The View (by: The Chemical Company)
Episode 113: The First Cut is the Biggest? - September 2024
“The View from Jamestown” Chemical Podcast Hosted by The Chemical Company Episode 113 | September 2024
Listen to Episode 113 of The View from Jamestown as the team reacts to the FED’s decision to lower rates by 0.5%. In other news, a pending port strike tentatively effective Oct 1 has shippers scrambling to understand timelines and impacts of shuttered ports, even for a matter of days.
- US Fed cuts rates by 50bps
- Pending East Coast port strike effective Oct 1?
- November election update, preview and comments
- Dicy, Urea and other seasonal products ramping up
Featuring: President Robb Roach VP Sales & Marketing AJ Petrarca Latin American Ops Manager Javier Fernandez Inside Sales Manager Nicole Iannuccillo Host: Marketing & Sales Specialist Ben Sawicki
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Find the TCC Team at the following upcoming events! EPCA – Berlin, Germany World Compounding Expo – Cleveland, OH APLA – Cartegena, Colombia
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Produced by: Kettlebottom Creative kettlebottomcreative.com/
- Broadcast on:
- 25 Sep 2024
- Audio Format:
- other
On this episode of The View from Jamestown, two big topics happening in the chemical industry these days. We're closely watching what's going to happen with the Fed's recent half point rate deduction. We're keeping a close eye on the impending ocean freight and port strikes, all that and more to come on The View from Jamestown. What's up everybody? Welcome to The View from Jamestown podcast edition. This is episode 113. This is the September 2024 edition and we're looking to have the full crew here from my right to left Latin American operations manager, Javier Fernandez, VPS sales and marketing agent, Pacharka, inside sales manager, Nicole. I'm a cello, formerly known as Nicole Greenberg, just so we're putting that out there and TCC president Rob Roach. Good morning. Good morning. Good morning. Good morning. If you're listening to the podcast and can't see Nicole's face, this is the same Nicole just for the record. Same Nicole. No, no one. No, yeah. No, no, you are new Nicole. So you know what? That's true. What's going on? Hey, good still. Pretty good. Pretty good. Summer's over. Hey, we're probably two more days, right? Yeah, two more days a second. Yeah, I guess. Chomping on the gun. Yeah, I know, I know. It feels like it with the rain outside today. Yeah, it feels weird with the rain. Yeah, but you know what? I put the heat on on my truck today. No, you did not. I did the heat in the seat. Oh, in the seat? Oh, yeah. Heat in the seat. Okay. Because it was it was chilly this morning. Yeah, it was really chilly. Yeah, I mean, at least the humidity died down though. It has. You could actually open your windows and yeah, yeah, it's nice. I don't mind this time here. It's good sleeping weather. Great. It's the best. We got Ryan making his debut behind the camera here. Yes. Podcast podcast booth, constructor extraordinaire. Now on the other side of the camera here. Yeah, he built this whole thing here. Yeah, pretty impressive. And he knows how to run a camera. That he does. And he loves being put in the spot. So enjoy this. Yeah, late September coming into Q4. I know busy travel time of year. People starting to look at contracts and all that good stuff. So a lot of stuff always flying around in September. Rob, what's your overview of how things are going these days? What's what's the latest? We're doing pretty good. You know, things are going pretty well. It's it's usually a pretty quiet time, August, September. But it's been pretty darn good. I have no complaints in terms of TCC and the business overall hearing from other people that it's extremely slow. But I think we're just lucky and not good. You know, we're just, well, we've been good. We've been hustling the last couple of years. We've done a tremendous number of shows. So we've been out there. You guys, all the sales team have been traveling a lot lately. And I think that makes a big difference in person always makes a big difference. We've got the EPCA coming up. We got the Apple coming up in November and Cartagena and Berlin for the EPCA. So and we've been we've been hustling. We've opened up new short tanks for products. We've brought on new products. We've got new partnerships. So for us, I don't have any complaints. Yeah, yeah, a lot of good conversations starting to come up things, you know, planning for next year, new things we can start working on, new products to try to offer that all are a result of, you know, all those travel and relationships and meeting people and can't have one without the other. This crew and the rest of the crew, everybody's been working hard. So I think we're getting, we're seeing the benefits of that. And hobby's here too. Oh, that's right. That's right. That's impressive. That'll be how fast. Harvey, what's the latest over there? I want to mention that. I think hobby is maturing, you know, he's getting more mature, you know. I do. I really do. I've been impressed with you, Harvey. Like, you know, like, yeah, I mean, he's lately he's been thinking more than that. It's taken long enough. Almost 40. How many years you've been doing this? 14. Yeah, well, you know, he was a young 14 years. But no, I'm an impressed hobby. Thank you. Appreciate it. Yeah. Must be having a child. No. That's how rumors get started. No, no, no, he's got a Joaquin. Yeah, no, I mean, he's got a child. Like another child. I'm like, huh, I'm like, huh, having a kid force you to grow up, whether you want to or not. Yeah, it does. It does. He force you. Yeah. That bullet train that wouldn't turn on my turn. You got arguably one of the most wall-behaved kids that I know. So it's, you know, makes your life a little easier. For now, for now. You're in trouble when it turns 17. But now it's, you know, for now. Let's see how it goes. How's things on your side of the table here, Harvey? What's the what's the way? Very good. As you said, a contract season starting. So that's important. So stay in front. RFQs are platforms like a rebar popular this time of year. I love those a lot. SAP makes the money. SAP makes everything so easy and so manageable. But it is what it is, you know, but things are good. Things are good. Sales are good. Yeah, I complain. You've been a popular guy recently with some supply issues and outages and things that, you know, it's funny is there'll be something that's when we'll talk about, I guess, in a little bit, but there'll be a product that becomes very short and everyone goes, okay, Harvey, go find it. It's like, well, if all these other companies can't find it. But you know, more often than not, you come out successful. Yeah. Yeah. He's an exceptional bird dog. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Well, wow. AJP, how are you? All good. All good. Yeah, busy. I feel like I'm doing a lot of busy work lately, you know, being contractors and like Harvey mentioned, I thought it was going to be a slow second half of the year travel wise, but it's shaping up to be kind of busy than I expected, you know, which is all good stuff. But yeah, it's all, you know, kind of mirror what you guys say. It's all all good, steady at the moment. Would you say about age it was dressed as this morning? Like he's, it's like Easter season. He was full of pastels, you know, like his Easter. I think he said the Easter bunny. Well, I'm not the Easter bunny, like Easter egg. Like he's eat, if you saw his pants, too, he's like pastel guy today, you know, like he looks like in color blanks, I could show up and I just get feedback that I had no idea about, you know, looks like you went to church on Easter, you know. See, these are all reasons if you're listening to the podcast and you start watching the podcast. He breaks up the dark colors here, though. We got a lot of dark going on today. Yeah, we're all dark. Yeah. You know, you guys always wear the same sorts of things. You got to mix it up. It's still summer, you know, I thought actually when I chose this this morning, Nicole, I looked at all the pattern stuff and I'm like, I always wear patterned, you know, later. Well, we just had the summer season too. So after Labor Day, you're not supposed to wear. Oh, don't even start with that. Come on. Okay, girl. So it felt foolish today. So I went with the dark color. So I think that Ben, Hov, and I and you are all on the same page. So I'm also a flannel Friday. Oh, well, I almost did. What's the rule you just started to say after Labor Day? What's the no whites? Oh, no whites. Okay. No whites after Labor Day. So this is okay. That's okay. Yes, that's okay. I mean, I will say. Yeah, but it's okay. Yeah, there are exceptions to every rule. So, you know. Well, I guess jumping in some actual work stuff. A couple of big things that we've been keeping an eye on here recently. Obviously, we, we moved the recording date here, especially because we had some, there's some big news coming out this week. Obviously, a lot of folks keeping an eye on what the, what the Fed was going to do. So obviously, today's Friday. So I announced it came out a couple of days ago that they were going to cut their target rate by half a percent. You know, up from there's, there was ideas that would be a quarter percent. Some people potentially starting to think it needed to be three quarters of a percent. But obviously, they came out with a half percent, you know, stock markets were largely flat immediately yesterday, which was Thursday. So a day after that, obviously a strong day for the stock market. So kind of to be expected, there's some strengthening the stock market. Obviously, we should see borrowing costs and mortgage rates start coming down. You know, a lot of folks talking about how it'll be a long-term effect to really see what'll happen as a result of these Fed cuts. But as a whole, should be relatively good news for, you know, business investment, for new housing starts, for things like that coming into, especially the new year, as we start thinking about plans and contracts and volumes and all that good stuff for next year. It, it should hopefully be good news for, you know, what we deal with. I don't know what your thoughts are on, on that cut as a whole, but besides the fact that you, you projected it or predicted it. I did predict it a long time ago. And I, the reason I predicted it was to buy votes. And I think that's true. Because not only did they drop the rate by a half a percent, the Fed, who's very coy, indicated he's going to continue. So that was probably more important than the half a percent drop. And, and the markets, you know, hit records yesterday. They're, they're just down a little bit today. So it's just a little bit of reaction. But, yeah, there was a speculation. Well, they only go to quarter point, because if they go a half point, I'll show the economies in worst shape than it is. Well, that didn't really play out. He, one and a half point, there was one governor that dissented, which never happens, which was kind of interesting. And, yeah, it was, it's, it's already, you know, you're seeing mortgage rates, they were down to 6% already. And they came back a little bit. What, what this is going to do is, well, more importantly, this is going to certainly reduce your credit card interest rates, your mortgage rates, all these certainly, it's going to have an impact on that. But the, there's this whole mental thing with there's going to be further cuts. And that's going to probably at some point lead to more mergers and acquisitions in our business and a lot more borrowing and people who are in tough shape right now because their costs to borrow are very high are going to get some relief. So, you know, it does have a very positive impact on business, but the Democrats are now saying they're going to raise taxes across the board, especially corporate taxes. So you have to consider that when you're voting in November, not just the fact that they raised the rates up to this, to slow the economy down, slow the economy down. And now they're dropping again. And the most important thing is a question that was asked of the Fed. The other day was, are we heading back towards, you know, zero again or super low or free money? And, and he said, that's a great question because, you know, that just means more debt for our country and more printing of money. And that's very dangerous because we don't really have a way to pay it all back. So it's, you know, it's interesting times. And our economy is doing very well. And it's not because he dropped it a half percent. It's because of fracking and energy independence and all these different things. So that's not something you could get Biden credit for, actually, you know, it's something that's happened over time. So anyway, that's, that's my take on what happened this week. Yeah, have you guys talked to folks since then about what their thoughts are, you know, partially because of what the Fed's saying, and then also partially just as we start thinking about contracts and volumes and things like that. I think people are trying to put some plans together for Q4 and for next year, if you guys had any kind of initial feedback from folks you're talking about that, whether it's just how businesses in general or if this is kind of impacting people's projections and stuff. I think the, you know, the general sentiment is positive, but, but as far as like hard numbers and what people are projecting for volumes for next year, those largely unchanged. You know, I think a lot of folks are thinking volumes are going to be flat to down a little bit for next year. For the most part, I don't, you know, that could change with, you know, with time, but, you know, a lot of it's basically kind of sentiment driven at the moment. Yeah. And I know you were traveling this week. What's the general feeling from folks on how, how businesses seems like there was some pretty positive, you know, feedback from folks who were talking to, and some of the notes you sent out? Yeah. So, I think there was a little bit of a mix. Like some folks were seeing business, you know, upticks in business through Q1, Q2, and kind of a decline Q3, Q4, just because coming into the end of the year. But I mean, the projection for next year is depending on what happens with the election. You know, people are kind of waiting to see what what pans out and how that's going to impact, you know, business and demand and, you know, all the above. Obviously you're getting asked that at all. I know it's always amazing how people outside the U.S. tend to follow some of the stuff that we do, you know. No, they're asking whether the election included things in a win. What, what, who's better for business, who's better for your pocket? It just just depends. No. It's a big topic. I mean, November, it's around the quarter. Does it does it seem like they people you talked to are wanting one candidate or the other? Is it just kind of getting your feeling of what you think? No, it's mixed. Yeah. Yeah, it makes mixed feelings. Yeah, I feel like a lot of the feedback was either way. It's not necessarily, it's not going to be great. Yeah. You like it there. It's, you know, just like the interest rate cut, I'm ready to make a prediction. Yeah. Yeah. Oh, okay. Yeah. You're here first. Yep. Yep. I'm going to make a prediction. It's going to be Trump. Okay. And is it going to be close? Yeah. Oh, yeah. It's going to be very, very close. It's going to be Trump. And the reason why I feel it's going to be Trump is because the Americans, Americans aren't stupid and they feel lied to about the health and abilities of Joe Biden. It was covered up. And it was made obvious in the debate with Trump. And then they just ushered Kamala in like she's a princess. Nobody. There was never a referendum to say that we want Kamala. And Kamala has given one interview. She, it was with CNN. It was a very boxed interview where they fed her the questions ahead of time. And she really didn't answer any. So as much as there's a tremendous amount of problems over Trump's head, we're familiar with Trump. Okay, we're not familiar. We don't know Kamala. And then there's the Democrats have now taken a tactic from the Republicans where they scare people about the border. They're scaring people about abortion, and abortion getting, you know, becoming illegal. They're stealing a play from the Republicans and baiting people and making them feel scared that a woman's right to choose is going to be taken away. And I think that that's going to be before I thought that was going to be and it is going to be a major thing. Women are going to vote for Kamala. The majority will because they are scared about what this means. But I think that the fact that she's nobody knows her, nobody knows what she's going to do. And they feel lied to vexed by the Democrats. I think it's going to be Trump. And that's not necessarily a reflection of how you're going to vote or company politics or whatever. No, no, no, no, no, not at all. That the most apolitical political answer of no, I agree with Nicole. I don't think either one's a good choice. You know, and I think that the last four years is, I think we're on the brink of a war war. I think the Middle East is on fire. We're in a war with Ukraine without shooting pulling the trigger ourselves. We're, you know, I think I don't want to say one way or another, the way that I'm going to vote. I just trying to analyze this and see who would be better for business. Of course, it'd be Trump because he's not going to raise the corporate tax. He's not going to raise, they say they're not, they also say they're not going to raise the taxes for only the rich. That's not true. It's simply not true. Everybody, our taxes are horrendous. And for people that don't, that may be watch our podcast, inflation isn't over. I go to the supermarket. It's $200 for two bags of groceries. I get my energy bill. It's $800. It used to be $80 back in the day. They have a huge influence on it. The Democrats have a huge influence on that. The food, they're not controlling that. They're not controlling Amazon from ruining our main streets with no retail. Like there hasn't been, as much as the economy looks great, that's because the biggest companies are getting bigger. They're not helping the general man. And again, maybe I'll vote with Democrat. Maybe I'll, well, Republican, I'm not saying that's how our businesses run, or how we're going to do it. But there's a lot of problems that people see, you know, and that's why I feel that that's my prediction. That's one of the toughest things coming into a November election cycle is just the what if, what may happen, trying to make a plan, based on not knowing which way it's going to go. So it would be interesting. Yeah. Well, you know, I probably wouldn't talk about it, but Harvey says that people are interested in AJ. We all say people are interested to see this perspective, especially outside of America, because people in America are like, I don't want to offend anybody for what I say about this. You know, when you go to Europe, they're going to ask you, they're going to ask us. Yes, they are going to ask us. They talk about politics a lot in Europe and Latin American Asia. They they talk about our politics. So, you know, I'll probably wrong, but I at least wanted to throw it out there. Like the interest rate thing that this is what I'm thinking, you know, it's a good problem to have because it's, you know, we live in arguably the most powerful country in the world and people won't keep an eye on it because it what happens here impacts all these other regions. So it's amazing when you see it from that perspective, because people are genuinely interested in it because it makes a makes a difference. It does. Well, in addition to the Fed cut, the other big thing we've kind of been talking about more and more here, the really last couple of days. Obviously, there's a pending east coast port worker strike. So I feel we've been getting emails and notifications and whatnot from all angles. Yeah, everybody is reaching out, which is great. So me make people inform what's going on, what could happen and what are the other what can happen after all this, this thing. Yeah, it's a big deal. So basically, it's the ILA, which is the International Longshoreman's Association represents 45,000 workers at 36 different ports from New York City all the way down through the Gulf and into Houston. So as of October 1st, they've basically said they're going to strike if a new labor deal is not met. So the decision date is basically September 30, so it would go into effect October 1st. Those ports represent 50% of US imports. There were kind of initial reports that a one day backup would take four to six days to then recover from. So if a strike does happen in the last even a week or two, it could go into 2025. So you're seeing all kinds of different reports on what may happen, what may not happen if the government will get involved. Some carriers are implement a between eight and fifteen hundred dollar per container surcharge to potentially combat some of the stuff that's just going to get passed along. There's some West Coast ports that they have some ability to take on excess volume, but that's not necessarily a great answer either. So yeah, it's a big deal that's going to happen within potentially a couple days of this podcast and clip coming out. So it'll be very interesting to see how things shake out. You got to assume that even though the government says they're not going to get involved, if it gets to that point, it's too big of a deal that potentially ignore. So I can't see personally any kind of strike lasting more than a few days if at all. But it'll be interesting to see how that shakes out and we're looking at alternatives. And it's obviously very difficult to just have a ship turn left and read about another point here. So you know, if it does happen, it's going to be a can be a big deal. I feel just having a candidate. I was going to say, I feel like they threaten to strike every time the contract's up for renewal. They threaten a strike and they get what they want and then they don't strike. It seems to be a recurring cycle. So that was the railroad, even Canada. Oh, I'm sorry. That was a Canadian railroad. Very similar situation. Yeah. And at the end of the day, in the 12th hour, the government got involved and forced them to go out to work. Right. So that's my point. I think that could happen, you know, and then to AJ's point, like they do this every time. But the surcharges are 800 to 1500. I've heard a size possibly 2500. That's insult to injury, you know, because right now logistics is, you know, tremendously costly. So this is an end, and there's a lot of delays and there's a lot of problems because of the red sea and, you know, even the Panama Canal and things like that. So this is just going to be, you know, a mess if it really gets unsolved. To your point, I mean, these 45,000 workers know the power they hold in their hands and how important, you know, they have a light to stand on to demand, whether it's hours or wages or whatever it is, you know, they know that they have a lot of power that they can, they can wield. And strength in numbers, though, obviously, to say the least. You don't get to work rerouting some ships or what do you think? We're gonna speed down rerouting ships. Look forward to your creative solutions to alleviate these issues, Havi. Now, hopefully, COVID-19 doesn't strike and things are business as usual. Yeah, something to keep a close eye on, though, because if it does, it could be a big backup. Yes. We're talking about ocean shipping rates and freight rates in general. I know we were talking about container rates the other day. Seems like things have come off a bit. Asia, the US, what are you guys seeing on rates these days? Yeah, the Asia to US lands have been coming off. It seems like they stabilized in the last month or so. I think, you know, 20 foot containers around, you know, 6,000 to 6,500 isos or what, like, eight. Yeah, seven to 8,000 maybe. It seems like it stabilized a little bit. But yeah, they were, you know, so many times they were climbing, climbing study, pretty steep, pretty steep climb. Yeah, so it seems like things are pretty flat right now where they're sitting. Obviously, you know, I had a note to talk about the election. I think we've kind of kind of covered a lot of that would be interesting to see where things shake out. Some of the, there's that political blog 538 that kind of accumulates what all the different publications are saying. And, you know, it seems like Kalama, Kalama. Kamala has as trended more positively in the last couple days, what those reports or polls actually mean is to be seen. So yeah, we'll see what happens. Yeah, polls are polls, you know, what I mean? And obviously, what I just said, it goes against that poll. But, you know, it's so to provide it. It's going to be very close. So, you know, the roll of the dice. Yeah, yeah, very much so. Any other general notes, thoughts, topics we haven't, we haven't covered? We should talk about the Chinese economy. Let's talk about it. Let's talk about it. Let's talk about it. Simon, because it's professor Fernandez. Let's talk about it. No, it's interesting because everyone is kind of blocking them, like isolating them. So, they're in trouble and they have to do something quick. But with all these tariffs that put in place and stuff like that, it's going to be tough for them to rebound. I think they're in a top position, the Chinese economy as a whole. Yeah, that was one of the things that stuck out to me from the compounders conference going back to last year when it was Austin in December. There was a guy that came up and was talking about the different economies. And everyone was a little slow and it was post-COVID and rates were growing up and blah, blah, blah. But then the one big differentiator was China that people were talking about where it's the China's not just hurting because everyone's a little slow post-COVID that, you know, there's significant over capacities. There's way too many plants being built like they're they're hurting in a big way. Now all this regulatory stuff and like you said, kind of people isolating them and, you know, you see all these tariffs from all these different regions coming on specifically because of what China's doing. So there's a lot more at play than just, oh yeah, we're a little slow post-COVID. That seems like what's going on there. Yeah, it's a political war. Yeah. Yeah, I think a hobby is right that, you know, they're going to have to become more dependent on their own internal demand because the, you know, the export economy is definitely getting headwinds. We've seen, you know, tariffs now in Europe. But if you think about it, how old are our tariffs now? They're eight years old, you know, now the bureaucracy. We should talk about the European economy. I mean, these guys took far too long to protect their own industries. We saw Ludwig Tov and BSF announced a shutdown of some major products they make there and probably more to come in terms of a shutdown there. Auto industry over there is in shambles hurtin', biofuels hurtin', you know, they, you know, so and we had guests recently come from Europe and they were shocked at how crowded our restaurants were on a Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday night. Our restaurants are crowded all the time and they said in their home country, it's empty and people are holding their money to save for food and things like that. So the impact of China has been global. I mean, it's been, it's, it's had a major impact on, you know, Europe, but also the Philippines and, you know, Vietnam and India and, you know, all these different places that, so I don't, I don't think the Chinese care that right now things are a little tough. You know, they're, they're always looking at the long term. They don't really care. They're going to continue with this path. And right now they're just going to focus inward. They're going to look at their own people to start picking up the man. They're going to push more construction. They're going to push, you know, incentives for people to buy electric cars and things like that in China. They're a leader of that. They're a leader of the green energy scam. So no, I think about that for a second. Not real, but I was just kidding. But solar panels are definitely great. But like, you know, here in Red Island, we're fighting offshore wind. You don't ruin an environment to, to, you know, we should also talk about the carbon thing, the over focus on carbon. I mean, this has been a big topic recently. Like people are environmentalists are so focused on carbon. They don't care that, you know, local environments are being destroyed, you know what I mean? For the sake of carbon, or decarbonization, they're giving people money to just bury carbon beneath the earth. I mean, like, is that really, you know, they're going to make carbon, but they're going to bury it. Oh, make it go away. Well, and maybe it won't have, you know, the impact on climate change or. So this actually came up with the vinyl formulas conference in Austin last year, too, that people are over focused on decarbonization. We should also talk about at some point about the sustainability thing, because that's become, you know, people, when you put rules to things, people find ways around it and manipulate it. And that's what we're seeing in sustainability now is being not even manipulated. It just ways to turn it into a profit source. I mean, if you can profit source, right? You put the title on things and it becomes a profit source. You've made a very good comment the other day that they keep moving, you know, the boundary of where the goalposts keep moving. And I was like, wow, you know, he's right. Like they just say, well, we're going to do, you know, decarbonization of this or that by 2030. No, we can't make that. So we're going to make it 2030. It just, it's becoming bullshit. Bingo, you know what I mean? And there's a lot of good happening, but then there's also a lot of people labeling things and doing things just because they can, you know, it costs us 8% more, but we can charge 40% more. And that's just 32% profit and whatnot. I mean, there's a decent amount of that happening. Well, you know, I've always said sustainability goes beyond decarbonization. It's treating your employees well. It's, you know, keeping older employees with the knowledge employed, you know, not firing them for profit. It's not, you know, it goes well beyond decarbonization. There's so much more to it. And, and, and we have a focus on sustainability at the chemical company, where we're looking to replace things that aren't necessarily good long term with things that are. And, and, and that's really important. And that's really what it should be about. And also treating our people well, making sure females and minorities get, you know, moved up and all these, all these things are part of sustainability is not just decarbonization. This feels like it's turning into an ad for the compounders conference, which it's not a little bit of a great conference. But I think it was the same place where there was a woman that was talking about sustainability. And she said exactly what you just said, where it's, you know, sustainability, part of it is recycling and making things from biomaterials. And that's certainly a part of it. But she had a great, if it was like a big circle and it had like the six different characteristics she called and that was one of them, but there was everything else. Like you said, it's got to be profitable and it's got to last for a while. And it's got to have being good to your people. Like there's all these other things at play versus, yeah, making things from bio based materials and improving recycling is important. But it's a part of the equation. Right. You know, it's not everything. The goal is to for humans to do well and suffer less, right? You know, that's the real goal. So there's so many components of that. Yeah. But yeah, that's obviously an important piece. Going back to the kind of initial China piece, it's going to be it's a big shift as kind of the world picks back up and demand picks back up and what not coming into maybe next year. You know, what pre COVID China was a big picture of maybe is not so much anymore. There's other media. Obviously, Latin America has been a very, you know, the region with the restoring, although, yeah, we're ranging of plants. Everything feels like we're doing with India now, you know, a lot more than China at one point. Like there's all these various regions that are going to going to benefit from some of this and, you know, come to their own. So absolutely. Well, we chatted about the logistics piece here a little bit, but we do have our friends at the logistics company to come on and chat more about what they're seeing, both of some of these port strikes and just kind of the logistics market in general. So we'll give it over to them. Good morning, Joe. Morning, Jamie. How you guys doing today? Good. Morning. Better than the Patriots Landover. Yeah. Yeah. I knew that was coming. Yeah. I knew that was coming. We got to go back to some of the first episodes we had you guys on, because I'm sure we give the bills plenty of abuse and what goes around comes around. So it's currently coming around. We almost threw for a hundred yards yesterday. You know, it's almost. How's, how's it going? It is, it is mid to late September. Yeah. Kind of come around the fall time of year, which is unfortunate. I was, how's things in the world logistics going on these days, Joe? It's busy still. Yeah. Thankfully, we were still very, very much cranking along. Had an into Q4 here. We're looking at the year very, very strong. It's been a great year. And I think speaking for TLC, it's been, it's been a really wonderful year. And we're hoping to end on a very high note. Yeah. And just to echo that, it has been a good year. I think things are still kind of maintaining their current pace out in the markets. We are seeing some, you know, new carriers that we're working with, we're, you know, expanding our footprint as much as we can, you know, trying to maintain competitiveness in, you know, what is for chemicals, at least, seems to be a tightening market a little bit when it comes to competition. So sure. Yeah. I think as kind of the year ends for a lot of the, the company's fiscal year end for, for most companies, that's kind of the, a little bit of a slowdown, especially with some of the European counterparts, they kind of quiet up. So it's a great time for, for us, from the logistics side to really take a deep dive into kind of our network and do a nice clean up and revamp where we can. And, you know, that's kind of what we're looking at right now. So yeah, probably a good time of year for, you know, customers and anyone really to, you know, take advantage of maybe a little bit of slowdown in production and take a look at how your supply chains at freight went for the year and, you know, reevaluate carriers and opportunities to look at intermodal with truck or whatnot, you know, good time of year to kind of evaluate all that. Yeah, I think every time we kind of hit these shows and conferences, it's transloading is the, the hot word. So we've done a wonderful job, Jamie and the team of kind of building that network up for ourselves, but it's also a good opportunity to look at some other ones too. Sure. People looking to get creative and fix some issues they're having, maybe. Improve those efficiencies. Yeah. Always thoughts of what it's all about. So it's all about. Well, one of the things going on, you know, we'll be very timely kind of as this episode, you know, as we talked today and as this episode comes out in the next couple of days is obviously a big pending East Coast strike, which has been in the news for months. It shouldn't be a surprise if you're paying any kind of close attention, but obviously it's certainly amplified, seems like the last week or so. So for anyone that may not have been following super closely, what's, what's happening and what's the dates and what's the latest on your guys' side? So basically, I think as we close in on, I think it's October 1st, I believe is the first date, basically looking at pending potential strikes at, I think, all the major ports along the East Coast and the Gulf do at the same time. So really, if you bring anything into the US from the Atlantic, so whether it's coming from Saudi Arabia, Europe, South America, anything like that, probably run into some issues if this goes through. You know, I do think it's one of those things that we see, seems like we talk about strikes this time of year, every year now, I think. But, you know, when we look at some of that, it comes into will it happen? Probably. Will it last more than a day or two? Hopefully not, but I doubt it just based on what's at stake for the entire country and everyone involved on that. Yeah, and I think you just look at historical trends, right? I mean, I think we talked about, you know, the potential rail strike and, you know, how that kind of went to the 11th hour and that didn't necessarily, you know, result in a catastrophic, you know, meltdown. So I think Biden's already said he's staying out of it. So I think he's leaving the power to be, again, historically speaking, I don't know that it will potentially result in an absolute shutdown. But, you know, at this point, the vessels have already shipped. So, again, to your point, if you've kind of been keeping your head underground, this may be news to you, but there may not be a whole lot that could be done at that point. But, from a TLC perspective, we've been kind of planning and consulting and advising that these are the other options that are available, you know, prior to almost a month ago. So, you know, it may just be a point of, again, a couple of days to potentially a week that you'd be looking at a shutdown. And at that point, you know, once the floodgates open, it'll be kind of that trickle-down effect of, you know, all the other ports are probably going to see some congestion for a little bit as well. Right. Yeah. And just to go back to that point, I mean, this has been something that's slowly been building up for, I think they first start talking about this in, like, January or something. Yeah. So, again, it's something that I think a lot of people have planned for, but, you know, there are containers on the water. This business keeps going. So, there are, you know, costs that might come in from some of those ocean lines. I think everyone's going to do their best to not try to inflate those any more than they need to be. But there's a lot of things that just get beholden to it at that point. Yeah, it's one of the situations where I think the, you know, the worker's union knows the power that they hold and, you know, have a heck of an upside on the negotiation. If it does go to a strike, even for a couple of days, you know, they certainly know they hold a significant amount of power here. So, it'd be interesting to see how it shakes out. And, yeah, something to keep a close eye on for the next couple of weeks, for sure. Absolutely. Absolutely. What else happened in the freight world in any exciting? You know, we talked briefly about, you know, diesel prices kind of trickling down, obviously coming into election season, which maybe isn't a surprise. But what else is going on in the world of freight and else to keep an eye on here for started Q4? Yeah, I think so. Diesel's been kind of downward for the past couple of weeks, better part of almost two months. Not as quickly as I think all of us would appreciate at the pumps. But, yeah, I think that's, again, reflective of the upcoming election. Container pricing, you know, inbound is still a little bit higher than I think a lot of people still expect. We've been looking at outbound containers. It's still very favorable from the export standpoint, especially at US outbound. So, plenty of opportunities there, especially if you have anything, for sure. Yeah, definitely exporting containers to Europe, South America, some of those locations. I mean, just a few things about the sheer volume that the US imports. I mean, it does kind of make sense that we can get that. And just right now, it does seem to be pretty favorable pricing. So, maybe if you're looking at domestic versus an export opportunity, it might be, might be one of those times where the export opportunity might be more favorable. Makes more sense. Hmm, interesting. Well, a lot to keep you busy, a lot to keep an eye on. Like I said, good time of year to kind of reevaluate and take a good look at your logistics, you know, avenues and partners and whatnot and reevaluate. And I was seeing that you guys are always around to consult and help however you can. So, always, a lot to keep an eye on. And yeah, we'll talk this time next month and see how these potential strikes have shaken out, see how history... Hopefully nothing to report. Exactly. Exactly. For the better, the whole US economy, it seems like. I saw some crazy statos. Like every one day of the strike, it would take four to six days to recover. So, like a two week strike could last months. Yeah, crazy. Same as the rail strikes we looked at. And I mean, Canada just went through rail strikes themselves too. So, it's... They're going around. Right. Yeah, absolutely. And again, Biden says he's not going to jump in, but, you know, if he gets to that couple days. Yeah. Hey. Right. Uncle Joe. Yeah. We'll appreciate it, guys. Good to chat. Thank you for the update and we'll talk to you soon. Thanks. Great. Thanks, Ben. All right. Moving on, price updates and trends. Not a whole lot exciting happening. You know, obviously, the stock market's certainly been helped a bit by some of the Fed formal announcements. You know, oil trended down and then as maybe trying to back up a couple of dollars sitting in the low 70s ranges, you know, stemming from that, you know, benzene's come off a bit, which has helped certain products. Propylene seems like it's been pretty flat. I was talking to a customer last week and we're talking, you know, pricing came up in general and she's like, yeah, I haven't seen a price letter in the last six months. You know, it's amazing. It's relatively steady. Things have been, you know, Q4. There may be some reasoning to see some decreases on things, whether it's because the oil coming off a bit, you know, we're seeing some lower prices on telephone, certain products. Steve sent him out this morning about actual prices in Asia coming off a bit. So it'd be interesting to see where things are headed for Q4, but anything else worth mentioning on the raw material front here these days? I think they call this range bound, you know, where range bound and and I think that the only real impact will be rationalization, at least on the chemicals, you know, and I think that's definitely happening. We're seeing already, but there's so much money that's poured into new chemical production in recent years because of fracking and new energy sources and things like that. So it's not going to be as quick as after '09. We saw a tremendous amount of old plant rationalization and that had a huge impact and we saw a long-term increase in prices because of that. And I think the reason why it hasn't been so quick is that there's been a lot of new addition to capacities and they're not going to shut those down so easily. Yeah, it seems like you've seen some some prices coming off a little bit with you coming in a dicey season, prices are coming off a bit, you know, dipping maybe trailing down a hair. Yeah, most of what we buy from China aside from anti-moitra oxide prices are coming down. That's a very large asterisk on that. Yeah, anti-moit is definitely a big outlier, but a lot of what we do from Asia prices are trending downwards. So a lot of raw materials in that region are down. Obviously, anti-moit has its own set of issues at the moment. That's really probably the tightest out of all the products that we handle at the moment. Should we talk about that? Because that's one that's put on Harvey's desk to magically make some things happen. Should we at least chat a little bit about what's happening there? I have a kind of a limited understanding, but my understanding that China has put an embargo on certain grades of anti-moan-y, which has caused tightness globally. And they're talking about further embargoes on different grades, the more widely used grades. And that's coupled with, I guess, the Russian ore is not making its way to China. So that's affecting supply everywhere. A lot of things at play, I think, at the moment that's causing some real, serious tightness in the market right now. And similar to other products, we do dicey and some as others, there's really only production in China. There's some production in Bolivia, but it's minor. Yeah, compared to China, it doesn't do anything. Yeah. And it was always relatively expensive, right? Four or five dollars, something like that. And then now we're, what, north of $10. Yeah, we've heard up to 12. Yeah, it's getting pretty pricey. And a lot of these, a lot of the applications goes into our UL applications, which you can't just switch overnight so that people are forced to continue to use use anti-moan-y for those applications. Yeah. The one that's going to continue to be ahead, I guess, seems like here for a little bit and be interested to see where that heads. Yeah. Yeah. It'll be interesting. I guess there are alternatives, and we do offer alternatives that have historically been more expensive than anti-moan-y, but not now. So there are things that can be swapped out and continue to have the UL approval, but they're at the range where anti-moan-y is today and maybe higher. So as things, I think it was like, was it 99.9 or 99.5% both? Okay, so 99.5% for a particular grade of anti-moan-y tracks that in 99.9% of another one needs to stay in China. So that doesn't leave a lot to export. That's really a small amount. And so this could be a major impact on a lot of people. Yeah. Yeah, it was just something that's widely used in the US and otherwise, and really only comes from China. So we'll do what happens with that one. But we might have alternatives, so give us a call. It's an hobby. What's up? What's up? Yeah, we're in a cold, you know, or age area. Me, whoever. Yeah, we'll talk about it. I don't know if the pricing hobby, any other... Oh, just taking a quick look on the closer look for the freights. That's, you know, BCC Sun is already here. Brisbane is almost here, so get a watch that. Yeah, probably more so room for improvement, you know, and tightening a pricing, whether it's imports or diesel prices have trailed off, so maybe some relief on some certain things and things like that. So good time to reevaluate there. You're like a macroeconomic professor today. I'm an economist. Yeah. Can we get that sound right there? Javier, the economist. That was my majoring. Oh, actually? Yeah, that's true. Yeah, I think we're finance. Finance and economy, yeah. Wow, Mr. World Ride, look at you. We're going to have a TCC's chief economist. AJ, the chemist, and then half of the economist. Yeah, that could be like a sub podcast. It's good. Oh my gosh. Oh, that one's going to watch out, Rogan. That's going to stick, the chemist and the economist. That one's going to stick. I hope you know that. There's certain names you come up with that. You just know we're going to hang around. Yeah, that's fine. And it's rare that Harvey's not the one giving those names, so sure. Anytime we can give Harvey a nickname, that's a good day. It's going to stick around. What else? Any else to wrap things up? Yeah, some traveling coming up. Yeah. Some traveling coming up in the next few weeks of months. Good. That's good. Big time here for it. Yeah. Yeah, I think so. I think so. You get a quick snapshot of what's going to happen in 2025. So we have the AFPM in March. See how the year starts and then those shows at the end of the year, how the 2020 price is shaped up. So yeah, I think it's good. Yeah, be good timing. Go to Berlin a couple weeks for the EPCA, which I'm looking forward to. Seasonal products starting to kick in. Methanol, urea for ice melt. Methanol for windshield wash fluid like all for any freeze, so. I see I'm sure it's been busy here with people starting to plan ahead and think about maybe springtime. Yeah, people are starting to plan now, you know, because that's as obvious that with the holiday season approaching, lead times could increase. So you know, we usually try to get procked down the water by mid to late October, you know, for Q1, the Q1 planting season. Yep. Yep. Good time to be planning ahead for that. Yeah, September, October was always a fun time of year. I think, you know, whether it's people looking at contracts or just starting to think about next year, you start talking to folks about, because companies start to obviously plan their production demand and what they're seeing for next year. So always a fun time of year. I think always a good time to be talking to people and good time to be listening to chemical industry podcasts, speaking with, with, you know, chemical industry economic experts. So good time of year to be thinking about next year. Well, I think that kind of wraps it up. Any final, final thoughts, questions, concerns, comments? Not for me. Coco? No, I think this was pretty cool. I've got so many names going on today. 3.0. I think I'm the only one without a nickname. I don't have a nickname. He probably have a nickname that I don't know about. Probably definitely has a nickname that I don't know about. It was it was Rocho Cinco for a while. There's a there's a there's that rap song called that Ocho Cinco. No, it's a Chate Ocho Cinco. No, no, but there is. There's a there's a rap song called Ocho Cinco. Yep. I don't know if I've heard that one. That could be that could be Rob's walk in walking music. Is that a bad Bonnie? It's not. No, it's not right. It's actually it's bad boy is the is the group here. You're a bad boy, Ben. You might want to wrap this up. I will play we'll play Ocho Cinco as the lead in music for the next episode. AJP, any final. Harvey just has to throw it in. I mean, AJP, any final words of advice here? No, it's all I got. All right, we'll appreciate you guys this time. Good to chat. It was a good episode. A lot of a lot of good stuff happening here. But as always, thank you for listening. If we haven't convinced you already to be watching the video version, highly recommend checking it out the the video version. If not, we appreciate you listening. However, you stream the view from Jamestown. So with that, we appreciate it. And we'll catch you in the next episode. Thank you. Thanks, Danny. The material contained on the podcast is provided by the chemical company solely for informational purposes. The information is not guaranteed to be correct to complete or update. The information in the podcast is intended solely as a general education aid. TCC is providing this podcast as a public service, but it is neither a legal interpretation nor a statement of TCC policy. Reference any specific product or entity does not constitute an endorsement or recommendation by TCC. The views expressed by guests on their own and their appearance on the program does not imply an endorsement of them or any entity they represent. Views and opinions expressed by TCC employees are those of the employees who do not necessarily reflect the view of TCC or any of its officials. All statements, comments and opinions presented are made in the context of robust dialogue and freedom of expression. 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