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Bitcoin avoids 'Septembear' drop with 7% rise but October brings more volatility - Crypto Roundup

Proactive’s Crypto Analyst, Billy Farrington, talked with Stephen Gunnion about the surprising strength in Bitcoin’s performance throughout September. Traditionally a challenging month for crypto, the so-called ‘Septembear’ market saw Bitcoin defy expectations by rising approximately 7% against the US dollar. Farrington attributes this positive movement to a weakened dollar and a substantial 50 basis-point rate cut by the US Federal Reserve, which helped sustain demand for Bitcoin throughout the month.

However, Farrington also touched on recent fluctuations as Bitcoin began to lose ground at the start of October. “Tensions in the Middle East and large-scale Bitcoin ETF outflows have increased uncertainty, causing a brief downturn,” he noted.

Despite these concerns, ongoing institutional moves toward blockchain technology bring optimism. Swift and Visa both announced initiatives aimed at integrating blockchain into their operations, potentially reshaping financial transactions globally. Farrington clarified the difference between public and private blockchains, suggesting that these initiatives, while exciting, don’t equate to a broad crypto adoption.

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Broadcast on:
04 Oct 2024
Audio Format:
other

Hello, you're watching the crypto round-up on proactive Jordan, me as usual with all the latest news affecting Bitcoin and other cryptos, proactive is Billy Farrington. Billy, good to speak with you again. Looking at the Bitcoin chart, it didn't appear to be a September market after all. What's your take? Yes. Hello, Stephen. Always a pleasure. You're right. It has not been at September. And that's not me with a weird inflection in my voice. I'm saying September with a B.E.A.R. So, historically, September has been the worst month on record for Bitcoin, hence the term September, the very clunky term that I love to use. So, there was a wide expectation that Bitcoin was going to have a pretty dodgy month that just was. And that absolutely did not happen. It was actually quite a strong one for Bitcoin. It ended the month about 7% higher against the US dollar. So, a very strong September for Bitcoin, potentially one of the best on record. But, you know, I would have to go back and sort of look debut into that. But nonetheless, it was a good month. And some pretty obvious reasons why Bitcoin fared well. In September, obviously, there was a weak US dollar throughout the month. And that's obviously what you price Bitcoin against. So, there was that Jumbo interest rate cut from the Federal Reserve on the 18th, if I remember correctly. 50 basis point interest rate cut. And that's obviously just technically speaking, sent the dollar value lower. And that benefited Bitcoin. Simple as that, really. And, yeah, I guess the interest rate cut from the US Federal Reserve, more or less just spurred a lot of positive risk sentiment. In general, across the risk asset space, whether that's crypto and equities. So, yeah, a good one for Bitcoin. However, the last couple of days, we have seen quite a pretty strong reversal from that. On the 30th of September, actually, it dipped a few percentage points. And that has continued for the rest of this week. So, it looks like the party could be coming to a close. However, you never know with Bitcoin markets. Just as I speak now, we're seeing a bit of a recovery because the US stock market is looking strong in the pre market. But, yes, very much objectively speaking, that strong September has turned into a bit of a dodgy one over the last couple of days. I mean, this time last week, Bitcoin was in 66 K and it's down about, it's down from more than 5% from that at the time being. So, why have we seen that strong fall in recent days, Billy? Yeah, well, obviously, we've seen it flaring up of tensions in the Middle East. You've got Israel potentially launching strikes on Lebanon and just these very heightened geopolitical tensions and, you know, it's creating a lot of uncertainty as to what's going to happen. And globally speaking, and the markets, especially the risk markets, don't particularly like uncertainty. So I guess we have just seen a bit of reversal because of that. So, to make matters worse, we saw some pretty large scale exchange traded fund outflows, large scale Bitcoin exchange traded fund outflows, and that has just made sentiment even worse. On Tuesday alone, for instance, we saw about $240 million pulled from the Bitcoin ETF space. And that did continue over the last couple of days as well. There's uncertainty about what's going to happen in the US elections as well. And I think, you know, gold is just really strong right now. That seems to be the safe haven asset of choice at the moment for this week, at least anyway. But as I said, US pre-markets this Friday are looking pretty strong. So, you know, in a couple of hours time and might be a completely different look altogether. We'll have to wait and see about it. Okay, so I'm not a great week so far for Bitcoin, but it has been a big week for institutional blockchain adoption by the looks of the billy. Yeah, totally has been to the biggest cogs in the global payment machines, so to speak, have made some big announcements on integrating blockchain technology into their procedures swift. You know, which is sort of the society of normalizing global transactions and whatnot. They said they're going to begin conducting live trials in digital asset and currency transactions using blockchain tech in 2025. Then visa just just at the same time, visa said it is launching a token, a visa tokenized asset platform, which is intending to use blockchain to help banks facilitate cross border transfers and currency transfers and all these sorts of things. So yeah, some two really big announcements in terms of institutional blockchain adoption. But I will caution people to take this sort of thing to be a bit more, you know, I guess, put it, we'll put it this way, Steve, and there is a difference between private and public and private blockchains, you know, the blockchain is often synonymous with Bitcoin, because it is, it is the technology that underpins Bitcoin itself, but Bitcoin is a public blockchain, meaning anybody, whether that's you, me or a large institution can help contribute to the to the network and earn money accordingly for the, you know, the rewards that they get from earning the network and that's what makes Bitcoin this decentralized currency, this decentralized global trustless currency that we have today. Now, these institutions, they're launching private blockchains. That means not everybody can contribute to the consensus of the network. It's going to be highly selective and highly curated. So it is in many ways like the antithesis of what Bitcoin, you know, Bitcoin's found in principles. And of course, people are against thinking that these massive corporations integrating blockchain pivoting towards crypto, it's not necessarily the case. Billy, as usual, thank you very much for your insights. Have a great weekend. All right, all the best. Bye.