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College Football Hitting The Books - Monday, October 7
(upbeat music) Classes in session, hitting the books, college football betting show on the air once again for week seven, if you can believe it. We're already at week seven in college football. Ian Cameron and Connor Mack from apparently a very hot, Las Vegas, even though it's early October. The heat has not gone away apparently in Sin City from everything. - I really, yeah, it's still warm. The mornings are starting to get a little. That's why I was wearing this jacket, but yeah, it might have to come off. Yeah, it's starting to heat up. - Seating up in college football too. I mean, my goodness, we're in October now, and the conference raises are heating up, the playoff raises are heating up. Of course now there's 12 spots available in the college football playoff. So it definitely makes for some more exciting games and more opportunity for progression, I guess, for a lot of teams that in years past, you just wouldn't see that opportunity. Where do we begin? I mean, obviously, just quickly, we always like to recap briefly on last week. The headline is all the upsets, clearly. I mean, it was definitely a week of one upset after another ranked teams going down to defeat. Now, Missouri losing a Texas A&M. I wouldn't make a big deal of that. I mean, both teams were ranked, but it was just kind of shocking that Missouri was that outclassed in that game on Saturday by Texas A&M. Certainly that's a game that stands out. How about the Arkansas Razorbacks taking out Tennessee and winning outright as a 14 point underdog in that game? Obviously a huge development there with what transpired. How about Minnesota? Row in the boat. PJ Flack might have rode the boat to saving his job, quite honestly, at least temporarily with that win against USC on Saturday night. And again, Miller Moss in the Trojan's offense, looking human away from home like they did against Michigan. And once again, that Minnesota defense really bottled them up. And once again, just like the Michigan game on the road, I don't want to hear anything about D'Anton Lin and D'Anton Lin anymore in this much improved USC defense. I don't want to hear it, shut it, okay? Michigan, the game was on the line. You gave up what? 80 yard run to Michigan in that game to Edwards to put him in the red zone and give him a chance to win and run out the clock. And then with the game on the line against Minnesota, again, couldn't get the stop that you needed to win that game against an offense. It's been very pedestrian all year too. The Minnesota Golden Goal for so. Minnesota takes down USC. Again, they were about a nine point home underdog in that game. And of course, the mother of all upset Saturday was Vanderbilt, obviously against Alabama. We sung the praises of Vanderbilt all week, last week on the show. I know we were on here, we both liked Vanderbilt. We thought it was an obvious bet against spot for Alabama coming off the win against Georgia. Not only was it a win against their rival, it was the emotional factor of it. It truly felt like that Vanderbilt game for Alabama was the emotional hangover of a lifetime. You think about everything that went into that Georgia game where you had the big lead early in the first half. You look like you were gonna run Georgia right out of Bryant Denny Stadium. And then Georgia answers back, battles all the way back, erases that huge halftime deficit, takes the lead with like two and a half minutes left. And then on the very next play, Jalen Milro finds Ryan Williams for the game winning go ahead touchdown. All the physical and emotional energy you had to exert against Georgia in that game. And they just, you could see it, there was a hangover against Vandy. And that's not to take anything all of it away from Vandy, Connor Mack. 'Cause Vandy played a very good game. The reason I thought they were dangerous is because of their offense. I think Alabama is still having nightmares of Eli Stowers right now as we speak, who absolutely torched that Alabama secondary in that game for Vanderbilt. And again, they have a very experienced quarterback in the transfer out of New Mexico State, Diego Pavia, who we thought had the acumen and the ability from the quarterback spot to engineer. Maybe not an upset like that, 'cause I certainly wasn't sold on Vanderbilt winning that game. I was just saying, you know, they can hang within three scores against a potentially emotionally hungover Alabama team. But obviously they did a whole lot more than that winning out, right? And there was nothing flooky, C-Mac. Vanderbilt was the better football team for the majority of that game. They capitalized on some Alabama mistakes and Alabama turnovers early. And obviously, Vanderbilt with, it's gonna be hard to top that. You know, right now it's the upset of the season. And I don't know if there's gonna be anything that tops it, but C-Mac, a crazy day of carnage on Saturday, this past weekend in college football. - Yeah, you know, a couple of games, I'm glad. I was on the over in that Vandy game and I had Vandy to cover, so that was nice. And right at the last minute, I took Arkansas and that came through. I had some tough losses. We're gonna hit through them. And a few more games like I just maybe should have been on. But it was still a good week. In the end, a couple of tough losses. I thought I had this over in, they had like 925 yards, North Carolina pit. But Vano, the 10 minutes left for one touchdown, nothing else, the rest of the way in that game. And having Duke up 14, 10 after three, miss a field goal late to not cover that game. Pretty awful, that should have been a cover through and through against Georgia Tech. So there's a couple of balances, but yeah, big upsets. I can't complain, it was a solid week at least for me. So I'm ready to roll. Let's get into week seven. - Yeah, no doubt, it was a pretty, Virginia, great comeback against Boston College. No question, Georgia fails to cover again versus Auburn. They still haven't covered a damn point spread this year at Georgia. That's crazy, but here we are. And Georgia's still looking for their first point spread cover of the season. So pretty crazy stuff right there from the Bulldogs. Now, some sites have them at one and four against the spread, but that one point spread cover, I think was, no, they're on four against the spread. I've got the mat. They didn't cover against anybody. Yeah, they haven't covered against anybody. Yeah, they've played, oh, sorry, Clemson. Clemson, yeah. Yeah, that's okay, one and four against the spread. Yeah, they covered against, I forgot about that. But they haven't covered since, you know, that's the problem. That Clemson game, you know, put them in a stratosphere, put them in a stratosphere rather, that just all of a sudden they haven't been able to live up to it, at least not from a point spread standpoint. But crazy, crazy Saturday of college football, a lot of fun games. How about Miami? They almost went down as well, but they rescued themselves. It's a horrible loss for Cal, horrible. They should have won that game. You know, I know Miami's explosive with Cam Ward, but that defense way too passive in the latter stages of that game. That was definitely Miami getting away with one. And that's twice the Miami Hurricanes have gotten away with a game they probably could have and should have lost the Virginia Tech game at home the week before. And then of course at Cal on Saturday. Crazy week, but now we turn the page and look ahead to week seven in college football. And yes, this week is the start of Tuesday night and Wednesday night college football. Now it will begin with conference USA and then it will become action later in the season on Tuesdays and Wednesday nights. But it's conference USA for now that we get in the middle of the week starting with Tuesday night Florida international and Liberty, Liberty, Liberty, Liberty. We've got the Liberty Flame 17 and a half point home favorites, 54 and a half being the total here in this game. Now Liberty is a team that in recent games, they have that look of a team that is starting to get their shit together. Starting slowly to resemble, you know, a large part of what we saw last year from this team, explosive offensively, able to take over with the run game, wear their opponents down. It's exactly what they did to East Carolina at their last game, 35-24 before the bi-week that they just had. Caden Salter had one of his better games at the quarterback spot. We know they've got a terrific running back and Quentin Cooley on this team. And they're able to run, they're able to throw, but run first is what they want to do. This goes back to when Jamie Chadwell was the head coach at Coastal. He's always a guy that wants offensively, have his team be able to run the football and be a run first offense. And we're certainly seeing them showing signs of getting back to that. So, you know, that by the way that East Carolina game, as fortuitous as it was for Liberty that they covered, they still got their first point spread cover in that 35-24 win against ECU. But I continue to look C-Mac at this schedule for them. Campbell, New Mexico State was one of the worst teams in FBS College of Football, UTEP, who's an absolute disaster, okay? They had the scheduling spot of a lifetime gift rat for them last week against Sam Houston. And they were inept. They were absolutely fucking inept and abysmal in that game. With a scheduled spot that was a dream spot for UTEP. And that's how bad they are right now. And, you know, Liberty played them. And then they played an East Carolina team that I'm starting to think is just not very good this year 'cause what happened to East Carolina on Saturday? Oh, yeah, they got blown out by Charlotte. Charlotte. Charlotte housed them, that East Carolina team. So I look at this Liberty schedule, and I'm saying to myself, what the fuck have you done? Nothing. They really haven't. They haven't played anybody good. They haven't beaten anybody good. Not a chance. Didn't the East team stink? These are some of the worst four teams. Well, East Carolina's not that bad, but they've totally underachieved this year. This is one of the worst schedules that I can think of to start your year, you know, undefeated like Liberty has. Campbell, New Mexico State, UTEP, and a way overrated, overhyped ECU team. Are you shitting me? That's your four, no resume? I'm not buying this team. In fact, I took a piece of FIU, Connor Mack, in this game. I like Mike McIntyre. You know, I think he's had a very, very tough job here to try to turn around a program that's been absolutely horrific before he got here. And, you know, if you want to poke holes in schedules, I'll give you that, you know, Florida International schedules, not exactly chock full of tough opponents either. You know, Central Michigan and Florida Atlantic and Monmouth and Louisiana attacking their last four games, but they did face Indiana first game of the year. Very good Indiana team, and they lost 31-7, but they covered the number in defeat. The key for Florida International is, can the run defense be good enough? I like Kiwan Jenkins. I think he's improving at the quarterback spot for this team, slowly but surely. He's cut down on his interceptions. His completion rate compared to last year has gone up. So those are all positives for FIU going into this game. But the big question is going to be, if you're going to hang in there and stay inside this number, C-Mac, it's the run defense. Because if you're not going to stop the run, you're going to have a very tough time against Liberty. And unfortunately for FIU, you know, I don't love the numbers against the runs that I'm seeing here for them. You look at so far this year, they've given up 4.7 yards per carry, 186 rushing yards per game on the ground. So it's not great by any stretch of the imagination, what we've seen from that Florida International Run defense. That is my concern here, but telling you what, you look at Liberty and the East Carolina game, they were a single digit favorite. This is still a Liberty team this year as a double digit favorite, which they are here in this game, 0-3 against the spread this year. So clearly they've been a little bit overvalued. So, you know, I don't think the matchup is the absolute best one for the Panthers in this game. The Golden Panthers have FIU, but I'm still taking the points here with FIU in this game. Again, Liberty has got one of the softest, most cream puff, 4-0 starts that you will ever see to a college football season. Campbell, UTEP, New Mexico State, those are three are awful. And even the East Carolina win, there's some shine off that win because of how East Carolina just got blown out and whipped by Charlotte over the weekend. So at Charlotte, it's not been a very good team until they played East Carolina. So I'm leading an FIU here, not just lean. I did grab a small piece of FIU plus the points. Seamak, what do you think here, FIU Liberty? - Yeah, I mean, it's just like after the pie, is this one Liberty's just gonna all of a sudden wake up? I mean, I don't think they were in the first half against East Carolina. It wasn't until the second half of that game they got going. They were down at half time. - Dude, some of these games like to see, their defense is just not there. So let even Campbell score 24, New Mexico State 24. I mean, UTEP's just so bad. I mean, they can't score more 10 points, Savannah. So yeah, it's tough for me. They still have the offense. That's what I circled you hit on. It was FIU's the run defense though. Like that's one thing Liberty should be able to do. They gave up 186. They haven't been very good for a couple of years now. They should be able to run it. And I've seen enough of Jenkins. He's been pretty clean though. He hasn't been awful. Like even that last game that cover they had against LaTeX, 17, 10, like if he does that and we get kind of this defense that I still just, I don't love this FIU defense too much either. But I can only take that by you. I'm not gonna just lay it here all of a sudden with Liberty. And maybe they show up and shine out. But this seems like, yeah, they've just cake walk through that easy schedule and these easy wins so far. They come to play. Maybe they win by four touchdowns. I gotta see some of it to believe it. - Don't forget about Liberty. This is actually a double bye week for them. They had their game canceled against App State last week because of the hurricane. So Hurricane Helene. And by the way, there's another one apparently roaring through Florida and Hurricane Milton, I think is the name of it. It's, yeah, we wish everyone well down there. It doesn't sound good at this point in time for the folks in Florida. So Godspeed and stay safe. But I'll tell you what, Florida International Liberty didn't play last week. They have not played since September the 24th. Sorry, September 21st, that game. So it's really, they've gone, I'm just doing the, I'm just looking at it here. They have gone, you know, it'll be two full weeks since they have played here. No, actually sorry. It'll be, yeah, a little over two weeks since they have played a game. So it does rust maybe creep in a little bit. This time of year, you're not used to going that long without playing. You know, if you're Liberty. Meanwhile, Florida International did play last week, September the 28th against Louisiana Tech. What I might do is, I've already taken Florida International full game. I might add a little first half with Florida International. Maybe especially out of the gate Liberty is a little bit, 'cause remember they haven't played now since September 21st, 'cause that game against App State got canceled, got postponed. So from that standpoint, Connor is Liberty maybe not quite sharp and on their game early in this one, something to factor in, something to watch for. - Definitely. - I think so. So that's definitely something, if you're watching that game Tuesday night, it's definitely one of those deals where watched early to see how sharp Liberty is, because again, teams aren't used to this many days between games at this stage of the season. All right, next up Wednesday, New Mexico State, Jacksonville State. We've got Jacksonville State, 20 and a half point home favorites, 57 and a half the total in this game. We talked a little bit last week, C-Mac about how Jacksonville State's kind of been disappointing this year. But certainly the last two games, they've gotten their act together after losing to Coastal and getting blown out in their season opener at home. They get whipped by Louisville. They lose on the road at Eastern Michigan. But boy, oh boy, if they turn things around and certainly offensively they have in the last two years, we think of this Rich Rod offense, top tempo spread run first offense and how they can quickly put up points. They play at one of the fastest pace, paces and tempos in college football. And we're certainly seeing signs of that, the last few games. And really, I think what we're seeing is twofold. Tyler Huff is really becoming a weapon at quarterback for Jacksonville State. Tyler Huff is throwing the ball better and more importantly, he's running the football extremely well. He's already got 445 rushing yards in five games this season running the football from the quarterback spot. So again, he's a great fit for this offense. You can see why he's starting because Rich Rod wants it to be run first. He wants quarterback runs. He wants the RPO game as part of this offensive system for it to be at its best. And I think Tyler Huff is starting to figure it out. And we've seen this offense just absolutely lighted up. Even the Eastern Michigan game, we saw signs of this offense starting to get going. 34, 44, and 63 points. Now, the last two games were against absolutely sorry opponents, right? Southern Miss and Kennesaw State. So we can't go overboard with the praise and overboard with how impressed we are with Jacksonville State. But the problem is, I don't know how much better New Mexico State is. They did get a point spread cover against Liberty at home. 30 to 24, it was the one game where they looked pretty solid, but they're one in four against the spread on the year. They didn't cover a number outside of that. And as a dog, you know, you would think that this team might be a team you could back getting all these points, but 48 nothing loss at Fresno failed to cover as 20 point dogs. 31, 11 loss against Sam Houston State on the road. They failed to cover as 15 point dogs. And then a 50 to 40 loss to New Mexico in the state rivalry game, in state rivalry game in their last game. You know, Centino Marucci is not exactly a quarterback that is impressing me at the moment. This year, two touchdowns, two interceptions, 47.5% completion rate, that's horrific. You're not even completing 50% of your passes. So that's a problem right now for New Mexico State. Quite honestly, it's probably one of the biggest downgrades at the quarterback spot from one year to the next in all of college football this year, New Mexico State. When you go from Diego, Pavia to this guy, Centino Marucci and his 47% completion rate. So that's not what you want to see. I'm not a big Tony Sanchez guy. You know that. I thought he obviously didn't do what Barry Odom's doing right now at UNLV when he was there. Jacksonville State starting to show signs of it. And they've shown they could absolutely whip on bad teams the last two games. Watch to stop them from whipping on another. I would honestly lean to JSU here, Jacksonville State, maybe a team total over on Jacksonville State if you're not comfortable laying the 20 and a half, but this could be another game where they just pile on the points here because that offense is starting to really hit their stride and find their confidence the last few weeks. Not to mention we've got a New Mexico State defense. How bad are they against the run? Which is what Jacksonville State looks to do offensively the most? How about 133? Just about dead blast in run defense. 242.6 rushing yards per game allowed by this New Mexico State run defense. It's horrific, and it's not what you want to see when you're playing a team like Jacksonville State. C. Mack, what do you think here? New Mexico State, Jacksonville State. - Hey, I'll see how the weather is 'cause I think both these teams have scored. I think if you do like Jacksonville State, I would not lay it. I would take 13 total, just go that route 'cause both teams should be able to run it. Even New Mexico State last week, they gave up 332 to New Mexico, but they had almost 290. And if they can do that 'cause Marucci the quarterback, yeah. He's not very good, he's 13 to 29. Last week he didn't have a pick, but they just need to handle it. - He should be serving part of a line at an Italian restaurant not playing quarterback right now. - Yeah, but maybe that's in his future, but right now he's playing quarterback for New Mexico State. But I have to say one thing. This defense for Jacksonville State. - It's not good. - For a team like Kennesaw State who had scored more than 17 points in eight months or whatever, and for them to get 24, I mean, they ranked 120th overall. They have been good against the pass score, the run really, Jacksonville State. I thought this was a team bringing back seven or eight. Guys on defense, blah, blah. That defense just isn't there. We know they want to play quick. I lean over in this game too. I think there's just points there, but I just don't want to lay it. And I don't know in the end if I really want to grab, maybe it's over three touchdowns with the Mexico State. I'm not so sure. I just think we get points in this one. - Yeah, you're right about Jacksonville State's defense. It's been leaky at times. It's a new Mexico State, you know, doing off offensively. I would say, you know, I would say can. Here it is, I think, like, I think so. - It's possible. We'll see if they can do it. I'll say this of the New Mexico State game, you know, or the New Mexico game. They did put up 40 in that game against New Mexico. It was all the run game, though. And actually, to be honest with you, if you look at it for New Mexico State, you know, they did have some offensive success, but a lot of it was shorter fields. You know, they still only ended up having 400 young. A lot of it was on the ground, though. The ground game really had a lot of success for New Mexico State in that game. Can it have success here against Jacksonville State? Is the question, 'cause you look at Jacksonville State, they're run defense, to be honest, 4.3 yards per carry. That's not great. It's not terrible, but it's not great. 196.4 rushing yards per game allowed. They have to be able to run the football in New Mexico State, so maybe they can run it on. Both teams might be able to run it on each other. 'Cause Jacksonville State's defense is mediocre. It's maybe slightly below average, which isn't great. New Mexico State's run defense is pathetic. I mean, the numbers for New Mexico State's run defense are dreadful. So that's why it's hard to envision Jacksonville State not having offensive success here in this game. I mean, they're giving up 233 rushing yards per game. 5.7 yards per carry. Almost six yards per every rush attempt being allowed by this New Mexico State team. That's not gonna cut it against this team. That's a very big worry. All right, Thursday night, we have another group of five conference game. This time we go to the Sun Belt, Coastal Carolina and James Madison. We have a JMU 9 1/2 point home favorites, 62 being the total in this game. How about, we didn't talk about it early, but it was an upset worth talking about. How about ULM? How about the Warhawks? ULM in row, rising up and taking down James Madison, 21 to 19 on Saturday. Very solid win for a Bryant Vincent, man. People are sleeping on him as a head coach. It was a great, great under the radar, coaching hire by ULM in row to get Bryant Vincent. This is the guy that got screwed at UAB. He should have been the head coach, not that oath, Trent Dilfer. And we see that program just absolutely going down the shithole right now with him at the helm. That job should have went to Bryant Vincent because the kids wanted him. He took over after Bill Clark retired at UAB and they played great down the stretch. They loved playing for the guy and UAB's num nuts AD department, AD and the whole department said, "Nope, sorry, you're out." And they brought in Trent Dilfer. Terrible, he should have been the guy. But now he's at ULM and that was a great win for ULM. It was a bad loss though for James Madison. I mean, 17 point favorites. We're talking about a JMU team that just came off a 70 to 50 win against North Carolina and then a 63 to seven beat down of Ball State. And then you go to ULM and you struggled. Their quarterback Alonza Barnett struggled in that game, probably his worst game at the quarterback spot, only 20 of 47, 251 yards, sub 50% completions, not that efficient at all, trouble running the football, only 148 rushing yards and it took 34 attempts to get those 148 rushing yards against ULM's defense. ULM's got a defense, man. That's what we're finding out about them. James Madison found that out as their offense struggled, stuck in mud, most of that game in offense. It's been putting up 60s and 70s in some other games this year. So it's a bounce back spot now for James Madison, coming off that very disappointing loss as double digit road favorites at ULM. Kind of feels like a good spot to back them. But you know, you give this coastal team nine, nine and a half points, I should say, as an underdog, a team that has started the year four and one straight up, three and two against the spread. They beat Jacksonville State big in their opener. They hammered William and Mary. They beat Temple, although they did struggle a bit, didn't cover in that. They lose to Virginia, 43-24. And even in that loss to Virginia, coastal still gained 302 through the air with their quarterback, Ethan Vasco. So it's gonna be interesting to see can they throw the ball here against this James Madison defense. Again, it's a JMUD defense that we've seen at times be somewhat susceptible. We think of the North Carolina game. I don't know. This is a tricky one 'cause back home after a very disheartening loss, when it shocked me of James Madison brings their A game and they win and maybe cover it, it wouldn't shock me. But you know, you get James or sorry, you get coastal Carolina in this underdog range. They're getting, you know, nine, nine and a half points. Long term, this has been a solid underdog team. Last year though, one thing that does concern me about backing coastal here is at home. They look completely and utterly outclassed by James Madison last year, 56 to 14. Now that was the Kurt Signeti, Jordan McLeod, James Madison group that's not that same group this year. They're definitely not as good as they were last year. And I think maybe that Monroe game might have been a sign that maybe this team is down just a little bit. 'Cause it's one thing when you beat North Carolina non-conference team, remember to C-Mac, you're getting into conference play. All these teams know you, you know, all these teams know you and know your tendencies and where your strengths are and where your weaknesses are. And certainly Bryant Vincent and you all Monroe exploited that last week. Now here's another conference opponent. And you know, I'm not a big Tim Beck fan as a head coach, but you know, again, familiarity. You know what you're gonna expect here from James Madison. So I lean coastal actually. I know it's a bounce back spot for James Madison, but I do lean coastal a little bit, you know, especially with them getting almost doubles in this game as an underdog. C-Mac, what do you think? Coastal Carolina, James Madison. - Yeah, James, I mean, there's some ugly teams maybe that you want to bet on, but yeah, Charlotte Monroe, I had Southern Miss, they cover, yeah, all right. - I had Monroe too. - James Madison, even though I respected James Madison, like I'm liking what I'm seeing from Monroe, the thought they could be. - I didn't think they were gonna win though. My gosh, what a win for, like I said, for Bryant Vincent, incredible win. - Yeah, huge win. And just it was a flat spot for James Madison. Now they're back home. The last couple of years, like he talked about different team, different old thing, you hit on it. They just beat down this coastal squad. I've been a little impressed. Like they played Virginia and they kind of got beat up in that game. And the temple game's a little misleading. The only game that didn't go over, Butbano, and that was 21-3. They just kind of took the second half off. But last week, more points against Old Dominion. So I just think both these teams will have success of moving the football. Now, I was told those up there a little bit. So I wanted to look at a little bit more, but I think we get points in this game. And one thing, I think James Madison, they got to come back, you know, a little bit after that loss, like K, and get it together at home. But there's just no way I'm gonna back then. Lane 10, I just can't do it. So we'll see if I can get there with Coastal. You know, Vasco, he's been pretty good. Like, but they made, what's his face? - Where he was. - Joseph. Yeah, they made Joseph look. He was slaying it actually, you know, there's the second stringer for Old Dominion last week. So this coastal defense just hasn't been there, especially the last couple of weeks, giving it a 43 and 48, even the 20 to temple. If you kind of think of that. So yeah, I thought we could get some points in this one, and I'm off the side. Lean Coastal right now. - I agree, I agree. I think this could be a game you're right where we see some up points scored in this one. Remember, they're more balanced now under Tim Beck. Jamie Chadwell was there. They were definitely way heavier skewed to the run coastal on offense. Now they're more balanced. They definitely throw the ball a lot more than they are. - They are throwing. - Yeah, so I agree with the total move, you're right. And then you're not alone, 'cause this total is 59 and a half at 62 now. So there's been some movement up in the total for sure. Shout out to everyone in the chat before we get to our next game. Ross Pitts, Talk Sports with JT, Goldju, Myron Kidd, Rance, Bama Boy, Nasty Nate, Good to See Nasty Nate, Goryon Ninkowski, Old E, Kong's Clips, who's had a phenomenal first month of the season. Great to see everyone in the chat. All right, Middle Tennessee State and Louisiana Tech. This is an ugly one. Louisiana Tech, 5.0 favorites, 50, the total. So first of all, Middle Tennessee is not a team that I'm interested in backing. You guys know that. I've faded this team pretty much every game this season. Although finally for the first time, I did not cash a ticket going against them in their last game against Memphis. As Memphis kind of fucked around and dicked around for most of that game and they didn't play great, they didn't play inspired right from the beginning. They got off to a very sluggish, very slow start and they ended up getting a 24-7 win Memphis over this Middle Tennessee State team. So maybe it is a sign that the Middle Tennessee's power rating has bottomed out, you know, that now maybe there could be some value betting on them moving forward, especially now that we get into conference play. And I'll say this, C-Mac for middle. Bad hire, I don't like the Derek Mason hire. This program is going in the ditch, all of that. And that's why I've been fading them a lot this year. But you played Old Miss, Western Kentucky and Duke. Three in a row, competent teams, Memphis as well. And now you're taking a step down in class now that you're going back into conference play here for Middle Tennessee. So the one thing I'll say about them is they're bad. They're one of the worst teams in the country right now, but they are taking a step down with playing Louisiana Tech after some of the teams they've played. So I don't know if I'm on board betting against middle again. I do lean Louisiana Tech, but I got to admit, I'm not giddy about laying five with Louisiana Tech either. That's the problem. You look at Louisiana Tech, nickel state 25, 17, seven point favorite, barely covered there. They did have a 30 to 20 point spread cover loss against NC State. That's the game that Grayson McCall got injured for them. They lose outright his favorites against Tulsa 23 to 20 at home. Tulsa's proven to be pretty bad, the last few games. So that's not impressive. And then at FIU, they're two and a half point road favorites. They lose outright 17, 10. So that's not exactly a resume that says, wow, I'm really confident laying five with Louisiana Tech now, is it? So it's a very, very tricky game for me. Probably a pass, two teams that can move the football, especially middle can move the football a little bit. Maybe this goes over the total 50. I know Louisiana Tech's been an under team. Their offense has really struggled. There's no doubt Evan Bullock has been a blocks at times from the quarterback spot for Louisiana Tech. And they haven't been able to run the football consistently throughout the course of the year. You look at those Louisiana Tech run numbers. You know, they're not exactly having great, they're not having any success running the football. They're averaging 77 rushing yards per game, 2.4 yards per carry. But middle Tennessee can't stop the run. So what's going to give there? Tricky game, right? I mean, middle tennis fading a lot, but they did cover last week. They did face a tough schedule. And Louisiana Tech's not exactly a team playing well enough that I'm saying, yeah, let's lay five with them, even against a bad team. So I don't have anything yet on this game. And I may not once we get there on Thursday with kickoff. C-Mac, what do you think your MTSU lot tech? - I mean, both these teams are just dreadful. They're horrible on their numbers. They're at the bottom, they're at the bottom on the offensive numbers. They're just both are very good. So what gives? Does that help just like stay under? Lot tech a little bit more of an under team. I mean, like I talked about already with the FIU losing to the 1710. I took them against Nichols and they had like five turnovers in the game, still cover 25-17. And they were only six and a half point favorites. So I thought like I got lucky there at a backdoor they covered against NC State. This one's just tough for me. I lean law tech, do I really want my money on them here? Basically a touchdown to cover. I guess I do. I just don't know. It's tough to take a team when they don't win football games. Now they have to win the football game and cover it for them. You know, this team hasn't, they've been dreadful. They have won win it. That was at Nichols that game first week of the season. So yeah, I lean law tech here, but I bet this one. To me, there's not a burning desire here to... That's saying something, Darrell Turner, but you might be right. I mean, I haven't seen enough of Evan Bullock because Jack Turner was the starter here at Louisiana Tech early in the year, but he's been benched. Sonny Combe decided I'm making a change and he went to Evan Bullock and he was okay against FIU and actually the numbers, the stats aren't bad for him in that FIU loss, but they didn't finish. You know, they only scored at the end of the day 10 points in that game, Louisiana Tech. So you got to finish drives at the end of the day. I'm not a body auto guy. You know, I don't like that guy at all. I think he's not very good, but he's... But to your point there, Darrell, he might be better than Evan Bullock. - Maybe. - Because he actually had beautiful four times. It's just he has these stupid dumb fuck turnovers half the time body auto. That's what gets him in trouble and you know, but he can't move the ball at times. I have seen it. So like I say, that's an ugly game. I don't think I'll be involved with it. All right, the third and final game on Thursday, this week, UTEP and Western Kentucky, Western Kentucky 19, 19 and a half point on favorites, 58, 58 and a half the total. This total has gone up too. And if you watch UTEP's defense last week, you can understand why. That's the performance of the UTEP minors last week, 41 to 21 beat down at the hands of... I'll be at a much improved Sam Houston state team. But that was the scheduling spot of a lifetime gift wrap for you with UTEP having the advantage against Sam Houston. Sam Houston's coming off that huge comeback against Texas state, short week, traveling on the road. UTEP's off a buy extra time to prepare. And that's the third that UTEP rolled out there for the national audience on television to see on CBS Sports Network last week. Dreadful, dreadful. Yeah, Cade McConnell started moving the offense. Yeah, when the game was already well in hand, when the game was there to be... When you had a... When that game was still up for grabs in the first half, the guy was dog shit in the first half. Cade McConnell, he was terrible. Yeah, yeah, he scored a bunch of garbage points in the second half, but I'm telling you what, he was not good at all when the game... When the game was still up for grabs and it mattered in the first half, he was not good. He ended up finishing still with not great numbers overall, 15 of 28, 204 through the air. Scotty Walden is just stuck. He doesn't have a good quarterback on his roster right now. It's becoming clear because the person that was in there before struggled, Locklear, and then he went, goes to Cade McConnell. And Cade McConnell wasn't any good last year, not consistent 'cause he was with this program last year when Dana Demol was still the head coach. They've just got all kinds of issues on offense. And Western Kentucky, look, they're giving up 41 to Sam Houston off a bi-week with extra time to prepare. What could Western Kentucky do on offense against them? And I know Western's coming off the 21-20 loss against BC, but they've been a good point spread team, four and one against the spread. They've also made a quarterback change. They started the year, Western Kentucky, at quarterback with a different starter and they changed to Cade and belt camp. Remember, they started with TJ Finley, the guy that transferred over from Texas State, and he obviously wasn't playing well enough in the eyes of Helton, the head coach, and he made the switch to Cade and belt camp, and belt camp's been the starter of the last couple. Remember, belt camp is the guy as well, C-Mac. He entered that bowl game. He played in the bowl game last year when they had that epic, epic comeback. Remember, they ruled out Austin Reed, and everyone was betting against Western Kentucky in that bowl game, and Western Kentucky had the huge comeback. Cade and belt camp was the quarterback that engineered that comeback. - And he's won this job. - Yeah, I mean, he has, yeah, he's come in. - Bottom line is, look, if you tap off a bi-week, okay, this was an extra time to prepare. Gave up 41 on defense. What's to stop Western Kentucky from rolling it up offensively against them at this point? So I understand why Western's taking money. It's hard to back you tap right now. It just really, truly is. And if Western Kentucky can hit the 40s, the one thing I'll say, Western Kentucky can be at times susceptible on defense, maybe McConnell and UTEP can hit 20, 'cause that's what happened for me last week. I had Sam Houston and UTEP over 50, and they got to 62 points in that game, and it's because we got enough from the opponent, or we got enough from UTEP offensively to get that game over the total. So I think maybe something like that could happen again, something like 40 to 24, 41 to 24, something like that. And this game, or 41-20, if Western Kentucky covers, that could be a final score. And it goes over this 57, well, it was 57, it's 58 and a half, so it's been moving this total, and it's hard to disagree with the way UTEP defensively looked last week. Seamak, what do you think here? UTEP, Western Kentucky. - We'll see. And that was the first time all year that game got, for UTEP got over, 'cause the defense is bad, but it's been dreadful. Like even when we mentioned Liberty early, 28 Colorado states, who's down this year, 27. And all the flips like UTEP can't score. If they get to the 20 in there, I think you're right. But I don't know if that can happen, even if it is. The Western Kentucky team has been pretty good. We know their defense always isn't the tops usually year in and year out. But the quarterback changes, you know, last week, Feldenkamp, he had two picks, but they were right in that game. - That was BC on the road though, so I'll forgive him for that, yeah. - Yeah, but still, they covered that. This was big, like I was hoping this was not almost your 20, you know what I mean? But UTEP's been that bad, I thought it'd be more like 14. But they've just been that dreadful, and you can't back them. So it's tough for me to lay this many now with Western Kentucky. Maybe their team total just gets there in the end. They could seem like they could do what they want. And UTEP, it's just they can't stop the run game. They just can't stop it. Like, so Western Kentucky, maybe this week, hand it off a little bit more. 'Cause UTEP against the past, not horrible. I think they give up a little less than 200, so. - Yeah, tough for maybe the Western Kentucky team total. I think that'd be maybe the safest in this game. - Great question from Slippery Rock. With this new Hurricane Milton approaching, any of these games in jeopardy of bad weather. So Milton apparently is heading to Tampa Bay Area, and it's supposed to be late Wednesday and into Thursday. So to me, I think the majority of the bad weather, the worst of it with this hurricane is gonna be gone by Saturday when these games take place. So I think the Saturday games will be fine. The game that you may have to worry about being postponed or canceled is Memphis, South Florida on Friday night, because where is South Florida? Oh yeah, Tampa, they play in the same stadium. Raymond James Stadium is the fucking ears of the NFL. So that's the game that's in jeopardy, Slippery Rock, in my opinion, Memphis, USF, Friday night. - And kind of what happens with these hurricanes once they hit, like the last one lingered long. It went through the Carolinas and like, where does this veer off and maybe go with it like so? I mean, it looks like it's heading kind of the same as the last one. So yeah, to-- - Carolinas, check in the hurricane watch. Yeah. - Yeah, yeah. - Check it. - Yeah, definitely. - Too early because these things, it's hard to pinpoint on a Monday where it's gonna go the exact trajectory. It can change with all these weather patterns and low pressure systems. And in this case, you know, hurricanes. So from that standpoint, it's definitely, we'll know more later in the week, but as of right now, I would say Memphis, South Florida, is the game on the schedule that could be affected by a hurricane, Milton. Great segue 'cause that's next up on our list of games. Friday night, Memphis and South Florida, again, this would be the game where I'd be a little leery but actually going ahead and taking place. So keep that in mind. But we will handicap it as if it's going to happen. Friday night at 7 p.m. Eastern time. Memphis, seven point road favorites, 59 and a half the total in this game. The betting markets are really starting to crash hard on South Florida. As in, you know, not like what they've seen from South Florida in a couple of their recent games. And I get it, you know, Tulane and Miami, they got absolutely drilled. They got absolutely pounded in those two games. South Florida, 50 to 15 lost to Miami, 45 to 10 lost to Tulane. But Miami, we know how great they are on offense. No question with Cam Ward and company and how explosive they are. Even though it's bad, you give up 50 points. We know that's a heck of an offense. And then you give up 45 points to a Tulane team that, you know what? I actually think they're still scoring on UAB and that sorry ass Trent Dilford lead football team right now. I still think so. I think they're still, I think they just punched in another touchdown right now, UAB. I think they're gonna, they're getting close to that 80 mark now against UAB as we speak. Ah, that's terrible for UAB. That's just, that's another story, but. That's awful. I said this coming into the season about Tulane. John Sumrall is the poster child for why we don't just assume coming into the year. Okay, they lost a lot of players from last year. They lost their head coach, who was a very good one in Willie Fritz. Let's bet against this team this season. No, you don't do that. Especially when you bring in an excellent head coach who knows what he's doing, who gets the team prepared, who gets them ready for every game, who always has a strong game plan to dissect the opponent on a weekly basis. And that's John Sumrall, who they hired from Troy, who's done a phenomenal job with Tulane. So that's a reminder when it comes to handicapping college football, don't just bet against teams 'cause they have a new head coach. Head coach is worth a damn and he knows what he's doing. They can have success in year one. So that's a big factor. Anyway, getting back to South Florida. Yeah, bad against Miami and Tulane, non-competitive. But you have to remember how great Miami's offense is and Tulane's been just absolutely terrific. Like I said, they're probably, if there was no time limit and they could keep playing from Saturday to Monday, Tulane versus UAB, Tulane would still be putting up touchdowns right now against that sorry ass UAB football team. So as far as I'm concerned, you've got to take it with a grain of salt and South Florida was horrible in the last two games. In fact, well, they played Miami was a great offense and they played a Tulane team that's a lot better than people think. You can tell I'm lean in South Florida here because I just don't trust Memphis fully as a touchdown road favorite. There's a Memphis team that lost outright as a nine point road favorite to Navy just a few weeks ago and gave up 56 points. Just when we think Memphis has one of the better defenses they've had in years, they give up 56, can't stop the triple option, albeit that Navy team's looking pretty good this year with Blake Horvath leading it this year. That they got that wing T and they've got this hybrid fusion offensive system. They're picking up pieces of offensive systems from various systems and blending it into one and they're having success Navy and South and Memphis couldn't stop them. And even last week against a downtrodden bottom feeder middle Tennessee team 27 point favorites. They never sniffed a point spread cover. They were asleep for most of that game. It was pathetic how Memphis played, especially in the first half. They should have drilled that team. They should have put them away, especially after losing a Navy the way they did. And that's how you come out against middle Tennessee sleep walk through most of them. They're just not well coached, see, Mac. I've said this a million. I'm not a Ryan Silverfield guy. This guy has not kept the program at the Heights Mike Norvell had it before he left Memphis for South Florida State. So this is definitely a, I'm not laying seven. I know the betting markets think South Florida is a piece of crap because of the way they played the last two weeks against Miami and Tulane. But they still do have an offense with Byron Brown that can be very explosive. The offense hasn't clicked. I can't explain why the offense has been so bad. This was not supposed to be an issue with South Florida. And that does concern me because, you know, Miami's defense got hit a little bit by Cal over the weekend. Why couldn't South Florida, you know, move the football and keep an eye too. Byron Brown left that Tulane game with an injury and didn't return. Bryce Archie took over and Byron Brown's questionable for this game. So if he doesn't go, we might once again be seeing Bryce Archie at the a quarterback spot. And that could be a significant downgrade because Bryce Archie in that Tulane game after Brown got hurt four for 10, 41 yards, horrible. No passing game, no downfield vertical attack at all for South Florida with Bryce Archie after Byron Brown left that game against Tulane. So keep that in mind. I still lean South Florida. I don't trust this coach and I don't trust this Memphis team as a full touchdown road favorite at this point. Seamak, what do you think? - Yeah, I got to wait with the quarterback. I don't know if I want to go there with a. - I'm with you there with Archie. So yeah, this is just a wait for me. But I think the South Florida team, you know, they're still bad. They're saying, but they play a Tulane team that's pretty good this year. I've seen them play enough. And Miami who is still undefeated and has a really good offense. So it showed the South Florida defense, you know, is still leaky. But I think they're the side in this one. I think this is where I want them when they're just kind of just got tossed off. And I always love fading Memphis as a favorite. You know what I mean? Earlier in the year they had, the crowd were obviously a Florida state. That was that big game. We know what's happened with Florida state. And then Navy just runs all over them the next week. So what do we get? Like the stats say, you know, the defense has been pretty good for Memphis, but just not a team on the road that I want to lay it. Both these teams too. It's been a little bit high. They're totals. So this, yeah, wait for the, maybe the weather. This is at 59, but one in four and one in three for South Florida, some of these totals, just maybe have been a little bit high and they haven't got there in the end. So I don't think I mess with that. I think I just looked to South Florida. I will wait later in the week on this one. - Yeah, I'm with you too though. I would much prefer Brown at quarterback. Hopefully he is this week for South Florida. Keep in mind, Memphis is run defense numbers by the way for the full season they're lying. It's going to look like they're pretty good against the run three point. Their full season numbers are 3.9 yards per carry allowed. Memphis, the run defense. - Some of those teams didn't run though. Like Florida State, some of those games. Yeah, exactly. - 119 rushing yards per game allowed. You know you played, you played North Alabama, Troy, who's been an offensive disaster this year. Florida State in the toilet offensively and Middle Tennessee was a terrible football team. The one good run rush team you played was Navy. And you know what Navy did? 361 rushing yards against Memphis. It's skewed from weak offenses and teams don't or can't run the football. That's how they feasted the Memphis numbers against the run. - And what in the end here, Seth Hennigan. Like just been there forever, decent quarterback, but not great. I mean last week against Middle Tennessee, you know, 26 or 41, 227, no TDs, no picks, but it's like a serviceable guy. - That's pedestrian. Yeah, pedestrian performance, simple as that. All right, Northwestern and Maryland. You should be putting up 500 yards and three touchdowns, a minimum against that Middle Tennessee state team. And he didn't do that Seth Hennigan in that game. All right, Northwestern and Maryland, another big 10 Friday night college football, Fox National TV game coming up here. Maryland 10 point home favorites, 45, the total in this game. I'm going to be stubborn with Northwestern because you know, I do feel that this team is this is where you want it. This is the point spread range you want Northwestern. If you're going to back Northwestern, this is when you're going to do it, is when they're getting double digits. Now I know the last two times, they've been double digit underdogs. They failed to cover at Washington 24-5. But look, that's a Washington team that just had a nice impressive win against Michigan. You know, they played better in the loss against Rutgers on the road than you would think. They probably should have won that game. And then you look at Indiana 41-24. I was impressed with Northwestern. Indiana's damn good and, you know, they hung around for a majority of that game. Now Curtis Rourke did what he did to a lot of teams against Northwestern, ripped them up through the air. But I was impressed with Jack Losh. Jack Losh was definitely improved from, he was terrible against Washington on the road. But I thought he was a lot better against Indiana 243 through the air, two touchdowns, no interceptions. That's what you like to see. They still haven't been able to run the football 93 rushing yards against Indiana. So that's going to have to improve. But you do look at this Maryland defense. Their run defense has been good. Their past defense has been ripped. So maybe Jack Losh can have some success through the air here against this Maryland defense. Maryland, meanwhile, on the offensive side, in spite of losing Talia, Tonga, Byloa. You know, we've seen some good results from them. They're also off a bi-week worth noting, they haven't played since they lost Indiana. So both of these teams are coming off losses to the Indiana Hoosiers. But Billy Edwards has been very good at throwing the ball. Roman Hembe, a very good running back for Maryland as well. You look at this Northwestern team though. The defense is really what's kept this Northwestern team afloat. They're only giving up 93 rushing yards per game, 3.1 yards per carry. Now their past defense has been the shaky part. So it kind of feels like two teams should be able to throw on the other team. But whoever's going to be able to run better against the other team is probably going to win and cover this game. Because that's where the concerns are. Maryland and Northwestern defensively are both better against the run. The problem is, I think Maryland's got a little bit better running back than Northwestern does with Hembe. But Maryland off a bi is a good thing for them. I still don't fully like the idea of laying doubles with this team and this coach in Locksley necessarily. But, highly Northwestern, I don't know. I'm on the fence though, because I'll admit, Northwestern has failed to cover his double digit dogs. I'm not sold the match up, it's going to work for them. Maryland's at home on a Friday night, College Park. Place will be probably bumping a little bit more than you would normally have for a game against Northwestern. So it's a mild lean to Northwestern, but I don't know if I'm going to end up getting involved or moving ahead with a bet on it. What do you think you're seeing back? That's why I can't get involved, man. I know this isn't a world enough to know. It's been the last, I don't know, three years or so. Northwestern has a doctor's has a cover, and it was just, you took them, especially at home. You know, it just was just money. - I figured down the stretch they were. Not this year so far. - They did, but still, now this is on the road, been a little bit different, but it's tough to watch them 'cause the offense just hasn't been very good, you know, and they're one and four, ATS. They haven't covered anything, so that doesn't make me want them here. I didn't think this was enough points. Maryland, you mentioned off the buy. Edwards looked pretty good, I thought, you know, he had like 350 in that game. He was slinging around. If he takes care of the ball, I think Maryland wins here. But man, I don't really don't want to lay 10. This is a pass for me. - All right, UNLV and Utah State. UNLV 19 point road favorite, 64 and a half the total. This is also on Friday night. Look, normally I don't like betting against teams coming off their first loss of the season, which obviously UN, 'cause it's sometimes a bubble burst, right, even, I know it's the NFL, but look at Seattle yesterday against the New York Giants, where they lost their first game against Detroit, Monday night football last week. And you could tell right away, Seattle didn't have it. Seattle didn't have it yesterday. And sometimes when you lose that first game, it's like a, it takes a week to get it out of your system. So I guess that's the one fear you'd have if you're gonna back UNLV here, coming off that top, top loss in overtime against Syracuse. Look, I get it, right? Some of the calls that went against UNLV, especially late, were dubious, I get it, but at the same time, you can't give up 44 points and you can't give up all those passing yards to Cal McCord like they did. You can't give up 355 passing yards and expect to win. So I get bitching about the refs a little bit, but let's not say we lost 'cause of the refs. No, you lost 'cause the secondary got flamed and torched in that game by Cal McCord. But I think right now, you've got the opportunity to bounce back here. And if there's a coach I'm ready to trust, to have his team refocused. Like if you're UNLV, no-woe is me. They can't be down in the dumps. Everything is still ahead of you. That was not a Mountain West Conference game either, that you lost to Syracuse. You're already one in O and conference play from the win against Fresno. So there's no need to be in a down mood or a sad mood and feel sorry for yourself. And if there's one coach that I trust to not have his team feeling sorry for themselves after last week, it's Bariota. Fabestine pumped up, pumped up again, ready to rock. It's conference play Friday night. Let's get the job done. Let's bounce back. Let's play UNLV football the way we're capable of. And I think you're gonna see UNLV respond the right way here. With Hodge Malik Williams has been great. He's better throwing the ball than Sluka by the way. Like I say, they do not, don't hit your door on the way out kind of thing with him. They don't miss him in the slightest that he can throw and he can run too. And he's shown that he's been great. Now the defense was the issue last week, but as Utah State's offense capable of doing anything about it, I'll say this, they scored 29 and 30 the last two against Temple and Boise with Spencer Petrus, the Iowa transfer, who is experienced. I still don't think he's that great though at the quarterback spot. More than anything. Flash is a, yeah. But one thing I do know about Utah State, this is one of the worst defenses in college football right now. 48 to us, 38 to Utah, 38 to Utah and Cam rising didn't even fucking play in that game. It was little Zach Wilson, Isaac Wilson, little brother of Zach who hasn't really been that good. And he somehow they put 38 against Utah State with Isaac Wilson at quarterback. 45 allowed to Temple and then 62 to Boise last week. You want to know how bad Utah State's defense is, especially against the run. Look at these run defense numbers for Utah State. They're giving up 217.8 rushing yards per game, 5.6 yards per carry. That's death against UNLV. 'Cause UNLV wants to run the football. They want the run game to be part of that offense. I mean, that is a, just a matchup nightmare waiting to happen for Utah State's defense here in this game. You want to know how bad it is, C-Mac? Ashton Gente, I think he cashed his rushing prop at halftime. 186 rushing yards and they didn't even play him a snap in the second half 'cause it was a blowout. It was all boy, it was over at halftime. Boise was up what, 42 to seven or something at halftime. It was over. They didn't play Ashton Gente a snap, a single play in the second half and he already, and he still had 186 rushing yards last week against this Utah State defense. Just absolutely hilarious stuff. What was that score? It was 49 to 17 at halftime for Boise State last year. I took him, I laid them minus 16. You can go to the team total. Cashed it halftime. There you go. It cashed it outside. Yeah, for me, look, this is UNLV or pass. UNLV first half maybe, UNLV team total. UNLV team total over is probably what I like the most because I'll say this about the Syracuse game, C-Mac. I had the full game over, but I did take UNLV, didn't play the points with them, which was a good thing, but I did take UNLV team total over 31 and a half. In that game and it cashed, you know, they scored obviously in the loss even despite losing 41 points. So the team, and I love those games where the team total over caches, even if that team doesn't cover the point spread. But if you ask me, I do think UNLV's probably covering the point spread here. I just like the team total over even more. I lean to the full game over two because this could be like Boise where UNLV gets 45, 48 and all you need is like 20, 21 out of Utah State with Patris and they can go over the total. I would look at anything like that. Any of those combos, any of those bets in this game in some form, C-Mac, UNLV first half, UNLV full game, UNLV team total over and a full game over here. What do you think? - Yeah, I agree. I think UNLV team total is the way to go. Even first half, the numbers, just Utah State at the bottom of the barrel. Here it gets the bass and the run. They're just right there, almost dead last in the country. UNLV in that game. I talked about, you did too, the secondary, they hadn't really played anybody and quarterback would throw it. McCord did, they dominated time with possession. I know there were bad calls in that game but Syracuse almost 40 minutes to UNLV's 20. And UNLV's sloppy, nine penalties for 108 yards. Man, it just wasn't, they didn't look locked in but they should be able to just run it, run it, run it, kind of score at will against this Utah State team. And yeah, maybe Utah State could pitch in but I think you just stick to UNLV team total. That was kind of the easy rocket chair winner with Boise last week. - Yeah, no kidding. Ashton Gente, I mean, just an unbelievable season he's having and Utah State, again, the run defense is not very good. UNLV should be able to run it. - I do like the UNLV secondary stuck. I mean, Catalon's getting all the prayers. - They said the things, the passing attack, that great yet, I think and it showed a little bit with McCord and some of those receivers for Syracuse. But down the line, I still think the defense gets after it especially if they turn over, they'll be-- - Yeah, their D line is pretty formidable but you're right, the secondary. And the secondary has been great but again, they faced finally a pass offense that was gonna test them and it showed last week against Syracuse. All right, Utah and Arizona State, a little Friday night, Pac-12 action. We've got Utah, six and a half point, road favorites, 45, the total in this game. Lot of money coming in on Utah. This goes all the way from three up to six and a half and you've gotta believe the reason for the move is that Cam Rising might make an appearance here in this game for Utah. - Utah, those are breath. The game time decision is the latest. We're hearing on Cam Rising status. It'll be pushed to game day. They say it's gonna be a game time decision. If not, it'll be Isaac Wilson, Zach Wilson's a little bro. One more time at quarterback if Cam Rising can't go and this is one of the bigger downgrades from one quarterback to the second. From QB one to QB two, this is a pretty big downgrade for Utah. So it's very important who starts for them, whether it's Rising or it's Isaac Wilson in this game. They're betting Utah as if they know Rising's in there. Either that or they think Utah is undervalued and Arizona State's overvalued. What I'll say is if it's Isaac Wilson at quarterback and this number is where it is right now, I'll be interested in the forks up, man. Honestly, Arizona State, I love the guts of this team, the heart, the fight and they needed every ounce of it and that back and forth affair with Kansas on Saturday night, they kept giving up the lead and they kept responding, whether it was Skadibu running it and what a performance by Sam Levitt, the Michigan State transfer at quarterback. He was terrific in that game and just responded every time Kansas got to move the football and scored against Arizona State. And from someone that had Arizona State money line in that game was very happy to see just how Arizona State always answered back after Kansas scored and for Kansas, it's just another game where they found a way to lose in the fourth quarter and blew a lead and it's happened multiple times for them this year. I'm sure Lance Leipold, beyond frustrated with the lack of finish and late game execution from him from his team this year and it's been bad. But Arizona State, man, certainly one of the more improved teams in college football, they are. I mean, they've certainly played better than people thought. They finally got a quarterback. They got a very good offense. Defense is still a little shaky. But again, if it's Isaac Wilson at quarterback and they exploit that, there is a gap defensively. I get it. Utah is definitely a better defensive team than Arizona State. They totally get it 'cause we've seen Arizona State, the Kansas did move the ball against them, so did Texas State. Even Mississippi State did it at times and so did Texas Tech. But with Isaac Wilson at quarterback, let's assume it's him. No freaking way am I laying, what? Now, six and a half with Utah on the road in this game. But again, this is one of those games we got to wait to see who's under center for the Utes. C-Mac, what do you think? - Good shot, I thought you guys will be Al, Tom Leach, what up, my man? Yeah, that was a gutsy win by Arizona State. And a bunch of points late there, but then the game got over. He talked about it last week. I thought the total was a little bit low. - Yeah, good call. - And it got over there. Skad move, he had a great game too. Kind of a bust out game, 186 yards. I think their defense is all right though, Arizona State. Utah's got he fits the extra time, rising cat. But with him in and out, it's like, at this point, I was like, I gotta keep the noise out until, yeah. - Extra time to prepare for winning him. Yes, I didn't mention that. Good on you for mentioning that, Utah off a buy, yep. - Yeah, extra time. And they just, they couldn't get anything going, which I'd not like to see at home, even with Wilson there against Arizona. 'Cause we saw Arizona, you know, this defense, I think it's just kind of average. We've seen them give up points. So yeah, that's a little bit, but I couldn't go here. I mean, especially if Wilson's in, I think this is all right. I thought Utah could go in there and win, but more than the touchdown, I can't. And I liked Arizona State. Oh yeah, the only game I didn't like was the Texas Tech game, where they went there. That was the only one where I kind of didn't want them at all. So I agree with you, this total's low. I lean under, but it's, you know, it's at 45. I think it's about right. Especially if Wilson's in, you know. Can he put up points? I like, it is, that offense is definitely tough watching when he's in there, you know what I mean? - That lost Arizona, he was borderline inept in that football game. - Yeah, I watched the whole game. - Yeah, it was, it was, it was not a half-home. - For all those years with the Jets again. - Yeah, I know, but to see him at Salt Lake it's just not put up anything up against Arizona, not even make a move to in that game. Like, they, you know, drive and score some points. It just never happened, especially in the second half. - No doubt, it was an alarming offensive performance, not the kind of offensive performance I'm trusting if Wilson's gonna be the quarterback laying this kind of number on the road. All right, let's turn to Saturday. We're finally at Saturday's games. There's just a slew of weeknight games, but finally we move on to Saturday. Now Iowa State, West Virginia in the big 12, Iowa State, three-point road favorites. 51, the total here in this game. You know, West Virginia, I'm leaning West Virginia here, I'll be honest. There's a Saturday night game in Morgantown. They finally got off, you know, that, look, there's some real worry about Oklahoma State. They, they're looked like some semblance of quit from Mike Gundy's team, Saturday against West Virginia. That was very, that was not a good sign, I think, for Oklahoma State. But let's not take it away from West Virginia. They played well in that game against Oklahoma State, got the job done easily, you know, wire to wire. They were just better football team, start to finish on Saturday against Oklahoma State. You know, I like Garrett Green quite a bit. You know, the quarterback, it's all about the defense for West Virginia. That's been the area where they've been a little bit weaker, not nearly as good this season. That was absolutely one of their better defensive efforts, though holding Oklahoma State to 14 points. And now they've got some momentum, right? They had the loss to Penn State, they had that frustrating loss to Pitt where they, they should've won that game. Really, this team should be four in one right now. They shouldn't have lost that pick game. They were up by like two scores late and then Pittsburgh, bang, bang, two touchdowns, comes back and wins 38-34. But they, what happened to them against Pitt, they turned the tables on Kansas 'cause Kansas lost a game to West Virginia in very similar fashion. And West Virginia came back late 30. And then they have that great dominant effort against Oklahoma State. So Neil Brown's team has definitely, I think kind of righted the ship. It was a huge game on the ground for Jaheem White, 158 rushing yards for him against Oklahoma State last week. We'll see if they can have success here against a very good Iowa State run defense. So they've been pretty, actually they haven't been phenomenal, but they've been okay, 4.2 rushing yards per game, 138 rushing yards per game allowed, 4.2 yards per carry allowed. They do, they are a balanced offense. They're running it pretty well, 223 on the ground for West Virginia, 5.3 yards per carry, 216 through the air. Iowa State's defense is pretty solid. 43-21 win against Baylor for them over the weekend, 4.0 against the spread, their last four games. They've been a good point spread team. They've even been covering his favorites this year, which hasn't always been the case under Matt Campbell. But then you look at the opponents though, right? I mean, they did beat Iowa, we'll give them that, but you know, Arkansas State, Houston is not, you know, they're still going through some things, although they had a great win against TCU and Baylor. See how they fair here on the road against West Virginia. I still like the momentum West Virginia's got right now. It's not easy winning and Morgantown on a Saturday night. So I'm still leaning West Virginia here as a home underdog, C-Mac. What do you think? - Yeah, Iowa State, there's a couple we'll get to, try to go against the great. When these two teams just get together, there's points and there's a shit ton of points again. When Baylor played Iowa State, Savannah is just a little bit shocking, but it just happens. And there was a couple of those last week where you can get into Purdue, Wisconsin was another one. And that got easy over. Baylor too was up in this game early, 14-3, you know? And then just, yeah, this, the defense, they just got gashed and then it got close again. And Iowa State pulled away, scored 24 points in the last 10 minutes, just like, pulled away in a tight game. This is an easy, this is where I wanna back West Virginia and I'm on them here. I gotta take the three with green. I know that they don't have, might not have the better defense here, the place should be rocking in this one. Yeah, that Pittsburgh loss was very good, but watch of them beat Kansas and then just beat up on Oklahoma State, which we get to later, man, they have some troubles there. But I like green, I love this offense. I think they could score some points. After seeing Baylor move the ball with Robertson, I mean, I think green could do it as well. So I'll take the three here at home. And what about this total, you know? This is pretty light for West Virginia who's been regularly going over. But do we get more of a tighter game here? I kinda need to look at that more. Yeah, that's a good point about, you know, maybe Iowa State not nearly as good defensively as they've been in the past. I know they shut out Houston and they gave up seven Arkansas State, but 19 to Iowa, even that doesn't do much for me. They played a little bit more of a better off than Baylor's terrible defensively and they showed it again offensively. They can move it a bit and they did struggle a bit Iowa State in that game. And they are three and two to the over Iowa State this year as well. So maybe 51 is a little light with the total. That'll be interesting to see if maybe we're getting a bargain on that total with that one. All right, Cal and Pitt, we got Pittsburgh three and a half point home favorites, 59 and a half. The total still getting used to the fact Cal and Pitt is a ACC game, but here we are. For Cal, man, this is a tough spot. There's no getting around it. This is a very, very tough spot, considering you poured your guts out there Saturday night, college game day in town, in Berkeley, the late night game against Miami and you've got to beat, you've essentially got the beat. You're up what 35 to 10 at one point in that game and you end up somehow letting it slip away, prevent defense. It prevents you from winning, prevents you from covering. That's about it, exactly. Just not aggressive. They were getting after Cam Ward most of that night and just gave him too much time. You give him that much time and I'm shocked in Justin Wilcox 'cause I know defense is his thing to have that kind of a game plan, that passive. You pay the price in football these days playing like that and doing that passive shit. You've got a, your pass rush has to be a factor. You have to play aggressively on opposing receivers. You don't give them 10, 15 yards of cushion down the field. I mean, it's just absolutely ridiculous and absurd to see that from Cowan. They paid the price for it last Saturday night against Miami in that 39-38 loss. Just gut wrenching, considering it was 38 to 18 and 35 to 10 at one point. And then it was 21 unanswered in 10 minutes in the fourth quarter for Miami to turn that game around. Now you gotta have to, just a kick in the gut loss. Now you gotta travel cross country and play pit this week. That's not easy. Pit, meanwhile, look, I cashed a ticket with pit. It was probably equally if not more fate of North Carolina, but pit got the job done. Eli Holstein continues to play well at quarterback. I mean, this pit or pass for me. I can't touch Cowan after that kind of loss. Now you're traveling cross country. I think this is pit minus the points. Three and a half team total over 'cause I like their offense quite a bit. That's definitely the way I would lean here in that game. And let's be honest with Cowan. Defensively, early in the year, they looked pretty good, but was that some of it schedule related? Florida State, no offense. Auburn, weak offense. San Diego State's breaking in a new system, played by far the best offense they've seen and they struggled. So maybe an over as well, but specifically for me, this is probably pit is a home favorite in this game. For me, C-Mac, what do you think? - This is the now the schedules, but with them, just like now then they gotta go cross and it's like back home. I mean, it's gotta start wearing on soon and after that loss. - Let me just quickly say about what you mentioned at wearing on them. The last four weeks at Auburn cross country, all the way back home to San Diego State, all the way back to the East again at Florida State, all the way back home for that Miami game. Late into the night, you blow it, you have that heartbreaking loss and now you gotta fly all the way to the East again for pit. I mean, this may not get off the plane or get off the bus game for Cow. That concerns me here. - Yeah, I think that just like the game plan was just, they get out, the defense is getting afterward like you talked about, but they didn't hold on the ball too much. Not only the defense, a lot of it is the play call in the offense when you have a lead like that. It just drives me nuts and it showed in the time of possession. And it was 22 to like 37, I think it was. I don't have to double check that. But it was just awful. I'm like, wow, so the money lines burned up in flames. Of course, they still covered. It's just tough to go, I know this is three and a half, a pit. They're five and oh, and they're five and oh against the spread. How can I not, you know, if you especially been betting pit, you know, you've been cashing in this one. And I don't know about the total here. Do we get back to having points? Pits may have was scored like I said, but that was, it would have been a goose egg nice early morning for me of all wins. And all I needed was a touchdown with 10 minutes left. Nobody got it in that game. So I didn't love that. Pit got their team total over and pit didn't give anything up. You give them credit, North Carolina. They didn't score in the fourth when the deck kind of in crunch time. So here at home, I think they could win again. And this is up, maybe it's the game. You just take money line, I'm gonna go crazy with that or get this down to three. You feel a lot better. This game could be tight. All right, Vanderbilt and Kentucky, SEC play, Kentucky 14 point home favorites, 46, the total in this game. Here's another type we talked about, Cal, although they had a brutal loss. Vanderbilt had an unbelievable program defining win. The biggest win, I would say in program history. I don't even think it's a debate beating Alabama as what 23 point underdogs on the weekend. Full marks for the win to, you know, the offense moved the football throughout that game against Alabama. Diego Pavia was outstanding. They were able to run it a bit in the defense. Look, they got gushed at times, no doubt, but they made the key stops when they had to and when they had the chance to run out the clock and with a first down, they did. They got it done. So not a fraudulent win at all. Vanderbilt outplayed and took it to Alabama and beat him. But you saw the scenes in Nashville on the field throughout the downtown core of that music city, wheeling the goalposts for crying out loud through the downtown streets of Nashville, Tennessee, following that win. Are you really trust Vanderbilt? I know, into the river too. I know, my gosh, it was like a parade with the goalposts from the stadium that they took down after that win. Do we really trust Vanderbilt to reel it all back in after the win of a lifetime for the program against Kentucky here? That's the debate. But here's the flip side of that argument. Can we lay 14 with Kentucky's offense and Vandergift? Yeah, I don't know. I get it. Look, and people are betting Kentucky handover fist and from a pure spot perspective, I get it. Vander build off that win is not someone I'm ready to trust. But Kentucky's not a double digit. Let's lay 14 with the type of team for me. And Vandy and Bobby in particular, and Vandy is a program, and especially Pavia, going back to when he was with New Mexico State, he's just money as an underdog. His quarterback, ATS record as an underdog, I would love to know what it is. 'Cause it's probably something like 70, 80% at least. He's been that good as an underdog as a quarterback. Now, I know this is coming off. There's a huge potential, emotional, physical, mental, hangover and let down, coming off the big win against Alabama. I totally get it. But Kentucky's not one of those. Yeah, I feel ultra confident in their offense to lay 14 with type of team. So, it's probably a pass for me when it's all said and done on Vandy and Kentucky here. And same with the total. Vandy covers, it goes over. 'Cause offense is better than their defense, but if Kentucky covers, it's probably gonna go under. They're gonna get it to their game. They're gonna shut down Vandy. They're gonna win something like, if they cover, they're gonna win something like 28 to 10 or some shit like that. And it'll stay under the total. So, it's a stay off. This is not one of those deals where like with the Cal game, it's an auto knee jerk, auto bet on the team fading the team in the hangover spot. It's gotta make sense from a match up standpoint. And Kentucky's offense to me, I'm scared to death to lay 14 with their offense. Their defense is great. We saw what they did against Ole Miss. They're really good defensively and they could shut down and make life difficult on Pavia and Vanderbilt, but the offense is still sketchy to me, C-Mac, from Mark Stoop's team. What do you think here? One thing, I just, as good as Kentucky's defense has been, like Pavia's been able to move the ball and score. Like even, you know, in the OT game, Missouri, last week. Yeah, and he's been just great as a dog in the course this year already, been money. Yeah, everyone looked, fade him this week. But too, touch, like, I think if Kentucky does, it's something like that. It's like 28, 13, 21, 10 like you talked about. Like, but I think, we'll see. I wonder, exciting, Vandy could move the ball here. And if that happens, 'cause I thought the same thing, like, yeah, I think you just fade him this week. But two touchdowns with Pavia, Vandy too. Both these teams have been good against the number, both four and one. Kentucky leans to the under, one and four, but Vandy again, just been very, very good to the over that Cash against Bama. So if they score, like you said, this slips over, but if not, this stays under if Kentucky shuts them down. But man, I think it could be trouble containing him. I think, I look out, everyone just rushing right now, to bet Kentucky, 'cause I even thought that. Like, just fade him, but you gotta look in this a little bit more. Do you want Vandy Griffith, who's been, who's looked pretty good? Like, do I trust him, that quarterback? Rock Vandy Griffith, I don't, not a 14 point old favorite. I don't. You know, favorite, they are off a buy here, right? They didn't play last week in Kentucky. Yeah, so they've had time to sit in some of these games. I mean, every thing about a spot perspective, for Vanderbilt from an anti standpoint and Kentucky from a pro standpoint, match up at home off a buy, everything lines up for Kentucky. I totally get that. Yeah. I mean, the numbers just, I don't feel it at minus 14. Just things are different too. It's kind of like Bama. No. Vanderbilt never beat them. They just wax their ass. And kind of Kentucky has beat them up, at least especially at home. I know Vandy beat him a couple of years ago, but just different teams here. And with Pavia, just look out. Don't give him a lane to run. Now, this game could be close. Okay. Should be interesting. That's an interesting game. That's SEC Network, I believe, on Saturday night. So that's a fascinating game. You've got Kentucky coming off a buy that defense, which was, and that defense, you're right, Darrell, was awesome against Ole Miss. And Ole Miss just back to their good ways offensively against South Carolina last weekend. So that makes that Kentucky defensive effort. And the way they played against Georgia, even more impressive. That is no joke, you're right about that Kentucky defense. But you still have to put the biscuit in the basket. You've still got to score points if you're going to cover as minus 14. And that's where the concern has been for Kentucky this season. All right. Next up, Theracuse and NC State. Theracuse, four and a half point road favorites in Raleigh. The total, 54 and a half. This is one where I'm a little perplexed with the total. We know Syracuse offensively is very good. We know their defense is a little susceptible at times. I think a big part of why this total is where it is is because NC State people don't respect their offense and it's struggled at times. Yeah, they haven't corrected it. Yeah. They've had the numbers. Exactly. But it's starting to get a little bit better for NC State. Now, look, last week, it was a terrible wake defense. Wake is very bad on defense. I totally get that. But they did score 30. They finally got some production going. Remember, Grayson McCall got injured again. He actually started, gets injured again, and CJ Bailey has to once again finish in that game. And he played well. It was definitely CJ Bailey's best performance so far in a game for NC State. And remember, he had to play before that because Grayson McCall got hurt previously against Louisiana Tech. If I'm Grayson McCall, I seriously think about calling it quits. I really do. These are multiple concussions now. This guy has suffered once again in concussion protocol. It's one of those two deals, two at Tonga Violoa, where think about your future, man. Your well-being, your physical health. This is now multiple concussions that Grayson McCall has suffered. And you really wonder about what his future is going to be playing football because of this. He might have to make some really serious tough hard decisions as far as his future is concerned. But as of right now, he's in concussion protocol. Hasn't been ruled out for Saturday's game, Grayson McCall. But he is in concussion protocol right now, questionable, which means we might see CJ Bailey in again. And he is coming off one of his better performances. So I think there's a potential for NC State to be able to have some offensive success here. But so will Syracuse. I mean, NC State's defense has clearly struggled. 34 allowed in the lost to Wake Forest over the weekend. The key here is what are we going to get from NC State in the past defense. They're giving up to 16.7 passing yards per game, 74th. That's not great. And obviously that's the strength of the Syracuse offense. It's calm accord in the passing game with Gadsden and all those great receivers. So I think Syracuse moves the ball on NC State. And I think NC State can move the football a little bit on Syracuse. So I do like this over a little bit, 54 and 1/2. I'm not taking a team that's only 6 against the spread. That's NC State this season. They have not covered a number. I get it. They're a home dog. Syracuse is off of, you know, back and forth. Big time overtime win against UNLV. It's not the greatest of spots for Syracuse to lay points on the road, but I'd still prefer Syracuse. NC State's a very tough team for me to back right now. C-Mac, what do you think? Yeah, I mean, why would you want to back the team? Yeah, it's 6. When you don't cover numbers, you're not going to get my money. A whole team that hasn't been great and has had a shit defense all year. And they still lost. Out right his favorites at home. And a shit defense. And I still think they're just not correcting. There's totals were in the 40, you know? And they bumped it up. Last week, though, Wake was so bad, I'm like, that game should get over. And they gave it 34 to Wake. NC State's defense just isn't that good. Like, is this maybe a team in NC State? If Bailey's in, starts playing well. But now, I want it back maybe towards the end of the year. And like, I'm not getting enough in this game. So I do mean Syracuse a little bit. Maybe look at just their team total. McCorch has been able to throw. It seems like he's 350 every week. I don't know what changes. I know they're off the big, big win. It's not the easiest place to play. But right now, they're just a better football team. So I just lean Syracuse here. For me, it's definitely Syracuse or pass. I want no part of the NC State. 0 and 6 against the spread. I've said this a million times. We have teams this deep into the season. They haven't covered a number. I'm not back in them until I see them cover a number first. And obviously, we haven't seen that yet with NC State. Very disappointing year for Dave Dorn. This was supposed to be an ACC contender. And hardly anything resembling one right now. Missouri and UMass. We've got Missouri 27 and 1/2 point road favorites. 53 and 1/2 the total in that game. I would-- it was a terrible look for Missouri against Texas A&M. That was a team that we thought we could compete with. And you were just blown off the field. You were not-- you look like a complete-- you look like Peewee football, JV football, compared to Texas A&M in that game. 41 to 10. Brady Cook struggled. They made Brady Cook look bad. 13 to 31. There was no run game with Nate Noelle, the transfer from App State. Other than Luther Burden, who had 82 receiving yards. They kept everyone else in that receiving corn check. And then the defense was shredded. And this was my concern, C-Mac, coming into the year with Missouri, was that their defense lost a lot of pieces from last year. It didn't look that way early. But when you play Buffalo and Murray State and Boston College and your defensive numbers may look better than they are, and then you played a Vanderbilt team that almost beat you at home 30 to 27. They did struggle on defense in that game. And then they just got just whipped on that side of the football by a returning Connor Wegman at quarterback. And this Texas A&M offense that did whatever they wanted against Missouri, it was ugly. I mean, they're giving up big pass plays, 276 through the air, only four incomplete passes on 22 pass attempts for Wegman. They could not stop Laveon Moss, who had just a huge day, 138 rushing yards, three rushing touchdowns in the win for A&M. A lot of people are throwing around the F word when it comes to Missouri after that game. And no, not the four letter F word I'm talking about. Rod, I can't believe how many times I saw people throw that word out there about Missouri after that A&M loss, that they're frauds, that they're not really that good. I'd pump the breaks on that. Clearly, they're not maybe as good as you maybe thought, but I don't know about frauds. Here's the problem though. Missouri's got another SEC game next week with Auburn, and this is nestled in between. And UMass has been a sneaky little points bread team so far this year, especially as underdogs. Now, first game against Toledo, they covered as a 17 point dog, the last time, and then 15 and a half point dog against Miami O, they covered, they lost by three on the road. And then at Northern Illinois, they covered again, they were 17 point dogs, they got bed all the way down to 14, they lost 34-20. So three and O against the spread this year for UMass as a double digit underdog. So, but it's, I feel like I could only take UMass because they've been good double digit dogs. Fomachan has been able to move the football a little bit for them from the quarterback spot. He's been all right. Their defense is still a little shaky. And look, if Northern Illinois doesn't turn the ball over as much, they did give up 367 rushing yards to Northern Illinois, even though they got the cover for me last week, that is a concern. But you do look at the UMass defense, and the UMass defense has actually been okay against the pass. And that's probably the strength of Missouri offensively is how they can throw the football with those great receivers and with Brady Cook throwing it to them. So, I don't know, I'm still leaning UMass here. That's a lot of points for Missouri to be laying on the road. I know they're gonna be maybe angry in a bad mood, but then they play Auburn in the SEC. Are they really gonna be focused and wanting to whip UMass pillar to post for 60 minutes? I'm not sure. I'm definitely a minute mentor pass here. C-Mac, what do you think? - Well, they better be, 'cause they just got their ass whipped. - I can say, man. - What I've heard about with taking UMass is that maybe it is 40 to nothing or something, and they wake up out. - I worry about that a little bit. Yeah. And maybe this is like take Missouri first half in this one. I kinda thought too, right now, this isn't over four touchdowns. That deal a little bit, I mean, we're right there, but every point counts here. UMass, look pretty good. I liked them when they were getting, what was it, 14? Against-- - Miami Old, Northern Illinois, Toledo, who covered all those games. - Covered them all. They had the bad loss to Buffalo. Like, I think Missouri does what they want, but this is a little bit sleepy spot, but after loss, they should be ready to go. One thing with Missouri was their defense. Like, they need to get back to it. Like, obviously, A&M, 276, but I was, they ran all over 236 on the ground. I thought the Missouri defense was a little bit better, and they got that ass kicked last week. So it's back to practice, I think, for the defense and this is a team they should be able to take care of, but I don't know if I can get there, but I hope they, if you take them, I hope they cash for you. - Yeah, give them a strike. - The strike, I love an ugly dog. - Yeah, the strike, the secondary, though, for you, Mass, their 19th, as far as passing yard allowed per game. Pretty solid there. - They haven't played anybody, but, yeah. - Well, they played Toledo. Toledo's got a good passing attack, I think, at least. They're all right. - Yeah. - The other teams, you're right. There's some issues with, you know, quality of passing attack, but Toledo's the one that they played okay. Well, they did give up 38, but they covered in that game. Yeah, that would be the concern here, obviously. At a point, they've been good to me. I think that's another part of it, too. I've been cashing multiple times with UMass in this double-digit dog role, so I guess that's kind of another reason why I'm-- - Some of these teams, you get on, it's been Charlotte for me this year, Monroe, for me, multiple games. I had UMass once, not having it twice, but I get it. - All right, I put this game on the schedule. It's a Mac game, but it's a good Mac game. It's two teams, I think, could win this conference. Northern Illinois and Bowling Green. Bowling Green, 3.0 favorites, 47 and 1/2 the total. Northern Illinois last week struggled with UMass, but got the job done ultimately. They did have a lot of turnovers. Ethan Hampton's a solid quarterback, but man, he has a bad turnover, it seems, every week. And, you know, thankfully, the run game bailed the mode against UMass. The past game didn't really deliver all that much, although the conditions were kind of windy for that football game, but nevertheless, see if they can fare a little bit better offensively. I think Bowling Green is kind of the last couple of games that hit a bit of a wall. Just because, you know, look who they played. They played A&M, they played Penn State, they played so many of these big-time games in non-conference, and they kind of hit a wall 'cause they lost to Old Dominion. It wasn't a good look for them to lose that game, and they struggled with Akron last week. And I took Bowling Green after losing Old Dominion, thinking they would whip Akron, and they barely won. They had to hang on and get a stop at the end to get the win against Akron. So Bowling Green has kind of fallen back a little bit after that very impressive showing they had a non-conference play. They still have only one win on the year, but again, I definitely think they're much better than a one-win team because they had a tough schedule. They had a couple of games that went against them, but we'll see how they fare. Well, actually, I should say they've won two games now after the win against Akron over the weekend, but look, ODU, they should have won that, but A&M, Penn State, they played a pretty tough schedule here, which should serve them well for Mac play. Of course, Northern Illinois has played a couple of good teams, too, NC State, Notre Dame. Great game, I'm looking forward to this. This is one of the better games, certainly one of the best group of five games on Saturday, but I'm leading Bowling Green at home. Anything minus three or better with Bowling Green at home. I like Basilac more than Hampton. I think the defense is kind of maybe a slight edge to NIU, but Bowling Green's defense is capable at home. And I still thought coming into the year, Bowling Green would be better than NIU. NIU would be good, but Bowling Green would be even better. So at three or better, I'm gonna go with Bowling Green here. Should be a good game, though, in this one. See, Mac, what do you think? The one thing I was just trying to check was Bowling Green's defense against the run. I just wanted to double check their numbers. 'Cause Northern Illinois, they got to run it, and that's what they do here. Yeah, I mean, that's their identity. Hampton, I mean, last week, only like 50 yards. They are weaker against the run Bowling Green, so that is a concern here for me matchup-wise, yeah. Okay, and I'm like, the Notre Dame, he was 10 and 19, 198, and if he does turn it over, it kind of, it's just, he is what he is. Northern Illinois has been, it's kind of beat up on Bowling Green the last few years. And this is a tough game, 'cause I think at home, Bowling Green could win this one, but I'm kind of interested in Northern Illinois. I just, it's, you know- You can find Northern Illinois last year in the loss. So Bowling Green probably deserved it better. It's a great game, luckily, this is a good game. You could, this one of those games, or it's a good game, it's two good teams, two Mac contenders, you can make a case for both sides, yeah. Yeah, if they could run it, well, they're in it. If Bowling Green can stuff it, take that away, they could win this and cover, but I'm not so sure that happens. Yeah, this is a good one. Well, keep in mind too, Mac Play only started last week, so both of these teams are, forget their overall record, these two teams are 1-0 in conference play so far. So basically, they're definitely in the mix when it comes, that's a good point. Phil the kill of Northern Illinois Toledo next week, another big game for them. Yeah, this should be big for them 'cause they should know Bowling Green's a really good team, you should be focused, but we will see on Saturday, that's a good game. Louisville, Virginia. Louisville, seven point road favorites. Total in this game, 54 and a half across the board. Great comeback by Virginia. Let's give them some credit, Calandria. You know, they went with a quarterback instead of the musket man this year, and Calandria is delivered for this football team. He's played very, very well for them. So we'll see how they fare here, Virginia against, this is a step up in class though, for Virginia. You know, Louisville, pretty good football team, albeit coming off back-to-back losses, Notre Dame and SMU. I was very surprised the Louisville defense had the issues they did against SMU, to the extent they did. Kevin Jennings just ripped them up, 281 through the air, 113 on the ground from the quarterback, running the football as well. Kevin Jennings for SMU and that win against Louisville. So see if they can bounce back on defense. Their offense is still playing very well. Chuck, Tyler Schuck, another good game. Isaac Brown running the ball that got Jacore Brooks and Amari Huggins, Bruce, two very good receivers for this Cardinals offense. Virginia is at home though, you know, and we look at them at home this year. They beat BC last week, came back. Did lose to Maryland by double digits, but they had a lot of turnovers in that game, came back against Wake. So they've been the comeback kids a little bit this year. They came back to beat Wake. They came back to beat Boston College last week. We'll see how they fare here in this one. Last year at Louisville, Virginia was a 20 and a half point dog, I remember this game and Louisville with 31-24. It was a pretty even game, as far as total yardage is concerned. So see how this one goes, you know, Virginia, I look at them and this kind of game, I could see it going over the total because against the better offenses, they faced Wake, 61 points, it went over the total. Coastal Carolina, 67 points in that game, it went over the total. BC stayed under and Maryland stayed under. But again, the Maryland game might have even gone over the total if they didn't turn it over as much as they did Virginia. So I lead over, I think it's tough from a side perspective. I definitely think Louisville's a better team, but they've lost two very respectable teams, Notre Dame and SMU and back-to-back weeks. But I don't know if I'm ready to lease a full seven with Louisville here. Seamak, what do you think? - Yeah, no way here. I'm on Virginia in this game. - Well with the old ones, yeah. - Three and one, ATS. I mean, BC, they were down last week and just came roaring back in that fourth quarter field goal. They get the touchdown, they get the two point conversion and then that fumble recovery for the touchdown. And that was it, 18 points in the fourth and they win it. I was impressed a little bit where they went and kind of beat down Coastal Carolina at home. I love the spot with them getting more than a touchdown. I saw enough with Louisville, the offense is good. And this game could be tight. That's why I want the touchdown. It's seven, seven and a half here with Virginia. Shock can throw it. - But this Louisville defense still has issues. I think the 18 that can move it. And I think Virginia can. Louisville too, you talked about the total. That game went over. They've been good four and one to the over this year. And they get to SMU. And they gave up plenty of big plays in that game. I guess SMU, especially early. SMU at 24 after the first. So I think both teams will have success moving it, but give me the home dog here with the touchdown. I'll take that all day. I'll dare, you know, shock. I really think it's more of the Louisville defense. Like to do enough here where they went by margin. So no longer. - No, I agree. That was a very good deal. That was actually a solid defense they had under Jeff Brom last year. They're way weaker on that side of the ball this year. That's the issue. - Oh, they played Miami too, Louisville too, right? And that's their next game. A little look at it maybe. - That's probably why they're four and one to the over too. I think their offense is a lot better with Tyler Shock than with Jack Plummer. You know, I think we can all agree with that, but their defense is definitely not as good this year. So their offense is a lot better, but their defense is a lot worse. It looks like this year, Louisville. And that's another reason why they've been trending over so far this season. All right, Florida and Tennessee. Tennessee 15 and a half point home favorites. 54, the total here in this game. Okay, I don't want to push the panic button. If you're a Mr. Rocky top here in Tennessee, but I will say this about that lost Arkansas. Arkansas is capable of a game like that when they're on and it wasn't a great game from their offense, but they did enough. What I was impressed with, or maybe unimpressed with Tennessee's offense, which had done a number on everybody. And it was a very pedestrian night for Niko Yumali Ava, only 156 passing yards. Dylan Sampson did run for 140. That was probably the strength of the offense for Tennessee, but all things considered Arkansas did a solid job in the Tennessee defense, you know, they gave up 266 through the air. I don't think they respected Taylor Greene's ability to throw the football. Why would they? I mean, he's been very erratic. Taylor Greene throwing the football, not Saturday night though, man. 19 for 27, 266 through the air. That's one of the best passing performances I've seen from Taylor Greene in his career, Boise and Arkansas combined. It was very, very impressive. And that carried the Arkansas offense to big. And remember, Tennessee's secondary is the one area of the team that's a little bit weak. And he kind of picked on that last week in that big Arkansas win as double digit home dogs against Tennessee's. Now you got Tennessee off a loss. They should be refocused, ready to go. But then you start to look at who they played. They played Chattanooga, NC State, who are way down. They haven't even covered a point spread this year, which we mentioned earlier. Kent State, who's a Bismol, Oklahoma, who has a very pedestrian offense. You start to look at that Tennessee schedule, and it's not like you've been facing the best teams or just a plethora of phenomenal football teams to this point. Then you played someone that was probably a little bit better than NC State, definitely better than NC State on par with Oklahoma. Probably better than Oklahoma offensively, probably on par with them or close to it defense. Maybe not quite as good defensively, but you get what I mean. Definitely someone better offensively than the kind of struggling they lose to Arkansas. The problem is, is Florida in that category, where this is gonna be now a tough challenge for Tennessee. I'm not sure. But Tennessee or Florida, rather, they beat up a bad Mississippi State team. I really wasn't that impressed. But after a bi-week, they focused against UCF and the defense played their best game, and they did whatever they wanted on offense. And I think they realized what UCF's struggling mightily on offense to move the ball. We can just sit on the lead, and that's exactly what they did. But Florida is showing some signs of life in a pulse again these last couple of games. Can they show enough of a pulse here to stay within 15 and a half points? I will say this, and I'm not a big, always a big series history guy, C-Mac, because I'm usually someone that says it's all about this year's teams, this year's spot, this year's matchup. But you can't deny Florida against Tennessee, eight and two straight up, seven and three against the spread, the last 10 meetings. They covered last year at Florida, 29, 16, a Florida one outright, last year against Tennessee, 29 to 16, back in September. And they played, they were right there with Tennessee. So is this too many points? Even with Tennessee coming off a loss against Arkansas, where you would think they have full focus. And we still think they're better than Florida, but are they enough of a better football team to win by what now, 16, 17 points here in this game? So we'll see how that one plays out, but I think it's a tricky game. So I still firmly believe Tennessee is better than Florida, maybe a lot better than Florida, 'cause we also can't forget that when Florida played like one of the class teams in college football this year, Miami, they got schooled, they got housed, 41, 17. So tricky game, it really is, but that Florida series history is probably gonna keep me off Tennessee. C, Mac, what do you think here? - That was the biggest, biggest thing. This Florida team couldn't stop anybody on the run, and UCF couldn't do anything, 40 for 108. That was it. - That's to you, I had been over there, oldie, with UCF Florida and UCF. - I had the over. - I had the over. - Yeah, 'cause Florida hadn't stopped anything. And I didn't think they did there. - What happened to RJ Harvey? This guy couldn't be stopped, and now all of a sudden, two weeks in a row, he's been just totally spottled up for UCF. - Yeah, we'll see, I mean, Florida, that's the best I've seen them look. - Yeah. - Flat out, and the line went against everyone. It was moving to UCF last week. That went from, you know, then the favorite, basically, by three. So I mean, hats off to Florida there. I think if you like Tennessee, I mean, what are we gonna get the bad Florida defense that just I saw him play better and stop the run, or, you know, that played better or this bad defense that I saw get, you know, shredded against Miami. I think if you like Tennessee, you look at their team total in this game. And that last game, penalties, they were just, that team, they just out of sorts. I mean, congrats to Arkansas. I'm glad I took them there late on Saturday. The defense was good, and they were good down the stretch. And Deco just, he was just off, you know? It was kind of just like running for his life, dinkin' dunk. I, it just, it did not look good. Then the defense looked all right, can't Florida. Yeah, I still think Tennessee defense is pretty good. Maybe it's not top five or 10, but I think it's, you know, top 40 for sure. Can they hold down Mertz and this Florida team? Florida's had a lot of success. Like you talked about first Tennessee and over the years. So, can they cover this double digit? Can I go to Florida here? You know, they've, they've been one team that just hasn't been good to me the last couple of years. Yeah, sometimes it just got a pass. When you have a team that you clearly have struggle with, either betting on or against them, that's always good. Yeah, it's them, 'cause they're horrible. They can't get the job done, you know, they, you know, they use, but I'm tempted with them, I don't know. All right, next up, we've got Clemson and Wake Forest. Clemson, 20 and a half point road favorite, 60 and a half. The total Clemson team total over stands out to me. Wake is just abysmal. They are so bad defensively. But the good news is they put up 34, their own offense was very good against NC State, which allowed them to beat them, but their defense still struggled against a guy that was, you know, number two quarterback on the depth chart, CJ Bailey. So, this is still not a good Wake defense at all. We saw them get ripped by Louisiana, the raging Cajuns the week before, given up 41, 40 to Ole Miss, 31 to Virginia, blue elite in that game. I mean, Clemson should be able to have a ton of success here offensively. They only play Virginia after this. So, there's no look ahead spot for Clemson here in this game. Last times, last two games, they were at Wake. You know, it's funny is last year, they struggled offensively, but we know the Clemson Tigers last year weren't, had a down year, especially on offense, but they've scored 51 and 37 the last two times they've visited Wake Forest. I'll say this about club Nick. He's certainly playing better, 14 touchdowns, two interceptions, 64.3% completions. And when it comes to Wake's defense, C-Mac, it's both ways. They're giving up 4.7 yards per carry, 168 rushing yards per game, almost 300 passing yards per game. So, whether it's hate club Nick through the air, film off on the ground, Clemson should be able to put up some points and have success here. So, I leaned into the 20 and a half lay in it too, but I do feel the team total is the better option here with Clemson in this game. C-Mac, what do you think? - Yes, 'cause I just, all of a sudden, can Wake stop anything? You know, here? I mean, you have a lot of-- - I feel so far. - 38, you know, they just gave up 30. Well, this 40, they're not very good. So, this is a lot though, three scores. And on the flip though, I wanted to look at this more, can this Wake offense, maybe, you know, do some damage against-- - A lot higher, 'cause the full game over is my lean, absolutely. - Yeah, I think you could get there. I mean, Wake, the overs, if you've been betting them four and one, they have been money. I've been on a couple of them. And last week, I was kicking myself, I wasn't on that. The Wake Forest NC State, which I thought was a little light at 53, 'cause Clemson should be able to do what they want. Yeah, maybe look at their team total. I don't know, if I can get over the 21 here, I might take Wake Forest. This is a big number, not a very good football team, but I think they could maybe move the ball here and hang around. - Yeah, and even if they're down-- - And they dominated it. - Back door it, Savannah. - Exactly, yeah. - Some of these games have been close last year's, but Clemson dominated them. I think they've won over 10 in a row, 12 in a row, I believe. Well, the last couple, you know, last year's game-- - Wake's covered three or four against Clemson. Three of the last four. - Yeah, they've covered. They've lost out right, but the last couple, they've been right there, so. I'm gonna have to go with the ugly dog here and wake. - All right, hopefully it's one of those deals. Clemson goes over their team total, but Wake covers. That could happen. Like, Clemson could go over their team total, but Wake Forest covers the full game number. - Oh, yeah. - That could totally happen in this game. - It's tough not seeing Clemson at least getting third. Like at least getting 35, like right there. But I think Wake, you know, at home here, could score a little bit. - Yep, if the offense is Ross says in the chat, bogged down a little bit last week in the second app Clemson against Florida State. So, you know, that'll make it, but again, Florida State's had issues, but they've still got a better defense than Wake based on what I've seen. So, like I said, I have a hard time trusting Wake to stop anything at the moment. All right, Mississippi State, Georgia. Georgia 32 and a half point home favor. It's 53 and a half the total in this game. I mean, I'm not laying it with Georgia. I know Miss Mississippi State is absolutely terrible, brutal and Jeff Levy, it's a work in progress with him with this program. I'm not sure they made the best hire either. If he's cut out to turn this program around, it's just been dreadful here with Mississippi State and Starkville since the passing of Mike Leach. It's been downhill since then. This Georgia team though, they failed to cover four straight and their only point spread cover, as we talked about, was that opener against Clemson. It's not easy to back this team. And I'll say this about Mississippi State. They played mighty Texas last week, C-Mac 35-13. They covered the number only lost by 22, the Van Buren boys, Michael Van Buren. You know, he played a little bit better for Mississippi State at the quarterback spot. Defense at least played at least a little bit better. Oh, they still gave up almost 500 yards to arch manning and company, but still at least a little bit better than we thought. I can't believe I'm saying this, but I lean Mississippi State here, but I don't know if I'll bet it. I don't. It's just Georgia to me with what we've seen from them. They haven't covered since the Clemson game. They're not getting to these margins as big favorites this year so far, as bigger favorites like they are here. So probably gonna be a pass here. C-Mac, what do you think? - I mean, Georgia just, they haven't covered like I just until like, why would you want to put your money on? And last week with Mississippi State and Auburn team total state under. That was what I liked in that game. They stayed out of their 13. I thought the defense would bounce back in that one. Mississippi State, they just field goals. I mean, that's the difference when you can't get in and score against Texas. 'Cause that first half a football, I thought that's the best they played. You know, well, I know Manning had a big, I don't know, 50, 55 yarder right before there. They scored a touchdown, but Mississippi State was moving the ball, but just settling for a couple field goals and then they were down 14-6. And then, oh, Hum, Texas took care of business. Mississippi State hung in there. Their defense still is awful. Like, just, I don't know how they stop really Georgia at all, but this is a ton of points. I take Mississippi State. Give me the dog or nothing in this game. - Yeah, I'm coming. - Let's see Georgia cover, but I'm kind of with you. - I am. - Yeah, I mean, I don't know if I bet this, but yeah, I mean, the dog. - And you're right, there's, back in the Georgia offenses, you know, they had the great second half against Alabama, but game-to-game consistent, like the Kentucky game, they struggled. They had spurts against Auburn where they looked great, but to cover a number like this, you got to be pedal to the medal on offense for the full game. - A little lower, yeah. - That's what we're going to have to see here from them. All right, Cincinnati and UCF. UCF 3.0 favorites, 59, the total. I'm already on Cincinnati here, and I can understand why this went from four down to three. UCF, I'm officially starting to worry, panic a little bit, that Florida game was dreadful, how they stuck in mud against that defense, that whole game. And then of course, they got walloped by Colorado, couldn't stop the pass, and should-who are Sanders before that. This might be wrong team favored, because Cincinnati's a team, I circled the bet against before the season, and they've proven me wrong. They're better than I thought. And I'm not a big Scott Satterfield fan, but I got to give them credit where credits do. This has been a solid football team. I know they lost to Texas Tech in their last game, a heartbreaker, but they still scored 41. I think the guy that's impressed me, and he's probably been one of the more most improved quarterbacks of the year, is Brendan Soresby, the Indiana transfer. - Yeah, he's been wrong. - Much better this year. He's got 12 touchdowns and one interception. He's protected the football. He's completing 66% of his passes, nine yards per pass attempt. Like I said, 12 to one TDI and T ratio, 165 rushing yards as well. He has really done a nice job. He's a much improved player at the quarterback position for this Bearcats team. And then you look at the offense on the other side, the spotty against Colorado, couldn't get anything going against Florida, and the UCF defense has been abysmal most of the year. Now in the second half, they played well against Florida, but I think Florida took it late on them. Just run the ball, kill the clock. They didn't pile it on much against UCF, but when that game was there to be one in the first half, UCF's defense couldn't stop anything. Graham Mertz going down the field with that Florida offense over and over against them. So it's still not to be a great defense UCF. I think Cincinnati can go in there and win. Then the mystique of the bounce house is gone because Colorado went in there and thumped them as double digit underdogs. So yeah, Cincinnati for me, C-Mac, what do you think? - Yeah, and these have been really good games the last couple of years between these in line kind of just like this, they're like two and a half, three, three and a half and tight games before that Cincinnati when they were humming that success and could be-- - By week two, off a bite for the Cincinnati as well. - Off a bite. UCF can't run the football for what I saw. I just, I was just, I thought they could not run against that Florida run defense. I like to sit, you know, it's so easy. He couldn't yet could throw it. I mean, you get into some trouble, but they had some shoot outs before, you know, before he had left and he does have an arm and they got into it. I mean, the huge win against Houston and then the back and forth with Texas Tech. To me, this is Sensi. I'll take the three, but I think Moneyline. I know this is the bounce house. Usually I don't love going against it there. Maybe it's the bounce back for UCF, but I think Cincinnati will have success moving the football here in this game. - That's why I like this spot even more for Sensi 'cause yeah, it's a bounce back for UCF. They've obviously lost, it's a bounce back for Sensi. You know, they lost that game to Texas Tech two weeks ago for the bye week. So now they did have some injuries at running back and they did have some injuries on defense, Sensi. So check that throughout the course of the week. Hopefully they're healthier. Hopefully the bye week helps that when it comes to-- - Yeah, they have a couple of linemen. D-lineings, yeah. - And that you could tell against Texas Tech, they really struggled on defense. Hopefully they're healthier. If they are, I think they can win that game. All right, Georgia Tech, North Carolina. Georgia Tech, six point road favorites, 59, the total. This is one of my favorite bets of the week, early in the week. Didn't even hesitate. In fact, I jumped on it four and a half I got. Last night on Georgia Tech, it's up to six. I agree with it. North Carolina's Fade City for me right now. The James Madison loss was the start of the downfall. Blowing that 20 to nothing lead, giving up 21 at answer to your arch rival Duke and losing 21-20 after that. And then last week against Pitt, you know what? They compete, they're okay on offense still. So Colby Criswell's all right. And the offense has Amari on Hampton. He's a very good running back, very balanced offense, but that defense sucks. It just does, let's be honest. They couldn't protect the lead against Duke. He gave up 70 to James Madison. Pitt went up and down the field all game. You know what was just, you're death by 1,000 cuts, that old saying and dying a slow painful death. That was watching North Carolina's Civ defense. The final drive of that game against Pitt. Pitt's just methodically just winding the clock down, running the ball down their throat. Holstein, every, Holstein, every third down conversion, he made it on that drive to put that game away and give Pitt the 10 point lead in that game. That tells you all you need to know. That's just a defense, not very good. It's worn down. It doesn't get turnovers. It doesn't get stops when they need it. And it's North, and you gotta wonder where the psyche is. It's now three straight losses. The season slipping away. Mac Brown's probably done, you know, after this season. - Yeah, he's gone. - It's not coming back. Yeah, for me, this was a pretty easy decision. Anything less than a touchdown. Lay it with Haynes King and company, Georgia Tech. Now, I know on the road at times, and I know his favorites at times, they've not always been great. We know that. And Syracuse earlier this year, and there's some other examples, but no, I think this is Georgia Tech all the way still for me in spite of that. See, Mac, what do you think? - I think you have to look at, I know the Syracuse, I didn't want them there. And like I said, they got lucky a little bit with Duke. You know, Duke had them, under game. They scored a touchdown. They go right down the field again, missed the field goal. And Georgia Tech got that last touchdown, 24-14. And Duke went down again, but they had to go for it. Couldn't get anything else. I'm like, whew, that's fucking, that hurt. So that was the right side. And that's the thing with Georgia Tech, his favorite. But how can you back North Carolina, Savannah? This team doesn't cover numbers last year. They're over this year, this team, even as a dog, and I can't back them at all. And what do we get? Georgia Tech's been a great under team. You know, some of these games they've had in years past have just been shoot outs. Obviously, 'cause North Carolina doesn't have a defense, so go back and forth. I don't know if I mess with that kind of with Georgia Tech, the underspend's so good. And some of these North Carolina games are offenses are good enough to get over. You know what I mean? They couldn't score, they couldn't score in the fourth. You know, this last week, at all. So I don't know if I mess with that. Georgia Tech, the under's just the money. I had a piece of it in the Duking too, but I agree with you here. And I hate Key really as a favorite, but I think kind of in this number, you gotta take 'em. Yeah, I mean, you would be taking a shot in the dark right now with a team that's dying, with the coach on his way out, with Brown, and a team that hasn't covered a number to basically say, you know, can North Carolina stand up? Maybe they do, but... - Can they rally the troops? - I'm gonna have to see it before I believe it. So that's why this week, now last week, with that pit North Carolina game, I had pit, I had pit team total over, both of those counts. - Yeah, solid, I got there. - Two game over, and it fell short, and it fell short. - It should have fell. - Carolina didn't do enough. So that's why this game, I'm leaning more to where Georgia Tech and Georgia Tech team total over. Last on the full game over 'cause, you know, and Georgia Tech's defense is better this year, you know, than we saw last year. - It is. - Don't talk about that, it's getting better. - It definitely is the number show. - It's, you know, I know that, yeah, it's been solid. - And pits offensive line, which is pretty solid. War down North Carolina's defense as that game went on, Georgia Tech can do the same. Georgia Tech on paper's got one of the better offensive lines in the ace to see this year. So that's a problem for North Carolina as this game goes on. Speaking of problems, how about Purdue? They're taking on Illinois, Illinois 19 and 1/2 point, home favorites 50, the total. Nice to see Ryan Walters fix the problem with the offense. He's clearly thought that fire in the offensive coordinator would be what fixes it and they put up a whopping six points last week against Wisconsin. God, they're really mad. They are awful. They've now 0-4 straight up, 0-4 against the spread. The only win in cover was their opener against Indiana State and FCS team. Look at these scores to 66-7 to Notre Dame, 38-21 to Oregon State, 28-10 to Nebraska, 52-6. That was a shellacking in Madison for this Purdue team against Wisconsin. They are unbackable, completely and utterly unbackable right now. This offense is pathetic. The change in the OC didn't do shit. I don't understand why Ryan Walters is doing that anyway. You just don't have personnel to move the football. Hudson cards bad that they have no run game to speak of whatsoever. All line is getting destroyed, blown up weekend and week out. Can't have any part of Purdue right now. None, 0 at this point in time. Meanwhile, you have Illinois off a buy for Bilema and off the 21-7 loss to Penn State on that Saturday night where they cover the number, they hung in there, but the offense and Luke Altmeyer finally looked a little bit like Luke Altmeyer again in that game. He kind of struggled, but this isn't Penn State's defense on the road. This is Wisconsin's, or this is Purdue's defense at home, off a buy in a bounce back spot. I think, and look, let's not forget, even though Altmeyer seemed to struggle against Penn State, he was lighting it up before that. Went to Nebraska, they beat the cornhuskers, he played a great game, played great before that. The Kansas game he played well. I think they get back to doing whatever they want on offense here, Illinois. I think Altmeyer can have success again, throw in the ball, Caden Fiegen can run the ball, they've got Zakari Franklin, the UTSA transfer at receiver, who's become a big weapon for Illinois this year. I don't normally lay it like this type of number with Brett Bilema, but I think I'm making an exception here, C-Mac. I think they drill them personally. Purdue is that bad. The three touchdowns are more off a buy and off a loss prior to the buy. I think Illinois shows up and just drubs and drills this sad sack, sorry ass Purdue team and a horrible head coach, horrible in Ryan Walters. So yeah, I'm laying it with Illinois, C-Mac, what do you think? - If you're ever gonna do it, this seems like now too. And he's even tough, Purdue's kind of had Illinois's number over the past years, but this Purdue team is just awful. I know the last few years are in the great, but it's been really bad this year. I mean, Wisconsin got the total on their own and just beat them down again. And they've got their ass with consistently by Wisconsin. Yeah, Illinois off the buy, this team just keeps covering. So I mean, I get why it's like take them or nothing in this one. Is this one of these games like, you know, there's a big favor like this, you know, do they cover a ton, but Purdue show nothing. They're at the bottom, their offense is at the bottom and their defense is at the bottom in like all the categories. If you look at this Purdue team, just when you score in six, you score 10 against Nebraska. I mean, that was only an 18 point game. That was at home. On the road, you know, they've got beat down. You know, at Oregon State, 38, 20, that 21 there, they only had seven against Notre Dame. Yeah, Illinois, Illinois team total here. I'll be on that. I think, I might not mess around with the team total. It seems like these teams get it, I mean, they should get 35 or so in this game, right? - Yep, you know what's funny is that Ryan Walters was the defensive coordinator here at Illinois under Brett Villema before he got the Purdue job. And yet you're right about Purdue. Purdue's beaten Illinois outright four straight times. - Yeah, they've had their numbers. - So that does, that does, it's a small little fear I have, but I just, I think, if you're Brett Villema, you've got to stop this nonsense. How can you let this guy that coached under you come in here and beat you again when they've looked this bad, so far in the last four weeks? No, this is where it's got to be. You got to put your foot down if you're Villema and say enough of this, we're getting it done here. - And this is one of the worst, this may be the worst Purdue team I've ever seen. - Yeah. - They always a decent football team. But this is their tough time. So last few years haven't been great, but this has been real bad. - How bad are Ryan Brown, Marcus Davila and Bennett Meredith, three other quarterbacks in this Purdue roster? If they can't even get in because Hudson Card's been terrible and they still haven't made a change. It's terrible, bad situation, bad football, right now in West Lafayette. All right, Wisconsin and Rutgers. Rutgers two and a half point home favorites. 40, the total in this game. I mean, Rutgers at home lay in less than a field goal. It's hard for me to go against that. Cash to ticket with them in this very point spread range a couple of weeks ago against Washington on that Friday night where they got the job done at home. I mean, this great Shiano is physically and mentally tough teams. That being said, they're going to have to play better offensively here than they did against Nebraska, losing 14-7 over the weekend. It was definitely ugly for the offense. Colli Akmanis was awful. And that's the biggest fear I have with Rutgers this year is that guy as their quarterback, 15 of 37, two interceptions, one touchdown, sub 50% completions. Manungai was bottled up by the Nebraska defense. And when they can't run, they can't move it on offense, Rutgers. They have to be able to run the football and credit to Nebraska, they were great on defense. But Rutgers defense was really good. Dylan Ryola did not have a good game. I mean, 13 of 27, only 134 passing yards. Nebraska really struggled to run the ball. It's just Nebraska's offense was slightly better than Rutgers. And that was the difference in that game. Now they're back home. Wisconsin on the road this year, they lost 38-21 at USC. It was their only other true road game this year. It was the game where they had a good first half and then they absolutely crumbled in the second half. They get blown out by Alabama. They don't cover against Western Michigan. Their only cover was against Purdue. One of the worst teams going in the power conference football right now. To me, there's still, the jury is out there on Wisconsin against this Rutgers defense going on the road and being able to move the football. I'm not totally sold on Brayden Lock. Yeah, he played well against Purdue, but everyone's playing well against Purdue. And he still had two interceptions against Purdue as well, Brayden Lock. So Tawy Walker running the football, that's not going to be easy to do against Rutgers. Rutgers is a very good run defense. So I don't know if Wisconsin's offense, and you can say what you want C-Mac about Colleuk Monis, the Greek stallion. He's not that good, and their own offense isn't great. But I don't know if Wisconsin's going to be able to run the football with great deal of success here against Rutgers in this game. I'm leaning Rutgers at anything less than a field goal at home. And definitely, even though this total is low at 40, it's under or nothing for me in this game. I don't see Wisconsin marching up and down the field, and I don't see Rutgers even at home marching up and down the field either. So Rutgers and under, for me, if I were to get involved in this one, C-Mac, what do you think here? - Yeah, low total. I still think this could stay under the number. Both defenses are pretty good. And I don't trust, you know, Rutgers, you got that win against Washington, but man, they got outplayed in that game. And that keeps stayed under. You know, they got the win, 21, 18, has just, you know, one point favorites covered. And they go, you know, tons of wind in that game, like, you know, it gets to Nebraska. The offense in the end just can't get going. You know, hats off to the brass is deep. It's pretty good, but they're not great, but Rutgers just couldn't do anything. You know, in the end, at all, Caliac Manus, I don't, I mean, 15 to 37, I don't trust it. I want the other way, but I want three here with Wisconsin. I think there are a little bit of the better football team. I mean, I like Rutgers and I like to back them a ton, but even as a short favorite here, this would be a good win for Rutgers, even after that loss, to get back and go to five and one. And I really don't love this Wisconsin team. The win was, you mentioned Locke, the picks, he can't have that in this game. So maybe it comes down to, like, one of these quarterbacks makes a couple of plays, or the defenses make a big play. A big interception, something like that, 'cause it seems like it's close. And if it's close, I want the points. So Wisconsin. - All right, next up, Kansas State and Colorado. In the big 12, Kansas State, four and a half point, road favorites, 60, 56 and a half, I should say, the total here in this game. Has Dion Sanders and Colorado turned a corner? I guess is the big question, right? Because there's no doubt the last couple of weeks, albeit the Baylor game was, you know, without a Hail Mary pass, they lose that game. Then do, you know, have a beat down like they did against UCF after that on the road. Very impressive, although not as impressive after seeing UCF stumble and sputter against Florida over the weekend. But they've covered three in a row. The road win by 28-9 against Colorado State started this little streak after the Nebraska loss. The win against Baylor, the win on the road at UCF. And outright is double digit underdogs. They're off a bi-week as well. Dion and Colorado for this game. So we'll see if they can get themselves in a place to be well prepared. Unfortunately, Kansas State, unfortunately for Colorado, Kansas State's off a bi too, from that 42-20 win over Oklahoma State at home. Probably one of the better games thrown in the football we've seen out of Avery Johnson. We know he can run, it's athletic, but 2.59 through the air, three passing touchdowns in that win against Oklahoma State. That was certainly good to see better passing attack, proficiency and efficiency and explosiveness from the passing game of K-State. We know they've got Giddens running the football, it was excellent as well. So they can be a very balanced offense if we get that version of Avery Johnson on a regular basis. And that's gonna be the question. I think what was surprising to me about the UCF game is Colorado had no run game to speak of this year. And finally they got the run game going a little bit. You know, 128 on the ground against UCF. It's a start step in the right direction. We'll see if they can keep that rolling here. Kansas State's been phenomenal at home at the Little Apple, but two road games this year, the Tulane game they nearly lost easily could have lost because I thought the Tulane Green Wave got screwed out of a game tying touchdown and it should have been a passing or, they called it offensive pass interference on Tulane and it ended up costing them. Kansas State hangs on 34, 27. They did not cover in that game. And then we all saw the BYU game. Now there was some crazy bad luck for Kansas State too as things just snowballed against them in the second and third quarter. Fumbles and punt return touchdowns and fumble return touchdowns and all that. And suddenly they were up six, nothing. And then down the 31, six to BYU in the blink of an eye. The fact remains, we've seen two data points here for Kansas State on the road. And they're all in two against the spread in those games. So I feel they can match up in the trenches with, like they could beat up Colorado in the trenches here 'cause I think K-State's better in the trenches than Colorado. But somehow, some way on the road, they've had lapses. Like I said, they almost lost a Tulane on the road. They got buried by BYU. Colorado's coming in off a bi-week with a little momentum. I'm actually leaning to Dion in the buffs here at plus four and a half. C-Mac, what do you think here? Good, big 12 matchup, K-State, Colorado. I know, so am I here. I think, yeah, from the inside out, like the lines, the offensive teams' lines are better for K-State, but Colorado, I'm just playing better, feeling it a little bit, you know, and that's what it takes to schools and at home. - There's a few more playmakers in Kansas State with Travis Hunter on both sides of the ball and-- - Oh, he's buried. - All the, wester, the receiver, I mean, they've just got better procedure, of course, the ultimate playmaker. - Of course, man. - He's been really good. This has just been a little bit, you know, tough. I know they went in a tight game and came through against Tulane. And they've been pretty good on the road. I just think this game is close, which I think it is, especially as Colorado line's been a little bit better if they can hold up with the playmakers that they have. And of course, Sanders. - That's gonna decide-- - This case states no joke in the trenches. - Yeah, and one thing I, like, the defense hasn't been, we'll see, like, 'cause I think Kansas State can move the ball in this one as well. And we get over, you know, I don't know. Colorado played a little bit more under. It's the last two have gone over. Obviously that Baylor game and the UCF. Waiting for him at home this place should be going nuts here in Boulder. I'm leading to Colorado, you know, catching the five at home. I think this game could be really good. It could win out right, or it was a close game, field goal or four points, you know, and a tight one they lose, you know. - All right, Arizona BYU, we go from the one big 12 game to another, BYU 4.0 favorites, 49 and a half, the total in this game. What's wrong with Arizona's offense? I'm starting to wonder, it's not been, not what I thought it would be, because early in the year they had some good games and they shredded to New Mexico. But really since then, 22 against Northern Arizona, seven against Kansas State, 23 against Utah, albeit they won that game. Probably a solid showing against a good defense, but then last week, Texas Tech doesn't have a great defense and they struggled. No offense. - Crazy. - And company to move the football for most of that game. It was settling for field goals, you know, Pefita with two interceptions, bad decisions, you know, and they're starting to look more and more like a team and I know they got Conley, they're running back and they've got some other receivers, but if you shut down Ted Arowa McMillan, starting to look like you shut down Arizona. So that's gonna be something to watch for. Now they have to go on the road. BYU's been one of the surprises of the year, five and oh, they've looked awesome. Now their schedule's been light in some instances, like Baylor and Wyoming and Southern Illinois, but in the two really good wins, they had SMU on the road, 18-15, outright as dogs. Kansas State at home, 38 to nine beat down. They look really good, Rhett's laugh. Jake Rhett's laugh is doing enough at the quarterback spot for this team. Without a doubt, he's got some mobility as well. You look at his numbers, 12 touchdowns, five interceptions, 61% completions can move around a little bit in the pocket. They've got outstanding receivers and Darius Lasseter and Chase Roberts. These are two terrific receivers for BYU. I'm leading a BYU here. They've got some Provo magic going. They've been very good at home. We just saw Arizona lose, you know, at home against Texas Tech. We saw them in a Utah win. So it shows you, maybe they're a good bet as road dogs. Well, Utah at Isaac Wilson, and you got a downgrade Utah with Isaac Wilson at quarterback. We talked about that earlier. Their other road game at Kansas State, they got shellac, 317 Arizona. So I just like the way BYU's going here. BYU off a buy as well, following that win against Baylor, extra time for Kalani Satake mushrooms, as I like to call them, for the BYU Cougars. So yeah, Eileen BYU here. I'm not stepping in front of this team. 5-0 straight up, 5-0 against the spread so far this season. C-Mac, what do you think, Arizona, BYU? - Yeah, I can't either. I've been on 'em three times. They took care of business. Feel the kill. Yeah, if K-State was at home, it'd be different. I think that might be a good play. - You know what's been good? BYU, the defense has been a little bit more surprising. And they've turned over, they're opportunistic. I don't know how great this defense is, but I think it's pretty good. And yeah, there's probably the Arizona this offense. I've already heard WISF that they're just not opening it up. They're not throwing it, it's just nothing's in sync. It's just not right. It made a couple big plays, of course he did at Utah. But other than that, it was very like just ho-hum. I don't know, there just seems nothing to them. And the defense gave it up last week. Can they go to Provo here? I can't do it. I think this game could be tight now, but this BYU are nothing. Like, if he has the K that K could keep this in him, but one team spent money too, and one team that was the darling last year for me in Arizona is one in four ATS. You know, year to year, I don't want them now. You know, they just haven't been there. - I chuckle at your comment there, keeping things in the, what the fuck are you saving it for? Man, it's conference play. You've had tough opponents here these last few games. Existech, Utah, what the hell are you saving it for? You've got some things you want to show in the playbooks. Show it. What are you waiting for, Arizona? Yeah, I mean, you're right, their offense has just been a little bit disappointing of late, no doubt. All right, back to the SEC, South Carolina, Alabama. Alabama, 21.0 favorites, 50 and half the total. I mean, obviously, the spot people are gonna love Alabama here, right? Bounce back after that dreadful, not dreadful lot. It is kind of dreadful 'cause they never lose to Vanderbilt, but Vanderbilt's a lot better this year. And you know, I love Bobby. So it's not as bad a loss as some people think. And look, one loss doesn't kill you anymore. Not in this today's climate of college football where there's a 12 team playoff. So from that standpoint, if you're Alabama, it's like I've said, I'll show with UNLV and some of these other teams off their first loss. It's no woe is me. You know, no moping around and feeling sorry for yourself. Get your ass up, practice hard this week and get ready to bounce back. I should be a coach. Listen to the way I'm talking here. I could get through to players with that kind of mindset. Yeah, and look, I saw enough from South Carolina last week. Look, they struggled on defense against Ole Miss and then gosh, they really like Lenora Sellers and he looked okay in camp. There's a long way to go for this guy at quarterback. It's that was, oh, whoa, that was ugly for that. South Carolina offense against Ole Miss over the weekend. They just did not move the football three points, dreadful performance, Sellers, not very efficient, one interception, run game was shut down. You got to give Lane Kiffin credit because that was a kick in the teeth loss to Kentucky and to bounce back like that against South Carolina, very impressive. But you know, losing 27-3 at home to Ole Miss and now trusting you to go on the road against an angry pissed off Alabama team. I'm not doing that. So yeah, I would lay it with Alabama or nothing, maybe a first half full game split, maybe an Alabama team total over, Milro in the offense. But actually the offense wasn't their issue against Vandy. It was deep. That's what I wanted you to. But can South Carolina exploit it? That was horrendous. That was horseshit from the South Carolina offense against Ole Miss last week. So yeah, it's Alabama or past C-Mac. What do you think here? Yeah, you know, that offense, it was a great but and the Ole Miss defense is pretty good. That's why I liked it. I mean, I had the under in the game, but I thought South Carolina could do so then and it just didn't happen. You know, it just seemed like it couldn't get anything going. In the end, yeah, they're sacked a ton. It just, it was awful there. I think it's a bounce back for Alabama. Like, I don't really want to lay three touchdowns with them though. Like, I don't, and I just, their defense is like, hey now, that second half, that course is Georgia. It's going to all those points, but, you know, Vandy last week, like, they need to get back to the drawing board a little bit, but can South Carolina take advantage of that? This is a lot, you know, I get the bounce back angle, but I'm not rushing here to lay it with Bama. No way. I would much, I would rather lay it with Alabama here than take, than lay it with Kentucky at this point in time. That's the way I see it. You know, like I said, 'cause you got Vandy coming off the bed against Spot, coming off that win and you got Alabama in the bed on Spot here off that loss, I feel more comfortable with Alabama minus 21 than Kentucky minus 14. That's, doesn't mean I'll, for sure, be on Alabama. I'm sure as hell won't be on South Carolina. I'll tell you that. All right, Stanford and Notre Dame. Notre Dame, 23 and a half point, own favorite, 45, the total in this game. Stanford, they've kind of fallen back a little bit these last two. Oh, the Clemson game, don't be fooled. They have moved the ball and they just turned it over and turned it over, stopped on downs, or they probably could have scored more and covered that game. There was nothing about the Virginia Tech game that impresses you about Stanford's offense. Lamson, the quarterback, was awful. They made the decision to go to him. He was not very good, 13 and 24. There was no run game to speak up. Credit to Virginia Tech, that was a great game, great response after just a very, very painful loss against Miami. They left it all out there, Virginia Tech. And to bounce back like they did against Stanford, very good, but for Stanford, that was ugly on the offensive side of the field. This to me is an under, C-Mac with this game, I think, because Stanford moved the ball up and down the field against Notre Dame. I'm not sure that's going to happen here in this game. We'll see if Troy Taylor goes back to Ashton Daniels this week, because clearly Justin Lamson really didn't do a lot to show he's ready to be the number one quarterback with that performance against Virginia Tech. You know what I, you know how I feel about Notre Dame when they're in this price range, 23. I don't know, I'm not interested. But do I think Stanford can be good enough offensively to stay inside this number or get inside this number? That's the question I have going into this game, C-Mac. Go ahead. - That's consistently been my question for the last couple of years. And like they showed up a little bit in that Syracuse game. I was a little bit shocked because they had gotten me when they just didn't do anything. Yeah, if Lamson, he's just, I saw enough in last year, he was awful this week. Yeah, like with Daniels, if he's alright to go and everything this week. And Notre Dame's beat the shit kind of out of Stanford. Also, they used to have some tight games, but if they don't, they have to be able to score. And I don't know if they can against this Notre Dame defense, but Notre Dame, over three touchdowns, especially at home. It just is not profitable at all. - Nope, I agree. I just can't do it, this is quickly, is Stanford scores? This could get over and Notre Dame could score enough, maybe on their own to get it over, but maybe they just need like 14 Stanford here. And Notre Dame gets, you know, mid 30s, and that'll get this over, but yeah, I don't want that either. Stanford Unders have been pretty good this year too. - Let's not forget the trees won at Notre Dame two years ago, the last time they were here, 16 to 14. - That's a lot, yeah, close one kind of. - Yeah, 16 and a half point, dogs won outright Stanford. I don't even stand for it, I am. - I take the points, sir, not the Notre Dame. - Notre Dame, all you have to do is look at this season. They've been a home favorite of more than three touchdowns twice against two max schools, Miami O and Northern Illinois. They failed to cover both of them. And of course, they lost outright to Northern Illinois. So no, in this price range, it's never a bet for me with Notre Dame. It's plus their run defense Stanford hasn't been that bad. And most of Notre Dame's offenses on the ground with Riley Leonard running, he's been kind of erratic throwing it. So the run defense is actually, they're giving up 3.2 yards per carry, 86 rushing yards per game to Stanford. - That would help out, Notre Dame should try to throw it, 'cause we all talked about Stanford's, the past defense a little bit better this year, but they were dead last year, they were dreadful. - Yeah, though, yeah, they had to open it. - Yeah, they came in at the time. - Yeah, it was Leonard. - That's gonna be the big question here. All right, Red River rivalry time. Next up, Texas and Oklahoma. This is of course at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas, as it always is, Texas 14 and a half point road, well, neutral field favorite, 49 in the total. Of course, this is the first time, it's an SEC Red River rivalry game. After all these years in the big 12, the two new entrants into the SEC. For the, usually I have a pretty strong opinion on this game. This year, not so much. Oklahoma defensively can hang in there, potentially. And look, they've been a point spread machine in this series, four and two against the spread. They've won five of the last six meetings against Texas, outright, including last year. Oklahoma was a four point dog, and won outright 3430 against Texas. Texas has had some tough times with Oklahoma. And I don't feel totally comfortable laying more than two touchdowns with them. This Oklahoma offense is a real problem. They beat Auburn because of the defense. Hawkins is still a work in progress. I believe they're gonna probably stick with them at this point at quarterback. I see no reason to go back to Jackson Arnold. They are banged up and beaten up to shit, by the way, at receiver Oklahoma. Deon Brooks, Jalil Farout, Nick Anderson. There's a bunch of questionables. They have cluster injuries at wide receiver going into this game. That's concerning as well. 'Cause if Texas goes up by 14 or 17 or 21, can Oklahoma come back through the back door? I'm not so sure. On the flip side, you look at Texas and yeah, very impressive, including the win at Michigan, which was their signature win this year. But they have faced Colorado State's not been great. UTSA is a bit down Monroe and Mississippi State. This'll be tougher here. I do think Texas is a decent amount better than Oklahoma though. So like I said, it's a pass. I think Texas wins. It's a question of, did they cover the number? I don't trust Oklahoma enough. Even getting 14 and a half with injuries or receiver in that offense. I don't trust it enough. And Texas does have a legit defense and we know what they can do on offense. A question for Texas too, who's starting a quarterback? Are we gonna get a returning Quinn Ewers? He's been upgraded to questionable. He continues to practice. There is a good chance he might be available and back for this game against Oklahoma. And even if it isn't Quinn Ewers and it's Arch Manning again, that guy's no slouch. He can play and he's certainly shown that already. So yeah, not a strong opinion. I think Texas wins. Small lean to Texas. But again, the also C.E.E. Oklahoma has played this team tough and I'm not comfortable laying more than two touchdowns. C.E.M.A.C. what do you think here? If Texas is, you know, for real and the best team, maybe in the country, they will go in there and win by two touchdowns or more. They also should be higher up. They know Oklahoma beat him last year and they know he were better than them this year. Let's just, let's be out for blood, right? - They lose consistently to him though. And even the games, Texas have won, they've been close. I know there was a blowout a couple of years ago. Man, what was that? 42, nothing, 49, nothing. But that's been about it. These games have been close. Yeah, I worry about all year. The line with Oklahoma, they're offensive line. You know, Hawkins has came in and he's got some great speed. That running gets Auburn a couple of weeks ago, but yeah, the receivers, the running backs, they've just been banged up and they went in, they haven't been great. They've been a ton of playmakers for him. Texas is loaded. I don't think it matters who plays a quarterback either one of them, I think it's fine. This is just a lot of points. I want to look into the injury a little bit more with Oklahoma, but hey, that's a cotton bowl. Catchin' 15, 14 and a half. You know where I'm leaning, Oklahoma or not. All right, next up, Ole Miss and LSU. Ole Miss, three-point road favorite, 64, the total in this game. That was an incredible loss that LSU suffered. I remember it at Ole Miss last year. I know that's just such a heartbreaker that they suffered. It was what, 55, 49, Ole Miss. So it is a revenge spot for LSU. And they are a home dog. Yeah, won't see that too often. But here we go again. When they face someone that I thinks on their level or better than them, I don't trust Brian Kelly to get the job done, I don't. I still don't, even though they're getting three here. I could only look at Ole Miss here. Now if it goes above three, I wouldn't be interested. But if it stays right where it is, I see some two and a halfs are still out there as well on Ole Miss. I think they get it done. Ole Miss has trouble with the physical teams. They're good in the trenches, pass rush, get after the quarterback, get after Jackson, Dart, pressure him. That's not LSU, they have a SIB defense. They had it last year. I don't think their defense is that much better this year because I remember so, who have they played? You know, USC that they struggled in that game and they lost, South Carolina ripped them apart and that's a South Carolina offense that couldn't do anything against Ole Miss. Look at that, comment opponent, South Carolina. LSU gives up 33, life and death to beat South Carolina in that game and Ole Miss just beat them 27 to three and completely shut them down. So yeah, I mean, I could only look at Lane, the Lane train here and Ole Miss three or better. Lean over the total as well in this one. Should see point, 64 is pretty high, but Ole Miss should be able to have-- - Teams have gone under. - They have, they have, that is-- I don't love the over, I like the Ole Miss side more, but we did obviously see 65 two years ago, 104 in the match up last year. We're not going to see 104 this time, but I think we can see 65. So I do like over, I like Ole Miss more though. Like I said, LSU, Brian Kelly in these big games, big game Brian Kelly, he is not. You know, I've seen that clearly. C-Mac, what do you think? - Big time Brian Kelly, he is not, but keep, big game Lane. - Kiffin isn't either. - That's true. - Keep mid game, you might like LSU. - Yeah, yeah. - But usually it's like Bama, he lives in Georgia. That's his kind of deal, but Ole Miss, these have kind of been some struggle spots. Not always enough to LSU and kind of the mid tier in the last few years, but you know, night games at Tiger Stadium are-- - That's true, that's a nice game. - No joke. - Yup. - It's a good quarterback matchup. Dart and Nussmeyer. - That'll be a good one, yeah. - If they're going, yeah, could we get the points? - Maybe, I think Ole Miss, LSU's looked a little bit better on who they played defensively, but then, but I think Ole Miss kind of has the better defense from everything I've seen, especially last week. Even against Kentucky and the loss, the defenses look good. That's what I've been most impressed with. And one team's garbage course against the number, Brian Kelly and LSU and Lane Kiffin, especially against teams he beats up. He's been money. It's tough for me. I think this game could be tight at night. I don't know, I can't go with Brian Kelly though. I weirdly, if it's like two and a half, three, I take Ole Miss. I really would. I think they're better in the end. Maybe they don't like, drop 'em, but I think they could seek out of there with a win. Nothing when it comes to Kelly, the defense, I just can't get there to back LSU, you know. I, it'd be Ole Miss, they need this win too, Ole Miss. I think as far as they lost already, they need to win. Yeah. As far as regular season, I agree that, you know, Lane's had some bad regular season moments too, like Brian Kelly, but I just went back in the pool games last year. At least Lane Kiffin had his team ready to go and beat a really good Penn State team in the peach pool. And then there's Brian Kelly against Wisconsin and they got their doors blown off in that game. So, you know, that tells you, like I said, I'll still put a little more faith in Lane Kiffin than I would Brian Kelly right now. But that's for me. LSU dealing with some injuries too on the D line, but I'll look into that later, yeah. You know, Darryl, I think the under might hit here. I'm not, I was looking at the numbers. Ole Miss does look to have a, not just a little bit, but a lot better defense this year. Ole Miss so far, yeah. I'm waiting for them to maybe have like a shootout type game, maybe not the crazy one, like, but yeah, they really haven't had that. I mean, defense has been really good, but a lot of cupcakes early on, but even to see Kentucky the loss in last week, I mean, just to shut South Carolina down. Yeah, it was impressive. All right, Big Ten, Minnesota, UCLA. We've got the Golden Goldfish five and a half point road favorite sporty, the total in this game. I mean, I lean under in this game. Who's offense is moving the ball? You know, UCLA with Ethan Garbage? Oh, sorry, I mean, Ethan Garbage? Garbers, I don't know if he's moving the ball against Minnesota. Minnesota's offense is still very, you know, pedestrian. I know they won against a great win against USC last week, but it was really more so. The defense really clamped down than anything that Max Brosmer and the Minnesota offense did. So I understand why that total is 40 the way it is right there in that game. Look at this UCLA team 13-7. They haven't cracked 20 points this season. Even the game they won against Hawaii, they only scored 16. They haven't scored 20 in a game this year, UCLA. The offense is bad, it's really bad. It's not very good. And in fact, actually it was not Garbers last week. It was Justin Martin getting the not- Yeah, Martin played. Penn State, not much better though. It's okay, but again, there's just not a lot of playmakers. The O line's not very good. I don't think the play calling's that good. It's just not a very good Minnesota UCLA offense right now. But their defense is at times hung in there. I mean, you have to factor in. They've played Penn State, they've played Oregon, LSU. Yeah, they've given up Indiana, but they've gotten better. They've definitely gotten better week by week. Indiana was a disaster. LSU wasn't great. Oregon, they hung in there though. They did get a pick six of Dylan Gabriel. And I thought they hung in there really well against a good Penn State offense. They're definitely making strides on defense here in this game. For the first like one and four obviously against the three and two, I should say. They did cover last, they've covered three in a row actually. UCLA, keep that in mind. 17 point loss at LSU, but they covered 21 point loss against Oregon at home, but they covered. They were 23 and a half point dogs. 29 and a half point dogs at Penn State, they lose by 16th. And then you've got Minnesota coming off a huge win. They're going nuts at the TTF Bank Stadium. The big win against USC saves the job of PJ Fleck temporarily. Now after a win like that, you got to go all the way to the West Coast, which is, I think, this is the first time Minnesota is doing that this year. Yeah, this is their first West Coast game in the new look, big 10, taking on UCLA. I mean, it ruins crazy as it is to say. They've covered three in a row. I worried like hell about their offense. Move in the football, but I don't know if Minnesota's going to fall up and down the field either in this game against UCLA's defense and a potential hangover spot after the win against USC. So UCLA and under, I'm leaning in that direction with this game side in total. Seamak, what do you think? Yeah, UCLA covering, they got the last second touchdown, you know, in the last seconds of that game. The defense, it has hung around a little bit, has been awful. And like Ken Martin here at home, you know, maybe have a better game against, you know, defense that's solid in Minnesota, but not as good as Penn State. You know, that's a bad reason by fire. You're right about that playing against Penn State for your first start. Yeah. Oh, yeah. And it is Martin again. This will be a little more digestible at home against Minnesota. Yeah, he's not playing from 101,000 there at Penn State. And I thought when I saw this line, UCLA's covered these big numbers and Minnesota wins. They ran the football great. Can they do that? Like UCLA, maybe hold them in check, not as good as last year that run defense. Like I was hoping this was going to be over seven, man. Like I was like, if this was over a touchdown or eight, I was going to pound UCLA and it's five and a half. This is super sharp. I think, I can't take them. I lean under 240 here. I wanted to look at a little bit more, just because UCLA has been able to score points. Like if they're in this game, it's going to have to be 17, 13. I don't know, you know, unless Martin all of a sudden can turn his office around that just doesn't have playmakers. Oh, it's tough, but it's just for now or it's just a pass after all that. (laughs) Nothing wrong with that. All right, one of the games of the day might be the game of the day. This is NBC Saturday night, big 10 Saturday night. It'll be Noah Eagle and Todd Blacklage calling it from Eugene, Oregon. One of the biggest games of the year in the big 10, for sure, Ohio State and Oregon. We've got Ohio State, three and a half point, road favorites, 53 being the total here in this game. I'm gonna, I'm sticking to my gun, C-Mac. I love me some Jeremiah Smith. I love me some Henderson at running back that Ohio State offenses and Will Howard's a heck of a competitor, he can run. He's shown some toughness, I get all that, but you're laying more than a field goal on the road. I said Oregon would win the big 10 before the season started. I think I've been less impressed C-Mac with Oregon to this point of the season than Ohio State. Like there's been some games where it's like, what the hell, Oregon? Like Idaho, you struggled like that. You struggled with Boise State the way you did. Lothargic against UCLA for a bit of that game. But at more than a field goal now, as a home dog in that environment, in Eugene in a Saturday night or late Saturday afternoon with this game being the local time 430 out there, I'm taking Oregon here at more than a field goal. I think it's a nip and tuck game. Two really good football teams, two good offenses, two good quarterbacks, Will Howard on the Ohio State side. Dylan Gabriel on the Oregon side. And I will say this about Oregon. Okay, if they don't turn it over a few times against Michigan State last week, that's a destruction. And they took it easy on Michigan State in the second half of that game. So even though they didn't cover, don't penalize Oregon for that. They were dominant over Michigan State in that game. And if not for turnovers, and then they took their foot off the gas pedal, I think late in that game with this game on deck, which is part of why I like Michigan State, getting all those points last week against Oregon. And yes, it was in these ugly cover, but they did get inside the number. Great game, absolutely phenomenal game. And maybe Ohio State goes in there and wins and maybe wins by six or seven and covers the number. But I think there's value in this number with Oregon. C-Mac, what do you think? - Yeah, and I mean, this is what Oregon has circles here. Oh, here, really, and I've been waiting for. And if Oregon doesn't, these things kick themselves. You have to shoot themselves in the foot, penalties, a turnovers. If they are good here, they're in it. So I definitely, yeah, want the three and a half, four points. Just off the, I just kinda, I think Ohio State might be better a little bit, but this is finally a game on the road where they gotta travel to. And this is where I wanted to see Will Howard, 'cause he's look really good and he is a competitor, but I saw him make plenty of mistakes at K-State over the years, especially in big games. So we'll see, two teams of good, you know what's sharp, I think it's just total. I think it's right, I didn't wanna mess with it. And I could see it going under, but it's the offices here. - And I say that because Ohio State is not playing fast or as fast on offense as they used to. - And the defense has been great. I mean, so far, who did it play? - Yeah, they slow it down too. - Yeah, and I mean, Oregon, other, and we saw the one team though, have success really Boise that can move the ball. The other teams have horrible offenses. Michigan State, UCLA, they're just awful. - They don't have good offenses. So Oregon does, yeah, I just, I don't wanna mess with it. They both have been slow, you know, both have had that big leads, but then also they've sat on them. So the games have gone under some of these games. I just don't know what we get 'cause I think it could have turned into some maybe some points and get over, but Ohio State might be better out there. And yeah, to go in there and win by, you know, five or more, they see a touchdown. - Which is not easy to do, obviously. There's no, there's absolutely phenomenal watch, obviously on Saturday, looking forward to it. And yeah, to me, the eye test says, like you said, which is why I think they're favored by three and a half on the road here. - Yeah, I mean, it looked like they've been better. They've looked like they've been a little bit better, just overall, you know, how sharp they've been. - They've been crisper, yeah, they've, yeah, out of the two. - No doubt, but, you know, quantify crisper or sharper when Akron, Western Michigan, Marshall, Michigan State, and Iowa are your opponents. That's another thing too. I mean, this is definitely a step up for Ohio State here in this game. And, you know, Oregon schedule's not been the toughest either, but they had the Boise game in there. And Boise is one of the best teams, certainly one of the best group of five teams in the country, but great game, like I said though, I said Oregon would win that conference before it started. So that's why I feel at plus three and a half, I need to be on them here. But that's a great game, there's no doubt. All right, Washington and Iowa, we've got the Hawkeyes minus two and a half point home favorites. The total 41 in this game, I actually lean Iowa, I can't believe I'm saying that, but the reason for that is I don't trust Washington on the road, fully. Washington got the big win against Michigan last week. It was probably the best game they've played all year. Will Rogers and the offense was solid. I thought their defense was just outstanding. They really, really bottled up the Michigan ground game and made life difficult for them. It was a great defensive performance from Washington. But I also remember when they went to Rutgers, before that, they lost 21-18, they were sloppy as fuck, they turned the ball over, the offense didn't finish drives, the kicker missed a bunch of field goals, you're right Phil, that's a big issue, gross, the kicker, it's been gross watching him kick. I know, yeah, it's gross, yeah. Pits his last name, it's not been good for him, kicking field goals, missed a bunch lately. And that's concerning too, especially when you gotta go on the road and win this game. But Iowa, they've taken their lumps, they got beat down and that was a rubbing in the second half. They kept it close for one half and then Ohio State just took over last week, 35-7. They lost to Iowa State, they faced pretty weak teams other than that. Cade McNamara is still a work in progress. I mean, 14 for 20 with one interception, just, I can't say I'm shocked. I mean, that's what he is, he's a fringe quarterback. And when Caleb Johnson gets shut down, it becomes difficult for Iowa to win games and he was shut down by Ohio State. And when you look at Washington's defense, they're only giving up 3.9 yards per carry, 130.5 on the ground per game. So it does feel like Iowa might have tough sledding here, move in the football, 'cause Washington does have a solid run defense, but I don't fully trust Washington overall, including even their offense and Rogers on the road after seeing what they did at Rutgers lose in that game. So I actually kinda lean Iowa, less than a field goal at Canoch here in a bounce back spot. I actually think the better bet might be under 41. I think this could be. I know Iowa had gone over at every game, but it finally stayed under last week against Ohio State. And I don't know if these two offenses are going up and down the field here, especially with Washington's strength on DB and against the run, C-Mac, I think. - That's where I've been kinda impressed with Washington is the defense, you know? And it's just one finally that stays under, you know? That one did last week, but Iowa, I mean, for the most part of score. So even in the Michigan game, that game got over similar total. You know, I stayed off at the Beto and it just got over. But they were, they actually, Rogers was good. They ran the ball, not solid, good enough. Latu, they got Jackson, that Boston kid is a good receiver for Washington. He had another good game. So look out for him to maybe make some plays. The traveling stuff is tough. Yeah, Washington's like, they went to New Jersey, outplayed Rutgers, but he shot himself in the foot like talked about, missed field goals, downs. Just, I mean, they outgained him, but couldn't get it done in the end. And I saw it similar against Washington State where that happened. And if that happens here, they will lose with those game and I will win. So, God, this one's tough for me. I think it's this kind of maybe a good spot to fade Washington and lean Iowa at just the short number. But I think the game's tight. So, I lean under, nothing here for me early. I'd like to take Iowa, I don't know if I'd get here. - It's an interesting game. We'll see how it goes. We stay in the Big Ten, Penn State USC. Penn State, five and a half point road favorites. 48, the total in this game. This Penn State's first long trek out West this season as part of the New York Big Ten. Look, they were workmen like against UCLA, but it wasn't a fluid performance. Wasn't overly crisp and sharp from Drew Aller and the offense, you know, 27-11 against UC. - All year it hasn't. - Yeah, I don't think, Savannah. - Illinois, they start and stop with that offense. All of a sudden, they've kind of looking like last year's offense. We're still living off that West Virginia game. It's the first game of the year where they shredded West Virginia. They all look as a new offense, explosive down the field and no, no, not the last couple weeks anyway. Gosh, I can't believe I'm saying it. I lean USC here, back home, I'll be at a tough loss, but back home, long way away from home now for Penn State. Problem is there's a big difference defensively with these two. And I know under Lynn, Danton, Lynn, they've been a little bit better, but with the game on the line, they couldn't stop Michigan, they couldn't stop Minnesota. And that's the biggest fear. This game's close and they compete, which I think USC can. Can they get a stop when they need it against Drew Aller? And the Nittany Lions offense, I'm not so sure 'cause they've shown-- - Exactly. - So I lean USC, but am I running to bed at? No, C, Mac, what do you think? - That's exactly how I feel a little bit. I haven't been impressed if he took UCLA. They covered, or Illinois did. I had the under, that was great. The week before they blew out, got it on their own. We talked about that against Kent State, 56-nothing got over the total. They're their team total. Yeah, SC, the stop just hadn't been there. More, I know the second half at home, it was solid against Wisconsin, but man, that was tough in that one, but they did cover. I don't, I just, Moss, I think he's all right. You know, SC has some big playmakers. I wanna look to him, and I'm interested here. I'm interested in SC. You know, I'm big on Penn State. I do think Penn State has a better defense. Like, and for them to go in there and win here, by touchdown, I think it's possible. I gotta look at SC a little bit more. I don't think the defense is, it's been, it's somewhat improved, but I don't know if it's there. There's enough for me to bet. This is just, yeah, the big road game on the West Coast. And can SC come back? You know, after a couple losses, we already saw them what they look like against Michigan and Minnesota. So are they on their level? This is a team in Penn State who regularly had beat those teams. So I think the line's sharp. Yeah, I'm off here as well, early. I mean, under, are we gonna get points? I don't know. - That's a good question. You know, is it, is the offense is gonna wake up here? - Miller Moss hasn't been phenomenal either. Let's not forget that. - He's been okay. Yeah, he's just been all right. Hey, yes. - That's exactly it. He's been okay, but he hasn't been absolutely tremendous by any stretch of the imagination. So yeah, I do get concerned a little bit as far as the offense. I mean, Miller Moss look great in the win against LSU and it kind of feels like since that game C-Mac, he's been okay. He's been all right, but he's not been, wow. Let's just, wow. - I mean, last week he had a couple picks. - Yeah, yeah. - Yeah, so that's what would concern me a little bit here about taking USC is that while we talk about the defense and last year it being bad two years ago at being bad and this year in the key moments of games, they haven't gotten stops. The bottom line is this is a LSU or a USC offense that, you know, I thought Miller Moss would really be great this year 'cause he was awesome in the bowl game and it's been kind of hit or miss for USC's offense at times this year so far. So we'll see how they play here. All right, we have gotten to the final game now of this edition of hitting the books and we're going out West for Boise State and Hawaii, Boise State making the trip to the island for this one against the Warriors, Boise State 21 point road favorites, total sitting at 61 and a half across the board. Obviously it's the Ashton Gente show, let's be real. That's what it's become. It's the traveling Ashton Gente show here for this game between Boise State and Hawaii and what a show it's been. This guy's got so much Barry Sanders in him, hybrid Barry Sanders and Derek Henry, it's unbelievable. Like he is physical, he can't bring him down, he breaks tackles, he's got underrated speed in the open field. This team running the football has been a sight to behold. The question is, and that's the first thing you got it, that's the first place you have to go to and look at when you're handicapping Boise State games these days. Can the opponent stop the run? And when you look at Hawaii, the run defense actually hasn't been that bad. 3.8 rushing yards per carry, 3.8 yards per carry, and 120 rushing yards per game, but they have not seen anything close to an Ashton Gente so far. And when you look at these, the first few opponents, UCLA doesn't have much of a run game. Sam Houston does, Sam Houston does have a pretty good run game. And in that game, Sam Houston ran for 257 against Hawaii. So I'd be concerned about Hawaii matching up with Ashton Gente because so far it looks to me like nobody's been able to match up with him so far. So that's definitely something to watch for, moving forward with this team. I think on the flip side, when you look at Hawaii's offense, which I expected, I expected this team to be pretty good on offense with Braden Shager. And we continue to see it in little spurts here and there, but not for a full game. I thought they were a lot better against San Diego State, but then all of a sudden defense, not getting the stop mattered. They lose 27-24. It was San Diego State team that's still adjusting to a new offense and a new system and a new scheme. So I'd be concerned here a little bit. And again, while the rush numbers are great overall for the season, skewed because they face teams that aren't great running the football or don't run the football consistently, UCLA and Northern Iowa. You look at the San Diego State game, but in San Diego State, they did a good job there, but San Diego State's not the run team they work as with Sean Lewis, they're throwing the ball a lot more. They're more of a pass heavy offense. Now with that up tempo, new look, San Diego State offense. The one game against a great, great run team, running the football, great ground attack with Sam Houston and Hawaii got shredded in that game against the run. So that's why I'm concerned about Hawaii matching up here against Ashton Gente. So I lean over, Boise might be able to get their points because I worry about the Hawaii run defense. Hawaii, I think, can score a little bit. Boise's defense is still, they're not a shutdown defense. They'll give up points. We've seen it every single week, 30 to Utah State, 24 to Washington State, 37 to Oregon, 45. - You really? - Other. You're an over team, dead nuts over team, five and over the over this year, Boise. Now I know Hawaii's four and one to the under, but I think that might change here. Seamak, what do you think? - There's two, it's, yeah. The over where Boise's been good and Hawaii has it. And it's gonna be 39, 40, Boise's team total. I mean, they've got 62, 45, 56, 34 against Oregon. So right there in 50 cents, 56 against Georgia or Southern. You're telling me they don't get 40 and they've kicked the shit out of Hawaii consistently. The matter with offenses that haven't been as good, Boise, 40, 39, 52, 55, 40, 942, give me their team total. Like I'll buy, I mean, if they score 38 here and I lose this, I could take it, but I think they get their team total, which is gonna be right there, 39, 40. And I think the full game to get there too, Hawaii gets a few scores, two or three, so I agree with it. - All right, good stuff. - Boise, you know. - All right, great show. As always, shut out to everyone in the chat, tuning in, just quickly, fill the kill. Oldie, Nasty Nate, Goldju, Myron Kidd, Darryl Turner, Ross Pitts, everyone in the chat that joined us. - Oh yeah. - Ran earlier on, Slippery Rock, like I said, Myron Kidd, Tom Leach, everyone, Bama Boy, Kongs, Clips, Al Servic, everyone, again, Goryon, Bama Boy, Talk Sports with J.T., appreciate all of you. Hit the like button on the way out. Good timing, 'cause we got some baseball just about to start a little playoff baseball with Detroit and Cleveland about to get going. For what it's worth, I'm on Tiger's first five, full game split. Let's be real, they gotta have this, they've got their guy on the mound, Tarek Scubel, gotta have this game if you're Detroit, so yeah, I like Tiger's first five, full game split. Lean Kansas City a little bit with Reagan's in the second game, he pitched really well in that first game in the playoffs for him in the last series against, who do they play again? Kansas City. - I am on him, I gotta take him. - I mean, let's see what road on we get. We got the dominant, I mean, I think, you know, Royals can get some off him, they had left these all right, so yeah. - They do, yeah. I lean more so royals to lean slightly full game over, but I like the royals side more than that, and I think it's a dead nuts under the first game, Detroit, Cleveland, but six, it got down to six, that total. - Six, yeah. - It's tough to get under when it's six, like. - Caesar's had a five and a half here. - Yeah, for a little start, for a minute, five and a half. - Yeah, whew, no doubt. Great stuff, C-Mac, final thoughts before we say goodbye. - Yeah, another great show. I love doing this, breaking it down. We will have the videos out here in the next day or two. Hopefully later tonight I'll have them out. But I appreciate everyone in the chat. Just hit the like button, that's all we ask for. Everything that we do, and tell everyone to subscribe. Tell your brothers, sisters, brothers, uncle. You wanna tell them, subscribe to Hating the Books. We appreciate all the love we've been getting. Same old show, just on our channel, and we're trying to build it back and get rolling. So, appreciate all the support out there. Thank you, that is it. - That's it indeed, great stuff everyone. Thanks for tuning in, hit the like button. If you're watching on YouTube, on the way out for Connor Mac. I'm Ian Cameron. This has been another edition of the college football, hitting the books show, enjoy week seven in college football and good luck. And we will be back with you next Monday, same time. 1 p.m. Eastern, 10 a.m. Pacific for another edition of the college football, hitting the books. And until then, class dismissed. [ Silence ]