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every team every topic everywhere this is believed holy shit week four hopefully you got a seasonal fantasy team that still has a pulse but this is going to be a wild week if you haven't checked an injury report right now I would say probably don't cuz odds are have your team is on the fucking IR so wild time so a quick recap of week three a lot of great calls a lot of I don't know if I had like a bad bad call and I've never wanted to like pump my own chest here but not having Joann Jennings if you didn't have Joann Jennings you probably did not make a lot of money in the GPP space my GPP lineup looks so damn good early on I just didn't have Joann Jennings I did have Jerigolf Jameer Gibbs and Jameson Williams I don't know why I mean I just bit the value on Jameson Williams and I regret that one but I loved Gibbs but frustrating that game just completely stalled out in the second half it was pacing nicely good back and forth game it is what it is a week three bets here let's go through those we started off the week with the Jets my six and half nice we talked about Tankdale and the zone coverage there and a good spot for over three and a half receptions at -120 that hit with flying colors kind of in garbage time I believe without CJ Sprout so I don't necessarily feel good about that one but I also didn't handicap the Houston Texans just getting boat racing that game CJ Sprout over 22 and a half completions was a loss so that was only a point five seven unit risk though so we're okay with that honestly guys I think I mentioned it too on the pod last week any time I bet unders just don't bet it except this Thursday we hit both of them but if you don't have the sheet just DM me on Twitter all the bets are on there on a Google sheet that I share with everybody or if you remember it when daily I put it in the playbook but Justin Jefferson under 76 and a half yards I stand by that play I just didn't see that game going that way I think he slightly got over it but he got over that was a loser at 0.28 risk even myself like I I start to pull the thresholds in big time when I am betting unders just because I have a bad rap with betting unders I don't know why though the model seems to have an edge on them and I historically just don't win many. Zmir White in-time touchdown was a loser at damn near a full unit risk that's probably a horrible bet I need to think about that next time like there's no such thing as an absolute shoe in especially like what that situation was a mere white and Alexander Madison but model had an edge that lost Roma Dunes 8 over 35 and a half yards over at when daily we ladder that shit up to 70 plus absolute smash that was 1.09 unit risk to win a unit and then Kyle Jusack I talked about that one on the pod I think - 113 under 18 and a half yards receiving that cleared easily week four bets we got deck press got under 264 that hit Devin Singletary on short rest under 61 and a half that hit but I barely put anything on there slightly over a quarter unit risk moving on a Sunday we got Kirk Cousins over to 13 passing yards I'm bet MGM - 115 got in early on this one and now it seems like he's DFS chalk which will touch on a little bit but Tommy Trimble over 2 and a half catches plus 140 on bet MGM I believe that train has left the station I would not chase at I think it's like down to like - 110 do not touch that I do have him for three catches 3.05 catches to be exact but again that that was just like a clear miss price because I would have this closer to - 110 50 points of value on plus 140 that is why I got there I also moved on Tommy Trimble over 19 and a half receiving yards I will try to pull that up right now let's see where that sec is maybe that's a play but otherwise I mean it looks like the whole DFS community is gonna play this guy in cash games at least maybe you can just get exposure there but let's pull up total receiving yards I do have like a website that should price shop it for us Tommy Trimble is at 20 and a half - 115 seems to be a consensus 21 and a half on pinnacle so 22 on draft games yeah I don't know I would not chase that one either I took Roshan Johnson over 30 and a half rush yards I'm fan dual - 113 I think that's still got to be in play that's just coach speaks saying that he is going to get a big run this week I just think this offensive line sucks in general probably wouldn't chase that one yeah 30 and a half minus 113 is still there on fan dual so if you trust that I wouldn't just because again we want to bet with like a mathematical edge the model says it is but that is also me kind of manually feeding an upgrade to Roshan Johnson carries this week wouldn't mess with that Nico Collins over five and a half receptions on fan dual - 138 I have him for seven so I hate to lay that much juice but there's an edge there George Pickens over 49 and a half receiving yards bet MGM - 115 Isaac Garendo anytime touched on I do think this game gets out of hand for the Patriots and we see Garendo you know Mason has so much work lately and Garendo is getting better his yards per carrier look solid he's picking up past blocking a little bit from the small sample size he does have I do think if this game gets to that spread at you know double digits in favor of Sam Fran that +550 I believe that's like a what is that like an 18% perceived edge of that hat or implied value of that happening let's look that up real quick on my calculator at +550 is 15% probability of scoring I have met 20% so a slight edge there but at +550 that makes my edge a lot higher so I will bet at 0.2 unit risk Travis Kelsey over 485 and a half receiving yards at fanatics - 115 we'll talk about that one Patrick my home's over one and a half passing touchdowns +105 I'm bet MGM I don't think that would stay long but I also would not hammer it and then a Mario Cooper over 50 and a half receiving yards fanatics -105 it's getting the cash games absolutely smashed last week even though it wasn't that good of a lineup I ended up just I was in a absolute blender before lock and where ownership was gonna be I thought that you know it actually came true here looking at the cards flipped over Alvin Camaro was 60 percent owned in most of my cash game thing so I did flip to him played Cam acres Alvin Camaro didn't do much Cam makers didn't do much but I just kind of rode the ownership but it really fucked me on quarterback I'm glad it did because it I was on Kyler Murray and I do believe I changed the playbook Sunday morning notified everybody on when daily I was changing it I got rid of quarterback was a written-up position for me there and I ended up just at the last minute going to Caleb Williams my model loved him we talked about him last week that was awesome he was like 1% on the cash played Brandon I uked if I'm to Smith the on Tae Johnson was a game changer for a 7% owned I did not understand when Owen played him last week at that price now everybody's playing him a thousand bucks more that's pretty funny Brock Bowers laid an egg Jordan Mason laid an egg bear's defense I played the quarterback in the Bears defense but whatever it passing the pay line with flying colors but enough that let's get into week four holy shit like I said when I started let's go with injuries I'm sure I'm missing plenty bangles Sheldon Rakins out DT they're big defensive tackle big good runstopper Trent Brown offensive line out PJ Hill out on the defensive side things Jordan love for the Packers likely to play Vikings Jonathan Bullard I believe is highly questionable one of their best runstoppers there Ivan Pace one of the linebackers who's honestly he's awesome and he's fast he is out Jordan as in likely back Texans Tinkdell is likely out Jimmy Ward is highly questionable their safety there that's going to be interesting Damien Pierce is out Joe Nixon questionable we'll see what happens Jaguars doesn't look terrible but obviously their team is pretty bad Evan Ingram is out Steelers linebacker Alex Heismith is likely out Jalen Warren is out pretty clean other than that like the Steelers D Kenny Moore is out for the Colts we talked about him he's like the only heartbeat on that secondary in Indy Ryan Kelly I believe is highly questionable and Cody pay is out Saints Chris Olave got hurt today so we'll see what happened sounds like a hamstring I was very interested in Chris Olavego into the week I'm just gonna be a hundred percent out I don't really mess with hamstrings DiMario Davis linebacker out and then a really good run blocker Caesar Ruiz out so honestly I think the Falcons defenses and play Raiders I don't know who is playing Michael Mayors out to Fante M's out Mason Crosby out I'm sure there's more I'm one of their pass rusher that thing yeah to find Diablo out Browns Jack Conklin doubtful that hurts Peter Strong doubtful and David Jocoo maybe back that could help some of your fans are long teams because I or season long teams I know a lot of people like David Nijoku this year Eagles Devont Smith out Lane Johnson and AJ Brown questionable Chargers Joey Bosa out Derwin James suspended for all the the bad it said he doesn't his career Joe all highly questionable just your Taylor cornerback highly questionable Justin Herbert somehow is questionable still with this high angle spring that will be very interesting but let's get into the actual games themselves first game I mean I think we're gonna fly through this and I'm sorry this is so late but I just had to wait for injuries and it was very hard to project these games and push them to our members over at win daily sports use promo code sticks if you want to sign up for 50% off but I can't post projections out until we actually have a relatively clear path on where the injuries are going so the first game is going to be the New Orleans Saints at the Atlanta Falcons we have an opening total of 41 and a half Atlanta laying two and a half that is now laying three and 41 41 and a half on the total pending on where you look terms of ownership I don't think there will be much on this game Kirk Cousins one and one percent owned their car one percent owned if you want to play that go ahead I just don't think this game has a ton of back and forth given the low total as well Beijon Robinson someone I'm very interested in he graded insanely well for me in the 80 mile everybody does think the Saints defense is you know very stout I guess if you want to say that but I don't know I've even said it coming into the season I don't think they're that good as they continue to get banged up I think this is a team you could run and pass on and they should be able to get and shoot us because we know that all offense is lethal Alvin Kamara sounds like he is going to be good to go I'm seeing ten percent ownership but they're both very expensive I would 100 percent lean to Beijon Robinson if you want to get different and pay up at running back this week because I do not think Beijon will be 15 percent owned there's just no way especially with all these injuries on the receiver side of things Chris Olave sixty five hundred like I said pre you know not pre-show but in the intro was very interested in him going into the week probably not anymore and his ownership says 11 there's no way I'm okay with Drake London at sixty two hundred you could do worse looking at the defenses we will see you know Jimmy Lake at Atlanta is going to run a ton of cover three that's why I really like Chris Olave same reason as last week like talking about how he does against own defense especially cover three he finds the open spot he had a great game last week and that was one of our core plays so I love that but it would be a boost to him and Alvin Kamara potentially the tight ends but the tight end situation there's a mess apparently Joann Johnson is just not the guy I do think this is more of a baseline projection for Rashid Shahid he was 25 owned in single entry GPPs last week that was the easiest fade in the world sure it could have blown up I know the deep ball was there and it's kind of in his hands maybe a little under thrown but the recency bias in DFS is unbelievable even in high stakes that people played that much Rashid Shahid blows my mind it's because it's a high total it's gonna probably happen this week with Arizona Washington and people probably chased the Terry McLaurin points and Terry McLaurin's a stud like Rashid Shahid and Terry McLaurin comparing apples to oranges but it's just wild just the mind set of DFS players and you know usually I do not fall into the trap of recency bias maybe I'm one player we'll talk about soon but yeah that's pretty wild but I do think Shahid bounces back so if you got him in season long don't just start him you know sit him because of the zero especially with all the injuries you probably need him but that is what Rashid Shahid is sorry I can't talk I've been on my computer for 14 hours today which had been a nightmare on the same side of the defense they're gonna run a good bit of man coverage mid-tier blitz rate I think this is just a big you know boost to Drake London his target chair versus man coverage should go up a lot apparent of the adjusted expected total yards model that we have at win daily sports and then pits I the only thing with pits like I think his ownership is gonna be nothing let's check that out one percent Kyle Pitts that is a very good upp play this week I don't think we get there with volume especially when this game is probably going to be a little bit slower now with all the injuries that are happening and you know potentially Chris Olave being out but Kyle Pitts is the longest reception if it's in like the 16 yard range I think I haven't pegged for like 18 and a half yards on his longest reception so I don't know where it's at fuck it let's just look it up why not there's no uh no producers no ad reads we got to do so if I'm just gonna piss away time to figure out what this prop is we'll do it because it's my show and if you guys don't like it just let me know and I won't do it next time but let's see longest reception Kyle Pitts 16 and a half so I don't know if you want to mess with something where we only have like a two yard edge minus the juice so I don't know I don't even know what I'm saying but yeah great GPU play there I like the Falcons defense especially with how banked up New Orleans is but there that offense can move so not like a must play or anything like that they're just cheap they're 2600 on draft Kings if you are a first-time listener first thank you so much if you're a multiple-time listener thank you even more for the support I can't say that enough I should have said that in the intro but this is a draft Kings main slate only show um if you've got fan dual questions or anything hit me up on twitter @stickspicks that is STIX P-I-C-K-S moving on to the next game Cincinnati Carolina we have an opening total of 46 and a half this game has been fed up to 47 47 and a half at some books Cincinnati was laying four and a half it looks like they still are Love Joe Burrow Andy Dalton I'm just not an Andy Dalton guy and we talked about that I thought he would be chalk last week if you played him with Deonthe Johnson as a value stack I think we even said it I think I did one lineup with that but again I did not play any Juwan Jennings which is complete oversight by me even looking at the model he was I think the second highest value on the board again I just kind of like set my lineups on like Friday and kind of commit to him and that's a flaw that I have so if you know move with the news I wouldn't say like always take your lineups but if there's something obvious like I'm not gonna say Juwan Jennings was obvious no one would ever project him for two touchdowns a little in three he was just a really good value and I needed that my value guy was Jalen McMillan if you watch the wind daily livestream I could have easily just got three hundred dollars more paid down on defense to play Juwan Jennings and looking at team totals the San Fran 49ers last week their team totals through the roof you want to get exposures to teams with high team totals it's hard to really pinpoint where that production will come from that's what I'm here for to hopefully help but so stupid to go to Jalen McMillan a guy with like a 7% target share I just really like the the coverage knowing that Sir Tan would slow down Mike Evans and he sure as shit did but Jalen McMillan just is not a priority in that offense Kate Ott and got the bump up of all things uh Joe Burroughs right around 10% ownership I love how I just completely change subjects but uh yeah going to the running bag sack Moss 5900 great spot Chuba Hubbard 5700 in a very good spot too it does sound like Trey Hendrickson will play on the Cincinnati side yeah we talked about Sheldon Rankin's already so yeah I think Trey's good to go but I do like just Chubba Hubbard just because he's 5700 is going to catch a lot of passes on draft Kings as valuable I the looks like inside the 10 and inside the five they do prefer Miles Sanders there so on Fanduel if Chuba Hubbard is chalk I would probably get out of that and go to like someone like Zach Moss assuming they're priced very similarly Jamartje 7700 probably one of my favorite wide receivers on the slate let's get into this coverage real quick for Carolina they're going to continue to play a ton of cover three and blitz a lot we talked about Joe Burrough Jamartje's when it is a blitz that is big boost for the X wide receiver which is him I also think T should get another you know bump up here and I finally start to get back to what the T Higgins that we're used to and get a lot of RB checkdowns I don't know why Chase Brown doesn't play more but Zach Moss has been solid he's a good pass blocker so I don't know but I do think Chase Brown is in a like milli maker type of spot here I wouldn't prioritize him by any means but against that cover three when they're not blitzing Mike Jaseki should be a good spot here but I don't know Eric all is getting snaps now too so I don't get why they don't love Jaseki just put him in the slot even though Yoshi Buss is pretty good too but yeah Jamartje's is clearly my priority play here he is 10% owned he's going to be a core play I think for me in all aspects of DFS this week Deontae Johnson 5630 ownership I'm seeing honestly I would 10 out of 10 there are 9.9 times out of 10 tell you to lock him in and cash I'm not gonna fucking do it I don't think I'm playing them in cash but if you want to know where the land mine is for most people if he goes off and you don't have him it's going to be Deontae Johnson he's going to be very highly owned so think about it Xavier Legatt 4800 with no Adam Thelin I'm interested in it I don't think I'm in love is it as in as in love with it is like some pretty sharp DFS people but this dude's a very good athlete has a lot of like debos Samuel into him and I know we went to South Carolina but maybe that's why they recruited him they saw some debos and I don't know they don't know the story but not bad Jonathan Mango 3300 I think you could do worse but this game should have a lot of back and forth both these defenses suck right now so I have a lot of interest in this game maybe on the early only slate I'll probably stack Joe Burrough with maybe Jaseki I don't know or T but Jamarjay is certainly going to be in there um tight end Tommy Trembl 2700 I'm seeing 20% ownership he's probably going to be the cash like can you play Deontae Johnson and Tommy Trembl in cash no you can't so I'm just maybe playing Chuba in cash or just fading the whole situation because there's just too much ownership in that game and it's still the Carolina Panthers much just like a 3500 8% ownership I'll take the under no way that that many people play him don't really need to talk about defenses either it's something I'm not really going to prioritize the Rams in Chicago honestly I don't know no interest in Caleb Williams this week Keenan Allen sounds like he's going to be back so that's good should mention that beginning but I don't want to chase points with Caleb I loved that matchup against indie talked about that and it kind of all came to fruition Matt Stafford 0% owned if you want to go back to Caleb I'm not going to talk about it but I don't like a Kyron Williams 7300 due to have like 30 touches last week great cash play seeing like 20% ownership I think that's someone I'll try to get to but not going to be a priority play for me in any way 4100 Roshan Johnson I have him for damn near like 60 all-purpose yards let me tell you on the dot what we have him for at win daily sports we got 10 that's like 55 but a decent implied probability to score touch on I may just punt and play him in cash because it allows me to get a lot different and get high tier wide receivers which I want to do instead of paying down for I guess not even really paying down for Deontay Johnson wide receivers DJ more Keenan like Rome I don't think this is a great Rome spot but the dude's really really talented and Caleb seems to like him a lot but DJ more 6700 probably a week I'm off of him I just don't want to pay that price and I don't see the back and forth in this game tight end don't chase the cool commit points another guy we kind of put in the GPP space last week but he is 0% known we did have a member shout out to him hit for a thousand bucks with a bear's double stack cool commit and actually maybe it wasn't a bear's double sec I think he went with me on Dallas Goddard on the Sunday show and that was my tight end lock kind of got lucky there but it was what it was like you can play those high total games with a ton of ownership and play the guys that do have red zone equity and don't have ownership and that was Dallas Goddard he didn't score touchdown but he went not so I regret nothing and my main GPP lineup had their second main I guess because the main one was with Jared Goff but the other one that did smash still did not have Juan Jennings was Caleb Rome and Dallas Goddard did not need a whole lot else to happen to make that lineup cash but you needed Juan Jennings to reach a ceiling I like both defenses in that game Minnesota going to Green Bay we got Aaron Jones coming back which will be fun packs defense with with Mr. Jeff Halfley they're going to play a lot of zone mainly cover three and not blitz a lot this should be a really good spot again for Justin Jefferson and honestly I wish Hawkins him was back as this is where he kind of thrives here in the KOC system against cover three but he's not back so I never I said last week I would never say Johnny Munson name again on podcast but I'm not going to go to Johnny Munn here but it should be a you know hypothetical take up in targets against cover three I just don't think he's a part of that offense very much should be a great spot for Jordan Jefferson and or I'm sorry Justin Jefferson Jordan Addison is coming back so he should be in a good spot based on the personnel but honestly Jalen Naylor is pretty good so hard to handicap is kind of what I wrote outside of Justin Jefferson and you could always play Aaron Jones going back to Green Bay he's very active in the passing game and I'm sure they're going to want to get him in the end zone at Green Bay for the Packers or the Vikings or defense we know they play a ton of zone and blitz a shit ton we talked about it every single time on this show I have no idea how to handicap the Packers offense hand up like Reed would be my preferred option I guess against the zone but I don't know like they mix and match so many wide receivers even like Bo Melton I feel like he should get more snaps than he does but it's like do you say Christian Watson can't really sit you know Romeo Doves is kind of like their ex and then Don Tivian Wicks get snaps too they play two tight ends I don't know not interested in playing this in DFS because I cannot tell you where the production is coming from running backs probably no ownership there's no ownership in the quarterback store and love not going there this week Josh Jacobs 6600 for 5% ownership I think he'll probably be lower than that I'm definitely interested in that but Minnesota is becoming more of a pass funnel I really respect what Brian Flores does on the defensive side of things he got so much speed into this defense and I think this probably why he like he was okay with letting Daniel Hunter go and he's a stud you saw him just wreck the Bears but I don't know I trust this defense so I don't love Josh Jacobs but a guy's gonna get probably 20 touches again 6600 not bad Aaron Jones 6400 good price wide receivers it's Jefferson or nobody for me it looks like the field is choosing nobody including Jefferson so if you want to get really different Jordan Jefferson could certainly have a ceiling game anytime of the season so go to that tight ends not talking about it defenses are fine Houston what was it opening total in Green Bay I'm sorry guys let's go to that Green Bay opening total is 43 and a half it's sitting there and the Packers are minus two and a half or three depending on where you're looking that sounds about right next game Jacksonville Jaguars going into Houston opened up at a 45 and a half point total it is pretty much sitting there or 44 and a half at some books Houston is now laying six I don't see how Jacksonville stays in this game they're going to have to pass and pass a lot so if you want to tell yourself that story maybe playing a 1% 5700 Trevor Lawrence who just looks absolutely lost this year but they got to be playing for behind in this game I can't imagine with or without Joe Nixon Houston struggling against Jacksonville's past defense or lack thereof CJ Stroud 5% owned fantastic GPP play as well running backs not gonna pay up for a Travis ETN but he is going to be very very low-owned if you want a game stack this game and think that Jacksonville can keep it close in division game you know it's not out of the realm of possibilities I don't hate it but that is such an expensive price tag maybe that's like an early only type of guy not messing with Houston's running backs with or without Joe Nixon Nico Collins is probably the best play on the slate Jacksonville plays a ton of man coverage I do not know why they don't have the personnel to do it I do worry we get help over the top on Nico Collins it should be a great spot for him and Stefan Diggs but with all the man coverage a ton of cover one and that's been around the Nielsen's thing with New Orleans and Atlanta like that's what he's going to do people don't change I guess and they do have a mid- to upper you know blitz rate so Nico Collins has it like an expected target share of 37% against man coverage he's just a beast man that's C.J. Stroud's guy so yeah probably a priority play he is locked for me in cash and the field loves him too he's going to be 25 30 40% own depending on what tournament you're playing love the upside on the comeback with Brian Thomas Jr. and also the volume that we should see with Christian Kirk Trevor's just got to go to him he doesn't have time to chuck the ball deep even though that you know that benefits Brian Thomas Jr. but Christian Kirk is reliable you saw against the bills he is still a good player all these guys on the Jacksonville side are sub 5% so that is where I kind of lean in the direction of GPPs maybe going that way Houston's defense is going to run you know a little bit of man but mainly a ton of zone and they do run a lot of cover four and cover three they cover four probably because they're leading a lot in these games even the last week they look like shit so again great bounce back spot by low spot for C.J. Stroud historically it's been this type of coverage has been a great bump up for Evan Ingram but he is not in this week so I don't know if you want to play Bretton Strange you could 3100 not a bad price Brian Thomas Jr. has really been their guy against zone but I do think that this is where they go back to Christian Kirk a lot just based on last week's success again we're kind of playing the reason he buys this was the guy I was talking about I do think Christian Kirk is in another great spot and they just have to they're not going to have time to throw against that pass rush for Houston it seems like they're all pretty healthy too so yeah I'm cool with all that the tight inside of things Dalton Schultz may be a sneaky play without Tankdale I don't know just seems like he's kind of getting phased out but without Tankdale we'll see let's see where these target chairs go I do think this is a good spot for like his over on receptions it is a pest one of the defense in Jacksonville and then Bretton Strange I'm seeing a 1% ownership I feel like people would go higher there but if everybody's gonna pay down to Tommy Trimble then yeah Bretton Strange as I bring back with Niko Collins or Stefan Diggs sure why not and Houston's defense obviously always in play against Trevor Lawrence right now moving on to the next game probably gonna start flying by a couple of these games Pit and Indy I mean play George Pickens played Najaharis no Jalen Warren this game opened up at 40 and a half it is sitting at 40 Pittsburgh going to I think Pittsburgh should be able to clean house here but we'll see you know I thought the Bears would be able to cover but they suck at least Pitt's undefeated and plays amazing defense I don't think I even have a whole lot to say about these defenses Gus Bradley on Indy very low book Blitzray gonna play a ton of cover three mainly all zone first cover three for Pitt it's usually the slot and Pat Fryer me with the first cover two that's where George Pickens the axe should just tear it up we should see some check downs uh Najaharis with not many people behind him if any I don't know who's even gonna spell him I should check that out I know I projected it and then should be a really good spot for Pat Fryer meith but this game has such a low total I don't know if Indy can score so I was interested in Fryer meith really interested in Pickens obviously in love with Najaharis without Jalen Warren there but we'll see what happens looking at ownership Justin Fields is way too cheap 5500 10 ownership I think he's fine cash play if you don't want to play like the Kyler Jane Daniels thing that everybody's doing this week you can get crazy in GBP's and play Anthony Richardson and honestly you could probably play naked running back with Najaharis and George Pickens or Fryer meith if you want to if you think this game could shoot out I think it's got the skill players to do so but the defense on Pittsburgh is just so good I don't want to like go there as a first second or tertiary option 7700 for Jonathan Taylor no ownership there again it's Jonathan Taylor you can go with it Najaharis 5600 way too cheap with no one behind him was it Jonathan Ward probably is the next guy I guess so yeah Najaharis should get as much run as he wants and you could run on Indy even though the Bears couldn't but yeah George Pickens let's check the ownership there that may be like a GPP darling same reason we love Rome with Dunes A and DJ more last week George Pickens 10% ownership I'm cool with it I think this is a great spot for him again I just worry about the pace no ownership anywhere else Michael Pittman 5800 like eventually we're gonna have to play this guy when the price gets that cheap I don't hate this spot for Michael Pittman actually but again maybe like an early only game stack to avoid all the chalk coming in the afternoon because even though there's no ownership on this game in the main slate there probably won't be as well on the early only slate besides Najaharis maybe a little bit George Pickens Denver the Jets I don't want to talk about this game you're not going to make me are you we we know Patrick Sertan I still like Garrett Wilson you're like you're not sitting on but you're probably not playing them in DFS Breeze Hall should fucking run down their throat I'm seeing 18 percent ownership on Breeze Hall 7700 my projections love them most projection systems out there do not worried about Braylon Allen Breeze Hall should fucking smash and we're gonna move on to the next game play the Jets defense if you want but I do think Denver keeps it close I like I said last week that was a great bet to Denver we did take them into points I didn't talk about that in the intro to the show but yeah I definitely mentioned that on last week's pod and played them in the survivor I'm sorry the the circa betting contest but yeah that was a a pick I felt good about the model loved it and easily I didn't think they'd win but I knew they'd keep it close I think they keep this game a little bit closer than the books think but I don't know Breeze Hall could just destroy them so I'm I'm gonna stay away and where did that game open I guess we should talk about that real quick open up a 39 and a half Jets minus 7 and a half sitting there no interest in that game besides Breeze Hall I mean and was already guess who I don't I think we're gonna see a lot more Mike Wilms not interested in that game we got to commit to it can't play everybody Philly at Tampa Bay opened up at 42 and a half sitting there no Devonta Smith I don't think AJ Brown plays but if they can get him back that'd be great I think this game has more appeal if he does go and Philly is laying one so I don't know maybe the books do think AJ Brown's coming back as I figured Tampa would be favored only like guys to watch like I'm not really interested in Paris Campbell Johnny Wilson's like six foot seven he was with Can Coleman at Florida State those fuckers are huge that was a fun we're saving core to see I don't think he moves very well I don't think his hands are very good but he is huge he's got to be a red zone thing but not really interested Chris Godwin 6800 on the inside of Philly we talked about it last week while we loved Chris Alave and how he gets shifted around Chris Godwin pretty much just sits in the slot which should be a great spot but I'm not paying 6800 for Chris Godwin this week but he is a cash viable player moving on to the afternoon not chasing Dallas Goddard by the way I just want that to be known and not chasing Kadon here's the game that has all the ownership in the world opened up at 50 and a half total Cardinals laying three and a half it is sitting now at like 49 pretty much everywhere and Cardinals still laying three and a half I guess I would lean the commanders but like I said on multiple shows ago I don't really like to play the against the spread game too much unless my model thinks there's like a a big edge on a game and it doesn't have it here it pretty much has a spread like right at three so no edge Kyler Murray Jayden Daniels I can't say anything wrong about them they're gonna have a ton of ownership Kyler Murray as I stand today is going to be my cash game quarterback but Jayden Daniels would be number two just some fields honestly maybe number three but yeah you you know what to do this game has no defense on either side Arizona does look better they look solid against the run too so Brian Robinson 20 percent owned probably gonna be a fade for me even without Austin Echler but with I don't know I'm interested to see like I don't want to say it's a fade but I'm interested to see how Arizona handles like the QB spy situation does that open things up for Brian Robinson on paper it should but I don't know I'm probably not gonna play it a lot of Brian Robinson Jr. and he is going to be the guy that kills me if he does go off but he's gonna be 20 percent owned I'm just okay going elsewhere you know like guys like Chuba Hubbard Najahair is like they project about the same for me and I don't like it Jayden Daniels runs so much I just don't want to go line carries taken away from him the running back that I roster even though Chuba Hubbard may get go line carries taken away to Miles Sanders but we'll see James Connor on the other side 6500 great spot love him I think he gets in the box twice this week if you want to get not much different he's like 12 percent owned but relatively cheap exposure to this game James kind of would probably be my favorite guy to do so at the running back position talking about the coverage here we got Arizona with Nick Rouse they're not gonna blitz much not gonna play much man pretty much all cover three that should be an advantage to Zach Ernst and scary Terry Zach Ernst is my cash game quarterback where we stand today I doubt that changes Sunday I he just he runs a shit ton of routes he's good against zone he's not gonna have a ceiling game so I'm not really there in GPPs I don't I think that's a bad like game stack like what do you what do you want 12 14 points out of Zach Ernst I don't think that will move the bell from you where where his ownership's at let's actually check tight end real quick where his ownership's at I'm seeing 4% okay maybe that changes I may be interested in GPPs but he's like the safest pay down for me in cash with the volume that he received so I think he's like a stone cold lock for 10 points here and in cash that's great in tournaments I don't see much more than 14 so I probably won't go there even though the ownership is kind of telling me I want to Marvin Harrison Jr. 7500 that's awesome I like I'm worried that they're eventually gonna double him like how long can Washington just get their fucking shit pumped through the air to number one wide receivers every single team's doing the neighbors did it obviously Jamar Chase had a field day I don't know I don't know what you know Mike Evans scored twice I'm like everybody's killing them so yeah he's a great spot and they play man defense like Joe Whit what he's kind of the Danquin disciple too like good bit of man in their blitzing a lot they play a cover one and cover two Marvin Harrison against cover one she just I wrote good luck Washington so yeah Marvin Harrison 7% owned I think it's way higher than that but yeah he's close to a priority play I think I'm prioritizing Jamar Chase and Nico Collins over him but if you want to choose Marvin Harrison Jr. by all means I just have this weird feeling that James Connor can kill him or they're gonna double him and guys like Michael Wilson and I'm not gonna say Greg Dorch but Michael Wilson and I don't know a lot of Higgins can't get like that's why I feel like you got a double Marvin Harrison if Michael Wilson beats us and James Connor like sack the box put two on Marvin Harrison see what happens like Trey McBride not playing I think is a problem for Marvin Harrison but that is just me speculating I'm not trying to talk to all of them he is in the nut spot with Nico Collins so love that but probably won't have enough of it if that goes off to if Brian Robinson and Marvin Harrison go off my days dead so don't ask me how I'm doing Sunday night if those guys have a big day Terry McLaurin I'm okay with it like it should be good against a cover three but I don't know I think Zach hurts is my guy I don't think you're gonna get a ton of air yards against Arizona they do have a decent pass rush actually too which that roster is surprising Elijah Higgins honorable mention I guess at 3100 taking Trey McBride spot probably no ownership there and apparently no ownership on Zach hurt so I do like that a lot no England Sam Fran we're gonna pass that game if you want to play Jordan Mason he projects great the books love him I took that Isaac Arendo prop because I do think this game gets out of hand I don't think Jordan Mason gets 30 carries if they're up by 10 14 20 early I think we see a lot more Garendo maybe it's prop that is like mess with Garendo's rush yards if anybody pushes it but no Jordan Mason in a great spot if they get up 10 2014 whatever Mason's probably a very big part of that he's still only 6700 for someone that touches the ball that much he should be priced up at 7300 with Kyron Williams simple is that Casey and the Chargers we're not talking about the Chargers offense I don't know who's playing quarterback for him and then we'll get a we'll get out of here Patrick my homes 3% ownership usually I would be like yes you just take that and you take it twice and you play a third lineup and take it again this opened up at 39 and a half it's sitting there or at some books 40 I think circus got 40 and a half maybe they do think there's a little bit of offense or they just love the Chargers I love the Chargers or I'm sorry love the Chiefs I'm not playing Patrick Mahomes I hope I don't regret it because I've never passed on Patrick Mahomes at 3% ownership I can't tell you the last time it was at 3% ownership though for to be honest with you but the Chargers with Jesse Mentor playing a ton of zone they play cover 2 and cover 3 and they blitz a good bit Travis Kelsey kill zone really good against cover 2 really good against cover 3 received where I should get a bump up against cover 3 but if there's any day during James suspended I don't know I don't know if Travis Kelsey has anything left in the tank but he should get a lot of targets I haven't projected for eight targets over five catches so I am on his over as we talked about earlier it's now or never I think for me the guy's doing so many fucking commercials and like every other commercial I feel like I'm a tv's Travis Kelsey but it's in LA so you know the Hollywood maybe he comes to play for all his big donors from Pfizer and whoever else is paying them to do all these commercials so Travis Kelsey have a day let's check his ownership real quick 1% like 5800 Travis Kelsey 1% I'm interested was she rise 7300 great spot again I just worry about the back and forth but like where she rises up where Travis Kelsey's price has never been lower so I think if anything I'll go to Travis Kelsey or completely fade this game but 5800 against the zone without Derwin James in a dome in LA with all the commercial people that Travis Kelsey likes to hang out at I feel like he's got to have a day eventually 1% Travis Kelsey fuck that's gonna suck me and I bet love the cheese defense here 1% ownership if Taylor Heineke goes I we're gonna see Roman and Harbaugh take the air out of the ball so that's why I don't like love or she rice just because the time of possession I believe they are dead last in in uh play clock remaining the charges are yeah by a good margin too so yeah you know they're gonna take the air out of the ball they cannot afford to get in a shootout with Patrick Mahomes but they don't have I don't they don't have a running back Carson Seal is like okay he's just gonna run his heart out kind of like Isaiah Pacheco did but without the hands like Pacheco was a good pass catcher I that's why I love them Mahomes one and a half touchdown profit plus 105 like I haven't projected for 1.9 touchdown so yeah to get plus money on that where it's leaning towards two he's got to just throw the ball bunch it's just time in this game is probably just gonna run away the last game it's gross but I like gross I feel like this total should be fed up but I really worry about the Raiders opened up at 37 points on the total Browns getting one and a half they are now giving two two and a half depending on where you're looking noted onto Adams no Max Crosby we talked about all the injuries there there's more like let's look at this Raiders D whoever they do have they play a lot of man too a lot of cover one Amari Cooper against these corners these corners suck for the Raiders like that's why I'm interested I was blew my mind no one's going back to the spot after Andy Dalton and Deontay Johnson just carved them up to Sean Watson two percent ownership is my GPP quarterback this week last week it was golf and Caleb Williams I ended up playing cable Williams he cashed too so I moved my main lineup off of him to Jared golf but the secondary one had him but I should have played him in the main would have made a lot more money because it's higher stakes but it is what it is there's no one on the Raiders defense that is shooting up on Sunday they can hang with Amari Cooper if Dave and the Joker comes back I think I'd bump Amari down a little bit I project the Joker in there but kind of is like a little bit of a pitch count but dude against cover one with that personnel that they have and they're going to be blitzing good luck with Amari Cooper so if the Sean Watson doesn't suck this should be a good spot for him running back strong forward 5700 good spot for him as a mere white Alexander Masson I'm good for now Amari Cooper three percent ownership though he's one of my favorite plays in internment so I will stack him with I just Sean Watson again I see how see how much I can lose this week when you know a plate loved him against Jacksonville great first drive and then just stalled out on the other side without Devonta Adams I wrote about it in July I went daily about like my players to watch this year Trey Tucker was on that fucking list so kind of how I found Nico Collins and like really started to believe in him four years ago or whatever it was Trey Tucker's been on my watch list I know he had a big game last week and that's another guy that I hate buying the recency bias on but he is good he gets separation he can go deep 3600 as a bring back in this game a value bring back like Amari Cooper's only 6300 I think everybody plays Brock Bowers so I that's why I worry about that ownership on Tommy Trembel I don't think that's actually true Brock Bowers is like sports books have a damn near six catches 60 yards like everybody should play that at 5600 I like Trey Tucker Jacobi Myers 5500 I'm okay with it but again this gardener menchoo so it's like as much as I thought this game would have a higher total and higher back and forth both these teams do have a very good pace of play on offense they play quick and they have a higher pass rate of expectation than the field so this is my GPP like mini stack it's going to be Deshawn Watson Amari Cooper and probably Trey Tucker and then you could afford the world otherwise play Brock Bowers if you're smart like Trey Tucker is definitely like a landmine but I really do believe in this kid I think he's a great route runner if he hands but those are getting better so I'm I'm gonna ride it on the tight end side of things not playing to Joku even if he comes back we'll see what happens there in Brock Bowers if he's actually 5% on which I'm seeing right now then you just play him and you get Trey Tucker the fuck out of your lineup but um Travis Kelsie for 200 bucks more than Brock Bowers just seems interesting but that is it thank you so much for tuning in I guess if I had to give you like a cash core right now my lineup let me pull it up I did say I'm playing Roshan Johnson and cash right now just because what it offers like allows me to do I do not like that I would not recommend that I will not put it in like my core with my core for cash would be Kylo Murray, Najee Harris, Niko Collins and probably Zach Earth's I'm very interested in Jordan Mason I'm not sure if I'm going to lock him in I really want to get you March Ace I got to figure that out but Niko Zach Earth's Kylo Murray and Najee are not going anywhere so those four are for sure in my life I just got to figure out what I'm doing if Jordan Mason's ownership is actually that high but check out windailysports.com promo code sticks for the playbook on Sunday morning or just tune in on YouTube at windailysports page on YouTube it will be a free live stream all your seasonal and DFS questions will be answered there but thank you guys so much for the support can't say it enough all the feedback has been fantastic this far and you know I just want to say thank you so much for that good luck to everybody this week hope to hear from many of you in my DMs are on Twitter that you hit like the guy last week 4,000 so shout out to him didn't know if you wanted to me to say your name or your your handle on Twitter so I'm gonna keep that low profile but go get him this week then go all right fella we're recording now so it's live go ahead pick on me the way that you want to did I say that I would say that to my son man I mean come on man just go this isn't CBS all right be quiet for a few seconds why would people want to listen to the Sims complete podcast well a couple things one if you like to see sons pick on their father this might be the place if you want to see a place where the father just kicks the out of his son this would be the place what do you like about it man ditto father son dynamic duo talking about the game of football that we love and share and appreciate together and you know hey it's an extension of what we did right growing up I was able to watch my father play football then obviously watch him as a broadcaster and then he taught me the game of football and share the wisdom that he learned throughout his playing career and you know hey sometimes we're full of it and sometimes we're we actually know a thing or two well we do do a lot of research at least I do you you little spotty but you know you're you hang in there it's fun I love doing this and it's been awesome sims complete check us out wherever your podcasts are available on the believe network appreciate it see you if you like the show please take a moment to rate review and subscribe it really does help the show to grow thank you for listening [BLANK_AUDIO]
