The Auxiliary Gate - Kentucky's Horse Racing Discussion
The First Wire - Keeneland Selections for Friday Oct 4th, 2024
They're at the post first wire. You're listening to the first wire, a Keeneland preview. And now here's your host, Trey server. Good evening and welcome to the debut of the first wire podcast. I am your host, Trey server. The Keeneland meat is finally here over the next 17 racing days. We have some of the best horses, jockeys and trainers getting ready for the penultimate goal of the Breeders' Cup, 2024. Thank you for joining me as we dig into the past performances and we look to make some money, just some quick stats about the fall meat of last year. The jockey standings overall Tyler Gaffleone. One 18 out of his 80 mounts and he ended up winning the jockey title. Louis Saez in the second with 15 out of 75 mounts. Looks like Flavian Pratt rode the most turf winners with 10. In the sprint races, Luis had 11. Tyler had 10 and John Velasquez had eight out of 31 mounts. So something to look forward to if he does come in. And the distance race is greater than six furlongs. Tyler won 15 to the 60 of those written in the fall. The trainers, Brad Cox won the overall training title with 13 wins out of 45 on the main track, Brendan Walsh had five winners out of 22 starters on the turf, which was the best. And it's a note, Brad Cox, Wesley Ward and Kenny McPeeek, when they combined zero for 45 last year on the grass. And I know there's a couple horses on Friday's card that look pretty good, but something to keep in mind about that. And sprinting, Brad Cox had eight. Steve asked me, said I had six and Wesley Ward had five. But I know Wesley Ward usually is geared for the spring. So something to look forward to is this maybe not doing so well in the fall. The one thing about Keeneland is the basically it's get to the rail and get to the front and it stays. Post positions are pretty important. Then post position 12 went combined two for 56 in all races. Post one through five had the most success in the route turf races. And post seven and beyond had the most on the sprints. So something to look forward to in the five and a half sprints, try to stick towards the outside. And the majority of the horses that won were either on or near the lead, which is about 55% of the races, 76 out of 137. And closers, unfortunately, last winter or I'm sorry, last fall, only one eight percent of the races. So something to look forward to. So if you're four links or farther back, based on the past tradition, you're in for a tough, tough time. And the turf was pretty fair. Overall, no post positions or speed closers, those kinds of things. So there's so much as I have to think about, look forward to. And I know with this gentleman, he loves the pedigrees and the stats. And he is the host of the auxiliary gate podcast. Not somebody that I'm looking forward to bringing on, but some of that I definitely need. And that would be Mr. C.C. Bratus. Welcome, C.C. How are you tonight? Hello, Trey. I'm sorry. I had to ruin your wonderful podcast this evening, but somebody had to do it. Well, you definitely sound better and we need to send with a little more expertise. So thank you for being here. Well, that is a, that's a term to be used lightly expert. Well, let's let's see how you pick him and maybe you can become that expert on this. And I'll let you have the mic from now on. No, I have enough. OK, so we're going to basically over the next 20 minutes, we're going to discuss the late pick five for Friday, one of my favorite bets, which is the Alturf pick three. And then I'd like to call it a wild card race, which basically is we pick a race and a bet of our choosing, which we might think we the best bet on the card. So let's get started here. The late pick five starts in race six. But there are a few horses in here that I like, first of which is the one air of defiance, speed on the rail for Tyler. Number two is Montalcino for Sherry Devaux. It was an impressive winter debut. And number nine band for life, who I've always been a fan of, is the class of this group with Louis Saez. And I typically am a smaller player. So if you'd like to add a few more, I think the three, the five or the seven or live, what do you think there? You know, linebackers, a horse, I'm really interested in. I know his connections, think highly of him. This horse came back and broke his maiden finally in his fifth start, but they actually had him on the Kentucky Derby Trail earlier in the year. He ran in the Southwest, the Southwest stakes didn't fare well, but he did come back in and run well at Ellis Park. And then a third place finished and a really tough allowance race at Churchill. So third start off a layoff. I think Mr. Jordan Blair has something for this crew. 14% out of 36 starts, third off the layoff with a positive ROI. And Edgar Morales is a really top notch jockey. I like linebacker a whole lot in here. OK, well, based on coming off the pace, he will definitely have the looks like the speed to run into. So that would, that looks good. The next race is race seven, which is the six furlong, Keenan, Ogden, Phoenix stakes, grade one going except six furlongs. I actually landed on a single here just because I feel like the races elsewhere are pretty tough. And that would be number four, Nakatomi, just one, the grade one, Vanderbilt, at Saratoga. So that's where I'm going to land. About yourself. Yeah, I don't blame you. This horse, you know, Wesley Ward, this is right up his alley. He likes to space these horses, races out. And last time he won the grade one Vanderbilt beating the horse named Skelly. Now, Skelly's kind of had a star crossed a year. I started out as probably one of the best horses in the country. And then I think maybe his last three starts, he's gone off favor. And then he's lost every single one of them having the lead early and then just getting run down late in the lane. So, you know, maybe, maybe take some points away from Nakatomi, but he's still going to be tough to beat in here. There's a couple in here that I think are interesting. Number two, hear my song, who is owned by a guy named Nathan Hayden, who we actually had on the podcast. I think last summer, he's a really nice guy from Western Kentucky. Hear my song has never been out of the exact, uh, at Keeneland. He's, uh, he's run four times, two wins, two seconds. And one of those wins was a steak trace. He won the Commonwealth Steaks last year. And I think he's probably just right now he's doing it as well as he's ever had. And I think he's got a shot in here. The other horse, I think is interesting is number three, my buddy, B. And this horse actually started, or yeah, he's raised a turf way over the winter for a Palo Lobo and he got claimed and lo and behold, he's now a steaks horse for a trainer. I don't know a whole lot about Krista Hetrick, but she's a high percentage trainer and this horse is written by a jockey that not a lot of people know about. He's more of a mid Atlantic, maybe like a mountaineer to, uh, to Delaware. I think he's ridden kind of all over the place, uh, you know, how are the places, but a guy named Jon Avilas. And I think he's pretty decent. Jocky. I've seen him ride before. He, he usually delivers a smart ride. So I think both of those horses are fast enough to get a part of this phoenix steaks and maybe, uh, maybe a pathway to the breeder's cup sprint. Okay. Well, neither one of us mentioned federal judge. Does that horse have any interest on the rail for you? Absolutely. The horse, uh, yeah, it's probably going to be on the lead and you get flavoring Pratt for your trouble. So this horse is probably live. And like I said, if you're going to spread and use the, uh, the two and the three and the four, uh, might as well just use the one because, uh, yeah, you, you get the best of everything with federal judge. I, I have no problem using that horse. Okay. All right. Well, like I said, I'm trying to go thin because I've got to go deep elsewhere, but I definitely agree with what you said there. Uh, race, uh, eight is the, uh, mile a sixteenth adjustment stakes for fillies two year old on the turf. Uh, again, this race seemed like it was pretty wide open. Uh, first horse that I came across was number two, Eilof Capri. Um, he won impressively, uh, for Kentucky Downs for Brendan Walsh. And if I recall he was a tip horse that day and obviously ran to it. Uh, number six, Dostino de Oro, uh, also, uh, was an impressive winter. Kentucky Downs trained by Brad Cox. But like I mentioned previously, he, uh, hasn't struggled on the turf, uh, in recent times, so kind of makes me a little bit hesitant to play that horse. I know he's a, uh, a relative to some of the really like, uh, in the, on the card as well. Um, number 11, Miss Linnell, uh, this is a horse that I bet at Ellis, uh, for Wayne Catalano, uh, on debut just missed and then came back and won at Kentucky Downs. And the last horse that caught my eye was the eight Mayday ready for Frankie De Tory. But if you told me you liked anybody else, I couldn't take talk you off of it because I felt like you could basically use just about anybody in this race. Yeah, this is a, this is a tough test. Uh, a lot of these fillies, uh, I'd say a handful of them will probably come out of this race and go to, uh, to the breeders kept juvenile fillies turf. My top pick is a number two, Eilof Capri. I think she just looks like a really nice filly. It looks like I got a big body and, and, uh, Brendan Walsh supposedly is loaded with a two year old talent this fall. Tyler Gaffley on rides. I really liked her debut. Sometimes you can't take a lot out of races. It can take you down. So it's a, it's a funky race course and some horses run the race. Some horses don't, but I did look like the way she looked. And it's interesting that her full sister is running earlier on the card. I think she's going to be a heavy favorite. And I think it's in race number three. Yeah, upon a star, it's going to be a heavy favorite in race number three. She's the 11 filly in there. So yeah, that's interesting. It could have two full sisters when on the same day, a horse that you didn't mention that we probably should take a look at would be the number. Lost my place here. Sorry about that. Dead air is never good when you're doing a podcast, but, uh, number seven. Ballerina Doro is a filly. I'm kind of interested in just because, uh, I thought her last race was kind of impressive. And it was her second career start and she looked hopelessly beating at the top of the stretch. And since it could take you down, it's going a mile. Uh, she was way slowly really far back top of stretch and she just found a gear. Now part of it could be that the race fell apart. I do see that they ran the last quarter and 25 and four, fifth seconds, but she was absolutely rolling and got up desperately on the wire. So maybe a filly that, uh, gets better with every start. It's Chad Brown. So, you know, uh, you know, she's going to get the best of everything. Jose Ortiz will ride. I think, uh, maybe, maybe a horse that, uh, to watch for late. Okay. I said the one horse to that you're talking about, maybe long shots. Number 10, Italian. So I, uh, Louis size is picking up this mount and they thought so however that they basically went from the dirt at Saratoga and they ran her at a grade one at Woodbine. And, uh, she didn't, didn't do too bad finishing fourth out of 11. And now they're bringing her back here. So it might be somebody else to add on the ticket, uh, if you're looking to spread. Um, John Terranova, top not straining. He's actually got a horse in on Saturday that I really liked. So we'll, we'll talk about that one on the next pod. Okay. All right. When race nine is the big one, the Darby acid bodies, uh, amount of 16th filly two year olds, uh, this race, I think there's only, uh, eight horses. And I honestly think that maybe all eight could win. Uh, I went back and watched some of the replays of her previous years. And it looks like either first second or like within a couple links of the lead one. Uh, not many closers came. So that kind of factored into my handicapping there. Uh, so I ultimately leaned on number eight, immersive for Brad Cox. I just think she should be forwardly placed and get first run on who I believe should be on the lead is rich city girl. I know that's somebody that you've been high on. Um, number three, Liam and the dust is another one that caught my eye. Uh, she ran second in the Pocahontas last out from the 14 hole. And everybody else that was up near the pace that day kind of faded and she was still coming on. And the last one will be number seven, uh, quiet side, uh, for Louis size and John Ortiz. Those are the three that I'm going to stick with. But like I said, you could, I, you could make a case where I think all eight of them in this race, you know, I think the, uh, what you have to decide is how high you want to grade the spinningway stakes at Saratoga. Cause you got three of the fillies in this spot, actually four of the fillies come out of that race. Uh, number two, Shurbini was third. And then number five, the Queen's MG was a well beaten fifth. And it was on a muddy track though. And then of course the outside to number seven, quiet side and number eight, immersive. So yeah, four or the eight come out of that race. And like I said, it's on a muddy track. You're not going to get a muddy track on Saturday. I think it's going to be a beautiful day. It's going to be fast. Excuse me, not Saturday on Friday. And, uh, yeah, I don't know. I think, uh, like you said, rich city girl is going to set the pace. Whether she goes too fast, it may be a problem, but I know his trainer is very high on her. Now judging on her last race, she may not want to go a distance because she was life and death to hold off a long shot to win that allowance race. It can take you down. So yeah, I'm probably going to lean toward the favorites here. Number seven, quiet side, number eight, immersive. Uh, but Shurbini is a failure that I think is interesting. She, uh, I thought I liked to have she closed last time after, after a slow start. And she didn't come on to finish third. So maybe distance might be her friend. So, yeah, for me, I will use the two, seven and eight, uh, in most of my wagers. Okay. Interesting to note that Bobby Filet is part owner of that two or Shurbini. Yeah. What about that? I wonder if he'll be there Saturday or Friday. I won't be there, unfortunately, to know or find out, but yeah, that would be cool. If he was there. Yeah, I got to work. Yeah, me too, which is probably a good thing. All right. Well, moving on to the last race on Friday is race 10, which is a, uh, uh, five and a half allowance on the turf, um, for fillies that basically have not done a whole lot, maybe one, two races other than basically is what it looks like to me. Uh, I'm liking every other race in this sequence. I think it's pretty wide open as well. Uh, like I said earlier, post on the outside seem to be doing well. The six Berea, uh, might be somebody to look at, uh, the eight Nikki nine doors caught my eye for a Chris Davis, uh, and a horse that I've always been high on, but doesn't seem to be doing very well. And it's three year old year after having a huge two year old year is the 11 amidst waves. Uh, I'm going to hope that there's a little bit of pace up front from the inside horses and flaving can work out a trip and, uh, the 11 would be my top pick in that race. Nice 12 to one morning line at the night. So you, you'll probably get ever bit of that too. And just a little bit of a, a drop in class coming out of, uh, several stakes races in a row. So yeah, I like that selection. The one I landed on was number eight Nikki nine doors who has a win over the turf course back in the spring. As I recall, I'm sure she knocked me out of something. Yes, she was 25 to one that, that afternoon. And, uh, Chris Davis has really been on fire all summer here in Kentucky. And yeah, he's got a positive ROI for all starts. In 2024. So that's fairly impressive. And Nikki nine door should set off what should be a contested pace. And yeah, just her affinity for the turf course. And I would expect her price to be somewhere in the range of four to one. I think, uh, for me, that's the one I like the most. Okay. Well, the ticket that I came up with, and like I said, I usually don't have too high of a price tag on here. I've got the one two nine with the four with the two six eight 11 with the three seven eight with the six eight 11. And that came out to $67 and 50 cents. Sounds good. I'm going to do something a little different. I'm going to play doubles. Okay. And I'm going to try to play small ball because I'm not in love with anything today. So for me, I'm going to play something like in race eight, I'm going to play a double. And that would be number two and just go single number two in the double. I'll look at pre as we mentioned earlier, I'm going to run two into the two seven and eight. So for a two dollar wager, that's six dollars, two with two seven eight. And then I will play it like a, maybe a minor double, maybe like a two to six quick kick for a Tom Amos. And, uh, so same horses in race number nine. I'm just going to key those with number, uh, number. That number eight, Nikki nine doors in the last race. So once again, I'll have, uh, two seven eight. With the eight, Nikki nine doors and then a smaller double with the six with the eight. For a buck. So I'm once again, it's a seven dollar wager. And I'll just try to hammer those and see if I can get lucky. And honestly, nothing else on the card really excites me. There's, there's a couple heavy favorites. And early on in the card, uh, that's probably not my forte. So we'll try to avoid that and just try to hammer the hammer. The race is late in the day and maybe try to get lucky on one of those. Do you, do you have any opinion on the turf pick three? Yeah, I was looking at that. So two of my singles are in that turf pick three. Like I said, Nikki nine doors in the last race and then. Uh, the, uh, Olive Capri would be in the, the second leg adjustment. I was looking at the, uh, the first leg of that, uh, turf pick three and a king founded. Yeah. Okay. It's just allowing traces. So. Yeah, I think that race is pretty wide open. I think it's pretty tough. You know, dreaming of Mo had has a chance in here, I think, because she had a nice winter Churchill back in the spring. You know, good American makes her second start for a nacho Correas, who's a really good trainer. The points toward this Keeneland meet. And he brings back Vincent Chamonot, who is a nice, nice rider. But, uh, it's, uh, it's wide open. I mean, you know, if I like those two horses in the last two legs, American just go five by one by one. And that's a $15 wager. So. Yeah. You know, we'll see, we'll see that. Okay. Uh, I don't know. I like my double wagers though better. I may try those instead. Well, I've got, I've got a suggested pick three. Like I said, I don't know if I'll play it because it's $48, which for me is a little steep, but I've got the 1 8 9 10. With the 2 6 8 11. And then I'm going to single admits waves in my third leg to make it a $48 ticket. All right. I like that. I like, I like being aggressive with the men's waves. That's a, that's good. Now, make sure. Make sure you get a good win bet on that. If you're not alive to anything to a men's waves, make sure you get a good wind bet down because that's, yeah, get your price. And I'll probably be, uh, discouraged and not want to play it. All right. So we're, yeah, we're going to hold you to this. We got it. We got it. We got to play more wind bets. True. Less exotics. All right. One, one last thing here before we let you go. Do you have a. Your own, like your, my choice bet, basically, would pick a pick a racer, a bet that besides the doubles. Oh, I would probably since I like. I'm narrow in two of those races. I would probably play that late pick four as well. Okay. And, you know, like in Ray seven, that's the Phoenix stakes. I'd use those first four. Federal judge here, my song, my buddy B and knock it on me. And, uh, you know, I could go maybe like four by two by four by one or something like that. You know, I may, may double up and use a ballerina de Oro or, or destiny. You know, or maybe I could go four by three by four by one. That would be four times three is 12 times four to 48 times a half as a 24 dollar ticket. So that's not going to kill me. No, I like that. Yeah. Uh, now the ring race is three and four. Race three. You said there's a supposed monster to the Cox horse number 11. And, and the next race is number six, I believe, which is also a Cox horse. I don't know if you bet those two together, it might pay a dollar or $2 for a double. So the, so if you want to hammer that you could, I was going to try to play a double in that race 11 with the five, six at 11. Or try to beat the 11, the first leg into a nine 12 with the six. I figured one of them's got a win, but maybe not both of them. So cover your basis there. I think, I think the 11 is going to be really tough. I know they had high hopes for her back in the spring. Or exactly the winner. I should say they had her working with Kentucky Derby starter just a touch way back at fairgrounds. And, you know, just to touch out worked her, but she did show some talent in her first start. I can't remember the name of the horse at Beater, but I know it was the Phil Bauer family that beat her that day. So yeah, she's, I think that's right. May have my horses confused, but yeah, I know, I know this, this Philly is that they like her a lot. And she actually outworked the Philly that won Suke Plaza on Sunday. The last race at Churchill on Sunday in Suke Plaza was outworked by this Philly upon a star. Okay. Well, that might be a way to get some early money and then transferred over to your late pickfiver. In your case, your pick fours and doubles. Yeah, I'm getting for anything. All right. Well, hey, I appreciate you joining me this evening for the Friday card. And like you said, we will be back for the Saturday edition. And for CC Broadus, this is Trey Server. And thank you for joining the first wire. [MUSIC PLAYING]