Ready to pop the question? And take advantage of 30% off? The jewelers at Blunile.com have got sparkled down to a science, with beautiful lab-grown diamonds worthy of your most brilliant moments. Their lab-grown diamonds are independently graded and guaranteed identical to natural diamonds. And they're ready to ship to your door. Go to Blunile.com to get 30% off, select lab-grown diamonds. That's Blunile.com for 30% off lab-grown diamonds. Blunile.com He stats you need to know coming out of five weeks of NFL action here. I am Chad Parsons and let's kick off with a big one here at the quarterback position. I want to go over Jordan Love. Not necessarily a deep dive, but a part of his profile. Because underrated he is as we look at the landscape of Dynasty. Quarterbacks and Jake Daniels has been a rising Phoenix, he has lapped guys like Patrick Mahomes, even Lamar Jackson, but especially Jordan Love, who currently sits QB678 somewhere in that zone for the marketplace of Dynasty quarterback. Well, Jordan Love has a stat that basically I'm calling Mahomes a Josh Allen type stat here when looking at guys that basically there's not one hit wonders on this list. There are not fugazis or fakers on this list. And frankly, with quarterback, all we want to do is find stability, security, and also have quality upside with that security of just not having questions of are they good? Is this a pathway that leads to a cornerstone Dynasty asset? That's essentially the question we handle on a daily monthly and annual basis in our Superflex Dynasty leagues. So with Jordan Love, the stat is, and this is one thing that really stuck out for how he's playing this year, but also to a lesser degree, how he was playing last year. And that is two links and two connected pieces of information here for their PFF profile. And that would be looking at them being being able to navigate pressure. So that key stat is pressure to sack rate. So the number of times they get pressure and then off of that, how many times in those situations are they sacked? Then the other piece is average depth of target. So the ability or the frequency in which they push the ball down the field, not being a check down Charlie, and this is their ability to use all zones of the field, make them defend every blade of grass as the phraseology goes. So for Jordan Love, this year, he is at 85 percentile. So this is a historical and the PFF era number, not his specific percentage and pressure to sack. He's 85th percentile and pressure to sack. He's also 86 percentile and ADOT. So what that means is he's avoiding sacks, but he's not doing it primarily or solely in the means of checking the ball down. And so he's getting the ball out, but he's also having a good blend of pushing the ball down the field, attacking defenses, creating and fostering big plays within the offense. So you look at those two data points. And even if we soften the filter to 60% or higher in both categories, again, it's not super common. You don't get many names at most you get two or three names in a given year that hit these thresholds. Well, looking at 2024, the only two quarterbacks on this list at 60% or higher in pressure to sack percentile grade, as well as average depth of target, we have Jordan Love, who's only played a small portion of the season so far. And then we have Josh Allen. Those two are the only qualifiers this year. Last year, you want to know the only qualifiers. It was Josh Allen and it was Jordan Love. The other one was a quarterback that came in later in the season. He was an absolute dynamo assassin for his team that made a playoff push and that's Joe Flacco. Those were the only call qualifiers in 2023. 2022, Josh Allen. 2021, Josh Allen. 2020, Josh Allen and Tom Brady. 2019, we had Dak Prescott, Matthew Stafford. We had Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning. Metro Mahomes has been on this list. There are not fakers on this list. If you make this list, you are absolutely unequivocally one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. And Josh Allen has been repetitively on this list as the dynasty quarterback won. But Jordan Love is still not getting his due and credo as one of the elite quarterbacks. You can say valuing a guy at QB 6, 7, 8, 9, whatever in dynasty is valuing him as an elite quarterback. I would say no. I would say that that is undercutting what Jordan Love is doing here. And I look back and so he qualified in 2023. And then in 2024, again, he's even better in this category. And this is a key stat because, again, you are looking at someone who avoids sacks and you were looking at someone that challenges a defense to all zones of the field. And so many quarterbacks have flaws in at least one of these areas consistently in their career. When you really start looking at it, when you start looking at these profiles over and over again. So the fact that Jordan Love, the two seasons he's actually played, the one season and then now a partial season, he has qualified in both in both years. That is a huge feather in the cap because so many quarterbacks have not come remotely close in that regard. And looking especially at 2024, it's in have a have nots. Essentially, you know, if you are pushing the ball down the field, you're having trouble avoiding sacks and vice versa. For example, someone like Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert, Kirk Cousins. These are examples of quarterbacks that are avoiding sacks in pressure situations at an above average level historically. Yet we look over and their ADOT is in the bottom 40% historically of the PFF sample size. Bed Online is the world's most trusted betting platform and your number one source for everything football. Bed Online has every stat, every matchup and even live odds and spreads to bed on during the games. Think you know your stuff? Get in for our $200,000 mega contest and pick five games against the spread every week for your chance to win prizes and a share of $200,000. When the game's over, head on over to our online casino and get in on a game of Blackjack or Ochre or unwind with one of our over 150 slot games. Head to the website today to get in on the action. Bed Online, the game starts here. So again, they are dealing with avoiding pressure by checking the ball down. They are dealing by, again, not pushing the ball, not finding those one-on-one matchups, not challenging defenses to the utmost extent. And then again, if you have quarterbacks that are challenging defenses, you generally are not having them avoid pressure enough. Examples of that are Dak Prescott this year, Tyler Murray. We also have Sam Darnold, Trevor Lawrence. These are quarterbacks that have high above average ADOT, yet they are not avoiding the pressure to sack that key aspect. So they are eliciting negative plays in addition to pushing the ball down the field, challenging defensive backs, forcing them to cover or commit DPI's and other negative plays for the defense. So they are challenging defenses, but they are not avoiding sacks. They are high-variance quarterbacks in terms of the outcome when pressure is slated, free snap as the read, or it is imminent within the play. And so I think, again, what bucket, and then there are quarterbacks that are struggling on both sides of this, where they are not challenging the defense and they are not avoiding sacks. And that is the ultimate worrisome scenario in terms of either weapons around them, and the offensive line forcing them into these sub-optimal situations, or they may just not have the wiring to get themselves out of pressure in that manner. So, again, the Jordan Love stat really is the Josh Allen stat. And Lamar Jackson just misses on this one, so he is probably one of the best of the rest, if you will. This year, Derek Carr is another one that is higher than most to assume. And actually, again, small sample size, but Anthony Richardson is one that is a very soft, soft, barely, you know, inside the door of maybe qualifying when we get a bigger sample size here. He is obviously pushing the ball down the field at a high level, and he avoids sacks. So what I would say is if we are future casting of this, and right now we have Jordan Love coming out of 2023, continuing into 2024, to become, you know, that, again, there aren't a lot of fakers on this list, as I mentioned. And basically, there are not. So at minimum, you're going to be a rock solid NFL starter, and if not, a high-level upside guy. And Anthony Richardson is the small sample size one of this list of saying he could be next. And the other thing I would say is Joe Flacco is also on this list. So the Colts doing things right. They have two guys that are assassins on this list in terms of high variance and avoiding enough sacks to actually bring that average depth of target, that challenging of the defenses down the field, where we're seeing more and more shell coverage, we're seeing more and more, we're going to make you play under this umbrella. Well, we're seeing some quarterbacks eschew that and say, no, that is not going to be the way we play. We're going to figure out ways to get downfield shots to make vertical aggression plays within our offense. And again, the Colts are doing that, both of their quarterbacks are seeing that within their profile early on this season. We're seeing Jordan Love, and again, we're seeing it to some lesser degree and some, you know, not totally qualifying out of Derek R. Lamar Jackson of the Notables editions on this list. Another key stat I wanted to share is obviously the high-end, high-end filter, where we're looking at their optimization in terms of earning and gaining and securing targets, as well as what they produce on a per-route basis in terms of yards. I've said before, the average threshold here for the top 10 tight-end producers historically, you know, at the position, is 1.7 yards per route run and then 21% target per route run. So those two figures, 1.7, 21%. And last year, just to give a historical example here, we had no fakers. We had no small sample size guys. This is not filtering based on routes per game. Just those two numbers. And here was the list. We had six qualifiers. We had Trey McBride, Mark Andrews, David Najoku, Sam Laporta, Travis Kelsey, and TJ Hockinson. Absolutely, no fakers on that list. All of them produced at least 10.7 fantasy points per game. And all of them finished well at the position. And so, again, earning targets and then producing on the targets. Those are the two key aspects and it makes it very easy. Now, we're five weeks into the season. And so there is -- and, you know, four with some of these teams already securing a buy. So, again, this is going to be -- I'm going to go from the obvious guys that are actually seeing a good amount of routes to the less so obvious. And there's actually one key name on this list that I wanted to mention. Okay, so starting out with the obvious. The obvious examples here in 2024 is we have George Kittle. So he has enjoyed some time. He also has three touchdowns, which is funny because the rest of this list combined has two touchdowns. So, George Kittle at tight end one shouldn't be all that surprising because he qualifies in both of these markers and he has three touchdowns through the opening weeks of the season. So, George Kittle is a no-nonsense qualifier at 1.88 and 24%. The next one is Dallas Goddard. Now, he's enjoyed multiple games without AJ Brown and Devonta Smith. I want to monitor this closely because he's teetering it. It's like 21% target per route run, and that's a number that if that softens to 18, 19%, it's going to be really difficult for him to hang on. And when you add strong, wide receivers to an offense that right now, Jalen Hurst is not playing overly well. A second one, Barclay, is a notable addition at running back cornerstone element of that run game, more so than DeAndre Swift and some of these previous examples. So, Dallas Goddard is the one that I'm not really buying it right now. He offsets some of this target gaining with maybe a few touchdowns, you know, three or four touchdowns over the next two months. That will help Dallas Goddard's case currently at zero, so he's getting through on yards, earning targets, and again, he's always been a relatively efficient player in his career. However, he's a 19% career target per route run guy. So, this is not commonplace to him. The next one is Brock Bowers, and Brock Bowers is doing unnatural things for rookie tight ends here. He's only running 28 routes, so there's actually upside beyond this, but you have to love the 25% target per route run. He has one touchdown. He's able to produce big plays at the position, which is not super common for tight ends. And so, all wheels are up on Brock Bowers. Here in the early weeks, he qualifies easily. He actually qualifies in the top three average threshold at the position in both categories as well. Another one that is relatively obvious, if you've listened to me talk about him on some of the UTH Premium shows in the opening month of the season, but it is Jake Ferguson. And Jake Ferguson's at 1.85 and 24%. He's running 31 routes per game. Brandon Cooks being out. That's only going to help Jake Ferguson here. And Jalen Colbert, I don't think that's going to be a sustainable thing. He had a monster game in the comeback win over the Steelers, but Jake Ferguson is one that zero touchdowns. He's still averaging 11 points per game, and he's doing it on very sustainable numbers here. So I think Jake Ferguson has a really good chance to finish in the top three, but at worst, the top five or six of the position this year with others miring, but also Jake Ferguson thriving in the opening weeks of this season. This is a mini meditation guided by Bombas. Repeat after me. I'm comfy comfy. I'm cozy cozy. I have zero blisters on my toes, blisters. And that's because I wear Bombas. The softest sucks underwear and t-shirts that give back. One purchased equals one donated. Now go to Bombas.com/listen and use code "listen" for 20% off your first purchase. That's B-O-M-B-A-S.com/listen and use code "listen" at checkout. The other ones that I'm going to mention here are more ancillary, and I will say the Cincinnati Bengals actually have two qualifiers on this list. Now they're basically siphoning away from each other, so I wonder if we can get a consolidation of this role, specifically for one Eric All Jr. And I think that is the play. We have Mike Disicki right now running 20 routes per game. He's averaging seven points per game, and he's barely hitting these thresholds, 1.76 and 21%. So that to me is not the interesting point. Disicki has been on the streaming radar in the opening four or five weeks of the season, but again, I don't think he's going to ultimately run enough routes, even at his peak powers, to matter all that much. To Higgins being back, that might squash a lot of other things I'm saying from a market share and band with perspective on this passing offense for Cincinnati. But let's switch over to Eric All. So Eric All is a day three rookie, and up until week five, you know, didn't continue, but he had three straight games of four catches. And that's on, you know, for the season now, running 11 routes per game, but at 1.7 yards per route run, and here's the key part, 26% target per route run. Now, sometimes you get small sample size guys that are end up thriving just because they're rarely on the field, but when they are, you know, defenses need to watch out and that they're actually going to be a feature element in those specific situations. They might be the first or second read on a play. Now, for Eric All, week five, his route participation is total number of routes run moved up by 48% over his seasonal average here. And so, that is a key that he is moving up. Mike is sick. He only went up 19%. So we're talking about a situation where Mike Gisicki did not rise just like as much as Eric All rose when they started running more routes as a team. So I think Eric All is a key here because he's more of a more of a traditional tight end. Only 21% of the time is he aligning in the slot compared to 62% of the time for Mike Gisicki. So the real key is if Mike Gisicki misses time, Eric All, no pun intended, is an all around tight end that is producing like this, earning targets as a day three rookie. This is very uncommon whether it be a day three tight end or a day three wide receiver, and we're seeing Eric All succeed. So he is one where I literally just sloughed him aside when we talked about rookie drafts. And again, he was a buried guy. He's a day three tight end. His profile is okay coming out of college, but not elite. And you put all those things together and you say, why would you draft that guy in round three around four rookie drafts? I would rather see, you know, four or five, six guys of that ilk all kind of completely go by the wayside, do nothing as a rookie. We can always circle back. But if there's one that glimmers, I'm okay paying a little more to kind of get into the ecosystem and buy a few shares. And that's the case here with Eric All, where yes, he's an injury away. There's no standalone value here. But he's a relevant tight end too that is producing well where Mike Gisicki is one that's playing enough to say that he's going to end up ceding time. And if he misses time, Eric All is one. He's already showing good, a good backbone profile to say that he's going to end up producing with extended time and with his routes going from 10 or 11 to say 20 to 25. All of a sudden, we're looking at someone very relevant in premium formats to end up being a streamer or more. The other key player that came up on this list is week five breakout, Charlie Kohler, who are there for Baltimore. He's the other tight end that's not named Mark Andrews or Isaiah likely. The thing I would highlight with Charlie Kohler is that his profile and now for his career and he's played three seasons. What's funny is he's been on this list twice and not many people view him as as a player that has much appeal in any regard, but he should. You know, for leagues where you play and it's very preemptive with stashing, you know, deeper tight ends with quality profiles, Charlie Kohler came out and he basically played one game. In 2022, he put up 1.81 yards per route run and 22% target per route run. So he qualified on this list back in 2022 and 2024. Again, he's only running three routes per game, but he's he's running six yards per route run, 40% target per route run. And again, it's not so much about that, but we have seen a proclivity for him to produce sporadic big plays. And I would say it doesn't mean a whole lot except that we're seeing this offense produce multiple guys at the tight end position that have been viable. Many people out there, not myself included, have Mark Andrews and their, you know, their pitchforks out and there's trouble here in the water. Also, Isaiah likely, how long is he going to be on the team? Are they going to be able to retain him in the macro view because Charlie Kohler was a player that I liked going back in time to the 2022 profile. A reminder, Charlie Kohler was drafted ahead of Jake Ferguson. And again, take out the roles. We're just looking at the players. He was drafted ahead of Jake Ferguson, ahead of Isaiah likely, ahead of Chico Coquo as notable players there on the earlier side of day three. He was drafted right behind Kate Otton, Daniel Bellinger, we're still waiting on Jeremy Ruckert, for example, to produce, but I do like him a little bit as well. And Charlie Kohler coming out of Iowa State, his athleticism score, 79% in my model and a 93% production score. So, Charlie Kohler, we're talking about a very established player. He ran 4'6" at 6'7", 248 pounds. And here's the other part, highly productive. I mentioned the 93% production score. In 42 career games, he averaged 51 yards per game, which doesn't sound like a lot in wide receiver land because it's not, but at tight end land, it is not all that common. For example, the only high-dens in the 2022 class to average 50 yards per game were Trey McBride, Greg Dolchich, Charlie Kohler, and Cole Turner. A lot of times you get some small swooler guys, and then obviously you get guys that are basically running their team's offense. And then he averages at least a half a touchdown per game in college. The other part, and this is one of the key things I look at at wide receiver and as well as tight end, is look at their ADOT versus their drop rate. Obviously, you want a positive number there. So, you know, if their ADOT is 6, you don't want to drop rate of 8, which means, hey, these are short targets. They're relatively easy compared to deeper targets, and you're still dropping the ball way too much. So, you have a positive or negative ratio there, and again, the higher the positive, the better it means you're getting deeper targets. Well, Charlie Kohler, 11 ADOT, which is one of the higher marks at tight end, only a 2.9% drop rate. So, that's an outstanding differential, almost two yards per round run. And just to comment on that differential, I mean, that kind of differential is what Dalton Kincade had in his career as a 2023 coming out prospect. And again, looking at 2023, no one really had that level of differential outside of Kincade, not Laporta, not Michael Mayer, not Luke Musgrave. 2024, for example, Brock Bowers' differential was not that good, not that wide. And then, let's see, Jetavian Sanders was a decent differential, Cade Stover, decent differential, Jared Wiley. All these guys, again, that have promised people are rostering them at tight end premium, and Charlie Kohler is the one that's actually producing here in the tight end three role in Baltimore. So, this isn't a stream 'em in week eight type scenario. This isn't necessarily a, you're picking up Charlie Kohler for 2024. But what this means is, going back to college, if we were just stacking things up, Charlie Kohler had one of the better profiles we've seen in the last three, four years. If we're stacking up total prospects, it doesn't matter where they were drafted, what round? That he would be right up there among the elites of the group, like a ceramic ride. Again, looking at these profiles, a Tucker craft, Sam Laporta, Dalton King Cade, this past year with Brock Bowers. Then, Senate had a pretty good profile. But again, I think he's right up there with guys that were drafted in the first round, second round of tight end premium rookie drafts. And so, the situation obviously stinks. We want more targets and more routes for Mark Andrews. We can't get enough for Andrews, likely, and Kohler. Here's the thing, what if they have three NFL starters on their depth chart? And this is a team that, when they're winning and life is good, they want to throw the ball 17 times a game. So, that's a real stinky situation for all three guys. A Hall of Fame type profile in Mark Andrews, Isaiah likely, certainly someone that you could earmark as a future NFL starter in Baltimore or somewhere else. And then, Charlie Kohler, a guy that people are not, you know, acknowledging at all and probably viewing this past game as a complete fluke. Now, converting the small number of targets and routes that he did into that level of production is a fluke. However, saying that he is not a well-built profile, dating back to Iowa State and college in general, he absolutely has one. So, this might be, and if you remember, Martell has been at SAT in a situation in Dallas as the backup for years and then ended up being a quality starter at multiple locations later in his career. So, Charlie Kohler is one that, you know, how long are they going to be able to retain them? Are they going to retain Isaiah likely? Contracts are going to become due. Now, Kohler is a much easier sell job if you're a dynasty team right now and you're like, "Hey, I'm 0-5. I'm 1-4. It's time in premium. And I'm planning a plan of my roster spots or a good chunk of my bench towards specifically 2025. Like, this season is not working out for me. I want guys to build for the future of the What If scenario. I would say, "Hey, if Andrews is out, if likely is out, either one of them, all of a sudden Kohler gets pretty interesting of let's see what he can do. Let's put some gasoline in this tank and see what he does on 15/20 routes per game." That would be pretty interesting. But we're not there. He is a dual injury away guy. But in the long term prognosis of if you have a stash spot and there's plenty of formats where it's 30 plus rosters and roster spots, you get tied in premium involved. And these are the types of players that you would be looking to stash in November, December when you have roster spots available or if you fall out of the race at any point, these are the types of players to look for. That is why I would like to highlight Carly Kohler this week and his profile going all the way back to the NFL draft in 2022 for that class because, again, we're seeing some good returns out of the day three guys from that class. But more importantly, he stacks up well of some of the top high-end prospects of any class with his profile. That's going to do it for this installment of under the helmet got Ryan Morgan on tomorrow. We're going to be talking about dynasty trading as always. So a busy week, we've got a ton of running back situations with injuries up in the air, heading into the all important practice reports and final designations as we get to the end of this week. We've got by weeks coming from players that were out in week five coming back. We've got week six buys in front of us. So this next eight weeks is really where you test your metal as a fantasy and dynasty owner because you got players in and out. At no point are you probably working in an optimal setting of having everyone available and healthy for you. So it's all about filling those holes and patch jobbing things, being active with streaming opportunities, and maximizing your decision making process with your fantasy roster spots. I'm Chad Parsons. Until next time, never settle, refuse to be average and keep building those. If you liked the show, please take a moment to rate, review and subscribe. It really does help the show to grow. Thank you for listening. (crowd cheering) You
