Grant and Danny
Why do you think passing is down in the NFL?
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Monday night football will be in the crowd, sitting with the people, Danny. I know you like to be in your basement on your couch. And you know, I like to be press box paulson. I like to put on some slacks tuck in a shirt, sit in the press box. We will be sitting among the people, the local Ojayans, as we watch, Ohioans. There's going to be a lot of people wearing Chad Ocho Senko jerseys around us, I would imagine, as we root on the local 53. It's gonna be cool, man. I like visiting other stadiums just to remind myself of what's possible. You know what? You know what I mean? When I was on the beat, I went to all but four NFL stadiums. Now a couple of open since then. So I probably have to add them to the list and do some recalibrating. Cincinnati was one of the four stadiums I never went to. So this is big, actually, I will be checking one off of the list. I did not go to Foxboro the way it worked out weirdly. That's so weird. You didn't go there. Didn't ever go to Houston where the Texans play at Reliant Stadium. And they've had a bunch of Super Bowls and events and stuff, but I've never been there. The Bengals was one. And I have not been to the new Atlanta stadium, the new Minnesota stadium. So it's at least five now, maybe one or two others. But I'm super excited. I'm actually closer to finishing the ring, so to speak, on the NFL stadiums than I am ballparks, or I have like seven more ballparks to get to. That's great. That's a quarter of the way down, right? With some of the old school ones. I guess if they keep making your stadiums, it'll be harder for you. But yeah, that's pretty neat. So we'll be there Monday night. If you're going to the game, let us know. We want to try to do a little tweet up little meetup with people before we go into the stadium out and about in Cincinnati. But should let you guys know, we were just talking about the passing numbers being down around the NFL. So before we get into some of Washington's stars struggling, here are some of the hard and fast numbers, Danny, through a couple of games that I think are most prevalent. Passing touchdowns through two weeks by year starting in 2019, 105 passing touchdowns through two weeks in 2020, 110, 2021, 110, 2022, 105, pretty much exactly the same for four years. Last year, 86, you go, huh, that's weird. What happened? This year, 66. That was prior to Monday night football, Kirk had a couple. I don't think Jalen hurts through for no Barkley got tackled at the one inch line and then he plunged it in the next play. So yeah, he had one that of auntie Smith, he had one that of auntie Smith. Okay. So 69. Yeah, there you go. Nice. So still, though, the average for a four year span was a little over 105. The last two years, it's been 86 and 69. If you're looking at passing yards per game, per team, through two weeks of football, in 2020, 2015, it was 240. The next year, 258, 2017, 221. Then more recently here from 28 18 on, 250, 249, 249, 249, by the way, the consistency, that is crazy. Right around 250 yards, 2022 down to 228, 2023 down to 217. This year, passing yards per game per team for two weeks, 193.2. So we have gone from 250 consistently for years through about 2022 to now 193 this year. These numbers are just hard to ignore. So you've got your touchdown category, your yardage category. If you look at sack percentage, I think is interesting. 7.8% sack rate through two weeks, Danny, the highest for the start of the NFL season in the 2000s quarterbacks are getting sacked at a higher rate than they have in 25 years. But it's not leading to more production. You would think that usually correlates with, okay, there's more downfield shots. There's more big plays and there aren't. And also you would think that maybe after a sack, you're going to pass on the next down because now you need 18 or 20 yards. So at least you get some, some underneath stuff. It's not adding up 2020, 5.8% sacks 2021, 6% of plays 2022, 6.3%. Last year, 7%. This year, 8% of plays have been sacks, the highest again in a quarter century. What's going on here? There's a number of things. You go back a handful of years, not even I'm not talking about 10 years, but like a few years and a third of the league, basically half the guys that started every game for their team and they're still a normal playing 16 games, by the way, through for at least 30 touchdowns. That was the normal. You look at league leaders, guys, like Aaron Rodgers for 48, Pat Mahomes in the upper 40s, et cetera. Last year, four guys did it with an extra game through for 30 touchdowns. I'm not talking about something crazy, like a 50 touchdown season or something, but just for 30, passing is now because it was so essential to be great at it. That's now what defenses are designed to stop. So I see tweets from really smart guys. I've been fascinated with this topic. So guys, like Benjamin Solak who have broken down a bunch of different film have offered a few ideas to this. Have you seen anything yet on the percentage of passes as opposed to runs and whether that's changing? Because I get the sense watching the games that teams are running more than they're passing. It's not even not meaning over 50% of the time, but like even compared to three years ago, that teams are calling more run play. So obviously yards and touchdowns will be down throwing the ball if you're running it more, but I don't have numbers to back down. Right. So it just sort of abstract. It felt like it was 65 35 before. Now it's much closer to 50 50. It's not 50 50. It's closer. So I think you're hurt. So the question then could be why, and I think it all comes back to how defenses are playing it. This is the essential ingredient to me. So I think because 11 personnel, three receiver looks became the norm. Nickel cornerbacks became the norm. The base defense of three linebackers is gone. Now it's smaller players. So where's the weakness? Making that Mike's, Mike, you sand were still making that 180 pound cornerback that's lined up not too far from line of scrimmage. Make him play in the run game. That's where your advantage is for years. The advantage was my tight end on your whatever. My third receiver is better than your third corner. I can line my number one receiver up in a stack formation and have him beat your second or third best corner. Now because of the prevalence of zone, keeping everybody back, have everything be in front of you, passing yards are down for multiple reasons. One, there aren't as many deep shots or as many intermediate to deep shots. The reasons for that, one defense are taken away. Two, nobody wants to get the quarterback hit. Three, I don't know that offensive line play without all the preseason and cohesion and all the turnover is that's good. You just said preseason. I want to, I want to mention that in a little more detail. To me, the two major areas are how defenses are playing, which you were just referencing and we continue to talk about and also the lack of preseason. I don't think a lack of preseason makes it harder to get your running game going. I think a lack of preseason though makes it harder for the timing in the passing game. This is not my own opinion. This is something coaches have told me. This is something players have told me. But what do you always hear about? You hear about timing, right? Especially in past pro, we were talking with Austin Echler yesterday, getting on the same page with the guy next to you or everybody's assignment being known in the guard and the tackle in the center being on the same page. That comes with time and reps and game reps, frankly. So I think past protection is hindered by a lack of preseason. I think the passing game in general with the timing with your receiver, knowing how guys are going to break in, break out when they like to stem and cut things off and throttle it down and sit in a zone. All those types of things, I think Danny, are affected by the preseason. Player movement makes it necessary that you have these guys making plays in the preseason and teams have kind of opted against it. I think that's a big part of it, to be honest with you. And that part can be fixed in a month in two months. Yeah, maybe not. If defenses are still playing you the same way, maybe it's not going to come all the way back. But that part of it is a right now problem, not a sustainable all year problem. So then, yeah, so you would see some growth as the season progresses, but it's not getting back to 2021 levels, for example. I think another contributing factor, central pass rush, it used to be where your pass rushes on the outside interior guys, defensive tackles are smart cars. They're Gilbert Brown. You occupy as many blockers as possible. It's Lawrence Taylor. It's, you know, JJ Watt off the edge. Now, that's not now the second, but Aaron Donald for so many years. And then, you know, the Dexter Lawrence is the Leonard Williams is the interior defensive lineman, sometimes in a 34, sometimes in a 43, the shortest distance to get to the quarterback to interrupt these passing games is straight ahead. That's true, like 10 years ago. I'm not saying there were no great defensive tackles, but heck, five years ago, I would say that when you thought defensive tackle, run stuffing, beefy, block attracting, you know, smart car, basically, right? Now guys are passrushers. And if you're not, you're not getting drafted early. So like when Deraun Payne was taken in the top 15, the big question was, is this guy going to be able to rush the quarterback or see more of a run stuffing type? I think a lot of guys at that position now are the best passrushers on their team. Yeah, to your point. And you, because that was the weak link of the offensive line. The right, the left hackles make a 20 million bucks. Well, the left guard is fourth round Freddie, who's, you know, fits the scheme and is probably Corey Licton Steiger, wherever Mike Shanahan goes. That's the weak link in terms of pass pro. So it's, it's a live chess match where defenses for years got tired of being on highlight reels and said, okay, fine, here's what we're taking away. And I think it really would usher in this new era. Quite frankly, he's Pat Mahomes. And that Kansas City offense, what teams realized was if you try to play them straight up, you can blitz them, you can do anything under the sun, they're going to kill you. They're going to be, punch you in the gut until they get that big play. And then that's the game. Then you lose. So they said never ever over the top. They are permanently to borrow baseball parlance in no doubles defense, which means nothing over your head. Everything is going to be in front and front and front and front. You combine that with lighter boxes, easier run looks, and you're seeing prolific run totals through a couple of weeks from multiple teams. Think of Green Bay, they threw 14 passes and one a football game, handing them off to Josh Jacobs 32 times. That's unheard of in our recent era, but that's the best way to do it because of the way defenses are. So speaking of Green Bay, what about this? Alright, Malik Willis started that game for the Packers. This summer, get away in the Hyundai you've always wanted at the Hyundai Getaway sales event. Get the hottest deals of the season on many of our award-winning Hyundai models, which all come with America's best warranty. But get going because these deals won't last. Add more joy to your journey at the Hyundai Getaway sales event. Now for a limited time, get 1.99% APR for 60 months on the Hyundai Tucson or Alantra. Hurry into the Hyundai Getaway sales event. Offers end September 3rd. Call 562-314-4603 for details. Malik Willis completed 12 passes in that win. I haven't looked at his spray chart, but I'd be willing to bet a lot of them were out of around the line of scrimmage, right? Is there something to what is an obvious philosophical shift in the NFL to the more athletic quarterback? I wouldn't call it the running quarterback because there's only a few guys that run a lot. But as an example, right now, there are two games. There are four quarterbacks in the NFL that have over 20 rushing attempts. On their way to 170 attempts, I don't think it's going to happen that way. Frankly, all four won't stay healthy. But Jaden Daniels, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Lamar Jackson have all run the ball more than some starting running backs through two games this season. But in the league 10 years ago, 15 years ago, you just didn't see quarterbacks running as much. And what I think teams have figured out as you don't want to statue in the pocket. You don't want some flat-footed dude who's just a thrower of the football. You want a dual threat. You want an athlete. Everybody's trying to find two-time MVP Lamar Jackson or maybe even if it's more Josh Allen, let's say, but someone who you who can do both. Like I even after those guys that run all the time, Allen, Daniel Jones, Kyler Murray, Anthony Richardson, it seems to me like we are at a point as we've gone toward the athletic quarterback, a guy like Bo Nix or Zach Wilson coming out. One of the reason they get over drafted a little bit or people like them more is because they can run, they can scramble, they can elude the pocket that it used to be like, who is that guy? Ryan Mallet. He's no longer with us, right? Am I right about that tragically? I hope I am. I don't know. I'll look that up. But like that guy as an example, you know, those big like six foot seven inch, 275 pounds. Yeah, exactly. That's gone. I mean, you can't be drafted now if you just have like, remember Zach Mettenberger? I was a big fan out of at LSU. Yeah. Immobile. That is a endangered species. But I think there's something to like, if we, can you have your cake and eat it too? If we're going with the quarterbacks that are going to run more, doesn't that naturally mean passing numbers are going to come down to? And a quarter of the league, if you think about it, if you're talking about Daniels, Hertz, fields, Allen, maybe is on that list or Daniel Jones, little less design carry stuff for him, Kyler Murray, Anthony Richardson, or it's like that type of quarterback that is more of a playmaker with their feet too. Is there something to that? Do you think? 100% again, this, this is not a one size fits all solution as to why it's happening. We know it's happened, right? The numbers, the numbers, as you said, although I will say, I'm just thinking about this now with young quarterbacks. We're saying you can't be a straight pocket passer. They're in a pocket passer really more so like by definition and CJ shroud right now. I mean, you know what I mean? He's an athlete. He can move around, but he basically, you know where he's going to be all the time. I think he's got four rushing attempts through two games. That's about where he's going to be. Yeah, he's scrambles to throw. And he is right now outside of Patrick Mahomes like the number two guy that you would start an organization with at the position. So maybe if you're special enough, it'll work. But I think largely everybody's looking for it's the easy button. The guy who can run, right? Yeah, you look like a genius when you're still able to move the ball despite your offense not working. See week one for Washington, right? The offense did not work. And yet they were in the football game through three quarters because Jay Nainos had 80 some yard scrambling, right? So I think that's a contributing factor. I mean, to me, there's a whole bunch of trends that have kind of culminated in this where passing is down. And doesn't mean that you've stopped passing altogether. It just means that we need to adjust to the idea that the league is different than it was just a couple of years ago. This trend is like a violent regression or pendulum swing in the opposite direction. Whereas if handful of seasons ago, if you looked at, I can't remember, I'm just making up years 2019 numbers versus 2010 numbers, you'd go, Oh my God. And then you go back to the 80s where I'm going, do jump on 10 is the best I ever saw. And you're like, 30, 600 yards and 24 touchdowns. What's exceptional about that? It's just a different time. So we're now in one, like people look at batting averages in baseball with this disdain. And they don't think about the fact that in this era, nobody hits for average. So CJ Abrams, let's just say, if he were to hit 244 at the end of the year, someone would look at that and go, oh my God, Abrams, he can't hit yet 244. That's three points above league batting average. You see what I'm saying? That's an above average batting average because the league hits 241. Well, 30 years ago, the league probably hit 273. So yeah, that was 30 points below that. That's the equivalent now of 210. And so my point is you do have to calibrate for that. The problem I have a little bit is it's a chicken or the egg thing to some extent. Like some of the teams where passing is down are they're down by design. In other words, the commanders, just as an example, through two games while they've thrown it. Okay, I'm not suggesting they haven't done enough through the air in terms of yardage that they're doing it for top half the league production, believe it or not. But if you go into a game going, we're going to run the ball. We're going to design seven runs for Daniels. He's going to scramble another four times or whatever. You're setting yourself up not to go out and throw for 250 or 300. Like the dolphins last year didn't have much of a problem. They threw for 4,700 yards. The lions with Jared Goff and they don't have Tyree kill or Jalen wattle walking through that door. 4,600 passing yards last year. That threw for 4,500. The teams that major in it still have that club in the bag. Two is not leaving the pocket and running. Jared Goff any time soon ain't beating anybody with his feet. That Prescott, it's kind of, you know where he's going to be. He's standing there delivering the football. And I think that that's still, if you want to do it, there's still a way to do it. I just think more teams are going, doesn't have to be that way. There's another way to do it. And I would add one more data point for me. And this again, it's harder to prove. But I think we've now, where the latest innovations have happened, and it's harder for us to see, because it's, you know, not, you're not getting some of the passing yardage with it, is the sophistication of some of these running games. For years, it was the Shanahan train. It was this great mysteries to how to do it. Well, then that kind of spread, you see a lot of these same stretch plays and zone looks and some of the blocking techniques and things that have translated to really, really good running backs used to be this urban legend. Like it was Ryan terrain or a Landis Gary or whoever. Mike Shanahan's going to have a run for a thousand yards. Well, look what you mentioned. I mean, look what they do for God six. I mean, Devin H and runs for nine yards a carry last year. And Raheem Mostard, who nobody wanted, was running for over a thousand yards. Wherever they plug and play runs into clear amounts of space. How sophisticated they are because of the threat of motion, the threat of, you know, some of those plaques and looks to Tyree kill or Jalen Waddle. Mike McDonald's, an offensive genius, not because he gets his playmakers who are really fast, the ball in space, but because these running games are gouging people. We're better now at running the football, especially against these light boxes and looks that are designed to prevent passing. And you're seeing more of it. Well, look at the chiefs. The chiefs are the whole point. This all started with the chiefs, right? Right. As we, as we referenced, but it was a few years ago when everyone decided, okay, Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 50 touchdowns and 41 touchdowns to lead the NFL over the last few years. He just threw for 50 to 100 yards. And it was a second 5000 yard season. What are we going to do with this team? And basically they said, it's going to get a lot harder. You're not going to get 30 40 and 50 at a time. You're going to have to go on these 10 to 12 play drives we talked about. So last year, Patrick Mahomes threw for 1067 fewer yards than one year earlier. Now he played in one fewer game. So if you take his game average of 220 yards, it was like an 800 yard difference for him from 2022 to 2023. His touchdowns went from 41 to 27. So basically, again, with the average, you could say 11 fewer touchdowns for Patrick Mahomes last year to go along with 800 fewer yards. It was a lot more Isaiah Pacheco. It's a physical, run the ball kind of different looking chiefs team. Now they also went from 14 wins to 10 wins, which is not lost on me, right? But they played a style that for them, they felt like they had to to move the ball. And it worked pretty well for defenses for the record. Instead of giving up the home runs and the doubles and the triples, the singles with some penalties with the fumble with the pick, they did a better job to the tune of winning more games against Kansas City and them being a little less prolific. So it's all part of it. There's no doubt in my mind, but at the risk of making too big about two weeks, I think it is last year and this year. Last year, not to this extent, but it's basically a year now in a couple of weeks of seeing traction in this regard. 11 of Mahomes is 18 completion, 61%. We're behind the line of scrimmage this past week in their game in week two, 11 of 18. You know, that's, that's kind of what we're talking about with Daniel. 129 of 151 passing yards, 85% were from yards after the catch. I mean, they're doing kind of the same thing. Cliff Kingsbury's doing with Andy Reed in Kansas City right now. The question for you guys is, why do you think this is happening? And do you think this will sustain all year? Or is this just a couple of weeks start to the season that we'll forget about a couple months down the road with passing being so much harder to come by and the numbers being suppressed? 800-636-1067 is the number on Grant and Danny here on the fan. Plug in a Hyundai EV and the extraordinary happens. It's not just the ultra-fast charging capability and long range in the Ionic 5 and Ionic 6 or the adventure seeking spirit of the Kona Electric or the groundbreaking 601 horsepower Ionic 5N. And it's not just the comfort in knowing that every Hyundai EV is backed by a 10 year, 100,000 mile limited electric battery warranty. Hyundai's EVs transform a low hum into a loud adventure. They bring color to your journey and turn energy into main character energy. So forget everything you thought you knew about EVs and turn the extraordinary into something true. Electrifying. There's joy in every journey. 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