in a good story. - Totally. - But sometimes, we need that dose of cold, hard data to bring us back down to earth. - And it might mean challenging our own assumptions sometimes too. Those things we think we know for sure, but might actually be clouding our judgment. - Absolutely, we all have those blind spots. But looking for different perspectives, especially ones that challenge our own, that could be really powerful. It's like shining a light on those hidden corners of our minds. - This deep dive has been, I don't know, eye opening is the word that comes to mind. It's amazing how many things influence our thinking that we're just like totally unaware of. - Right, but like you said, becoming aware of it, that's the first step. - Totally. Well, I think that about wraps up our exploration of thinking fast and slow. Any final thoughts? - Yeah, I think Kahneman's point about how we remember experiences. It's pretty profound. Like, it's not just about what happens to us, but how we choose to remember it. So maybe starting today, we can all try to be a little more mindful of the everyday moments. - Yeah, create those experiences that our future selves will actually thank us for. - Exactly. 'Cause it's all about building a life, a collection of memories that we can look back on and feel good about. - I love that. Really makes you think. Well, that's it for this deep dive. We'll catch you next time.