Grant and Danny
Predicting Monday's Headlines For Week 1, Commanders Over/Under For Week 1, Confidence Points Picks
Hey Mike Villeini here. Host a cash to ticket alongside my partner Jim Costa. It's really simple. Are you tired of podcasts claiming there are a bunch of pro betters when they live in their mommy's basement? Are you tired of podcasts that claim they hit 80% of the games? When really they just lose like most of us. Think cash to tickets the spot for you. We're real. We're transparent. We're having a hell of a good time with it. And we sit there and we're there for the sweat with you guys. We're just trying to figure it out just like you. Follow and listen to Cash the Ticket on the free Odyssey app or wherever you get your podcasts. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Whether you love true crime or comedy, celebrity interviews or news, you call the shots on what's in your podcast queue. And guess what? Now you can call them on your auto insurance too with the name of your price tool from Progressive. It works just the way it sounds. You tell Progressive how much you want to pay for car insurance and they'll show you coverage options that fit your budget. Get your quote today at progressive.com to join the over 28 million drivers who trust Progressive. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates price and coverage match limited by state law. Grant and Danny taking you up to 610 and that's pregame tonight. Our first installment of our confidence points picks at 545. We'll get you a preview in that space ball before we get out of here. But it's going to be a football heavy football Friday on G and D the rest of the way. The exclusive sponsor of this shows the law firm Condorian Murah will guide you and your family in the right direction by helping you to draft a will set up a trust or create a health care power of attorney. Schedule a free consultation with their estate planning attorneys at kmlawyers.com and be sure to tell them we sent you so that you can get a discount. That's kmlawyers.com. Let's go around the NFL get you ready for every single game this weekend. And try to predict some headlines on the other side of these tilts got the Packers and the Eagles in the first ever game in Brazil. First time we're playing a Friday night opener in week one in 50 years. 8 15 kickoff tonight. Green Bay just about made the NFC championship game last year came up a bit short. The Eagles completely ran out of steam while seven straight games to end their season after an amazing start. The Eagles are big back. They will look excellent tonight. They will look awesome. They will look like one of the teams that's a legit contender for the NFC and maybe even the whole damn thing. Doesn't mean the Packers won't look good as well. I think the Packers are for real. I think they're going to be a threat. But to me this is the Eagles are big back headline for me. Jordan love the real deal. I think love in Green Bay look very sharp tonight. I never love got paid this off season. And it's just the beginning for him. He turned into being one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL last year. Top three in touchdowns. Top seven in passing yards. And even really get it going until the back nine was the second after season where he really started to feel comfortable. Let's go to game number two. The Pittsburgh Steelers in the Atlanta Falcons. This opens up the one o'clock window on Sunday. Danny in this game. They're playing in Atlanta. The broadcast crew. Let's see who's calling this one. I got him in all listed in front of me. Joe Davis, Greg Olson, Pam Oliver. This is the B team for Fox. That's the really good squad. I think it's stuck with that one. Davis and all over that that might end up being their best team depending on how Tom Brady does on Fox this year. Yeah, on paper right now, their best team to me. This is for the Steelers perspective, Ooh, offense ain't fixed. It's still bad. I don't know what they're going to do. The win this game with, you know, the win games of guts and hope and Mike Tomlin toughness. And for the Falcons, it's have they found an answer? Do they finally have something that's a steadying presence in Kirk Cousins, potentially, with some of their dormant weapons who have been sitting there watching Tyler Algier get too many carries. Is it a cow pits renaissance? Is it Drake London as good as everybody's ever has has thought potentially with a quarterback that can throw it a little bit. Do the Falcons have an answer? I'll say the headline is don't sleep on Tomlin. The Steelers on the road as an underdog have the best record under Mike Tomlin of any team in that time period. He has made people more money as an underdog against the spread than any coach over the last 20 years. He gets points you normally want to roll with Mike Tomlin Kirk Cousins and the Falcons trying to start wanting to know at home. Yeah, Zach hit us with that number. He said, how many reps do you think we got during training camp? I said, I don't know over a thousand. He said about 2,000. And then he said, OTA is about 2,500. So almost 5,000 reps. And I mean, to me, that was comforting, you know, comforting. No, just how much we've been through. You can forget easily how much work we've put in. And we have done a lot to build. And and now it now accounts. Now it's the real thing. And we've got to turn that into a production, you know, in the real thing. And and that's what we've been saying. I've been standing here for weeks, months, talking about how it's just talk right now. And that's all it can be in May and in July, but Cardinals bills, one o'clock kick in Orchard Park in Buffalo. This game on CBS, Tom McCarthy, J. Philly Ross Tucker on the call. What's wrong with the bills? They're going to win the game. They're not going to look as good doing it. They got to go through a little bit of a growing pain right now where they welcome in a new wide receiver. They got to find the production that has gone down to find digs. They're going to make it up by committee. Whether it's Curtis Samuel, Colleen Shakir, add Keon Coleman to that mix. Defensively, they got a little bit worse. I think Arizona is frisky in this one, but it's going to be. Are we sure the bills are good? They are, by the way, but they're going to go through it a little bit in the beginning of the season. Josh Allen still got it. Allen's going to play a big game. They're going to roll get their first win. Headline will be that Allen delivered the goods. But we do get a debut in this game from one of the highest most talented rookies drafted this past year. And that's Marvin Harrison Jr. who's been compared to his Hall of Fame father. And Larry Fitzgerald because of the Cardinals ties. I think I said before, JG told me when I first back here, just be you. They kind of felt all the expectations and comparisons that I may have from that. Larry. So if we want to, he told me to just be used to try to do a good job. Titans are at the Bears for a one o'clock kick in Chicago at Soldier Field. Adam Amine, Mark Sanchez, Christina Pink, Roman, the sidelines for this contest. Headline, congrats on your rookie of the year award, Caleb Williams. He's going to sew it up week one. I'm being hyperbolic to a degree, but he's going to have an incredible debut. He's going to sling it hundreds of yards, so many touchdowns. Few wow plays. He is going to be the talking point Monday morning. Chicago found their quarterback. They have never had a QB throw for 4,000 yards ever. You imagine that, by the way, it's going to happen this year for the first time. I also, you know, I know you and Ryan have talked about the Titan as a frisky playoff type team. I don't see it that way, but I am very interested to see what Will Levis looks like in this game as he tries to solidify himself as the quarterback of the future in Tennessee. This year is kind of make or break for him. Yeah, if he throws the ball really well and he looks like the future, then he'll get more time. If not, they're going to be in the quarterback market with Brian Callahan, not having taken him and coming in this off season as soon as maybe this coming draft. Here's Caleb Williams this week on Looking for a Dub. As long as we get a win, because last time I remembered, you know, the wins are the most important thing. And so as long as we get that win at the end of the day, 100 yards, 400, you know, it's it all becomes the same going to locker room. You celebrate each year, got your 24 hour period to enjoy the win. And then from there, you move on and get ready for the next team. I've been impressed by how he sanded himself. Now him at the podium. He says all the right things. Jaden Daniels like in that regard. He's acquitted himself very well. Now it's time to play football. Let's go to the AFC and the Patriots and the Bengals from Cincinnati. One o'clock kickoff for New England and the Bengals. This game is on CBS Paramount Plus Iron Eagle, Charles Davis, Evan Washburn on the sideline. He is back. He is back. We have gotten burrow back. The reunited triumvirate, the T Higgins, I'm not sure if he's going to play with his hamstring, but your Mark Chase with his weird hold out in, you know, no resolution. It's going to be about Joe Burrow. And it's an underrated story, I think, coming back from this wrist injury that he had, there's not a lot of precedent for guys coming back and being the same. If he is, he won't skip a beat and he'll be back to being the MVP candidate that he's been when he's healthy. The Bengals are a threat to win the whole damn thing. And I think we're going to get a nice soft landing spot here in week one for Burrow and the Bengals. He played 10 games last year. First few games, remember, it was that ankle? Mm hmm. Was the worst right? No, but he also wasn't. It was the worst football he's played in his career is fine. 15 touchdowns, six picks, 66% complete. But it was some of the worst numbers. He's posted as a guy who's a former, you know, all pro CPOY comeback player of the year and all the things that he's done in his career having been to a Super Bowl. Here's Burrow getting ready to try to start one and O against the bad Patriots team. Hi, just like every year, you know, whenever you're coming back from injury, you feel like you got to come back and show that not only you can do what you did prior to the injury, but also that I've gotten better. So I'm excited to go out and show the work that I've put in over the last, you know, eight months. I know the other guys are too. It's been a long time coming. So we're ready to go. Dateline Indianapolis for the Texans and the Colts CBS Paramount plus 1 p.m. kick Andrew Catalan calling the game with Tiki Barber providing analysis. Three men booth, actually, Jason McCordy also on the call in this one, the battle for the AFC South is on whoever wins this game. And I imagine it'll be close. I mean, the line is Texans favored on the road by two and a half points depends on where your book is. But these are the two teams in my view that have the best shot to win the AFC South with Jacksonville kind of lurking, maybe a half tier below. But Indianapolis probably disrespected by a lot of folks because everybody's crowned Houston who on paper is the best team in the division. But there's a lot of toxic turviness if that's even a term in that in that particular division, I expect more of the same. No sophomore slump for Stroud. There's your headline. Stroud plays. Well, Texans are who we thought they were. Maybe another headline. They play big. They beat the Colts. They get to 1 and 0 in Indianapolis on the road, stiking, going back to the drawing board. Let's stay in the AFC with the Jaguars and the dolphins in Miami. Jacksonville, a one o'clock kick at the dolphins in the heat. Some notes on this game. This is interesting to me. I look this up. So when it's 80 plus degrees in Miami, okay, it's going to be for this game. The dolphins are 29 and 14 straight up since 2016, 2017. That visitor sideline, as we talked about earlier, is on in the sun in the heat during the two era, they're 15 and three straight up when the weather is over 80 degrees in Miami. Let's go say that sample includes some terrible Miami teams where the owner was trying to pay the coach to lose. You know, even still Mike McDaniel as the head coach of the team in hot games early in the season, nine and one. This is when they put hay in the barn. I'm all over Miami taking on Jacksonville in this game. I guess we should keep with the trend and tell you on the call for this contest. You've got our boy, Kevin Harlan, with green and Melanie Collins. There's a track meet and you're all invited. Miami rolls in this one. I think they're going to look dominant. It's about what happens from November on to with the leader. Like the hip factor. I've had the effect. No, I've I've I've had the effector since I was in high school, then going into college and then coming to here. That's that's how I've always like viewed myself as going out and competing. Yeah, very, very nice, very cool, calm, collective, but like inside just, you know, just very competitive. And so, you know, a lot of the guys know know how I am and whatnot. But I guess it's just only now showing that I'm becoming a little more vocal. So that's it. Panthers and Saints at one o'clock in Nollands. They're playing at the super dome NFC South football. Chris Myers, Mark Schlerith on the call Jen Hale work in the sideline. The Panthers are still terrible. The Panthers are still terrible. I think they pick first in the draft and this is a great start to that this week. So good. So car. Oh, yes, which I'm gonna say it again. So car. So good. How about that? There it is. There it is. You're going to the play there. Tains is starting job and everyone backs off for a week because he plays okay in the Saints win. Everybody wants to see Spencer Rattler. It's not going to happen early in the season. And especially that could happen next week, although Dave Kanales in Carolina could play spoiler. I'm excited to see if Bryce Young looks any different. Let's go to the Big Apple Dateline New York still in the one o'clock window on Sunday. The Minnesota Vikings game one post Kirk cousins, Sam Darnold at quarterback against Daniel Jones and the New York football Giants. Our guy Kenny Albert with John Vilma on the call Megan Olevy on the sideline turn on the Jets. Justin Jefferson goes for a buck 48 in a Vikings win. The Giants offense remains anemic. Kevin O'Connell is dealing with a Jordan Addison issue this week. Yeah, he's he's doing he's doing better and and he was limited really on Monday and moved around quite well. He'll do a little more today. And then we'd like to kind of progress him hopefully to full to full by the end of the week. But I think Jordan's in a good spot and feels I feel pretty good about him making the game. We are on to the four o'clock game starting with the Vegas Raiders and the LA Chargers in the AFC West. I'm not sure why this is getting the 18 treatment in the AFC, Jim Nance, Tony Romo, Tracy Wolfson on the call. I guess they want in on the Jim Harbaugh best. He has a chance to get off to one and O start against the bad Raiders team. The Harbaugh era is off to a rowing start ground and pound. This is going to be a wrestling match Greco Roman style. If they could not have receivers, I think they would get might line up with 11 offensive lineman just to see just to push you around. That's how it's going to go. This is going to be a low scoring affair, but I think the Chargers get off to one and O start my headline for this game Danny. No preseason. No problem for Justin Herbert. As the Chargers get a win, this was Herbert who has been dealing with that foot problem. I think it's a great opportunity. You know, that's that's what's so fun about football is to go out there and make something happen. And we know how last year went and we're well aware of where we went. And you know how we got here. But we've got to learn from it. You got to move on and you got to attack this next year and you got to know that you got the confidence you put in the work and you do everything you can during the week. So you go out there on Sunday and you play fast, you play free. And you know, I think coach Harbaugh has done a great job of communicating that with everyone and just going up to practice and seeing that seeing guys fly around has definitely been a lot of fun. That might be the most words I've ever heard Justin Herbert say, by the way, calm down, Justin. I mean, what are you doing there, buddy? The energy is overwhelming. Relax. Just a little bit of Bronco Seahawks. Let's go to Seattle. It's radio. We could do that. Denver at 405 is taking on a Seattle on the road. I don't know if you've heard this. This is a loud stadium. Is it supposedly in Seattle, the stadium can get loud. Something about 12s. Oh, 12s. Yeah, not to be confused with 11s or 13s. I'm at 12. I'm also a 12. Spiro Ditas, Adam Archiletta. You don't say his name twice around these parts without getting anything thrown at the personal protector for Spiro Ditas on the sideline, a Dee Dee Kinkwabala. Not syllables there. Yeah. But that's we know her. Yeah. She hasn't been on in a long time. She got mad at you about she did. I was going to say name name the sideline reporter that hates my guts. I don't think she I'm not trying to be a jerk. I don't think she would know you. Well, that's fair. That's actually fair. Because I mean, yeah, it's been say she hates you is like someone actively Danny Reid. Yeah. She's like, I hate that guy. Yeah. But if you were like, he's the guy to do this, this, this, this, and then she's like, Oh, that guy. Yeah, I don't like him. And this is pre-grant and Danny. This is holding in Danny. What happened again? So there was a story that the NFL was doing this like, Hey, we're going to have a woman kicker. They had these big tryout with like several women that were going to go try out to kick women soccer players. I can't remember who it was, but they were like, um, it was like after the Katie Anita, Anita, whatever it was kicking in Colorado for a minute or something. They were doing this big tryout. Right. They, they organized it and they did this big, they wanted publicity for it or whatever. So a DD King Kamala working in front of a network did a story about it and was like, yeah, this is a little bit of a farce. This isn't particularly great or something to that effect. Okay. And I'm going, help me understand this. The NFL does it. The NFL network done reports on it and says, this isn't great. But how are we, what are we as fans supposed to be doing? Like, how do we take it seriously? And she took it as that as if I was insulting her reporting as if I was like saying that she's on the take or that she's unduly influenced by Goodell in the NFL or some kind of nonsense, which I didn't mean at all. I was just simply saying, me as a consumer, just tell me what I was supposed to be doing. I just, I want to be on the right side where no one's mad at me. I like football. It's probably a misunderstanding. It was, but she took it very personally. I met her. She's very nice. She's, she seems wonderful. I read her when she was the Wall Street Journal. I told her so, but she was really upset basically. Don't call us again. I know she didn't. 100% she dropped it. Don't call me. Thank you very much. The time basically was very gruff and I after the show felt terrible about it. I tried to reach out and say, hey, listen, this I did not mean to, you know, the little you or impunity reporting or anything like that. I was simply trying to say something and I came out badly. I'm so super sorry. And she was like dying a fire. Wow. Not exactly. I mean, that was way more than I thought we were getting. I know. I thought it was, I did not know that was the full story. Yeah. That's a lot. She's very nice. Yeah. From the little experience I have. I'm nice. Bronco Seahawks. My headline here, I will say Seattle, Nick's is Denver. Seahawks are going to start 1 and 0. I think bonyx will be okay this year, but that's a tough environment to make your debut in because I don't know if you guys have heard this, but it's allowed. Headline. Can we go to McDonald's? Mike McDonald gets off to a 1 and 0 start there in Seattle. Cowboys Browns in Cleveland. You might have heard of the guy on the call of this one. Kevin Burkhardt working with Tom Brady. Here we go. First ever game. And it's not just one, but two sideline reporters on that eight crew. Aaron Andrews and Tom Rinaldi on the field. Cleveland still has a quarterback problem. There's your headline. Cowboys want to know. GM Andrew Barry is excited for the fans to see the new stadium. Alright now, admit it. Honey and Bank field has a nice ring to it, doesn't it? Right? Right. Right. I'll tell you what, I cannot wait until our fans fill up the stadium full capacity and we're rocking this Sunday against the Dallas Cowboys because it's such a competitive and home field advantage for us. And I just can't wait to see what it looks like in these prime time atmosphere. So again, I just want to congratulate everyone in terms of this new and hopefully long and enduring partnership. I'm a big Andrew Barry guy. I will say that. He's the guy that traded for Deshawn Watson though, just so we're all in the same page. Couple of things in there. He said a phrase, new, stud, stud, stud stadium. What is that? I don't know what that meant. What's that? I don't know. Okay. I didn't even pick up. Do we have to dump it? Was that a curse word? Is that real? No, we're allowed to. I think people are allowed to say it. We just can't. New, new, new stadium. We just aren't allowed to do it. I see. Yeah. I see. It's one of those things like you've heard adults talking about it. Like your parents probably do it, but you can't do it. Yeah, you can't do it. Right? Not you. Not only mommy, daddy speak that way. Yeah. And then he said another phrase. I'm like, that's okay. I'm sure that's a thing. Home field advantage. Like, okay, buddy, right? Whatever you say. It's not real Sunday night football, the Rams and the Lions in Detroit rematch of playoff football last year. This is your Sunday night crew on national TV. Mike Turico, Chris Collinsworth. It's Matt Stafford back in Detroit against the Lions. Jared Goff taking on his former team, the L.A. Rams game of the weekend. This is going to be a fast and furious shootout. There are going to be so many points scored. It's the second highest over under the week at 49 and a half, I believe. I cannot wait for this game. The Lions triumph in a close one. I'm going to say my headline is when Matt Stafford plays, the Rams are a Super Bowl contender. Dan Campbell and the Lions ready to go. Really, we kind of went back to what we do. I told the guys, man, we are identities the most important thing and we have to reestablish our identity and really to get back to where we were at and then surpass that, we got to go back to work and it's got to be all the little things, the details, the resiliency. I think more than anything, it's been about that. And then these new guys, the rookies that we've drafted, the free agents, them acclimating to what we do and what we're about. And so, look, it's the step in the right direction so far, what's the manager at that Applebee's know about getting the lines ready for football? That's what I want to know. There you go. Grant and Danny with you on the fan. That is your full slate. Every game predicted in the headlines come Monday. Speaking of predictions, let's go through some props on commanders players against the box and go over or under projected totals. We'll do that next on the fan. Hey, Mike Villetti here, host a cash to ticket alongside my partner, Jim Costa. It's really simple. Are you tired of podcast claiming there are a bunch of pro betters when they live in their mommy's basement? Are you tired of podcast that claim they hit 80% of the games? When really, they just lose like most of us. Think cash to tickets the spot for you. We're real, we're transparent, we're having a hell of a good time with it. And we sit there and we're there for the sweat with you guys. We're just trying to figure it out just like you. Follow and listen to Cash the Ticket on the free Odyssey app or wherever you get your podcasts. We're taking you up to six, 10 on Grant and Danny on the fan. We'll get you a full preview of the gnats and the pirates before we get out of here right at the end of the show. If you've missed any part of G and D today, including a chock full beltway blitz or TJ Reeves, the Buck sideline reporter who up to scout the opponent, you'll be able to podcast everything when we're done at the fan DC dot com or grant and Danny dot com slash audio. We'll make our picks going into the weekend. Our confidence points picks coming up in 15 minutes at 5 45. But right now, let's look at the projected totals individual player props via Fandall because I'm a Fandall guy for the commanders in the bucks this weekend and play a little over under. So Daris, let's run through some of the prop totals and see how we're viewing this game script. Our friends at Fandall have Jaden Daniels passing yard total set at two 18 and a half over under. So this could be an over for one of two reasons. If this becomes a shootout like everybody's predicting, then he goes over to 18 or if the game script suggests that Washington's chasing and they're throwing a lot because they're behind to get pretty easily get over to 18. I actually think they're going to be in this game. They're going to be able to run the ball and stay balanced. I think it's going to be pretty close. So for that reason, I'll say slight under, I'm going to say like two 10 maybe through the air. I also we'll see if I'm loud wrong about this. I've been talking about this for weeks. I think it's going to run a lot. Maybe it's not Lamar Jackson week one last night going 16 for a bill 20 or something. But I do think it could be like seven eight carries for 70 to 90 yards tomorrow. So add that to the 210. It's kind of a 300 yard all purpose day. But I'll say under the that number under. I think Tampa Bay's defense is good. I think their secondary is good. I think the game plan is to limit throwing. And they're going to try to muck this up and and do a little more grounded pound. You said you think Jayden's going to run a lot. Got Jayden Daniels at 39 and a half rushing yards over or under. I like the over on that in the first half. They're there. I think it's too much. But I know grants all in favor of it. I think they're going to run Jayden Daniels a ton. And I think he goes way over that. I don't know if it's quite Lamar Jackson buck 22 on 16 carries. But I think we're willing to see it early and often. Have you changed your prediction of how much he'll run based on the preseason? Or have you always said that you just don't want him to run? Not that you don't think he's going to run more the second one. So I'm looking at the lack of weaponry, especially on the outside. They don't really seem interested in changing that looked at the preseason and kind of the way their personnel's lining up when I'm going, they're going to run that dude a lot. I think that's my my paradigm going to go into the season. Over, loud over. It's going to be over a lot in this category until the betting market catches up with kind of what they want to do. In fact, if it's under that, I'll be shocked. Like if he just stands in the pocket with time and makes throws and doesn't leave, I think he's going to look to leave the pocket at times. If there's early pressure, he's going to try to avoid sacks that way. That's what he did a lot of time, collegiately, which isn't to say he can't throw the ball well or that he isn't going to be a throw first quarterback eventually. But I just think early in his career, this is the answer key for him. You know, this is his the cape for Superman. He'll go over that. Jaden has some options in the backfield. Let's start with the first one. Brian Robinson, they have him at 42 and a half rushing yards over that. As I said, they'll be balanced. They'll be in the game. They're going to be able to run it a lot. I think they're going to run more this year in general than people think. Everyone talks about Kingsbury with the air raid. I call it the horizontal raid, but they ran the ball more with Patrick Conner. James Conner? James Conner. Who's Patrick Conner? Was that the full back from the from the jets that where they called him the tournament? No, it was John Conner. That's John. I don't know who Patrick Conner is. Patrick Bateman from American Psycho. I don't know. James Conner for the Cardinals ran it a lot more than people think when you look back at like when he was healthy and rolling, P-Rob's going to be a thumper all season long. I think he could go for 75 or more in this game if he runs at the 16 to 18 times that I think he's going to. So give me the over on B-Rob. Over on and I'm a little bit annoyed about it. I want more Echler. I want I want B-Rob to be the change of pace, but I'm not going to get it that way. They're going to go to wait too often. They're going to try to run the dang football. Chris Russell will be pleased. The rest of us that like points and wins and offense will not be. Danny, you want more Echler? You're going to get more Echler. 27 and a half rushing yards for Austin Eckler over under. Under, unfortunately. And I think that's going to change the season goes. They're going to realize, no, this actually is still a weapon. But I think early, he's going to be a it's third down. Now he should trot onto the field and be in there for passing downs. I don't think they're going to use him right early. I think that'll grow as the season progresses. He ran a good bit in the preseason. Remember when they would come out with those early drives and they ran at like nine out of 12 plays on the one long drive and he had three of them, I think. I'll say over that, not by a lot. I think he gets six carries for, you know, 28 yards or something like that. I'll say over minimally. Well, let's get to the receiving props wide receiver one in everybody's heart around here, Terry McLaurin, 60 and a half receiving yards. That is an over for Terry. He's the only guy they got. Now Tampa Bay is going to do as much as they can to keep him from getting going and getting off and having a ham sandwich. But I think it's going to be like seven for 70. This is the new Terry McLaurin in a sense last year, where it was a lot of catches, not a lot of yards, seven for 63. You know, that kind of thing. I think it's going to be like a 10 11 target, six or seven catch 65 to 80 yard kind of day for him. So I'll say over he's in the seventies, low eighties, but it's not going to be a big explosive 100 yard game in my opinion. You said it and that's why I'm going in a different direction. He's the only guy they got. That's why it's under Tampa knows that too. Tampa is very aware of where 17 is and is going to be. It's going to be a six for 55 kind of a day. We're going to be frustrated. There's not going to be enough air in the air rate here early on for my taste. Zach hurts. They have them at 24 and a half on fan delivery, receiving yards. This is one of my favorite props of the weekend of in real life. I have actually bet on this prop. Zach hurts is going over that a healthy Zach hurts is going to be heavily featured and heavily involved. As the year goes on, he will not be healthy and he will probably do less. But in this game, I think there's a chance he leads them and catches leads them in receiving yards. If you told me right now, he goes like seven for 76. Okay. There's there's an 18 yard catch down the seam at some point. I believe that. So that is a very, very firm over for me. I have a hammer in my hand and there's a nail and it is the nail of the overage. I am slamming the over on this. I think he's, you know, like six for 38. I think he is their most second, maybe first or second most targeted guy. I grew with everything granted said early in the season. Zach hurts will be available. And as the season progresses less so this one seems a little low, Austin Echler at 18 and a half receiving yards. Again, hammering the over. This is where the offense is going through. It's going to be less McCorn, less Noa Brown, less Diami Brown, maybe some is the case around the line of scrimmage. Think about will Lamar Jackson was doing last night flicking the ball as a flowers or things like that. But I think the passing game will run through Earth's and Echler. So I think Echler goes over that total. I'll say over as well. Same reason I felt that way about Zach hurts. I just think that we're going to get to a point where there's some pass rush. Jaden Daniels is ball out. First that that's kind of the mindset they're going to get in his ear and say, Hey, let's not take hits. Let's not take sacks. You saw the quick game in the preseason. It's time to throw was quicker in the preseason than any quarterbacks in the NFL last year. So not a whole lot to add other than the security valve that the checkdown option, the blanket. Sorry. I mean, it's going to be a lot of Austin Echler and I'm happy about it. This one seems low too, but I guess it's a little tricky. Brian Robinson, eight and a half receiving yards over on that one as well. He can catch the ball. And I think that's all going to take one screen or, you know, a couple of receptions. I do think he's involved. Maybe not to the degree of of not, let me rephrase that, not to the degree that Echler is going to be involved in the past game, but they'll be just enough. Brian Robbins, where I think he goes over that total. That's one catch that, you know, with a good block in front of you. Yeah. So I'll go over that for sure. One catch, 15 yards, two catches, 12 yards, something like that. Yeah, give me a be Rob over. Again, I think it's a lot of short, safe, quick passes. Let's get a quick feel for how you guys feel about the commander's defense going in this game. Baker Mayfield's passing prop is set at two 45 and a half over. I think I'll do that middle of the second quarter. That's a bad bit. I'm doing it. It's over though. I'll say two 45 and a half. I kind of want to go under, honestly. Yeah, I'll go under. I'll say throws for like two 35, two 40 and that they have enough success running the football as well that they're able to be balanced. You know, maybe it's a you're leading rusher has 75 or something and you're able to keep it on the ground, too. But I don't think he needs to come out and throw for three bills for them to win. Speaking of running the ball, they have Rashad White. They're starting running back at 57 and a half rushing yards over for a shot away. He will be right around, like I said, mid 70s, low 80s, perhaps they'll also get him some touches second half. If they're ahead, trying to salt the game away that there's a game script that works for his favor. But remember last year, and I know it's a different defense and different coaching and all that, but they were good for kind of one back breaking long run. It felt like that they would give up games. I mean, it's the same group, essentially, in the interior of Johnny Newton's not playing. So I'll say over that under, I think they sling it and they're not a very good running team. So I think white goes under total yards will be pretty significant for white because he catches passes, but I don't think they run it effectively and they'll have too much access to the air. I'm going to assume you guys are both going to take the over on Mike Evans. So I'm going to skip him. Let's go to Chris Godwin. They have set set at 57 and a half over. I think he goes off. I think it's in the 70s. Yeah, you can't name a bucks receiver who I wouldn't go over with because I think they're going to throw it to three or four guys. All of them are going to be, you know, able to put up those two 50 or so for Baker Mayfield on the outside against Washington's corners. All right. Next, our first installment of 2024 confidence point picks in week one. It's not about finishing first. It's about not finishing last. This is the fan. I'm going to go ahead and get it. I'm going to go ahead and get it. I'm going to go ahead. Confidence points picks a annual NFL season staple on G and D over the years. We've had championships one. Ryan is a two time defending champion. I've won the first year. Nobody would know or remember who cares. Winning doesn't get you anything. I want it. I just don't want to lose. That's the whole name of the game. So as we get ready for our fourth year of confidence points picks here on Grant and Danny and Ryan tries to go for a three-peat. It is time to give you our five four three two and one point plays. The way this works is we got to pick five NFL games full slate to choose from. We can pick the same games. That's okay. You've got to assign points to each game based on how sure you are. This is of course against the spread. Now we don't yet know our punishment. So I think at some point we got to get together on that the next week or two try to figure out what the punishment is. This year last year's loser was Daris. He's got to go take a photo shoot that we have scheduled coming up here in the early fall where he's going to be in a towel with a speedo and all kinds of weird pictures that are going to be absolutely terrible at a local mall that we've set him up at. And those pictures will be available for you guys. Don't worry in the very near future. With that said, Daris, the only Daris account. What were you saying Daris? You look so salty back then. I just I just can't have photos of me bare-chested on the internet. I just can't. There's just no way. They won't be on the internet. Where else would they be? Just on Twitter. Just online. Twitter, Instagram. Online. Online. Not on the internet. Just online. All right. So we will go in the order of last year's standings, which I believe would be you, Ryan, then me, then Danny, then Daris. Five point play. My five point play. I have the Miami Dolphins minus three and a half GP. We talked about this a lot earlier today before the show. But even then, I just think the dolphins are a lot better football team. It's gonna be hot down in Miami. I got the dolphins winning big. Yeah. I love the dolphins in this spot. They're my five point play as well. Again, to a 15 and three straight up McDaniel nine and one straight up in their era's 80 plus degrees early season. Miami hasn't finished a season below 500 against the spread at home since 2015 or 39 23 and three since 2016. So give me the dolphins laying three and a half. The Carolina Panthers stink New Orleans will cover the three and a half. That's my five point play. I have the New England Patriots stinking. So I have the big number of minus eight for Cincinnati. You guys are going with the heavy hitters against the bad teams. I like that strategy. Four point play. My four point play. The Detroit lines minus four and a half going up against the Rams. Kind of cool nugget here. Matt Stafford's got a losing record at Ford Field and then is with a Hall of Fame wide receiver. I, he does not have that Hall of Fame wide receiver anymore. I'm taking Jared golf in the points at home on Sunday night football. Steelers plus three and a half. Is Mike Tomlin an underdog? Uh huh. Is he catching points then? Yes. Oh, then I bet on the Steelers plus three and a half. They're taking on the Falcons and Atlanta new quarterback, new coach, a lot of new faces, a lot they're trying to figure out. Kyle Pitts is banged up. I'm not crowning Atlanta just yet. Derrick's really covered it. The Patriots also suck since daddy minus eight. Uh, I don't think the Broncos are quite ready for, uh, the 12s or loom and field or whatever you want to call that loud stadium up there. Uh, so yeah, Seattle minus five and a half over Broncos over the Broncos three point place. Step back behind the arc. Corey Kispert. Let it rain. My three point play is the Denver Broncos plus five and a half. You guys sleep on this a little bit. Oregon is one of the loudest stadiums in college football. So Bo Nix, he has played in tough environments before. He's played in big time games. I think Bo Nix is going to be very good this season. I've got the Broncos winning on the road. Got he played for Oregon. Yeah, I know. He played for Oregon. So now he's going to the loudest stadium where they're going to be yelling at him. I mean, yeah, he played in plenty of loud. A lot of guys did play a lot of courses. Of course, I've seen plenty of quarterback to Seattle and win. Don't try to change his mind. All right. That's fine. Dallas plus two and a half. The Cowboys and the Browns. Two and a half points to the team that I think's better anyway. I think they have the number wrong. The Cowboys should win straight up plus two and a half for Dallas. Dolphins minus three and a half at home. This is not a November cold weather game. It's a warm weather game. This one's a little bit funky to me. I'm not sure why the line is in a little bit bigger. Maybe the people are hiring Jacksonville than I am. I think Jacksonville is a aggressive mediocre. And I think Miami will roll. Yeah. I got the same pick. I'm not even going to elaborate. Same pick. Miami minus three and a half. Bonnie's at the rim. Two point play. My two point play at Dallas plus two and a half for the same reasons as Grant said. And I mean, I like this. I think Dallas wins outright. So it was a pretty easy pick. Got to say me and Claire, a couple of guys who were gunning for a title last year, seeing things eye to eye. Meanwhile, Daris and Danny, couple of guys who were gunning to not have a photo shoot, seeing things eye to eye. All right. Two point play. I'm seeing it with the, uh, the photo shooters Cincinnati minus eight here. You got to go with the good team playing the terrible team. I don't have a lot of confidence in a huge cover because T Higgins might miss the game. He's now questionable. We still don't know if Jamar Chase is going to play. I don't know if they light it up, but I do know the Patriots are an abysmal outfit. So let's go Cincinnati to lay eight. Tampa minus three and a half, uh, talking about a good team playing a team that ain't ready yet. Uh, this is one. The matchup is, I don't think very good for Washington. I think Tampa wins by a touchdown statement game for CJ Stroud and the boys. I got Houston covering that minus two and a half winning outright and Indianapolis on the road. Got to hit your free throws, boys. These one pointers will add up at the end of the year. Clary, my one point play of Carolina plus three and a half on the road in New Orleans. I don't think the Panthers will be as bad as people think. And I think the Saints will be a lot worse than people think. I've got the Panthers covering. Not sure if they would. In four weeks, I wouldn't feel this way, but with San Francisco playing a game, I you Trent Williams, having missed the entire preseason, pretty edit terrible couple of preseason games as well, the jets plus four and a half on the road, even if they lose by a field goal, your boys a winner, uh, I'll take the jets plus four and a half. I don't trust the Falcons to not be fully unfalcony and it's Pittsburgh and it's Tomlin, road dog, et cetera, et cetera, Pittsburgh was three and a half. I think we get our first signs of the Buffalo regression this weekend. I don't, I think Buffalo will still win, but I got Arizona covering that plus six and a half in Buffalo. Confidence points picks. Darrus makes a graphic for you. We posted so you could track throughout Sunday, uh, add a little spice and fun to the weekend. And again, the punishments are always terrible. Uh, so that's really the whole point. It's really the point. Ryan's gotten nothing for winning the last couple of years. I got nothing for winning three seasons ago, but as we go into year four here, you just don't finish last. That's the whole goal, boys, so that you don't have to do that photo shoot. What, what picture do you want Darrus to do? The, the, the super sexy one, like the, the boo, the boo doar one. Oh, you want them in like, doesn't he have to do that? Like some kind of sexy. Yeah. There's leopard. There's lion stuff. Grant and Danny on the fan are predictions for commander's bucks next. 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