The Jon Sanchez Show
10/02-Is it time to get more defensive?
At Independent Financial, we know you work hard for your business. That's why we work hard for you. Our local bankers are ready to jump in and support your next vision or venture. And we have the resources to make it happen. Ready to get down to business? Let's talk. Learn more at iFinancial.com Independent Financial, banking for business, banking for life. Member FDIC. Good Wednesday afternoon to you. Welcome to the John Sanchez Show. One who's talked 780 kawates. Pull a letter to be with you. Pull a letter to be with my co-host Jason Gottem. He's both management. Big J. How you beat. I'm doing okay. Today feels like one of those days that just didn't happen. That's a good way to put it. I know. Our boring. There's going to be a lot of adjectives for today. I'll take it after yesterday. Yeah, for sure. Absolutely. Absolutely. Definitely take it. Oh, my guess. Hey, you ready for our webinar this evening at 6.30 p.m.? Yes, I am. I'm all ready to talk. I am too. I cannot wait. Hey, we still have openings. If you want to join us, what we're talking about are 12 months to retirement webinar. It's going to be this evening at 6.30 p.m. Boy, I tell you, this is a critical time period right now with all this market volatility, geopolitical tensions, etc. If you're within that 12 month window to retirement, there's many things that you need to make sure that you have checked the box on to make sure that you are ready for retirement. Medical insurance, life insurance, Medicare, filing for Social Security. What's the best Social Security strategy? Tax strategy, asset allocation, on and on and on. And we are going to cover that this evening again at 6.30. Want to sign up? Like I said, we still got some spots available for you. Just go to our website at sancheswealthmanagement.com and click on the upcoming events and sign up right there. No charge. No nothing. It's going to get our plus with you. Answer any questions you may have and just have a good time. It's what we like to do. Yeah, the only charge is you have to look at the two of us for an hour. You know? We should be paying them. Faces for radio. Yeah, exactly. No, we really enjoy it. We appreciate the opportunity and all of you that have signed up. We look forward to seeing you. Well, hearing you and then, you know, we can always turn your camera on if you ever wanted, but we just really enjoy it. It's a chance for us again not to be under such tight time constraints like we are every night on the show and just be able to sit down and help us. And talk about what we do for a living and how we help people plan for retirement and get ready. And again, I don't think the timing could be any better, Jason, as far as everything that's going on in this world right now. As far as people getting ready, I know a lot of people are very nervous right now. There's a lot of retirements coming up and people are very, very nervous at this point. And they don't want to make a mistake and that's what we're going to try to help them avoid is making any financial mistakes during this critical time period. Yeah, I mean, also the topic tonight, I think will be notable if people are concerned or defensive and so forth too, right? Yeah, absolutely, absolutely. It has been a long time since we've done a topic, as Jason is referring to about this evening, or that we're going to be covering this afternoon with you. And what we decided to do is say, you know what, so many of you, again, you hate to use this word over and over again, but are nervous about the geopolitical tensions. Before I get to that, Jason, I want to just say something and I didn't chance to tell you off air about this. But I had a phone call with one of our clients today and I won't say what industry he's in, but it's one that's very consumer cyclical oriented. And he said, and he works for a major Fortune 500 company and in the retail space, and I said, you know, hey, how's business doing? Because last time I talked to him, I was like, oh, man, things are just busy, busy, busy, and so on and so forth. And he goes, it's just dried up. He goes, we are so slow right now. And again, this is a major Fortune 500 retailer because we are so slow right now. Everyone's trying to figure it out, you know, what's going on. And again, I keep hearing this. I don't know if you're hearing it from our clients over and over again, but there's something going on. And, you know, I don't know, I think, you know, my opinion is I think a lot of people are holding back, spending money, making really any major decisions until after the election. Right, wrong or indifferent. It's just human nature. I think the geopolitical issues that are going on are scaring the heck out of people. And I think just a combination of things. And so, yeah, so I just wanted to, you know, kind of throw that in. But this is, this is what Jason and I are going to be talking about tonight. And it's, you know, the world right now is anxiously awaiting to see what type of retaliation is going to occur, if and when it's going to occur between Israel and Iran. Right. We all experienced this yesterday, again, especially Jason and I started our screens, the extreme volatility when the rockets were flying. And, you know, again, I think we got very, very lucky yesterday when, you know, the markets recovered from their losses and, you know, actually. Finish the day down only 173 compared to what really could have sparked a major sell off yesterday. Then, you know, I'll be honest with you, Jason, I did not sleep very well at all last night. I was, it's like every, about every two hours, for some reason, my brain would not let me get into a good night's sleep and any rim sleep. And I was waking up about every two hours, checking my phone to see, you know, if any rockets had had started flying again in retaliation to, to what happened to Israel yesterday. So, you know, this is, again, I think a day that we were very concerned that retaliation did occur. And, you know, the scary part, folks, if you're not following the story closely, the scary part, you know, we'll break this down between human life and then the monetary side of things. Many are pushing Israel to really basically do a lot of harm to Iran. And when I'm talking about harm, not so much the human life, but more so on the economic side of things. There being pushed and being advised by many countries, many world leaders, that enough is enough. You guys have basically played this game long enough and you just got fired on yesterday by intercontinental ballistic missiles. You know, it's a whole, it's a whole game changer. And therefore, when you do retaliate Israel, what you need to be doing is going after the oil refineries. And even many people, I'm sure you've seen this, Jason, and heard this. Many people are recommending that, and God help us, that they're going to go after their nuclear facilities. And, you know, because they do have the capability or at least they say they do to make nuclear bombs. So, this is very severe, folks. This is very severe. And again, nothing happened today. My personal opinion, I think something is going to happen by the end of the week. Israel, I noticed, tends to wait about, oh, it seems like about 48 to 72 hours after they are attacked to retaliate. And so, Jason and I thought that, you know what, what we need to be talking about is what we saw happen as far as market reaction yesterday. And not so much just what the overall indices did, but really what areas did we see all of a sudden move up or all of a sudden move down? And so, we put together kind of what we call a safe haven defensive type of portfolio allocation that we want to discuss with you. Again, this may or may not happen, but our job is to always help you be prepared, just like we do for our clients. We want to try to help you be prepared, because many of you are like, I don't know what to do at this point. Do I stay fully invested or do I go defensive, do I go to cash, what do I do? Well, that's going to be up to you and your advisor if you're not our clients. And so, what we can do to help you out is really talk about, I think, a great portfolio that we saw move in the positive direction yesterday in the midst of the missiles flying. And so, what we're going to do is we're going to put together, or share with you, we are to put together, an allocation that, again, you can consider. By no means do you have to do it, we're not telling you to do it, but if you're out there going, what do I do? We've got the answers for you. Yeah, and I would highlight that part, too. We are not recommending you do this. This is just discussing certain sectors that are sensitive to geopolitical angst, right? And I think some of the areas we touch on, again, like I said, all the asterisks and stars and such that, you know, discuss with your financial advisor. But at least shows you some of the areas that may seem obvious, but at the same time, you know, the goal of any portfolio is to try to be diversified. So, you're not all eggs in one basket, but sometimes following themes, right? If it's commodities that are sensitive to change or certain, you know, energy areas, et cetera, that we think could be benefited from, unfortunately, a negative catalyst, that's what you're trying to do. So even if this may be something that you look at on your side, and just in terms of a paper portfolio to keep an eye on, you know, it can be helpful as well. Hey, why is that defensive portfolio acting well, right? Those can be sort of canaries in a coal mine, even if you don't make a decision to allocate to it. It's always nice, and I have many of these built just as an aside that I watch, low volatility, defensive, all kinds of different portfolios, even though we don't use them. If one of them starts to work for a period of time, it tends to be foreshadowing of things that happen soon after. So, this is just another thing to bring up. And I'm glad you shared that with everybody. Go a little bit deeper, because I think this is a great learning lesson for people to realize that, yes, you may have all this call a portfolio way, which is your traditional equity, growth-oriented type of portfolio. But in the shadows, as you like to say, in the shadows, you should have other types of portfolios built for various economics/geopolitical, et cetera, type of conditions. So, go just a little bit further into that, because that's a great learning lesson for everybody. Again, it's more of a monitor, right? You want to see what areas are working, having a value portfolio built, a growth portfolio built, you know, like I said, there's factors, momentum, quality. There's lots of things that you can go into and build. And I have, I guess I probably have 20 of them, that I've built that work during different regimes. And, as I mentioned, I always say stocks don't lie, but people do. You can see areas of the market tend to work before, ironically, some geopolitical events take place. You've seen gold, silver. You've seen some of these areas pick up. Certainly there's been concerns around buying from other countries, but who knows, right? Energy had been very, very, very oversold, and sometimes seeks a catalyst, right? If you want to be a conspiracy theorist, right, that sometimes these things tend to happen when oil prices are dipping, especially in the Middle East. So, yeah, it's just, it's one of the many things that we like to show folks, recommend to folks. And if you ever have questions on how to build them, let us know. Absolutely. Excellent. All right, and we come back. We'll talk about today's market activity, and then get ready for our topic. Is it time to get more defensive and help you with the portfolio that we've put together for you? Let's turn it over to Kristin Snow. She is in the Right Now Traffic Center. Hey, Kristin, how you doing? Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on News Talk 780KOH with Jason Gaunt. All right, once again, we'll get to our topic momentarily. Is it time to get more defensive? If your answer is yes, we're going to help you with a portfolio design that potentially could prepare you for some extreme market volatility in the unfortunate event that we begin to see some type of retaliation efforts by Israel against Iran. But in the meantime, let us bring you up to date on what the heck happened here at home, which as we started the show by saying, kind of feels like a day that didn't even happen. That was a great summary, Jason. Great summary. Take it from there. Yeah, I mean, we got ADP today. I think that was the first move, your favorite. But I think it highlighted that the jobs deceleration, at least until they revise it later, isn't nigh. We had 143,000 number. Some of the data inside of there showed, I'd say, a little bit less than feared from an inflation standpoint. That was a good thing. I think that helped the market rally off the lows. I think sort of as John touched on at the beginning of this show, the fact that we didn't have incremental missiles flying today, I think was a reason that the market was bought. Some comments out of Iran that they're done for now, which kind of more so mimics what we saw, I don't know, was it a month and a half, two months ago, and they did something similar. Pretty impressive, that Iron Dome, when you look at it, it's pretty crazy. Really? There's a great story. Let me interrupt you real quick. There's a great story on the Wall Street Journal, WSJ.com, the online version. And it goes through, Jason, to your point, it goes through the different defense mechanisms, air defense mechanisms that Iran has, the Iron Dome. I mean, there's like four of them that I had no idea, I'd heard of a few of them, but I mean, there's some that go way up into literally the stratosphere. It is a very, very sophisticated system. And what I was very surprised about is Raytheon was involved in just about every one of the four creations of those. So pretty interesting. I used to live literally with Raytheon in my backyard in Andover, Massachusetts. So I could tell you when the wars were hitting out, because you could hear the factory start to hit. Literally in my backyard, so you could hear this dole hum. Sometimes you're like, "Oh, no." All right, boys, time to shut the market. I hear that. Exactly. Bye, oil. Yeah, no. That's one thing I don't miss having in my backyard is Raytheon. I can imagine. But the glow, exactly. The water, you know, and the pond outside, just glowed so lovingly during the winter. But I mean, you had really crude oil futures were up a lot this morning and they came off through the bulk of the day. I think we're only up three quarters of a percent, but we're up two and a half percent earlier in the day. Some of the more, I'd say, risk on crypto-based assets were weak through much of the session. So it felt more like, you know, I'd say in general, a little bit of a less of a fear as the market waned. Like I said, ADP was good. And tomorrow we're going to get job as claims factory orders and then the payroll number on Friday. People are just wondering, are we going to see another swoon like the beginning of August, the beginning of September? It almost feels like it wants to set up to get you wrong way twice of maybe holding better and then roll over in the back half of October. But time will tell. It's, you know, unfortunate with these geopolitical things, which I've mentioned to, you know, both of us ad nauseum. There's much the economy that I'm concerned about. It's more over this stuff. The unknown, unknown, and timing around it that can make all kinds of market moves that you hadn't prognosticated come to fruition. But, you know, for now today was, I'd say humanity was probably the puke of the day. They had some, I think, twenty-five- Four stars out of five. Right, exactly, right. But it was, you know, showing the Medicare advantage and sort of how that's really changed the whole medical and provider universe, CVS, on the other side, Walgreen, some of those other that are very drug exposed. So the healthcare sector that historically has been more defensive has not acted as well as one would have thought, given all the headlines that they've seen from now coming up on to the election time, too. And, you know, those tend to be a little more volatile. But overall, today was fairly quiet. Ten-year did rise. It was at $3.79, so yields, I think, are something that we're going to probably start staring at a little bit more. As to, you've seen rates really come off quite a bit. Is the next move higher, just given that, you know, the Fed's talked about only twenty-five basis points now for the next two cuts this year versus where the market was closer to at least $1.50. Well, Dwight, it was in a pretty good mood yesterday. You know, that was one area, of course, where we saw a flight to quality yesterday, where they piled into the bonds and drove those yields down. So, he was a little bit on the happy side with yields and 30-year mortgage rates, et cetera, coming down a bit yesterday. And, yeah, that was just one interesting situation. But I want to go back to Humana for just a moment, because we were kind of joking about this, but this was somewhat an interesting situation. So, obviously, Humana and Medicare, major Medicare insurance company. And essentially, there's a third party that kind of keeps track of how good various Medicare products are. And various Medicare providers are doing, right? And it's a star rating system like we all used to get in elementary school. Five Stars is the best you can get. Well, Humana, or this organization said Humana basically is for everybody involved that only 25% of its members are enrolled in a four-star plan and so on and so forth versus 94% in 2024. Now, this gets into, again, the type of plans and so on and so forth. But the bottom line of this whole thing is kind of confusing, but the whole bottom line is, this means that Humana in 2025 is not going to get as much money from the government, because they're not coming in with a star rating like they should be and they wanted to do. So, they're not evidently for various reasons. They're not doing as good, which means they're going to get less government reimbursement, and therefore that will have a negative effect on the earnings going forward. When I saw that this morning, Jason, when I was doing the stock update, the first time, I'm like, four-star rating, so I had to research this thing. It was kind of interesting to see that it's kind of a bonus plan, basically, with the government. It's like, you got to do a good job and get the bonuses. Yeah, I'm not going to give you money. It must be nice. Nike was another draw on the Dow today, down 6.8%, $6.03 loss, 83.10. So, I covered it on the show last night. They reported pretty good numbers, had a little bit of a revenue missed. They did okay on the earnings per share side of things, but they pulled their guidance going forward for the rest of the year. They also backed out of their November investor day, so people don't like seeing that. So, we had pressure on that Dow component. Good to see Apple come back a little bit, and a few of the other names out there that were, you know, getting beaten up yesterday. Apple finished the day up just with a modest gain of $0.57 to $2.26.78. I failed to mention when we came back from the break, how we actually did on the market. So, let me hit that real quick. 40-point gain on the Dow would finish at $42,196, Nasdaq rose 15, and the S&P higher by just one. Pull back in the gold price. I thought this was interesting today. We saw flight to quality in gold yesterday, flight to quality in bonds, but down $20.60, $2,669.70 on the gold price today. I said, I thought that gold was close to topping out sort of in the high, you know, 2,600 low, 2,700 range, just chart-wise. I mean, I think it's very crowded, especially if you do get rates starting to lift again with the Fed. That's going to be a headwind for gold prices. So, you know, again, tread lightly, I do. I think it's pretty darn crowded right now. It wouldn't be surprised to see weakness, again, barring some, you know, out of left field move. But, yeah, as far as a trade, which I've mentioned all along, I think the bulk of the win is in right now. Not to say it can't be higher later, but I think near term, you know, you've seen a little rotation into silver just from that ratio of the two. But I think, you know, that sort of fear panic by, because China's buying trade certainly on gold has run its course near term. You got it, you got it. Finally, mortgage applications, we get this data each and every Wednesday, mortgage applications down 1.3% for the prior week. Quite a surprise there, but, you know, this shows how sensitive you folks are when it comes to rates, because rates did edge up ever so slightly. And that was enough to pull back those at mortgage apps prior week was up 11%. So, this was a big reversal there. All right, when we come back, is it time to build a defensive portfolio? If you say yes, well, guess what? We're going to help you do that. But first, let's turn it over to Greg Neff. He's got news traffic and weather. Hey, Greg. Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on his Talk 780KOH with Jason Con. All right, here's how we finished up a 40-point game on the Dow. It was all finished at $42,196. The Nasdaq rose at 15 points, a fraction of a percent increase there. And the S&P 500A whopping one-point gain to finish the day at $5,709. All right, the world is anxiously awaiting to see the retaliation efforts if and when by Israel against Iran after the ICBM missiles flew across their skies yesterday. Don't know when, don't know how severe it's going to be. As I started the show by saying and Jason saying, you know, the predictions can be very, are really very dire, depending upon who you listen to. So you've got to take that with a grain of salt all the way from, you know, they're recommending that Israel go after the nuclear manufacturing facilities to destroying their oil wells and various refineries and shipping points, et cetera. I mean, it's pretty severe. And the reason I'm paying a lot of attention to this and Jason is, again, as we heard throughout the day yesterday, this time is different. This time is different, right? Iran has never really fired the ICBMs like they did and so on and so forth. So again, I am not a political expert, nor is Jason. All we can tell you is what we hear, see, read, et cetera and try to help you prepare for it. And that's exactly what we wanted to do with you this afternoon. Now, what we're going to be talking about again is helping you create a defensive portfolio, right? Now, like we said at the beginning of the show, we are not recommending you go do this. This is something you need to do. If you're self-managing your money, you need to think about it. If worst case scenario, at least have it built or something similar to it. So you're not trying to build something in the event that there is a bunch of problems on the geopolitical basis, right? You already have it built. You switch, you know, over from where you are now into a defensive portfolio if you think the situation is going to last. But keep in mind, these markets going all the way back to the Gulf Wars have been very, very resilient. Even I remember, you know, I know you do, Jason, you know, the invasions occurred in the various Gulf Wars. It was very short lived as far as the market volatility. The market rebounded very quickly. Yesterday, again, we, I think because it caught everybody off guard when we, you know, looked up on our TV screens and we saw the missiles flying and so on and so forth. The market had a very quick knee-jerk reaction. I think we've been fortunate up to this point that again, it's been very short lived as far as the market volatility. But what if, what if it's not short lived? What if it's prolonged? What if it continues? What do you need to do? How can you hopefully make some money on it and protect your hard-earned assets? So what we've done is basically put together a portfolio for you. So we're going to start off with talking about, again, about six major areas that we saw yesterday that did fairly well in that brief period of time and the world was glued to their TV screens or the internet. Not saying those areas would be ideal going forward, but if yesterday was any indication, potentially they could do well. So we've called our first area the safe haven assets. And so the safe haven side of things really encompassed two areas, gold and precious metals and government bonds. Now, Jason, what kind of allocation are you thinking about on the gold and precious metal side and the government bond side? Well, I mean, again, oftentimes I've seen things broken up into four quadrants, and this tends to be 25% of the portfolio be it gold, precious metals, treasuries, things along those lines, essentially things that can dampen volatility. Obviously gold, silver, those types of names will have a sort of currency effect to them, but in terms of quote unquote safe haven assets or we'll call stable assets that tend to see 25% allocated to this quadrant. And I think, so we can say 15, 25% somewhere around there, again, everybody's situation is different. These are just guidelines, 15 to 25% gold and precious metals, 10 to 20% in government bonds. But I think the other thing that we should mention, Jason, is on the government bond side of things, we're not talking just U.S. government bonds, this could also be a time to start looking at some of the sovereign bonds from other stable countries around the world. Definitely, and you've seen that many of the allocators that we use here for some of the tactical portfolios have already been doing that. They've been messing with their duration, but also allocating from U.S. high yields into international emerging things along those lines where the yields are starting to be more appetizing given the level of risk. So yeah, that home bias, if you can figure out a way to get rid of it inside of your portfolio, I will clap for you. So yeah, anytime you look at something trying to spread across countries as well, because it's not just U.S. that potentially benefits from a flight to quality, it could be other areas too. Absolutely, great point. All right, our second component of the portfolio is what we call the energy sector. Name pretty much speaks for itself. An allocation can be somewhere between 15 to 30%. Again, everybody's situation is different. I've got to keep Thor the disclaimer out there. Now, we've broken this down somewhere around 10 to 20% in the oil and gas sector of the markets, and then kind of an interesting area, about 5 to 10% on the renewable energy side of things. Take it from there. Yeah, I mean, oil and gas, no shock, clearly the situation with Middle East. Again, the nice part is the U.S. being the biggest producer now. And we don't have that up $10 move in oil that probably historically we would have had in the past. But yeah, I think thinking of energy and those types of parts, you can't just single yourself on Middle East and/or just oil. You need to be looking at other alternatives. There's even U.S. stocks that have big allocations towards renewables as well. Next Terra being one of them that things don't quite well in the utility space. So renewable energy, oil and gas, just energy in general are good places to allocate a portion of your portfolio just given that they tend to move up in times of crises, especially like this one. Well, it was very interesting, again, looking back at how these areas perform compared to yesterday, kind of helped us in this allocation. We saw Chevron and Exxon trade very, very strongly, obviously, yesterday when the missiles were flying. But again, one of our favorite asset classes are exchange-traded funds or ETFs, because remember ETFs trade throughout the day like a stock does, but yet they own a basket of certain sectors of the economy like energy. I mean, you can just get granular on different types of energy ETFs. If you want just the oil producers or the oil field service companies, I mean, like I said, you can get really granular. But the ETFs really are a good way to go instead of trying to pick the individual stocks unless you're a really good stock banker, which very few people are. But the great thing about the ETFs, again, you can really diversify it. And when we get to our next area, the defense and aerospace sector, that's really where you can, like I said, get a whole basket of stocks in certain areas and it really, really helps diversify that portfolio. So we know, again, this is one thing that we're all very concerned about is, again, this time could be different in regards to Israel's retaliation that they will go after, and they've pretty much stayed away from it at this point, but they could go after the oil manufacturing facilities. Remember, we've got lots of different straits and things that the oil shipping tankers travel through, so this could be a major disruption if, again, something happens there. So I'm very confident you would see a big spike in oil, a big spike in gas prices. And then, again, back to Jason's point, the renewable energy side of it, maybe five to ten percent, just kind of as a hedge against the fossil fuel side of it. So once again, energy sector, about 15 to 30 percent of which 10 to 20 is oil and gas, and about five to 10 on the renewable side. Now, the next one, Jason, I wish I had a dime for every phone. Every phone call we get from people, whenever geopolitical tensions like this rise and go, "I want you to load up my portfolio with Raytheon and Lockheed Martin and Boeing," and we always have to go, "Oh, wait, just a minute here." But when we're talking about designing a defense and aerospace portion of a portfolio, not bad. Round 10 to 20 percent is kind of what you're feeling comfortable with on that side of it. Yeah, and again, outside of the U.S., there's some pretty interesting names, too, but also know where that sector is from a year-to-date standpoint. I mean, it's up like 40-something percent already, so you're a little bit late to that trade at this point. So for lots of reasons, I mean, these companies aren't incredibly expensive. They've actually been growing earnings for the last couple of years, so that's part of why people have flocked to them, but also this type of stuff with increased geopolitical instability. But yeah, I think inside of a purely defensive allocation that you're trying to park assets because of the concern of a geopolitical event, ignore the chart, right? A 10 to 20 percent allocation probably makes a lot of sense in many of these names. As John mentioned earlier, there's a handful of ETFs that you can research and literally just Google aerospace and defense, and you will get their tickers. I just can't tell you them, but yeah, there's quite a few out there that track these names. And remember, when you buy an ETF, go and look at the weights. Make sure they're not too heavy in one name or two names. They have a much more broad allocation, so you don't get sort of stuck in great idea, wrong pick. So yeah, there's lots of ways. And that's a sector probably makes a lot of sense to own an ETF versus pick which stocks. It's almost like clockwork. When you see missiles fly or something more related, you see the names go up. The key is, as well as customer clients, if it's short-lived, meaning the attacks, the missiles, et cetera, then you tend to see these names back down as quickly as they ran up. So you got to, again, you got to keep that in mind. But there's a lot of big names, all of you know, the Lockheed Martins of the world, the Boeing's, the Raytheons, Northrop Grumans and so on and so forth. But again, ETF is really the best way to do that. All right, we have two other areas that we think could be into a defensive portfolio. If it's appropriate for you, we'll share what those are in a moment. The first Christian Snow talking about defensive, we probably got to be a little defensive on the highways, don't we, my dear? Welcome back to the John Sanchez Show on News Talk 780CoA. It's with Jason Guy, a quick reminder. Tonight, 6.30 p.m. We are going to be holding our 12 months to retirement webinar. Just go to our website, sancheswolfmanagement.com. Click on the live events tab and sign up. No charge for it. Jason and I are going to be there with our smiling faces. Well, what's left of it after a 14, 15 hour day. And covering all the major areas that you need to be thinking about and implementing on during a very critical time period to getting ready for retirement, that 12 month window. So we really look forward to seeing all of you there. All right, we're talking about again, is it time to get more defensive? Jason, before we get back to our defensive portfolio allocation recommendations, I want to share something that I read this morning on Bloomberg. And so it's a little bit dated. Of course, this came out like I said this morning. But I just want to emphasize how serious this issue is in Israel. Now, this is a comment from Netanyahu, of course, the Israeli Prime Minister. He said, Iran made a big mistake tonight and they will pay for it. The regime in Iran does not understand our determination to defend ourselves and our determination to retaliate against our enemies. Israel opposition leader and former prime minister of Iran, again, he's opposition leader against Netanyahu said, Iran must pay a significant price. And then another fellow, a former leader in one of Netanyahu's main political rivals, said that Iran should have its nuclear program destroyed, its central energy facilities. This is what they're talking about over there, folks. That's, again, to the extreme side of things. The obvious targets, as we've said throughout tonight's show, the oil infrastructure, the military bases, and again, under, as Bloomberg says, under the most extreme scenario, nuclear facilities. So we're trying to help you be prepared. God help us in the event that something like this escalates and does happen. So we've discussed creating the first part, your safe haven portion of the portfolio. Let's do a quick recap. Golden precious metals, 15 to 25 percent allocation. Government bonds, 10 to 20 percent. Then we move to the second area, the energy sector. Oil and gas, about 10 to 20 percent of the portfolio. Renewals, about 5 to 10 percent. And then the obvious defense and aerospace sectors, 10 to 20 percent allocation there. And now we're going to come back to our final. The commodity side, 5 to 10 percent. Jason, we see this all the time we saw it yesterday. All of a sudden, a big surge in ag products when there's geopolitical tensions. Simply because people got to eat. And a lot of times, most of these commodities are shipped. And of course, shipping gets disrupted in many geopolitical attention events. Yeah, and I mean, we talk about Ukraine all the time as an area where inflation sort of started to spike then when they got taken offline by and large with the war. So, commodities ag in general is a good thing that you know, you want to have as a diversifier helps on the inflation side to your point if there's supply chain disruptions. 5 to 10 percent commodities probably is a good size in there. Absolutely. We mentioned this briefly earlier. Are you specifically did the global diversification get out of the U.S.? Take a look at things like emerging markets for 5 to 10 percent. Non-U.S. equities 10 to 15 percent. So overall, about 15 to 25 percent out of the U.S. on the global side. And I said that just in general. Exactly. Regardless of the defense part, do that please. Yes. But yeah, I think, you know, non-U.S. emerging markets, et cetera, tend to have a little bit more of a tailwind, you know, EM, obviously some of the areas in the Middle East will be sensitive, but you know, having a other spots than just a U.S. only portfolio. And then cash, liquid assets, short-term treasuries, just having cash to be a buyer if you get some more weakness in general. Dry powder, yeah. That's always a good part of a portfolio. But safe haven assets, energy, defense, commodities, some global non-U.S. stocks and a little bit of dry powder to add on weakness. Absolutely. All right. We hope that's helpful. Hopefully you guys can sleep a little bit better tonight knowing that there are things that you can do to prepare again if something like this does unfold. God willing, it does not. But our job is to prepare for everything. And so we will see what comes true. We'll see everybody at 6.30 to 9 again. Sign up at SanchezWolfmanagement.com. We'll see you all tonight. Great job, Jay. We'll see you tomorrow, everybody. This program was sponsored by Sanchez Wealth Management. The material in this program was intended as general information only and should not be taken as specific investment tax or legal advice. None of the information on this broadcast was intended to be a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security. Further information is available by contacting John at SanchezWolfmanagement.com or 775-800-1801. John Sanchez offers securities and advisory services through Independent Financial Group LLC, a registered broker, dealer, and investment advisor. Remember FINRA SIPC. Securities offered only in states John Sanchez is registered in. Sanchez Wealth Management LLC and Independent Financial Group LLC are unaffiliated entities. At Independent Financial, we know you work hard for your business. That's why we work hard for you. Our local bankers are ready to jump in and support your next vision or venture. 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