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Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit trimfiaradio.com. This episode is brought to you by Progressive. Most of you aren't just listening right now, you're multitasking, but what if you could also be saving money by switching to Progressive? Drivers you save by switching save nearly $750 on average and auto customers qualify for an average of seven discounts. So multitask right now. Get your quote now at Progressive.com. Progressive casualty insurance company and affiliates. National average 12-month savings of $744 by new customer surveyed who saved with progressive between June 2022 and May 2023. Potential savings will vary discounts not available in all states and situations. I don't think that was passive aggressive. I think you're just asshole aggressive there and that's just my word. Oh, I'm aggressive aggressive. Yeah, you're an asshole. I don't deny it. I think we've come on to the term hot asshole aggressive, just acid aggressive, acid aggressive. The T-shirts are ordered. They'll be on sale eventually acid aggressive. Let's do it. I like it. Yeah, TPM, Chris Simms Unbuttoned, picks podcast delivered by Little Caesars, the official pizza sponsor of the NFL. Pizza, pizza. Also, I think we do. I think you're on to something. I think we like, you know, between some of your sayings and like things that we talk about and my simsisms and stuff, maybe I think it might be time to, you know, get some get some gear out there into the world, like some PFT. You got enough money. Start. These doesn't take that. It's not that expensive to get this done. Get it done. Expand your brand. Let's make it cool. Let's get the kids and everybody wearing T-shirts and stuff of our stupid, say moment earlier today on PFT Live, you know, the show you used to do and it started with Jerry Jones landing his helicopter on the practice field and I asked Devin McCordy if RKK had a helicopter and he said, yeah, but he had a helicopter pad. And I said with Jerry Jones, the world is your helicopter pad. So Devin said, the world is my helicopter pad needs to be a T-shirt. We're getting there. Yeah. That's all right. All right, work on it. And then I like your shirt today. Wear that, but OK, fine, you know, I feel like you shouldn't be able to wear that. They're an old NFC North rival of the Vikings. I mean, I played for that team. I mean, that should only be copyrighted for me to wear from time to time. You should not be able to wear buck's gear. First of all, I can be bought because when people send me stuff I wear at second of all, you know my rule, closest in the cleanest, not necessarily cleanest, but definitely the closest this morning as I was rushing it up here. And third, I wore it for PFT Live. I went downstairs and you know you've been married a long time when the first thing out of your wife's mouth isn't good morning, honey, but you wore that. Yeah. Thank you, Jill. Thank you, Jill. Well done. So not that we had to be married very long for her to greet me that way, but I guess I gave her a reason. And I thought about changing, but I just decided, you know, screw it, we're having fun. It's football. It's not serious. And let's, let's talk some football. And let's talk about how things went last. Oh, yes. Oh, yes. 11 and 5, there I am. I'm still in the dark. That's from the moment that I was in the wrong spot on the week two Friday night game between the Eagles and the Packers in Brazil. I was 11 and 5. Chris is 8 and 8. Oh, I extended by three games there, three games against the spread. Are we going to have to stop the fight four weeks in? No, we're not. No, we're not. But I'm embarrassed. I'm embarrassed. I was telling family last night. I'm like, I'm struggling with picks more than I ever can remember. I sat down the last two nights and wrote notes on the games like I'm determined to flip it around. So hopefully this can start it right here. We'll see. You're only going to make it worse. Maybe it's a thing. I don't know. Here's a thing. I don't know about that. This is one of the, this is one of the things I've noticed as I paid attention to some of the, you know, the so called experts out there who tell you what you should bet on. You can come up with any reason to support any position on any bet. You can find a stat to support this side. You can find a stat to support that side. There's no amount of analysis or thought that is better than, I don't know why I'm telling you this because it's only going to make you better. It's better than your gut feeling because when you live it all the time, you carry it around all the time, you just sit down and you go. Give me two teams. Here's the score. Give me two teams. Here's the score. The culmination of what you think about all the time, you're overthinking it, you're definitely overthinking it. Probably. I'll tell you what I did. Yeah. When I did this morning, finished the show, got a cup of coffee, got a piece of toast. Right. Or two. Right. Coffee paste snarky comment posted the story about 20 to 10. All right. Let's look at the games. All right. Boom. Score, score, score, score, score. That means I'm going to whip your ass this week. So go ahead. All right. Okay. Let's go. That's how I do it every week. Now it's going to change. I'll go. Come on. Let's go. All right. By the way, every week, this season, you can play along with us, DraftKings has set up the free $1,000 Florio and Sims pick and pull, pick every game against the spread for a chance at a $1,000 prize pool every week. Download the DraftKings app, click on the pools tab and enter the Florio and Sims free $1,000 pick and pull to make your picks. Just like us, you must enter all your picks before kickoff of the first game of the week on Thursday night, doesn't matter if you don't know the full injury reports, doesn't matter if something unexpected happened, you got to lock them all in by Thursday night. And by the way, even though I'm 37 and 25 against the spread, which is pretty damn good, I don't know what I'm doing. Nobody knows what they're doing. Anybody who acts like they know what they're doing is just lucky and they think they're good. Over time, it all evens out, which means the house wins. So keep that in mind, only bet money you can afford to lose, but this pick and pull is free and there's a $1,000 pool every week. So have some fun, enjoy the games, and be smart with your money. Okay, let's see how smart we are. There are four buys this week, Lions, Eagles, Chargers and Titans are off, Thursday night football features my Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking on the Atlanta Falcons and Akaka Cousins. Fourth home game already for the Falcons, Matt Ryan's going into the ring of honor tonight. One and a half point favorites are the Falcons with an over under 43.5, who you got? My big thing is, is can Atlanta run the ball on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, right? That's the question for me in this game. And I look at it and kind of just go, the Tampa can stop the run. There's no doubt about that. Okay, so then I flip it over and go, wait, can they pass the ball against Tampa Bay? And I go, yeah, to a degree, they might be efficient, but I don't think the, the offense for the Atlanta Falcons and especially the passing game is, is explosive enough. One, you don't have a quarterback that has an explosive arm and really nobody else is really explosive on their wide receiving court. I mean, there's really just Darnell Mooney. He's the only guy that scares you down the field and I don't even know if Kirk Cousins is the guy to be able to take advantage of some of his talents there. So I think that favors the bucks. The bucks are a team that will play man. We know they're not afraid to crowd the line of scrimmage and do that. And then on the opposite side of the ball, hey, I like Atlanta's defense. Definitely. And I think they're going to give up a good fight here tonight, but I think ultimately I'm just going to go with the bucks here because I think they got a few more playmakers. I think Baker Mayfield's got the hot hand. They got a little more balance on offense altogether and a more explosive ability. I'm going to go bucks 24 20 on the road. The Falcons are a fascinating team. Yeah, they're taking for no, they can be going for the two games. They lost. They could have won the two games. They won. They should have lost agreed. They were outplayed by the Saints and they should have lost and they were they should have lost the Eagles. The Eagles gave it to him. They let him off the hook, right. So I don't know what the Falcons really are. I think the Buccaneers are a really good team that stepped on a rake week three against the Broncos and quickly shook it off and man handled the Philadelphia defense. Talk about the Buccaneers offense. I mean, look how good the Eagles defense was against the Saints and look at what the Buccaneers did to them. And I know they hate was probably a factor, but still the Buccaneers seem to be the team in the NFC South this year, if not in the entire conference. I believe in the Buccaneers tonight. I know that the Falcons understand the magnitude of the moment divisional game. It's a big swing, but it is for the bucks too. If they lose, they're three and two and the Falcons are three and two. If they win, it's four and one versus two and three and all you got to worry about is the Saints at that point as a practical matter. I think the bucks continue their early season success. I'm surprised the Falcons are favored. The Buccaneers will definitely use that as a little extra motivation because they seize on anything they can. They're thinking they should be favored in this game. I think they win 27 20. Yeah, I hear you there. All right. Let's go. Next one. All right. Sunday morning. Can't wait. Right in early nine 30 a.m. The New York Jets and their cadence issue, which is not a cadence issue like they're going to London. It's a cadence issue. They are going to London and they're taking on the Vikings. The Vikings, the technical home team, two and a half point favor to put it over under a 40. I've picked both the Jets and the Vikings against the spread every game this year. So something has to give. I'm sure you want me to start. Of course, the problem. Here's the problem. I don't know which Jets team is going to show up. And Devin McCordy made a great point. They beat the Patriots on the Thursday night two weeks ago. And Aaron Rogers looks like MVP Aaron Rogers and they turned around on a short weekend. They're ready to go. Robert Solley gets no credit for that getting them ready to play their third game between September nine and September 19 big win. No credit for Salah. They get 10 days to get ready for the Broncos and they shit the bad and it's all solos fault. So it's just weird how the Jets have developed into an up and down Jekyll and Hyde. Team and with Aaron Rogers, he goes from MVP to AARP back and forth. And so how can you trust them when when can you believe that that the good Jets are going to show up. And meanwhile, it's been good Vikings every single week. And even when the Vikings try to hand the game over to the 49ers of the Packers and blow a multi score lead, the Vikings still figure out a way to slam the door. So look, I won't be shocked if the Jets win because maybe MVP Aaron Rogers shows up and just plays lights out. But how do you, how do you not? How do you not go with a team that's four and O going into their buy week on the back end showed up with the Lions after that. I got the Vikings 24 17. Okay. Yeah. Listen, I mean, it's going to be a good one. There's no doubt about that. I mean, this is one of the games of the weekend 100% I mean the Jets struggled last week, right? Aaron Rogers didn't play good. He went down on my Wednesday podcast in depth. There is an issue with him and Garrett Wilson. There definitely is. If I was Garrett Wilson, I'd go, wait, he doesn't like me. I was open a lot. He didn't even look at me. There's definitely something there, right? Rogers still has some of the problems we've talked about when the short passing game is taken away or anything like that. He does not want to throw the ball down the field. He doesn't want to hold the ball. So yes, that's a little scary, but I think we're going to see a better Aaron Rogers because of all those things we just said, and they were glaring last week, and there are going to be a little bit of a desperate football team because you know, oh, wait, wait, two and three. We know the Vikings are the best team in football right now. There's no question about that. I think I'd put them in front of anybody. In fact, I wanted to make fun of you. You putting them at number three was a disgrace, a disgrace. I can't even believe that on Wednesday and you can't, but you don't do the show on Wednesday anymore. So shut up. You don't get a vote in that. Yeah. I never had a vote in it. I never had a vote in it. That's ridiculous. They've played the best and you've made them third. I don't even understand that, but either way, all right. So, but here's the match up and where it concerns me for your Vikings, okay? Your Vikings defenses statistically lets up a lot of yards, right? Your Vikings defense does not play man to man. It's either blitz or drop out in a zone a lot of the time. That's right up Aaron Rogers wheelhouse. That short, quick, quick passing game, I think is going to be a very much of an issue for the Vikings here because now it's who cares about the blitz or if it's going to be a blitz. I'm throwing it quick and I'm dissecting anyways. So I think there's a little advantage there for the Jets and this matchup to be had against the Vikings and of course, I think the Jets defense is really good. I'm going with the Jets and the upset in London here. I am. I think they're desperate. I think they've heard a lot of crap up here this week and I think there's in a lot of ways they match up pretty damn good with the Minnesota Vikings and they got a guy that can match up with Justin Jefferson and sauce gardener 24 21 jets. You know, the Jets need this one because they got the bills and the stealers. They got three straight stand alone games that everyone can watch their dysfunction and I don't know that this Devontae Adams talk helps them. One of those receivers is going to be the odd man out if Adams comes in Gary Wilson's already pissed off. It's all in that man. What do you think? It's a mess. Exactly. Exactly. I wouldn't. I wouldn't. I don't think it's good for them, but we'll see where that goes. Okay. Panthers at the Bears. The Bears have Caleb Williams thanks to the Panthers and he Dalton playing quarterback who was QB one for a short period of time with the Chicago Bears before Justin Fields took over. Bears are favored by four neither of us have picked Carolina to win yet this season, which is not really a shock. Do the Bears get to three and oh at home? Caleb Williams, the first quarterback taken number one overall in the common draft to be two and oh at home to start his career. Does he get to three and oh and the Bears to three and two? Yeah, I mean, hey, it's it's it's a close football game here. That's the way at least I say it. I'm going to go with the Bears to win it. I am. I think my big thing here is I mean, the Bears are a defensive football team. They got studs all over that side of the ball. We've seen them really make every offense they play this year struggle. Matt Stafford, CJ Stradd only scored 19 points. So they're real on that that side of the ball and I don't think the Carolina Panthers have enough weapons on that's on offense to really stress them out. Carolina's O line is good. There's no doubt. I don't know if I'm ready to call them a force in the running game and all that. But yeah, that's where the Bears I think do have an advantage and it's the second week the Bears receivers are all going to be healthy together, right? So I look at that and I go the Bears started to run the ball last week and I think there's enough there and enough on the offense versus Carolina D that's not very good and has no superstars or studs on their defense without Derek Brown in there. So yeah, I'm going Bears at home 2320, Mike. Bears discover the running game a little bit last week, offense getting a little better. There was a report on Sunday morning from Jay Glazer, who's known Mercedes Lewis, the Bears tight end forever and Mercedes Lewis went on the record saying that he called combat and Caleb Williams went to offense coordinator Shane Waldron and said, you got to coaches. This isn't pop Warner. You got to coach us. We need that. And something clicked, something work, even though it felt like for a while the Rams were going to pull off the win at Soldier Field. The Bears got the victory and for as I don't want to say poor, but let's say below expectations going into the season. They've played this year. They're two and two, right? They're in position. Yep. You know, those wins in September are money in the bank and they got more in the bank than we thought they were going to have when the month ended. So they get their chance to get above 500 and make things interesting. It's glaring. Like, I mean, I know you've heard me say it, right? We talked about it almost every week. The Bears office doesn't do much. There's not much there to advantages to be had all of that. When the players go to the offensive coordinator to say that, that means they think and see what Chris Sim said times 10. I mean, that that's what they're saying. I mean, that that's that doesn't happen unless it's like, wait, what the hell are we doing? I played in the NFL. It's never been like this. What are these plays? What are we doing? I mean, that that's, yeah, that's a little concerning. So hopefully the success continues from last week. I've already got Bears fans saying, Hey, how about Cliff Kingsbury's the head coach next year? That's how badly it's gone on offense for the Bears. But but they're in the midst of hopefully for them turning it around. Yeah. Ravens at the Bengals. Ravens have turned. Oh, my score. My score. Sorry. Let's go, man. I mean, I gotta give a score. Yeah, of course. The Bears. The Bears. 31. I got, uh, you good? You got it now? Are you done? You ready? You ready for the pick? High level comedy. So you actually picked the Panthers to cover. Yeah. It was a little too much. Yeah, I am. I am. Four points too much. Okay. Well, too much. All right. We'll see how that goes. All right. My score is 31 to 20 or 30 to 21. Let me check it again. 30 to 21. Bears over the Panthers. All right. All right. Ravens at the Bengals. Whoa. This is a, this is a massive game. You look at this one and say, and Devin McCordy said this earlier down PFC live, why is this at one o'clock Eastern? This feels like a more significant game than a one o'clock kickoff, especially with the stakes here. Ravens start 0 and 2. They win two in a row. Bengals start 0 and 3. They beat the Panthers. The Bengals defense. Not good. Ravens offense. Round and pound and ground and pound some more. Ravens are favored two and a half. They're just one of three road favorites this week with an over under of 49. Do the Bengals get to two and three and drag the Ravens down to that same record. The Ravens got a going on. They finally have a calling card again and it's called we whoop your ass right up the fucking middle in the run game. That's what it is. And then when you overplay that fit on the car, yeah, that will put that on the t-shirt too. That's right. Right. And then when you overplay that, they fucking toss it outside or do something Lamar Jackson out on the edge. Sorry. I'm on a roll here. Okay. So they got it going. And you know, I know everybody, the Bengals can't stop the run. They can't stop it. Now BJ Hill might be back this week, which could be good for them certainly, but I know it doesn't make me feel all that better. This is an issue. This could be the week where we see the 350 yard passing game for Lamar, because I think the bangles are stuck in a spot where they're going to go, we're, we're, if we don't stop the run, we're definitely going to lose. So let's see if we can stop the run and then maybe pull it out with Lamar in the passing game and maybe they make a mistake. That's kind of how I look at it. And I think that also, you know, Lamar has a good day. And then Joe Burrow, Joe Burrow and company, I know they're going to keep pace. Their offense is rolling too, but I just think ultimately it's the Ravens are a little bit better of a football team. And what they got going on that offensive side of the ball, I think should have put defenses in a bind as long as they stay serious with that run game. I'm going Ravens 34, 28. All right, we are very much aligned in our thought. I got 31, 27 Ravens. And I know we're kind of skewing toward higher scores, but we've seen some higher scores now. Yes. The offenses have settled in right the first month of the regular season, which is basically an extension of the preseason is over and we're seeing teams scoring more points. And I think the Bengals know they're going to have to score a shitload of points to have a choice here, a chance here, excuse me, Joe Burrow made that point earlier in the week. He needs to play damn near perfect on offense because they're going to have a hard time with the Ravens defense or Ravens offense. It's becoming pick your poison. And you're right. This could be the week that the Ravens sell out to stop the run and they spot the opportunities to get the ball down the field. And those receivers have, you know, some catches this week instead of like one here or one there. The numbers last week were embarrassing for the passing game, but you don't, if you don't need to do it, if they can't stop your running game, you just keep running. Okay. Next game, the Colts two and two, the Jaguars, oh, oh, wait, I missed one. I skipped one. Sorry. Another compelling game for one o'clock Eastern, the Bills at the Texans, the Stefan digs second time this year, he's playing one of his former teams, Buffalo is favored by one point. They got blown off the field by the Ravens, but they're otherwise undefeated. The Texans at three and one as well. I'm a little surprised. The Bills are favored. But again, they're favored by one 47 and a half. Bills Texans. Who you got? Well, the biggest thing here right now that is like the Bills have an advantage and the Texans are maybe not capitalizing to the capacity we thought they would. Bills offense scores a lot of points and their defense does not allow a lot of points, right? The Texans on offense, they gain more yards in the Buffalo offense, but they don't score a lot of points. And it's kind of the same thing with their defense. They let up less yards than Buffalo, but they do let up some points there. And that's always scary with Josh Allen at quarterback because Josh Allen is the ultimate, Hey, my stats weren't that good, but there was four plays to be had to have an explosive player touchdown today and I was four for four and you're down 28, right? That's where they're amazing. Josh Allen is always scary that way, but I do think that the Texans are the better football team through and through. I think the Texans need to run the ball better and if they can do that a little bit like we saw last week, Buffalo is compromised in that type of game. It's when they get overpowered a little bit up front, they have issues. They're not a very good man to man football team, so they don't want to do that. And that that will stress them out. I think the Texans get back to running the ball a little bit this week, but just enough to where it opens up their pass game. That's the big thing there. And with Buffalo, yeah, it's Josh Allen and yes, they're more physical and they can run and do all that, but I don't look at this and go, Oh, yeah, this is the week they're just going to overrun the Texans and do and get 150 yards rushing. No way. They have the speed in the front seven to corral Josh Allen and do that. I'm not a believer in the overall Buffalo offense yet. So I'm going to go Texans 30 to 27 here. What is shock? What is shock? You hate the bills. Why do you hate the bills? I get that question all the time. Why does Chris hate the bill? You know, that's not the truth and you know, one of my favorite players in the history of football is Josh Allen. So, but yes, I'm not believing in them totally as a team here right yet. I look at the Texans and choose my words carefully here. And I had this realization in the morning of the Texans Vikings game after we had already made our picks and I really wasn't sure whether it was wise and prudent to pick the Vikings to win the game. The Vikings were underdogs in that game and I started thinking about last year for the Texans. It's not like they were a team that beat a bunch of great teams. They took care of their business. They went 10 and seven. They won the games. They were supposed to win. They lost the games for the most part. They were supposed to lose. They haven't really done anything yet signature victory style that makes you say this is team that shows up and prevails against an elite team. They'll handle and hey, it's hard to do because there's still NFL teams. They'll handle the teams they're supposed to handle. And so I look at this one as another example and this is part of the growth that we either are or aren't going to see from CJ Stroud. Is he going to become guy who can go toe to toe with Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen? This is his chance to go toe to toe with Josh Allen. He was asked about it yesterday and he just kind of downplayed the whole thing. I, you know, I compete with all the cliches. I'm competing against myself. I think you need to have a sense of the moment and you need to have a sense that this is a preview of the way that paths can cross in the postseason. Sure. So I just, until I see the Texans do it, yeah, I'm going to go with the other guy, the team that we've seen right do it. Now I'm concerned. Khalil Shakir has an ankle injury and he didn't practice on Wednesday. And look, Nico Collins has 409 receiving yards. He's on pace to set the single season record. We still got 13 games to go. Still Nico Collins and CJ Stroud a great connection. They're going to have to do something defensively. Von Miller's suspended for four games, even though he's only taken 35% of the snaps. He's got three sacks in four games. They use him in the right spots and he's effective when he's on the field and he's gone for the next four weeks for a personal contact policy violation. So I'm a little, I'm a little nervous about it. I think the fact that the bills got embarrassed in prime time last week, and remember we were like, why is Josh, they lacked urgency. How the fuck do you not have urgency when you're going into face a desperate Baltimore team in their own building, they'll have the urgency on Sunday. The bills will have the urgency. And I think the bills will win the game by the score of 27 to 24 could go either way. I'm not, you know, this is not going to be a best bet, not that it matters because our best bets are asked this year, but I'm not, I'm not going to have the kind of faith necessary, but I do think the bills win the game and, and, and get to four in one. Yeah. I listen, I hear what you say about CJ Stroud and the Texans and all that, you know, there's a part of me too that again, the bills, I know they're three in one and they were impressive in some of them, but I also am going, well, okay, the dolphins have showed zero fight. Like if they just, if it's not a track meet, they don't even want to play football. And then, okay, Jacksonville is arguably the most dysfunctional team in football right now too. So that's where I'm a little unsure of the bills, a little bit here. And I look at the bills and go, yeah, they want to run the ball and the clear, secure thing and all that, you know, Houston keeps a lot of guys of the line of scrimmage Houston can play man to man. That's what's different about them too. And that's where I think they got a little bit of an advantage here. And the bottom number thing certainly went into my thinking as well, that they're not going to be able to pressure Stroud the way they want to and the way they play zones. It's just going to be going to have too much time. But, but I'm scared and I'm with you and it won't be my best bet. I don't think that that's for sure. Stefan Diggs had 10, and he's got that two yards in his game against the Vikings, even though the final score was 34 to seven. Diggs is going to be ready to go. No doubt. I don't know who's to blame for what happened between digs and the bills. There's a hashtag long read on ESPN.com that goes inside the divorce between the bills and the digs. There's nothing in there that that we didn't already know and there's no magical answer in there. It goes both ways and there's enough there for digs to get himself motivated and ready to go and he will be and maybe he'll be the difference in the game. I don't know. I still feel like the bills are the team that is better suited for moments like this that Texans have to prove that they are before I'll believe that they can do it on a regular basis. This episode is brought to you by Opel, the first over-the-counter daily birth control pill available in the U.S. Opel is FDA approved, full prescription strength and estrogen-free. Plus, there's no prescription needed. Finally, the days of needing a prescription for birth control are over. Opel is available online and at most major retailers. Take control of your health and reproductive journey with Opel. Put control in your control. Use code "birthcontrol" for 25% off your first month of Opel at opel.com. You know, we all find ourselves in situations where we can feel a little bit nervous. Sometimes, for me, standing in a studio, the lights get a little hot. The anxiety runs a little high as I wonder whether or not the words are going to come out of my mouth the way that they are supposed to. 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I know they had a chance to beat the Texans but they didn't and they got embarrassed by the Bills. I'm surprised to see the Jaguars favored in this one. You can argue they're due to get a win and maybe they are. We'll see. They go to London for a couple of games after this one. Doug Peterson, has he lost the team? They asked him yesterday and he said no. What else is he going to say? What do you think happens with the Jaguars and the Colts? It's one of those weird things where the Colts go down there and for whatever reason, they always play well. It doesn't matter who's coaching, whatever. It's one of those like phenomenon that we see every now and then. Two bad defenses. The two worst defenses, I mean two of the top, what, bottom three or four defenses in football. I think I'm somewhat in the range there. They're at the bottom of the list. That's all I could tell you. That, of course, is concerning and tells you, wait, I don't know where this game is going to go. They go to a basic level of like, listen, I know Jacksonville is desperate, but they've been desperate and, you know, there's three times this year you could go, oh, they could have pulled it out like you said, but they don't. They don't. So they have a little bit of like the disease of, eh, we're going to fuck it up somehow some way. We're going to do it. We'll do that. And bottom line is with the things going on in Jacksonville, the talk Trevor Lawrence did not play good last week. Doug Peterson, when he was after the game and said, you know, the players got to make some plays, he was talking about Trevor Lawrence after watching that film back yesterday. There's no doubt that's who he was talking about. There was five or six throws in that game where you go our $55 million a year quarterback has to hit that and that jump starts us and then we win a game and a jump starts our organization. I have more faith in Shane Steichen. When it's a game of bad defenses, I have more faith in Shane Steichen. I don't give a damn if it's Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco. The Colts can run the ball. They can protect the passer and they'll find ways to throw the ball against this bad Jacksonville defense. I'm going the Colts 28, 21. This is one of those weird situations where you've got an injured starting quarterback and for me, it doesn't matter whether they're Anthony Richardson or Joe Flacco. And that's credit to the Colts and Chris Ballard. You look at the dolphins and what they're dealing with because they didn't have an established veteran presence behind two at Tonga by Loa. And they should have the Colts got Joe Flacco. I have no concern for any drop off. It's going to look different, but I have no concern for any drop off from Anthony Richardson's Joe Flacco. You know, you got Jonathan Taylor running the ball well and, and I, I just, hey, bottom line. Yeah, the Jaguars can get their act together. Yeah, they can take the dysfunction and turn it into functionality. What have we seen to make us think it's going to happen though in the aftermath of a game where they almost beat the Texans. That's where we started getting these crazy comments about, hey, you know, don't blame us blame the players or words to that effect and just this sense that it's starting to fall apart for the Jaguars and we've got this two game road trip coming up and Trevor Lawrence has said before he's not a big fan of being gone for all that long. I just, I think that the Jaguars get the win. I'm going to pick it closer than you did 24 21. You say the Jaguars or the Colts? No, the Colts. I get this all the time. The Colts. Thank you for correcting me. Colts. My hand was still on the checker. The Colts win the game 24 21. And if it ends up being another ugly mess, maybe Doug Peterson doesn't get on the plane to London. Maybe. I listen, I hear you. I think it's a little too early for that, but it's certainly, you know, we're getting close to pressing the alarm button and going, Hey, we got to have a serious, you know, organizational conversation. We haven't won a regular season game. And what is it now, 13 games in a row, 12. They're one in nine in the last 10. That's ridiculous. That's ridiculous. So yeah, those talks are going to happen. No doubt dolphins, Patriots, Fox has the game. They could have sent Tommy to Foxborough for dolphins, Patriots, but he doesn't want that. He said the hell with that. He said, Carlos 49ers instead, I'm not going to go watch crap versus crap. Right. That's really what the two offenses are. Tyler Huntley versus Jacobi Percette is just a matter of time before it's Drake May, just a matter of time before it's to again, something's got to give something's got to give in this one. Who do you got? Yeah. I mean, ugly game. It's in New England. All right. And I think the biggest thing is the dolphins are in shell shock. They're in shell shock. They've never, they have not recovered. They're still wobbly from the tuba injury. They are. And you talked about it. I mean, you know, that's an offense with a lot of motion and movement and all that stuff. And that's where a veteran guy certainly helps. And I know they got unlucky with Skylar Thompson because he would have been that guy. And I think it's an easier transition and he would have been better running the offense because he knows it more. But yeah, they're in a tough spot. I got to see it to believe it before I pick the Miami Dolphins, ugly defensive game up in New England. That seems right up New England's way with Jacobi Percette, Geron Mayo, 17, 14 pads. Yeah, I had 17, 10, I think 16, nine just feels better, more field goals, fewer touchdowns. Tyree kill. This is one of those weeks that I wish you did more than Monday because we could have sunk our teeth into the whole Tyree kill frustration versus motivating his teammates and how, how poorly they, they handled the quarterback position. And now you got a guy who was a pro baller asterisk once upon a time, but he's only been there a couple of weeks. It's not enough. Patriots get a rare win. This is one where when you look at the Patriots schedule, if you don't win this one, there may not be many more larking Patriots get it 16 to nine. All right. And by the way, you've yet to pick New England to win this season. Now you have Brown's commanders to wrap up the one o'clock slate. Commanders are favored by three and a half. This game fascinates me for one big reason. I talked about it earlier today on PFT live. You've got Jaden Daniels versus the guy who was Jaden Daniels seven years ago. That's what the Sean Watson was right superstar out of the gates MVP candidate, not just offensive rookie of the year until the ACL tear happened and you got Jaden Daniels who taken a lot of hits, a lot of commanders fans, shades of RG three, shades of Deshawn Watson to got to be careful with his body. But so far he's been spectacular. Do the commanders get to what would be an unthinkable four in one against the Browns on Sunday, Chris, my favorite by three and a half at home? Yeah. I mean, the Browns, I mean, that's a big one. We know that, but Washington's rolling right now on offense. They are. And we know Cleveland likes to play an aggressive D and blitz and play man to man. Jaden Daniels one, they have a great quick short passing game. He knows where to go to the ball. They can run the ball. The Browns have had issues as far as that's concerned. So I think there's, you know, a thought for me that, hey, I think they can handle the Browns aggressive D blitz. It does scare me a little bit, but I think they're built for it and the offensive lines with a pleasant surprise there. And I think the running game certainly will calm down the blitzing a little bit from that Browns defense. Now the other side of the ball, I have no faith in the Browns offense, none. And Washington's defense has also been a pleasant surprise. They're not super talented in the secondary. They're one thing that I guess scares me a little bit. I'm picking Washington, but the Browns will get a few shots to just throw it up to Amari Cooper or Jerry Judy one on one during this game. And if they capitalize on those and then it's up touchdown, we're going to be in a tight one or maybe they can pull off the upset. But another point where I'm going to go, I don't trust the Browns. I don't think the Sean Watson's any good. I'm going commanders 20 to 17. Hey, look, this is a hell of an opportunity for Amari Cooper to maybe get the commanders interested in trading for Amari Cooper because the commanders could be buyers and the Browns could be sellers as the deadline approaches and Cooper's been traded before by the Raiders to the Cowboys and by the Cowboys to the Browns. It wasn't an in season trade. So I don't rule out anything there and it's extra motivation for Cooper to have a big game. I still think that the commanders when I'm going 31 21, you pick the Browns to cover by a half point. Yeah. I think the commanders cover. I just, I think that they have that, that magic right now. The fact that they went to Arizona and did what they did to the Cardinals, the Browns are falling apart. I mean, the Browns lost to the Raiders. Raiders team mired in dysfunction right now with no Max Crosby, the Devontae Adams stuff. One of their touchdowns was a picked up fumble return. I mean, so yeah, I mean, they scare me. They scare me. All right. I got the commanders covering 31 21. Let's take a break when we return Sunday late afternoon games here on the joint production of Chris Simms Unbuttoned and PFTPM will be right back. The $5 meal deal at McDonald's means you get to pick between them a double or a Michigan. Then get a small fry, a small drink, and a four piece McNuggets. That's a lot of McDonald's for not a lot of money. Get the $5 meal deal today. Prices and participation may vary for a limited time only. The Glad Girl Group coming at you with a throwback jam. That was GLAD force flex drawstring trash bags featuring Pine Salt Original Sim. And that's better than all good. It's all GLAD. This podcast is brought to you by Kleenex Lotion Tissues. You can't predict sick days, but with Kleenex Lotion Tissues, you can be better prepared for them while helping keep your skin healthy. Kleenex Lotion Tissues moisturize to help prevent skin irritation while you're battling those unwanted cold and flu symptoms. It's extra care when you need it most. Keep relief within reach. Grab Kleenex Lotion Tissues to help avoid the added discomfort of irritated skin during cold and flu season for whatever happens next, grab Kleenex. Draft King Sportsbook is the number one place to bet touchdowns, and new customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets instantly. Download the App and Use promo code PFTLive when you sign up. Draft King Sportsbook, the crown is yours. And please bet responsibly only with money that you can afford to lose, because chances are you will. I keep adding a little bit more of the end of that. They're so great. I know they appreciate it, but I am a proponent of responsible betting because my dad, the book he told me when I was a kid, you can't win. So you have to go into it knowing you're probably not going to win. You can start fun with it. You can win. You can change your life. We want to get a spread last year. We won. We won every year versus spread. I don't like your talk. I like positivity. You can win. I'm going to win this beat. We're not betting money. We're not betting money. But we're not betting money. I know. It's his valuables money. I have been on football before, and I've had some moments of being way, way up, right? Like way, way up. When I first year out of the NFL, I'll give you a good, good story. First year out of the NFL, I have a rich friend, right? Who loves the gamble, of course. And he, I mean, thousands of dollars every week's on game, probably tens of thousands, honestly. I don't even know how much. I'm afraid to ask him because it would make me feel bad about myself. But either way, he would go, give me one game a week, right? And I'll give you 10% of the earnings. So my first year out, I mean, I went through a run of, I mean, I was like 15 and two, right? I mean, for games in a few weeks, I might have picked them one or two games, whatever. But I was up like $15,000, right? Something like that. I mean, it was crazy. I got to a playoff game and I was like, let it all ride on this game. And I can't remember what it is. It'll hit me in a second. And it all ended up like the team I picked looked great and they blew it late in the game and blew the lead and blew the spread and I lost all the money. And I was like, well, there's gambling for you. There you go. You're proving the point. I know. You're proving the point. I know. I wouldn't have done it. It was my money is what I was said. I wouldn't have bet the house. That's what I was going to say. Sunday afternoon late games, Raiders at the Broncos, Broncos are favored by two and a half. Max Crosby is valid that he will be back. Bonix has not been great, but the defense sure has been the past couple of weeks for the Broncos as they've gotten to two and two, low is over under the week at 36. Neither of us have picked Denver to win yet this season. Do you believe in the Broncos at home against the Raiders, Chris? I do. I mean, you know, again, this is this is the kind of games they can win. I don't expect it to be a high scoring fest here, right? It's going to be a defensive struggle. That's what they're built to be right now. They hung in there with the Steelers in that type of game, right? They of course beat the Jets on that type of game last week. Mike, you said it. I did a deep dive into this week. The Broncos defense is awesome. They're fun to watch. They got two pretty good pass-rushers on both sides of the ball and Bonito and Cooper. But the biggest thing with the Broncos, they arguably have the best secondary in football. It is legit. McMillenit, Nickelback's awesome, Sertaine might be the best corner in football, right? Riley Moss, the second year kid from Iowa's good, PJ Lock. So they're stacked there. I don't have enough faith in the Raiders offense without a Devante Adams to do anything on that side of the ball. I think that's what scares me. And then Bonix is getting better. They can run the ball a little bit. I don't think this Raiders defense is good as the Jets. I think the Broncos win a close-up. They won. I'm going to go 1913. 20 to 17, we're on the same page and there's not much more to say. Feels like the wheels are coming off for the Raiders, although maybe this idea of moving on from Devante Adams makes things less dysfunctional because having him there and not happy, maybe it's better once they move on for the Raiders. So bread a days could be ahead. Cardinals at the 49ers. Cardinals are one and three, but they're better than that. 49ers are two and two, but they're better than that. One of them is going to be in a pretty deep hole five weeks in. Cardinals are seven point underdogs at Levi's Field 49 and a half or Levi's Stadium, whatever the hell it is. That's something. 49 and a half is the over-under. Highest of the week. Who do you like? Well, last week was concerning a little to me with Arizona because I'm with you in that. I think they're better than what their record is, but that made me rethink things a little bit last week and how that went down to be dominated like that by Washington on both sides of the ball. And I think what you said is also true. I think the 49ers are still a really, really good team. I do. They blew that game against the Rams. The Vikings beat them, sure, but they probably should be three and one. I think the 49ers, oh, line is as good as it's been in the Shanahan era where they don't even need tricks. They're literally like, we're going to run right here, screw you and we're going to get eight yards and have fun tackling this sledgehammer. So that's where I think they can dominate that way. The Cardinals have no front seven stud or freak, Mike. They have nobody. And in these games, that's, that does matter. And then also what I'll say to this too, which I've realized with Arizona, they don't have anybody that can separate a receiver. There's nobody that scares you. Marvin Harrison's good, but he's not liking to back the defense off or teams. You're going to be like, Oh, no, we got to double him or we're done. That's not going to happen. I'd like the 49ers 31 20 in this one. I got 30 to 21. It's the second time this week I went 30 to 21 for a final score. And I, you know, we're on the same page with all of it, the 49ers have gotten plenty out of Jordan Mason. It tail back while Christian McCaffrey's out to Juan Jennings has been spectacular. Brock Purdy is playing better and better. The defense is good enough. They should be better than two and two. And I think they're going to start making their inevitable climb to the top of the division, top of the conference. They continue once they get McCaffrey back, if and when they get him back, they'll be right in the thick of things in the NFC. Packers at the Rams Packers, favored by three, Jordan Love, limited in practice on Wednesday, arguably shouldn't have come back the week he did against the Vikings. Rams are still just trying to hold it all together. They got that big win over the 49ers, but then lost to the Bears, their one and three Packers two and two. You picked the Packers straight up and against the spread every week this season. I have a feeling you're going to do it again. Yeah, I am going to do it again. I am. I think the Packers are a good football team. I think Jordan Love gets back on track this week. Yeah, the Vikings are good last week. They of course went down on the score, but then Jordan Love made mistakes to not keep them in the game. And then they weren't able to run the ball and that's their best asset right now as they can run the ball. The Rams cannot stop the run. That's going to be an issue for them, right? So I think the Packers get back to that as far as running the ball, dominating the line of scrimmage. I think it'll open up some big play action passes down the field, which the Packers love to do, right? But yeah, the Rams young, not very talented in the secondary, right? Got a lot of blue chippers up front, at least not yet. Stafford always dangerous. I get that, but I don't think he's got enough help around him on the offensive side of the ball for them to pull off any magic. And I think the Packers will be pissed after last week, 30 to 20 Packers. Yeah, Packers need this. When they're a high end contender, I've got them going to the Super Bowl this year. And yeah, do I, do I regret that a little bit now at two and two? Yes, but it's the time for them to slip it into, into gear and the Rams are dangerous because with Stafford, you never know when they can rise up and steal one. And I just don't think it's going to be this week, Giants at the Seahawks. Seahawks are favored by six and a half with an over under 43 and a half. I've yet to pick the Giants this season. And there's one reason I'm a little nervous about this one. The Giants played on Thursday. The Seahawks played on Monday and you get short week where, you know, the Seahawks fly back late from Detroit, hard fought game, a lot of scoring, defense worn out, and the Giants had extra time to recover from the last game. That one makes me a little skittish. I'm going to go ahead and go first on this. I still like the Seahawks, but I'm not going to pick them to cover the six and a half points spread. I got 24 20. I just worry that the Seahawks might be a little worn out and, and, you know, the other side of it, Malik neighbors is, it feels like he's going to miss this game, even though he's a week removed from a concussion. You see the guy check the box, check the box, check the box, come back from the concussion right away. It's, it's alarming that it feels like he's not going to be ready for that game. And obviously that changes the Giants offense. Yeah, it definitely does. I mean, if he doesn't play like, yeah, don't take the Giants, don't now the Seahawks offenses is damn good. They can do everything. They really can. So I don't see like the Giants D being able to stop them. I don't. They're defensive line will have to take over, but the Seahawks are better upfront than they've been in years past, but, you know, passing game, ginos on fire, they're getting everybody involved. I love all of that from them right now. The thing that's also scary is the Seahawks D is beat up like we saw and they're beat up. They're missing big time players on their front seven and it changes the way they have to play on that side of the ball. It changes and made them play more man to man and stuff like that and blitz because they can't stop the run without Leonard Williams or Bryant Murph or yeah, you know, the first round from Texas or Jerome Baker, I mean, they're, they're decimated who chained into woso, not up there. So now like if neighbors plays, he's going to have some man to man opportunities, right? But you know, I think the Giants will move it on them, but I don't think they're going to be able to move it on them at will because I just don't think they're good enough on that side of the ball. I like you. I'm taking the Seahawks, but not to cover the spread 27 21 Seahawks. All right, let's go ahead and take a break. By the way, we both like to see Hawks, both like the Giants to cover when we come back. Prime time games, including rematch of a three time Super Bowl encounter between the Cowboys and the Steelers. That's next on PFTPM and Chris Simms on by the $5 meal deal at McDonald's means you get to pick between them a double or a McChicken. Then get a small fry, a small drink, and a four piece McNuggets. That's a lot of McDonald's for not a lot of money. Get the $5 meal deal today, prices and participation may vary for a limited time only. The glad girl grew coming at you with a throwback jam. That was glad for his flex drawstring trash bags feature in pine salt original scent. And that's better than all good. It's all glad. That's all. Draft King Sportsbook is the number one place to bet touch sounds and new customers can bet $5 and get $200 in bonus bets instantly download the app and use promo code unbuttoned when you sign up Draft King Sportsbook. The crown is yours. All right, Sunday night football week, five picks pod delivered by Little Caesars pizza pizza pizza. Yeah, I'm supposed to say that there. I didn't say it. You said it. Little Caesars pizza. Okay. Let's see if you remember the scores, football historian, Super Bowl 10. I'm 21 17. Correct. Yes. Correct. We know the Steelers won Super Bowl 13. What was the score? 35 31 Steelers. Correct. Super Bowl 30. What was the score? Hold on. Damn it. I was at this game. Hold on. I'm choking under them. I'm choking like a whole lot. A second here. Gosh. I know I know this one. I'm really choking here. I know this one. Oh gosh. 20. 27 17. Bingo. Bam. Did you have that fed to you? Never. Never. Never. Hey, just say it. Say damn. You might be a historian. Just say it for me one time. That was good. You might be. You might be. You might be a lot of things. Yes, that's true too. You're definitely a Sasquatch on PFT live on the edition of Chris Sim Sasquatch. Although for people watching on Friday, we air the picks pod on the back end of an hour with Rodney Harris. There we go. Although they didn't play it last week on Sky Sports, so I got a shitload of emails. I don't know. Damn. I don't know. Maybe because we curse too much in the picks pod. He said the hell of that. They're there. They're there. They don't want to go through and scrub them all out. Okay. Although I think we scrub them out in advance. I think that's what Kristen gets to do or whoever gets the task of taking the swears out and there've been a few today. Let's get to it. Cowboys. Steelers. Now, Steelers are three and one. Cowboys, two and two. Cowboys. A little extra rest. Cowboys. No Michael Parsons. No to Marcus Lawrence. Steelers. Justin Fields. Yeah, they lost. Still scored 24 points. 24 points usually should be enough for the Steelers to win. And this one has an extra rank. Well, I talked about this earlier today on PFT live. Oh, what is it? When Mike Zimmer talked to Mark Craig of the Minneapolis Star Tribune before the season started. Right. And he aired grievances about anyone and everyone. The players got me. Did he tell everybody how much of an asshole you are? Okay. He didn't do that. He got those right here. Okay. Those are exclusive to my phone. Okay. But he didn't say a word about Kirk Cousins and it doesn't take a genius to know there was something off there between him and Cousins, but he didn't say anything about Cousins because he faces Cousins week nine. However, he wasn't thinking deep enough because he crapped on the former GM Rick Spielman for drafting Kellen Monde and for wanting to trade up and get Justin Fields in 2021. And Justin Fields hasn't done anything. That's what Zimmer said. And Justin Fields gets to do something to Zimmer on Sunday night. That adds a little next level spice to this one for me because I guarantee you Mike Tomlin and Arthur Smith and the coaching staff, they're going to be telling Justin Fields. Hey, Zimmer, you know, I'm done anything in the NFL, you can't do something for sure. You're right. So that's all the more reason. Look, you take away Parsons and Lawrence. The Cowboys offense hasn't been as good as it needs to be. The Steelers are at home and fields fields fields that, you know, it's getting a little bit closer to the time when Wilson's ready. And Mike Tomlin finally acknowledged that they keep playing well with fields. You know, maybe they will keep rolling with fields. Yeah. This is his chance. This is his time. This is his moment. And this is my score 28, 24 Steelers over the Cowboys. Yeah. I mean, to me, this game boils down to one thing. Like do we think the Cowboys are going to be able to move the ball consistently on this Pittsburgh defense? That to me is really what it is. And I know Pittsburgh's defense is good. I got that. But the other thing is Pittsburgh's defense, it hasn't exactly played the greatest offenses in the world. It's the Chargers. It's the Broncos that we've talked about. It was Kirk Cousins and his first action there. So I'm like, I know they're good, but how good and and the Cowboys, the offense, like I know it's not special. I get that, but I do wonder if they're going to move the ball, maybe more than I expect them to in this football game. I think that's the only thing that scares me a little bit. But ultimately I am favoring Pittsburgh. I don't, I don't envision them letting CD lamb get go off, right? I think that'll be priority number one. I don't think Dallas runs the ball enough and then we'd have no Brandon cooks this week either, right? So there's not another guy over there. And with like you said, the defense ends being hurt. It's a Dallas defense that's not good in the middle or a linebacker anyways. I think Pittsburgh will be able to run the ball enough. And when you play Dallas, you'll get some one on one shots down the field. You will. And that's Pittsburgh likes that. They like, Oh, hey, Pickens is one on one. Let's throw him a comeback. Let's throw him a go route. Let's just go to him and let's not make it all complicated. It's just he's better than that guy. And if he's opposite of Trayvon Diggs, he'll be better at whoever is over there all the time. Fields has been playing good. I'm going, I'm going Steelers obviously 24 17. It is a big concern when you don't really have a number two to CD lamb and Brandon cooks injured or not. He had one catch in their last game. So they should be interested in Devontae Adams. They're not. They probably don't want to pay him and don't go up the draft picks to get him, but they need a compliment. They need a real compliment to CD lamb. I see this is kind of like it's 28 17 and there's a late touchdown by the Cowboys. I think the Steelers are going to to handle this one. But, you know, we want an exciting game for Sunday night football, obviously for NBC and Peacock. All right. Monday night football. No simultaneous overlapping double header this week. Thank God. It's just the Saints and the Chiefs in New Orleans site of the next Super Bowl. So for the Chiefs, chances, no, it's not. Oh, it is a Kansas city. Why do I think it was in New Orleans? I've been saying all week it said fucking New Orleans. What's wrong with me? You're not that smart. We've, you know, it's well documented. What is wrong with me? You're not that smart. It's well documented. I'm serious. I've had it in my head all week that that game is in New Orleans. Yeah. Well, now I feel differently about it. Okay. What are you going to do? I mean, you go ahead. If you want to know, I'm trying to think of all you change. I'm trying to think of whatever. I'm trying to think of how many times this week I've talked about that game and said it was in New Orleans. Right. I'm very concerned about that. All right. All right. Well, anyway, you go ahead. Give me the winner. All right. I got to rethink. I got to rethink my pick. It's the Saints. Okay. All right. You're picking the Chiefs no matter what. Aren't you? Anyways, I mean, you're not. No. Well, no. I was going to pick the Saints in New Orleans. I was going to pick the Saints to win. Yeah. And now I got to rethink it. Go ahead. Okay. All right. Well, it is in Kansas City. Right. The Saints D is good. It is. I'm not like not a believer in that defense, right? They've had one bad outing this year and it was the Eagles and they didn't let up a lot of points. But like Kansas City doesn't have the Eagles firepower. They don't have that offensive line. They don't have that. So I think in a lot of ways, the Saints defense matches up good with Kansas City. They can play man to man. They can play zone. They're physical up front. I don't think the Chiefs, like I said, will be able to run the ball. And without Rishi Rice, I do worry about them getting open consistently in the passing game. Right. I don't think they have enough there in the passing game to expose a team like the Saints defense. All right. Yes, right. also have to be careful a little bit here of overplaying the rant. I mean, the Saints, the Saints run game on the other side of the ball. I think that's another big aspect of this, you know, again, I'm not, I'm not just because they lost us last week. They outplayed the Falcons. I'm not like off the bandwagon of the Saints and what they do. I think they're going to be able to run the ball on the Chiefs and they'll be able to run it enough to where we know the Chiefs will take some chances and go all out to stop it and leave their corners on an island or do something aggressive. And this ain't the team you want to do it with with Rishi Chihit and Olave. I'm going Saints 2720 to pull off the upset on the road against Kansas City. So you were trying to, you were trying to rope a dope. Well, yeah. I mean, gosh, I mean, yeah, I mean, you're so freaking dumb, you didn't, you're going to pick the game. You don't even know where it is. And I thought this was a game that you would pick the Chiefs because they're at home and all that. Now you got to hear my explanation and you're going to jump on the bandwagon with me. So it's, it's a really, we're putting this, a asterisk next to this game. No matter what now, when I thought the game was to be played in New Orleans, I believe the Saints would win 2423. I am changing it though. Now that I know it's in Kansas City, I don't like the chiefs to cover. Yeah. The chiefs have been playing with their food and or the kid who doesn't study for the test and still barely gets in a I'll go 2420 chiefs in this one gut feeling, you know, they haven't done anything to replace Rushy Rice so far. And I think the Saints can, can keep it close. And Derek Carr's got a history of playing in Arrowhead Stadium. So he can at least impart something to his teammates. Don't get freaked out about it and maybe be calm in the eye of the storm. But that chief's defense is, is too good to get burned by the Saints offense. And man, you know, they're going to go from two and O to two and three. And that's a problem. That's why I believe they would win at home. They need this one, but I, I think the chiefs, the chiefs pull it off. Although I don't feel, I don't feel a hundred percent confident. I never feel a hundred percent confident. I'm shocked at the five and a half points. I'm shocked by that. That was one of those where I looked at it and I was like five and a half points. Wow. You know, for a team that squeaks by by three, every team, every team they play. And this is a tough matchup. I thought that was kind of a shocker to me. I never know whether that's Vegas trying to dupe people into taking the Saints or whether to reflection of the betting trends or, or what who knows, but bottom line, it seems like a little much. That doesn't mean I'm taking the Saints as a best bet to cover. We're going to take a break. We'll do our best bets, whatever they may be when PFTPM and Chris Simms on button continue right after this. Welcome back to the PFTPM, Chris Simms on button picks, podcast delivered by Little Caesar's, the official pizza sponsor of the NFL. Pizza, pizza. Okay. We disagree on three straight up two against the spread best bets time. Christopher, you're up. Well, I mean, I did think about Packers and I did think about jets. I will say that, but I don't trust them enough here. First one I'm going to go with and I haven't done this all year, but I'm going with the over in the Ravens bangles game. I think that's going to be a high scoring affair. The 49 point total is too much. I have a total of, what is it, 62 points and yeah, I think it goes over. I have decided this week that my approach is going to be fade dysfunction. If you're a dysfunctional team currently, you are a team that I am going to pick against in my best bets. And for my first installment, I'm going to go with the Patriots giving one to the dolphins who are a hot mess right now. Wow. All right. I see you there. All right. That's, that's, I'm, I like that one. That's interesting there. I see where your head's at. All right. My next one here, I'm going with the 49ers. I am 49ers. I think are is a big game. Yeah. They're back to two one two. They got to continue the positive momentum. I think they'll run the ball at will against Arizona. I do Brock Purdy's been awesome and I don't, I don't like what I'm seeing from Arizona's offensive receiver. There's given four to the hot mess that is the Carolina Panthers as the fading dysfunction tour continues. Wow. I like this. Wow. You're, I like your angle this week. I'm going with the Saints. Okay. I'm picking them to beat the Chiefs. Five and a half is too much anyways. I feel very comfortable about that. I'm going Saints. I'm tempted to take the Colts getting three against the Jaguars, but you never know if they're going to get their shit together. So I'll fade the dysfunction in Las Vegas Broncos at home given two and a half to the Raiders. Okay. Those are mine. Wow. All right. All right. Who are you going with dead in the gutter? 40 Niners given seven to the Cardinals. I am and not that we do it against the spread, but the one team that we would take straight up if we were dying in a gutter and we are dead in the gutter multiple times this year. We both like the 49ers. Yup. I do too. I did last week was the first week I survived and got out of the gutter. So I'm happy to be there. We'll try to stay out of the gutter game to screw you and I'll see you later. This episode is brought to you by Opel, the first over-the-counter daily birth control pill available in the U.S. Opel is FDA approved full prescription strength and estrogen free. Plus there's no prescription needed. Finally, the days of needing a prescription for birth control are over. Opel is available online and at most major retailers. Take control of your health and reproductive journey with Opel. Birth control in your control. 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