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I feel, you know, as if we're kind of truly in the swing of the season and everything is sort of kind of coming together in terms of like certain teams are crystallizing, like what we know they are going to be and, you know, we're kind of reacting to more larger samples now, being able to see, I mean, great example is, you know, just today. I went back, you know, we talked about Marvin Harrison Jr. after week one and just like the film, What Didn't Look Good, you know, Marvin Harrison, he didn't seem like he was the primary read on a lot of plays. No. You go back and chart the two games after that and it's like, oh man, he looks great on film. He's separating on some difficult coverage looks against the lions, especially in week three. And also, what's been really cool to see is I think they're not all the way dialed into each other just yet. There's been a few like contested catch misses and a couple of like, all right, the pass is just a little bit off from Kyler Murray, but you can also tell like pre snap if Kyler Murray thinks there's an advantageous coverage look to Marvin Harrison, he's like, I'm going, I'm like, forget what the read is, I'm going to Marvin Harrison, which puts that like out of context quote that, you know, got aggregated after Harrison's four yard game in week one about Oh, it's not my job to get the target or whatever to, but Murray's clearly like, no, yeah, I'm making sure this dude is being fed right like back shoulder passes and and go routes and alert routes and things like that. So like that's a great example of, Oh, yeah, you see something in week one, you're like, I don't really know how to calibrate to this because how good's the bills defense and is just a one game sample. You see two games after you're like, Oh, yeah, these two dudes are dialed in with each other. Harrison looks great. Like he looks like a star already. So we can just go ahead and forget about what we saw week one because that's not meaningful when you put it into context of Harrison's entire college career and then two games afterwards. I think that like, that's what's the good part about this portion of the season is you can start to really get a larger sample size of things to react to. Yeah, we've got three games now in the books. Okay, I brought this up last week, Matt, and I'm sure some of the podcast listeners were thinking what in the hell is James co smoking? Why is he talking about how Houston's offense didn't look quite clicked in, you know, and then here we are in week number three, they score seven total points. If this show is anything, Matt, it is divorced of results, right? Like I'm not going to be influenced. You and I are not going to be influenced by the scores of things by the counting stats of things. We're going to take a critical eye and look at the football and say, okay, yeah, they did that. But you know what I'm saying? And kind of apply that a little bit to what we were seeing on the football field. And I had brought that up in regards to Houston. It just didn't seem totally dialed in and suddenly all of a sudden out of nowhere against Minnesota, seven points total, this offense was completely out of whack. So I'll ask that question again. What did you see there in week number three? And I get it, man. People are going to say, oh, you know, Brian Flores, he's a defensive master. Okay, I get that. But at the same time, Minnesota doesn't necessarily have the personnel. You know what I'm saying? They shouldn't have the personnel anyways to be able to hang with these big boys in Houston. To me anyways, I don't know. I've just, again, I thought there was a little bit of certainly some cracks in the armor there when we're talking about Houston's offense. Definitely some cracks in the armor, which we can expand on. I would say one thing for sure is that this Vikings defense is probably the most difficult to play against in the NFL right now. Will they go down as the best defense in the league this year? You know, maybe, but I certainly think they're going to be a top five unit in the NFL because a lot of it is what Flores is doing. You know, he's showing cover one looks and dropping back into cover two. He's making things really difficult post snap on quarterbacks, making things obviously completely mugged up from a pre-snap look. I also think that where they really did improve was the personnel up front this year. You know, they added Dallas Turner and the draft, Jonathan Grenard, this was his revenge game against Houston Texans who essentially just decided like, yeah, we're good to let you walk and we're actually going to sign the guy that the Vikings are replacing you with in Daniel Hunter and we think that's like an upgrade. Well, Jonathan Grenard, if he wanted revenge, he got it in this game because he was kicking ass up front. That was one thing that just stood out watching the film back on this game and was that number one. I mean, Houston's offensive line. I mean, there was 11 penalties total by the Texans in this game. Sometimes like football is simple, like you turn the ball over and you get a bunch of penalties like you're going to lose the game. And that was kind of what happened in this game for sure. You know, they have an interception right away with CJ Stroud. That definitely turned them off kind of the, that sort of put them in a bad spot. You know, Larry Tunsell's one of the best left tackles in the league. He consistently put them in bad down and distant situations in this game. Also worth noting that they're down to Cam Acres at running back. So their run game, which looked great in week one has not been great the last two weeks in Chicago, which is another very good defense and Minnesota. So, and then I think, so that's kind of the micro stuff. I think the offensive line has had some issues in protection. They've gotten whooped around up front a little bit. The second thing I would point out too, is that, you know, this is an offense that we, it's a little bit with like what I think I talked about this with Derek Henry and the Ravens where all off season we talked about, man, this is going to be really cool. It's Derek Henry and Lamar Jackson, right? Well, right, those two guys have very different styles as runners, right? Henry's that typical the quarterbacks under center, you're going to give them that head of steam to get rolling, whereas Lamar Jackson, you're in shotgun and you're kind of doing option runs. It's going to take a minute to get, to get gelled there first two weeks didn't look that great. It looked great against the damn Cowboys who can't stop the run anyways. So where's the truth in that? And I think this Texans thing is a little bit similar here because yeah, this receiver trio and CJ Stroud is really cool, especially going on to an offense last year that was very good, but they are going through a pretty significant identity transformation here where they're now like a just a true 11 personnel team. They don't really have a full back anymore. At least they got rid of the guy Andrew Beck who was their full back last year. They're not running as many 12 personnel looks are not running as many 22 personnel looks. So that's a big deal. Like that's a big transition here for this team to be now an 11 personnel team. You know, as Bobby Sloeck calling the best plays for this style of the offense so far, I wouldn't say that's totally the case. I think Sloeck's good at his job. He can probably get it done in a while, but this has been an adjustment period overall. And then the final point I would make on this, we discussed Tank Dell last week on the show. Right. You know, saying like, Hey, he's starting a little bit slow probably because he's coming off an injury and he got shot in the off season. Yeah, I went back and I went back and charted his routes in weeks two and week three. I think he looked a lot more explosive in week three, but week two definitely didn't look like the same explosive player. I don't think he, I would just say he has not looked good as good as his rookie season. There've been some moments, but some of these like deeper routes against zone coverage. And again, I should say that the Vikings played really good zone coverage. They really mug things up back there, but overall not getting the same level of separation as we saw in his rookie season, probably because he is coming off an injury. Yeah. Newco Collins really wasn't featured in that first half and really came alive a little bit in the second half. Again, had a pretty decent game, but overall, I thought it was a little bit. It just was a chore a little bit to get him the ball, you know, they had to do some design stuff to try to get him some targets. And again, almost all of that stuff came in the second half. And really when you take a look in the fourth quarter, you know, it was Davis Mills throwing all these, you know, random incomplete passes, you know, late, late, late, late, late, which is great, but fine. But just overall, it just, it didn't ever seem as if Stroud and Nico Collins were quite on the same page. And I do wonder, we talked about this with Caleb Williams and, you know, when Kean and Alan returns, does it kind of sort of mess up his mental processing? I do wonder, Matt, and tell me if I'm wrong here, I just wonder if you throw digs into the mix and Diggs got a lot of targets in this game too. Does it, does it mess with CJ Stroud to not just find the open guy, but try to feed certain players at certain times like, is he thinking, man, I got to go get my ball to my guys. I got to go get it to Diggs. I got to go get it to Nico Collins, or, or is it just, again, Flora has just did a great job of masking coverages and Stroud was a little bit confused back there. I think more the latter than the former because in the first two games, I mean, it was just Nico, Nico, Nico, like, and, and I think that's a big thing when we're talking about, you know, why is Tankdell had a slower start to season two? We, we said this as well as like, Nico Collins is the alpha of this receiver room. He is going to finish the game with all like eight to nine to ten targets every single week. He did finish this game with ten targets. Some of that was definitely end of, end of the game stuff, as you mentioned, but, you know, yeah, I think that a lot of the looks that they were giving them, the Vikings giving the Texans were, was forcing the ball underneath two Stefan digs and he's going to get those looks. So the vertical guys in this offense are not, especially the guy in Tankdell who's the vertical outside breaking route player. We talked about that a lot from his rookie season where those are the routes that he was special on was, and I don't think he's been special on those routes so far this year, but just generally the best routes were out breaking routes against man coverage. You're not going to throw those routes as much when you have an easy layup guy in Steph digs and you have a guy, just a true top ten receiver in the NFL, alpha, you know, in Nico Collins, especially who specialized on over the middle routes where you are playing these cover two shells, you're going to want to force that ball into the middle there. That's how you can beat cover two is by throwing dig routes, put your big boy pants on, drop back and push that ball to the dig route, intermediate routes against man and zone coverage. That's kind of the problem here is just there is a lot going on in this Texans offense. And I would just say that what they really did here was they took away the like intermediate middle of the field, which is where Nico runs a lot of his routes because they're able to play coverage while also dropping a guy into the middle in addition to just throwing a lot of chaos at you from a blitz perspective, heat and quarterbacks up. And I don't think I don't think the offensive line had its best day. That's the big takeaway from this one too. All right. I'm going to put a bookmark on this conversation because again, I'm not a hundred percent sure where I'm at with the Houston Texans right now. I do know this. They should be better than they are just from a personnel standpoint, talent standpoint. It definitely feels as if they are kind of sort of in running on neutral. It's been good enough. Certainly. I'm not saying it's bad, but just given the expectations versus where they are right now, I want to put a bookmark on this conversation. Maybe we revisit this in a couple of weeks and see where we're at because again, I just again, I'm not saying they're underwhelming, but they certainly are not as good as advertised. Let's just put it that way. Let's just put it that way. I think that's totally fair and I think that, yeah, overall, I'm kind of confident that they'll figure it out, but it's a lot of transition and they've played two really good defenses here in week two and week three. Look great in week one. I do think getting Joe mixing back will really help. I think that it was in Indianapolis week one and after three weeks, again, you talk about a little clarity, I think we can safely say that Indianapolis, their defense is it's not very good. All right. Yeah. So we'll take a look and again, we'll just pin this conversation for a future date. All right. Let's talk about the New Orleans Saints. Man, you talk about them crashing back down to earth. Good Lord. After the first couple of weeks, man, we thought, okay, Clint, Coolby, I mean, I'm over here talking about Clue Coolby, I'm going to go get a head coaching job at the season, right? So what happened there in week number three? Yeah, another boring explanation to I think about the offensive line here. You go back and watch that game and, you know, for a couple of different things. They had two big injuries there, a center and guard, Eric McCoy, Cesar Ruiz lost time in this game. And that was actually the area of the offensive line that coming into the year you felt better about. Even if you had concerns about the offensive line as a whole, which, you know, did an episode with Brandon Thor in this offseason where we talked about this offense potentially offensive line potentially being one of the worst in the league. They've been masking that overall this year, but it was really the tackle play that was the concern. For the rookie Trevor Panning out there at right tackle, the interior actually has some pretty good players, especially McCoy, the center. Those guys might miss multiple weeks now. Not great, especially because McCoy kind of runs the whole show there. So that was an issue. They couldn't run the ball as well as they had in previous two weeks. I think Philadelphia once they once those offensive line issues started the injuries cropped up. I think Philadelphia kind of went hunting a little bit there. I think Jalen Carter especially just kind of took over this game from both a run and pass game perspective. So that that's kind of the concern here already is like, all right, you'd start to take piece away from this offensive line. The run game starts to get less efficient. Does your play action game get a little less efficient? You know, there was a couple of missed shots between Rashid Shaheed and Derek Carr as well. Yeah. So I think that's just sort of the that was sort of the concern in this game going forward. It's just, is that going to be an every week thing or do we get this back on track? I think offensive line injuries could potentially be problematic. Rashid Shaheed was, I mean, inches away from another big connection potentially for touchdown as well. Just could not secure a pass. I thought Derek Carr actually put a pretty good ball on him, but just could not. It was contested obviously, but but she just could not come down. Man, you talk about that defensive line for Philadelphia. I mean, the big uglies as Mark Schlareth calls him, the big uglies, man, this was a game that was just all about the big uglies, whether it was, it was absolutely a game in the trenches, whether we're talking offensive line, defensive line. This was a little bit of like an old school throwback style game. It was ugly on both sides offensively, obviously as the Eagles win 15 to 12, 15 to 12. But what is that all about? But it was an ugly game back and forth, but but it was a tight game too. So I don't know. In that way, I thought it was it was a fun watch because it was very dramatic. It was a dramatic watch, but man, just overall, the offenses on both sides definitely, definitely struggled a bit here. Yeah, for sure. I think we obviously got Chris Olave hitting on some of these big in-breaking routes like we talked about, you know, that's great. I think he's going to have his moments this year. Got that touchdown. Got that touchdown. Say he was going to get a touchdown this last week. He did. That was great. I do think when you look at the Saints upcoming schedule, you know, obviously this Eagles team has the potential every single week to be a good defense. I'm still not sure exactly where they rank in terms of like overall defenses in the NFL, but they do have the type of front that could take a team take a game over. With Atlanta, you know, Kansas City, Tampa Bay, Denver, the next few weeks, like there's some mixed bag spots in here. I worry about a team like Kansas City with the frontline that they have potentially taking over that game. Whereas like three weeks or a week ago, I would have said like, oh, that could be a potentially really fun shootout where, you know, Derek Carr is going to work against this defense. But if they can't block it up, man, that's going to be problematic because what we saw in the first two weeks of the year and, you know, it's worth mentioning like clearly, I don't think Mike Zimmer prepared for that offense. I don't know. The Panthers in week one definitely weren't ready for what they threw out there from motion and under center perspective. But okay, you get a couple of weeks of tape now, they're running a, they're running a creative offense. They're pushing the right buttons quote unquote, but it is pretty typical of Shanahan stuff, you know. So, and in it, in that type of offense, we were just talking about the same thing in Houston. They are having the same issues. And that offense, if you can't run the ball and if you can't block it up, you're going to have issues, especially getting into true drop back down and distant situations when you have Derek Carr at quarterback, I like Derek Carr's fine, but you need to get him in the right situations. That's my concern now is if they have issues on the offensive line and they can't run the ball as well as they were, they can't block it up in true dropback situations. That's where we could end up being a little bit of a problematic spot here with the New Orleans Saints. I am a little bit surprised by the Saints generally running two wide receivers out there predominantly, you know, it's it's very little 11 personnel for New Orleans. And, and really what they've done, I think is said, okay, we love Alvin Camara and Clint Kubiak, obviously just given the lineage is able to get a lot out of his running backs as well. They're going up against an Atlanta Falcons defense here in week number four that has not given up a single touchdown to the running back position. And I wonder if Atlanta says, all right, if you're going to beat us, you're going to have to go beat us with Derek Carr, which sounds a little crazy because I think most teams would say, all right, well, we'll just, you know, live with what we got here. But I just wonder if Atlanta is if they're able to plug up the run, and by the way, Alvin Camara is a little banged up as well, if they're able to plug up the run, will Clint Kubiak be forced to run a lot more 11 personnel or will he stick it out with two wide receivers and try to max protect and then, you know, basically see what we got and can they win another, you know, close. By the way, these games are always close and ugly. This Atlanta New Orleans game, you know, so I'm just, I'm curious, I'm curious to see what happens with New Orleans. First two weeks, it was gangbusters. As you mentioned, the defense, the defenses they were facing were quite not just, they just weren't up to snuff. And in week number three, they took on a Philadelphia Eagles team, man, we haven't even mentioned Quinyon Mitchell. That guy's a dog. Like, I don't know, I mean, I don't know if he's going to be a future shutdown guy, but right now as a rookie, dude, he is, he's a dog, man. Like, I really think Quinyon Mitchell is going to be a really good player in this league. I love that call out. Yeah. He's been awesome every time I've watched players go against the Eagles. So yeah, I mean, I think it's a good prospect. I think he fell a little bit too far in this draft, so I think the Eagles got a pretty good one there. That's a good call out. Yeah, I think this we always talk about with Vic Fangio defenses. They take a little bit of time to coalesce. I think they've gotten some pretty good play out of their linebackers too. Nikobi Dean had some moments in this game. Zach Bonn, who was actually talking about another revenge game here, he used to play for the Saints, did some like edge and linebacker stuff at times. He had a really nice game here. So yeah, this is season in general, man, Blond is playing out of his mind. Yeah. He's been great. I do think you're right though about these Saints games generally, like what they're not going to do is blow teams out, you know, 40 to sub 20, like they were in the first two weeks. I think generally the style of play that they have is going to be slower paced defensive heavy games. And that's so far what we've, I think this game looks more like what we'll probably get from the Saints throughout the course of the year, but they're often still, regardless of outcome gives them more advantages just with the way it's schemed than what we've seen previously. I agree. Okay. Let's flip to the other side of the sideline right there. So Philadelphia, John Dodson was just knocked out cold. I mean, a scary looking, you know, concussion that he suffered. Devante Smith, right? Yeah. Yeah. Oh, what did I say? Devante something else? Oh, Dodson. Okay. Okay. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Devante Smith. So the question immediately becomes, can John Dodson, look, he's not going to, he's not the caliber of player that Devante Smith is obviously, but he has done almost nothing in a Philadelphia Eagles uniform right now. So if, if they are going to scheme it up for him, just a little bit to get more involved, what do they have to do? How does John Dodson even begin to fill that Devante Smith role? Or is it just a hopeless cause? When it comes to hiring, don't search for a great talent. Match with them. Thanks to Indeed. Indeed is your matching and hiring platform with over 350 million global monthly visitors. According to Indeed data, and a matching engine that helps you find qualified candidates fast and indeed doesn't just help you hire faster, 93% of employers agree indeed delivers the highest quality matches compared to other job sites. According to a recent Indeed survey, leveraging over 140 million qualifications and preferences every day. 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That's a great question because stylistically, they're, you know, on a similar players, right? They're smaller, they're route runners. I think that's got that inside outside versatility too, you know? I know and in this game, he only ran 21% of his routes from the slot, which is actually the fewest on the team. Britain Covey, you know, got a ton of work in week two, he ran 67% of his routes from the slot. Paris Campbell, 85% of his routes from the slot, you know, Johnny Wilson, 41.7%. So, I mean, yeah, I just, I like the problem, the problem with guys like Dotson now and, you know, I'm, I'm really taking kind of a, a meta look at how he can go. First of all, first of all, I want the podcast listeners to know, Matt Harmon is, is, is rubbing his face, his eyes and his nose, just, just thinking about Dotsen for Devante Smith. I mean, it's, it's giving him a real, it's giving him some problems right now. Yes, it is. The, I'm trying to take like a meta look about guys like Dotson and guys like Elijah Moore, who have kind of previously had, you know, decent showings in RP, but are not, they've not become high end target earning players. And it's like, okay, well, why is that? I think a lot of that is because of the way teams play coverages now and the type of receivers that you want in today's NFL, you know, we're going to talk about Khalil Shakir later on in the show. And, you know, I got a piece for the site. We mentioned it last podcast as well about what receivers you prioritize them in the modern NFL. Well, I think the receivers that you are deprioritizing in the NFL are these like smaller route runners who are not the fastest, not the most explosive and certainly are giving you net nothing after the catch. And I think that's the problem for a guy like Dotson and I think this is true of Elijah Moore too. It's like, okay, well, Elijah Moore can like go out and get open on the outside, but he's too small for most quarterbacks to really want to hit that window. Most quarterbacks are not good enough to hit that window. And I think the same thing is true for Johan Dotson, who's good, actually does not even been like, I mean, he's not even been as good as like Elijah Moore in RP and like, I thought Dotson had really good hands in contested situations in college. That's really not come true so far in the NFL. That's not really showed itself. And he's definitely not a playmaker in the open field. So that's sort of where, I mean, shoot, again, I like Dotson as a player. I like really like the prospect. I thought his rookie year was really good. I was hoping he could step up into this role or any role here for the Philadelphia Eagles because they just need him to like go out there and get a damn target, right? I mean, right to rent 38 routes second most of the team to targets like that's just that's not great. Okay. Yeah, you know, some of that is the way he's used and some of that is also just his skill set. So I'd love to see him be put in motion more. I'd love to see him kind of detached from the line of scrimmage doing those things whereas maybe we get, you know, Johnny Wilson, more as our X receiver is just a dramatic falloff, man. Like we're going from AJ Brown, Devonta Smith. And now we're talking about Johnny Wilson and Harris Campbell and John Dotson and these guys. So yeah, like, I'll tell you what, like if Dotson doesn't do anything when both these receivers are out, I'm never going to talk about him again. All right. I'm never going to talk about him again. Hey, man. Okay. So I want to talk about his 2023 reception, perception profile dots and we talk about on this show a lot where the benchmarks that you look for 70% versus man and 80% versus zone. He was almost there. He was 70.6 versus man, which is again, solid number and then again, zone 79.3%. But I say that in saying that the 70, 80 benchmark that we talk about on this show, that's reserved for conversations regarding good players, like legitimately good players, not just, oh, this guy can be in the NFL. No, no, no, we're talking legitimately good players in the NFL. John Dotson, in a down year, in a down year, almost hit those benchmarks. So I just wonder, Matt, is there, there's got to be some upside that can be accessed here when we're talking about Dotson? Yeah. I mean, upside in a sense of like, I think he can be a functional NFL receiver because, you know, same with his rookie year, he was kind of right around those benchmarks, but didn't clear it against man, you know, and he kind of started slow, finished hot. I just think we, we haven't seen like a full stretch of like consistent performance from John Dotson. But I think he, I think he can still be a functional NFL receiver. And I think that this is a good moment for him to step up and like, earn something here in Philadelphia because they kind of have always sort of needed a third receiver threat. Just just a credible player. We don't need like this guy, whoever it is, when AJ Brown and Devonta Smith, like truly earning targets. But just a guy that like, okay, these other two players are taken away or like defenses are looking towards them. Just this is somebody I can trust. It's not like, you know, 2023 Julio Jones or whatever, 2020, whatever season it was. So I'm just hoping he can be that type of player. That's what I have hope for for Dotson, not that he's going to suddenly become like a superstar or anything like that. Best role for him inside or outside. I know he's got that versatility, but he just seems he has not been able to, at least for Philadelphia, crack that inside receiver role again. You talk about Burton Covey. I mean, hell, even this huge behemoth of a player and Johnny Wilson is playing a lot of slot receiver for them. I mean, you talk about power slot to take and that's the next level, Matt, with Johnny Wilson in there, but can Dotson, can Dotson be a slot player? And I bring that up because man, if you want to be an inside player, you've got to be over 80% success rate versus zone. And obviously he just has not hit that yet. I think he should be a slot receiver. I thought he should be a slot receiver coming into the league. I thought that he profiled similarly to like a Doug Baldwin type of a player and, you know, maybe like a vertical slot type, like Christian Kirk, because I think he has always been kind of a good, he's been a better intermediate and downfield separator than a short and underneath separator. There's a lot of room for a player like that. For sure. Yeah, the thing is just he's always been an outside receiver. Like I said, 21% of his routes last week on the outside when there is no AJ Brown, like John Dotson's your AJ Brown replacement. I don't freaking think so even even last year with the damn commanders, he was not really a slot player at all because Curtis Samuel was their slot player, you know, you go back and look at that season for the commanders, which, I mean, talk about a guy that can't hit those windows that we're we're discussing mean, Sam Hal certainly cannot hit those windows. 42% slot snaps. Like I think he needs to almost be more of like a 70% slot player. And then I could be because he's he's a smaller player, like again, sure, he can go out and get quote open against like man and press coverage at a not a lead rate and anything close to a lead. Like, okay, 70% against man. We talked about like that. That's a pretty good mark. That's when we're starting to be interested in players. Correct. It's not you're not Chris Olave, or like the next step on digs or anything like that just because you hit a get close to 70% versus man. So just keep that in mind. Right. So he like a guy like that though, he's still it's not going to be like a big window. And he's he's not been a contested catch threat in the NFL, even though he was in college, which has been disappointing. So in the end zone, for whatever reason, Johnson in the end zone is pretty money. Yeah. I mean, I guess in his rookie or he definitely had a lot of touchdowns and things like that. But so it just it just is really difficult because you can't like that guy on the outside. Maybe he's got the route running to get open, but he's not he's not an explosive player. And he's not a guy that is going to bring you a so bring you a ton of yards after catch. So are you getting him these like layup slot routes? I don't know about that. And today's NFL where you want to get your explosives by yards after catch. So it's like the only role I think he could play and be like maybe an above average player in is that kind of like Christian Kirk vertical slot type of option. And that could see him fitting into that role here in a AJ Brown less and Devontay Smith less offense. And either way, it's going to be a struggle. I'm kind of sort of smiling over here because we have in this conversation, is this guy a future Kansas city chief or what? I mean, oh, everything you just described, you know, it's like, gosh, you could you could have said that about a lot of these Kansas city chiefs wide receivers, which brings me to Skymore, baby. Oh, boy. Exactly. I mean, I really do think there is like, again, I'm trying to be introspective about these things. We're talking about Elijah Moore and Skymore and John Watson and these guys. And these are guys who not so much sky more in the NFL, but definitely as a prospect, like, okay, pretty good success rates versus man and stuff like that's like, well, why don't they get the ball and I think there's other reasons beyond just the route running, why they don't get the ball and I think it's important to emphasize those even though, you know, like, Oh my God, look at the green on the route chart, the green on the route chart. Well, there's more that goes into it than that. And I think that's why, you know, yeah, like the great, we'll talk about, I know we'll talk about the chiefs here in a second. It's like, man, why did they throw Skymore in the outside role and she writes in the inside roles? Because if you throw a little Mickey Mouse route to Rishi rice, he's going to get you like five to seven more yards after it and Skymore is just not. Yeah. No, it's true. Rishi rice after the catch has been fantastic. I love the fact that you are not a slave to your own numbers, which is, I love that, you know, a real, I mean, again, just a true football guy is Matt Harmon, which I love. All right, Kansas City, Xavier Worthy, he had an explosion game there in week one and everyone thought, my God, I mean, the, the, the, the tweets and the memes of how did, how did they let Kansas City get their hands on Xavier Worthy? It was just all over the place, you know, okay. Now that being said, after week one, he's done almost nothing, Matt. In weeks two and three, he saw eight targets combined and four receptions. So a 50% completion rate, 17 yards in back to back game. So we're talking over two game stretch. He's got 34 receiving yards and quite frankly, I got to be honest with you. I don't even remember him making catches. There's nothing memorable about what he has done on the football field over the last two weeks. So, I don't know, man, like what is going on here? Maybe we can have a bigger conversation about Kansas City, but, but specifically in regards to Xavier Worthy, it feels as if it feels as if your prospect profile on him seems pretty bang on where a guy can make some splash plays, but week in and week out, play by play, drive by drive might not be the most reliable player. Yeah, stop me if you've heard this story before, but I feel like the Chiefs need a real, like outside receiver. God dang it. Stop me. You heard the story for. I do think I do think the loss of Marquis Brown is kind of looming large right now. I know it's. Oh, my goodness. Totally. Yeah. Cause I mean, they just have nothing in the intermediate area. And that's the problem with Xavier Worthy right now, like Xavier Worthy. This is very early in his NFL career. I'm not saying this is who he's going to be forever, but yeah, he's like kind of a gadget player right now. He's a, he's not, first of all, uh, he's not, he's just not big enough to win against press man coverage. And like, I don't need, uh, I don't need to see another go route to Xavier Worthy against man coverage as an outside receiver again. And you look at his alignment data. He's run 69% of his routes from the outside. He's run about 31% of his routes from the slot. I mean, yeah, I get, I get why that is because the best receiver on the roster is Rishi rice and he needs role catering. So they're doing all of the role catering for Rishi rice, which is certainly boosting his fantasy stock. And I think Rishi rice was funny. I went to chart his week three game against the Falcons and I'm like, I wonder if there's really been any route progression here. Uh, you know, is he running more down? No, he's not. He's mostly still. Yeah. Same stuff. And he's actually, I think his zone coverage scores are up. So that's going to serve like here. That's great. Yeah, we said, if he's going to become a high volume targeted player and like a real receiver, he's going to need to get over that 80% success rate versus zone number, which in the games I've charted so far is the case. So like that's good. He's moving more towards, you know, that like Jarvis Landry, Judas, Miss Schuster type of area that we've talked about with him, but like that's still the player he is. If you don't have anything else, I don't think you can really run a above average offense through a player just like that because you're not threatening teams vertically, like teams will always defend the chiefs a certain way because Patrick Holmes is back there. But yeah, dog, you've got to have some other guys that you can throw the ball to in the intermediate area outside the numbers. And I just don't think they have the right. I just don't really don't think Xavier Worthy is that guy. Um, like Xavier Worthy is not a guy that you can go and line up on the outside and have him win against physical corners. He's just, he's not that player. Uh, he is definitely a guy that if you get him post routes from the slide, if you get him post routes off the lines from which he's going to, he's can sting you for some big place. And we will see big Xavier Worthy weeks, but I definitely think it's going to be volatile and there's going to be ups and downs to it. And he's just like this idea that they drafted another fast guy and they just got their, their next Tyree kill. I can't tell you like a less founded in who the players, Xavier Worthy is a take. But that is it just, it just is crazy. Right. Well, I mean, and by the way too, it's like, can we, I get that he's fast, but Tyree kill is fast and he is muscly, you know, and this guy's, oh my gosh, he's absolutely rocked up. Man, like, come on, bro. Like you can't. You can't compare those two guys. They threw a screen to Xavier Worthy in, in that week three game against the Falcons. And you know, you just like somebody just brought him down with an arm tackle. Like, right, that you've never see Tyree kill go down on an arm tackle. No. Yeah, he's, he is a physical football player. Like that's, this is what I'm talking about like in right now, in this league, you have got, if you're going to be an after catch threat, if you're going to like, all right, how do we design touches for this player, get in the ball underneath. And like all credit in the world to Rishi Rice, like he is that guy. He is in that sort of like that I'm on Ross St. Brown's sort of like corollary of receivers that we talk about. He's kind of, I think he's in that group. Like he definitely doesn't affect the team. He doesn't affect the game downfield consistently. And you know, does that are you want to call that limitations? I think you can say that there are some limitations to his game. But that's okay. Crushes in the role that he's in right now and he's going to, he's going to go down as one of the best picks in fantasy this year because of that. But from a football standpoint, there's something lacking in the chief's offense. Touching on stone 5.4% of his past is 20 plus yards down the field. All we heard of this all season was we got speed again, baby, we're throwing the ball deep. Three games into the season, they're not throwing the ball deep. No. And again, that goes, that goes all the way back. I mean, a couple of things are happening here. Obviously having Hollywood Brown as in, as a weapon opposite of Xavier worthy, I think definitely takes a lot of these explosive plays off the field. But man, Kelsey has looked sluggish as well. He just has looked really sluggish. Is he in, I do think it's fair to wonder and ask aloud, is he actually in game shape? It doesn't seem like he is, you know? And I don't know, look, I don't know if he's in, like maybe he's out of shape or if age is just catching up, right? Because he is 35 years old, right? Is it age, is it, is it that he's just done, I don't know, but he's certainly sluggish on the football field right now. And you talk about having that intermediate threat, guys, that's, that's, that is Travis Kelsey, you know, that's exactly what Travis Kelsey would do. I mean, he was absolutely crushing you in the intermediate area of the football field, right? He's just not getting open right now. He's just, I mean, even if he is getting open, how available is he, you know, like how open is he? It's, it's tough. And after the catch right now is nonexistent for Travis Kelsey as well, which was a big part of his game too. I just want to talk about some of Xavier Worthy's prospect numbers here. His prospect profile was that he had a 68% success rate versus man coverage, which was a prospect 44th percentile in the prospect profiles. And then press coverage, 59.5% against press coverage, which is 28th percentile. Pretty good against zone though, nearly 81% success rate versus zone coverage. But Matt, this is just, man, it's, it's tough to watch Kansas City kind of go through this again. We were going through this last year and it was a problem last year. And it's like, all right. They go get Hollywood Brown. They go get Xavier Worthy like, ah, they were trying all these deep throws in the preseason. We're like, all right, they're back, baby. They are back and they're not back. They are not back. No, they're not back. And like, look, by the way, could Kelsey just be doing what he did last year, which was starting the season slow. And then by the end of the year, it's like, all right, Kelsey's cooking again because it's time to go in the Super Bowl. And, you know, could this be Xavier Worthy? They're bringing him along slow, just like they brought Rishi Rice along kind of slow last year. A little bit different because like Xavier Worthy is playing a ton because, I mean, who else are they going to play? You're going to play Nicole Hardman over him or something like that. That would be crazy. But yeah, I mean, all these guys are kind of, maybe he's, he's ramped up more at the end of the year. You know, they have a buy in week six, maybe he's more ramped up after that. Yeah, I just think the, I think that the loss of Marquis Brown was sort of kind of hand waved because Rishi Rice earned so many targets and, you know, Xavier Worthy is all like, could he just be who Hollywood Brown is like, no, man, he, he's not the same type of player. Like Hollywood Brown is not a superstar, but he's like a starting NFL receiver who probably could be better deployed as a slot off ball player. But like we've seen him have useful seasons as an ex receiver before, like an on the line player who runs those routes in the intermediate area of the field. I mean, go back and look at his 2023 profile, which wasn't even that good of a year. I mean, especially like 2022 and years like that is like digs and curls and slants like that base, just like NFL offense, route tree, that's the thing that they're missing right now. And yeah, look, like Kansas City's good enough to just kind of win these ugly games like they did against Atlanta, 22 to 17, you know, win a close game against Cincinnati. Totally fine. They can do that. They're the chiefs. It's fine. But I just think when we're talking about the ceiling of the offense, it's clear that that ceiling is diminished right now. Okay. Well, let's talk about San Francisco here just a little bit. Obviously, Joanne Jennings went absolutely ballistic had the career, a career game. I mean, the game of his life, three touchdowns, my God, he looked amazing. But I think the flip side of that coin and the flip side of that conversation, Matt, is what is going on with the brands in IU? You are the brands in Ayuk Whisperer, okay? What is going on with brands in IU? He had an absolute smash spot versus the LA Rams last week. And yet, despite that 10 targets, so we got targeted plenty, 10 targets, five catches for 48 yards. My dude brands in IU has not had a 50 yard game yet in three tries, just 11 receptions on 20 targets. So that's been inefficient as well. What's going on with IU? It takes a lot to prepare for game day as a dedicated fan, and preparing the perfect tailgate meal might be the most important of all. That's why Best Foods Real Manace is the MVP. Best Foods Manace is the secret to bring out the rich and creamy taste to all your game day dishes from Buffalo Chicken Dip to your favorite sub sandwich and everything in between. So give it a try and Mayo Game Day be delicious with Best Foods Real Manace. Shop by your local Walmart, Kroger, or grocery store and add some extra deliciousness to your game day dishes this football season. 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Sounds like a beauty didn't practice you know for the entire summer look like I get it you know I think CD lamb the Cowboys played tonight is people are listening to this but like I think CD lamb has had some of those issues too so far this year sure not it's it's been more dramatic with IU for sure I think his hold out was a little uglier so you know maybe there's something that was like you could do whatever you want on the side but everybody who plays football will tell you that you only get into football shape by playing football and practicing and going through the rigors of it and being in camp you can't just air drop in at week one and be like let's go I mean even even Trent Williams who is you know a future Hall of Famer he's had to get IVs like every like at least the last two games because he's not in game shape and he said he's like I'm not totally a hundred percent there and things like that it's just more dramatic with IU because of the timing of being like receiver quarterback so I think that's been some of the biggest issues here and the 49ers are content to hey Joanne Jennings is dude he's a good player they extended Joanne Jennings even after like drafting Ricky Pearson on the first round you know so Joanne Jennings is a good player I've always said on the show Joanne Jennings is a good player blocks his ass off clutch on third downs oh yeah no block no rock baby he's he's getting the rock because he's been blocking for years so yeah I just think with IU command like if this is still an issue in week eight nine ten you know late in the season then like let's have another conversation but yeah he just looks like a player who is not totally talk about like oh not in shape like Brandon are you I'm not saying he's out of shape but he's not in football shape right now that's for sure interesting stuff here let me let me let me list off a couple of stats here per next gen stats there has not been a more successful receiver versus press coverage than his teammate Joanne Jennings and Joanne Jennings when pressed has been targeted nine times he's caught all nine balls for 147 yards and two touchdowns meanwhile I found this fascinating Brandon Ayuk has been one of the least successful versus press coverage he's been targeted one time on 26 press attempts excuse me he's been targeted seven times on 26 press attempts he's only caught one ball for 12 yards Matt this is a player when you go to his reception perception profile on reception perception dot com go check it out you look at his route tree and you start getting the sweats because my god Brandon Ayuk is I mean I'm doing the James McAvoy Fanning GIF you know what I'm saying like it's it's an all green route tree then you go look at success rate versus coverage 96 percentile versus man 91st percentile versus zone 97th percentile Matt versus press coverage and yet here we are in the year 2024 and Brandon Ayuk is one of the least successful against press this is crazy obviously you know what they're tracking is different than what I'm tracking for sure of course for sure but yeah he's just he's not that guy right now I guarantee you his press numbers for NGS would be a lot better last season so he's not that player right now will he become that player this year totally possible I would be like shocked if he wasn't a high caliber number one wide receiver by the end of the year but right now he's just he's not in he's not in football shape and I think it's like kind of as simple as that let me like I want to bring up another study to done by I think it was bleacher report and there was a former Saints slash Cal defensive lineman and got his name escapes me right now and it's driving me nuts but he actually when he left football wrote a little bit for bleacher report and he did this whole big study on does it matter if you miss training camp and as a former player as you said all former players tell you all of course training camp training camp matters training camp matters okay what he found though which I found to be very interesting there really was not a correlation between a injuries right or b production really between guys who miss training camp and especially guys who miss training camp not because of injury but miss training camp because of a contract situation those guys their production really did not fall off from an offensive standpoint so I bring this up to say and again obviously this is a wide arching it's not an individual case by case but it is just a wide arching look at all the numbers right I almost wonder if we were to apply those metrics to what we got with Brandon I just wonder and to your point Matt do we start seeing some explosion games a little later in the season to kind of make up for this early part of the season where clearly he has struggled I'm just I do wonder and again we don't talk fantasy on this on this podcast very often but Brandon IU to me is a very interesting by low candidate oh totally because I'm sure people are pits because he still ended up going high in the draft and things like that right but yeah man like obviously I'm sure the study there like looked at their end of season production yes exactly you know so yeah Brandon Iyuk is off to a slow start he has you know just 11 catches in 119 yards but would anybody be shocked if he finished right around 1200 for the year because he had some massive games down the stretch or went over a thousand yards and then does that look like success a successful season at the end of that study this is the thing with football man and we do we do this all the time this season we focus on these micro you know weeks and games and samples like what's going on with this what's going on that and then by the end of the year you look at the end of the numbers like okay well the right here but it's like the journey of that to get there can always be very rocky it's especially especially at the receiver position yeah okay let's talk about Khalil Shakir because this is a player that you had mentioned that you featured actually on the website as well in terms of the Matt Harmon brain dump here but interesting guy man like for the Buffalo Bills what has made him so darn successful he has a man he's got a hundred percent catch rate through three games this is nuts this is not a running back we're talking about it's not a tight end that's doing like a little tight end leak route or something no it's Khalil Shakir he's playing wide receiver he's caught all 14 targets thrown his way for 168 yards and two touchdowns Khalil Shakir has been I just I mean he's been their most productive player and quite frankly I think he's been their most obviously been their most reliable pass catcher there in Buffalo yeah dude he's a stud okay he's a really good player you know prospect that I really liked you people can find the old prospect profile on the site and I just think he's really good like my hot take about Khalil Shakir is that I think you could drop him in the exact role that the Chiefs have or she rice and he would put up the exact same numbers because he's in this archetype of player two man you know I've I've started his last two games so dolphins jaguars he's been in the slot over 70 percent he's definitely a slot if not slot only he's a slot mostly player but 84 percent success rate versus zone in these games 73 percent success rate versus man definitely the rishi rice route tree like if I'm going to bang on rishi rice for the little short route tree you definitely will say the same about Khalil Shakir slants flats curls but he can win in the intermediate area too he's not going to be like a go ball receiver he's not going to be like a deep receiver anything but the guy catches everything he has great hands and he makes a difference after the catch like you give him the ball in open space he's making a dude miss okay he's and he's a physical player too he's six foot 190 you know he's not like the biggest receiver in the world he's kind of a power slot player because he plays but because he plays physical so like that's my thing is like I don't know if the bills ever will give him a big target load because they have other dudes to throw to and they have like a young Coleman and you know Curtis Samuel will definitely get involved the more the more he the farther who gets away from an August turf toe you know I don't think they'll be playing Mac Collins forever I think that they will eventually give those snaps to Curtis Samuel but although what Mac Collins is doing the sacrificial X receiver thing so for the sacrificial X receiver movement maybe we do want Mac Collins out there so I've got two competing interests here but yeah like I think Khalil Shakir maybe he's never going to get the Rishi Rice target treatment well maybe because the bills I actually have some other players the third two here where the Chiefs don't and but at the same time like I think if you gave him that target load he would respond with successful and productive productive play in this offense interesting stuff man Khalil Shakir has certainly been a good player for the Buffalo Bills and and yeah I think we saw bits and pieces of this but this is the first time Matt that Khalil Shakir has been this effective on an every week basis again we've seen the flashes I mean you can go through his game log he's got some really like whoa like he did that you know what I mean like some real big games on an individual basis but the fact that he's been able to sustain that through three weeks I think has been really really impressive okay can I ask you about this is a little bit I don't know non sequitur here but and off the radar wide receiver that you are intrigued by right now I bring this up because you kind of brought up Khalil Shakir kind of sort of out of nowhere and then again so much of that has been proven true over the last couple of weeks since you've written about him so again you know being the guy that I am I'm a curious mind I got to know in the mat of Matt in the mind of Matt Harmon who's another off the radar wide receiver that you're intrigued by right now I'll give you two and like very very different players because yeah like I do think Shakir could put up great numbers if he got a ton of targets I just don't know if he will and but I think a lot of it is because of this role these receiver types that we're talking about guys that can get open against zone coverage guys that can make a difference with the ball in their hands and guys that are reliable right that's the Shakir arc type that's the same brown peak arc type and then rishi rice and then sort of like this whole group of players I think someone who might fit into this and I kind of think we touched on him briefly on the last podcast but is Luke McCaffery because I've been trying to think like what did the commander see at Luke McCaffery that you know I only charted two games of his but I thought he was a guy that could win on short routes right but that was kind of it and then it's sort of things oh well isn't that not what we're talking about with these rishi rice cool Shakir types like you know Luke McCaffery obviously has running background he could probably make a difference with the ball in his hands we've even seen a ton from him so far but he has played a little bit and I just wonder if you look at an offense that it's been very spread out obviously behind Terry McLaurin you know it's a wide receiver Terry McLaurin's running around on 80% of the dropbacks Zach hurts at tight end to second at 70.3 Luke McCaffery is third with 43.6% he's only been targeted six times on the year but I think he's a yards after catch threat so could as as he plays more and more as the year goes on do we phase out some of these you know role player types at the receiver position and focus on a guy who if they're going to start chucking it to Terry if they're going to start and Jay Daniels has that arm to push it down the field is that going to open space for sort of a guy to run flats and slants and curls and I do think Luke McCaffery can do that I don't know about like downfield routes and things like that but I think he can do that against zone coverage and be sort of that big slot receiver so he's someone that I'm intrigued on just by this like sort of receiver arc type the other guy would throw out is playing in tonight's game so if you listen to this after Thursday this hopefully this guy didn't you know poop all over his pants or whatever but is Jalen Tolbert for the cowboys I think Tolbert's flashed a little bit I don't think he's a great player but oh yeah it's such an he had such an intriguing collegiate profile such an intriguing one I really liked his profile and he came like it's been a slow burn but they have trusted him to be on the field here with Dak Prescott yeah yeah yeah yeah they've been trying to throw him chunk plays down the field and I kind of think they sort of need it because I just don't think Brandon Cooks can affect the game in the way he used to from a vertical receiver standpoint from an outside receiver standpoint CD they want to get him slot reps like they sort of kind of need Jalen Tolbert to stand up to step up and I wonder if over the course of the year he can become more of a guy that earns true targets as an outside boundary receiver interesting stuff I wonder too with look when you talk about Luke McCaffrey utilized on so few snaps but when he's in there they certainly seem dedicated to targeting him I still and again I'm not I am not Matt Harmon I'm not a film guy but when I just watch him play football I still see some difficulties in that start stop area so that curl and the comebacks and those kind of routes I think still pose some problems for him but I don't know and again by the way he's converted why he's only been playing he's only been playing wide receiver for what two years now this is I think his third or fourth year playing wider that's crazy that's crazy so I'm not saying he doesn't have the upside I just mean it's just that he's not quite there from a route running perspective at least from what I've seen and I'd be fascinated to see what you see Matt if you ever get around to charting him in season here but again not not that many snaps to be honest you're not that many targets obviously as we are in the early portion of the season by the way just wanted to follow up here so I finally did find this it's a fellow player a ex player by the name of Ryan Riddle if you guys wanted to go read this it's it's Ryan Riddle he did a few guest spots for Bleacher Report and if you want to Google it it is Ryan Riddle the importance of an NFL training camp and it was on Bleacher Report it's a pretty long you know pretty long column he's a former Cal guy so he's used to writing these long papers and he kind of wrote it like a little bit like a research paper which is fine it's a it's like I said an interesting read the one thing I did find in here though was that generally there was no correlation to missing training camp and production except for wide receiver where he found that guys who missed training wide receivers who missed training camp did average five yards less per game in the in the seasons that they sampled so that is interesting of note as well anyways I don't even remember how I came oh now I do because I was doing research on CD lamb and Jamar Chase and Brandon I you can miss in all this time and I'm like man does this even matter bro so I did a bunch of researching you know I did the whole Cal thing too I just wanted to do some research here and I found this thing too and and yeah man interesting read I would encourage those those folks to go and find that if you will anyways all right well the the show is good man we're good to go I hope you guys have a great week for and I hope you guys score all the fantasy points that you need to get that up anyways but Matt Harmon and I we got to go uh remember it's never too late to chase your dreams please what's next at Moss Adams that question inspires us to help people and their businesses strategically define and claim their future as one of America's leading accounting consulting and wealth management firms our collaborative approach creates solutions for your unique business needs we leverage industry focus insights with the collective technical resources of our firm to elevate your performance uncover opportunity and move upward at Moss Adams.com
