Grant and Danny
Over/Under 6.5 Wins For The Commanders In 2024, What Do We Think?
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I want to take the temperature of our listening audience on this via you guys at 800-636-1067-800-636-1067. Would you bet on the commanders to go over or under six and a half when it's over but slight for me? I've got them right at seven. I think this is probably the range they should be in, which again is why, as our buddy Chris Russell says, the boys in Vegas, just it's a group of three or four people in Vegas, just these boys get them around deciding these types of odds. I was sitting next to Russell at Josh Harris's press conference last weekend over at the X and Harris said at one point, like, you know, I remember he goes, I'll leave that to the guys in Vegas. Exactly. He's like, I'll leave that to the folks out in Vegas or whatever. And I literally, as Josh Harris is talking in the second row, turn around to Russell who's right behind me and I go, the boys in Vegas. The boys in Vegas. Yeah. But that's what that's right where they belong, I think, both in terms of turning over the roster in terms of new regimes. New quarterback, all these types of things. There is not a ton of precedent for a team that just jump up and win nine or 10 games. Our I line is ruined because of what CJ Stroud, the remarkable turnaround that Houston endured last year. But what's far more typical is incremental improvement. Plus, I forget the exact number. I don't have it in front of me. I was trying to look it up real quick from more and sharp. They have one of the more difficult schedules in the NFL. And as you start to, you know, tally it up here, you're not in terms of the gimmies, in terms of how dominant they're going to be. I think they'll be competitive in every game. But it feels like that six or seven win plateau to me. So I'd probably say seven. The other nugget I would offer is from the folks at the SPN who did that very like nerdy statistical breakdown, Mike Clane company, they have a win probability of north of 50% and only one game. And that's a team that they haven't beat very much at all over the last handful of seasons in the Giants. So it doesn't mean that you, you lose every one of those games where you're a 34% favored or a 48% favored, et cetera. But it just means just on paper. So when you add it all up, I don't see the banner season. A lot of folks are talking about in terms of nine or 10 wins. I'm okay with that, by the way, I've got them right in that seven win range. So I would take the over with some hesitation, 12 easiest schedule in the NFL via sharp analytics. Obviously, there are other metrics you can find. Most places have them somewhere between fifth and sixth easiest to about 10th. I think sharp actually is one of the least favorable toward Washington schedule. And he's got him still top 12. So schedule should not be an issue at all. You know how I do my strength of schedule bit. I don't do it the way a lot of people do where they look at the teams based on last year. The way I look at strength of schedule is quarterbacks that are on your schedule. You know, what QBs do you actually play? That's what I care about. Now that can change too with injuries. And generally, it only gets easier. It doesn't get a lot harder because it's not like teams are going out and adding at the quarterback position. But if you look at their early season schedule, I think they've got to start pretty quickly. You know, they play the bucks and the Giants in weeks one and two. I think both of those games are winnable. And I could actually see them being two and O going to Cincinnati from Monday night football. But I know that if they're going to be over six and a half, they probably have to have one of those two. I don't like the idea of going to go into the Bengals for a prime time game on the road. That's going to be a difficult place to play. You then play the Cardinals through four games. You should be two and two. You know, if you're not at least one in three, you're in big, big trouble. But the Giants and Cardinals games are going to be toss up type games. I know the Cardinals is on the road, but you could very easily be 500 through four games. Then you've got the Panthers, the Bears and the Giants in a stretch right around Halloween. You get one of those at least maybe two of those. But if you just run through it, I mean, it's the quarterback schedule includes Will Levis, Derek Carr, Daniel Jones twice hurts. The way he played last year is is no insurmountable task. They almost be Philly twice. DeShawn Watson has not been good. They have Kyler Murray of Arizona, Baker Mayfield of Tampa Bay. So it's just, it's not a arduous schedule in that regard. So I'm going over as well, Danny. I'm a little more bullish maybe in the over than you are too. Like seven sounds about right, but I wouldn't be surprised if they're able to win eight or if Jayden Daniels is really, really good if they got to nine. But we're in lockstep in saying over six and a half, which is a little scary. Yeah. I mean, they're in the range among the bottom five or six, maybe even seven teams in the NFL in terms of win totals, right? Like there's a couple that are four and a half. I think there's a couple that are five and a half and a couple of other that around six, six and a half depends on your sports book and depends on where you're looking. But so the world isn't, isn't terribly bullish. And I totally get your, your, you know, quarterback approach like looking at it that way. That's as good a way to do it as any because as you said, I don't know any. Well, as Joseph said, rightly, we're basically a lot of it in the last year. I'm trying to also put in what I think a team is going to be. But again, that's the beauty of this league is you think you've got somebody figured out, and then they're totally different. How many people thought Houston tenants at 10 and seven last year with rookie of the year division winner? How many people, you know, were 100% sure that, you know, Detroit would be within a point or two away of winning the NFC title or, you know, the green baby will go on the run that they did. There's a million different things that we try to predict and we can't. The Philadelphia would start 10 and one and fall apart. You don't know when you play a team, the old Chan had axiom. But to me on paper, if they're explosive and high ceiling enough to win some of these games that, you know, just, if it got high scoring at times in the last couple of seasons, they had no chance for the most part, right? Except maybe with the exception of one of those Philly games or the Broncos going back and forth. But if you're like playing in one of those high level NFL games, it was like, okay, you're going to leave this team in, in, in a distant review. If they've got the wherewithal, maybe to win a couple of those games, because to your point, Daniels is doing something explosive and you steal one against, I don't know, Philadelphia on the road there, then you can kind of start to creep up that total a little bit to me. I mean, I just, you don't have to play my homes, you know, that they do have to deal with Jackson and Burrow, but no Allen Herbert Stafford. You know, last year you played the Jets didn't have to deal with Rogers, but would have, it's probably a middle of the pack quarterback schedule if you do it that way. Protect your vehicle's engine with a full synthetic oil change and save with mobile one at O'Reilly Auto Parts purchase five quarts of mobile one full synthetic motor oil and receive a $10 O'Reilly gift card after rebates, see store for details. 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