The Duran Podcast
The Impending Economic Meltdown w/Investor Legend Jim Rogers, Alexander Mercouris & Glenn Diesen
- Hi everyone and welcome to today's discussion. I'm Glenn Diesner, I'm joined by Alexander McCurris and we're very excited about today's guests which is the great investor legend, Jim Rogers, who will enlighten us about the direction of the economy and the problems building up. Welcome, sirs, yeah, quite a privilege to have you on. - Well, thank you, I'm not a legend, I'm a simple person. (chuckles) - So a simple person trying to stay alive and stay softened. - Simple people say things which are sometimes complicated people just don't understand. So thank you, sir, and we're still a legend for many people. - I am not smart enough to say complicated things. I will leave that to you and Glenn. - It's the simple ones that are the true ones. - I guess, oh yeah, I thought it would be a good place to start off with his perhaps the direction of the world economy cost. We see for a very long time, I remember you speaking a lot during the great financial crisis of 2008 about the wrong direction and we have now low interest rates which seem to have fueled many bubbles, maybe except in commodities. We have American and European debt seemingly becoming unsustainable. Stock markets doing quite well at a time when the fundamental seems to be getting worse and overall there seems to be a dilemma as we can't reduce rates without destroying the currencies or can't increase it without collapsing the economy. So it seems a very unique time in history or we do go through these periods, of course, but what is seeing the main problems going forward? How long can they keep the party going, I guess? And how do you see all of this ending? Sorry, it's maybe a bit too big question. - Oh, Glenn, that was very perceptive and insightful. That's the problem. It was perceptive and insightful. The world, you know, the American stock market and I will use it since it's the largest has never had such a long period in American history. Never, the American stock market's been going on for, since 2009, as you know, that's 15 years. We have never had anything nearly like this and most countries in the world now are having wonderful times in the stock markets and the investment market, I mean, even China, even Japan, Japan was down for 35 years. That's not a typo, 35 years. And now it's making new highs. So everybody's having a good time at the moment and I have learned that when everybody's having a good time, you should at least start asking questions. - And you had a good question, Glenn. - Can I just say, I've just been to Asia. I've been to Malaysia. And one of the things that really struck me about Malaysia is, I don't know whether they have a stock market in Malaysia, they must do, but I didn't see or hear anything about it. But it came across to me as a vibrant, optimistic country. Things were clearly happening there. People were building businesses. It's developing industrially in ways that we do not see in Europe anymore. And you talk about the fact that there's this enormous exuberance in the stock markets. It is not translated into any sort of exuberance in the ordinary lives of the vast majority of people in Europe, certainly, where of course I live. I know Germany well, I live in Britain. You can't imagine probably being in Asia how depressed and melancholy people are here. So there is this extraordinary divergence between, as I said, the optimism and confidence that I saw in Malaysia and the mood in Europe. And as you said, there's this exuberance in the stock markets. But what explains this? Why are we so exuberant in the stock markets and so depressed everyone else? And can this actually last? - Well, that's a brilliant question. And the answer, it never has lasted. Not this long so far. But you know, I mean, in Asia, not just Asia, everywhere, there's been a lot of money printing. And if, I mean, let me tell you, Alex, if you give me a billion dollars, you can have a very good time. I assure you, you give me two billion dollars, we'll have a better time. And that's what's happening. Central banks all over the world, including Japan, everywhere, are printing huge amounts of money. And when there's all this free money, a lot of people are having a good time. I will say to you that I have learned that when everybody's having a good time, you should at least stop and ask a question or two. Because I have never known for everybody to have a good time and it never stops. It always stops eventually. - What should be expected though? I know it's difficult to time these things, but obviously with inflation becoming a problem and maybe not speculating that a banking crisis could emerge, well, do you see any predictions? I know it's never popular to look inside the crystal ball and make very specific predictions, but based on the past, on history, how do you think this will play out? Is it Europe that will begin to pull down the world? Is it a banking crisis in the United States? Is it a slowdown in China? What do you see being the main figure? - Well, periods like this have always ended badly and it always starts over there where nobody's watching. And then the next thing you know a few weeks later, it happens in a bigger place and then a bigger place. And the next thing you know, it's on the evening news and everybody knows that something is wrong. But until it's on the evening news, everybody continues to have a good time and that's what's happening now. I mean, I have not started selling short because I don't see enough wild exuberance yet, but I've certainly cut back enormously and I hope that I'm smart enough to sell short when the time is right. - We seem to have policy in the West, which is geared increasingly to one objective, which is to prevent recessions. And there is this huge effort always to keep growth going irrespective of what happens in the real economy. So there's build-ups of debt, there's imbalances of the economy, but somehow we have to keep growth going all the time. I had always understood that the whole point about a free economy, a market economy is that recessions are a part of it and are required to maintain balance, to clear out problems that exist, to make sure that capital is allocated efficiently. Am I missing something? I mean, this policy as an indefinite constant growth, which by the way, is constantly slowing as well. - Seems to me, to be allergic. - I mean, that's brilliant insight, that's exactly the situation. Politicians think that they have to always have good times and they try to have good times always. And the people who work for the central banks are appointed by the politicians to make things great, always, until the next election anyway, whenever the next election is. And they're in lies part of the problem. Central bankers who are bureaucrats or academics think that all they have to do is print money and everything will be fine. And yes, everything is fine for a while, but eventually the signs come. Everybody goes down to the bar and talks about how good things are in the stock market and how much money they're making in the stock market. And they will tell you, Alexander, if you listen to me and you buy this stock, you will make a lot of money too. And everybody believes it. And everybody says, oh, this is so easy. This is wonderful. And then they tell their friends, I've discovered this new thing called the stock market and it's so much fun. And you can make money and it's easy. It's easy to make money. And the next thing, everybody you know, is talking about stocks. When you go to the dentist, the technician doesn't want to talk to you about your teeth. She wants to talk about stocks. She wants about how much money she's making in the stock market. Now, the reason I'm not selling short yet is because I don't see that kind of excessive exuberance yet. It's developing, but it always throughout history, there comes a time when everybody is exuberant and you have to start getting extremely worried. And if you can sell short, that's when you should sell short. - But it seems as if we're already in the reaching the, no, no, not the end of the line. But when this next economic crisis occurs, you expect people to run into the dollar as a perceived safe haven to expect metals, gold and silver primarily to be the place to go. Not necessarily giving solid investment tips to us, but well, where do what happens to their money as the markets begin to crack? - Well, that's again, another perceptive question. It's Glenn, right now I own a huge number of US dollars, not because the US dollar's sound. The United States is the largest detonation in the history of the world. So I know you're now gonna say, well, why do you own US dollars then? What's wrong with you? And the reason I own them is because usually when things get, when there's turmoil, people look for a safe haven and many people think the US dollar is a safe haven. It's not my plan. And remember, I'll make many mistakes. My plan is when that happens and the US dollar has a big move up by all the people rushing into a safe haven. My plan is to then sell my US dollars because it has to be coming to an end with all the debt now and the money printing in the US. Now, Glenn, I know you're gonna say, well, what do you do with your money then when you sell your US dollars? And the reason I'm on this show is because I want you and Alexander to tell me what to do with my dollars. I don't know one of the few times in my life. I'm not quite sure where to go next. I do own some gold, I do own some silver, but I have to have some currencies as well somewhere along the line. And I cannot find a competitor then I cannot find the next competitor to the US dollar. And I look every day. - Would it not be true to say, however, that when we get into the kind of scenario that you've just outlined, it will be a clarifying moment. We will be able to see where the alternatives are, where to put one's money, what is still standing even as everything else collapses around us? Just asking that kind of question. Isn't that what happens when the earthquake strikes? I've lived through earthquakes. You can see which building is still standing, even as all the others fall. - Well, that is good insight again. But I mean, I guess it's because I don't like waiting that long. I like to anticipate and be there ahead of other people. But if that's my only solution, then I will wait. And I will watch to see what does not collapse. But everything else is collapsing. But if you ask me now, I have no idea. Yes, I own silver and gold, but it cannot just be silver and gold. - I wanted to ask you about bricks, because I remember I watched an interview with you a few years back. And at that time you were expressing, I guess, some lack of optimism about the future of bricks. But it seems today, well, at that time, I guess there were more of a talking club. But since then, we see the bricks also seem to be at least preparing for alternative systems. That is, they are facilitating some of the cooperation between new tax hubs, they are organizing this green corridors, they're setting up digital payment systems to transition to, well, digital currencies and also national currencies. We see this new payment system development banks too. Do you see any freaks having a big role in the future? Or is it the political setting of all countries being able to harmonize their interest over time? Or is it the structure of this institution? So how do you see the future of bricks? - Well, Ben, everything you just said is correct, but I don't see a solid foundation for bricks. If you look at the various countries, they're all wonderful countries. But I don't see enough in those countries to make them all joined together permanently. So bricks just started because some guy looked at a map on the wall and said, "Oh, these are big countries. Maybe they're gonna be a future." But there was no foundation for what he said other than he saw big countries on a map. So maybe it will work. Maybe they can join together and save us all, but I don't see any of them sound enough, solid enough to save the world. I mean, the Indian stock market is making all-time highs right now. And by the way, it's the first time in my life that I have seen Delhi warning people to prosper, warning people to have success. What is happening? But I don't see that as enough to, I mean, look at the people in the bricks, Russia. I mean, Russia's gotten certainly better in the last few years, but is it enough to save the world, et cetera? So I am not optimistic that bricks is the answer. If it is, I've missed it and I hope I will jump on the moving bus in time to save myself. But I don't see it yet. - Shall we talk about locations? Because you are in, I understand you're in Singapore and East Asia. And as I said, I've just been to East Asia and I was impressed by what I saw in Malaysia. And I suspect that Malaysia is only one example of a general upswing there. And it's a board-based upswing. That was my impression at least. How do you feel about this region, about East Asia generally? Because putting aside the particular problems which all of us will face, and I could say that in Britain, I think we will face profound problems to put it mildly. I couldn't help but feel that the East Asians have the resilience and the organization and the foundation to come through. But perhaps you know the region better, maybe you can add your thoughts to this. - Well, I don't know if I know it better, Alex. I mean, I make lots of mistakes, but I will certainly say to you, I have noticed in recent past that Indonesia, for the first time in my investing career, seems to be getting it right. Vietnam, certainly for the first time in my lifetime, seems to be getting it right. You mentioned Malaysia. Yes, I mean, Malaysia's had lots of swings, but even those guys seem to understand that the old ways of paying off your friends are paying voters has to come to an end. And of course Singapore's been one of the great successes of the past few decades. So I look around Southeast Asia, I see great improvement. They do have natural resources. They do seem to be getting the right people, the might managers for the economy. So yes, I mean, if I look around the world, I have a better view of Southeast Asia than I do of say, Britain, to pick a name, to pick a name at random, of the US to pick another name at random. Yes, there are many things going right in Asia now that have not been right in my lifetime. And let's hope it continues. I mean, even Japan, I mean, Japan is an astonishing story since 1945. But I mean, Japan now has staggering debt and the population has been declining for 15 years. That's not a typo. The Japanese population has been declining for 15 years. Rising debt in declining population is usually not a prescription for success. If Asia overall is doing quite well, how do you see the future of Europe? Because at the moment, things seems to have been taken a turn for the worst. 10 years ago, back in 2014, there was a bit about optimism that we could pull Ukraine into the Western orbit, the Russians would be a little bit weakened, we would be strengthened vis-a-vis the Russians. But over the past few years now, it seems nothing played out as expected. We see effectively the Russians are able to diversify Europe is not, so we're having now de-industrializing Germany and overall Europe, while the Russians are reorienting their economy to the east. Some cities is an adjustment period that we seem to have to become more self-sufficient or simply rely more on the United States. I'm not always convinced when our politicians speak of a glorious future. Do you see a great future for Europe or does it belong to the past now? - Well, again, that's perfect observation. Yes, and insight. That's what's happening in Europe. That for like many times in history, people think things are great. And if there's a problem, don't worry. If we have a war, don't worry. The war will be over by Christmas. Can I tell you how many times in history the people have said the war will be over by Christmas. And they always get optimistic. There are many problems developing in Europe. Most of the nations in Europe now have huge debts, which was in Germany. The idea that Germany would have huge debts was inconceivable when I went into the investment world. It's just something could not happen. But now even the Germans have a lot of debts and potential problems. So I mean, as I look around Europe, I would love to find a safe haven. I don't know if there is one now. If you tell me a safe haven, then we will have to discuss their neighbors because the neighbors are not a safe haven. And the neighbors can spill over and cause problems. I love Europe, but I have to be realistic. - I think you've been very realistic. One of the things that, again, I'm talking about the difference between Asia and Europe, at least Asia and Britain, is that the impression I got when I was in Malaysia is that people, there is a desire to go out, to actually start businesses, to work. There is a sense of activity. Whereas in Britain, at least, one of the things, if you actually follow on media here, one of the great problems that there is at the moment is that there is a reluctance on parts of people to work. This isn't because people prefer to be idle. It is because there is profound demoralization. There is a sense that working isn't really going to get you very far. You hear people complain about taxes and this complaint is widespread. There's a sense that you pay taxes and you don't get anything very much back in return anymore. Again, this isn't a simple statement, but it's a fact. You do hear people talk like this. Whereas in Asia, you don't see this. At least in Malaysia, I didn't see this. And that seemed to me a problem that you find right across Europe as well now, that there is a widespread sense of demoralization, that money printing and debt issuance has in effect replaced the actual real substantive economy, which people used to work in. Because ultimately, it's who is able to receive the money that's printed, that comes out rich. - Well, I mean, again, that's great perception, right inside. When I was young, Europe was a paragon. I mean, Germany, Switzerland, all these countries didn't have big debt. They didn't leave in money printing. The Swiss Franc was as sound as it could be. But even now, the Swiss National Bank invests a lot of its money in things like Apple. I mean, when people in the world finds out that the Swiss Franc is now backed by Apple instead of gold or integrity, I mean, some people are going to be worried. I am already worried when I see things like this happening. I mean, I cannot imagine that 40 or 50 years ago that the Swiss wouldn't have even thought about putting the Swiss Franc all into Apple or something like that. You know, the debate, if there was a debate, was whether it would be gold or 100% gold or just mostly gold. But now they don't think that way in Europe, most of Europe, nor the United States. So when I look out the window and I look west, I get worried. And you mentioned Malaysia, yes. Malaysia compared to even 30 years ago as an incredibly different nation. But most of the countries in Asia are too now. Maybe we are witnessing a huge historic shift from west to the east. I mean, I moved to Asia because of what's happening here. I mainly wanted my children to speak Mandarin, because in my view, China is going to be a great success in their lifetimes. So they already speak English. So I looked around and said, Asia is the future in their lifetimes. So I mean, you can ask me in 60 years, Alex, if we've done it right or not. But I don't see, the United States in 60 years, I see nothing but problems. I mean, you're both English. I can remember 60 years ago what happened in England as the pound sterling went from being the world's mightiest currency to being a disaster. I don't know if you remember those days, but that's going to happen to the US dollar. I don't like saying that. I'm an American and I have American children, but I have to face facts. And I hope that I can prepare my children for their lifetime. And I don't see it as being France or Italy or most European countries. - How about, well, I guess Germany, they have a, do you think their decline is very systemic or can it be reversed? They seem to have a problem with their infrastructure, their labor cost, but I guess most pressing now is the energy cost. Should we be teaching our kids German or do we be more pessimistic, I guess? - Well, that is certainly on my list. And I could have taught my children German, but I didn't. I decided on Chinese as being more realistic in their lifetime. I would like to repeat to you all. When I was at university, for instance, there was nothing sounder than the Deutschmark, except maybe the Swiss Frank. But even today, as I look out the window, I don't see the Deutschmark being what it was or the Swiss Frank even being what it was. Alex talks about Malaysia. I am not a wild fan of Malaysia, but it certainly continues to get better and better from the old days. And that's happening in much of Asia. - Do you think the problem is of the political system, that political leaders in the West are focused on the wrong things, that they're not focused on actually creating good conditions in the economy, helping people to set up businesses, establish themselves, work in ways that are productive, that we are focused excessively on geopolitics. You know, the Duran is a geopolitics thing. So, by the way, I just like the word. I don't like the word geopolitics, I should say, but anyway, there it is, we're stuck with it. - I'm sorry, I'm sorry you liked what? - I don't like the word geopolitics, but we're stuck with it, so I have to use it. But that we are over focused on this kind of thing, on great power competition, on, you know, creating alliances and developing political strategies to maintain our control. Whereas, in fact, the real measure of a country, the real measure of its success is the wellbeing of its people and the strength of its economy and the top political leaders who completely lost sight of that fact, as they play this complicated global chess game, which I think they're losing anyway. - Well, they're certainly losing it. I mean, I am an American citizen and I certainly don't like to see what is happening. That's the whole thing in your brain. America started this war 10 or 12 years ago. America for some reason has a history of often being at war. If you look, if you can caress that with China, China has very rarely in its history had international wars. Yes, they've had civil wars where they shoot each other, but they have very rarely had international wars, for whatever reason. And I wish I could say that out of America, I wish I could say that about many countries. America's been a country since 1776, but in only 19 years, since 1776, has America not had a war? America's nearly always been a war in our history. And I contrast that with China. I'm not saying China's better or worse or anything else. I'm talking just about war here. So most countries in Asia do not have a long history of international wars. Let's hope that continues. And I mean, I'm right or wrong. I've moved to Asia and have my children speak Mandarin. And to prepare, I hope I'm preparing them for the 21st century. We will see. Maybe we should all move down Missouri, which is from the US state and escape peace, but I doubt it. I wanted to ask you also about your views on the Russian market, because I remember it was probably about 15 years ago. You were saying that for the first time in your lifetime, you were more optimistic. You became very optimistic about the Russian market. But of course, since those days, they've been now pushing also to become an agricultural superpower. They improved on their digital or technological sovereignty. But overall, we see a huge shift now, especially last 10 years. They decided to effectively reorient their economy increasingly towards Asia. So a lot of this seems to have had great successes. But at the same time, they're also now, of course, in a war, a proxy world, say with the collective West. So it seems to be a lot of uncertainty. Things can go in all directions. Are you still optimistic, or are you going to wait and see? What do you expect from Russia in the future? Well, you're exactly right. I did invest in Russia several years ago. I thought I saw dramatic changes taking place. Now, of course, there is a war. So rarely is it good to go into a country when they're starting a war, or beginning a war. It's always great to invest in a country at the end of a war, whether they're winning or losing. It's always great to invest at the end of a war. I mean, right now I'm trapped. I don't have that choice. The money I put into Russia is still there. I hope I do. My perception of Russia is that there have been changes, big changes, by Mr. Putin. Now, of course, he's at war. And so we will have to wait and see. But I am certainly more optimistic about Russia now than in most of the last 100 years. But that's part of it because I'm trapped. You know, I went to war while I still had investments in Russia. I wish they'd call me and said, get your money out now before the war starts. They didn't call me. Do you think we've completely mismanaged our relations with Russia, at least in the West? If we're talking about Britain, I really do feel that we had a massive opportunity to develop good, stable, long-term relations with the Russians, very keen at that time. I remember the Russians were to work with us. Their economy was transforming. They'd undertaken an economic revolution after the fall of the Soviet Union, which is a astonishing event. And somehow, we pushed it and threw it all away, and lost what ought to have been a huge opportunity to invest in an economy, which could have been one of the most brilliant investment opportunities, like a dog generically for all of Europe, the one can imagine. But we pushed it away. Well, I mean, this is my own view. You were certainly right. 40 years ago, Russia was going through a huge change. It lasted a few decades. Then, of course, somehow or another, they got involved in this war in Ukraine. Doesn't matter who started it. It's there now, and that is changing the situation in Russia. And we'll see after the war. I would just repeat that normally if you invest in a country at the end of a war, it's a good opportunity. I suspect that will be true of Russia again. But right now, I mean, most wars have been pretty foolish historically, and this one's certainly historic, whether the Russian started or the American started, whoever started it. And it's not good for Russia or for anybody. But I still have my investments in Russia mainly because I'm trapped. I don't have any choice. But I am optimistic that when the war ends, I Russian investments will be OK. That has usually been the case in nearly every country after a war. Given on the, I guess, wider topic of war, as we see all of this economic problems building up, and I'm not seeing any convincing solutions by politicians. It seems as if with every problem, if it's borrowing and spending, and the solution tends to be more borrowing, spending, and while essentially kicking the can down the road, what are the societal implications? Do we should expect growing scapegoating, social unrest, internal conflicts? Again, we're sitting in Europe. I'm seeing democracy not doing very well in France. We have the party coming in third, insisting it should still rule. In Germany, they're talking about banning opposition. Now you have a similar story playing out in Austria. I was not quite happy with the election results. It seems as if we were ignoring the realities for as long as possible, but that only builds greater pressure for the future. How would you see the economic challenges translated into societal problems? Well, Glenn, if you go back and read European history before the First World War, I see a lot of similarities now. If you read European history before the Second World War, there are a lot of similarities. Now, I'm not saying it's the same. I'm just saying there are similarities that worry me, because the world often is at war with somebody. And I don't like what I see in Europe, especially compared to the First World War or the Second World War, but I have to face facts. I have to put my money somewhere every day. I have to have it somewhere. And I certainly don't like what I see in Europe. Not today. I'm not saying the-- oh, my gosh, the Germans are going to advance next week or anything like that, but I look back and see similarities. And I don't like the similarities. And if there's going to be more war in Europe or Russia or wherever, it's not going to be good for any of us, unless we happen to pick the right country at the end of the war. And most of us are not that smart, including me. Because I think you make a very good point, because one of the things that economists to develop need is stability. It seems to me, political stability. The United States had a very, very long period of political stability after the Civil War. And the American economy grew and developed. And there was strong rule of law at that time, strong defense of property rights, American legal system developed to an extraordinary period level during that time. The problem in Europe is that we are becoming politically more and more unstable. I think the United States is becoming politically unstable as well. Maybe I'm too pessimistic about the United States, but it seems to me so. Whereas Asia, by contrast, looks extremely stable, at least in the outside. Would that be true? Well, I mean, everything just said, I concur with, and I see the same things. I think you say that the US is stable. But since 1945, I think that was the day to use. America's often been at war. Nearly always been at war with somebody. But I'm an American taxpayer. I have to pay for all these wars. And America's now the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. And that's all happened since 1945. After the Second War, America came out of wonderful. We won the war. We've had huge assets, not many deaths. But that's all disappeared. And we have had several wars since 1945. I don't think we've won any of those wars since 1945. Maybe we say we won Korea, but other people say we didn't win Korea, et cetera. So I don't like what I see when I'm looking around the world. I mean, Alex, one good thing is I'm an old American. It's a good time to be an old American. It's not a good time to be a young American. Look at my children. Oh, my children are going to have the same kind of problems that the British had for many decades, because they are young Americans. And America's facing those. That's the same situation, which is going to get worse. I mean, I don't know if Asia's going to be great in the next 100 years, but it seems to me it's going to be less bad than Britain to pick a country at random, less bad than America to pick another country at random. I don't like saying any of it, but I think I have to face reality and face facts and certainly try to predict what's going to happen in the future. A key, I guess, well, pillar of the current economic system. It's obviously the United States dollar as the reserve currency, but as you pointed out as well, the debt seems to be coming, well, unsustainable, I think, you know, 35 trillion and a half in debt, but also a trillion dollar a year, only in servicing the debt. But for also the adversaries of the United States, I guess, most importantly, China, there's also concern that not only is this debt unsustainable, but also the dollar becoming weaponized in different sanctions. So there's a lot of talk now about the whole process of de-dollarization in which they shift into others. But obviously, not even China would like to see a collapse in the dollar. That would be very disruptive, even if it was feasible. But I guess in the short, medium, or long term, do you see the US dollar having the world de-dollarizing or do you think it will be a quick process one day? It will be a game of musical chairs. Everyone will seek to ditch it as soon as possible, or will it be a gradual transition in which the dollar will be won among many large currencies? Or how do you, I guess, see the future of the dollar, given that so much of the status quo and stability relies on it? - Which repeat that I own a lot of US dollars, but I do so because I see turmoil coming in the world. And during turmoil, people look for a safe haven. And at the moment, the US dollar has the image, the reputation of being a safe haven. It's not, and my plan, what it's worth, is when the turmoil comes and the dollar has a big rally, then I will be smart enough to sell it. I hope, I hope, but I see what you see. The US is doing a lot to encourage consciously or unconsciously de-dollarization. Even our friends, America's friends, are starting to say, "Wait a minute, they could do that to us too." Because the US keeps cutting people off from the dollar. And so America's friends worry. Some of them are starting to figure, "Oh, what are we gonna do?" We have to have an alternative plan. And I'm not the only one looking for an alternative plan. The world knows that Washington is not playing the same way we used to with the currency. And America's doing many things, consciously or unconsciously, to drive people away from the US dollar. And I hope that maybe one of you will tell me where to put it, which is the currency that I should go into. I don't think it's the pound sterling, but I'm looking. And if you know, please don't announce it on this show. Send me an email. (laughs) Send me a private email 'cause I'm looking. The other thing with sanctions, and this is something that I'm hearing from people in the shipping world, I should tell you that my nationality is actually Greek, and I do have contact with the shipping world, is that the sanctions are causing enormous problems in world trade, the way world trade now works, in that nobody knows whom to trade with, because with secondary and tertiary and cadruciaries, sanctions, you know. Sanctions, you think you are dealing with someone who is okay, and then you find that that person is dealing with someone who is trading with someone else, who is trading with Russia. And apparently, this is creating nightmare problems. It is creating enormous amount of disruption. It's also feeding corruption. This is what I'm hearing, because people are starting to sort of be more careful about what they disclose, and what they do, and money changes hands, and middlemen appear. Do you think anybody in Washington understands or cares about this? Because this must also be happened, and in fact, on the world economy, and must be also slowing down processes, especially in the West, where now the energy system, for example, has been hugely disrupted, and up food, trading food, and agricultural products has been disrupted as well. - Well, Alex, part of, I mean, everything you said is correct, but what you left out is that it's bureaucrats in Washington who make these decisions in the M, and I don't have too much confidence in bureaucrats anywhere, and they make many mistakes. And if the US bureaucrat decides next week that he doesn't like your tie, they're gonna put sanctions on you, whether you deserve them or not, and it's gonna be disruptive, certainly disruptive for you, and the people you deal with. And that's a lot of the problem now, as I see it anyway, that Washington, especially Washington, has imposed sanctions on many, many countries in the last few years, and they continue to do that. I don't know of many cases in history where sanctions have been successful, except for the politicians who get their picture on the television or something, but most sanctions have not been a big success, except for a few politicians. So I would certainly prefer a world with more open markets, more open societies, more open countries, but unfortunately, that has not been the case in recent years, and I'm afraid, like in other periods in history, it's going to get worse, and not better. It's always happened, Alex. All of a sudden there's a war over here, which most of us don't pay attention to, we ignore, but then a few years later, that turns into another war, and the next thing you know, there are huge disruptions everywhere, whether it's sanctions or tariffs or whatever. So I repeat that I see some similarities to now and the period before the First World War and the Second World War. One possible difference is those wars were mainly in Europe. I don't see Europe going to war with each other anytime soon, and although Ukraine is a war with a lot of its neighbors, and that's a European country, sort of. - I guess if you want to look at the economic wars, which could be converted into a, well, militarized economic disputes, obviously the United States and China is the main contender, I guess, but how do you see this economic war developing? Because the objective, I guess, to break China, it seems as if it's too late, there's been folks on reshoring in terms of cutting the United States off from the Chinese supply chains, that doesn't really seem to be working. We have this concept of Frenchoring, we're sourcing it from India instead, but then the Indians are sourcing, you know, sourcing more from China, and suddenly China and India is getting closer. So there seems to be a lot of, well, I guess mistakes being made. And when we saw cases like Intel, where they, well, we put a ban on, they put a ban on all these Chinese chips, it ends up, the Chinese being able to diversify, and the U.S. companies like Intel effectively losing their main consumer. I'm just, are these sanctions gonna have a big impact on China, or will they be able to simply learn to live without the United States? Do you see this escalating into war, or will they find a way back and avoidably have to work together, or is China gonna decouple? America cannot, what are the possible outcomes of this economic war? - This is a few pounds of perceptive, I'm glad I'm on this show, you're exactly right. Now, as I see it, China doesn't want to war with the United States, they've been remarkably restrained, America keeps hitting them in the face over Taiwan, which, I mean, my interpretation, who knows, but my interpretation is China knows they can just wait, they don't have to do anything, they have the same globe I do, and they know that someday, Taiwan's gonna be part of China again, if it's not already, because there's no choice, but they're not, so far, they've been restrained, and are not hit back as much as America has, and I don't know why America thinks they have to be aggressive over Taiwan, what difference does it make to the US? And if I had to repeat, if I were China, I would just wait, they don't have to be at any rush, I can see the same globe they can, but America has a long history of being aggressive in other parts of the world, and Washington seems to like throwing its weight around, and I'm afraid they're gonna do it again. Now, if that happens, I have read that the Pentagon has done war games over a war with China about Taiwan, and that their war games show that America cannot win a war over Taiwan, it makes sense to me, I can see the same globe they can, but if that's correct, that means that Washington, of course, is gearing up in case, and it may happen. I can see no reason at all, but America's had many wars that I could see no reason for. You look at what happened in Vietnam, where America started the war, and then blamed it on other people. Countries always blame other countries, when there's a historic reality, blame the other people, blame the other people, they're the bad guys, not my fault, I'm an American, couldn't be my fault. - Just the last comment from me, because I come from Britain, which is the former empire, the empire of the 19th century, if you wish, the country that went through its heyday. Isn't it always the case that when an empire declines, and I want to talk about an empire, I think there's a difference between a country, the United States, Britain, countries, but the empires that they run, when an empire falls, there is always a very difficult period of transition, and we've all got to get through it somehow or rather, but once we're through it, things begin to settle down, the world reorganises, things begin to then find their way. Is that what we are going through now, that we're going through a period of transition? The moment when the United States was globally dominant, is passing, it is no longer globally dominant in an economic sense in the way that it used to be. It inevitably, as a result, its ability to project its power and to control others is fading away, and that inevitably also causes disturbance and instability and economic stress, exactly as happened in the first half of the 20th century, but this is a transition period, and the big issue is to manage that transition well, and that's something that perhaps Asian countries with their long history and experience might be fairly well organised to do, just a question. - Well, again, the very perceptive insights, yes, the world 60 years ago, 70 years ago, the US was a gigantic creditor nation, now with the largest debtor nation in the history of the world. And when Britain's went through this, there was a lot of transition, instability, whatever you want to call it, and there's already starting to be some instability over the US dollar and America's position. As I've read history, I don't see any country that's ever gotten itself into America's situation and come out on top. You know, it always leads to, even if they come out on top, it's really in a greatly weakened position. The British won the Second World War. But they came out of that in a very, very weakened position, even though they say they won the war. So history's pretty clear that when countries go from being indisputably on top to something else, it causes turmoil and transition and difficulties. Again, I don't like saying any of this. I'm an American citizen. My children are Americans. But I don't see any alternative. You know, my problem is I can add and I can subtract. I'm afraid that people in Washington cannot add and cannot subtract. And history's very clear how this winds up for the country that's going through the transition issue, as you call it, transitions good word. It usually does not lead to great outcomes in the end. But I repeat to you, I'm an old American. So it's not such a problem for me as it is for my children and other old Americans. My last question is perhaps too specific and well, probably not of that great interest to our listeners. But given that I'm in Norway, I kind of have to ask. How do you see any good future for Norway? Is it surrounded, does it have good fundamentals, surrounded by a stable neighborhood? Do you think the country can adjust to the new realities of the world or cling on to the past? Or is it, you don't really have put your eyes that's specifically on Norway before? - Well, I'm certainly more optimistic that Norway can pull this off, partly because you have a reasonably small population and because you have a lot of oil. I mean, Glenn, if you give me the largest oil field in the world, I'll show you a very good time. We will have a wonderful future to get and bring all your friends as well. - No, I'm less pessimistic. I'm about Norway than other countries, certainly in Europe. But Norway will be affected. Norway in theory was sort of neutral in the Second World War, but you were affected badly. You had to be. If all of your neighbors are in a struggle, it affects you whether you like it or not. Maybe not directly, but Norway is a wonderful place. I love it. I am not as pessimistic about Norway as I am about Italy, or you pick any country in Europe. But if there is more turmoil in Europe, more problems in Europe, Norway will be affected. I mean, get out of map. You'll see. Norway has to be affected. - Well, it's not every day one gets to speak to Jim Rogers. So I want to thank you so much again for your time. It's been very, very interesting. - Absolutely. May I add my words to that? My thanks to that. - It's certainly been interesting for me because you guys have a kind of insights that programs like this should have. And I hope that all of us can learn from your insights. Now what you have to do is figure out the solution to your insights and to your observations. And then we will, are we even happier? - Well, Glenn offers many solutions. In the many books he writes, I would strongly recommend them, by the way. - Well, Alec, you did talk about Malaysia. I mean, Malaysia doesn't usually come up on most Westerners horoscope or a picture of the world. But I was interested, I'm very interested, because I am here. It's a neighbor that you, it's your observations. I certainly have noticed Malaysia's been making good changes in the last few years. Indonesia is another country in this neighborhood, which has been making great changes. I mean, India. I see India making great changes for the first time in my life, serious changes. So whether I'm right or not, but I do see big changes taking place, positive changes, taking place in this part of the world. And I hope we all benefit. I hope we all get it right and benefit. - Absolutely. Just to say the contrast between the mood in Malaysia that I saw in Kuala Lumpur and the mood in London could not be starked. - Well, I haven't been to KL in a little while. I was in London last week. So I have seen some of both. But back to your observations about Malaysia and the mind about other parts of Asia, I do see lots of positive changes. And I have been involved with India, for instance, for many decades. For the first time in my life, I see that Delhi understands prosperity, understands success and is not anti-success, is not anti-prosperity. And that, to me, is a huge change in India, which will make the world even better. Like was Indonesia, like was Malaysia. I mean, this part of the world is having some good changes. Now, Alex, what I suggest you do is go to North Korea and sort that one out, too. No, I say that a little facetiously, but remember, the kid is not North Korean. The kid grew up in Switzerland. Now, Alex said, "You rather live in North Korea or Switzerland?" Well, he had two. He'd rather live, but he can't leave. His father picked him. So he's trying to change. But it's extremely difficult for many reasons, historic and otherwise. But if and when North Korea changes, it's gonna be great opportunities for all of us. - No, I am not investing in North Korea. I cannot. I'm not allowed to. I'm not even allowed to visit North Korea anymore. I went twice in the past, but I think I see positive changes coming. And I think, Alex, you can go 'cause you're not an American citizen. Are you a clan or one out of both of you? So go and do a show from North Korea. Everybody will be shocked, including you. - Including me. Absolutely, absolutely, sir. Well, there we go. Just one more very last comment. All empires end in debt, Spain, France, Britain, maybe the United States too. So that's perhaps another sign that we're in an end of empire, ma'am. - Well, your observations, again, are very astute. I don't like saying it, but you know, when I was a kid, the U.S. was the largest creditor in world history, or certainly in history in the West. Now it's the largest debtor nation in the history of the world and gets worse every week, you know? 'Cause in Washington, they don't even seem to know and they certainly don't care. And that has never ended well. - The thing is that always economic activity moves elsewhere and the thing to do when it happens is to serve the wave. I'm not an investor. I've never been one in my life. I don't know how to do that, but that's what the investment community needs to think about and do. And maybe there aren't the obvious answers yet, but I'm sure you will find them. - I'm sure that the two of you will figure out the obvious answers and let us all know. It probably is a North Korea, but there are big changes taking place in North Korea. - Thank you. - Not for this audience or our audience, but who knows what the future will hold. - Sir, thank you very much for joining us today. It's been a great talk. - I'd like to show you more to find out what's coming. - And a pleasure, by the way, too. Give me just a great pleasure. - My pleasure. Certainly my pleasure and I've learned a lot. (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (upbeat music) (gentle music)