We're going to start off with Sam Darnold, limping into his buy, where he got off to a white-hot start, lesser so of late, and some of the questions of our folks starting to believe in Sam Darnold in the positive way, do some people believe he's turning back into a pumpkin? At a minimum, we're starting to see quarterback injuries crop up, which means in your superfledged leagues, you're going to have opportunities now to sell quarterbacks, more so here in mid-season, where you got eight, nine teams, probably vehemently pushing for the playoffs. We were three already looking for the exit door for 2025 with their record and with some of the injuries going around, but you have an opportunity here to supplement some of these stronger teams, so I would ask Ryan, were you starting to believe in Sam Darnold, or is this a viable sell window that is wide open? So, you and I have a co-one league with Sam Darnold, and we sold him when he was like after the injury to JJ, and he was named the starter. I believe it was Sam Darnold and maybe a third for two seconds, and what I like about that is that's kind of what I'm seeing him still go for, so obviously... That's crazy what the price hasn't moved upwards, even though he's five and O. He has outperformed any expectation I had. I thought there was a good chance he would get benched for performance. This just goes to show, though, what a good coaching staff, a good system, and a good supporting cast can do for a guy, right? Again, the joke I like to do, just because I like to take a dig at the Jets, is the last two comeback players of the years were both former Jets quarterbacks, so Geno Smith and Joe Flacco, and this year... I mean, he's on pace, he might be MVP through four weeks, right? So, he's definitely done more than I think. I'm kind of surprised, with your question, it all depends on price, right? Like, I'll buy or sell any player just about for price is contingent, so yeah, I'm cool selling him. I do think what's interesting, and I've had a couple of leagues like this. There's so many quarterback injuries that people are trying to just piece it together. This can be, I don't know, panics too strong up a word, but we talk about teams that just go, "Nope, I'm out of it through three to five weeks." There's a number of teams that are two and three that are like, "I traded away my first," or, "I need to compete this year for X, Y, and Z reasons that are a little panic that lose a quarterback." And so, if you have an extra quarterback and can capitalize on the right situation, look at the other teams, try to think of it from the other owner's perspective of what they're looking for and what they're worried about. And then, yeah, obviously, for the right price, I'll sell anybody. So, Sam Darnold is found money more or less. We weren't expecting him. He was a guy that we had as a primary backup last year on our roster out in San Francisco and the fact that he's now going for things. Cool. Let's at least know what he's going for and shop around and see if it fits our teams that we have him on. Yeah, a couple pieces of information here, so on my GFF data sheet, so this goes back and grades guys through the entire PFF era. He's slightly above average in passing grade, which I think would surprise folks. They think the hot start, they think 5 and 0, they think all those weapons. But he's just been, I would say, similar to his best seasons that we've seen in him playing a decent amount. Like, he had a season that was with the giant, excuse me, that was with the Jets. He's had a couple seasons in the 50s and he's at 50% to 7% this season. The concerning part is pressure to sack. Like, he is very reactive to pressure. He's in the bottom 25% of that category. He is pushing the ball down, but he is making some bad decisions. He's holding the ball as time to throw is really high. So you're looking at all these phases where you say, okay, his passing grade is okay, but he's reactive to pressure. He's holding the ball and his turnover-worthy play rate is below average. So you say all those things, it is creeping into his game and these numbers were higher two or three weeks ago. So, to say that he's evolving back into a pumpkin to some degree, I think there is risk for that. Now, I do think the risk for him getting healthy, yanked for Nick Mullins goes down because they have a positive record. I think it will take more than one horrific game of three or four interceptions or something. But I think the team that the defense played a lot better earlier than they have the last week or two and they're going into a buy, there's a lot of reasons to say, you have a nice pause button here to invite and compass these injuries in your league like you said and supplement these teams that are especially in the middle part of your standings that you have this week where he's not going to play. It could be a refresher, you have another week where there could be a key quarterback injury, so week six and then I would say end of week seven. So, you have this next like 10 days where you don't get another data point for Sam Darnell that I think that's going to be key in terms of this is a nice window because like you said and like we alluded to, the place that we sold for side on scene of like we don't want to know how this roller coaster ride goes. We didn't have to take the risk and yet the price isn't much different in terms of what you're trying to get out of a cell trade. And a couple examples, you kind of mentioned a couple seconds. That's still on the table this week, you know, as a potential sell. Another one that I want to get your opinion on. So, I mean, this would be perfect for a team that's like one and four and you got Sam Darnell, Sam Darnell and a second from DJ McCarthy. So, you would have killed and make that trade back in July or August or at rookie draft time. And now you are able to get that done because again, the most likely scenario is Sam Darnell's playing somewhere else in McCarthy is going to be the starter for the Vikings and we're going to get this opportunity next year. Yeah. And if you look for spikes, I mean, just like a stock market mentality, if you look for, all right, it was this, you know, in the off season going into the season before the injury, probably going to be back to that next year. This is just a spike that, like you said, is an outlier that you can get into JJ in the long term fantasy asset. We like to, we talk about the micro just because you can move on spikes or buy on dips and stuff like that. But in the long term, we're trying to build out these long profiles. So, I absolutely love it. He was, JJ was going probably 107 on average this year. And kind of like a penics, you know, once he's back in, once he's the starter, everything that we're seeing positive about Sam Darnell, who I believe only has one year allegiance on contract type thing, you know, I think everything positive as far as coaching and situation goes right into JJ. So I love that. Bed Online is the world's most trusted betting platform and your number one source for everything football. Bed Online has every stat, every matchup and even live odds and spreads to bet on during the games. Think you know your stuff? Get in for our $200,000 mega contest and pick five games against the spread every week for your chance to win prizes and a share of $200,000. When the game's over, head on over to our online casino and get in on a game of Blackjack or Ochre or Unwind with one of our over 150 slot games. Head to the website today to get in on the action. Bed Online, the game starts here. The running back we're going to feature here is, and I think we talked about a couple things over the course of the first five, six weeks of the season of this ilk. The tank Bigsby is the next new girl basically of the backup or 1B, however you want to phrase ology, you know, put that in there for running back landscape. And so Bigsby is now elevating himself to an elite injury away price point. There's some people, and again, the idea that he's going to elevate and actually take the job is a key mental aspect here when you talk about valuing running backs because the job, very important, enough talent and pedigree to hold the job. That's really nice too. But when you get in season and people start to buy caries, people start to buy rolls, you have to be careful about the price you're paying because tank Bigsby is still, I mean, this is an evolving situation for Jacksonville. But my analysis of this is basically, Travis ETN, I don't think they're sharing like that he's playing through an injury, and a lot of times again, he's the first round guy. He's highly insulated in this regard. You can have varying opinions on ETN. What's it ceiling? How great of a player is he or is he a, you know, just a guy or anything in that spectrum? But around one guy overtly in his prime, just losing his job to around three guy or just to someone else on the depth chart is so unlikely that in my opinion, this drop down, it creates uncertainty for lineup, certainly. But I think that you have to be careful of assuming that the end is coming and this is going to be a full changeover. That is very, very rare. And we have an injury attached to this where he's exited gains and people are, you know, screaming from the rooftops. I don't understand and all of this, but if you were in the building and you probably would understand, they want to get something out of them. And if something, you know, goes a little haywire, they're probably being on the safer side of just like, well, there's no reason to have him play through this, you know, and he's trying to play every single week. And that's why you're seeing the market share Wayne a little bit and they have a hot hand and take a ski who's been running well. I would point it out. He's not running many routes and he's not that involved in the passing game. And he's doing it almost jerry may make a little style of, you know, he's seeing these touches and he's happening to break longer runs in a, you know, in a secondary role of that, of that backfield. Yeah, and that this was a pop game. I mean, the over under here, the matchups here, you know, these were the two worst kind of past defenses. They're both rough defenses and the over under here, it scored over 70 points. So it doesn't surprise me that he had a pop game. He hasn't really done a ton in other games. I know going back a year ago, we liked his profile because of where he was going in rookie drafts and picked him up. And then he kind of didn't do anything as rookie year. And we moved on from him or just, you know, we weren't getting anything and he's still on at roster. But this year, I think he really, really showed up really got his head squared away training camp and everything you'd showed that he put the work in in the off season and stuff like that. And so yes, but what you're saying is, yes, ETN is battling through it, looking at the reception box score and stuff like that this week. ETN is definitely the pass catcher, which is what we want. And it just when you have an outlier game like this, you got to be a little careful about going after, Hey, the back of running back average 7.8 yards a carry and had two touchdowns, right? Like, that hasn't happened in any game before. If ETN's out, maybe it still happens, but ETN's still getting, you know, seven targets in the passing game to Big's piece one. And so he's still going to be the guy you want. Now, depending again, everything comes down to price, what can we get for him, which is what we're discussing here. So he did have a hot guy game. He did have a let's, you know, spike and people he popped on Red Zone. They're looking at him like, Oh, is he the next? Is he about to overtake ETN? I think our take on it is pump the brakes outside of injury on him, overtaking ETN. And at the same time, like when you have a guy that pops like this in a game with this much scoring, you at least poke around and see what you can get for him or where you can go with him. Big's B for two seconds. Yeah. Yes, that's if that's what he's going for. You can also go look around and see what you can get player wise, you know, but yeah, he's he's the perfect guy to throw into a trade. I'm going to look ahead. If two seconds is kind of the equivalent he's going for, I'm taking that, especially if I can cherry pick them. Remember what you can do with seconds, whether it's on the clock, trading for veterans and your rookie draft, or if it's, you know, these first few weeks of the season when teams are out of it and trading for veterans. So yeah, I would probably be taking that depends on the team. I'm looking ahead on your trades here though, but like Lawrence and Big's B for May or just using him in some of that two for one type things. I think he's a perfect opportunity to do that if you can get someone who values him as high as two seconds. I think it's interesting like, you know, finding a Big's B for a first is not super likely. However, if you can do it in the aggregate money ball style, like Big's B and a second for Michael Pinnock's and a third. Pinnock's has the ability to be worth a first, even if he isn't, say, today in your particular league or setting. So that's something to consider adding, adding to jail and right to Big's B and Bolton to get a first and a third. So that's, you know, a situation where you're packaging stuff together. That's a perfect use of Big's B worth of use of Dalton, you know, and able to pack a jump and get that first round pick. And the one thing I was thinking about is, you know, when you get a good class like next year is going to be pretty strong and wide receiver, there's going to be, I think, depth at the quarterback position in Superflex and it's going to be really strong at running back. And what that means is you get a couple seconds and even if you don't trade those away, let's think about the profile that you might or hope to get is with one of those seconds you might be getting just want to tank Big's B like players. You might even get a day two running back that has that isn't blocked by a search strong running back right in front of them on that depth chart for the foreseeable future. You might get someone with some actual growth and developmental opportunities for the lead role in relatively short order or behind a much weaker profile than Travis ETN. So that's why, you know, playing this game out. And the last one I wanted to ask you about was Big's B for Rico Daudel in a second. So you probably prefer two seconds, but you are getting a one A back plus a second. I think assuming everyone's healthy, you know, ETN's healthy and stuff like that, I think Daudel will outscore him. And you're getting a second. Now I don't think Daudel's the long term asset, but like you said with the two seconds. The one thing I will say when I was listening through is also when you're on the clock, you know, we had let's say six guys this last year that we really wanted to be within that line. And so we had say 109 as a pick. You can go from 109 up to 106 and get within your line with that second. And that's hugely profitable, right? So getting your guy that you believe in that is the most likely metrics to hit with that second can be a big deal. Pennics is just going to be there will be a time. I can't imagine it not where he even before he starts again, if he's named the starter or cousins goes down or something like that, he'll be worth a first plus. So that's that's an easy one to get up to a first, I think. And then obviously when you're seeing like that one was big to be in a second for Pennics in a third, just the reminder we're going to do every year. If it's non super flex and non tight and premium, the first or you know that second is going to be worth less than in tight and premium super flex or even super flex is somewhere in the middle. So and then also where the teams are, we're starting to get a picture, you can kind of see, okay, where's this team going to finish? And I really put them in two buckets, it's just there's the playoff teams, there's the non playoff teams in my league, and I value those two very differently. So you could cherry pick, hey, I'm giving away a second, you know, that I think is a playoff second, getting back a non playoff third or something like that in that deal. So with those things all in there, big speed for two seconds though. And then what that not just, hey, I'm going to go take two seconds for big speed, which in a vacuum, cool what you can get with that or and then you said doubt a lot. We always talk about LG or I'm thinking of just some of those other backups that you can pivot to, right? That I would think LG or as a higher ceiling, if the starter goes out, then big speed. This episode is brought to you by Progressive Insurance. You chose to hit play on this podcast today, Smart Choice. Progressive loves to help people make smart choices. That's why they offer a tool called Auto Quote Explorer that allows you to compare your Progressive car insurance quote with rates from other companies. So you save time on the research and can enjoy savings when you choose the best rate for you. Give it a try after this episode at progressive.com, Progressive Casualty Insurance Company and affiliates, not available in all states or situations. Prices vary based on how you buy. Bombas makes the most comfortable socks, underwear and t-shirts. Warning, Bombas are so absurdly comfortable you may throw out all your other clothes. Sorry, do we legally have to say that? No, this is just how I talk and I really love my Bombas. They do feel that good and they do good too. One item purchased equals one item donated. To feel good and do good, go to bombas.com/listen and use code listen for 20% off your first purchase. That's BOMBAS.com/listen and use code listen at checkout. Yeah, absolutely on that one. Nico Collins, so he's going to be a key player. I'm a good one to bring up this week because we have a rocket ship profile, one that confirmed the massive breakout that he had a year ago. The thing that was missing with his profile was more routes. He went from 27-28 routes per game last year. He's up to 32 and that even includes the partial game that he played this past week. I was up even higher than that. If you take out the partial, fortunately, he scored 14-15 points there. He had a long touchdown. Before he got out of there in a truck match-up, I thought it was one of the keys of the week was his Nico Collins match-up proof. He was well on his way and I came to saying yes. The fact that he played just a smattering of routes there and he ended up producing a quality game where a lot of times injuries derail things and you end up getting a down game. But right now, we have a window with Nico Collins. He's probably going to miss at least a week, maybe a couple. Again, you know how hamstrings go and they're tricky and he might be out of month. I mean, I might not be the projection from Houston right now, but the fact that he's out of sight out of mind, I want to miss the pause button on maybe the hype getting even stronger. Now, he is up to the dynasty top 10 wide receivers by market value. That is absolutely appropriate and he should be there. I was actually looking for the show here and looking at so guys that go over three yards per route run and 25% target per route run. Again, these are monster numbers and what's funny is the last two years. Nico Collins is the only guy currently in 23 and 24 to hit both seasons. We have her she rice this year. He's also on the shelf. Last year, we had Tyree Kill. That's basically the whole list. So, I mean, within an argument to say right now, Nico Collins is one of the top one, two, three wide receivers in the NFL based on how he's playing and the profile he's built over now, you know, 14, 15 months. So, Nico Collins is an absolute assassin profile. He's one of the few that is mid-career. You don't have a lot of age concerns, but yet he has a proven profile behind him. And you can say that that's easy to find, but really it's, you know, maybe Chase, Jefferson, CDLAM. And then let's, you know, the next name on the list is probably Nico Collins. When you start to stack this up, lead combo plus, you know, how much do we believe that they're a quality player? So, there's a very short list of guys at wide receiver and then it's kind of everybody else of like we hope they get there. They show promising signs or we hope they hold on for the next 15, 20 guys. But he's in that club of that higher group. And obviously with an injury and time off field, you have an opportunity here to explore the space of him as a potential buyer. With the caveat that obviously those soft tissue injuries can be concerning and nagging and you can get the start them and then they, you know, come out early because something catches or whatever. So, that gets a little bit tricky in the short term. But what I was struggling about is your final thoughts on the premium side last week, your question was, is Nico matchup proof? Because it was a tough matchup, right? And I wanted to text you, but I watch Red Zone and I watch everything live and stuff like that. And then I'll go back through and listen to your recap and add that to my notes on each team. And what was really funny is, as you're going through your notes, you're like, well, let's see, five routes run before you got hurt, 78 yards and a touchdown. I think he's matchup proof. Like, I was going to text you, I think he's match approved. You don't want spoilers in games because you're going through among the condensed versions and stuff like that. But that was, that was, I mean, yes, highly efficient. If you get a guy who gets hurt, this is like Anthony Richardson last year when he played five, or was it like 15 minutes or a quarter and a half or something and ended up putting up, you know, 30 fantasy points before getting hurt. I think Nico is very efficient, very good. And I have no questions about him being an elite wide receiver, not to mention that's, you know, a dome relatively gettable division. You know, he's in the division with the top two teams that give up points to wide receivers and the jags and the Colts. So that's four games going forward. And he's got the quarterback. He's got the coaching. He checks all the boxes. Love Nico. Yeah. So some opportunities will explore here. So first one, and coming off a big game, in terms of volume, he had a running back like stat line on the opposite side of this deal, we've got Nico Collins straight up for Garrett Wilson. Yes, with the caveat that we're both significantly below market on Garrett Wilson. Yeah. But it's a good, it's a good timing of, you know, a little hamstring tweak. And then you got Garrett Wilson coming off of 20 plus targets. If for some reason I'm taking over a team with Garrett Wilson, I'm absolutely doing that. Yep. Collins for P Higgins and a second. Collins read the first one. He's playing pretty well because that that's the most interesting one. Oh, I know. I'll save it. I'll save it if I carry here in discussion. But yeah, just a reminder that T Higgins is popping off a little bit in terms of his utilization, more so than previous iterations of this chase and and Higgins duo there and Cincinnati and Cincinnati, Cincinnati's white hot, you don't know. So not that I have questions about Higgins work ethic or anything, but I do worry, we talk about it is technically a negative thing when a team moves on from you. Now, this could be salary dependent and kind of owner dependent, not wanting to spend too much money on it. Generally, it's not a good thing. Yes. Generally, it's not a good thing for them. Also, do beware of the guy, like he's playing for a contract, right? He is putting everything, every second of his offseason and everything is going into, I want to show out, ball out and go get that big payday and free agency this next year, at which point, maybe his effort wanes slightly and or who knows what situation he'll go to. You see him go like the Raiders next year and all of a sudden, it's like, you know, he's he's capping out a wide receiver 35 and stuff. You're just like, where's the upside? And he took the bag. Like, it reminds me of, again, he's going to be a better version of this, but it reminds me of Kenny Galladay, like that you remember how he fell off, he had a couple injuries and all of a sudden it was like, he's out of the league, you know, before 30. And it was just, you know, what's going on here? But yet he had a massive season with Detroit, you know, before he got out of it. The perfect storm, you know, the guy like that, they can make his contested catches. He's a good in a good situation. And really, like you said, peaked in that in that contract here. And focusing on Nico Collins, though, he also got paid. Like, we know who where he's going to be. He's got the contract allegiance and stuff. It's much more predictable and like him as a player, significantly better. So. Yes, as Ryan gives me the old cheers to Nico Collins there. Yeah, the last one that we're going to mention here is a massive deal. It involves Higgins as well. Nico Collins to first and a second for CD lamb and he Higgins. So break this one down. All right. We like to talk about, okay, what players would we give up three first four? This isn't necessarily what players are worth three firsts. We value first very highly. And obviously what they can become. We're seeing this year of just the value that you're getting, if you get a, you know, neighbors, Harrison, those type of things, that can be one of those firsts. So. The players that you would be willing to give up three first four. Obviously, we would say Alan and my homes, but we're not necessarily, you know, rubber stamping any other player. So the fact that this is a first, a first and a second involved and I mean, we're probably ahead of this, but the split between lamb and Nico, I don't think it's that great. Certainly, you know, you're talking a tear. Maybe it's not. This isn't like, like I would think, okay, let's trade a first, a first, a second and Higgins for lamb and Nico. And we'd start to get to more of a fair trade, but this one just boggles my mind. I mean, Nico to lamb is enough of a wash that to say two firsts and a second for Higgins is just nuts. Well, there's plenty of situations where people wouldn't give us a first straight up for Higgins. Can you get two firsts for Higgins from even the best team in your league? I doubt it. No, no, I think a lot of people, you might be able to get a first one. So I think if you're holding Nico, would you sell Nico in a first for CD? Because I wouldn't. No, I just that's not how it's been a first. I wouldn't arbitrage wide receiver. When I'm already when I already feel like I'm good enough, I would go to Jefferson probably for that. That's Yeah, I mean, if I was a strong team, I probably do that. So the one thing I will say, though, is this is a lesson for people holding on to people like lamb and Higgins is, can you go over to Nico plus plus plus like we're talking to first? If you got Nico in two firsts for lamb and Higgins, lamb that down is just your printing money. Yeah. Yeah, big boy trades and and, you know, we outlined that. So in addition to Collins there, we're talking about lamb a little bit. We're talking about Higgins, Garrett Wilson, and you have some optionality on the on the buy sell sides of these. That's going to do it in this episode. We actually made two parts this week, just a massive recording session with Ryan Morgan. So we're going to continue with part two tomorrow on this topic, just because it's the time of year where there's a lot of trades to be made. You've got teams going in different directions and we've got enough data points where you're comfortable buying in on what you've seen this year. You've also got teams bailing because they're out of the race that they, you know, production this year is not important to them. And as I always say, I mean, when is your next most meaningful game for many people? It is literally next week, and and or your first playoff game in 2024. But for those falling out of it, it will be 2025 a week one. So that creates a very vibrant dynasty trading market and Chad Parsons for Ryan Morgan. You can find his stuff on premium side of under the helmet every single week. Until next time, never settle refused to be average and keep holding those. Bingo. All right, Phil, we're recording now. So it's live. Go ahead. Pick on me the way that you want to. Did I say that? I would say that to my son. And I mean, come on, man. Just go. This isn't CBS. All right. Be quiet for a few seconds. Why would people want to listen to the Sims complete podcast? Well, a couple things. One, if you like to see sons pick on their father, this might be the place. If you want to see a place where the father just kicks he out of his son, this will be the place. What do you like about it, Matt? Ditto father, son dynamic duo talking about the game of football that we love and share and appreciate together. And you know, hey, it's an extension of what we did, right? Growing up, I was able to watch my father play football, then obviously watch him as a broadcaster. And then he taught me the game of football and share the wisdom that he learned throughout his playing career. And you know, hey, sometimes we're full of it. And sometimes we're, we actually know a thing or two. Well, we do do a lot of research. At least I do. You, you little spotty, but you know, you're, you hang in there. It's fun. I love doing this and it's been awesome. Sims complete. Check us out wherever your podcasts are available on the Believe Network. Appreciate it. See you. If you liked the show, please take a moment to rate, review, and subscribe. It really does help the show to grow. Thank you for listening. [BLANK_AUDIO]
