Gorilla Sports
Gorilla Sports podcast NFL edition with @JWeb777
[MUSIC] I'm excited to talk week five with you, man. We missed last week. >> How'd you do? >> I had a great week. >> Did you? >> Absolutely. So the prime, I think getting killed on prime time games. >> That's so funny. I'm the absolute opposite. I am crushing the solo games that I can watch and study and live bet crazy. I've been absolutely destroying it. It's all like the chats with my friends and stuff. We're all killing it on live betting. But it's like, yeah, but when I'm not watching or I've got red zone going, I'm kind of just following my bets. I'm not looking to bet anymore because I already have a ton of action going. But it's like when you can really watch the game flow of a game, you could really get into it. Justice Hill, I bet him about seven times over his receiving yards. And it just kept going up and up. And it was just check mark, check mark, check mark. I was like, okay. >> That's awesome, dude. >> Yeah, it was sweet. >> That is very cool. Well, let's get into it for week five. I know we want to get through not every game because not every game is worth talking about right now. But I think there's a lot of good stuff on the card. And we'll start with Thursday night. >> Sure. >> The Boston Falcons, Atlanta, one and a half point favorites at home. The total is actually moved up on this one. So maybe we get some offense. It opened at 42 and a half. It's pretty widely available at 44 right now. You can find the occasional 43 and a half. I think this is a Bucky Irving coming out night. >> Really, yep. >> I'm a big fan of Bucky Irving. I think that he is far superior to Rashad White in just about every aspect of the game. They've been slowly ramping up his workload. Todd Bowles is stubborn. He's not ready to commit to him. I think he's got some loyalty to Rashad White. But one of my favorite, my favorite prop on this game is Bucky Irving's receiving yard over. >> And what's the number? >> It was six and a half earlier. That's when I got it. It's seven and a half right now. I still think it's worth a bet at seven and a half. I would probably, I still think about eight and a half and I'd probably be done at that number. But I think that he's going to get some rushing. I think they're going to split that up. But he's looked really good catching the ball too. He could break that in one catch, no problem. Screen, they move him out wide, whatever it may be. So that's one of my biggest takes on the, I don't have anything on the total, on the spread. I'm honestly leaning towards Buck's money line. The Falcons defense, the Falcons got lucky as hell to win that game against the Saints. I mean, to not score an offensive touchdown, it come out ahead. And that one, like having to hit that long field goal at the end. The Saints made a lot of, the Saints made a lot of mistakes and also Derek Carr was not willing to throw the ball more than three yards downfield. That's not going to be the case with Baker. So I, I liked the buck to win this one outright. I like that call. I like that call for sure. I got one play on the other side on Atlanta. I'm taking Beijon over his receiving yard total. So you're not worried at all about the hamstring. I am. Don't get me wrong. I got that for like two weeks, right? Like he's, every week he's had the cue, am I missing something that, that I don't know? No, I think, I think he's probably fine. And it's just so frustrating, man. Like the Tyler Algier plays like, you don't know that thing that worries me with Beijon. And I think the receiving angle is the way to go as opposed to, yep, but it's just so frustrating how they just like will not let him be an 80% workload back when he just looks so much better than, than Algier does. Algier's looked OK, though, right? He's actually getting a lot more run, right? He's out running him. He's got better yards for Kerry than he does, but it might actually help into my receiving yard prop knowing that like he's got the fresher legs. So if he's like a, you know, a first down runner and he goes for, you know, eight yards, they may go Beijon's way, but like he's covered this in two out of the four games. It's set at 25 and a half receiving yards, but he's averaging 34 receiving yards a game. He's got four catches over his last three games each. Tampa Bay gives up the second most target, second most receiving yards to the running back position. So I don't know. And literally every single back has covered their number versus Tampa Bay so far this year. Barkley, Javonte Williams, David Montgomery, and Brian Robinson have all covered their receiving prop totals versus, versus Tampa Bay. So I like, yeah, give me Beijon over that 25 and a half. I haven't bet this one, but, and we can move on after this. I wonder if they try to get manufacturers more touches for Kyle Pitts with all the questions that have been about the fact that he had a goose egg last game. So that, and then also maybe Drake London with Antoine Winfield is still out for the box. Does that help London out a bit? The, I mean, it's like cousins loves Mooney and Ray Ray McCloud, like those are the guys that can't look to the outside. Yeah. So maybe, maybe that's a way to go about it. But I think for our plays that we discussed, uh, the over on a couple of running back receiving props with Beijon and Bucky Irving, let's go to the Sunday morning game, early, early game over in London, uh, Jess and the Vikings. I, I love these. Cause it starts at 7 30 in the morning, my time. So it's like, yeah, I got brew pot of coffee, boom, there's football on, like there's just nothing better than that. Absolutely. Vikings are two and a half point favorites. Total is 40 and a half the Vikings, uh, through four weeks of like one of the best teams in the NFL, I couldn't be happier to be sitting on a Vikings, NFC North 10 to one ticket, uh, no, uh, yeah. And then I also have 22 to one, uh, to win the NFC outright is that like plus 650 now. So feeling pretty good about that. The jet, the jets look rough, man. Like that game against the Broncos, their offense could get nothing going. And a bunch of that was the Broncos defense. I think a lot of that though is the O line for the jets. Not very good. That's not going to be a positive against the Vikings who love to bring the blitz. So I see, you know, under a field goal, I think the, uh, the Sam Darnold magic can continue. They're putting him in so many good positions. Uh, Jefferson has looked like an absolute beast, Addison's looking good. Aaron Jones still playing well. So I, I like the Vikings in this one and when they get hot, it's in back in a few weeks, look out. Yeah, absolutely. Yeah. I like that take two. I mean, I don't understand like the disrespect like Minnesota, only a two point, two and a half point favorite. I mean, what have the jets showed us? But like, you know, discombobulation, I mean, it, honestly, this is a get right spot for the receivers because the Vikings give up the most receiving yards to the wide receiver position and the most passing yards to the QB position granted. They've led, you know, obviously last week, they're up 21 to 28 to nothing. So obviously love had to throw a ton in that game, but, uh, I, I'm going to literally take every single jets receiver over their total today. Yeah. I'm still like projections are, are looking pretty good. You know, one thing just from a broader standpoint, I've noticed, I use a lot of projections for my prop betting and I've noticed that I have to like reevaluate things when it comes to running backs. Like the NFL is just different this year and the distribution with a lot of these guys prime example being Breeze Hall and Braylon Allen. Yeah. Braylon Allen looks so much more explosive out of the backfield. Breeze Hall can still line up and catch balls, but like are the workload differences going to be different than what is being used in the projections? And that's where I've been like, I've gotten burned and I'm starting to ease off of running back rushing props just because like, you know, whether it's the bangles with Chase Brown and Zach Moss or what we just talked about with both the teams in the previous game with the bucks and the Falcons, you have a lot of these spots where it's like, it's, it's easier to project, you know, quarterback and then in turn wide receiver workloads at this point than it is running back. And I think you just, you know, for me personally, I've had to adjust and learn a lot these first four weeks. That's I actually really liked that take because the projections can't really, you know, they're going to have them for 16 carries, but he isn't getting 16 carries. So you got to kind of, you know, look into your own watch and your own kind of eye test to see, you know, what they're actually doing. So check this kind of strategy last week in that same game in the Green Bay game. I took their three receivers and I put them all at 70 plus receiving yards. So my idea was that they're going to have to throw a ton. The Vikings defense in their secondary is absolutely getting just scorched, right? They're giving up, like I said, the most amount of yards to the QB and the most amount of yards to their wide receiver position. So once I put them all at 70 plus, I was like, one of these guys has to get 70, but I don't know who it's going to be, but neither do the books either. So all of their lines are kind of set around 50s, right? 40s and stuff like that. So when I took Reed, uh, Dobbs and Watson, it was like, if Reed gets the 70 yards, which is the most likely event, it's at plus 205, which covers the other two bets. And then Dobbs was at plus 325 and Watson at plus 400. So my thinking was if two of these guys could get there, you're going to make a chunk of money. If one of the other guys gets to the 70 yard marker, then you're still going to win money at plus 325 and plus 400. So it ended up being only Reed got there. So at $50 bets, I won like literally $2 and 50 cents after it all came up. But I mean, Watson got hurt. So it was the, uh, Dontany V and wicks that came in and he ended up getting 70 yards. So if that kind of wasn't the case, then two of them probably could have come through, which I thought was kind of clever. So that's why I'm kind of deciding to literally, I've, I've put a bet on, uh, Watson, Lazard and Williams already. All right. All right, I, uh, that's an interesting approach to take. Um, I want as the season goes on, I want to hear kind of how it's going too. Well, it was just this one shot and it was just against Minnesota, just because they have three kind of one B receivers, obviously now, uh, Jayden Reed's obviously kind of taken a little control. Obviously he's gone nuclear a couple of times already, but I knew that like I kind of went back through the game log and all of them had kind of hit 70 or close to 70 at one game or another when the others didn't. So it was like, look, if, if one of the lower guys hits the 70 and plus 400, that's a winner. You know, you're now talking a plus 200 victory. So I was like, that's kind of clever. And I was like, I ended up kind of working out, but, uh, I would only kind of do that when the three kind of, you know, totals are a little lower. So I haven't done it for the 70 yards with these guys because I, I mean, it would be more like 50 yards or 40 yards. Yeah. But I mean, it was 40 probably like you probably like 60 with Wilson and then like 40 with the other two. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Exactly. Well, I mean, uh, Mike Williams is averaging 40. He's in his is that 28? Well, I bet it at 28 and a half. It's up to like, think 33 and a half or 34 and a half. So I got a really good number of that when I first came out. I love Wednesdays when they just start putting it out and you're like, that number's wrong. Go. So, uh, but yeah, like he's covered this in two and his last three games. That's Mike Williams, uh, Lazard has covered three out of four games at his 33 and a half. He's averaging 51 and a half and we're again against a bad secondary that well, I mean, it's not about secondary. They're just giving up a ton of junk plays. The only one that I've actually worried about is, is Wilson, who's, you know, supposed to be the alpha, but, uh, I mean, if he can't get right this game, I'll never put another bet on him again. That's it. He's in my doggos. That's probably a good call. All right. Let's keep it moving. Uh, we can go real quick through this one. Panthers bears. I bet the Panthers at minus four, I still like it at that. And then I also like Caleb Williams under on passing yards. Uh, the bear, the Panthers secondary is low key. Pretty good. They also have a really good offensive line. One of the best in the league, uh, people don't realize that. So I like the Panthers, uh, getting the points and I like under on Caleb's passing yard. Give your thoughts on this and then we can move on to the next one. Uh, I was looking at DeAndre Swift. I mean, he kind of came out of the dust last week. Um, kind of covering his total going on 90 something plus yards, uh, versus a bad Rams defense. Um, but the Panthers, they give it the second most rushing yards. So they're running back. So I was kind of looking at DeAndre Swift and it was numbers like 47 and a half, something like that. I mean, if you're the guy and you're getting the amount of carries you're supposed to in a, you know, a game against a team that you're supposed to be favorite, I mean, 47 and a half yards. I mean, you should be able to get there. I haven't pulled the trigger on that yet, but that's one that I was looking at. Yeah. That's one where the projections like it, I still just have a hard time with like, what the hell they're going to do from game to game with little Herbert and Rocha Johnson. So I'm not quite there. I don't know if I can pull the trigger, uh, what's, what's the projection? Do you know what? Do you have it off and are close? Uh, let me pull it up real quick. I believe it was like 60 something. Um, right? Yeah. Yeah, it shows value. Yeah. Yeah. All right. Let's go to Brown's commanders, commanders three point favorites at home total 43 and a half. I was feeling great about my Malik neighbors working at the year bet and then Jane Daniel started going nuclear. And so now I'm a little, getting a little worried about it, uh, just with how good Jaden has looked now. Maybe this is a week where he has a tougher go of it against the Brown like he's gotten some weak defenses, absolutely bangles, cardinals. So maybe, maybe there's an op because I do think that Jaden is the real deal. So my hope here is that the commanders don't look quite as good. Meanwhile, neighbors has a good game against the Seahawks who are just destroyed on defense come off the short week. I mean, I can sell high on Malik neighbors. That's kind of my hope with that one. But for this game, it's gross to say, but the Browns getting the points is my play. I don't love it, but I think it's the right side. I think that, you know, Miles Garrett is going to be bringing pressure on them. I think that they have enough on defense to slow down this, uh, this commander's team. So that's the only thing I got for this one. Uh, what to, you know what I'm looking at is, uh, is actually Jerry Judy. Believe it or not. Most of Jerry, Judy, you're a, you're old boy. Um, I mean, he's actually playing, he's out playing, um, uh, Amari Cooper on the other side. And Amari Cooper has, uh, I think the third lowest separation grade. And because the Browns offensive line is so terrible, like the shot Watson has to look to see that guys open right away and get rid of it because he has no time to do anything. And actually last year, Jerry Judy was one of the best in the league at separation. So I think that's kind of why he's getting all of the extra targets. And not having any chemistry with this guy and Amari Cooper, you know, he keeps having these boomer bust games that you don't really know, but, uh, I mean, I have, uh, Cooper on a fantasy team. So I have been kind of watching him, but it's like he's not getting a target for like an entire half of the game and it's like because he's not separating and that's, he's never really needed to, but I just don't think to Sean Watson has like the courage to, to get it to him. And I think Jerry Judy's lines at 44 and a half and I mean, he's covered that in two of the four games, he's averaging 49 and a half. I don't buy Jerry Judy over his receiving crop total. I like that. Yeah. And I mean, they can throw on this secondary. So I don't see the bad color. Yeah. Absolutely. Yeah. I got, oh God, just a vent for a second. I got screwed in that Browns Raiders game last week. Did you see the touchdown that was called back against Amari Cooper? I did. I did. I was watching that one live and I was like that. It's not a whole, what are you joking? That's not a whole. Yeah. I had the Sean and Amari over's in a big way on passing yards and receiving yards. That one penalty was like a $1,400 swing. I wanted to fucking punch up. All right. Let's move on to what I think is a much better game. Ravens and bangles Cincinnati catching two and a half points at home total at last look was around 50 and a half, which I think is a bit high. I'm actually on the under in this game. It's coming down. I see a 49 now. Yeah. Is it just on a 49? Okay. Classic AFC North like slugfest is a little bit more explosive. You know, can the bangles hold up against Derek Henry who is just looks like a man possessed right now, but I think this is going to be a really fun game. I don't know what side like I'm probably not going to be on the side. I would everyone's going to want to be on the Ravens. And so I could see waiting on this and trying to get a three on the bangles. I don't know if it will happen, but that would be, you know, that's the only really a way I would bet this one. I'm not going to bet the Ravens on the road as a two and a half point favorite. I'd kind of wait to see if I could get the bangles plus three. You have any props you like in this game? I, well, they haven't come out with my guy yet. So was it last week or the week before I was on Mike a sick. It was last week and he had one catch for negative nine yards. I'm going to take as soon as they bring it out, Eric, all. Have you seen this, this kid? They love this kid here. Yeah. So like Zach Taylor just keeps praising him. He's like, what was it? You could put a lot on his plate and he keeps ringing the bell. So you got to keep giving him more was his coach speak. And I was just like, yeah, you really do. He's had four catches and three straight games. Baltimore allows the second most receiving yards to the tight end position. And they love this kid. And I can't imagine it's going to be any higher than like 22, 23 and a half, something like that, really low. And I mean, four catches, I can see him getting there. Yeah, he, that was another player who beat me up pretty good on a prime time slate. He's a good tight end, man. I mean, he's better than just, he's better after the catch than he than just, he is. So they need that other option. I feel like he's kind of almost taking over sort of the Tyler Boyd role. That was. Yeah. Exactly. I think, you know, to go along with what I said with the under, looking at projections, the passing unders are one way to look at it as well. I think burrow, you know, two, 15 and a half is a lot of yards against what is a pretty good Raven's defense. So I think that that could be an approach to take and maybe we get a real run heavy game from the Raven. So I like the passing unders, anything else in this one that you like? No, I would lean Baltimore's way. But I mean, I'm captain Joe public when it comes to, I'm literally stop betting sides and totals now. I just, I won't do it. I'm pretty good at betting props. And it's like, you know, you get the same game parlays and things like that. And I'll add who I think is going to win and I'll check mark all of these props off and then just pick the wrong team to win and be like, why did I just do that? Like, so if I was to lead, I would take Baltimore. But I mean, since he hasn't showed me anything yet, I mean, this is a big time game. They're beating nobody's and then all of a sudden they're like, Oh, we got our first win. And it's like, okay. Yeah, but who did you beat? Yeah. No, that's fair. It's going to be, it's going to be a fun game. I think there are some really good games in the early window. Like the next, we're going to talk about bills and your boys, you know, it's coming. This game is basically at a pick them total is 47 and a half. You know, we're going to see what the bills are really made of after that embarrassment of a game that they had against the Ravens on a Sunday night. I mean, I knew it was absolutely fucked from the very first play when Derek Henry is having yard touchdown just blew by everyone's like, okay, this is a bad, bad spot. And you know, the bills start to make a little bit of a comeback and then they do that stupid ass trick play. Yeah, Josh Allen killed. I want like that, that pissed me off. Like they just go or touched down. They got the ball back. They were moving it. Why do you got to do that shit right there? Like it was just and call it hindsight bias, whatever. It was just ridiculous. And then, you know, the, the Derek Henry fumble that gets landed on by by regard in the end zone. Like, yeah, this game, this game's over. Hopefully they show some resolve and bounce back. It is the Steph Diggs revenge game for the Texans, the Texans are getting back tank Dell. We're going to have their full arsenal of wide receivers, Nico Collins leading the league and receiving yard. He's an absolute stud so far this year. I don't have a pick on like, for me as a, as a fan of the bills, I don't usually bet on them very often. I don't have a bet on this game. I don't have a bet on the total. I think I'll just be watching as a fan with my bills futures. But what do you see in here on the prop side of things for, I, I'm hoping that I'm hoping mixins ago, he was, he was questionable to go last week and now I think he was limited this week. But I think we're not going to know for a while, but I know Buffalo gives up a ton of receiving yards to the running back position. Obviously, Justice Hill, that was kind of one of my plays. I mean, I started at 15 and a half and I had them all the way up to, I think, 62 and a half receiving yards by the end of it when I just kept like, he'd take a 20 yarder. I'm like, okay, bet it again, bet it again. And it was like, because Buffalo kept coming back and like having a game, like it was almost like Baltimore could have ran away with it, but didn't and kept like kind of making that one mistake where the game wasn't over kind of deal. So I knew that they were going to kind of keep having to, to throw. But yeah, I'm hoping to get mixin on a receiving yard prop, but they haven't released anything obviously not knowing whether he's going to play or not, but that's one thing that I'm waiting to see. Yeah, I think tomorrow is the big day. Wednesday is usually like veteran rest days. If he, if he practices, even though limited capacity tomorrow, then he's good to go. And that's a matter of waiting for that line to come up. I do think we're going to see the bills throw a lot in this game. That's how they attack the Jags because the Jags have a good run defense. The Texans have one of the best run defenses in the league. They have a good secondary, too, and can be wrong, but that is the weaker of the two areas. So I could see this being a, you know, Josh comes out slinging a game, his line. I'm actually, I need to bet this right now. I'm going to bet this as we're talking about it because I don't want to, you know, talk about this and then forget next thing, you know, the numbers gone up. 230 and a half on FanDuel. Yep. I'm going to take the over on Josh. That'll be my only, only position on a bills player probably in this game, but I think he can go over that number. I think this could turn into a high scoring game and you take two, three, zero and a half, two, 30 and a half. Yeah, on fan. Oh, that's not bad. Yeah. Two 33 on DK. So that's a good number. Yeah. I'm taking this one. That'll probably be my only, only real position this game. I don't know if James Cook, you know, I don't think he, you know, he'll probably be fine but. Yeah. And I was looking at his overs, but like you said, they do have a good defense. This is a tough game to call, you know, kind of where each team is excelling. The other one has a good defense. So, I mean, Buffalo has a pretty good secondary. So I don't really want to touch the digs train or, you know, Nico Collins. It's a tough one. So I know I think Buffalo might have give up the least amount of receiving yards to the wide receiver position. So that's not something I want to look at. Maybe you look at, like, because we saw it happen to the rush defense. So maybe you bet the mix and run it rushing over when that line opens up, like, yeah, yeah, that's been, that's been an area that the bills have really struggled. All right. Let's move into the next game. Colton Jags. This is one I'm not really going to be all that interested in watching. Don't know yet if it's Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco. The jags right now are three point favorites at home. Total sits at 46. You can find two and a half on a juiced up on Sandool. This is one where I'm having a tough time. I know that the Colts defense is banged up, but I've watched the jags and I don't know who they have any business way, like, weighing points to, like, I just don't get it, like, they look like trash, Doug Peterson, I mean, he turned into a pumpkin, like he brought, he brought the title to your, your Eagles there ever since then he's just looking for God had a coach football. So I, I haven't bet it. I know some like sharp people are on the jags. I just, I, this might be a stayaway game for me because I don't understand why it's any more than like one and a half points or even a pick them. Like I don't think the jags of any business being a favorite, I guess a two and two Colts team who I don't care who the quarterback is. If it's Anthony Richardson, he can do enough against man coverage to beat up on the jags. If it's Joe Flacko, we, if it's Joe Flacko, give me the Michael Pittman overs. I mean, I literally, I can't wait to talk about that. Yeah. Yeah. I teach you. Or Josh Downs or Josh Downs, I literally have like it has to be flacko, but the second I see that flacko starting Josh Downs, Michael Pittman are both getting overs from me 100%. He can actually run the offense and it's so crazy to say, I mean, he did the same thing with Cooper last year, right? Like he just resurrects these guys because it like, he's like seven foot tall. He doesn't move. So you know, he has to throw the ball, but it's just, I mean, he's making these receivers look like wide receivers. And I mean, I had a good indie take at the beginning of the year love and Anthony Richardson and stuff and I'm not having to rewind that one a little bit. He hasn't looked great at all. I mean, I know you were telling me about his accuracy and I was trying to pull up stats that it wasn't as bad as he thought and who it might be worse because I mean, it is ugly. You were trying to get me off of this guy and man, I think I better should have listened to you a little bit earlier. But yeah, I can't wait. The second I see a Josh Downs or a Michael Pittman, I don't care what the number is I'm taking over on both of them. And actually, I've been looking at Brian Thomas. Let's real quick. If it's flacko. Correct. Oh, 100% of it's like I won't touch it otherwise. Yeah, yeah. No, won't touch it. Otherwise at all of it's Anthony Richardson. It looks like it's trending that way. I mean, this is this is their guy, right? Why rush him back when slacko did just fine. And if it's a hip thing and this guy just he keeps running the ball the way he runs the ball. So it's not going to get better. So he's got a half a lingering injury, you know, seven or eight running plays later and you know, he's going to get lit up. But I can't wait to they haven't dropped a Brian Thomas play yet either. I know you like him. Yeah, I'm a big I'm a big Brian Thomas fan. I to this day cannot understand how last year's LSU team didn't have a competent defense. But Jayden Daniels, Malik neighbors and Brian Thomas, how do you not have at least a competent defense to get put you in position to go for a national title? I mean, that is what that we could look back in a few years like this is that was one of the best college offenses like based on current talent, but yeah, I love Brian Thomas. I think Christian Kirk, you know, it depends on what's going on with Evan Ingram. If he's back or not, if Ingram's still out, fire up Christian Kirk, if he's not, you just kind of let it go. Yeah. But yeah, I mean, close to a lot of eight most receiving yards and a second, both receptions. Brian Thomas had nine targets and back to that games. Love that he's averaging 69 yards over the four games. And there's no way his number is going to be any more than like 48, maybe 50, something like that. So I've been waiting to see when they drop those numbers, but I don't understand why they can't drop Jacksonville side doesn't matter who the quarterback is. I guess it does kind of matter on scoring and things like that. And I was frightened, and then Ingram as well, like that's going to change, that's going to change all the receiving lines for Kirk, Thomas, Gabe Davis, David Davis is even a thing. No, fair enough. So yeah, I'll be waiting to see, so I'll be interested to see when they drop those lines, but those are those are three plays that I'm looking to take for sure. Once the numbers I can see, as long as Brian Thomas is low fifties, I mean, even in the 40s would be nice, but but yeah, he's got 47 94 48 and 86 over his last four games. So yes, please. All right. Can we skip dolphins, Patriots? We sure can. All right. We can probably skip Raiders Broncos. I'm on the Broncos in this one. I actually put it in Discord when it was like one and a half. And now it's like one and a half minus one 10. Now it's two and a half minus one 15. I still like the two and a half. The Raiders, you know, not going to have Devontae Adams, Max Crosby is a maybe this Bronco's defense is so good, they are, they are going to cause Garter Mitchell a lot of problems. Maybe this is the game. He gets benched. Yeah. Give me more. You know, once I was on Garter Mitchell's passing under's last week, that came through. Maybe give it to me again, under 193 and a half on DK. I will, I will gladly take that, I have nothing else for this game. Yep. Hard pass. That's a good take. I like that Denver take. Never will be getting my money. All right. Cardinals 49ers. This is going to be another fun one. This is around a seven, seven and a half points spread. I like, I want to like the Cardinals getting the hook. You know, you have all of these 49er injuries once again, like just so many guys banged up, the CMC situation is so weird. But the Cardinals, they got, I mean, after the way that they got waxed by the commanders last week, I want to see like teams coming off of that big of a loss cover the spread at a high rate, but against the 49ers, I don't, I don't know if I can pull the trigger. I want to be on the Cardinals. I just don't know if I can do it. The total is a high one, 49 and a half. And with prop lines not really being out, I'm not sure what, if there's anything I like from that standpoint, yeah, that, oh man, that Arizona game killed me. So I was on Marvin Harrison last week against this dog shit, Washington secondary. And so Harrison has four targets, three catches and a touchdown on the first drive and then doesn't get a target until the third quarter. And then just so happens that on that same third quarter drive, when he gets his couple more targets is they score their other seven points. They only scored 14 points and it was on the two drives that Marvin Harrison actually got a target. Are you guys kidding me? Like what are you doing? Get this guy in the ball. That drove me insane that he didn't cover in that spot. So I ended up losing a bet on that one, which drove me nuts. They have dropped a couple of the props. I was looking at, at Mason's rushing yards, but it's at 85 and a half. That is massive. I can't touch that. I know the Cardinals give up a ton of rushing yards, but I won't be touching that. But I will be waiting. I haven't dropped one Jennings number yet, but I can't wait for that because I'm going to take that over for sure. Arizona gives up the ninth most receiving yards. He's led the team in targets and receptions over the last two weeks. So it wasn't just the one week where everyone was hurt and I use, I don't know what's going on with Brandon, I use, but they have what Demo Samuel's number at 51 and a half. So if he's at 51 and a half, John Jennings has got to be somewhere, you know, in the 30s again, but like you can't put the genie back in the bottle. This kid is doing way too well. He had 88 yards last week, led the team, like I said, and in catches and targets. And obviously the 175 and a million touchdowns the week before. So yeah, give me. John Jennings. The second that one comes out. Yeah. I like that call. He's, uh, he's looked really damn good. I was on his, his over his last week, those two easily, you know, maybe James Connor, his rushing over. And they seem to be willing to ride him and 58 and a half, uh, not, not terrible. I don't know if I'll, I'll play for anything significant, but I think it might be worth a little sprinkle. If you like it. Yeah, they don't really, one sec, one sec, they don't really care about game strip in Arizona. They have this like kind of San Francisco style rushing attack with, with their offensive coordinator there. And like they just keep feeding James Connor, like he's not about to get injured because we all know he is at some point or another. But, uh, but yeah, I hadn't even looked at that, but that might be a good take actually. I like that. Let's move to another fun afternoon game Packers and Rams. I think this is going to be a pretty good one. Rams are three point dogs at home. It's trending toward potentially a three and a half. I'm seeing, you know, Rams plus three at minus one, oh two, minus one, oh five. So it looks like we could get the hook on the Rams. I'd be interested in that, you know, Sean McVay versus La Fleur, a couple of guys who have been, you know, coaching against each other for a long time, coached together for a while. Jordan Love looked pretty good to throw in the ball coming back last week. So I, I have some props I like in this one. I'll have to see where the numbers shake out, but for now I kind of like the passing crop overs for Stafford or for Jordan Love for sure and maybe Stafford. But I think, you know, love at two 55 and a half, I don't think that's, that's too much of an ask. You know, Christian Watson is going to be out, you know, is this Don Tavy and Wicks time? I picked him up in a fantasy league. I'm desperate for a win in. So I'm really hoping it is what do you have for this game? I've been looking at the running side of it actually. I like, I like Jacobs. It's set at 60, is that the great one? Yeah, 65 and a half, 65 and a half rushing yards. Now Rams are giving up the most rushing yards so they are running back position. And I think because last week, we're getting a bit of a discount on the number here because he only rushed nine times for 51 yards last week, but obviously they were down 28 to nothing. So that is a, obviously a recipe to not run the ball whatsoever. But like the Rams defense, they let, you know, swift go for 93 last week, Mason for 77, Connor, your boy for 122 and then Montgomery for 91. So I think Josh Jacobs at 65 and a half. I think it's going to be a competitive game that Rams defensive line is terrible. They can't stop the run. They literally are dead last against the run. Yeah. I like Josh Jacobs over his rushing props. Yeah, they haven't hung a Don Tavy and Wicks line yet. I want to see what that looks like as I may be, I may be on board for that one. Yeah. I like to call it Jacobs. I mean, that was just such a weird game last week. He'd been getting a ton of work. You know, maybe he'll do him well that he didn't, uh, didn't take so many hits last week and he'll come in a little bit fresher for this one, you know, bounce back spot for both of these teams. I want to let, I mean, the Kyron Williams, I can't do Kyron Williams because his, that number is just way too. Yeah, exactly. I think in the 80s, I won't touch. Yeah. I won't touch anything in the 80s. It's too much. 88 and a half like that for how well he projects, like that's, that's a big number. All right. Yeah. Let's move on. Giant Seahawks. You know, we got some good afternoon games. I think there's going to be fun ones. I think this could be included in that we saw Monday night, you know, these teams each played in, uh, each played in prime time last week, one of them on Thursday. So the giants with the rest advantage, what they are traveling cross country last. I checked Seahawks were six point favorites in this one that looks like it is still the case. You get six and a half on the giants on either DK or fan dual total on this one of 43 and a half. So just below that key number of 44, I think I grabbed the over at 42 and a half. I think this is going to be another with how banged up the Seahawks defenses and how bad the giant secondary is and how the Seahawks, you know, are just throwing the hell out of the ball. Geos looking good man. Yeah, man. He is. That was a tough environment to play in in Detroit and he, he did really well. So I think this is a high scoring game. I'm hoping Malik neighbors passes the concussion protocol. Yeah, I mean, with how far out, you know, with it being, with that happening on Thursday, I really, really hope that, uh, that added time does good to them. So that's, that's where I'm at. I'm on the over in this game. I just think the Seahawks, uh, that defense of theirs is just so, so beat up. Yeah. And I, uh, you know, I think that there is going to be points scored here. Yeah. I hope so. Cause I got DK Metcalf. I took him over 65 and a half receiving yards. I was big time on him on, uh, in the Detroit game, excuse me, uh, last, uh, in prime time on Monday there and, uh, and he didn't let me down. He's got three triple digit games back to back to back, uh, 129, 104 and 104, 65 and a half receiving yards. Like they are just absolutely like peppering him a ton. And who's he going through? Oh, uh, Deontae, uh, Deontae banks. So this is like their, uh, second year guy that's kind of doing all the shadow covering. And I mean, lamb just scorched him for 98, a Maric Cooper for 86. So like all the outside, like lead outside alphas get this guy lined up against him. Like you said, their secondary is not great. Seattle is banged up. So I do think the Giants can score. So they are going to have to throw, uh, yeah, give me DK Metcalf 65 and a half receiving yards. Yes, please. Yeah. I like it. He's, uh, I mean, this is another one of those games you could employ that same strategy. Like you're talking about, uh, against, like, where you have, you have, you have three clear cut. Like they don't, you know, they throw to Jake Bobo on occasion. They don't have a few targets, but for the most part, it's Metcalf. Those three and JSN. So you could, you kind of deploy that same strategy in what should be a higher scoring game against the Giants. Uh, yeah, I want the, the status of Malik neighbors, I do think matters a lot in this one. So I haven't, I'm, I'm sticking with my total bet. If he's out, I'm not going to love that number, uh, quite as much, but hell man, Seattle could get most of the way there on their own. Anything else for this one? No, what's, what's even worse is I had a Devin Singletary over, uh, receiving yards bet on that same game when, when he got hurt. So I don't know if you watch the game, but, uh, Singletary had 14 yards and I needed 15 and a half. And on that same play, Singletary's wide open in front of, uh, neighbors and it was a fork down play. They had to have it. And he's wide open. It could have caught it. It could be worse down right there with nobody on him. Instead they throw into neighbors. He catches it while it ends up popping out of him, but he lands on his head and gets a concussion. So it's like, Oh man. So not only could I have won that prop, I have neighbors in a bunch of fantasy. I'm like, it, it couldn't have been any worse. I could have won the prop and my, you know, one of my best receivers isn't out with a concussion. Instead, no, this guy's out with a concussion and I don't win a prop. So yeah, that one was tilted. Yep. That, that is real for sure. All right, we're going to wrap with the two primetime games on Sunday and Monday night. First up, the Cowboys heading into Pittsburgh to play the Steelers. Steelers one and a half point favorites at home in this one total is at 44. So decently high total, uh, I guess you can find two and a half. So DK has two and a half, a few different books out of the two and a half. So if you like the Steelers, go bet it on standalone one and a half. I think this is a Steelers spot. I think this is an under spot as well. I mean, the Cowboys, their running game is mediocre at best. They're going to be without Brandon Cooks. He hasn't been looking great. So maybe that's addition by subtraction. Maybe, you know, look for some more Jalen Tolbert, uh, props when those jump up. So I think he'll be seeing a few more opportunities as a result of Cooks being out, you know, maybe some more Jake Ferguson. So you know, I'm not seeing numbers up for really any of these guys, uh, outside of, you know, CD land doesn't even have, have prop lines up yet. So TBD on that one, I would say with Cooks being out, if if Tolbert is in and his prop, you know, prop line is in the mid twenties, I'd be looking at an over on that one. You know, Ferguson, if he's in like the mid thirties, I'd be looking at an over on that one as well. Yeah. I like that take. I don't want anything on that Dallas side. This Pittsburgh defense is really good. And like you just said, the running game is a mess. I don't like, I don't know what this offensive, like identity is they can't run the ball, but they're not real. I don't know. This is almost a stayaway. Like I was big on Pickens, George Pickens last week and he scorched for me. So that was a nice win last week, but you know, uh, yeah, this is a almost a stay away game. I'll have to deep dive into it. Obviously it's the night game. So I'll probably be looking at it a little deeper for the, for the Sunday night contest. But yeah, I mean, I don't like anything on the Dallas side against this Pittsburgh defense. And I know Dallas is a little banged up too, right? They're missing, uh, defensive studs. So you know, maybe, maybe on the other side, I might actually take, uh, um, God, who's the bloody quarterback? Justin Fields. Yeah. Fields on his rushing props in my mind. I know Dallas gives up a ton of rushing yards, uh, to the quarterback positions or maybe something like that. But I'll probably be on his passing under just because I think, I think they're going to be able to dominate this, like, I think they're just going to run the ball. You know, Micah Parsons is going to be out, uh, out for right now to Marcus Lawrence. That's where the IR. Yeah. They are down, you know, they're without defensive tackle Jordan Phillips. He's been out for a while now, like, there's just a lot of defense is so banged up, fields through the ball a ton last week, he's not going to need to do that this week. They're not going to be in comeback mode. The Steelers defense is going to be amped up at home. I would also, I mean, also going to keep an eye on the web. I mean, the weather, it's only October. So weather should be fine. But God forbid, it's like rainy and windy there going to be an even more, even stronger case for the under. So I feel like that total is just inflated. And because of how many points the Steelers scored last week, well, playing in Indy, it's going to be a lot different than playing at home. So I don't know, maybe, maybe looking at, uh, at this total, it opens, it's the totals actually moved up. So it opened on the 29th at like 41 and the over got hit. And now it's at 44. And I'm wondering if we've reached the top of the market and this is an opportunity to buy back because, you know, prime time, you know, maybe I'll wait, maybe we'll get more over money as we get closer to prime time on Sunday. All right. No, those are two very popular teams. Yeah. If the over, you know, if the total gets like 44 and a half, 45, then I'll probably take the under and look to buy back at that key number. So that's all I really have for this one. Anything else on your end negative, all right, saints and chiefs. This is another, another weird spot, man, yeah, total on this one, 43 and a half. So just below the key of 44, this is a game that opened at 42 and a half. So move back, you know, it's moved up a little bit. I, I think this is an under game as well. Like the Saints, it was really flooky that so many points were scored against them last week. Like Rashid Sheheed with that stupid punt fumble, you know, their defense has looked all right. Meanwhile, for the chiefs, they're not going to have Rashid rice. The checker was still out. Their offense is banged up. They have, you know, a rookie or a brand new guy starting at left tackle, like, and their car is not throwing the ball more than five yards downfield. Their offensive line is beat up, he's going to have Chris Jones down his neck all night. Like, yeah, this to me is another, I know people don't like betting Monday night unders because it's more fun to bed and over. This is one where I think you just don't even walk. You bet the under. You don't even watch the game and then you wake up Tuesday morning and you see more money in your account than when you went to bed. I think that's a great call out of all of these unders. I've heard you say as soon as you start the U word, I just stopped listening. But this one I actually think is, is clever. I mean, the Chiefs offense, like they scored 17 points, 20 points, like they're not scoring at all. Saints have a decent defense and the Chiefs have an amazing defense and against the Saints offense, I think they match up really well together. I can see a really low scoring game in this. Yeah, I, I'm going to keep my eye on the odd screen for this one. If it goes back down to 43, I'll probably grab it there, but I want to see if we can get a 44. If it goes to 44, it's an absolute hammer play on my end. Right. If it goes down to 43, I'll still take it, but I won't be as happy. Fair enough. Where is it? Oh, yeah. The under's juice. So yeah, it's probably going that way. We'll see. Yeah. I mean, it's still, I'm seeing it. It's close. Yeah. I'm seeing minus one 10 at bed MGM. It's a little juiced on DK and fan dual. Yeah. So once, once again, make sure you're shopping around, but let's finish up with some futures. I wanted us each to have a couple of futures and awards bets that we were liking. I can, I can lead this one off. It's the futures and awards markets are, are really interesting this time of year as you know, over and under reaction happens. Right. Like there's, there's a lot that you could be reacting to. I'm trying to pull up. I'm a simulator that I used earlier today and I ran a bunch of Sims and I want to see what that is showing me there because, you know, I think for the Super Bowl champion, I'm not really nothing there that I'm really feeling too confident about at the moment. I'm looking at, like, I think one's for teams to make the playoffs are good area to look at right now, you know, early in the off season, I mentioned that, that Bronco is one that has aged very well as they continue. Right. Yep. Absolutely. I think as we get to see these teams more and more and we can project out and look at schedules, there could be some opportunity for different teams to make the playoffs that maybe we didn't think was the case a few weeks ago, you know, I think there's still some meat on the bone when it comes to teams like the Steelers. I think they're going to make the playoffs and you can still get it at minus one oh five on Sandy light, I like that number, for instance, you know, we'll see what happens with the Cowboys. There's still some value on them at minus one tend to make the playoffs. I think they're going to do what they need to to make it and I think there's a little bit of questions with those defensive injuries, but, you know, I think that's one way to approach that one as far as division skill. That's the other I like to look at as well. Like I was feeling really good about my Seahawks one and this is where you can kind of trade in and out of these markets too, like I picked up a Seahawks future a few weeks ago at plus 300, they had, you know, a really good game where, you know, they went to three and oh and the 49ers went to one and two and after this last Detroit game, I cashed out of it and I was able to get like a 20% return for holding it for about two weeks. And so I think there's some opportunities here to almost like day trade. Some of these things like they make some longer term bets, but also some shorter term investments. I think I still like the Colts to win the South and you can still get a pretty good number on them. Yeah, plus 440 something like that. Yeah, because at the beginning of the year, I was big on the Colts, right? So I wanted Colts and Houston to go one, two was a nice one that I had. And that was at plus two, 10. I think after and real quick down, although yeah, yeah, but after this week, you know, I think the Colts can be like, I feel very, very confident the Colts can beat the jags. So you know, they win this week. The Texans haven't looked that great. They almost lost to the cult, like to the jags, they got destroyed by the Vikings. They reached out a win against, you know, Caleb and the Bears, like, yes, they're getting tanked all back, maybe they get mixed in back, but I think that the Texans are vulnerable. And at plus 440, I mean, the Titans aren't going to be there, like they, they're a disaster. The chance that ain't happening. So it already feels like it's a two horse race. And if I can get one of those teams at plus 440, sign me up. Absolutely. Yeah. What was the other one? Oh, like two weeks ago, we were kind of talking about the same thing. And I put a bet on Baltimore to make the playoffs at minus 130. And now they're minus 130 to win the division. So I did like that when they were Owen too. That was a nice, nice spot there. I mean, I knew their schedule was going to be tough this year, but just to make the playoffs. I mean, obviously they had a couple of wrinkles to start the season, but, but yeah, like like sitting on that one right now too. I think there's still like, I think there's still value on them right now at like nine it's one to 30. Like I think they're, they're just so much better, like the Steelers have gotten off to a good start. Yeah, it's a nice story. But come on. I don't think they have. Yeah. Yeah. I don't think they have the staying power. That's a great call. I'm going to bet that again right now. To make it that far. I think that the fact that like, you know, the Ravens are one game behind, like if they win this week and God forbid the Steelers lose at home, then all of a sudden Ravens are going to go like minus 250 to win the division. So I think there's a great call. There's still ways to ride that wave. Yeah, like the Colts plus 440 is probably my favorite division winner bet at this point. I just don't know, you know, that, that's really where I would, I would potentially be looking to buy. I don't, you could make a case for the, I got, I'm regretting not buying last week. I was looking at the commanders to win the division when before that Cardinals game, they're like plus 700. And now they're like, plus 240, I'm just kidding myself for not pulling the trigger on that one. And my Eagles aren't looking great. It just kind of shows that Jalen hurts, you know, without these weapons, he's not as good as everyone, you know, as imagining. I just think Siri, honey, like, yeah, the coaching has been a dog shit too. But still, the defense has been struggling. They just came out with like that, that fucking year's money line bet. I felt so confident going into it last week and it, I mean, it was over pretty quickly. Me too, brother. I took the bucks. I bet against my Eagles hard. Yeah. And I was like, there's no way. Are you kidding me? A team that already beat the shit out of them in the playoffs when they had full strength. And now they don't have anybody like, who the hell are they throwing it to? So yeah, you weren't fooling me again on that one. So I definitely took Tampa Bay. A couple of my futures are looking all right. That Derek Henry over his rushing yards is almost cashed four weeks in. Yeah. Yeah. That's looking pretty good. Yeah. And a couple of other ones that are looking all right, go ahead. Now for the awards market, there's one MVP bet I like right now and it's Jared Goff. You can still get him north of 20 to one. You know, what do we look for for MVP? It's the one seed in either conference and it's definitely going to be a quarterback. Let's just call it what it is. So the lions look so damn good, like the one seed is very attainable for them. Goff has, you know, he had a, he had a kind of a shaky start, but that last game he was dialed in, he's clearly got the weapons with Amunra and Jamison and LaPorda and Gibbs out of the backfield, even Tim Patrick had a nice catch. So, you know, I think if I were to bet on any of these guys right now for MVP, I don't, you know, I like my guy, Josh Allen, but not at plus 350. No, you just took him a couple of weeks ago, didn't you? I did not take him. No. 700 or something. I thought you saw. Yes. Yeah, it was 700. I didn't bet it. And then I look at some of the other guys, like sprout at plus 800. I don't think that they're going to get the one seed. Rock party at plus 1400, maybe, but I think that their schedule is pretty tough. And I think the lions will get the one seed. So at 20 to one, look at DK right now. Let me pull it up on Sandool, see if it's any different over there. They usually have some better numbers. Go ahead. I can't wait for the start of next season, so I can take the Chiefs to win their division again at minus 200. Like, you know, we were talking about like, are you kidding me? I kept going back and dipping again and dipping again. I'm like, there's, there's no way they're not winning the division. And I think they're minus 800 to win the division now. So like it probably cash over a decent chunk, but now I'll let that right. Yeah, I think, I think 20 to one on golf is the best number you're going to find. I, I like that bet. I do too. So the more you talk me into it, I like that a lot, actually. All right. I'm going to throw a little, a little sum sum on that here, because I think he's, he's live for that one. Like David, I love talking this stuff out with you, but he's got some sick takes. And they, well, they play so many other games in the dome. I think they play like only one or two outdoor games. And so he's going to have, you know, your concern is that he would have some tough outdoor games, not going to happen. So I think he's going to be there. My only concern is how much they love running the ball in Detroit. And he's not going to get enough passing opportunities. That's my big, that's my main worry with this. But at the same time, let's say it's like the lions and the Ravens who are the two, one seeds, like there's going to be voter fatigue on Lamar and if golf has like fairly comparable numbers, like I could see a voter fatigue situation to same with if it's like lions and chiefs, like, are they really going to go back to my homes and what are the odds that he really has the stats based on the way we have, yeah, the weapons you have available to him right now. For sure. Yeah. That's a great take, man. Yeah. Yeah. All right. All right. I'm going to do it. We're going to throw a few shackles on my buddy Jared golf here at 20. There you go. So I got some bucky Irving. I like that one. Yeah. Baltimore. I've got that one written down and we got some Jared golf at a 20 to one shot. Yes, please. Anything in the awards market that you like? No, no, I've kind of gone through it a little bit, but no, I don't dabble too much in them. I don't mind at the beginning of the year, but and but yeah, like you said, doing like win totals and you know, teams to make the playoffs and things like that, but I do more player props than anything. So nothing on that end, brother. All good, man. Okay. Well, that is going to wrap it up for tonight. Appreciate everyone who listened to Alex's podcast. Some check us out on Twitter sometime, but buddy, have a great weekend. Good luck with all your bets on, you know, on tomorrow night and Sunday and Monday. And I'll talk to you next week. Sounds good, brother. Peace out, buddy. Later, man. Bye. Bye. Bye. Yeah. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Bye. Thank you for watching. Have a great day. Have a great day. Have a great day.