The Duran Podcast
Cauldrons In Donbass. Zelensky Buying Time, Hopes US Enters Conflict
All right, Alexandra, let's do an update on what is happening in Ukraine Lots of cauldrons in in Donbasa a lot of cauldrons are forming in Donbas and It does look like Zelensky is more focused on Corsk and Harkov and the north of Of the the front lines. We are also getting some some reports saying that the Ukraine military is Starting to prepare fortifications in the Deepa del Pentrosk in that region anticipating Russian advance towards that major city. Anyway, what are your thoughts on what is happening on the front lines? This is exactly correct I mean, I think what we are now seeing and we're seeing it across the whole of South central Donbas and indeed Zaporogia and her son as well is that Ukrainian resistance is evering away fast and I read a report I think it was a Ukrainian report actually which are the one of the fundamental problems that the Ukrainians now have is That they're military their forces in Central and southern Donbas are now so overstretched that they cannot hold the ground between the towns and the cities they're not in a position to build fortifications in These places and that gives the Russians Opportunities to maneuver in the you know in the open country and that means that the Russians are able to Cut off Ukrainian units that are obliged to retreat into towns and cities in order to defend themselves because they're not strong enough to Defend themselves in open country and that is leading exactly to the outcome that you said a whole cluster of different Cauldrons or encirclements starting to appear in all sorts of places so we have a major encirclement starting to develop in Southern Donbas in an important town called Khurakhov. We're still at a fairly early stage with this, but it's starting to appear This is the area where the Russians recently captured the Ladar They are advancing closer and closer to Khurakhov. They're perhaps two kilometers away in some places There's apparently a significant number of Ukrainian troops in Khurakhov. Oh Khurakhov is on a water reservoir So the troops the Ukrainian troops can't retreat obviously across the water they're only a limited number of roads and the Russians a Russian official has told the Russian news agency pass that the Russians have fire control as they say over over all the main roads and We can see that the Russians are moving rapidly towards trying to close off the raid roads Which would lead to as I said in supplement of the Ukrainian troops in this area then a little further to the north There is another cauldron or encirclement Which is developing and this is developing very fast. We're probably days away from where from where this is happening This is around a town called Gerenik or Gornyak as the Russians call it there's a small cluster of villages around it supposedly several thousand Ukrainian troops are located there the Russians are on all sides of this cluster of villages and the small town They've just apparently today completed the capture of another village called Sukhurinje which effectively means that these troops these Ukrainian troops in this town and in these villages are Effectively already encircled operationally encircled. There are still roads. They could retreat through But those roads are under Russian fire control and the Russians are located very very close to them and then further north There's Cilidovall town of about 24,000 people before the wall The Russians are to the north of it. They're to the south of it. They're to the east of it they apparently again are coming very close to Controlling all the main roads and railway lines into Cilidovall. There's apparently a significant force of Ukrainian troops inside Cilidovall looks like they're going to be surrounded fairly soon as well and About a week ago a Russian official also told tasks that if we're talking about the big Place in this area, which is Bakhrosk. The Russians again have as he put it fire control over the main supply roads into Bakhrosk They've already cut the railway lines. They're bombing and shelling the main roads It's very difficult for supplies to reach Bakhrosk through these roads We're still some weeks away from a position where we can talk about a encirclement of the Ukrainian troops in Bakhrosk But it is there just below the time horizon and that since you know southern central Donbas If we go further north and further eastwards the Russians have now taken positions Close round a 45 town called Civersk in the north They've captured various villages around Civersk. Civersk is already itself something of an enclave it's deep inside You know Russian controlled territory It looks to me is that whatever Ukrainian troops are there are also at serious risk of encirclement and There are various cauldrons and minor cauldrons in the big town of Torresk that the Russians have been gradually capturing over the last few months and When Torresk itself falls and when the neighboring town of Chassafya also falls and their reports at the Russians are advancing in those places as well Well, you can see if you look at a map that again the position of Ukrainian troops in this part of Donbas south of Klamatorsk looks precarious to put it mildly so all of these cauldrons are starting to appear and I get the sense that the Ukrainian leadership the Ukrainian high command quietly Understands that all of these places are going to be lost and what they're doing is that they're buying themselves time By continuing to resist in these places even if that means that their troops in Donbas are being sacrificed in huge numbers and you're quite right There are reports that they're now busy trying to create fortifications in neopra or the city of neopra Which is on the Neepa river in other words, they're thinking of a retreat to the Neepa in this area Well whilst at the same time trying to hold out in the north in Harkov and sumi region and Incuse region which I get the sense is Zelensky's overriding priority Because he knows that if the Russians capture these places Sumi Harkov they retake us then they're on the gates of Kiev and Then that of course puts the entire Ukrainian state in jeopardy And of course so long as he remains in Kiev it puts himself in jeopardy as well So I think this is his priority. I think that they've decided That would be out of course saying so, but I think they've decided that they'll hold on as long as they can in Donbas At whatever the cost, but that their major focus now is defending in the north Yeah, it's the north that That's Zelensky has also based his entire piece formula and piece summit on the whole narrative for more money More weapons and a victory plan is based on on the north on the curse incursion So I mean he's got to hold on to that if he wants to continue to To put out this this whole victory plan narrative a plan which He's been talking about now for a couple of months and no one has actually Seen a victory plan which leads me to believe that that there really is no no victory plan It really is as as a collective West official said it really is just a wish list of stuff that he wants There is no real plan. No, no. Oh, he's ultimate plan is to bring the United States into the war We've discussed this many times and interestingly enough mainstream media are basically starting to save us money I mean that they're gradually coming around to acknowledging that this is the only way that Zelensky can can shift the situation Now, I think you're quite right. I think he's focused now. Hold on in the central and southern regions by fortifying positions along the deeper and focus in focus on the north Transfer your best troops and what supplies you have there talk about a victory plan in connection with your positions in the north Try to hold positions in course, which is by the way, very dangerous the Ukrainian troops in course Region also look like they might be in a cauldron before long, but that's that's his plan I think it is a very very bad plan indeed. I mean again. This is not my areas of expertise But just to say I mean, you know writing off Dongas writing off all of Eastern Ukraine southern south of Khar kind of writing off Tens of thousands of men of your army in these places What it's going to do is he's going to leave Ukraine devastated and broken and I didn't think That a Ukraine weakened in that way Ultimately, we'll be able to defend its positions along the naper or in the north But to the extent that Zelensky actually has a plan that appears to be the one that he has Yeah, I wonder what happens after the election I mean, we're we're a month away from from the US elections less than a month away from the elections in the United States Zelensky was supposed to The rumors in in Kiev were stating that Alensky was going to fire but on off and who better off the defense minister The key the key news there is that he was going to fire but on off who met off who cares about that guy? He was a he was a fill-in defense minister after resin the cough was who was fired for? Corruption or whatever res the cough was fired for but the key was that but on off the intel guy one one of the main guys in Project Ukraine Was going to be sacked by by Zelensky that the news is that that that has been delayed until after the US election and It just leads me to believe that That Zelensky is waiting to see What's going to happen after the US elections hold on to to don't boss? Let me continue to to hype up the curse concursion for another month And let's see what happens after the elections from the US side the Sullivan's and the blinkings and all of these guys They'll be able to to say okay. We we did our job. We got Ukraine past the election Mark the election finish line. Oh, you know now. It's up to to the new administration And Zelensky's waiting to see is it going to be Harris or is it going to be Trump? Harris there won't be much change if anything it may even be worse for Zelensky cuz she's she's obviously not interested in Ukraine But she'll do whatever she's she's told to do Trump is is the the question mark Trump doesn't appear to like Zelensky much at least that's the vibe that I got from their last meeting But Trump has said that he will put it end to to the conflict in Ukraine. I wonder if Zelensky is thinking in a weird twisted way if he's thinking that That may be a Trump presidency Would would put pressure on on Putin and maybe he'll have a better chance of bringing the US into Ukraine with Trump I'm I don't think that's that's what's gonna happen I think Trump is going to do the exact opposite But I wonder if Zelensky is thinking you know if if Trump can if I can pit Trump off against Putin Then maybe that's my that's my way of threading the needle and getting out of this this mess. I don't know your thoughts I'm just I'm just making some Well, the great some things that I'm back that I was thinking about but yeah Yeah, the great problem with speculating about what Zelensky might do is that I think we're talking about a person Who can see increasingly the writing on the wall? He understands that Ukraine cannot win the wall that it is Being defeated. I think the Ukrainians understood that I think Zelensky himself Understood this back in July by the way as early in a couple of weeks ago But I think that they understand that the war is lost at the same time. They cannot bring themselves to negotiate with the Russians and make concessions or or return to Istanbul to Istanbul plus or to Speak with the Russians about the terms that Putin proposed back in June, which basically is Istanbul plus a Withdrawed by the Ukrainians completely from the four regions. So he's not able to do that He's not able to do that emotionally because he's invested so much in fighting the Russians and At the same time, he can't do it politically because he understands that if he does it politically He will bring the radical nationalists down upon him He also understands that he would politically be completely discredited if he were to do something like that So a person who finds himself in that kind of position who has to go on Even despite the fact that he has no realistic prospect of turning things around Tends to clutch at straws So he comes up with a victory plan trying to get missiles to be launched against the Russians He's going to represent his victory plan to a ramstein meeting on 12th of October by the way That's being lined up in a couple of days. He's going to turn up there The Americans weren't impressed by the victory plan the Pentagon appears to be hostile to it But he's going to try and revive that all over again So he's going to cling on to his victory plan try to persuade people to agree to his victory plan He's again thinking about a peace conference He accepts that this time the Russians must be there, but it will only be to discuss his Peace plan which is for the Russians to pull out completely from Ukraine He's still hoping somehow to persuade countries in the global South to come He reached out to Modi in India. He's tried the Saudis as well. Apparently That didn't work out very well Modi got stung by the old experience That's my own sense So he's trying to do that too and what you said about him Hoping maybe that with Trump things might change and turn out better for him I can completely believe this because as a city person who finds himself in the kind of situation That Zelensky is in is increasingly going to clutch at straws and is going to lose contact with reality And I think that's exactly what's happening. So yes, I think he might think to himself Well, you know Trump comes in. He doesn't like me very much He wants to end the war and maybe I can persuade him that if he goes along with me and threatens the Russians and All sorts of different ways Then I can achieve through Trump what I've failed to achieve up to now Which is to draw the Americans in I think like you but he's completely wrong But I could completely believe that that is what he's got that that's what he's thinking and that is what he's going to do Yen Stoltenberg the native secretary general and by the way the Israeli Prime Minister of Delhi Bennett Have now revealed a rather embarrassing fact about Zelensky, which I think he won't Be happy about which has just been revealed Which is that in the first days after the start of the Russian Special military operation when the Russian army was at the gates of Kiev in fact a couple of hundred meters from his office Zelensky was absolutely terrified retreated into a bunker and NATO lost contact with him for several days and I mean he was clearly I mean unsurprisingly a very frightened man at that time and he must remember all of that very vividly himself and he must be very afraid of reliving that whole experience So you can see how people who have that? emotion behind them that insecurity about them Well, you know, they clutch at straws they come up with far-fetched plans They say to themselves it'll all be all right in the end because I'll find some way through They don't look at a situation objectively and realistically and I don't think Zelensky Yeah, but you know that that whole Incident the first month of the Special military operation We now know even from statements from Natali Bennett the former Prime Minister of Israel that That Russia had no intention to harm. So let's see what they want to do is they wanted to get Effectively Istanbul they want to get a deal In place and and we got it. They got it. Everyone got it. Yeah, everything was initialed and it was just waiting for for the signatures of of Zelensky and and then Boris came into town and and I wonder what so I mean You know Zelensky was frightened and scared he got assurances from not Dali Bennett who spoke to Putin that nothing was going to happen to him and And rightly so he he sent a delegation to Istanbul and they came up with with an agreement Which would have effectively ended the the conflict? So did did Boris when he flew to Kiev? Did he basically tells Zelensky you're safer with us than with this deal? I mean was that the the pitch did he play on Zelensky's fear and and insecurities and tell him look You're not protected by by by this this agreement We're gonna protect you. We're gonna take care of you Nothing's gonna happen to you and and you're also going to be the person that brought down the Russian Federation you're gonna be the guy that that did what no one else could do that Napoleon couldn't do that that no one could do Which is to to dismantle Russia. I mean Was that what was what was given to him and is he now and now is he feeling like maybe he made the wrong choice Yeah, I'm sure he is. I'm sure he is feeling that he made the wrong choice But I think in essence probably not using exactly those words But in essence that is exactly what Boris Johnson not just Boris by the way But a lot of other people from the West were telling Zelensky at that time They say look you've got absolutely nothing to fear if you stick with us Because we will ensure that you win if you do this deal with the Russians that you want to do We're not going to give you security guarantees. We're not going to give you credit security guarantees you're going to be left alone and Isolated you're going to have all those radical people that you have difficult relations with already And it will really threaten you personally you're going to have to deal with them And we're not going to lift a finger to help you because you know, we're not going to come round and back Istanbul Whereas if you stick with us if you continue the war We will give you every weapon that you would need we will give you all the support you need We've already imposed massive sanctions on the Russians. You can be confident You can be sure then a couple of weeks a couple of months whole You know empire in the east which you're up against will come crashing down And you will be you know, the new Churchill the new hero who brought it about and I think that appealed to zalensky's sense of vanity and his sense of melodrama if you like And it also it also assuaged his very real insecurities Now, of course he finds himself trapped in a much more difficult position. He's turning around and he's behaving in As I said, this way of trying to clutch at straws and he's also going after various people in Kiev Who are potentially or he probably thinks of potentially risks to him And one of course one of them of course is Badanov now the Badanov resignation or dismissal is a very strange affair because Badanov has been built up as this heroic figure Both in the western media there've been incredibly complementary articles and interviews with Badanov and of course in Ukraine itself and after now Badanov has been loyal to zalensky but Suddenly we're getting all of these reports That badanov is out of favor. It is not clear why I Personally think that he's been Criticized he's been Made the scapegoat if you like well, that's his scapegoat He probably was partly responsible for the cusque debacle I suspect that he did a lot of the planning and the thinking about the cusque debacle the advance into course The capture of the power station all of those things Underestimated how strong the Russians were there so he's somebody to blame Ultimately, I think though what zalensky is afraid of is that the Badanov in place Is badanov in charge of a very powerful Special forces apparatus which badanov has built up and which has close connections with the american and british intelligence agencies And that badanov if things start to go wrong Could be a could be a potential challenger or threat to zalensky and that's probably why at this moment in time there's word out That zalensky and his chief of staff yadma want to sack him They can't sack him at the moment because he's still got american protection or so it seems So they're going to wait until the election as you write me say see what happens if Well once it becomes clear who's going to take over And the issue of the election is out of the way Then possibly they will move forward with this thing I would have thought that sacking the badanov is going to be a complicated and very difficult thing to do but anyway, you know whatever the explanations behind All of these rumors about the sacking of buddana farm whatever the explanations are um, they do not suggest as stable Or politically secure situation in kiev they suggest a government a president zalensky Who sense that they're in trouble and at risk of losing control Yeah, all right, we will end the video there the deran.locos.com We are on rumble odyssey bitchewed telegram and X and go to the deran shop pick up some merch Like what we are wearing in this video update the link is in the description box down below. 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