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Dynasty Fantasy Football - Under The Helmet

Will the Colts Get Well Without Jonathan Taylor? Keon Coleman's Breakout Game? Can Miami's Speed be Great Again? The Critical Fantasy Question for Every NFL Team, Week 5

Chad Parsons outlines the key fantasy question for every NFL team in advance of their Week 5 game.

Broadcast on:
04 Oct 2024
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Make sure, again, if you're a big underdog, you're a safe favorite at this point, that may influence your lineup decisions as well in a key week five. Let's get to the big questions for these teams, and also a reminder, whether it's Thursday night, the Sunday main show, or Monday night, whether it's a single or double header that you can find film notes where I break down every play of every game to steal it down to the dynasty information you need to know. Let's start off. We got Jets and the Vikings for the Jets. Can Garrett Wilson get on track? He's yet to score more than 14 points in a game this season. He's wide receiver 44 in points per game. Life has not been any better with Aaron Rogers, compared to his first two seasons. A lot of folks were saying, well, just wait for Aaron Rogers to be back in 2024. Life is going to be so great for Garrett Wilson. It has not been the narrator would say. It's a neutral wide receiver matchup up here against Minnesota. The target matchup is actually tied in, and Tyler Conklin has 20 points total over the last couple of games. I wouldn't be surprised, but man, Garrett Wilson, the former top four, top five dynasty valuation wide receiver. I never had him there, but plenty in the marketplace did in the off season, and he has not lived up to expectations. At some point, Tick Pock, he has to start producing more like an elite asset that he was viewed as. On the flip side, we have the Vikings. This is another Sam Darnold litmus test game. The Jets are an avoid matchup for quarterbacks. They've allowed only two touchdowns all season, and they're averaging only 150 passing yards per game against them. Sam Darnold has had a laundry list of key matchups. Everyone's waiting for him to implode. He's had a set a couple of Sam Darnold moments that haven't quite turned into over turnovers, but obviously this situation is ideal. He got Jordan Addison back. I do later this season to get TJ Hawkins in back, but again, Jets are an avoid matchup for the surprising Sam Darnold, and we have such a high standard that quarterbacks can have down games, but you know what? If you're coming from the ether like Sam Darnold, you get a little less slack to really have that down game before people start murmuring about your profile and about what you haven't done in your career. Dolphins and Patriots. Not going to be the most watched game. I'll just say that. Dolphins can Miami speed be great again. Skyler Thompson, Tyler Huntley, have torpedoed this offense without two attack in my lower. How about zero big time throws, five turnover really plays combined between Thompson and Huntley on just 68 dropbacks. The Patriots have faced the gauntlet of of quality quarterback so far. Burrow, Geno Smith, Aaron Rogers, Brock Purdy, and they generally held up only four touchdowns total. They have allowed to that gauntlet, like I mentioned, of quality opponents. So I would not be surprised this is an ugly rock throwing game. I would not be surprised if the Patriots won, but Odell Beckham is trending towards being back, and they got Rahim Mostert. They are healthy or healthier than they have been in quite some time here at the skill positions outside of their trigger man quarterback. So again, can they scheme it up? Can they get enough quarterback play here so that we feel comfortable starting the wide receivers that we feel comfortable starting to dive on a chain? So a chain is really the one I have the most confidence in. I think Tyree Kill no matter what you have to start him. But Jalen Waddle is that one where you just say, you know, probably breaking ties against him, and I'm one of the biggest Geno Waddle profile fans in general. But in general, we're sticking up in this offense until Tua is back. For the Patriots, can we trust Ramondre Stevenson again? It's a golden matchup against the toothless Miami Dolphins. It's one of the best running back matchups on the board. Miami is tough against the pass. That's not really a worry here for the New England Patriots as, you know, they want to grind the ball, play defense, just avoid turnovers, plant the ball a ton if necessary, and get out of there with a grimy win. That's what they did in week one. Stevenson is coming off the two worst games of his season, only 10 points total, and he has two fumbles lost. So this is a real rebound effort. And again, it's new. Don't start Stevenson here with buys and injuries going on all around him. This matchup, then I really struggle to think, when will you have confidence to start Stevenson coming up? Because this is the game. This is the signal Jerry, and this is Ramondre Stevenson in your lineup. We have Ravens and Bengals, one of the pinnacle matchups of the week for the Bengals. Will the game script flip on Baltimore? We know that they will throw fewer than 20 times if they enjoy a lead, but the Bengals can score. Mark Andrews is in a tough spot for a breakout with minus 3.2 points adjusted for strength of schedule this week with the Bengals. Tough match up there. Andrews is tied in 41 and could be yet another big buying opportunity after this week. For the Bengals, will Eric all continue to be one of the underrated rookie stories? Amidst Jane Daniels and the myriad of rookie wide receiver success throughout the opening month, Eric all has had four receptions in each of the past three games as a day three rookie tight end. Plus, there's an elite match up here with the Ravens. Expect classing success for the Bengals, especially with tight end. That's why I'm holding out some hope that we get Mark Andrews involved, and just generally Baltimore is not able to play their game, and they have to open up the offense a little bit more. The Bengals have been one of those strong offensive output teams, especially since week one, and that dud they had against New England. So, again, Eric all has been involved, and Chief Higgins is back in the lineup. All positive vibes for Bengals coming into this pivotal match up. Bed Online is the world's most trusted betting platform and your number one source for everything football. Bed Online has every stat, every match up, and even live odds and spreads to bed on during the games. Think you know your stuff? Get in for our $200,000 mega contest and pick five games against the spread every week for your chance to win prizes and a share of $200,000. When the game's over head on over to our online casino and get in on a game of Blackjack or Ochre or Unwind with one of our over 150 slot games. Head to the website today to get in on the action. Bed Online, the game starts here. Holtz and Jaguars for the Colts. Will this be a get well game without their get well pieces? Anthony Richardson is questionable going into the week, but not overly optimistic when you see what his practice participation has gingerly been this week. Jonathan Taylor is out. Jacksonville is an elite match up for quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and this is, again, likely without Richardson and for sure without Jonathan Taylor. So, Joe Flacco, this is an ideal streaming spot for him, and Trey Sermon, step right up, has a streaming delight and such a monster opportunity for Trey Sermon to put quality on tape. What I would say is Tyler Goodson is a pickup that you need to have on speed dial here that, you know, Sermon has not been one to see an ample playing time, and if you were to go down, there could be a window in week six where we see Tyler Goodson play and have a streaming star at himself. On flipside for Jacksonville, this has to be an ideal spot for Trevor Lawrence to have his best game of the season. QB 27, he has four total touchdowns over the opening month, and only one game more than 180 passing yards, and this matchup is an ideal one, and so he has to take advantage otherwise his, his middling profile that keeps it roading after that massive contract in the off season is going to come to a head. Cleveland and Washington for the Browns, will Amari Cooper smash this target matchup? Cooper has been quiet for three of the four games, including called back big plays, missed touchdown opportunities. However, he's at eight plus targets in each game, and this is an ideal Washington matchup. They've been shredded by Malik neighbors, and Jamar Chase this season, and they've allowed, and they allowed four touchdowns to Tampa Bay wide receivers in week one. On the flip side, Washington, Zach Hertz is a clarity start. Cleveland is suspect against tight ends. They gave up 65 yards to Britain strange, and had a drop and a chunk reception called back. Otherwise, Brock Bowers would have posted a strong game against him last week. Zach Hertz is definitely due for a touchdown as well with his volume so far this season yet to find the end zone, and he's yet to have more than five targets. This is an ideal spot for Zach Hertz to have his best game of the season. Carolina and Chicago for Carolina, Shuba Hubbard's Andy Dalton infused hot streak is to continue. I'm Ron Burgundy because they have to be formed into question like Jeopardy. Chicago is a tough matchup against quarterback and wide receiver, but a good matchup for running backs. Hubbard has 50 points over the past two weeks on 48 touches. So central element here, and he's taking full advantage with this more functioning offense with Andy Dalton. The Bears, Kayla Williams breakout game. This has got to be it. Carolina has allowed two plus touchdowns in three or four games. The lone miss was the Raiders clunky offense in passing game. Kayla Williams on the season, four big time throws, six turnover worthy plays, but a four to one ratio the last two games. Now, the reason for concern here is pressure to sack is a balmy 30 percent on Kayla Williams. So still struggling in the pocket dealing with pressure. And again, this is a spot where it needs to be rectified for his lackluster career month start so far. Bills and Texans for the bills. Key on Coleman breakout game. There are plus 3.0 points per game in a justice string that's scheduled for the Houston Texans for opposing wide receivers. So little Shakir is out. And so Key on Coleman, only 11 targets in four games. Houston has allowed six wide receivers to hit 50 plus yards this season. This is aligning well for Key on Coleman this week. Houston is Nikko Collins matchup proof. It's an avoid matchup with Buffalo minus 6.6 adjusted strength of schedule points. Only one wide receiver and else Christian Kirk logged 50 plus yards against Buffalo this season. One total touchdown allowed. And yet we flipped that where that's the Nikko Collins 12 plus points in every game. He said three of four games with 110 plus yards. So two things are converging here and who will win with Nikko Collins versus the stingy matchup. Raiders and Broncos. Another one I don't think a lot of people will have it on the quad box. Brock Brock Bowers or bust here for the Raiders. Denver's an avoid matchup for quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers in this matchup. La Stavante Adams is quote unquote hurt. When you look at when you look at Denver, they have yet to allow more than 47 yards to any tight end. However, they haven't really been challenged by any opponent. The best tight end they have faced so far is pat farm. So a massive test in Brock Bowers to open things up for the Raiders this week for Denver. Fire up your court link to Sutton shares. This is the strong wide receiver matchup plus 5.4 adjusted points per game. And if there's a spot for Sutton to be a quality lineup confidence play, this is at 34 routes per game. 25% target per route run. Time to convert for Courtland Sutton. Take a few deeper shots, Bonix. And again, this is the matchup. This is the signal. And this is the confidence peaking for Courtland Sutton to come through. If you're a facilities manager at a warehouse and your HVAC system goes down, it can turn up the heat. Literally. But don't sweat it. Granger has you covered. Granger offers over a million industrial grade products for all your operations, including warehouse HVAC maintenance. And even better, they offer access to experts and fast delivery. So you and your warehouse can both keep your cool. Call 1-800-granger, click ranger.com or just stop by. Granger for the ones who get it done. Arizona in San Francisco. Rey McBride is back, but is his production. It's a tough match up against the 49ers minus 2.7 adjusted points per game here. 49ers have yet to be challenged, but they have shut down tight ends. No one has had more than 21 yards in a game against them. And just 10 receptions allowed over four games. Something's got to give here. So the 49ers, Norden Mason to continue against the Cardinals struggling to contain running backs. Five running backs. Hey, they've only played four games. Five running backs with 15 plus points. And that's over the past three games alone, including 39 for 188 in a touchdown allowed against that duo in Detroit and then 29 for 169 and three touchdowns against a duo that you might not have expected there with Washington, Jeremy McNichols included. So Jordan Mason, the pathway continues for him to be the James Connor from a few years ago here for the 49ers and for fantasy. Giants and Seahawks for the Giants. Wandel Robinson is a Juan Jennings level streamer, no Malik neighbors. Where will the ball go? Robinson 31 points over the last two games, 18 receptions, 22 targets, a 31% target per rat run over those two games as well. So things are aligning where he's going to get the ball a ton. It's going to be some easy catches there from the slot. It might be ugly and grindy. It might be 10 for 85, but the volume is going to be there and the opportunity for one to Robinson will be there. Seahawks can Geno Smith stay hot against the tough Giants defense. The problem might be game script. It's the biggest point spread of the week there. Seattle might be able to do whatever they want. The Giants might not be able to challenge them offensively enough on the scoreboard. Only one opposing quarterback has thrown more than 29 passes against the Giants, but 304 have hit two plus touchdowns. So Geno Smith with a really good game against the Lions and the loss of week four. And it's poised that he might be efficient, but the volume definitely going down in terms of a quarterback that we could see 27 passes, two touchdowns, a comfortable win. And Geno Smith not really being that rocket ship fantasy wise just because they cruise to the comfortable win. Plackers and Rams for the Packers. Gordon Love Elite game coming. His Yolo style has been there in his first two games, three big time throws, five turnover-worthy plays, along with six touchdowns. The Rams have allowed two quarterbacks to throw three touchdowns against them and have forced only one interception. It's an ideal setting for Gordon Love to thrive with a clean game. That's the important part. No turnovers, can he get multiple touchdowns and get things working again for this Packers offense that frankly looked really good with Malik Willis, not that you trust that to continue. It's more like a winning case of emergency. We're going to, we're going to rub these sticks together and get it to work in the short term. But again, Jordan Love needs to harness that clean game mentality of Malik Willis for the Rams. Well, too, too. Atwell and Jordan Whittington continue their ascension. Packers are a plus 5.4 point per game matchup against the wide receivers. Atwell, 3.33 yards per route run, 21% target per route run. Whittington 2.07 yards per hour and 24% target per route run. So strong figures there and they're easily eclipsing Demarcus Robinson and Tyler Johnson. The ball needs to go atwell at Whittington's way. Last game, we've got Dallas and Pittsburgh for Dallas. Will Jake Ferguson be a top three tight end by the end of the week? Currently he's tied in five points per game after 26 points the past couple of weeks for Pittsburgh. They're tough across the board except for the tight end position. They've yet to be challenged by tight ends. They've had the Colts, Chargers and Broncos the past three weeks. They did allow Kyle Pitts to go three for 26 on a touchdown in week one. Ferguson is easily the biggest challenge that the Pittsburgh Steelers have had for opposing tight ends yet. But the Steelers, Najee Harris in line for a season best game. 13 points is his high water mark so far. Jalen Warren out Cordell Patterson out and Dallas plus 4.1 points in adjusted strength of schedule for the running back position. They've allowed seven total touchdowns for running backs. Harris 16 plus touches every game this season. So the stars are aligning for Najee Harris to have his best game and to find more fantasy lineups this week. As I mentioned, all the premium shows that are available for UTH dynasty.com subscribers. This is one where you don't want to miss the film that's podcast on a weekly basis. There's two to three dynasty trading shows with Ryan Morgan. You get to hear one on the free side here on a weekly basis. But I do a co-roster show with him for 45 minutes this past week. We did a deep dive on the Kansas City Chiefs dynasty assets. And then also we saw fantasy matchup analysis from Ryan and also box scored deception, dissection and disinfection in another show. So basically an hour 45 of talking trading and Ryan Morgan contributing quality premium shows on our channel as well. You got running back round up on every Monday talking about all the depth charts at the running back position where we stand. And then you get a final thought show, which is usually 15 to 20 minutes going over practice reports final moves to make and a number of recommendations as we get late in the week as well. Thank you so much for listening to the under helmet branding here on a weekly basis and finishing out the week as we get ready for the early kickoff here on week five. And someone actually said, you know, the NFL season is running full bore when we start to have London games. And here we are having games across the pond having games that are now starting very early, especially for those on the west coast. So good luck in your match ups. Hopefully you have a lead from Thursday night. And hopefully you can catch up if not, I'm Chad Parsons. Until next time never settle refused to be average and keep building those besties. Bingo. All right, Phil, we're recording now. So it's live. Go ahead. Pick on me the way that you want to. Did I say that? I would say that to my son. And I mean, come on, man. Just go. This isn't CBS. All right. Be quiet for a few seconds. Why would people want to listen to the Sims complete podcast? Well, a couple of things. One, if you like to see sons pick on their father, this might be the place. If you want to see a place where the father just kicks he out of his son, this will be the place. What do you like about it, Matt? Ditto. Father, son, dynamic duo talking about the game of football that we love and share and appreciate together. And you know, hey, it's an extension of what we did, right? Growing up, I was able to watch my father play football, then obviously watch him as a broadcaster. And then he taught me the game of football and share the wisdom that he learned throughout his playing career. And you know, hey, sometimes we're full of it. And sometimes we're, we actually know a thing or two. Well, we do do a lot of research, at least I do. You, you little spotty, but you know, you're, you hang in there. It's fun. I love doing this. And it's been awesome. Sims complete. Check us out wherever your podcasts are available on the Believe Network. Appreciate it. See you. If you liked the show, please take a moment to rate, review, and subscribe. It really does help the show to grow. Thank you for listening. [BLANK_AUDIO]