The Auxiliary Gate - Kentucky's Horse Racing Discussion
The First Wire - Keeneland Selections for Saturday Oct 5th, 2024
They're at the post first wire. You're listening to the first wire, a Keeneland preview. And now here's your host, Trey Serber. Good evening again and welcome to the first wire podcast. Uh, I'm your host, Trey Serber. Uh, I have the pleasure this evening of being joined by C.C. Broadus of the auxiliary gate podcast. And today we'll be looking at Saturday, October 5th at Keeneland. Uh, specifically, they're all states, all stakes, pick five. Uh, double a bit into their turf pick three, especially on a Saturday big card. I think it'll have a, a big payout and then, uh, try to find a, uh, another single somewhere else that we can maybe make you a little bit of money. Uh, so C.C., how are you this evening? I'm doing excellent. Uh, always happy when Keeneland's here and I, uh, I think Keeneland is must see TV for me and I'll try to make it up there several times during this meeting. Now I got a question for you. Uh, Keeneland has got some interesting menu items, uh, like, uh, for me, I love the corn beef sandwich and I love the bread pudding. And they have a drink called the, the Keeneland Breeze. I think, I think that's the name of it, the Keeneland Breeze. I think I almost blacked out on, I'm drinking them one year. Got a question for you. What's your favorite, uh, what's your favorite, uh, uh, menu item at Keeneland? Well, that's a good question because typically I will eat before because I won't have enough money in the pocketbook to, uh, to buy anything besides maybe a beer or two, because I'll spend most of my money gambling. But I would have to say that the, yeah, the bread pudding, obviously, the staple of Keeneland, um, I'll give a shout out to their kitchen. I like to go to the kitchen before, uh, we go into the gate. And then I'll have a couple, I have a couple of their, their $10 large beers. So that would be, that's probably my menu choice. If, if I had to pick one, you like the, the track kitchen, not, uh, kind of out in the parking lot near the, near the stable area, right? Exactly. Right. Yeah. But go there and, uh, it had, have a, uh, cheeseburger or something out there. Yeah. That was the only place in the world. You can get a bacon and eggs in a daily ration form back in the day. Yes. Yeah. That's pretty cool. Love Keeneland. Oh, yeah, yeah, Keeneland is, uh, heaven for me. Yeah. When, when the weather, the weather's beautiful. Uh, there's honestly, I don't, I don't think there's any other place better to be than, than there. Well, you know what, even when the weather's not good, it keeps people away. So, uh, and, and then you can actually, uh, walk around the facility. So I like this. Yeah. Yes. All right. Well, let's, let's get started here. Uh, all states pick five starts in race six. Uh, it is the Woodford stakes, a five and a half, for a long turf sprint. Uh, like most races at Keeneland, I found this one to be fairly difficult as well. Uh, it looks like there's going to be a ton of speed in there. Uh, the one, the eighth and nine, uh, there may be a couple of other horses in there that are going to try to get into the front, which could help, obviously, the closers on the turf, I think it are okay. Uh, ultimately in the pick five, I'm going to spread out, but a few horses that won't have mentioned number four, uh, number five. And excuse me, number 10, I believe, Arzak, um, I think the four in the five, I think it'll be right in the middle and make a good run. And then Arzak will be, uh, coming from the behind the only thing that worried me a little about that is obviously IRAD is not here. And he's ridden a couple of times, uh, they're switching to Jaime Torres, uh, which obviously he's not IRAD, but he might be able to get the job done. How did you see this one? Yeah, I, I like Jaime Torres on the grass, uh, up until recently, I don't know how he's doing now, but he had a positive ROY and all grass starts this year. So that's pretty strong. So I, I, that does not bother me at all. I think he's an up and coming jockey, uh, jockey that we've had on the podcast before the auxiliary gate. And, uh, yeah, we think, uh, we think a lot of him. I think Arzak's got a shot to win here. Now the only concern is that he, he's a little bit off form for him. So you, I think you want to take a price on him. I don't think you want anything less than three to one, four to one. But, uh, yeah, Arzak has a big shot in here as do it with several others as well. Okay. Well, like I said, I'm, I'm going to spread in the pick five, uh, do, I don't want to be knocked out in the first race, uh, race number seven. I was trying to look it up. I think it may be, is that the Madison and my, am I looking at that right? Ray seven is the a third grade club of America. You're thinking same division, but it's, this is a different name. Okay. All right. Well, in this particular race, um, if Mike Smith comes into right, um, I think the four horse, if it looks like he's maybe low speed could be very dangerous. Uh, personally, I would like to see the three bright work win. Uh, I was a keel in the day that she flipped into paddock. And unfortunately I saw the, the owners and the trainer just basically in tears. And I, and I felt bad for him. So I would love to see them win on Saturday and be able to celebrate. Um, I think Zitelos and clearly unhinged, um, out of the same barn, uh, will be there as well, but I'm going to stick to the three and the four. How about yourself? Another tough race, uh, Philly, I'm interested in is on the outside. That's red carpet ready for Rusty Arnold. I think this may be her last start before she's, uh, whisked off to the sales ring. I think she's entered in the phasic tip and sale in November. So, uh, you know, I thought this Philly would be a Kentucky Oaks candidate way back when I thought she was, uh, that type of Philly, but she never did stretch out. And, uh, you know, she, she's had a couple starts on the grass with mixed results. I think, uh, returning to Keeneland, her home base and you get Tyler Gaffley on. I think, uh, at the price, she can fire her best shot and get part of this. So yeah, she, she's one of a few here that I would, I would consider. Okay. Well, race number eight, uh, the grade one first lady. Uh, this race obviously is very low to being a grade one. Uh, I ultimately landed on the eight chili flag. Uh, this horse tried longer, uh, and went against what I feel was a little bit tougher. Uh, mile an eighth at Saratoga, uh, now dropping back, uh, to a mile distance, uh, where she seems to be, uh, at her best. And another horse that I, I become a fan favorite of is the five walkathon, uh, for Ian Wilkes. Uh, she's won three in a row and I was fortunate enough to better it. Kentucky Downs and she won, uh, in a Gallup basically. Uh, I mean, they've got Gina Romatic as another one that caught my, can't bet the whole field. So probably be stuck to those three. What do you think? Gina Romatic is going to be my single here. And, uh, she's, uh, the winner of this race last year, uh, kind of an upset last year. Actually, she's 11 to one. She ran down the really highly regarded in Italian who was a really nice stablemate of her. So Gina Romatic is a Philly that, uh, she's in good form right now, just on third graph alone. She's probably one of the fastest, if not the fastest, uh, mayor in the field. So, uh, Gina Romatic for me from just off the pace, uh, a Philly I would keep on, of course, is the Irish raider, Tarawa for a Dermot weld and, and the Aga Khan. And, uh, this, uh, this Philly's by Shamar Doll. But, uh, she's, uh, if you watch her look at her past performances, her last three races, she carried, uh, 133, 132, and 130. So she, she drops eight pounds off of her last effort. And, uh, that's, what is that, a length and a half going a mile? I think, uh, I think she deserves a look. But Gina Romatica for me, if I were playing a backup ticket, I would probably use Tarawa as well. Okay, uh, moving on to race number nine, which is Clayborn Futurity, a mile and a sixteenth for two-year-old boys. This race, he got a pretty heavy favor than the one ferocious. He won hands down, uh, broke last and then cruised around everybody in his maiden when it's Saratoga. Everybody thought he was going to be the next best thing. And then he kind of, I don't know if he wandered in the stretch or got tired or something happened, but he basically was kind of running here and there in the hopeful and, uh, ended up losing by a head to, uh, Chance McPatrick, uh, who, if I believe, was a Chad Brownhorse? Yes. Okay, so that, that horse obviously is going to be, I don't think maybe one to five in this race. The other horse that I thought maybe had a chance based on, um, his, uh, his first race and then all the chatter that I heard before the race was East Avenue, uh, for Brendan Walsh. Those are the only two that I could see in this race, obviously. What do you about you? Yeah, I think ferocious through a shoe in the hopeful states. So, you know, I don't know if that was accurate information or not, but, uh, he did finish second. I think, uh, he actually showed some life late in the race when he was engaged by a Chancellor McPatrick. I think this horse has a, uh, high ceiling and he's trained by a guy that, uh, knows his way around Kentucky Derby. He, he, uh, Gustavo Delgado trained Mage to win the race in 2023. So yeah, ferocious, like you said, ferocious and East Avenue appear to be the ones for me. Uh, another one, uh, you might find interesting. Number four, handsome pants is a son of Daredevil. Daredevil sired the winner of the Kentucky Oaks and the Preetness in 2020. She dares the devil and Swiss Skydiver and he was, uh, Daredevil was sold to Turkey prior to that and he was standing stud in Turkey. They went over and bought him back and they brought him back to the U.S. And then I think this is his first U.S. crop since he was brought back from Turkey. And he sired number four, handsome pants for Kenny McPeek. And they always say a horse that can break his maiden in his, uh, in a two turn debut usually has some kind of quality. So I would not leave out number four, handsome pants, just my opinion. All right. Well, I'm, I'm making a note of that right now. So I'm okay with that as well. All right. Well, number, uh, race number 10, which is the last leg of the All States Pick Five is the gray one cool more on the grass at a mile. This race I was going to single, uh, Carl Speckler to me has, has been the best recently, uh, five or six at the distance. Um, like I said, I'm a single horse that I've, that I've always liked that I keep betting, but doesn't seem to ever get there if it runs third or fourth is the seven cash equity. Um, and the one reason I kind of like this horse today or on Saturday, uh, they're, they're taking off Julian and they're putting Mike Smith on. So maybe he can get a little bit more punch, uh, or have the horse up in the race a little bit better than off in the back and then trying to make one big move. Uh, being a grade one, probably everyone can win, but I'm going to try to single with Carl Speckler. I like the horses on the inside. I love the European import to these type of races. Number one mountain bear actually ran second. He got me a nice, exacta last year in the breeders cup of juvenile turf at 22 to one. It hasn't won since, but, uh, the Europeans always seem to wake up when they, they come here. And I, I feel like this horse was in it. It can take you downs in one of those two million dollar races a few weeks ago. And I think he had a scratch, but I can't say that for certain. I don't, maybe he didn't, maybe he didn't make the trip, but, uh, yeah. Number one mountain bear for eight, no Brian and the cool more game. Number two, kakuli is a son of a top-sire kingman. And, uh, for the, he comes over for judgment. Now this horse is a three-year-old and he's been competitive in some nice races over in Europe. Uh, you know, he ran fourth by neck in the hunger for steaks prior to that. He was in a, in a group one at doveville. And then prior to that, he, he ran hotem to a note. That's a very nice sprinter hotem at the royal asket. That's a horse, uh, kakuli. I'm interested in you get Frankie Datori for top European connections. Uh, horse that you don't necessarily like the morning line on him, but number three more than looks is three to one. And I think he's got a shot in his second start as a four-year-old for Sherry to vote. That a really good year. Uh, now he may be at the mercy of the pace is the only issue. So, uh, more than looks, maybe a super effective key if you, if you like a horse on top. Uh, maybe, maybe key this horse underneath second, third or fourth. So, uh, yeah, but that's, uh, and you know, Carl Spackler obviously has a shot as well. But, uh, you know, an interesting race. Uh, Spirit of St. Louis is another horse that's interesting. He's, he's only run in state-bred races in his last three. But, uh, you know, he was beaten last time at two to five. But Chad Brown sees fit to, uh, to try grade one with him. He's eight out of 11 light time. I think, uh, I think that horse, uh, is, uh, has some interest to me. But, uh, yeah, for me, it's all about the Europeans. So, okay, well, if I add those Europeans, I might have about a four or five hundred our tickets, so we'll have to, to work around that and see what happens. Uh, so basically just to share my pick five, like I said, I'm going to spread out in the first race. I'm going to use the one, four, five, six, eight, nine, and ten. Uh, then I'm going to use a three, four and a six. And then I'm going to use the four, five, eight, ten, eleven. And then the, uh, basically could play this two ways. You could single ferocious and then spread to the two euros and Carl Spackler. Or you could use the one, five East Avenue and ferocious and then single Carl Spackler. When I did the original, it was a hundred and five dollar ticket. Tried to keep a pretty reasonable, like I said, I could probably make it a four, five hundred dollar ticket real easy if I wanted to. Well, you want to split one? Two, fifty a piece, ooh, I'll have to see about that. Depends if we hit one on Friday. I don't, I'm working Saturday. I don't know if I want to give all my money away on Saturday to bet this. Yeah, they're fine. Okay. I mean, I'm easily swayed though. I'll say that much. All right. Well, I'll work on you. I'll work on it. Okay. All right. And then I've got a turf pick three kind of just using the same horses. To make a sixty three dollar ticket, the one, four, five, six, eight, nine, ten with four, five, eight, and then I'm going to single Carl Spackler. Like you said, you could play that a few different ways with you. You like the Europeans, so. Did you, did you come up with a turf pick three ticket or anything that you like? I'm probably not going to play it, but if I did play, I would, I would spread in the, I use several horses in the, the Woodford. I would single Gina Romanica in the first lady. Yeah. And like I said, I would use those two European horses in the, the cool more. That would be Mountain Barrie and Catulli. Okay. So, I mean, I see if I, if I use eight horses, I could go eight by one by two, at sixteen times three, that's forty eight dollars. Oh, that's manageable. Like I said, I'm, I'm easily swayed. So maybe we can, we can throw some money together. All right. And are there, are there any races besides the one we talked about that caught your eye? Yes, there are. There, I am going to be broke Saturday night. So I may do a go fund me. If you're interested in helping me recover some of my losses, let's, let's talk about some of these races early on. Race two is a really nice maiden special weight, one mile on the grass for two year olds. And there's going to be a heavy favor in there probably number one, state rights. And I will not deny that that horse is going to have a, it's going to take a lot of beating. And I think this horse is going to step forward here. And he's been off a couple of months for Sherry DeVoe, Louis Saez, had a really trouble start in his last, and he still managed to finish second. But there's a horse in here that I like that made box with him. And that's number four, battle drum from the Todd Pletcher bar. And this is a, a son of a top European sire named Sayuni. And we were talking about the Aga Khan earlier. This, this horse was campaigned by the Aga Khan, but repoli stable bought this horse. Well, he bred the horse, bought the horse. I didn't say in, in, in my past performances, but battle drum was, you know, he, he ran okay in his first R, but he was bent down to seven or two. And he had a decent trip. He just didn't accelerate late, but he did make a move between horses that I kind of like. And I think he'll probably be better for the effort in start number two. You get Johnny Velasquez. So, uh, Todd Pletcher always seems like he sends us, uh, his A horses down here for opening weekend at Keeneland. So I'm going to use, uh, battle drum. I'm going to box him with that one, state rights. So you know, maybe five to two over 10 to one or vice versa. So I like those two a whole lot. Okay. And the race number four is the other race. Uh, it's the second of three races I like outside of the, the ones we talked about. And that's number one freedom trail. This is allowing trace, uh, nonwinners of 18,000 twice other than maiden claiming, etc. This is nine furlongs on the grass. Uh, this horse ran on, I think this right, this was on Alabama stakes day. And I was watching, I remember watching this live on Fox and Maggie Wolf and Dale, who I respect immensely said this horse looked really good in the paddock. And you know, they were worried. This was a first start off a long way off. He hadn't run since November 18th of 23. And he peered to me like he didn't handle the turf. There was a lot of give in the grass that day. I think they'd had some rain. Horseman, offensive ninth. And suddenly, uh, John Terranova shifts him down here. He's got a couple of other stakes horses. They saw fit to put this one on the, on the van, so to speak. Freedom trail at 10 to one, you get Herardo Corralis, who's a very capable jockey. I like this horse a whole lot. He, to me, he is worth at the very least a win bet. Well, if you hit these races, you may not need me for the, the late pick five. Cause you've got some strong opinions on some really nice, uh, price horses. Uh, freedom trail, that's the second start off a lay off for him. I, I think this horse would be, be tough in here. I, I really do. I, I like this horse. So yeah, he will be featured a lot in some of my early plays. Uh, and then the last race, this is a tough race too. Number, race number 11 to main special weight. It's a list is the about seven furlongs. That's called the beard course. It's seven furlongs and 184 feet. And, uh, there's a horse in here named Eglise who has really broken my heart twice. A beaten second, a nose beating second ahead. I, I had him on top and both of those, the, the race at Ellis cost me the pick four. And I, I had him there at almost six to one, singled. And he was run down by a horse named my job. And that was kind of how things went this summer for me at Ellis. But Eglise comes back, but I, you know, he may not be a lock. But, uh, I will use him and I also use number seven. It's my life for Rusty Arnold. As a son of into mischief out of a, uh, really top notch mayor. Moracami, who I think has produced some nice horses. It's my life returned off a layoff to run a Kentucky dams. And I don't necessarily think she's bred for grass, but she did finish okay to finish fourth. And, uh, yeah, she's, uh, I think she'll be a whole lot better. And start number two off the layoff as she returns to her home base. And Rusty thought enough of this cult to put Tyler Gaffley on on. And Rusty's not the type of person to tug on Superman's cape. I think, uh, I think it's my life is live here. So if I could get something, something to the five and the seven in the last race, I'd be kind of happy. Absolutely. Well, there's, there's one horse that basically was a tip for us, uh, being, um, part of fat bald guy racing. I'll draw a name, drop him as well. Dan Cronin, uh, the on race number five, they liked the two 80 West when he was at Saratoga. Said he couldn't lose and he didn't lose. Uh, he comes back here and he's eight to one. Uh, if he runs anything like that, I don't think he gets beat again. So I don't know if eight to one will hold, but I might have to, uh, use that horse along with your freedom trail in the race before, uh, for, for a nice little double. All right. I like it. Anything else to get? Yeah. I'll, I'll, I'll, I'll put him in early. Like I said, I've got to work on Saturday. So I'll put him in early so that I don't get any trouble. And then I won't have, I won't lose all my money before the big race is start. Yeah. So I, I've got to go to a university Louisville football game. This is the first chance I've got to go see them this year. I've got season tickets and I missed the first three games. So I got to go to this, but I'll place my wagers as well. And hopefully I'll get free, I think they play at 12. So I'll get free for the, the back half of the card. So, uh, and then, uh, yeah, then I think I've got to go to a cookout too. We're going to Jason Cook's house for a, for a cookout. He's going to celebrate three techniques when in the, uh, in the, uh, the ACAC stakes last Saturday. So yeah, we, that should be a, should be a long day. Let's just put it that way. Well, make, make sure you got a driver because I'm sure you'll be celebrating too. Yeah, I'll be driving. So I don't celebrate too hard anymore. Oh, okay. Yeah. Well, you can, you can cash, cash all your tickets. And then, uh, we can get the, get the, get a keemlin on a Wednesday or Thursday next week. Right. Right on. All right. Well, hey, I appreciate you joining me again. And, uh, everyone, that's CC Broadus. You can follow him at the Auxiliary Gate podcast. Uh, this has been, uh, the first wire. And my name is Trey Server. And I appreciate you joining us. [Music]