– Every team, every topic, everywhere, this is Belize. – Week 3 NFL DFS main slate breakdown here at the first and sixth podcast. Thanks for all the support thus far. This season, if you haven't checked out the NFL playbook, all David Jones plays all the game-by-game breakdowns over at Windaily Sports. Sign up with promo code STICKS, that is STIX. You can find me on Twitter @STIXPICKS, that is @SticksPicks. If you've got any season-long questions, DFS questions, honestly, just reach out. Anytime, DM, tweet, whatever is your method of reaching out. I'm happy to help at any time. If you want my help of not, maybe my help sucks. You never know. But I'm excited to get to Week 3. Very, very interesting slate. I think it's a lot of condensed ownership. I have not looked at ownership projections that much thus far. And we will get to those, I guess, a natural raw reaction on the show. So that'll be a lot of fun having a nice spotted cow here on a Friday night. I apologize for getting the pod out so late. It has been a hell of a week at work. But let's go over the quick, good, and bad from Week 2 here. The cash game was phenomenal. Here was the cash game core. It was Cooper Cup, Chris Godwin, Jordan Mason, and James Connor. And I also had Elle Lazard in both cash and GPPs. Elle Lazard didn't do shit. So that sucked. But, of course, he goes off on Thursday night football. The very next game, like, dude, I would have absolutely smashed a slate. If you just do a little bit of anything, I played to Sean Watson in GPPs and a Mari Cooper as well. And most of them, he sucked, but in cash, that cash line was well through the pay line. So again, that core of plays is always on Wood Daily Sports. And I pretty much go through it on this show as well. Malik Neighbors was also some we talked about in cash. He was a damn near-free square. Went off, did not play in tournaments. Probably should have done that instead of Mr. Mari Cooper. But I am in ownership whore and saw a 20% ownership on Malik Neighbors. Like, all right, I'll go to Mari Cooper at like two to five jokes on me. I got that wrong. In terms of the bets, I think I've talked about them on the show. Derek Carr over two 16 passing yards that hit. Dak Prescott over 23 and a half completions that hit. Gardner Minshu over 200 pass yards hit. And they won that game. That's pretty wild there. Henry over 69 and a half rushing yards that hit. Also, these bets are in the playbook at windailysports.com or on the free sheet that I share on Google Drive. If you want access at again, just reach out to me on Twitter. The losses here were Devin Singletary over two and a half receptions. Hayden Hearst anytime touchdown. J. K. Dobbins under 56 and a half rush yards. He shoved it up my ass. He went for 100 again. Good God. And then Brock Purdy over 19 and a half completions was a hit. Overall 2.28 units of profit in week two after 1.25 in week one. So I love to see the model running in the right direction. Week three bets so far on the sheet have been the Jets minus six and a half. Absolutely smash that one. That was pretty easy. I do have tanked L over three and a half receptions on fan dual minus 120. That line has left the station. I think it's like minus 150 now. I would not bet it anymore laying that much juice. You know, $1.50 to the buck is rough to do. I think fanatics is still laying minus 130. I'm okay if you want to chase it otherwise stay away. C.J. Stroud over 22 and a half completions on fan dual minus 114. I went against Justin Jefferson. Actually that was one of the good calls on the GPP set of things. Justin Jefferson was a priority for me again in week two. Got it done. That sucks. He left the game a little bit banged up but he went well over 100. The touchdown obviously the 98-yard touchdown from Sam Darnold. Helps a ton on double coverage by the way that avoid Justin Jefferson. I have him under 76 and a half receiving yards on draft Kings minus 110. Is it mere white anytime touchdown plus 105 draft Kings. Roman Dunes over 35 and a half receiving yards on fanatics minus 109. I believe that line is gone but I'm okay chasing that up to like minus 130. And then Kyle Jusek I saw his receiving prop at 18 and a half receiving yards. I went under on fan dual minus 113 but that is a trap line. I think they're begging for action on the under. He's probably going to be well utilized and I'm stupid for betting that but I just refuse to believe Kyle Jusek going over 18 and a half receiving yards. Watch him do it on Sunday probably but I would not recommend. Let's get into the slate here though. We got the first game and we're going to fly through this week I think because there's really only like four or five games worth talking about. But let's get after the chargers at the Pittsburgh Steelers. This opened up as a 35 and a half point total. Steelers minus two and a half and that is currently sitting at Steelers minus two and a half and the total at 34 and a half or 35. Depending on where you're looking. Honestly on the GPP or cash side of things I think we're going to stay away. It sounds like Justin Herbert does have a high angle spring is what he said. Shit we forgot injuries. Let's go to injuries but yeah we're not talking about that game. I don't think there's really anything you want. If you need to punt tight end go to Pat Frett like whatever. George Beckins probably zero percent ownership. I'm not even going to go through the ownership in that game. Just not interested in it and a game with a 34 point total. But here are the injuries so far. CMC is obviously out. Kenneth Walker very unlikely to play. I'd say he's out. Jordan Love it sounds like he's likely to go. Justin Herbert as we spoke about is very highly questionable. Joe Mixon and Damian Pierce sound like they are out. Looks like Cam Acres Freesker square week. We'll talk about that in a bit. Reheam moster out. Cooper Cup out. Depot Samuel out. Jordan Addison out. Keenan Allen out hence the room. Don't roam a Dunes they play and we'll talk about the coverage there. Michael Pittman is questionable. Sounds like he'll go to Forest Buckner. Obviously he got that sucks. He's such a good player got hurt in the Packers game. He's going to the IRA. Jay Brown is out. Dave Nijogu's out. C J Gardner Johnson. Mr. always likes to talk shit on the field. And if you guys know the Anthony Miller story. Man, we don't need to get back into that. One of the we're not talking about it. We're not going to talk about it Nick. We're going to move on. People don't forget for the Eagles DB there. Banged up very highly questionable. It sounds like George Kittle doubtful. Greg Dorch got hurt today at practice. Hammy it sounds like. So probably highly questionable for him. Don't mind that moving on to the next game. I love this game actually opened up at 43 and a half point total. A pick them. It is a pick them pretty much everywhere. Maybe the Colts laying one against the bears here at home for the Colts. And it's total is still at 43 and a half. Let's go through the ownership. I'm just going to drop the bomb right away. Caleb Williams is probably my GPP quarterback. I'm seeing two to 3% ownership. This 5600 is going to run a little bit, but this is the first game the bears have that. Caleb Williams and this offensive line should be able to breathe. So DeForest Buckner obviously being out helps a ton. He's more of a run blocker, but still a great pass rush player as well. I got in these defense here with Gus Bradley. Very, very, very low blitz rate historically. They have brought a little bit more pressure this year than anticipated. But with DeForest Buckner out, I think that's going to change a lot. All they play is own and a ton of cover three. So honestly, I think this is a great spot for DJ Moore. I think this is a great spot for Roman Dunes. He sounds like he is 100% good to go. I really dissected chain Waldron's history against cover three in teams that don't blitz a lot. And honestly, it was very surprising on the uptick in targets. Perazran for Mr. Tyler Lockett and a lot of people think Tyler Lockett was a slot receiver. Honestly, or not, fuck it, honestly, whatever. I don't know what I'm saying half the time, but he had the highest outside routes ran rate of his career since 2016 last year with Shane Waldron. And he got a pepper with targets. He was honestly had an equal target share with DK Metcalf and any other coverage that was always a big, um, you know, uptick for DK Metcalf. So to see Tyler Lockett get that much love against cover three and teams that don't blitz a lot. I think this is a great spot for Roman Dunes. I don't think he's going to go for like 100 yards and eight receptions. Like DJ Moore should absolutely crush this. And we want to take the outside receivers against India, not going inside against Kenny Moore. Kenny Moore is a stud, but yeah. So for Roman Dunes. They being 4200. That's just too cheap for a guy that has that type of upside. He can, he, I loved his player, proper 35. So I think he could hit it in one catch. But we'll see. If I had to choose like, obviously, my favorite play in this game would be DJ Moore. I would love to stack him with Caleb Williams, but the way I'm kind of designing my lineup seems like Devonta Smith is going to be a priority for me. And pending on the ownership when we get to the same game, I am loving Chris Olave and I love Marvin Harrison Jr. again. So how about that? I said, I don't want to play Russian Roulette with Marvin Harrison Jr. On last week's pod. I probably should have fucking played Russian Roulette with Marvin Harrison because he went nuts in the first quarter. I think that was pretty much his whole game is in the first quarter. I went to James Connors. I'm not too mad, but man, like a 5% of Marvin Harrison Jr. Last week you do damage and he was pretty cheap. DeAndre Swift, 5600, like 8% ownership, whatever. I guess this is probably the best spot for him so far this season, but that isn't seeing a whole lot. Jonathan Taylor on the other side, definitely interested in him at 7300. I was going to run a pack with Pittman. It sounds like he is highly questionable too, which we talked about. DJ Moore is 6700. I'm seeing 13% ownership. I did not think the field will be on DJ Moore. I do think the ownership will be lower. There's just too many guys in that price range at higher total games that have had multiple weeks of success already this season. I feel like the public will always go there. Check the box scores. Check the totals and the bet. All right, DJ Moore is my guy. Romadunze, I'm seeing 0% ownership. I think it'll probably be around the one to two range, but at that point, does it even matter? You will be different by playing Caleb Williams and Romadunze. Again, this is my tournament lineups for the record. I've played Daniel Jones, week one, Sam Darnell, week one. I did play Kyler Murray last week, but I also had a lot of Trevor Lawrence and Deshawn Watson, so my GPP advice outside of a couple one-off players like Jefferson last week has been absolute dog shit. Kind of the way I play though, I'm playing to find a clear path to get first place and otherwise not cash if it doesn't go well. I think this game is very up-paced. Both these teams rank inside the top 10 in average playcock remaining, pace play like they are quick. I don't think these defenses are that good, but I do think the Bears defense is probably a great play for cash games at 2,600. Josh Dylan should be back too for the Colts, which should help that offense, but hopefully Michael Pittman plays. If he's out, I think my love for stacking Caleb Williams and Romadunze for the value is the reason I'm doing that. We'll die down a little bit. On the tight inside of things, Cole Comette, 0% owned against Cover 3, should be a bigger advantage for him to find soft spots in the zone too, not blitzing, not going to be held back to pass block a lot, and he's more of a route runner. The snaps for Cole Comette went way up in week two, but Gerald Everett's still a thing, and that pisses me off. So don't love Cole Comette, but if you needed like a absolute premium, or bottom of the barrel with upside type of stack, if you want to go, Caleb Williams, Cole Comette, and just pay up for the world after that. On a great slate, feel free to do so. Next game we have the Minnesota Vikings. Damn, KOC's got the boys rolling too and already. That's what I said early, like with the Saints of Kubiak, you got to trust it with KOC. Yeah, just trust it. And Ram Flores, great defensive mind. Vikings are good. This opened at 46 point total. Believe they are a two point favorite to the Houston Texans. That is true. Pretty much at every book. We'll go to the ownership here. Any like defensive stuff I really want to break down, not a ton. Obviously with D'Amico Ryan's a little bit of man coverage, they do play a lot of cover for, but they're winning a lot, not going to blitz much. I think this kind of like your usual suspects. I don't really see a big bump up for anybody on the Minnesota side. With Flores and the Vikings, we know they're going to play a ton of zone and a lot of blitz. This is a great boost for Tankdale against zone coverage. So I do have a reception prop on Tankdale, but it seems like the market agreed that that was a bad price when it opened. Again, if you do like prop betting and prop betting with like a perceived edge, all off the 80 model, not really off my heart. Reach out to me. I'll get you access to the sheet. If you're not a win daily member, that's fine. I'm not going to press you into joining that, but it's just a Google sheet. Every week it's updated. Also my golf plays and better golf plays once the golf season is back up and running, but it's been hot so far. So yeah, it's kind of where these bets come from. But yeah, love Tankdale here. Probably not going to play a whole lot of this game. Again, just can't play every game. But maybe if you want to go to the early slate, CJ Stradd and Tankdale kind of like a value stack. I'm cool with that. I don't think many people are going to play CJ Stradd. I don't think anybody's really going to go to the Darnell side. Looking at projections right now, they both are at 5%. I'll take the under at both. Aaron Jones, 5900. Pretty good spot for him, I guess, right? Like historically, this is a really good spot for tight end volume and Kevin O'Connell system against a lot of cover forward all the zone without the blitz. But also RB checkdowns is what I wrote here. So yeah, I don't mind Aaron Jones here. I just think it's a tough spot to run against them. But sure, 5900, if you get four or five catches, you know, 25, 30 yards falling in the end zone somewhere and get 40 rush yards, that's a pretty good day at 5900. So yeah, Aaron Jones, don't hate it. But I see him at 15% ownership in GPPs. Definitely going to hate that. But early only slayed or something like that. If you want to take another free square with Cam Acres, go ahead. Cam Acres, I do not see ownership yet. I think it'll be 40%. I will be the hardest pass in the fucking world on Cam Acres. In tournaments, in cash games, at 4700 on DraftKings, you're just going to take it. Again, if you're a new listener or anything like that, one, thank you. Two, this is a DraftKings focus show. If you have fan deal questions, be happy to answer those on Sunday at the live stream on YouTube for when daily sports or just hit me up on Twitter. But for the most part, my history with modeling has been easier to project volume than it is like the Boomer Bus touchdown stuff that DraftKings kind of rewards a little or fan deal rewards a little bit more than DraftKings. But yeah, Cam Acres will not play a GPP lineup with him unless I already hand built it in like the $3.20 max, just because that's kind of like my first read on the slate is like Monday morning. I'll just hand build 20 and fill that contest and forget about those lineups. But he won't be in like a million maker a single entry GPP for me, but in cash, it looks like he's going to be a staple for everybody. So just chase it and ride it. Ride it, I should say, not chase it. Who knows? Justin Jefferson, sub 5%, always going to be interested in him there. Again, just 8,600. Don't love this game environment as much. And I do love Devonta Smith and Chris Olave. Obviously love Marvin Harrison Jr. Especially with Dorch potentially being questionable. So it's like, all right, last week I planted my flag in Justin Jefferson the week before I did as well this week. Kind of just have to say bye, it looks like. But his price is way up from where it was last week. And that's not necessarily a past one with the offense in Houston. So it is what it is if you play Justin Jefferson, I get it. Maybe early only type of guy to get way different against stacking Stroud and maybe tanked L running back with Justin Jefferson on the early only slate to avoid all this ownership and variance in the afternoon slate. Definitely would be my route there. Stefan Diggs 6600. It's a good spot. Again, against own defense. Probably a really good spot for Stefan Diggs. He's always been really good at finding the empty spot in his own. Tank Dellum seeing 15% ownership. That's pretty wild. Not paying 7,300 for Nico Collins. Although I love him. Love you, Nico. I'm sure you're listening, buddy. Good luck on your lineups this week. Good luck on the field this week, but no, not playing you. Titan's not really interested in anything here. But Johnny Mont, again, like I said, according to the data and some of the half-ass film that I watched on just Kevin O'Connell last year, obviously it's TJ Hockinson. It's a lot different of a story. But Johnny Mont's running a ton of routes. Again, maybe on the early only slate if you need an absolute dumpster dive and you're interested in this game, potentially shoot now, because both these offenses are pretty good. Johnny Mont, maybe you take his reception prop if they even offer one. I don't know. I'm assuming they would open like one and a half. Let me tell you what I have on Johnny Mont's reception. It's just because I don't think I've ever said his name on a podcast before and/or in relation to him having a player prop. I have for three catches on the button. Look at that. All right. Well, the 80-model does. I don't, but Johnny Mont. Welcome to the podcast, man. Probably never say your name again. And I'm fine with that. The next game is going to be Philly in New Orleans. You got New Orleans laying three currently or two and a half, depending on what book. This game opened at 49 and a half. It's holding strong at 49 and a half. So much fantasy fireworks here. Like we've been talking about the Saints the first two weeks on the show. Saints, I mean, obviously AJ Brown being out of socks, but I don't think the Saints DB's inside or outside. Obviously we talk about going inside against Alante Taylor often, pulsing a deep light. I don't think he can hang on with Yvonne to Smith and even if Marshawn Latimore does come back and play in full, like I don't think he can keep up with Yvonne to Smith. He's such a good route runner. And they're probably not going to double him because he got Saquan Barkley, even Dale Scatter draws coverage. So I don't know. Like probably the usual suspects for Philly. It should be an inflated target share for Yvonne to Smith and had 6900. I think that's fair. I'm fine with playing that. Check the ownership on the quarterbacks, 7% for each. I'm sure people are going to chase their car, which also pisses me off last week. This is one of my flaws in DFS. I think I set it on the show. Like my first game that I love to stack when the slate opened up was Dallas and New Orleans. But I was so committed to playing Dak Prescott and CD Lam and running it back with Lavi and Kamara. Just great. Those lineups fucking smashed for me, but I had no interest in running anything with the other side. Like if you love a game, play both quarterbacks. Get a couple different variances of it. But man, it just played their car. If I love that game, why did I not? I didn't even look at their cars. Like, yeah, no, I'm good. I know I like a Lavi. I'm not really a Shaheed guy, but I do like him in this spot a little bit. I loved Alvin Kamara last week and put him on the GPP side of the playbook. But dude, it's like, why don't you just play Derek Carr too? Like I said, you get a game sack to shoot out of this one. And I did it, put all in favor of Dallas. And Dallas fucking sucked last week. So where'd he go, Nick? All right. I don't even know what I was ranting about. We'll go the other side of the defense here with New Orleans. Where did I put your defense? We already talked about New Orleans. I'm sorry. Philly's D. We're going to see if Vic Fangio knocked Blitz much. Mill of the pack and the man coverage rates, but a lot of cover three on the zone side of things when they do play a lot of run or a lot of zone. And honestly, that has been a spot where Chris Olave has been extremely successful, very good against cover three. I think this is a game where maybe receipts of heeds, it's not a little bit. Obviously he can catch a six year touch on anytime. It seems to happen every fucking week now. But Chris Olave, I'm thinking this is his breakout spot here. And I do think ownership will be down. Let's get to that for a raw reaction. Running back side of things, Saquon under 10% definitely going to be interested in Saquon Barkley. Anytime he's under 10%, Alvin Kamara, north of 15. But again, with this offense, you probably just keep riding this guy. If you could afford Alvin Kamara, go get it. I'm all for it. Only concern there is Taysom Hill sounds like he is going to play, but I don't think Clint Kubiak's in a mess with Alvin Kamara. He's been so, so successful here. Chris Olave's got 17% ownership projection. Fuck me. I'm sorry, I'm fired up. I thought he'd be like 5% to 10%. But again, people are just seeing the total. Playing the show of this game. Devonta Smith can be north of 22%. He is going to be a cash game lock for me on DraftKings. Chris Olave more of a GPP side of things still with the 15% ownership. Only 10% on Shaheed. I figured people would chase the recent production in the price. It's only 5,300. Like for what he's doing, he's well worth that price. Maybe someone I will consider in cash and go to Olave and GPPs. Again, Olave's not going to be getting much different in tournaments, but Caleb Williams and Roman Dunes, they sure are. So I think I'm safe on that regard. Tight inside of things. I don't know. Dallas Goddard, 4600. He's got a 4.5 catch prop at most books. I will tell you what I have him for. Again, I think this is a good spot for him, definitely. But I'm probably just going to jam in Devonta Smith everywhere. Dallas Goddard, I got for 4.26 catches, 45 yards. So I think that's really close to the market if I had to guess. I'm okay with it. 4600 for a guy that's going to get that type of volume on a weird tight end week. Like Mark Andrews is 4800, that seems easy. I'm assuming ownership for him will be nuts. Otherwise, like Trey McBride, it's nobody. So you're either taking Trey McBride, Andrews or you're paying down. So maybe Dallas Goddard is a forgotten man and is at like 2% in a game with a very high total. That should be back and forth and has a ton of Renzo equity. Dallas Goddard is going to make my GPP playbook on the website. Next game, what do we got? New York Giants at the Cleveland Browns. Opened up with Browns by six and a half, that is holding true. Total opened up at 38, pretty much holding true. Maybe bed up to 38 and a half if you even want to consider that. I don't know, like Amari Cooper, again, grades so fucking well for me. I'm not playing Deshawn Watson because they were, I mean, that first driver Deshawn was so good. Amari was no part of it, but Deshawn looked great last week. Inking in comparison to what we've seen. Shopify gives you everything you need to take control and take your business to the next level. 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LinkedIn, the place to be to be. And then they just took their foot off the gas and then when Jacksonville got it close, they couldn't really do anything. So I'd like I still have a ton of concerns for that offense, but I do not think the Giants will be able to move the football very much in this game. Cleveland's defense is very healthy. It looks like offensive line of incongruence questionable. Obviously if he goes Jerome Ford is in an excellent spot here. We did talk about Brian Robinson last week a little bit. Jerome Ford is the same price as B. Rob was last week. I see Jerome Ford at 3% ownership projection. Seeing that much down to form last week was a little bit alarming, but I mean Jerome Ford was just so much more effective when he touched the football. I'm sure the lean back into him, he had such a big workload week one. So maybe it was just like a wrestling and that game was kind of like, despite the score was out of reach for Jacksonville pretty much after that first drive or second drive. Malik neighbors 6400. I mean this dude is just going to get peppered with targets all year long. A Mark Cooper, I'm actually seeing a 10% ownership. Seeing Malik neighbors for 10, I'll take under on both of those guys. There's no way that many people plan, but a Mark Cooper is in a fantastic spot. Just not really a back and forth type of game. The Giants have a fucking team total of 16 points. So you don't necessarily need a ceiling game for Mark Cooper at 6100 and GPP's a payoff. If he goes for you know 90 and two, that'll be a hell of a game and they could stop passing the whole second half and 90 and two is very reachable for his range of outcomes in the first half of the game against the Giants. But other than that, not really interested in anything in this game, besides the Browns defense, I guess, but yeah, moving on over to Florida. We got Tampa Bay hosting the Denver Broncos opened up at Tampa minus six and half. Looks like the Broncos are getting some action bet down to six and five at some books that I'm looking at offshore. The total is 41 sitting at 41, some books 40 and a half. A relevant to the listener, I would assume I do like Denver in this game. My 80 model, if you look at wind daily sports, you go to adjust expected team totals. That is basically projecting all of these scoring minus special teams. Usually what I like to do is kind of, you know, there's a little bit more of an algorithm to it, but just add one and a half points to the home team, do the difference there. And you can see what I would have the spread out. And I believe that had Denver proper at getting four to four and a half. So I'm going to take Denver at six and a half on the books that still have it. May even bet it up to seven and play like, you know, minus one 25 minus 130. But I do think Denver kind of keeps this game close. In terms of fantasy, I don't know, like what do you do? I'm not really interested in Baker Mayfield here. It's not a really back and forth game bow. Next was interesting for me in the beginning, but I think I'd rather have Tampa's D. Baker Mayfield is going to come in at like five percent ownership. Probably not a spot. I want to play Baker. I'd rather have the back and forth nature. Looks like the public is going to like Rashad White. I'm hard past there. One, he's kind of binged up with the growing stuff or the hammy. Bucky Irving looks pretty good too. I don't know, just becoming a little bit more of a timeshare than I'd like. To Fontaine Williams, no interest. Jillian McLaughlin again, no interest. I don't think this game gets a crazy ton of pace. Mike Evans, 6,200. I think Pat Sertan is just absolutely for real. He's kind of shut down everybody's face. Five percent ownership, no dice for me. 6,500 Chris Godwin, 15 percent. Probably more of a cash play, I would imagine. I don't see this being a ceiling Godwin game, but he has just been so damn successful to start this year. He's getting pepperwood targets, doing a lot with him after the catch too. Very un-Chris Godwin-like. 5,400 Cortland Sutton. What should be a pass from a defensive Tampa Bay? I don't really respect many of these DBs, and they're going to play a lot of zone too. So, Cortland Sutton, historically, pretty good at zone. Obviously, I'd prefer him like one-on-one man coverage. I can say beatable corner, but I'm okay with Cortland Sutton. At 5,400 tournaments at like 2 percent ownership other than that. Greg Dulcich is running a ton of routes. 5 percent ownership. I'm seeing it at 2,900. So, maybe some people are punting tight end. I don't hate Dulcich here. No interest in K-Dotten. Again, Tampa's D, probably my favorite play in the game. Next game is Green Bay in Tennessee. Yikes. What do we do there? Skip it. We'll see what happens to Jordan Love, but Titans opened up as a 2 and 1/2 point favorite, total of 37 and 1/2. It is now a 3 point favorite at most books or 2 and 1/2 at others still holding strong with a 38 to 38 and 1/2 point total. Not very sexy. Not going to lie there, but I don't know. I mean, Jordan Love will see if he plays. Not going to really talk about the quarterbacks. Probably not playing Will Love Us. I'm cool with that. Josh Jacobs, 6,700. Probably going to get 20 touches again. 5 percent ownership. Tony Pollard. 6K flat and under 5 percent ownership. Holy shit, if that is actually true. Sign me all the way up. I'm going to play a ton of Tony Pollard at 6K. I thought he'd be a cash staple for most people. At that price, Taji Spears is going to play, but he's a little bit banged up. Like this offense is going through Tony Pollard. You could run on Green Bay. Tennessee's offensive line is just full of monster men and they are relatively healthy. So yeah, Tony Pollard grades fantastic for me. Kind of like his rushing prophet. Didn't have that much of an edge on it. So the market likes him a lot too. Not touching any receiver. I like Tony Pollard and if Jordan Love doesn't play, I'm going to pair him with the Titan's defense. Looks like the Titan's defense will be the chalk. Maybe I will not pair him with the Titan's defense then thinking about it. And maybe if Jordan Love plays, that gets people off the Titan's defense and gets me back onto them. So I'm cool with that. Moving on to the next game, Miami Seattle. Zack Charbonnet is still free. 6k flat. I think he'll have the ownership. Oh, yeah. 20 percent. Give me Tony Pollard over Zack Charbonnet all day in these matchups. I don't hate Charbonnet. I'm just, I don't even think I'm really considering him in cash. I'll put him in the playbook, but he will not make my cash line up. Unless his ownership does keep creeping north of 20. I see 20 percent of the population playing Devon Achan. I don't like any player in this game. And I am probably not playing any of them in cash. That would be a full fade for me. So maybe I'm different by just disassociation of that game. So cool. If that phrase makes sense, please let me know. I think it sounded like it did. Next game, Las Vegas hosting the Carolina Panthers. Andy Dalton getting the nod. Bryce Young done Zell Washington. So it was a good run. Bryce Young will see what happens. Maybe a trader or a change of senior. I don't know. I just think that dude is scared in the pocket. He's obviously tiny. I did have a little bit of faith in him on the DFS side of things. Week one, just because I did love the Saints offense. And he didn't do anything. Both these quarterbacks around 1 percent ownership. I feel like people would play a ton of Andy Dalton in the past at 4800. Just because it's kind of a free score. I think his ownership will be higher than that. So keep an eye on ownership projections. The mere white 5500 every single running back has kind of turned a goal of playing Carolina. So maybe if there's any week for his mere white 5500, this would probably be it. If you have Madison, I don't know. I still think it's a mere whites. I mean, the snaps kind of say it's a mere whites job. But if you've got Madison like a deep league, it's probably not a terrible play. Just play both of these guys if you have to. But GPP only, I would certainly lean Zemir White not in love with it. But definitely like something I'd consider. But for 500 more to get to Pollard, if he's only 3 percent owned, give me Pollard. No ownership on any of these receivers. This could be a sneaky shootout. I still think, you know, the Raiders front five is good. But their DBs are beatable. If any Dalton is any bit competent like it was last year, he came to Seattle and just lit the world on fire his first game. Adam Thiele went nuts. You know, Deontae Johnson, probably a good spot for him 4900. You could probably stack this game. I'm going to do that. I'm going to do one stack, game stack of like... Like, yeah, I mean, I'd probably have to go with Dalton because I want to get Zemir White in there. So it goes to mere white and Devontae Adams. Probably avoid Brock Bowers, even though I probably shouldn't. He was a great play for us last week. That's goes to mere white Devontae Adams. Running it back with Dalton, Dylan, and Deontae Johnson. And then just afford the world for that. So maybe my angle on Caleb Williams, you could just take Andy Dalton and like a Deontae Johnson or a Dylan. I don't know. I just think the ownership on Dalton will certainly go up. It won't be 1 percent at 4800. You could just do so much with these high total games. If you just play a little mini stack with Andy Dalton. Titan Brock Bowers, great spot, 5,400. This guy is just a focal point of this offense. So feel free and J.C. Horn will probably travel with Devontae Adams a little bit. Devontae will kill him if that's the case. I'm not worried about J.C. Horn. J.C. Horn will probably get called for three holding penalties or three PIs. Trying to keep up with Devontae Adams and his route running. So not afraid there. I mean, this game does have a relatively respective total. Well, yeah, it's been up to 40 at circa, so opened at 38 up two points already. Yeah, maybe there's some garbage stacking you could do in this game and afford studs elsewhere. Obviously, Las Vegas D is probably still a great play in DFS. Detroit, Arizona, this game is going to have a ton of ownership. We'll filter with the quarterbacks first. Let's go to Vegas first as well. Opened up a 51 point total. I think this is finally a game. We just see a ton of scoring. The NFL has been obviously hurting for scoring and back and forth shootouts. Detroit getting two and a half on the road at Arizona. Getting three at some books too at circa three. I have this as Arizona minus like less than a point, so I'd probably lean. Oh, Detroit's a three point favorite. Okay, that makes more sense, Nick. I'm sorry, guys. It's late on Friday. Pet a couple beers already too. You know how it goes, right? I'm just human. I'm moving on. Kyle Murray, I'm only seeing like 7% ownership. I'm sure that's got to be wrong. Jared Goff for. I'm interested in both these guys. You don't really need me to talk about this game a ton. Do you like there's so much fantasy fireworks to go around in this game? There's so many different ways to game stack it. Honestly, one of the best weeks I ever had in DFS was I think the 2018 Rams at this Saints. This is when Girly was a thing. I stacked Jared Goff, Cooper Cup, and I don't I double stacked. Oh, I think I've made a head tag early in that. And then I ran it back with Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamar. If you look at that box score like that was it was fucking awesome. And I had to font a Parker at like 3500 in the in the Flex. I want to say is week eight or nine, but if you ever want to go see a box score of a game that just went back and forth the whole day and I just built a lineup. Like if that happens, my lineup has to be successful. I think that's something you could do here. But I also think the public is thinking the same thing. So keep an eye on ownership on the coverage side of things. I think this is a game we should probably break down Detroit defense with Aaron Glenn is going to have a good mix of coverages, but they will blitz a lot. I think this is great for the X, which is going to be Marvin Harrison Jr. And obviously against the the Blitz with how Arizona runs their schemes. I think we'll see a lot of Trey McBride in the middle of field and quick hitters. I don't think this is a great like yardage game for Trey McBride. But I think like cash viable, no doubt. I don't know if I want to go there and tournaments assuming that everybody's on him. I'm seeing 12% ownership. I will take the over on that. So let's see what Marvin Harrison's at. 4% Oh, if that's true, I am. Insert the tournament. Going to the running backs here are the other side. Nick Rallis, this show is just off the fucking rails. I'm sorry, guys, Arizona's defense with Nick is going to run a lot of cover three and a lot of cover four. There's going to be a boost for Amundra St. Brown again. Oh, also, how about that? The breakdown of Amundra against teams at Blitz at home last week was fantastic. He hit what was his average? I don't I wrote it down. It was like 22 fancy points on the button. I think he had 22 fancy points on the button. So good for the trend people out there. All you trend betters out there that one actually held true. Like Amundra got his against the team that blitzes a lot. My concern here's Arizona doesn't, but they just played cover three and cover four. Should be a ton of open space in the field for him and a lot of check downs to Jumier Gibbs. I'm seeing 7% ownership on Jumier Gibbs going to be very interested in that. Assuming when I click the wide receiver tab, I only looked at Marvin Harrison when I went there. Jameson Williams is probably going to be a free square of 5820% owned. I'm not interested in James Connor. You could always play David Montgomery for the touchdown narrative. Yeah, Jameson is going to be like 15% owned in cash. He'll be a staple for me. I think we said Cam Akers is going to be a staple for us in DraftKings and Devonta Smith. So so far, those are the three guys I'm definitely locking in in cash. 5800 for Jameson Williams in the targets that he's getting. I don't want to chase all the recent production. So I think in GPPs, I'm going to flip it to go to Jumier Gibbs. But I'm okay if you play Jameson Williams in GPPs too. At 5800, just get different elsewhere. I'm on wrestling Brown 10% owned 8200. Another great spot. I don't like it as much as last week, but it's I'm on wrestling Brown. Obviously, you got banged up a little bit last week too. But Marvin Harrison Jr., if he is 5% owned, because everybody's going to play Trey McBride and Kyler Murray stacks, then give me Marvin Harrison Jr., in single coverage against all of the different coverage that Aaron Colton is going to bring out who who will play a lot of man too. But there's going to be a lot of bloodseeing. How about Marvin Harrison Jr. Let's get it tight ends. We already talked about Trey McBride. No one's going to play Sam LaPorda. I personally don't want to pay 6K for him, but if you want to win a GPP, maybe go in golf. I'm on Raar golf, Jameson, Sam LaPorda, or just golf Gibbs, Sam LaPorda, or just golf Sam LaPorda. Sam LaPorda is probably going to have a breakout game here soon enough. We know how Arizona has been historically against the tight end. Let's get that DVOA against the tight end. Currently, they rank 13th against the tight end, so definitely a good spot for him. I worry that maybe Jameson Williams being so good and so electric is probably hurting Sam LaPorda, but he's going to have a big game soon, and he's one of the guys in the red zone. So yeah, I think he could be a difference maker in tournaments. For sure, I probably won't get there, but again, I can't play everybody. I wish I could, but I really will only do like 150 lineups at the MilliMakers five bucks, and it's not five bucks this week, so I'm not doing it. My 20 hand builds in the $3 thing just to hit so many money to see how builds work. It's probably as much as I'll get this week, and then just go straight to single entry and cash. Maybe a three entry max, I don't know, but early only site is also particularly my fancy a little bit just to be honest with you folks. A game that has another high total. 47 was the opener and a pick them. It is 48, 47 and a half pair where you're located in Baltimore minus one. I had this spread at pretty much a pick them. I have proper at Dallas plus a tenth of a point, so yeah, pick them. I don't think I'll lean Dallas in the spread. I don't think I'll bet this spread, like I mentioned last week. I don't really like to do a ton of that. The jets I had favored by eight and a half. So when I see six and a half, I'll definitely take that if it's minus 110, which it was. So that was great. Actually, it may have been minus one with five, which was like the public was on the pay trade. It's in Jacoby. Priscilla. They're at Thursday. Whew, yikes. Lamar, Dak, under five percent each. This is a game you can get way different at. I think this game can go back and forth. I had a ton of interest again in stacking this game. Derek Henry going to be sub five percent. I definitely think you could run on Dallas. I know the public doesn't think you can. Jim Rome for did it in week one. I know that game is kind of like weird, but yeah. It was kind of in garbage time when Jerome Ford did his damage in week one. But yeah, Derek Henry, definitely going to be a GPP type of play. I fear that this is the game I go underway on. And this is the game that really shoots out. And I don't know. I don't see Detroit in Arizona being a slow paced game, but yeah. CD Lam, five percent owned, 8800 people aren't going to pay up for CD Lam. You can get way different with him. Safe flowers, getting 10 targets a game. So five percent ownership or any cooks. It is what it is. Loved what I saw in Jalen Tolbert last week. Probably won't go back there, but 0% ownership. If this game does shoot out, that's fantastic. I'm on the defense side of things. I keep skipping that and I am sorry, Zach Orr for the Ravens. It's going to bring a lot of man coverage and bullets or low bullets, right? I'm sorry, but a lot of man coverage. A CD like CD should have a great spot. Maybe there's some cover too and help over the top. Kind of like what we saw with Garrett Wilson on Thursday, but CD's just moved around the field so much. I don't think you'd really stop him. If Baltimore scores a lot, CD should have a great game. So if you're comfortable telling yourself that narrative, get you a lot of CD Lam at sub five percent ownership. For the Dallas D with Mike Zimmer, going to see a lot of blitz, a lot more zone. So I do think that's a great spot for Mark Andrews. Getting inside the zone, it probably has a likely too, but it seems like Isaiah likely is doing a lot of his damage against man coverage because he's getting linebackers and safety zone them. And of course, the guy's talented as Isaiah likely should cook those guys, but Zae Flowers always been pretty good at finding the open spot in the zone. So yeah, you could stack the hell out of this game. Tight end side of things. I'm only seeing 8% ownership from Mark Andrews. Jake Ferguson is back. Should have mentioned that on the tight end injury report there. Yeah, this is a game again. I fear I don't have enough exposure to it. I'll probably make a game stack with this one too, like I would with you know, everybody's going to the game stack Philly New Orleans in Detroit, Arizona. Baltimore may be a way to get different in single entry. It's just game stack that one a little bit. And CD lamb being damn near priority play at this point, if he's going to be that low in ownership. But last game of the week here for the main slate on draft Kings, we got Sam Fran at the Rams. This is the walking wounded battle here. Opened up at a 45 point total, 45 and a half. Sam Fran lay in seven. They're laying six and a half now, 43 and a half point total. Definitely getting back down. Probably not playing any of the quarterbacks here. Both are going to be sub 5% owned. So you certainly could. But again, I'm probably not a Kyron Williams should get the just 30 touches. So if you want to tell yourself a narrative here, I would assume Sean McVay doesn't want to get in a shoot out here. But without D. But without Kittle, I don't know if that's possible. Jordan Mathan, 6200, probably too cheap. 35% owned. He will be in the cash game. So what do we got? We got Cam Acres, Jordan Mason, Devonta Smith. And who was the Jamison Williams? Is probably going to be in my cash game lineup so far. Leaning Kyler, I guess. But honestly, Dak Prescott at 6600, they can't run on Baltimore. I may go Dak because I probably can't afford CD lineup in cash. But Dak is going to be so low owned. I don't know if you need to do that in cash. But I still feel like my projections say that that is optimal way to go. So you can always get different in cash too, if you want to. Wide receivers, Brandon Iyuk, 20% on ownership. It's like, do you really want to play Brandon Iyuk and Jordan Mason and cash together at their prices? It's probably valuable. I hate to really invest that much into one offense. And it's like, it can't be that hard for the Rams to be like, Brandon Iyuk is not going to beat us. Put two on him, kind of stack the box. Maybe it gets proper Jwan Jennings. Interested to see Jordan Wittenton play a lot of snaps here for the Rams and see what his role actually is. I think a sixth round pick out of Texas. But sounds like he is going to run the routes of Cooper Cup did. I'm going to wait and see on that. And honestly, one of the guys I like that my model like to ton was Colby Parkinson grades. It's a big value for me. I'm seeing 1% ownership on him. I know everybody loved him last week. I do love playing the narrative that he disappointed last week. And now people are off that I can go back. But I have him for damn near four catches, 3.9 catches, 37 yards. Yeah, 3,600. I was kind of leaning cold commit for my punt and tight end. I think I'll probably lean Colby Parkinson now thinking about it. But yeah, that's pretty much where we're at. You could always play the 49ers defense against Matt Stafford. But I don't know. I think this is a game where they cannot throw the ball 35 times, but you never know Stafford always loves to chuck it. But thank you all so much for tuning in. Good luck this week. Again, the live stream at Windalee Sports is free every Sunday morning at 11 o'clock Eastern, 10 a.m. Central. We'll break down the slate, answer hopefully all of your questions. If we miss it again, just reach out on Twitter @SticksPix. If you're interested in signing up for Windalee, getting those bets, getting the team totals tool, getting all the projections for the players, like not just their fantasy points, but actually seeing how many receptions, how many yards, how many passing yards, how many completions. Literally everything that the ADMO spits out. We are now customer facing on the website. So definitely check it out if you want like a free trial or something, too, just to see if it's worth a shit. Definitely just reach out to me and we'll get it set up or I could just give you my login maybe, but don't let the boss of Windalee Sports know that I'll do that. But I'm here for the people. I'm here for week three. I'm here for everybody's success. Let's crush it this week. Good luck to all and thanks again for the support. Go get them and I'll see you next week. Then go. All right, Phil. We're recording now. So it's live. Go ahead. Pick on me the way that you want to. Did I say that? I would say that to my son and I mean, come on, man. Just go. This isn't CBS. All right. Be quiet for a few seconds. Why would people want to listen to the Sims complete podcast? Well, a couple of things. One, if you like to see sons pick on their father, this might be the place. If you want to see a place where the father just kicks the out of his son, this would be the place. What do you like about it, Matt? Ditto. Father, son, dynamic duo talking about the game of football that we love and share and appreciate together. And hey, it's an extension of what we did growing up. I was able to watch my father play football. Then obviously watch him as a broadcaster and then he taught me the game of football and share the wisdom that he learned throughout his playing career. And hey, sometimes we're full of it. And sometimes we actually know a thing or two. Well, we do do a lot of research. At least I do. You're a little spotty, but you hang in there. It's fun. I love doing this and it's been awesome. Sims complete. Check us out. Wherever your podcasts are available on the Believe Network. Appreciate it. See ya. If you liked the show, please take a moment to rate, review, and subscribe. It really does help the show to grow. Thank you for listening. [BLANK_AUDIO]
Stix is back with another week of Fantasy Football Gems and uncovered trends. The NFL Week 3 breakdown is LIVE!
