The Duran Podcast
Iran faces difficult decision as Middle East tensions rise
All right, Alexander, we are here in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and we are going to talk about the escalation of a big war in the Middle East. We are moving very, very fast towards a big conflict between Israel, Hezbollah, which could pull in Iran, it could pull in the United States. We have U.S. troops which are heading to the region, a small contingent of troops, but troops nonetheless. And it seems that every day we are getting missile strikes back and forth between Lebanon, Hezbollah, and Israel, and Netanyahu, put out a very, very worrying statement the other day, telling people in Lebanon to get out because it looks like Israel's going to go in. I mean, what do you see going on here? How do you see things? This is very worrying. This is my region, and actually Cyprus is also playing a role in this, in that they're preparing to host British nationals, U.S. nationals, and other people who are going to be fleeing Lebanon, they're preparing to host them. In Cyprus, of course, you have the U.K. air bases in Cyprus. Well, anyway, what are your thoughts on what is happening in the region? I think this is completely consistent with the policies that we've seen from the Netanyahu government for some time. They've got bogged down in a very difficult war in Gaza, which isn't going anywhere. And for some time now, the Netanyahu government has been seeking a general escalation against Hezbollah and ultimately an escalation against Iran. And we had a discussion about this, but we had several discussions about this. We talked about the attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. We've talked about the Haniya assassination in Iran. And we've also talked about Netanyahu's trip to the United States and the speech he gave to Congress. And it's clear to me that Netanyahu, at least, is aiming for a wider war in the Middle East. He's rejected all attempts to restrain him. He's rejected all proposals for ceasefire in Gaza. And he's now rejecting proposals for ceasefire with Hezbollah. So I think Israeli policy is not so difficult to understand. They are striking at Hezbollah that escalated massively against Hezbollah. They are inflicting real damage on Hezbollah. They're killing a lot of Hezbollah commanders, and Hezbollah, interestingly, is not denying this. We've had the incident with the Pedro attacks that we saw, which has been a humiliating blow for Hezbollah and has dented its own ability to project a sort of aura of invincibility. But at the same time, even as these missile strikes and this bombing goes on, we see that the fighting continues to flare. And what I think the Israeli policy is, is to hit Hezbollah as hard as possible for as long as possible, and eventually push the Iranians into a position where they have to make a decision. Either they back off and basically dump Hezbollah, which I think it is impossible for them to do. Or they come to Hezbollah's support to the defense of Hezbollah, in which case the wider war in the Middle East, that Netanyahu is seeking will start to happen. So I think this is Israeli policy. Does this include Netanyahu with ground troops into Lebanon? I mean, I've heard rumors about that. I don't know if anything has actually happened. Maybe by the time this video goes up, something will happen, but does this include Israel actually going into Lebanon? Right. The Israelis are threatening this all the time. But I wonder, I mean, this is again, I mean, I don't know their plans, but I wonder whether this is actually what they're really going to do. Because it seems to me that whilst they keep the situation as it is, with bombing raids and missile raids and that kind of thing, in other words, long-range strikes on Hezbollah and assassinations of high-value targets within Hezbollah, they're inflicting a huge amount of damage on Hezbollah and they're creating tensions between Hezbollah and Iran. And if, on the other hand, they actually send ground troops to fight Hezbollah, they're actually fighting Hezbollah on its own ground where Hezbollah is prepared. And at that point, it might be that the balance starts to shift more in Hezbollah's favour and the strains between Hezbollah and Iran might at that point start to fall. Because at the moment, the Israelis have Hezbollah where they want that they're able to bomb them, more strikes against them, take massive damage on them. The Hezbollah is very angry with Iran. There are lots of reports now saying this. There's a lot of stresses between Hezbollah and Iran. The Iranians are having to spread, make statements after statements, saying that they continue to support Hezbollah. They're having to send apparently delegates to Beirut to reassure Hezbollah that Hezbollah isn't being abandoned, that they're having to effectively apologise for the policies of their own president, President Pesesh Ghan, who has been seeking to de-escalate the situation in the Middle East. I know, President. The new president, exactly. So, why would the Israelis want to stop all of that by launching a ground operation which will give Hezbollah an opportunity, a better opportunity to strike back at Israel by fighting Israeli soldiers? I think that, for the moment, the strategy the Israelis are following has a logic which suggests to me that they're more likely to stick with it. And, yes, they have gathered more troops in northern Israel, three brigades. But we're talking about 12,000 men altogether. Not, I would have thought, a big enough force to really take on Hezbollah. Right, so it sounds to me like what Israel's strategy is to force, either force Iran to enter the conflict, or Iran looks like its ditching has been. Whether it is or not is not the case, it looks like its ditching Hezbollah, because I imagine Hezbollah is going to say, "Okay, fine, you're coming to Beirut, you're giving us reassurances, but, you know, we want action, we don't want words." Yes. Right? I mean, this is the part that I don't understand from Israel's side of things. What good does it do to them to try and pull in Iran, a much more powerful military into this conflict? I mean, I know they want everyone knows that, the Netanyahu that they want and the U.S. and the U.S. neocons, especially, want a conflict with Iran. We get that. Everyone gets that. But from a strategic point of view, why would you want Iran coming in? Well, I did think you should want to come again. I think that will be a huge mistake. What are you trying to take them to come in? I think that the Netanyahu government, Netanyahu himself, other top Israeli officials, have convinced themselves that Iran is the source of all their problems, and that if they can launch a war against Iran, get the West on site, defeat Iran itself, overthrow the government there, achieve regime change in Tehran, that will stabilise them, at least, in to Israel's benefit, enable the Israelis to secure control of the Palestinian territories and to forge ahead with the establishing diplomatic relations with all the Arab states. It is a reckless idea. That's my own view. And I think much more likely if we start getting into a situation where there's a war between Israel and Iran, this is going to be a long war, and Iran ultimately has greater resources. It's a much bigger country. It's got the support of the other brick states. It's going to have a lot of sympathy across the Muslim world. The Israelis might initially make some gains, but it's not going to play out well. And of course that discounts even bigger risks, like these Iranians blockading the Straits of Hormuz, and taking steps of that time. But I think this is what the Israelis believe. It can somehow solve the problem of Iran, you solve all the other problems. I think that is completely wrong, but I think that is their thinking. In the meantime, though, the Iranians have serious problems, because they're starting to look to many of their allies across the Middle East as a paper tiger, because they said they would react after Hania was assassinated. They haven't done so. They've seen this massive attack on take place against Hezbollah. They haven't done so. They are being criticized by their own allies. And I think it's gone beyond criticism, actually. There are more and more reports of people in Hezbollah and the other Shia militias who is in Yemen being furious with Iranians, accusing them of cowardice, of not wanting to stand up and fight. I read a comment by one Hezbollah commander when it says, you know, the Iranians talk of Hezbollah as their brothers. When it suits them, when it doesn't, well, they forget about us. So, you know, you can see that that narrative is spreading. And, of course, that would run in a very difficult position, because if they stand back and let their alliances crumble, or do they take a stand and risk this big war with Israel, which, at the moment, they don't want? Which would draw in the United States, because you said that Iran has a lot of resources more than Israel, but Netanyahu understands that he has the United States at his back. So, yeah. Exactly. By the way, we have been in these kind of situations before. If you know your history, this is exactly what happened in Vietnam in the early '60s, is that the South Vietnamese government was American bad, launched a massive anti-insurgency operation in South Vietnam. The North Vietnamese at that time were very reluctant to get into a war with South Vietnam. Consciously doing so would draw in the United States. They had to make a decision what they do. Eventually, they had to come to the help of their comrades in South Vietnam that did draw in the United States, which is what the South Vietnamese government wanted. But in the end, it didn't turn out so well. And, of course, that took more than 10 years, terrible fighting, millions killed. But in the end, well, we all know what the result was. And that's the risk. That is the same risk that Israel and the other advocates of war with Iran are running. But ultimately, they may get, in immediate terms, what they want a war with Iran involving the Western powers. But over the long term, it might not turn out so well. All right. We will end it there at the Durand.levels.com. We are on Rumbolitis and Bitcheek Telegram, Rockfin. And Twitter X and go to the Durand shop pick-ups of merch like the Australia flag T-shirt that I'm wearing today. And now it's the end of wearing the Greek flag polo shirt. There is a link in the description box down below. Take care. [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] [MUSIC PLAYING] (upbeat music) (upbeat music)