Episode 1152: Brice Paterik discusses what the Rangers' rotation will look like in 2025, how much Texas can ask of Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker, and what free agents could factor into the plans.
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Whether you know exactly what you want or like to take your time, buy your car the convenient way with Carvana. The Vandy Boys breakout late in the season has been great for the Rangers in their hopes for the future. But how much can Texas rely on those two first round picks next year? You are locked on Rangers. Your daily Texas Rangers podcast. Part of the locked on podcast network. Your team every day. You are locked onto the World Series Champion, Texas Rangers. I'm Bryce Patrick. A cripplingly addicted Texas Rangers fan covering this team for 11 seasons, including all six as the founder and host of this podcast. Thank you so much for making locked on Rangers your first lesson every single day. If you're not already, you can follow me on Twitter @brizepaderk. You can follow this show @lockedonrangers. Hit subscribe on your favorite podcasting platform and on YouTube, where the best way you can help grow this show is to comment nearly any single thing below. Before we get into what the Rangers rotation will look like next year, how much they can rely on the injury-prone pitchers that they've got on the payroll for next season, this episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Now, through September 22, all FanDuel customers can bet $5 and get a three-week free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV visit fanDuel.com/lockedon to get started. Rangers head into Chicago today for a three-game series, and on Wednesday, even though the listed starter is listed as TBD, we are almost certainly going to get Jack Lighter returning back to the big leagues for his fourth major league start, which I'm hoping and given his recent run of form and thinking it will be his best major league start just to get some of that early bad taste out of his mouth, but it's got me thinking about the long term, about next year and about those two guys and really about the Rangers rotation in general. The Rangers are going to be in a weird spot next year coming off, you know, they will be two years removed from a World Series Championship. They will be coming off of a season that feels almost a certainty that they're going to have a sub-500 record. Right now they are 11 games below 500 say you sweep the card, say you sweep the white socks, which you should do because you are not a terrible team. The white socks are a terrible team. So then you just an eight games away from 500 with a couple more. I think just actually will be one more before you hit the month of September. But they'll head into the season next year with some question marks, some big question marks and a little bit fewer question marks than we thought they would have heading into this year. Given the strides the Rangers have made with homegrown pitchers, most notably I'd say Cody Bradford. Yes, I know that Jack Leiter and Kumar Rocker have been the talk of the town over the last couple weeks and they should be. They've been fantastic. But there is expectations on those guys. There is a lot more hope riding on those guys. There is obviously a much, much higher ceiling with those two guys than Cody Bradford, but Bradford being just another name, a homegrown name, cheap, controllable pre-Arb guy who could give you quality starts, fit into your rotation that is a huge, huge breakthrough. Now, what are the Rangers going to need from their rotation next year? Well, they're going to need it to be at least average, hopefully above average. Hopefully they get the offense back from 2023, make it look a little bit more like itself with what will be a full off season because this team is not going to go on a month long playoff run like they did in 2023, so more time for rest, resetting, motivation of getting back to being the offensive team that they were when they won the championship. So hopefully there will be less pressure on the starting rotation next year than there was this year, which by the way, the starting rotation pretty much held up their end of the bargain. The back end of the bullpen pretty much held up their end of the bargain. And it is really most of the season's sinking is on the offense. So what does any team need from their rotation? Well, I wouldn't average it out for five innings per start, just conservatively five innings per start that is 810 innings from the starters. You look over the last couple of years, ideally you would have five guys in your rotation. They would all make all 32 or 33 starts, they'd all throw about 180 to 200 innings and everything would be amazing, but not everybody can be the Mariners. In terms of guys who have started more than one game for the Rangers this year, there has been 10 last year, there was nine. I went and looked just to double check with the Mariners that I wasn't just, you know, hyping them up unnecessarily, but they have six guys who have made more than one start this year, which is absolutely incredible. Their top four starters have made, I believe 25 starts at this point of the season are on pace to make basically all of their starts and all be pretty above average pitchers. The Rangers don't have that. They're working towards that. That would be the goal, but they don't have that right now. So what do they need from their starters? Well, they need some depth. They've got some depth guys. They need some top end guys. You need, when you head into the playoffs, three playoff caliber starters, and you need your guys to be mostly healthy. So let's look at the locks for next year's rotation. Obviously at the start at the top is Jacob Grom. Now how many innings could the Rangers bank on him next year? Well, obviously I would love for him to make all 33 starts and throw 220 innings and win a saw young and have a one and a half ERA and look like the best pitcher on the planet. But I'm also a little bit realistic, just a little bit realistic. So I'm hoping for this is still a hopeful projection of 140 innings from to Grom next year. I don't think that's unreasonable. I don't think that's unattainable. I'm hoping that he breaks past that, but I think that the days of him throwing 200 innings are probably done even if he is fully healthy for the full season. The Rangers will be a little gun shy, I would think. I mean, how can you not be over him his last two season, last three season, last basically since after the pandemic, he hasn't had a fully healthy season. And so how can you not be a little gun shy about wanting him to, if you are in contention for the playoffs, be ready for the playoffs because this guy is a game as a game one starter is absolutely the best pitcher on the freaking planet if he's on the mound. Now your other lock for your rotation next year is Tyler Malley, who is currently on the 15 day IL after being on the 60 day IL for most season after missing most of this season and most of last season with Tommy John surgery. He is dealing with some shoulder soreness, had his velocity way down in his last start. Technically, precautionary as the Rangers said, but we'll see how much we see him from now till the end of the season. He is your other lock in this rotation, but you go back and you look at the history of Malley and he is not a guy with the history of being out there for 150, 180, 200 innings. He's only had one season with more than 150 innings. That was 180 back in 2021 and 2022 when he split time between Cincinnati and Minnesota, he pitched 120 and 2/3 innings. Last year he pitched 25 and 2/3 innings before having Tommy John surgery. He'd had 129 and 2/3 innings as his career high back in 2019, mostly healthy during the pandemic season, but that's only a 47 inning workload and then before that, basically his rookie year was 112 innings. I'm counting on hoping for maybe 120 innings out of Malley next year, which is not a whole lot and it gives me pause. I hope that he's healthy for 150 innings, banking on him going over 150 innings as opposed to Jacob de Grom feels like a safer bet since Malley will be 30 next year, still four years younger than Jacob de Grom right now, but still not a guy with a big long track record of staying super healthy, being super durable and being that guy who goes out there every fifth day and takes the ball and goes 5, 6, 7 innings. So the Rangers will need some help from elsewhere in the rotation, but where they're sitting right now, they've got some help, both at the big league level right now and help on the way. But how much of the Rangers get a bank on that and can they be counted on to spend anything in free agency? Talk about that and the young Vandy boys right after this word from our sponsors. This show is brought to you by FanDul. You've heard us talk a lot about FanDul. America's number one sports book. Well, we have something a little different for you. Now through September 22, all FanDul customers can bet $5, get a three-week free trial of NFL Sunday Ticket from YouTube and YouTube TV. Then with the YouTube TV base plan, you'll be able to watch every regular season after noon, Sunday afternoon after out of market game, all you'll need is a Google account and a current form of payment and you can cancel anytime if you want to look at some of the odds that FanDul's got for winning the AOS. Well, right now, the Rangers at plus 13,000, the Astros are the favorite at minus 650, but those Mariners are stinking back in at plus 440, or if you want to bet on the World Series winners right now, Dodgers are at plus 310, Phillies plus 470, Yankees plus 550. So go check it out, visit fandul.com/lockedon to download America's number one sports book. Shout out to the every day of just making lockdown rangers your first listen every single day. Tonight, the Rangers take on the White Sox, 710 PM Central Time first pitch. It's going to be a couple of great lefties, Andrew Heaney versus Garrett Cliche. You can catch every pitch on Sirius XM. Just download the S, X, X, M app and search Rangers. Now, you may have noticed one key name missing from my locks. It was a guy who I think will probably start quite a few game for the Rangers next year, though I don't have him quite in the same echelon as Jacob de Grom or even Tyler Malley, and that is John Gray. Now for John Gray, I think ideally in the postseason and ideally on a very, very competitive team with a very good rotation, which I'm not sure the Rangers will have next year hoping they will have, but not quite sure they will have next year. I don't love Gray as your number three starter, but heading into next year, assuming the Rangers don't sign anybody, which I don't know is a likelihood, but definitely a possibility. Gray will be probably your number three out of camp, but he's not a guy with a long history of staying super healthy pitching 200 innings either. Not that really anybody on this roster is. His career high in innings was 172 back in 2018. He did pitch 157 and the third innings last year was healthy for basically the entire season until that fateful end of the season when he went on the IL and wasn't available to come back until the postseason until late in the postseason where he was a dynamite dynamite reliever, which is kind of where I'm hoping he will be in the Rangers organization if they make the playoffs in 2025, which I'm feeling pretty decent about them doing. So I'm penciling him for about 130 innings. Cody Bradford, the biggest breakthrough developmentally for the Rangers this year has been Cody Bradford. I don't think there's a question about that of guys who you didn't have huge expectations for but made big, big strides. Cody Bradford is a legit middle of rotation pitcher as he's pitching right now, probably more likely a number four or a number five, but a good number four or a number five and a homegrown one, which again, the Rangers have not done in freaking forever. That is a developmental win. That is a huge, huge win. Now how healthy can he stay next year? He dealt with some injury issues. This year he dealt with some injury issues in college. The injuries really set him back quite a bit this year. I think he may end up with 60, 70 innings, hopefully closer to 70 innings by the time the year is done. But next year, in terms of how many innings I'm penciling him in in the starting rotation, I'd say 120 is about a fair bet for how many starts he's going to make, how healthy he is going to be, hoping it's more, thinking it definitely can be more, but you go back and you look at his career through the minor leagues through even college. The most innings he's pitched in a single season was back in 2022. That is when he spent the whole year with Frisco. He had 26 starts that year, 118 and 2/3 innings. So around 120 is about where he's been. I think he could go up all the way to 150. But again, depending on the breakouts breakthroughs, how much you're getting from those youngsters in Leiter and Rocker, that will kind of determine a bit of where his innings are going. If the Rangers spend in free agency, that will kind of alter how many innings he's going to pitch and how healthy Malley and de Grom and everybody else in this rotation are. That will also kind of factor in. So I'm penciling him in for about 120 innings. And then of course you got the workhorse, Dane Dunning, not spectacular this year, kind of really a down year for him, I mean a 5 ERA last year. He was the Rangers pitching MVP, 172 and 2/3 innings. The Rangers do not win the World Series without Dane Dunning's contributions during the regular season. Year before his 153 innings were massive. But ideally, Dunning is kind of your long man. You're penciled in, you know, hopping in there for a spot start every once in a while. That's kind of the ideal spot in the rotation for him. Also he's had some injury issues this year, a couple of shoulder injuries that have landed him on the IL for two separate stints. So I'm not entirely sure about how many innings the Rangers are penciling him in for next year. I think on the, you know, more aggressive side, 140, maybe 100 innings is a little bit more likely. So I said 140 for this exercise. So that would leave us with 160 innings left for the Rangers. This is not penciling in any free agents, anything from the Vandyboys just yet, you have 160 innings to fill. Now let's look at those Vandyboys. Let's start with Jack Lider. Now of the two, Lider has a little bit more, he has well, you know, three starts more of MLB experience, he has a little bit more minor league experience than Kumar Rocker. He has a much healthier track record of durability than, than Rocker does. But again, his floor is lower, his ceiling is lower, but I think the Rangers are going to need him as a starter and penciling in 120 innings from Lider next year in the big leagues. And that's out of the question. I don't think it's out of the question that he makes the rotation out of camp. In terms of guys who I feel good about making the rotation out of camp, I think I might even feel better about Rocker just straight up making out of camp because what he's doing is incredible. But for Lider, the Rangers are going to need him hopefully as a starter. But I think we're going to find out a lot about Jack over the next couple of weeks through the end of the season, what he looks like in these big league starts coming back up. If these changes are real and sustainable as a starting pitcher, or if he's just going to be, I say just, if he is going to be a nasty, nasty back end reliever, because he is back to getting that floor of an elite, elite back end reliever. Not just a pretty good, you know, six seventh inning guy that you can pencil in in a couple of situations, no, that is the stuff the floor, I think at this point is an elite closer, which isn't what the Rangers want, which isn't what Jack wants. But the fact that that's the floor getting back to that, that is a big, big step for Jack. And in terms of the Rangers banking on him to, you know, make, you know, 30 starts next year and give them 150 to 180 innings, they're not doing that. They're not asking that of Jack hoping unless there's some kind of injury, but Anza that befalls the Rangers starting pitchers, which we've never seen that before. But at this point, where we are looking forward, even being on the most pessimistic side on the free agent market, we'll get to that a little bit later in the third segment of what the Rangers could do in free agency, what I hope they do, and what I think they might do. But banking on 120 innings from Jack Leiter, I think that's a safe bet for the Rangers. And if it, if he comes back up, if he starts to regress, I think the Rangers, no matter what happens in however many starts he gets back up at the major league level from now to the end of the season, I think they're definitely going to keep trying him as a starter next year. If he starts to regress back again in Triple A next season, if he doesn't make the roster out of camp, he starts to regress and go back to his old bat habits and ends up looking more like a reliever because the command just isn't quite there to be a starter, then you're not going to get starting innings from Jack next year. But even if that's the case, the Rangers have another youngster, Kumar Rocker, who has the ceiling of an ace, always did, and is now looking like he is closer than ever to realizing that at the Big League level, but there's a lot of injury concerns with Kumar Rocker and how many innings can the Rangers bank on him next year, even if he is at his best and dominating at the Big League level. We'll look at that and some free agent option for the Rangers on the starting pitchy side right after this trip from our sponsors. This show is brought to you by Supply House. Get supplies for the site that's made for the skilled trades, supplyhouse.com. SupplyHouse.com is the reliable way to order plumbing, HVAC, and electrical products online. Their easy to use website is packed with helpful resources and the latest product info to help you get the job done right. 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I think he could just go ahead and skip his first triple A start which is going to be on Wednesday and just straight up go up to the big leagues right now. Because the stuff is just that good. It is absolutely sensational. It is top of the rotation stuff because he not only has elite, elite, fastball velocity, shape on that fastball, the nastiest breaking ball I've ever seen from a Rangers prospect, the change-up is really darn good. We haven't even seen the cutter because he hasn't needed it at all against double A hitters or against, well, Arizona Complex League hitters, I'm sure he didn't need it against them. But the stuff is that good and he also commands it incredibly well. Not only has the great stuff but the command, those two things when they come together, that is what makes elite Game 1 starting, caliber starting pitchers at the major league level. That's what makes Jacob de Grom so gosh darn good is because he has got the elite stuff and the impeccable command. Those two together is a deadly, deadly combination but with Kamara Rocker, the questions are no longer what the heck is going on with that delivery. Can he get anywhere back to the hopes of number one starting pitcher type of ceiling or what the heck is going on with them that were there the first year, first couple of Arizona fall league starts less so in Hickory, completely gone now with what he's done. In Frisco, the question now becomes how healthy can you keep Kamara Rocker and even if he is fully healthy, how much do you just let it eat. Because since his last year at Vanderbilt, he has pitched a total, I believe if my math is correct, 80, not even 90 innings so far. This year he's thrown 26 and two thirds between seven innings of rehab in the Arizona Complex League, 19 and two thirds innings in a double A Frisco and I think a decent barometer for this year of him, you know, his end of your total is probably around 50 so that's what makes me think he doesn't come up to the big leagues this year along with it necessitating a 40 man roster clearing spot not that they couldn't do that or wouldn't do that or won't do that anyway in the off season, but I think that that is less likely. I'm hoping it happens. I would love to see Kamara Rocker dominating big league hitters as soon as possible, but I think they might temper the expectations on that and for next year, I think he's absolutely going to be in the major leagues at some point next year, whether he, you know, makes the rotation out of camp because he's just so gosh darn good, whether he is close and starts the year in Frisco and comes up by, I don't know, Memorial Day or maybe even before then. Great. Would love to see that. But in terms of his overall health for next year, I mean the most innings he will have pitched in a full season will be this 50 innings since throwing 122 his final year of Annabelle. So how are the Rangers going to limit his innings? I would assume it would be somewhere around the 80 to 120 inning mark. For next year, maybe it's around 100. You set a lot of compromise there. I don't know exactly what it will look like. I don't think that they're going to follow the Steven Strasburg method of just keep pitching until you reach that innings limit and then we shut you down for the whole year. I don't think that's how they're going to do it. I think they break it up in little stints of two, three weeks being optioned and then put on the development list just for some rest and resetting his arm kind of like they've done with Lighter a couple of times this year. And obviously that work wonders because that's happened with Lighter right before he came back up in his last two starts and dominated and got called back up to the big leagues. But I think hoping for anywhere between 80 to 120 innings from Rocker next year, even if he's fully healthy at the big league level is probably about where you get yourself. Now let's look a little bit at free agency. I think the Rangers most likely move in free agency would be to bring back Nathan Eivaldi. If he gets, I believe it's 30, 23 more innings over his next till the end of the season, he will have that $20 million player option. But according to spot track, his value on the open market would be two years, $48 million. I think the Rangers have the budget to do that. I think he would like to come back, but you get to that point and that age and we'll see what the Rangers actually end up doing. They'll have somewhere around 60 to 70, maybe even as much as $90 million in room before they hit the CBT. So even if Ray Davis doesn't want to hit that CBT, he can push up against it and still spend a decent chunk of change this off season. So I would love to see Nathan Eivaldi back. Andrew Heaney, he's valued on the market at two years, $22 million. He's been very valuable for the Rangers this year. I wouldn't really love to see him starting a playoff game. So I wouldn't want to spend any more than $11 million a year, but he's been very valuable for the Rangers. Very durable, much more so than they expected, so I would not be surprised to see him back. As for Scherzer, I have no idea. He's valued on spot track, his market value is one year, $14 million. I don't see the Rangers doing that. I don't really see them spending at the top of the market, even though I would very much like them too, so that you have a playoff rotation of DeGrom and either Max Freed or Corbin Burns. Max Freed's contract is projected to be six years, $128 million. He's had some injury concerns, some durability concerns, so I would be a little wary on that. Burns hasn't had those injury and durability concerns. He's been fantastic. Might win another Cy Young this year, six years, $183 million, that's 30 million a year. I think the Rangers might get outbid for that by Baltimore with new ownership and a lot of room to spend and him already having spent a year in Baltimore. I think they will be very motivated to bring him back, but a guy in kind of the bargain bin, not to, you know, pejoratively crown him that, but a guy who I think the Rangers could get very good value in, something that like they did with Tyler Mallory, this past off season, getting a guy who is, you know, coming off of an injury, or several injuries, but Walker Bueller listed it one year, $3.7 million in terms of contract value. That feels like an absolute bargain. If the Rangers could go up and do that, I know there are a lot of injury red flags. There is a very decent chance that he does not throw more than 20, 30 innings for the Rangers next year, but the Rangers have a very good training staff, despite all of these injuries this year, and a lot of injuries last year, they have a very good training staff that, I mean, go look at how healthy Corey Segar has been this year, as opposed to his time with the Dodgers, that is a big, big mark in the Rangers favor. Also Marcus Simman being able to play this many games in a row, also a credit to Marcus Simman and the training staff helping keep him healthy. I think that could be something the Rangers might at least look at, but you got to have at least three playoff starters, and if the Rangers rotation heads into October, you're hoping that Jacob Graham's healthy. If your number two starter is Nathan Eivaldi coming back, that's a great spot to feel. And if your number three starter is maybe come our rocker, you feel really good about your hopes in the playoffs, especially if your rotation is fully healthy, which never is the end of the year. But if the Rangers bring back Eivaldi as their only big free agent signing, maybe say they also bring back Robertson and Yates, which I really hope they do, and I think they should. And even though I don't know if Yates is going to have a sub one and a half ERA next year, I think he's going to be pretty darn good again, because he just looks like very much the guy that was one of, if not the best, really written on the baseball back in 2019. But even if that's all they do, you have a playoff rotation, you head into it, you have a healthy Jacob Graham at the head of it for game one, you have Nate Eivaldi game two, and then game three, say you manage those innings correctly, and you have come our rocker as your game three starter. Even if he is a rookie, I feel really, really good about that rotation heading up against anybody, especially if you had that back end of the pen solidified. If you have, you know, Jack Lider at that point would be in the back of the pen, he would not be starting playoff games. And then you also would have John Gray in the back end of the pen, given whoever else is there, even if it's just those two as your two best back end believers, I feel pretty solid about that. Then if you bring back a healthy spores, who hopefully would be healthy at that point, we'll see about his health next year, he has been really hit and missed with the health the last couple of years. If you have a Robertson, a Yates, and then, you know, your four leverage leavers are those guys plus John Gray, plus Jack Lider, that is a team, depending on where the offense bounces back next year, that could look to do the Bochi thing and go one year when a world series, one year miss a playoffs, one year when a world series, hopefully they could try that whole three out of four thing because I think a dynasty sounds really darn nice. But either way, the shape of the reindeer's rotation next year, it's looking to be in a decent spot, even if you are on the pessimistic side of Ray Davis not spending any money in free agency. The strides that Jack Lider and Kumar Rucker and Cody Bradford have made has got to make you feel much, much better about where this rotation will be next year than at least I definitely was at the start of this season. That's going to do it for today's show, thank you all so much for listening and subscribing and until next time. 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