Grant and Danny

Mike Clay's Projections For Washington, Is This Realistic For Washington?, John Ridgeway Traded

8.28.24 Hour 2

1:00- Mike Clay for ESPN did not have kind projections for the Washington Commanders... Do we agree?

20:15- Do you agree with the sense that we should lower expectations for the Commanders?

32:35- Commanders DT John Ridgeway has been traded to the Saints.

Broadcast on:: 28 Aug 2024
Audio Format:: other

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So when you get a hunch in the middle of the game, you can check out the latest stats, view live play-by-play, and so much more on the same page where you place your bets. You'll get started with $200 in bonus bets guaranteed when you place your first $5 bet. That's Fandal.com/sportsfan. Never waste a hunch and make every moment more with Fandal, an official sports book partner of the NFL. It must be 21 plus and present in Colorado. First online real money weights are only $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued is now withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandal.com. Gambling problem, call 1-800-522-4700. We're granting Danny. This is the fan. Thanks for listening all over DC on 106-7 and Enrichment. AM910 FM 11051. You can watch us on the 1067 the fan YouTube page. We are streaming live and high death. The exclusive sponsor of this shows the law firm Condorian Murad. They'll guide you and your family in the right direction. They'll help you to draft a well set up a trust, create a health care power of attorney. Schedule a free consultation where there are state planning attorneys at kmloyers.com. Be sure to tell them we sent you. You'll get a discount that's kmloyers.com. Wanted to get into some numbers you found Danny from Mike Clay who provides projections for just about every single individual offensive player in the league and for teams. Needless to say, he's not very high on the commanders, but we wanted to see where maybe he's too low on the locals. Yeah, so I'm a Mike Clay fan. So when you're in this business, you're going to get stuff wrong. Somebody, you know, exceed something or doesn't come close to it and it's ripe for ridicule, but he's using every bit of data for, you know, trying to account for everything from development to strength of schedule to, you know, every predictive measure you can come up with to try to give you an analysis of how strong or weak a given team or player or kind of his expectations are. And it is not very kind for Washington. I'll just go through a couple of these things. Jane Daniels, this is or is his commander's projections. Okay, Daniels, 334 50 terms of yardage, 15 touchdowns, 14 picks sacked 41 times and ends up with 587 rush yards and five touchdowns. Ooh, yeah, tough. I mean, that would be a really bad year. I'd say disappointing season. Brian Robinson 200 carries, which is what he's been at over the last a couple seasons to give or take. Obviously, a lot of reasons for that. 841 yards, five touchdowns, Austin Echler 480 on the ground and 434 through the air. So not even achieving 1000 total yards out of the backfield. That I think that would be disappointing for some. I don't know where you are on your prognostications for him, but that catch totals there. He does. Robinson 35 Echler 49. That's the low end of what I would hope that I think Echler could catch 60, maybe even a JD McKissick Larry centers like 70 balls. That's what I think because I think there's not much else. So I think he's going to catch the football. I think they're going to get that going a lot. McClellan, as you'd expect, 74 catches just over 1000 yards, 1000 12 is what he's got with only three touchdowns. So McClellan traditionally doesn't score a lot of touchdowns for whatever reason. He's been in that mid 70s, just over 1000 yard thing with offense and stroke with bet with bad offenses, bad quarterbacks, whatever. So that kind of falls in line. And I kind of went and looked at some other data points, just for example, other teams. And it's, it's similar for, you know, some of the groups that we would expect to struggle, right? Like the Giants have similar type numbers offensively. Look at, you know, somebody that's probably better Pittsburgh similar numbers for George Pickens, for example, he's talking about clays projections. Yes. Okay. Right. Going through all those. And you could go up and down, and I won't bore everybody with the rest of the numbers. But the second leading receiver, he's got Luke McCaffrey, 41 catches for 482 yards. Downby Brown only 27 catches, Zacchaeus only 27 catches, not much between them. So you could, you would combine two or three guys and get a number two receiver. Yeah. So and I think that's very plausible. Honestly, we've talked about this. I don't necessarily think they've got a receiver on their roster, not named McClorn, who's going to catch 50 bowls or go for 600 plus yards or something like that. I would be stunned if Zacchaeus did it. He caught 10 passes last year. I'd be really surprised if Brown did it, who caught 12 or something, 12 passes the last three years, 12 last year. That's just not happening. I don't think a 60 for 650 guy or something is walking through that door. But it also doesn't have to be that way. If it hurts his healthy, I think he's going to be number two in catches and yards. And I think he's actually going to have a big year. Like that's a guy I'd buy stock in fantasy wise, to be honest. If you're in this area, the problem with that is he just never stays healthy. But if you were to tell me he played 15 games, I think people will be shocked around the country how frequently they utilize him because Kingsbury knows him, brought him over from Arizona. Big part of the offense there at one point, you saw him catch 15 balls in a game here years ago at the peak of his powers. Like that's a guy that's just going to be a volume shooter, so to speak. But when he gets hurt, it's that's really and if he gets hurt, hopefully he doesn't. But when that happens and he's not available, now what? That's where I worry. That's a lot of Echler, some Robinson. Now it's the Zacchaeus, the Ami Brown show. Maybe that's where Luke McCaffrey in the slot comes into play, providing some size without Earth's. That's when I start to get a little concerned. So by way of reference, again, just this is I'm just passing on the information everybody. He's got them last in the league in offensive touchdown. So last in the league and scoring presumably 27th in yards, 27th in completions, high and right terms of rushing attempts. I think he sort of sees what maybe some of us here do where this is how they're going to they're going to major in things and try not to put too much on Daniels's plate early on. Defensively, they'll improve some but still be in the in the upper 20s in terms of ranking. Beyond that, he is wind probability stat. Now that's going to change week to week, right? This is before the season starts. This is assuming everybody's health. Yeah. When you start to put more info into the algorithm, it's going to change massively. You play Philadelphia without Jalen Hertz and AJ Brown because they both, you know, slipped on an oil slick. Okay. Well, it's a different outcome potentially, right? But looking at the wind probability as of now, they have it above 50% wind probability for one game currently on their schedule. Whereas you look at San Francisco, who has 17, you look at teams that are probably competing with Super Bowls, the lowest they'll have is like one game that's more of a toss up, right? The Jets, for example, I think have one and that's a week one game against somebody really good that they play at the outset. I can't remember where they play, but week one, yeah, the Jets have the Chiefs. Yeah, Jets, that's the only game they're not wind probability favorite. Yeah, so to speak, right? So basically the two games with the Giants, one's a toss up and one at home, the second game of the year, they are at a higher than a coin toss in terms of wind probability. It doesn't mean that you go two and 15 or whatever. I don't think anybody's saying that. You win games you're not supposed to win all the time. It's the league. It's why you line up and play. But needless to say, not bullish expectations on the old Washington football. So we're back to Daniels for me. So he had him in the mid 3000s, right? 3400 change. That where he had him? Yes, 3450 yards. I don't think that would be overly problematic if he's running for another five to seven hundred because then you're talking about 4000 yards from the quarterback position as a rookie, which is, I think how we're going to have to view numbers with Daniels just to look at passing yards when he does so much with his feet is not fair to the player. Same as Salem are or Josh Allen or any of these other guys. It's total touchdowns, total yards. How many rushing touchdowns that he have him for five, five hundred eighty seven yards on the ground and five touchdowns. So he had 20 total touchdowns and 14 picks. That is the very low end of what I would find to be acceptable, so to speak, in the sense of, I got to be honest, that I'd be disappointed coming out of his rookie year if those are the numbers. Now, as long as he looked the part, the process is going to be way more important than the result. As long as he's showing that he can do this, he's in control of the offense in command of the huddle, making good decisions, and not every pick is created equal. He's got 14 picks. Maybe four of them were bounced off someone's hands. You know, if he's still just not seeing the zoning linebacker in week 13, that's a whole different story. But I think this fan base is in a place where they would be able to deal with that better than maybe in the past where they could say, yeah, it wasn't great. He had 14 picks. He lost four or five fumbles, whatever it is. There's about 20 touchdowns and 20 turnovers. But look at the good stuff. Let's not forget the off season where everyone was raving about him. Let's not forget this staff thinks he's the real deal. Let's build this thing up bigger and better in year two. Let's get him more help on the line, because you're saying he's projecting 40 plus sacks, which is way too many. Let's let him help the line. He's going to learn. He's going to get the ball out faster. And let's add another weapon or two. I think that'll be the narrative within the fan base, the discourse more than, uh oh, because that would be a slightly disappointing season. Wouldn't be a disaster, but it just wouldn't be great. So let me offer a couple caveats over the last couple years. We've actually seen a, a precipitous drop off in terms of touchdown passes league wide. This is not, you know, some flooky thing. This has been really ongoing since I would say 2022. The last year, we had some really huge prolific passing touchdown totals, a number of guys over 30, Pat Mahomes of the league that year with 41 last year. I only think a couple guys were north of 30. Now we're not that far removed from the passing era where, you know, uh, you had to have 50 something if you wanted to leave the league and you still might not have. Last year, I think it was four quarterbacks that love per Ian golf, 36, 32, 31 and 30. So all of a sudden, another two guys at 29, another one at 28, but yeah, 30 or more four quarterbacks and people kind of look at those numbers and go, wow, that'd be really disappointing. And 15 touchdowns and 14 picks would be, but Jalen hurts, for example, a guy that's, you know, not too far removed from being an MVP candidate is only projected by clay to have 20 touchdown passes with 11 picks. Now you add in his touch push, rushing total touchdown. This is really going to buoy his overall production. But this is a different time. I think Pat Mahomes, the highest touchdown prognostication I saw at 33. So it's not as if the, the elites, the best of the best are going to do 40 something, 50 something, Aaron Rodgers coming off MVP seasons where he's doing 45, 50, et cetera. Everybody's a bit watered down in these kind of expectations. Just something to throw out though. Mahomes two seasons ago at 41 touchdowns. And that year, both burrow and Allen at 35, Gino Smith was the other guy with 30 cousins, golf, both at 29. So you were right there at like seven guys having basically 30 touchdowns. So I would say last year was a little bit of an outlier, honestly, in the touchdown discussion, because if you go back to 2021, which is only three football seasons ago, Brady at 43, Stafford at 41, Herbert at almost 40. Mahomes at 37, Dak at 37, Rodgers at 37, Allen at 36, burrow at 34, cousins at 33. We're talking about 10 guys with 33 or more. But it's, so it looks like there's a trend line here. There's a two, I don't know if there's a, yes, there is over two years, it's gone down a little bit. Does that mean that that's what it is now? But maybe we're, we're getting off track to even a point that's irrelevant with Daniels, because I think you just said something that is more relevant, which is I don't think just viewing his passing stats because he's a quarterback is the correct way to do this. Like, I want to go back to that. We have argued some over how much he should run. My answer is as much as he can, as much as he wants to. I think that is the superpower that's what's going to make him really special. Like Lamar Jackson won the MVP award last year. He threw for 3,600 yards and 24 touchdowns. Lamar Jackson one time in his career is thrown for more than 26 touchdowns. In fact, he's had years, two of the last three years where it's 16 and 17 through 12 games. He was on pace for like 20 touchdowns, 21 touchdowns in those years. His other MVP season was ridiculous. He threw for 36 touchdowns that year, but he has never thrown for 4,000 yards. And he actually actually hasn't even been close. He won the MVP in 2019 while throwing for 3,100 yards. Over 15 games, that's next to nothing, but he was unbelievably efficient, led to league and QBR led to league and touchdowns. The highest percentage of his passes were scores among all quarterbacks. The difference was that year, he recreated the position with how he ran the ball while being an efficient passer, not prolific statistically, but just super efficient. So he went out and he ran for 1,200 yards. And my point is if Jayden Daniels runs for 3,100 with 25 touchdowns, we shouldn't be comparing that to Kirk Cousins or Jared Gough for some guys that are just standing in the pocket if he also runs for 9, 75 and six. Yeah, if you're looking at the total offense at the position, which was always my point back in the day, by the way, with regards to Michael Vick, the Atlanta Falcons. Well, everybody would go nuts about Vick and the highlights were hot. The highlights were otherworldly. They were incredible. He never accumulated 4,000 yards. Total. So even with the passing, even with the running. Now he didn't, once he got to Philadelphia, he did that much later. But everyone was crowning him telling me he was the best. And I go, well, I would actually would take this pedestrian boring guy that's home for 4,000 yards because Vick's not even creating that. He's not even getting to that total when you combine both. So I'm all for combining both and we're looking at total offense gained. But to me, the evolution of him as a passer is the assignment. Because if he falls into a coma and wakes up in a year, he'll still be able to run the ball. That's what needs to be paramount and worked on, is be able to throw the football. So now obviously he's got a great arm. He's got skill set to be able to do this stuff. But to me, that development is the most essential thing that a quarterback needs to not just be a gimmick, but to actually thrive and be awesome and be, you know, sustainable in this league, which I don't think anybody would dispute, especially people that lived through 2012 and saw the transition Griffin was making, where we'll continue to disagree is I don't think you have to not be running to develop as a passer. That's what Griffin used to butt heads with the Shanahan's about all the time. And I still disagree with it. Like the idea that you cannot develop as a passer and have your cake and eat it too. There's 24 hours in a day. If you run eight, nine, 10 times in a game or something, there's so much time and energy that can be sunk into the development of the player in the pocket as a QB. I think you've seen it with a guy, whether it's Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen's a great example, who they immediately said, let's make you the best weapon you can be right away. And what has he done year in and year out? He's gotten a little better and a little better and a little better as a passer. Sought with jail and hurts. Now he regressed last year. But anyway, to me, yes, I will agree that with that point, totally. How good he is throwing the football is what is eventually going to determine whether or not he's a superstar. Yeah. So to me, this would be gravely disappointing. And the, the, the interception numbers, which would be more than he's kind of shoulder proclivity too. This isn't like a Rex Grossman gunslinger coming out of school, kind of guy that's turned the ball over a bunch, keeping it out of harm's way was to me what made the lot of things made Griffin special on 2012. But that was probably the biggest one was you're getting some of these highlights, whether they're running the ball or, you know, some of the great throws that he made, whether they're deep ones or the slot fade against the Giants to Santana Moss or, you know, some of the Dimes that he threw without turning it over without doing the rookie mistake thing, without doing Peyton Manning that or Troy Aikman did or a lot of these guys. And to me, Daniel's taken care of the football sort of seemed would seem to be more of the identity of what they're looking for as they eventually pile more and more responsibility on his plate. The 14 picks to that point would be the most disappointing part. Now, I can live with 14 picks if they, if it's prolific, yeah, if they're opening their offense up and they're just slinging it, he's attempting more passes than I expect, like 500 some pass in the same house style. And he's got 25 touchdowns to go with it or whatever. But to your, yeah, I think you're 100% right. The way they're going to do this thing. Hey, man, let's manage this. Let's run the football with Austin Echler, Brian Robinson and yourself. Let's make some explosive place legs and our arm. But let's not turn the rock over. And so I'm thinking more like 20 to 22 touchdowns like you are, it sounds like. But I, I think with that, you want 10 or fewer picks probably, right? You want 89 interceptions or something fewer. And I'm giving you that number because you're a kid, you're going to make some bad mistake and stuff happens. Like tip passes. Good luck. Bad luck ball bounces out of one of your not so good receivers hands. I guess for me, I'm not even talking about actual picks as much as like, what should be picked the turnover worthy play model from PFF. Like you want 10 or fewer if he's throwing the limited amount that I'm expecting in this offense, because I do think we're going to see them try to make it as simple as they can, not schematically, but in terms of what's on his plate early. What have they said all off season? You don't have to be the hero that you're just part of the process. You're just one of the guys. You're a piece of the puzzle. I think we could keep see them seeing them trying to, and to send that message with how they call plays if Cliff Kingsbury is on board with that early this season. But let's open up the phones wide open right now. MGM National Harbor listener lines for you guys at 800-636-1067. That's 800-636-1067. First of all, do you think the statistical kind of season here that Mike Clay is looking at is realistic in any way? Daniel, give you the numbers again in one second. The other question would be if this is how it ends up going that his algorithm is close to correct, do you agree with me that the fan base would find a way to make it work, that people wouldn't be bailing, that it wouldn't be of viewed as, yeah, it's disappointing, but it's not alarming yet. Or do you think people would be alarmed? I think people would be alarmed, because I think the expectations are maybe a little bit out of whack at this point, just because they, you know, number two overall pick, you better be the savior. Otherwise, it's not worth pursuing. So I'm hoping for patience and grace. But basically, the summary is this, the least productive offense in the NFL down in the bottom couple with the Giants and a couple other teams that are offensively anemic, Daniel's throws according to Mike Clay for 3,450 yards, 15 touchdowns, 14 picks, 587 yards and five touchdowns on the ground. Overall numbers for for Jay D'Nano's prognosticated by Mike Clay, their only win probability game where they're in the positive is week two against the Giants. 806361067 is the number. Grant and Danny on the fan. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Whether you love true crime or comedy, celebrity interviews or news, you call the shots on what's in your podcast queue. And guess what? Now you can call them on your auto insurance too, with the name of your price tool from Progressive. It works just the way it sounds. You tell Progressive how much you want to pay for car insurance, and they'll show you coverage options that fit your budget. Get your quote today at progressive.com to join the over 28 million drivers who trust Progressive. Progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates price and coverage match limited by state law. The seasons may be changing, but the deals and the sharpest rides are unbeatable as ever. Hey, what's going on? It's your girl, Tasha McKia, and I need you to join the sharpest rides for their fall into savings events, where they're offering incredible prices on their massive inventory. That's right, everything is on sale now. Shot from sleek sedans to rugged SUVs and sporty convertibles. The sharpest rides has the perfect ride to match your fall adventures. Plus, with their exclusive financing options, getting behind the wheel of your dream car has never been easier. Log on and shop online at the sharpestrides.com right from the palm of your hands. Or, check other massive inventory in person at the sharpest rides, located 2250 South Sea Home Street in Inglewood. Either way, you will fall into savings. Don't miss out, head on over to the sharpestrides.com today and explore the deals that make every season better. And tell them that your girl, Tasha McKia sent you the sharpest ride, affordable, sexy, sharp. Hey NFL fans, you can start the season with a big return on FanDul, America's number one sports book. So when you get a hunch in the middle of the game, you can check out the latest stats, view live play-by-play, and so much more on the same page where you place your bets. You'll get started with $200 in bonus bets guaranteed when you place your first $5 bet. That's FanDul.com/sportsfan. Never waste a hunch and make every moment more with FanDul, an official sports book partner of the NFL. Must be 21 plus and present in Colorado. First online real moneyweights are only $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued is now a throwable bonus bet set expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanDul.com. Gambling problem, call 1-800-522-4700. Doors take us to summers away, or winter adventures, and afternoon getaways. 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You can watch us on the 106-7 The Fan YouTube page, and of course, take us with you wherever you go on the Odyssey app. Pause, rewind the show. There are so many different ways to check us out at this point in 2024. How about the top of the Nats lineup tonight? Davey Martinez, understanding the assignment. Danny Dillon Cruz batting lead off. Here we go. James Wood batting second. Let's go. I don't care what happens. This is the dream. Bottom of the first, Nats Park, you get to watch those two at bats. And then if you want to go get your beverage or go to the bathroom or whatever, that's fine. But let's get your hot dog, whatever else. Those two guys, as much experience as many opportunities as possible. Andrew Straparo is going to hit third who had a home run last night. Ian Jose Tano went back to back. The two big additions at the trade deadline that are already in the big leagues for Mike Rizzo and the Nationals. But the back-to-back Cruz Wood won two punch with Juan Soto in town. Just having some fun. Trying to take a series from the Yankees. Just having some fun. Come on now. This is what I want. I was talking to the buddy last night. He said, I want the Nats to get hot and see if they get to 70 wins or finish strong. And I kind of went, if that happens, great. Honestly, this is, this is the part I care about though. Dylan Cruz, James Wood, to a further extent, Luis Garcia finishing strong, CJ Abrams, hopefully getting hot. Mackenzie Gores on the bump tonight, getting right and trying to get the ERA south of four after a couple, you know, month plus and maybe not pitching up to his standard. This is why we're here. If you end up winning those games, delightful. If you don't, I still care about the first thing. We were just talking about the projections for the commanders from ESPN's Mike Clay. He's got Jaden Daniels throwing sub 20 touchdowns. In fact, right around 15, 15 with 14 interceptions. It just seems like a bearish outlook for Daniels compared to the momentum going into the season. If he does put up disappointing offensive numbers, if the results in year one aren't there, how would the fan base react? That's what we want to drill down on at 800-6-36-1067. Tony's in Clinton on GND. What's up, Tony? Hey, quick question. Does he have a projected attempts with that? Yes. How many attempts? Yep, 316 completions with with a 506 attempts. So basically, Sam Howell had 600 something last year with 21 and 21. And so I guess give or take, that's almost the same ratio as Sam Howell asked you. You're trying to tell me that they had the same quarterback and a better system with a better line, with better coaches. I foresee a more of maybe not quite C.J. Stroud-like season, maybe not five interceptions, but nine. Because I think he's smart enough and getting coached up enough to take care of the football. I mean, I think that's going to be the number one thing they preach. And he seems to be hezy enough with nothing to prove. He's not going to have to force plays and force things to try to prove himself like I think Sam Howell did. He knows this by the secure. So why can't he just settle in and play? So I see like 20 and nine. So listen, you got two guys that agree with you in studio. I guess the devil's advocate conversation we're having though is this guy does a pretty good job and is known for these projections in a hypothetical where this happened. Okay, you're saying I don't see it. And for me, I think it's bearish as well. I'll take the over on some of the numbers and the under on some of the bad numbers. But if this were to happen, what do you think the response would be in and could people kind of see the light at the end of the tunnel anyway? Oh, yeah, you can't it was just that would show that would be such incompetence. That would be a total system failure. Like that's the coordinator. That's him. That's everything that to be 15 to 15 or 15 to 14. Like you can't blame one thing. You can't blame Jaden. You can't. That's a total collapse of everything offensive. And I can't see that. So maybe that's a glimpse into the response. Maybe it would feel like an indictment against Kingsbury or just kind of the entire operation. The whole thing. I mean, if you're, you know, in my camp, you're worried about the receiver position, for example, that that goes into the pile. Kingsbury lines up Terra McCorn on the left side only that goes into the pile. The offensive line, if there are struggles, that goes into the pile. Daniels himself would bear some culpability. There's, there's no escape if that's how it ends up going. Right. And I just don't, I don't know that this fan base has patients in them in that regard. I think they're going to be patient in terms of record, by and large, right? You're going to see people, you know, who obviously you want to win every game and you want to be in the playoffs, you'd like the instant gratification. But as long as Jaden Daniels looks good and looks the part, I think folks can be more patient. If this happens, there's probably two, there's probably way more bad than good if it, if it goes that way. And I think people be frustrated. This is the worst offense in the sport again, right? Like, I don't think people are going to be patient. Well, they're the worst offense in the sport. I think people would be really angry and I mean, understandably, there's no excuse for them to be the worst offense in the sport. If they're the worst offense in the sport, that's a huge indictment against Cliff Kingsbury. And by the way, Cliff Kingsbury is in a prove it season himself. 100%. Cliff Kingsbury as a head coach struggled with the Cardinals, but he's never been a coordinator at the NFL level. He ran the Arizona offense. He called their plays as a head coach, but they were never a great offense. And he is an offensive wizard, supposedly. But there are plenty of people who take issue with some of the usage things that he does. Like he would line his best receiver, DeAndre Hopkins, up on one side of the field, only on the left, never move him around. He just stood in the same spot. Everyone knew where he was and he ran basically the same couple of routes. There was a lack of diversification to the portfolio. There was a lack of any kind of out of the box thinking at times, like that those complaints are out there, particularly in the analytics community. A lot of the guys that we get on say they've got questions. So if they were to have a boring offense that statistically was one of the worst in the sport and Daniels would struggle, I think that would be the big conversation maybe going into the off season. I don't think anyone would turn on Daniels right away as much as maybe, wait a second, is the fit right? What do we think of Cliff? How sure are we? But again, hypothetically, if this happens, how do you respond as the conversation? I think I speak for both of us when I say I'm expecting better than that. When you say you'd be really disappointed by that, that acknowledges that you don't foresee that as realistic. I suppose it's in the realm of possible, right? That's the level. Well, yeah, you know, I'm not trying to be difficult. But I think that that's the bottom end. Like that to me is the worst case, where everything breaks wrong in terms of turnovers, worst case, disappointing. That's synonymous with you think you'll be better than that. I do. I get to mean, I don't think it's going to be more prolific than that as in terms of passing. I just I don't think we're going to get think he's going to throw more than 15 touchdowns. I think we might get a couple more, but I don't think it's going to be damn. I mean, 15 touchdowns is Alex Smith. Yeah, it's nothing. I think it's going to be fairly paltry in there. Now, if he rushes for 10, then okay, who cares, whatever. But what is his total number of touchdowns going to be 17 or 18 with rushing? Oh, no, sorry. I was thinking just passing 2324. Okay. I'd live with that. That is above disappointing. But that's like the lowest of what would excite me. You know, I want it to be with rushing in and around 25 or a little like upper 20s, upper half of the 20s. 20 passing is very realistic and should happen. And there's no reason he doesn't, he might run for seven or eight. Honestly, I could see over 25 is kind of what I'm banking on and would also excite me. Let's go to Shane in Virginia. How are you Shane? Hey, man, they're great. How y'all doing today? Come on. I'm good, buddy. Look, look, look at the defense that they played the first six games. Like the defense that they play is is legit defenses. I'm talking playoff defenses. Do you get to steal like the Ravens? And you know, the Giants defense do two or three of years. So and plus the in-house what we got in our division. No, I see him struggling. I see it not what we got to be patient as fans. We get this is a Ricky quarterback. You got a rookie coordinator that's in the box that we don't know what's going to happen. We have no receiver court whatsoever. Office of line is still question mark. And plus what our defense can put them in batches. I mean, right now we're rebuilding and we need to be patient. I see him by a total of like cops, 23 touchdowns. That's counting Russian and throwing. I got him like 18 throwing and about 10 interceptions. I think he's going to protect the ball. I'm not worried about that. I'm just worried about him blasting and staying upside and seeing if the pressure, you know, we have them off the line going to jail. Well, that's something we haven't thrown up yet. Shane is regardless of the numbers. If he plays a full season, which is part of the projection, obviously, not that he was banking and injuries, but even if he puts up these numbers, but he were to play, let's say, 16, 17 games, that'd be a huge deal. They'd be massive. So arguably the biggest long term question he's got to answer is at his size, at that position, with his play style, can he last an NFL season and make this work? And he will have answered pretty resoundingly. Yes. Right away. Indeed. Yeah, especially in a time you're probably most likely to deal with contact as a rookie, right? The older you get, probably the better you are at avoiding some of that stuff, you'd think, but Clay's got built into most of his prognostications. Guys playing 15 games, 14 games, or even a little bit less. How many do you have for Daniel? He's got a missing too. Listen to Kevin's in Arlington. What's up, Kev? Hey, guys. Yeah. So I'm seeing like a two to one ratio in the passing where he's going to be like 25 touchdowns and 11 or 12 picks. Now, if he isn't, this goes back to the criticism that you've been hearing from Danny and me and others. What when you look at our projected offense, it's staggering to me when there's only one first round pick and that's changing himself, okay? You know, on the defensive side, we've got seven former first rounders or more on the roster. And so to think of that, we only have one first round pick projected to start and that's changed. And to me, that's a reflection of just how poorly the roster has been managed. And even, I'm going to give Adam the benefit of the doubt, but I'm sorry. He left opportunities out there, both wide out and tackle. And I hope it doesn't bite him in the butt. I love who he drafted. You know, I love Senate. I love Coleman. I love McCaffrey. I think they're gonna be good eventually, but if they're not good and it's not because he's injured, it's because they starved the offense. Appreciate you, buddy. And a lot of us are going to look back at this part of the offseason. Certainly those that came before it specifically for agency and we'll go, why not? A little more aggression at those spots and if there's a chance we'll get to talk to Adam Peterson on the show and that's what we will discuss with them. What was the balance of urgency, aggressiveness and basically in year one, setting the foundation with a lot of veterans that are going to help shape a culture. Grant and Danny on the fan at the top of the hour at four o'clock, 20 minutes out, we got tickets to see Kevin Hart at D. A. R. Constitution Hall, super hot tickets. Everybody wants. We got him exclusively on this show. Double play is next right here on the fan. [silence] Welcome back, Grant and Danny on the fan. We've got some breaking commanders news that just came across the wire like it's 1914 right across the wire in front of us. Ladies and gentlemen, let's get that for you. All breaking news on the fan brought to you by BetQL, Smarter Bet, start with BetQL. Get three free days of BetQL access by downloading the BetQL app or visiting BetQL.com. You already knew that the commanders were shopping John Ridgeway that some teams reportedly had reached out to them where there is now a trade in place according to Ian Rappaport first of NFL Network. The commanders are trading defensive tackle John Ridgeway to the New Orleans Saints. According to his sources, John Ridgeway to New Orleans, according to Tom Pelasero, Washington in return will be getting a late round pick swap. So they essentially will pick higher in the draft if things work out that the Saints are worse than the commanders. So they will get a late round pick swap for John Ridgeway, who they were likely to wave anyway very likely. They were able to make the trade breaking news on the fan here on Grant and Danny. I always like when let's just see what's what. If we're going to cut a guy, let's try to get something done first. They kept him around. They could have just released him yesterday. And then the Saints and everybody else would have been in a fight to claim him. Instead, they go, we'll keep him on the roster because you get a pick swap back. You now have an opening. So you can either add one of the guys that you cut yesterday back to your roster or one of those claims that we talked about them not making. You know how they vacancy for a claim. I actually like John Ridgeway's game a little bit. I do too. He's a run stuff for his physical hit a couple of like WWE style body slam tackles that were notable and I think beloved by the fan base and he had some good moments along the way. Late round type player who's going to be depth on most NFL rosters, but I like that they try to get creative here. A hundred percent. So this is as little compensation as you can get back almost by its nature because there's a great chance you finish with a worst record than New Orleans does in which case it's moot. You don't get anything. Well, Adam, it's a bit sad to that because Nikki Javala literally just moments ago tweeted this within the last minute. So she's adding to what Pelisero said. Pelisero said pick swap of Javala of the Washington Post says the commanders are also sending a seventh round pick to New Orleans and getting a sixth in return. So you go. So you're getting something. So that's honestly that's like some moving and shaking from Adam Peters where you're going. All right, let's do the pick swap thing. But also we'll give you a seven. You give us a six. The Saints are like, come on. Come on Adam. John Ridgeway, Ridgeway, bro. And he's like, yeah, it is John Ridgeway. And also it's a seventh round and six round pick. But you're just load up on picks as best you can. He has said he wanted to do this. So they trade the seven in Ridgeway. They get a six and a pick swap helping themselves on draft day, which Peter's clearly prioritized. It's very, very obvious with this deal with the Jahan Datsun deal. A couple guys that might have been able to benefit you this season that you jettison to add picks of whatever value you can get. So now I look at the two deals differently, talking about Datsun and Ridgeway, but I think it's important to kind of classify. Ridgeway is a position of strength. Meaning you've got pieces there. You've got your pro bowlers. You just drafted a guy in the second round. You've got a former second rounder in Mathis who hasn't clicked yet hasn't really caught on. Let me rephrase that hasn't caught on at all yet has barely played. But maybe you like what's there in the room and you go, this is a luxury item. This is this is the very nature of our first barter economy. The place where I'm strong and you might be weak, it's worth more to you than it is to me. Let's let's do things. I've got 10 years of corn and you have none, but you've got 100 apples and I've got none. What's it worth to you? And we switch therein. That's what this is. I like that. Dealing Datsun to me is a different story and needs to be treated as such. But yeah, they were pretty clear about this, right where they go. And I think they assessed it correctly. This is this is one of the only deep quality spots of the roster, not just with names, not just with people that are human beings that technically play safety or cornerback or otherwise. We kept 11 safeties where everyone number is. The defensive tackle room is the good room. That's the one where you stop by and ask if they need anything, you bring them them up and you go fetch them their coffee or their smoothie, whatever they want. That's the the best group. They're the stars. They're your A students. So dealing from that room makes a lot of sense to me. Good for Fight Area and Mathis agreed to turn around a job and to completely turn his preseason around. I thought he was good in a couple of the games, but he was great. Sunday night. I thought he was fantastic at times dominant really, really blew me away early in the game with just the punch he packed in the physicality of the line of scrimmage and even showing a little burst and twitch at the snap. Like stuff I didn't hadn't seen. I just didn't know he had. And they obviously, it's beyond just a game practice, the process leading up to this. They liked what they saw too. But I had written him off, dude. I thought Fight Area and Mathis was gone. Second round pick, couple years of not playing, heard a lot, hadn't done anything. And he just kept working. That's not an easy thing to do, by the way, because if we think he's gone, what do you think's going on in his head? It was just kind of assumed he wasn't going to be around by most of the people that covered the team that he was in big, big trouble. He's got to show up every day, pack his lunch and put it in the lunch pail and just go to work knowing I might get cut. And he just kept punching and kept punching and finally the wall fell down. So he beat out Ridgeway. He would outperformed him and been ahead of him on the depth chart the last couple years. Speaking of Ridgeway to New Orleans, he joins Chase Young and Kelly Hudson. They are building something of a former commander's backup. It's an outpost. Flash number two overall pick player pile. So the Saints and Matthew Paris, who covers them now are old buddy, who covered the commanders here for the Washington Times, loading up on players more on Ridgeway and the Beltway Blitz coming up in just a few minutes when we talk to a Nick Akridge, we'll get PFF's thoughts on how he had performed over the last couple of seasons. One more commander's note for you. We got a new number for Mikey Sanristil. Fans care about this. Okay, I know you do not. Correct. I do not. This is something that fans get psyched about. I think partially because they buy jerseys. That's a small group of people, but there are people they're going to buy a Mikey Sanristil jersey, but there's just something to what numbers a guy going to wear. And he was wearing number two, as was the Ami Brown. The Ami Brown has been on the team longer, has worn the number longer. So unless he wants to give it up, he made the team, he's going to keep it. Sanristil has moved off of two. He will now wear number zero. Now, you're going, well, wait a second. Marcus Marioo wore number zero in the preseason. And you're right. Marcus Marioo is going to have to change numbers. Apparently, he already has because I don't think they would have made him change, but Sanristil has chosen zero. I hate the number zero. Generally on players, I want you to have a real number. Okay. You actually want to be an integer? I do. But I care about numbers a little bit. I know you don't. So I'm not going to make you talk about that anymore than I already have. I got you. But number zero, Sanristil jersey. So we don't, we don't know. Marioo does yet. We do not. Okay. I'm caught up. I got it. Look at that. I thought there was a, I was like, Danny with a follow up question. Darius actually got psyched when you asked that. I'm shocked. We got through that. Okay. Yeah. What do you think? What do you think I was going to do? Like, just make that dumb and dumber noise. Like the whole time you're trying to give the information, because you're right. Some people care. I don't. I can't believe anyone cares. When you think interest enough to ask me, so Marioo doesn't have a number yet. Darius like cocked his head to the side and had the biggest smile on his face. Oh, I just couldn't believe it. I'm glad I made you happy, buddy. Could you just know sell the whole thing? Why? I do think we should never worry about numbers and any number is fine for any player. They only got one to 99 and some of them are retired. So you got less numbers than that. But this philosophy is fine. You can't name the numbers of like, somebody the best players ever. And you just don't care. I could that that when you had your way of doing it was like a lemon needs to be a 60 number. I can't do it. I don't remember all the numbers. But don't you want to be able to fire off numbers? No, I don't care. I don't care. By the way, cutest thing in the world. I don't know if anybody saw this. Thank you. This is no not. Oh, stop it. I thought you meant me. You're hot. You're nice. Very, very different. You looked at me when you said cutest, you saw that right there is a hot dad, not the cute dad. We should have hot dad. I didn't see the commanders like almost schedule reveal style. They had this three year old kid announced the 53 man roster on their team. Did they really do that? Yeah. So this kid doesn't know how to read like at the beginning, it says he likes juice boxes and he can't read. How could he's three? Of course. I have a three year old boy, but here's what he can do. Recognize every player in their number by their picture of their face. Come on. It's the most amazing thing. The kid's three. So he was just like he had this iPad in front of him and he kept like sliding to see the next player and they did it in numerical order. So he's like number zero, Marcus Mariota. It was he number eight was be wobb. And then the next guy was Noah Igbonogany and he perfectly said it. Everyone Benning Poto Atte. I mean, he didn't make the team, but like every name was perfect. It was incredible. It was he like, where's number one? John Johnson? What happened? I hear people on the air, botch, Alameda Zacchaeus incessantly. Yeah. He nailed every syllable of it, but he would stop like every few names and like drink a lunch, like drink a juice pot. Yeah, drink a juice pot. Capri Suns in there. And then like the commanders people put like something underneath like a caption like breaking for a juice and he would like slurp really loud with his straw. But funny. That's first of all, that's great content. I'm into that. He loves the numbers. You don't love the numbers. No, I don't care. But little kids like that can use can do weird stuff. My oldest is now almost 11. But when he was tiny, he couldn't really walk. But it's starting to talk and chat a little bit. He could go through this book of trucks until you every kind of truck. Before he could like say your name, Sherman does that right now. Yeah, where he were looking to go quad axo low bed. Yes. Cherry picker. Like he could say quad axo low bed is like a one and a half year old. I'm like, what are you talking about? They memorize it as you read it to. Yeah. And then they just see the picture and they know it. It's crazy. Next hour, I want to get into random NFL players who were pulled about quarterbacking categories, underrated, overrated, bunch of different things that were fun. We'll get into that at 425. But the blitz is next and we're giving away those Kevin Hart tickets right here on Grant and Danny. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Whether you love true crime or comedy, celebrity interviews or news, you call the shots on what's in your podcast queue. And guess what? Now you can call them on your auto insurance too, with the name of your price tool from Progressive. It works just the way it sounds. You tell Progressive how much you want to pay for car insurance and they'll show you coverage options that fit your budget. Get your quote today at Progressive.com to join the over 28 million drivers who trust Progressive. 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