Grant and Danny
Mike Clay Seems Very Low On The Commanders, Agree?
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But he's using every bit of data for, you know, trying to account for everything from development to strength of schedule to, you know, every predictive measure you can come up with to try to give you an analysis of how strong or weak a given team or player or kind of his expectations are. And it is not very kind for Washington. I'll just go through a couple of these things. Jane Daniels, this is his commander's projections. Okay, Daniels, 3450 in terms of yardage, 15 touchdowns, 14 picks sacked 41 times and ends up with 587 rush charts and five touchdowns. Yeah, tough. I mean, that would be a really bad year, I'd say, disappointing season. Brian Robinson, 200 carries, which is what he's been at over the last a couple seasons to give or take. Obviously a lot of reasons for that. 841 yards, five touchdowns, Austin Echler, 480 on the ground and 434 through the air. So not even achieving 1000 total yards out of the backfield. That I think that would be disappointing for some. I don't know where you are on your prognostigations for him, but that catch totals there. He does. Robinson 35 Echler 49. That's the low end of what I would hope that I think Echler could get 60, maybe even a JD McKissick Larry centers like 70 balls. That's what I think. Because I think there's not much else. So I think he's going to catch the football. I think they're going to get that going a lot. McClellan, as you'd expect, 74 catches just over 1000 yards, 1012 is what he's got with only three touchdowns. So McClellan traditionally doesn't score a lot of touchdowns for whatever reason. He's been in that mid 70s, just over 1000 yard thing with with offense with stroke with with bad offenses, back quarterbacks, whatever. So that kind of falls in line. And I kind of went and looked at some other data points, just for example, other teams. And it's similar for some of the groups that we would expect to struggle, right? Like the Giants have similar type numbers offensively. Look at somebody that's probably better on Pittsburgh, similar numbers for George Pickens, for example. Are you talking about Clay's projections? Yes. Okay. Right. Going through all those. And you could go up and down, and I won't bore everybody with the rest of the numbers, but the second leading receiver, he's got Luke McCaffrey, 41 catches for 482 yards. Downby Brown only 27 catches is the key. It's only 27 catches, not much between them. So you could you would combine two or three guys and get a number two receiver. Yeah. So and I think that's very plausible. Honestly, we've talked about this. I don't necessarily think they've got a receiver on their roster, not named McClorn, who's going to catch 50 bowls or go for 600 plus yards or something like that. I would be stunned if Zacchaeus did it. He caught 10 passes last year. I'd be really surprised if Brown did it, who caught 12 or something in 12 passes the last three years, 12 last year. That's just not happening. I don't think a 60 for 650 guy or something is walking through that door, but it also doesn't have to be that way. If hurts is healthy, I think he's going to be number two in catches and yards. And I think he's actually going to have a big year. Like that's a guy I'd buy stock in fantasy wise, to be honest. If you're in this area, the problem with that is he just never stays healthy. But if you were to tell me he played 15 games, I think people will be shocked around the country how frequently they utilize him because Kingsbury knows him, brought him over from Arizona. Big part of the offense there at one point, you saw him catch 15 bowls in a game here years ago at the peak of his powers. Like that's a guy that's just going to be a volume shooter, so to speak. But when he gets hurt, that's really and if he gets hurt, hopefully he doesn't. But when that happens and he's not available, now what? That's where I worry. That's a lot of Echler, some Robinson. Now it's the Zacchaeus, the Ami Brown show. Maybe that's where Luke McCaffrey in the slot comes into play, providing some size without Earth's. That's when I start to get a little concerned. So by way of reference, again, just this is, I'm just passing on the information, everybody. He's got them last in the league in offensive touchdown. So last in the league and scoring presumably 27th in yards, 27th in completions, high and right terms of rushing attempts. I think he sort of sees what maybe some of us here do, where this is how they're going to, they're going to major in things and try not to put too much on Daniels's plate early on. Defensively, they'll improve some but still be in the upper 20s in terms of ranking. Beyond that, he's win probability stat. Now that's going to change week to week, right? This is before the season starts. This is assuming everybody's health. Yeah. When you start to put more info into the algorithm, it's going to change massively. You play Philadelphia without Jalen Hertz and AJ Brown, because they both, you know, slipped on an oil slick. Okay. Well, that's a different outcome potentially, right? But looking at the win probability as of now, they have it above 50% win probability for one game currently on their schedule. Whereas you look at San Francisco, who has 17, you look at, you know, teams that are probably competing with Super Bowls, the lowest they'll have is like one game that's more of a toss up, right? The Jets, for example, I think have one. And that's a week one game, again, somebody really good that they play at the outset. I can't remember where they play, but week one, yeah, the Jets have the Chiefs. Yeah, Jets, that's the only game they're not win probability favored, so to speak, right? So basically the two games with the Giants, ones a toss up and one at home, the second game of the year, they are ever higher than a coin toss in terms of win probability. It doesn't mean that you go two and 15 or whatever. I don't think anybody's saying that. You win games are not supposed to win all the time. It's the league, it's why you line up and play. But needless to say, not bullish expectations on the old Washington football. So we're back to Daniels for me. So he had him in the mid 3000s, right? Yep. 3,400 change. That where he had him. Yes. 3,450. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Whether you love true crime or comedy, celebrity interviews or news, you call the shots on what's in your podcast queue. And guess what? Now you can call them on your auto insurance too, with the name of your price tool from Progressive. It works just the way it sounds. You tell Progressive how much you want to pay for car insurance and they'll show you coverage options that fit your budget. Get your quote today at progressive.com to join the over 28 million drivers who trust Progressive. Progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates, price and coverage match limited by state law. Hey NFL fans, you can start the season with a big return on FanDul, America's number one sports book. So when you get a hunch in the middle of the game, you can check out the latest stats, view live play by play and so much more on the same page where you place your bets. You'll get started with $200 in bonus bets guaranteed when you place your first $5 bet. That's fandul.com/sportsfan. Never waste a hunch and make every moment more with FanDul, an official sports book partner of the NFL. Must be 21 plus and present in Colorado. First online real money weights are only $10 first deposit required. Bonus issue does now withdrawable bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fandul.com. Gambling problem, call 1-800-522-4700. The seasons may be changing, but the deals at the sharpest rides are unbeatable as ever. Hey, what's going on? It's your girl Tasha McKia and I need you to join the sharpest rides for their fall into savings event where they're offering incredible prices on their massive inventory. That's right, everything is on sale now. Shop from sleek sedans to rugged SUVs and sporty convertibles. The sharpest rides has the perfect ride to match your fall adventures. Plus with their exclusive financing options, getting behind a wheel of your dream car has never been easier. Log on and shop online at the sharpestrides.com right from the palm of your hands. Or check other massive inventory in person at the sharpest rides located 2250 South Sea home street in Inglewood. Either way, you will fall into savings. Don't miss out. Head on over to the sharpestrides.com today and explore the deals that make every season better. And tell them that your girl Tasha McKia sent you the sharpest ride, affordable, sexy, sharp. I don't think that would be overly problematic if he's running for another five to seven hundred. Because then you're talking about four thousand yards from the quarterback position as a rookie, which is I think how we're going to have to view numbers with Daniel, just to look at passing yards when he does so much with his feet is not fair to the player. Same as Sailor Mar or Josh Allen or any of these other guys. It's total touchdowns, total yards. How many rushing touchdowns that he have him for? Five five hundred eighty seven yards on the ground and five touchdowns. So he had 20 total touchdowns and 14 picks. That is the very low end of what I would find to be acceptable, so to speak, in the sense of, I got to be honest, that I'd be disappointed coming out of his rookie year if those are the numbers. Now, as long as he looked the part, the process is going to be way more important than the result. As long as he's showing that he can do this, he's in control of the offense in command of the huddle, making good decisions. And not every pick is created equal. He's got 14 picks. Maybe four of them were bounced off someone's hands. You know, if he's still just not seeing the zoning linebacker in week 13, that's a whole different story. But I think this fan base is in a place where they would be able to deal with that better than maybe in the past where they could say, yeah, it wasn't great. He had 14 picks. He lost four or five fumbles, whatever it is, there's about 20 touchdowns and 20 turnovers. But look at the good stuff. Let's not forget the off season where everyone was raving about him. Let's not forget this staff thinks he's the real deal. Let's build this thing up bigger and better in year two. Let's get him more help on the line because you're saying he's projecting 40 plus sacks, which is way too many. Let's let him help the line. He's going to learn. He's going to get the ball out faster. And let's add another weapon or two. And I think that'll be the narrative within the fan base, the discourse more than, uh oh, because that would be a slightly disappointing season. Wouldn't be a disaster, but it just wouldn't be great. So let me offer a couple caveats. Over the last couple of years, we've actually seen a precipitous drop off in terms of touchdown passes. League wide. This is not, you know, some flooky thing. This has been really ongoing since I would say 2022. The last year we had some really huge prolific passing touchdown totals. The number of guys over 30 Pat Mahomes of the league that year with 41 last year, I only think a couple guys were north of 30. Now we're not that far removed from the passing era where, you know, uh, you had to have 50 something if you wanted to leave the league and you still might not have. Last year, I think it was four quarterbacks, like love per Ian Gough, 36 32 31 and 30. So all of a sudden, another two guys at 29, another one at 28, but yeah, 30 or more four quarterbacks and people kind of look at those numbers and go, wow, that'd be really disappointing. And 15 touchdowns and 14 picks would be, but Jalen hurts, for example, a guy that's, you know, not too far removed from being an MVP candidate is only projected by clay to have 20 touchdown passes with 11 picks. Now you add in his touch push rushing total touchdowns is really going to buoy his overall production. But this is a different time. I think Pat Mahomes, the highest touchdown prognostication. I saw 33. So it's not as if the, the elites, the best of the best are going to do 40 something, 50 something Aaron Rodgers coming off MVP seasons where he's doing 45 50, etc. Everybody's a bit watered down in these kinds of expectations. Just something to throw out there. My homes two seasons ago at 41 touchdowns and that year, both burrow and Allen at 35. Gino Smith was the other guy with 30 cousins. Gough, both had 29. So you were right there at like seven guys having basically 30 touchdowns. So I would say last year was a little bit of an outlier, honestly, in the touchdown discussion. Because if you go back to 2021, which is only three football seasons ago, Brady had 43 Stafford at 41, Herbert had almost 40. My homes at 37, Dakhead 37, Rodgers at 37, Allen at 36, burrow at 34, cousins at 33. We're talking about 10 guys with 33 or more. But it's so it looks there. There's a trend line here. There's a two. I don't know if there's a yes, there is over two years. It's gone down a little bit. Does that mean that that's what it is now? But maybe we're, we're getting off track to even a point that's irrelevant with Daniels because I think you just said something that is more relevant, which is I don't think just viewing his passing stats because he's a quarterback is the correct way to do this. Like, I want to go back to that. We have argued some over how much he should run. My answer is as much as he can, as much as he wants to. I think that is the superpower that's what's going to make him really special. Like Lamar Jackson won the MVP award last year. He threw for 3,600 yards and 24 touchdowns. Lamar Jackson one time in his career is thrown for more than 26 touchdowns. In fact, he's had years, two of the last three years where it's 16 and 17 through 12 games. He was on pace for like 20 touchdowns, 21 touchdowns in those years. His other MVP season was ridiculous. He threw for 36 touchdowns that year, but he has never thrown for 4,000 yards. And he actually actually hasn't even been close. He won the MVP in 2019 while throwing for 3,100 yards. Over 15 games, that's next to nothing, but he was unbelievably efficient, led the league in QBR, led the league in touchdowns. The highest percentage of his passes were scores among all quarterbacks. The difference was that year, he recreated the position with how he ran the ball while being an efficient passer, not prolific statistically, but just super efficient. So he went out and he ran for 1,200 yards. And my point is, if Jayden Daniels runs for 3,100 with 25 touchdowns, we shouldn't be comparing that to Kirk Cousins or Jared Gough for some guys that are just standing in the pocket if he also runs for 9, 75 and 6. Yeah, if you're looking at the total offense at the position, which was always my point back in the day, by the way, with regards to Michael Vick, the Atlanta Falcons. Well, everybody would go nuts about Vick and the highlights were hot. The highlights were otherworldly. They were incredible. He never accumulated 4,000 yards. Total. So even with the passing, even with the running, now he didn't, once he got to Philadelphia, he did that much later. But everyone was crowning him telling me he was the best. And I go, well, I'm actually would take this pedestrian boring guy that's known for 4,000 yards, because Vick's not even creating that. He's not even getting to that total when you combine both. So I'm all for combining both and we're looking at total offense gained. But to me, the evolution of him as a passer is the assignment, because if he falls into a coma and wakes up in a year, he'll still be able to run the ball. That's what needs to be paramount and worked on, is to be able to throw the football. So now, obviously, he's got a great arms, got skill set to be able to do this stuff. But to me, that development is the most essential thing that a quarterback needs to not just be a gimmick, but to actually thrive and be awesome and be sustainable in this league, which I don't think anybody would dispute, especially people that lived through 2012 and saw the transition Griffin was making, where we'll continue to disagree is I don't think you have to not be running to develop as a passer. That's what Griffin used to butt heads with the Shanahan's about all the time. And I still disagree with it. Like the idea that you cannot develop as a passer and have your cake and eat it too. There's 24 hours in a day. If you run eight, nine, 10 times in a game or something, there's so much time and energy that can be sunk into the development of the player in the pocket as a QB. I think you've seen it with a guy, whether it's Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen's a great example, who they immediately said, let's make you the best weapon you can be right away. And what has he done year in and year out? He's gotten a little better and a little better and a little better as a passer, sought with jail and hurts. Now he regressed last year. But anyway, to me, yes, I will agree that with that point, totally. How good he is throwing the football is what is eventually going to determine whether or not he's a superstar. Yeah. So to me, this would be gravely disappointing. And the, the, the interception numbers, which would be more than he's kind of shoulder proclivity too. This isn't like a Rex Grossman gunslinger coming out of school, a kind of guy that's turned the ball over a bunch, keeping it out of harm's way was to me what made the lot of things made Griffin special in 2012. But that was probably the biggest one was you're getting some of these highlights, whether they're running the ball or, you know, some of the great throws that he made, whether they're deep ones or the slot fade against the giants to Santana Moss or, you know, some of the Dimes that he threw without turning it over without doing the rookie mistake thing without doing Peyton Manning did or Troy Eichmann did or a lot of these guys. And to me, Daniel's taken care of the football, sort of seemed, would seem to be more of the identity of what they're looking for as they eventually pile more and more responsibility on his plate. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. Whether you love true crime or comedy, celebrity interviews or news, you call the shots on what's in your podcast queue. And guess what? Now you can call them on your auto insurance too, with the name of your price tool from Progressive. It works just the way it sounds. You tell Progressive how much you want to pay for car insurance and they'll show you coverage options that fit your budget. Get your quote today at Progressive.com to join the over 28 million drivers who trust Progressive. Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates price and coverage match limited by state law. Hey NFL fans, you can start the season with a big return on FanDul, America's number one sports book. So when you get a hunch in the middle of the game, you can check out the latest stats, view live play by play and so much more on the same page where you place your bets. You'll get started with $200 in bonus bets guaranteed when you place your first $5 bet. That's FanDul.com/sportsfan. Never waste a hunch and make every moment more with FanDul, an official sports book partner of the NFL. Must be 21 plus and present in Colorado. First online real money weights are only $10 first deposit required. Bonus issued is now a throwable bonus bet set expires seven days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanDul.com gambling problem call 1-800-522-4700. The seasons may be changing, but the deals at the sharpest rides are unbeatable as ever. Hey, what's going on? It's your girl Tasha McKia and I need you to join the sharpest rides for their fall into savings events where they're offering incredible prices on their massive inventory. That's right, everything is on sale now. Shop from sleek sedans to rugged SUVs and sporty convertibles. The sharpest rides has the perfect ride to match your fall adventures. Plus with their exclusive financing options, getting behind the wheel of your dream car has never been easier. Log on and shop online at the sharpestrides.com right from the palm of your hands. Or check other massive inventory in person at the sharpest rides, located 2250 South Sea home street in Inglewood. Either way, you will fall into savings. Don't miss out, head on over to the sharpestrides.com today and explore the deals that make every season better. And tell them that your girl Tasha McKia sent you the sharpest ride, affordable, sexy, sharp. Now at T-Mobile, get four 5G phones on us and four lines for $25 a line per month. When you switch with eligible trade-ins, all on America's largest 5G network. Minimum of four lines for $25 per line per month without a paid discount using debit or bank account, $5 more per line without auto pay plus taxes and fees and $10 device connection charge. Phones will be at 24 monthly bill credits for well qualified customers. Contact us before canceling entire account to continue bill credits or credit, stop and balance on a required finance agreement to bill credits and if you pay off devices early, see T-Mobile.com. Hey Mike Vlinny here, host a cash to ticket alongside my partner Jim Costa. It's really simple. 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