The Jon Sanchez Show

10/04-Is the economic glass half empty or half full?

This morning, we received the September Non-Farm Payroll report and what a report it was. The government data stated 254,000 jobs were created when Wall Street’s expectation was only 150,000. The bad news is that bond yields surged, and this report will be the last one before the fed meets again. Is the economic glass half empty or half full? We’ll let you know

Broadcast on:: 04 Oct 2024
Audio Format:: other

Did you know a 2018 study showed half of prenatal vitamins tested had unacceptable levels of heavy metals? I'm Kat, mother of three and founder of virtual. When I was four months pregnant I couldn't find a prenatal I could trust so I created my own. Ours is matraceable third-party tested for heavy metals and recently earned the purity award from the clean label project. But don't just take my word for it. Get 25% off at virtual.com/podcast Good Friday afternoon to you. Welcome to the John Sanchez show one new stock 780k awaits It's a pleasure to be with you T G I F and a pleasure to be with my co-host Jason Gont Sanchez wealth management Happy Friday, Jay. Yeah, happy Friday happy jobs Friday It's nice to nice to see that lots of people are unemployed and the market is happy about that You're not happy What are you worried about this? I'm worried about a lot. I'm worried about really Yeah, how about the 11.9 million people that aren't counted as unemployed? That's semantics Okay, I'm just talking about the people were supposed to count and the search upon yields which will well that's explainable. Yep. Yep Which will well based upon the Fed futures contract is absolutely Little it has wiped out the probability of a half a percent cut. We're now 100 watch and say 100% we're down to zero as far as that probability and Haven't seen the latest numbers as far as the quarter percent probability cut But I'm gonna guess we're probably gonna see somewhere around 50 60% probability It's like 90 something actually is it isn't that I know okay? I didn't I didn't see today about all I saw was the 0% from 32.1% yesterday 53.3% a week ago to again down down to zero probability of a half a percent cut so for all those that were aggressively saying that maybe Mr. Powell had something on his mind and knew something that we didn't know Jay when Earlier this week when he you know hinted and basically said the feds going to give a quarter percent cut twice this year No more you know talking about a half a percent so You know am I happy with? Absolutely happy that you know we had two hundred and fifty four thousand people going back to work But as always as I like to do with these reports slice and dice peel the layers back and really get down to the details Which I think that's what you and I are gonna do this afternoon. Oh, yeah take a bite out of the onion Bring on the bring on the Tums afterwards You know the other thing I was quite surprised about is so we will be focusing on the nonform parallel numbers I'll tell you where the jobs were created the average hourly earnings all the data that you need to make informed investment decisions But also I was quite surprised to look at the weekly numbers and determined that they actually were not that great numbers Even after today's big surge in the market listen to this folks Russell 2000 for the week down Point five four percent S&P was up point two two percent Dao rose just nine tenths of a percent and the NASDAQ for the week was up one tenth of a percent That surprised me that surprised me. I you know until I looked at the data I thought you might go tell me that those numbers should have been Significantly more than that, but you know we did have a couple pretty good down days this week. Yeah, I mean that the concerns overseas I think Were the early weakness right we also had the you know very very quick strike That we thought you know that could have been another reason why the market was stronger today, too Right, we got the bit of the reaction on the back end I don't think it's the primary reason but the fact that that went quick and we don't have to worry about Christmas being canceled Because people wanted 60 percent wages and erases and got them. That's pretty awesome I can take three days off work and get a 60 percent raise like I'm out. I'll see you on Thursday But yeah, it's so I think that's part of some of the you know relief as well that That's not going to be an issue. Hopefully or I guess they kick the can down the road for three months On January on the automation issues and a few of the other things that they wanted they're like yeah Just give us our 66 percent Pay increase for the next five years and we'll table the rest of it. We'll worry about the rest of that. Yeah, exactly I was thinking I can our industry has never unionized I don't know Wouldn't that be crazy? I'm gonna keep my union views to myself It's it's it's interesting the you know the The whole setup, but I mean fortunately again. I'm glad it's not something we have to worry about We can get back to focusing on the election. All right So here's the million-dollar question folks we had a strong rally today is we're gonna go into details Well, let's hit the numbers right now. Usually I wait, but I want to I want to get these out because I got a question here So 341 gain on the dial so we finished 0.81 percent to a record close of 42 thousand three fifty two Now as I searched 219 1.22 2 finishing the day at 18 thousand one thirty seven And a 51 point gain or 0.90 on the s&p 500 finished at 57 51 So mr. Gaunt two issues. I want to bring up number one a was this a short cover rally today b Why would anybody let's go back to your hedge fund days where you're managing billions of dollars Would you I know you had mandates? You know you had to keep a certain percent in the market all the time certain percent and fixed income so on so forth But why in the world would anybody want to be long i'm talking that the big boys Why would they want to be long going into this weekend when we know the missiles from israel are going to be flying Imminently and over the weekend could be a great time to do it. Maybe next week. I know I say great Mark is being closed. So those are the those are the two questions Let's hit the short cover rally side of it because you always wonder on a on a big surge like this When again, I can turn this non-farm payroll number into negative news right as I said my showtees today This can be in half full or glass half empty type of scenario So let's go to that one first. I I view it more half full I I think you've got an economy all along that we've been talking about that is on firm footing You've got however you want to count it unemployment at 4.1 percent. You've got Still seeing hiring, you know health care. Some of the areas were interesting But you've got Coming into at least year end The markets are up 20 percent s&p wise and I believe 28 of 29 times that we were At these levels you continue to see the markets hire a year from now You've got the positive tailwinds of demographics, which we've talked about We've got all those sorts of things. They said outside of the geopolitical and now we don't unfortunately have the issue with the strikes, etc You know if if israel and iran became just another one of these times that we deal with this over and over and over and over and over again And yes, this time is different, but it's the same What's the other headwind right? Kamala or trump it doesn't matter. I've said this hundreds of times remember the mechanics around this market and I Was talking to a client today just re-explaining this is using our christmas analogy, right? Once you open the present the volatility or the unknown is over Regardless of who wins and yes Maybe someone will say it's stolen or this that and the other and we won't have the ballot count because georgias counting on their toes Or however they're going to do it, but once you do have the election out of the way There is a mechanical buy to the market and into january there is another mechanical buy into the market that you know If september was supposed to be the worst month of the year it was good and now we're already what eight seven days what is today fourth Yeah coming into monday the seventh of october and historically october 17th is the low point Into the strength expected into the back half of the year. I think there's people just front running it I don't think people are under invested. I definitely don't there may be some short covering But all of the leverage ratios all of the hedge fund exposures. I'd argue we're probably more on the Risky side that people are extra long right now Um, maybe not necessarily in tech but in other areas too, but you've got lots of caps You've got energy that's still under owned that can be chased much further I think there's just other places to go and people are doing it and china exactly was that short covering But even looking at a chart. It's so below what trend would be you could have you know another 25 From here before that thing even looks like it's truly Uh, you know breaking out. So I just you know, it's more of this rotation into other spots Um, we've we've reversed We have courses in this relationship. Yeah, I know it sucks Usually you're the the nervous nelly and I've told people the fact that I'm cautiously optimistic is you need to take that tone but it's been through that in the house and you become mr. Bull My friend last night asked me. Yeah, do you walk by his room and look at him? I try not to He's doing well. He's doing good. Okay Okay, so Very valid points very valid points. Absolutely um So Soft landing right this is the term folks that is in especially after today that is all over the financial websites, right? What is a soft landing, right? We use this term a lot. You're gonna hear it more and more after today's non-farm payroll numbers And basically, you know what if we look at what a what a true definition is of a soft landing It is a cyclical slowdown in economic growth that ends without a period of a recession So you get the slowdown you get the slowdown But yet you're bordering or teetering right on that verge of a recession Now remember a recession has multiple definitions the most common one of course is two consecutive quarters of GDP growth in the decline And then there's another mathematical one that we've talked about that we never find out about till six months eight months after a true recession has happened um So it's just as the saying says it's just a slowdown in the economy, but not quite enough of a slowdown to Drive us into a recession. So based upon today's economic data People everywhere like I said all the financial journals. There's market strategist economists saying This is a perfect scenario for a soft landing. Yeah now My argument is You're gonna have to have wait till we get back from this break because it is a good one It is a good one. It is a good one. I'm gonna interject quickly because mine's fast and then you get to be longer Along those lines remember the Fed is cutting Merely because they're too restrictive not because oh my gosh. We're in a recession. We need to stimulate this economy They're cutting because of inflation there would be cutting because of a COVID based supply chain inflationary impulse that they were late to cut But they're cutting because they're as restrictive as they've ever been so This time is different. It's uh, I know everyone says that but you know Whether three years from now two years from now the market's crashing and we're on to something else But near term the the reason that they're cutting the reason that they're doing what they're doing is not because They're afraid of this thing crashing into the ground. It's merely because of as I use They're taking their their hands off the neck of a marathon runner. They're not trying to you know, pick up someone who's laying on the ground But of course the argument is why would you be cutting when you have 254,000 jobs created. Yeah, they just don't want to create inflation coming down But they don't want to they don't want to be the cause for a recession. Do you see what i'm saying like The economy strictly will beam that restrictive relative to inflation Uh could create that problem. Well, okay. So here's what I told the boys Now we're starting now. We're gonna play for break. But here's what I told the boys last night on the show I said look remember one of the big components. What is it seven eight percent of the cpi calculation is energy prices or? Yeah, it is energy right so oil prices, etc So if oil continues to run up not for economic reasons, but because of of war related issues how and we get an uptick in cpi ppi pce Can the fed really say we're gonna cut rates a quarter percent Yeah, I I don't think that energy Uh is as big of a deal in their decision-making as other parts homeowners Rent those types of things. I don't think we know what I mean like that is an exogenous event Right to say oh my gosh. We're not gonna cut rates because oil spiked 20 bucks because these guys are being bozos Right like if it was because of demand and people just out there drinking gas and you know buying Three gallon to the mile cars because who cares because I have so much money Yes, but I think this potentially could be more exogenous and you know could fix itself If they could calm down. It's not supply per se All right Man, I'm having a hard time arguing this is funny. It is fun. I know I like it. It's a good woody. Good freaky Friday, right freaky Friday That's right. That's right. All right. Let's see if it's freaky Friday on the highways Nobody better to tell us about that thing chorist and snow in the right now traffic center. How are you my dear? True Welcome back to the john sanchez show on new stock 780k which with Jason got happy friday to all of you Again a strong way to go into the weekend with a very good finish on the market 341 gain on the dial 0.81 percent again 42 352 a record close as I finish with a 219 increase 1.22 S&P up 51 or 0.90 Well edged up a little bit probably one of the more quieter days of the week as we did see some big moves and oil prices this week We finished up 9/10 of a percent to 7440 a barrel gold lost $10 and 40 cents 6780 and Jason again here's one of the negatives of this strong jobs report as we touched on the bond market So here's where we set folks 13 basis point increase on the 10 year treasury knocking on the door of 4 percent We finished at a yield of 3.98 percent for the week a 23 basis point So almost a quarter percent increase in five days. That is a huge move Yeah, I think the I think the 10 year has a tough time getting through four on the upside Just looking at charts, etc. Let's miss this flight. Yeah, uh potentially. Yeah, no for sure Um, but it is it's you know, they backed out 25 basis points of cuts, right? I mean, that's essentially what occurred the market thought we were going to get 75 to 100 basis points into the end of the year Fed said 50 and you know, they basically yanked 25 basis points out of the market and today was that you know yesterday I think weren't rates up 10 bips or something yesterday too. Yeah. Yeah, and I want to think Correct myself when I'm saying they're sorry to interrupt you But what I mean if missiles don't fly is what I meant to say because if they don't fly then yes That things will continue bond money will come out of the bond market yields But if missiles start to fly like we experienced earlier this week when uh when those missiles did launch We again, we saw a huge flight to call it I mean they bought the bonds which again has the negative impact on yields. So Small clarifying. Yeah, and there's you know, you look at the dollar Uh, it has bounced off pretty decent support. I mean look at the yen. What's it? 148 or something. I mean, it's not a big move negatively for the yen, which I guess is good for the market now. We want the yen to implode again, um, and you know, so some of those mechanical sort of technical factors I think are playing into interest rates as well But I think we've you know probably sit around this high 390 to maybe 40 something level Into you know, we got cpi right. Can you believe that next week cpi ppi like I feel like we just had it like four days ago. I know But so we've got that that's the next Catalyst right uh, absolutely, but I don't know that it really changes the fed mind one way or the other the the jobs number now as they Said austin ghouls be etc. You know the unemployment or employment Is their focus inflation no longer is At least first, you know on the front burner. It's more on the backside. So even a slightly higher cpi number isn't gonna probably change much right right exactly well speaking of uh upcoming events Let's go back to the fed meeting and and again. This is gonna be interesting folks I want you to kind of mentally put some dates in your mind as you begin to position your portfolios So as we all know the presidential election will occur on november the fifth November the sixth and seventh is the fed meeting right so we're day right after of course We'll have the decision at 11 a.m. Our time on november the the seventh so You know the fed don't know if they just happen to you know schedule it that way jay So they couldn't say oh, yeah, we you know had a fed decision a day before the election and influenced the election So I thought that was kind of interesting, but yeah, so two days afterwards they'll have that but guess what? We have one more non-farm payroll number. I was looking at the calendar one more non-farm payroll number right before the election And that'll be on november the first Many are saying of course that this strong report that we received today will of course be a huge beneficiary Huge benefit to Kamala Harris not so much to trump and so again one more report to go Like I said before the election, so we'll see if that you know has any last-minute decision making Issues with voters if number stronger if the numbers significantly weak so thought those would be some interesting dates to keep in mind I completely agree. I just did the data points, you know, unfortunately This market is much more macro data focus then and we'll get earnings probably starting fairly soon too Right, that's gonna be the next thing that the market latches on to to your point if if earnings aren't as good I would say that's a bar that may be higher than people expect That if earnings aren't as good as hoped that could be a headwind for the market As we run into the election as well. Yes, that's right. That's exactly right All right when we come back we've been talking a lot about this non-farm payroll number that came out this morning came in much harder than expected 254,000 jobs expectation was about 150,000 again We were kind of having a fun debate there in the last segment, you know good news bad news again Just depends upon how you're looking at things But now let's get down to the details when we come back We'll delve into the BLS report and tell you where the jobs are created where they were lost average hourly earnings and everything You know about the health of the consumer when it comes to their job, but first Let's turn it over to Greg Neff. He's got news traffic and weather. Hey Greg Welcome back to the John Sanchez showing new stock 780k awaits with my dear friend named partner mr Jason gun of Sanchez wealth management 341 gain on the down Nasdaq higher by 219 s&p at 51 should have mentioned that Russell 2000 Jan and one of your favorites one and a half percent gain today Now let's hit the the weekly numbers once again That was somewhat of a lackluster week because we did have a lot of volatility just a 0.54 percent decline on the Russell 2000 for the week s&p at 0.22 dow rose 9/10 of a percent as Nasdaq up 1/10 of a percent Jason mentioned earlier the s&p let's go through the year-to-date numbers As we wrapped up the week Nasdaq up 20.8 percent year-to-date s&p is up 20.6 The Dow a 12.4 percent rise for the year and the Russell 2000 speaking of which a 9.2 percent increase All right my friend anything else you want to mention about today's market activity this weeks before we get into the BLS non-farm payroll numbers now let's talk uh let's talk non-farm payroll all right let's do it now oh i did there's one thing i did want to mention uh you're mentioning about earnings just looked it up on the calendar i again can't believe it next Friday's official week off of uh earnings jesus the it's awesome oh you got to be kidding me all right my favorite maybe things will be a little bit quiet for you know leading up to it but boy oh boy that's gonna be here and then here we go then we got the election and so and before we know we're gonna blink and it's gonna be christmas and the year is gonna be over so yes oh you need to listen to the show every day because there's so much going on all right let's get down to the numbers once again non-farm payroll numbers increasing well above Wall Street's expectation 254,000 jobs created in September unemployment rate dropped from 4.2 down to 4.1 and we had some pretty good jobs growth in areas that well some will argue are good for the economy definitely good for the people that got the jobs but not real high paying sustainable jobs i.e. food service and drinking places or one of the big job creators is all covered here in just a moment now some may be wondering about hurricane francing okay i know i forgot about that till i started going through the report remember that made landfall in southern Louisiana back on September the 11th during the uh reference period meaning where they're calculating the data and the number of participants etc looking for work or not looking for work um uh the report suggests that hurricane francing really had no discernible effects whatsoever on the national payroll report for those that may be wondering so want to get that out of the way all right now as i mentioned at the beginning of the show and i want you to kind of keep these numbers in mind as i go through them and Jason chimes in on them um even though again this number looked really good i always like to remind everybody there's still a whole bunch of people for whatever reason personal reasons or they actually can't find a job which seems hard to do um there's a whole bunch of people like to the tune of uh oh let's call it 11.9 million that are not counted as unemployed so keep that in mind as i said now the numbers that are counted so far how about this number of unemployed people sitting at 6.8 million little change in the month of September uh Jason this is one negative on to get your opinion on these uh this number again this um uh 6.8 million that measure is higher than where it was a year earlier we had 6.3 million unemployed a year ago and an unemployment which was to my surprise because i was thinking oh boy we're bumping right along the low unemployment rate but a year ago unemployment was at 3.8 and now we're at 4.1 yeah and remember average unemployment i think 4.7 um so uh even though unemployment has risen it was because we were at like darn near generational lows with you know low three percent and back to your you know what you'd mentioned earlier part of that is how things were counted who wasn't trying and so on and so forth but um you know uh even at 4.1 4.2 even though we have moved up from i think the low is 3.4 got in my head um uh we're still below trend so there's there could be room to go on the upside um that uh even getting back to normal levels but it is it's uh it's pretty amazing to see such a move and we talked about before a 1% move in unemployment has been followed by a recession 100% of the time point using you know could it be different this time and we still haven't had that 1% it got to i think 90 basis yes 0.9 percent uh but it's never got to 1% so knock down the door all right let's talk some demographics here as far as the uh adult men 3.7 percent are unemployed uh that decreased in the month of September the jobless rate for adult women stands at 3.6 percent teenagers 14.3 whites 3.6 blacks 5.7 Asians 4.1 and Hispanics 5.1 all those again little changed over the month the number of people jobless for uh five weeks or less than five weeks i should say decreasing by 322 000 to 2.1 million in September the number of long-term unemployed those are classified as people that have been jobless for 27 weeks or more little changed uh for the month instead at 1.6 million that measure also is up from 1.3 million a year ago so again more people getting discouraged going back to work or maybe there's a big you know demographic is uh Jason always eludes to as far as the demographic shift and we got a lot of baby when we were retiring who knows what it is but you know again up one point from 1.3 to 1.6 long-term unemployed the long-term accounted by the way for 23.7 percent of all unemployed people labor force participation rate 62.7 third consecutive month it sat at this number the employment population ratio little change at 60.2 both of those measures little change over the year the number of people employed part-time for economic reasons changed a little bit at 4.6 million that's up from 4.1 million a year earlier these individuals would have preferred full-time employment but we're working part-time because the hours have been reduced or they were unable to find full-time work number of people not in the labor force who currently want a job 5.7 million at change little in september these individuals will were not counted as unemployed because they were not actively looking for work during the four weeks preceding the survey or were unavailable to take a job among those not in the labor force who wanted a job the number of people marginally attached as we call it increased by 204 000 to 1.6 million in september these individuals said hey we want to work and we're able for work and we look for a job sometime in the prior 12 months but had not looked for work in the previous four weeks so therefore they're not counted in the survey and they're called discouraged workers let's see now let's go on to let's go on to specific areas always like this part of the report so where did we have some some big gains well the trend continued to increase in food services and drinking places health care government social assistance and construction let's get down to the numbers food service and drinking establishments their job increased jobs increased by 69 000 in september well above the monthly average of just 14 000 over the prior 12 months i'm sitting there scratching my head on that one i've been giving a lot of thought to that Jason let's get your opinion on it only thing i'm thinking it but i i don't know i just don't think this is right well yeah employers starting to to gear up a little bit for the holiday season where we always see a big spike in that but yeah we're only early october i can't imagine if the demand's not there that they'd be hiring that many people so yeah i'm not sure why we saw that big spike there i'm really not yeah it is it's interesting i can't i can't think of a reason either okay all right very good let's go on to health care which has this been a uh you know a rock uh in good times and bad times they just continue to add jobs health care workers added 45 our health care industry added 45 000 health care workers in september but that was below the monthly average of 57 000 over the the month the employment rose in health care services by 13 000 hospitals added 12 000 nursing and residential care facilities gained 9 000 the government continued it's upward turn in september they added 31 000 jobs the government had an average monthly gain of 45 000 jobs over the prior 12 months over the month employment continued to turn up in local government which gained 16 000 jobs and state government added 13 000 jobs don't like seeing this one increase social assistance a crease seen by 27 000 primarily an individual and family services which gained 21 000 over the prior 12 months social assistance had added an average of 21 000 jobs per month this one also shocked me a little bit simply because again we're coming into the winter season construction construction employment continued to trend up in september by adding 25 000 jobs similar to the average month again over the previous 12 months which was 19 000 over the month non-residential specialty trade contractors i.e. the subs added 17 000 of the 25 000 jobs major industries such as mining, chlorine, oil and gas extraction, manufacturing, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation, warehousing, financial, so on so forth very little change there. Jason you like this report the average hourly earnings for all employees on private non-farm payrolls increasing by 13 cents that's a four tenths of a percent increase bringing that number 235.36 an hour over the past 12 months average hourly earnings have increased by 4 percent in september the average hourly earnings of the private sector production and non-supervisory employees increasing by 8 cents to 30.33 pretty hefty wage increases if you look at it from that standpoint yeah i did i think they also revised maybe the last month down as well so it it uh i believe every tick higher in that number equates to 150 000 jobs in terms of productivity too in terms of hourly you know earnings and an hourly sort of labor in general that uh even at four tenths it's not horrible if it gets higher then we start to worry again about that sort of wage price spiral that the fed's always afraid of but like we said until you hear them start worrying about it i don't think it makes sense to worry about it right the uh you know maybe maybe it's more think-speaking we're not going to talk about it so you don't think about it anymore but i think for now it's keeping jobs and keeping jobs strength and that's part of why i think the market rallied as much as it did today just because it was uh as goldy locks as it could have been right right exactly all right so hit the average work week and then some revisions then we'll wrap this up and go to break average work week for all employees in the private non-farm side edging down by one tenth of an hour to 34.2 hours in manufacturing the average work week was unchanged at 40 hours run on the nose and over time edged down by one tenth of an hour to 2.9 hours um now to the revisions we always get revisions for the prior two months and here they are the change of total non-farm employment for july was revised up by 55,000 jobs from 89,000 to 144,000 and the change for august was revised up by 17,000 from the original 142,000 to now 159,000 so with these revisions employment in july and august combined is an additional 72,000 jobs higher than previously reported so i think you hit the term my friend i haven't used it i've been trying to keep my mouth shut but you brought it out so i'm gonna say it again or i'm gonna say it now goldilocks goldilocks report goldilocks report all right we come back we're gonna uh peer into the crystal ball take a look what we got come on our way next week so you can start positioning your portfolio over the weekend for that we'll hit some of the again potential earnings numbers economic reports etc as we wrap up the week on wall street speaking of wrapping it up wrap us up my dare in the right now traffic center christin snow welcome back to the john sanshe show on his talk 780k OHH with jason got once again a 341 gain on the doubt and that was like up to 19 s&p higher by 51 quite a week it was folks considering we had the middle east tensions and uh fed talk uh you know it was all thrown at us this week but again we've managed to eke out some decent gains for the week and you know like we've been talking about looks like this economy is heading for a soft landing at least that's what most economists think all right my friend let's wrap things up by appearing into the crystal ball looking forward to next week you handle the economic side i'll handle the earnings side done that way yeah i mean monday tuesday not a whole heck of a lot going on wednesday we will get the mba mortgage applications crude oil inventories i think those are going to be interesting given the moves that we've had in oil recently and we'll get fed minutes from the september meeting uh that give a little bit of color as to where their thoughts are as far as rate hikes clearly our cuts sorry creature habit um but uh Jerome Powell already you know sort of tipping his hand saying that uh if everything continues as planned we're looking at another two cuts of 25 basis points each jobless claims and consumer price index cpi on thursday looking for a one-tenth increase on headline two-tenths increase on core and on friday we'll get ppi that looks exactly the same for a two-tenth increase on core and then michigan consumer sentiment on friday it's still a preliminary number but you get some inflationary details out of there so it's really going to be thursday and friday as far as any real market moving data and adding to the calendar on friday of course as jason just mentioned now we got to get over to the new earning season that's right we're going to get our q3 earning season officially kicking off it always starts with a major financials we're going to have black rock b and y melon fastenel jp morgan chase and wills fargo obviously fastenel and not a financial but the other four are um just a i was just kind of looking at these during the break jason just trying to get a consensus again haven't heard a lot about uh um you know really any any major company coming out and giving earnings warnings or anything like that so want to kind of see yeah where we're we're looking at this point let's take black rock for example the consensus is they're going to report ten dollars and twenty-eight cents a share a year ago ten dollars and ninety-one cents so there's a little negative there be in mind melon who by the way disclosure they are our custodian consensus is a dollar forty uh year ago they made a made a dollar twenty-seven jp morgan this is going to be an interesting one they can move this market one way or the other uh they're only looking to make four dollars a share jason a year ago they made four dollars and thirty-three cents so let's hope the analysts are wrong there and then wills fargo also a pull back there uh year ago they made a buck thirty-nine uh estimates are a dollar twenty-eight at this point so doesn't look like uh they're looking for anything great with these financials uh you know as we kick off the earning season and always we always like to remind everybody don't judge the success or failure of the earning season based upon the financials they can operate as an island of their own yeah they definitely can and they have some seasonality they're in numbers too i think jp morgan morgan stanley some of those guys may you know if ipos do pick up as expected into twenty twenty five as interest rates are lower you could see some of those names uh you know certainly do better jp morgan's been under performing over the last couple weeks but it's been a pretty darn good stock for the year to see where jaybie diamond came out today and said um don't know why trump said that uh you know we endorsed him but we didn't you want to make that really clear going into the weekend so i don't know where that came from but uh yeah somehow trump said that uh who knows all right my friend you have a great weekend and seeing for all of you thank you for letting us be a part of your life and thanks for those of you that joined our webinar this week we'll have another one next one god bless every weekend this program was sponsored by sanchez wealth management the material in this program was intended as general information only and should not be taken as specific investment tax or legal advice none of the information on this broadcast was intended to be a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security further information is available by contacting john at sanchez wealth management dot com or seven seven five eight hundred one eight oh one john sanchez offered securities and advisory services through independent financial group llc a registered broker dealer and investment advisor member finra sipc securities offered only in states john sanchez is registered in sanchez wealth management llc and independent financial group llc are unaffiliated entities when you need mealtime inspiration it's worth shopping king supers for thousands of appetizing ingredients that inspire countless mouthwatering meals and no matter what 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