[MUSIC PLAYING] From the Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs at Brown University, this is Trending Globally. I'm Dan Richards. While no one knows how this November's election in the US is going to go, there's one thing most experts agree on. It's likely going to be close, very close. [MUSIC PLAYING] Poll after poll after poll suggests that, especially in a few key states, support for the two candidates is evenly split in a way we haven't seen in decades. So with just about four weeks to go before election day, we're going to hear from two experts about why this election appears so close and about how to think about this race as it enters its home stretch. What are the issues? And who are the voters that will define this race in the end? Why does it seem like neither Biden's winning coalition in 2020, nor Trump's coalition in 2016 seem likely to reform? And what does it all mean for our country's politics beyond November 5? [MUSIC PLAYING] Wendy Schiller is a political scientist and director of the Taubman Center for American Politics and Policy at the Watson Institute. She's also the Institute's interim director. Catherine Tate is a professor of political science at Brown University and an expert on public opinion and black politics in the United States. Here is our conversation. [MUSIC PLAYING] Wendy Schiller, Catherine Tate, thank you so much for coming on to trending globally. Our pleasure to be here. Thank you. I want to start with just the nature of this race right now. In 2020, President Biden won the popular vote by some 7 million votes. He won the electoral college by over 30 votes. And right now, most polls have this race as likely to be a lot closer than that. And I guess before we get into some of the specifics, kind of big picture, what are the main factors that you think are making it so much closer? And I think voters still don't feel like they know Harris very well, while Trump is very familiar. And although it's a Harris versus Trump election, this election is much like 2020. I'm not sure there'll be a strong turnout in 2024 as in previous elections, because they're not really given a real choice. It's Harris is new, but still, she's with the Biden administration. And I think that voters are not going to necessarily turn out at high numbers because of that. And because the polls may be inaccurate because of the turnout problem, Trump is doing well among working class whites, but they tend not to vote. And so I think college-educated voters are more likely the surge at the polls for this election. Professor Tate brings up a terrific point about the switch in the fundamentals of each party. Because 20 years ago, we would have said that working class voters, even working class white voters, were core to the Democratic Party. But now the Democratic Party seems to have the majority of college-educated white voters and college-educated black voters. And so that is a very different ball game. There are fewer of those. Only 40% of America has any college at all. However, they are still more likely to vote, even with the Trump enthusiasm from 2016. So that's the big question mark. Is in 2016, Donald Trump brought a lot of people without a college education to the polls. They got out the door. In 2020, it was quite a mixed result. And he himself discouraged people from voting by mail in a pandemic. And I think that affected some of the turnout, even though he did very well, historically well, for the Republicans in turnout. That still lingers a little bit. And I think the Democrats are better at saying vote whatever way you can. So in certain areas, particularly suburbs, you probably will expect college-educated voters to turn out in bigger numbers. And that is something I think that we're not quite seeing as starkly in the polls as we might. - Vice President Harris, obviously, part of the Biden administration, but also clearly did change the race when she entered into the race. And I was thinking, you know, maybe we could start first with some aspects of Vice President Harris' identity that are just profoundly different than what we had been expecting from the Democratic candidate. You know, she's of course the first woman of color to lead a major party ticket. - And I'm wondering, are either of you surprised with how race and gender have or have not affected the race so far? - I'm not surprised Trump has made race and gender issues. He calls Vice President Harris Dumb, that's a loaded term for women. He's talked about her racial identity, saying that she only recently called herself black. Harris has refused to answer questions about her identity. It just brushes them off. And in fact, the historic nature of the race, she has not made much mention of that either, the fact that she could be the first woman elected, and certainly the first black female, first black Indian female, South Asian female president. So I think she's trying to keep race from becoming a major issue in the election, and you know, and avoid a trap that Trump has laid out. I think that it's, you know, he's, he's, like I said, his efforts to inject race in the campaign have been bold, you know, the lie about Haitians eating family pets. He recently just said that he would change back Fort Liberty's name back to Fort Bragg, a Confederate name, so that he's, I think, aggressively injecting race into the campaign. - And why do you get the sense that Vice President Harris is maybe less interested in making race a central issue? Does she see it as a risk in some ways? - Yes, I think that, you know, instead of focusing on her qualifications, they would just focus on her race and gender, and vote accordingly. I think that people are looking for more policy direction in the selection, and we had a historic election in 2008 when Barack Obama was elected the first black president, and I think it's just too dangerous of, arena for her to enter if she talks about her race and gender. - She's been selective about it. You know, if you look at the swing state map, she's gone in Michigan and really emphasized that she's a black woman and really tried to motivate black female voters, particularly in cities like Detroit. And then when she goes to Arizona, she talks about the border, and then when she goes to North Carolina, she, I don't know if we'd say, de-emphasizes her identity as a black woman, but she's not using it in the same way. And so everywhere she goes, she has to sort of channel a different aspect of her candidacy to appeal to that slice of voters that she thinks she can win. - Catherine, this makes me think of something I wanted to ask you about as well, you've spoken about how pragmatism and fear have affected political decisions of black Americans when it comes to voting. What role do you think those factors are playing in this election? - I think that when Biden was going to drop out, you had young black Americans mostly saying they wanted him to drop out. I think older blacks were, you know, going to stick by Biden no matter what. They really fear a second term for Donald Trump. So when Biden dropped out in here and stepped up, I think blacks were a little hesitant at first to say hallelujah. You know, they just are concerned that this country, you know, has a race gender problem that, you know, it was one thing to elect a black male president, but it's another thing to elect a black female president. You know, there's just this concern that the election is so close. I'm not sure that they would say Biden should have stayed in, but people are concerned that, you know, because of race and gender, Harris might not win. - You brought up some divisions along age as well in the electorate. How do you both think Kamala Harris' entry into the race has been received by younger voters? Has it brought more younger voters into the Democratic side or has it just energized the existing ones? How do you see that? - Harris brought back the enthusiasm and energized the base. You know, there's the record, you know, donations given to her campaign, but young black Americans are the ones who say that it's about the economy and that they are, you know, concerned about inflation and high interest rates. And despite Trump's abrasive personality, still feel that Trump will do better on the economic front than Harris will. And so I think that this is a sort of reckoning for the Democratic Party. You know, they have benefited from the line, share the black vote for so long. I think young black voters need a new reason to, you know, embrace the party. And I'm not sure any Democrat at the top of the ticket could give young blacks what they want to hear at this point, but I think that it's something that has to be addressed in the future as well. - Is it almost like in a generational way how the stereotype is younger? People are a little more open to taking risks and you were just saying how a lot of older black voters have a real strong sense of pragmatism. And is there just this kind of like inherent generational thing that younger voters might be a little more willing to say, let's try something totally different? - I think that, you know, it's not just Trump's personality, I think that they just want an alternative to Democratic Party so that this is something that, you know, in 2028 they'll have to concern themselves with in terms of how to ensure that they don't lose this young generation of black voters to the Republican Party. But I also think that, you know, we see this with Latino voters as well, that young Latinos are also more likely to say they're gonna support Trump. And I think that some of this has to do with the fact that in both groups I think there is less group consciousness among them that they are more pocketbook voters than sort of concerned about their communities looking at it more narrowly than the older generation that, you know, was somehow affected directly by the civil rights movement. So I think that the Democratic Party will have to work hard on these two minorities to secure their votes. 48% of people under the age of 30, 34 years old vote and 72% of people over the age of 65 vote. So for me, I'm not sure I'm gonna read into a lot for this election among black or Latino men or women who are voting under the age of 30. I just think that's sort of the least big turnout. I think about the fact that they haven't really lived through an era where their rights were curtailed and they don't fear Trump the way that people who are older fear Trump. I think also they don't see where a Democratic policies and even the rule of law theoretically matters to them, particularly black men who are most prone to police violence and mistreatment by law enforcement. You know, the rule of law doesn't do them much good if you cannot protect people from being murdered in their own homes. And I think that matters for young people. And I've always been very interested in the chase for Latino voting. Latino voting also 48% of registered Latinos vote. It does not change. It just simply doesn't budge. So more than half of registered Latinos don't vote. - More than half of registered Latinos don't vote. So the question is that number, the population is getting increasing at a faster pace than black Americans. But if that number 48% stays the same, yes, it will have more Latinos voting. Arizona's almost 30% of the voting population is Latino. But the older Latinos will still determine the outcome of the election. - So do you feel like this chasing of the younger voters is a little bit overblown? I feel like, at least in my news diet, it takes up a lot of discussion about how this election is gonna go. It's sort of what podcast can you go on to get what younger voters to turn out? Is it maybe not as critical as it can seem? - I think 2028 will prove to be as Professor Tate said. - 2028? - 2028, because four years of Trump unfettered with immunity, maybe he runs again or tries to run again, even though constitutionally he's prohibited from doing so. I think under that regime, they may feel much more heavily that their rights and their opportunities are constrained. And so maybe that pushes them back to the Democrats. I'd like to ask Professor Tate, we have seen some interesting polling, and I'm not sure if I should believe it or not, but have you seen that the Republicans have an advantage with seniors over the age of 65, usually somewhere between an eight and 10 point advantage in the electoral share. But this year, it seems polling is far more even across older people that the Trump doesn't have the kind of advantage that Romney had, for example. And I'm wondering, is that the generation that worries about democracy and the rule of law? Is that the generation that worries about their grandchildren's future? - I don't know, we haven't talked about the gender gap. And so I think that we're looking at older women voters who are going to support Harris over Trump because I do think that they just find him too divisive and just alarmed by his rhetoric. So I think that Trump has not tried to present himself any differently than when he was president so that they sort of know exactly what they're gonna get if they vote for him a second time or a third time. But I do think that white identity politics is important. And so I do think that Trump is going to secure the lion's share of the white vote. I would just say these older white males are going to just still show up for Trump. - And the polling can be tricky in this circumstance. We saw this a couple of years ago before Dobbs' decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in Mississippi, there was a referendum, a statewide referendum whether to sort of protect abortion or not. And the polling going in had it, 59% in support of removing protection for abortion, 41% keeping it. And it turned out that when it was on the ballot, it was the reverse. It was the mid 50s to say, yes, keep the right to abortion. - Oh, so that's a huge swing. - And that was because women answering the phone in their household would not say in front of their husbands that they were gonna vote the other way. And here, I think that those people are still answering cell phone or landline, if they're in front of their family, they may say, I'm voting for Trump if I'm in a Republican household, but I'm in fact not. I'm an older woman and I'm gonna vote for Harris. And then I think the stigma of voting for Trump among the base Trump supporters is gone. I think they are gonna say they are very proud of it, they're very loyal, they wanna wear it on their sleeve. I don't think there's as much of a hidden vote for Trump as there is a hidden vote for abortion rights. And then we're gonna see this in Florida and Arizona. So the thing that might save Arizona for Harris is again, that abortion is on the ballot in Arizona. - And it's interesting there though, that you didn't exactly say there's a hidden Harris voter, but a hidden abortion voter, which then, you know, would likely vote for Harris. But that brings up an idea I wanted your opinion on that some analysts have put forth lately, that this push by Democrats to put abortion issues on the ballot this year at the state level in terms of ballot initiatives or referendum, could inadvertently potentially hurt Harris in those states because it might let some people who wanna support reproductive rights, but otherwise think that Trump is maybe better for the economy, it would allow those types of voters to effectively split their ballots. They could vote for measures that support reproductive rights and feel like they've done that, and then go ahead and vote for President Trump. - What do you think of the relationship between these statewide fights over reproductive rights and how it's going to affect the election? Is it just a one way it's gonna help Harris or is it more complicated than that? - And that's part of the issue with having swing state Democrat governors. So if you live in Michigan, they've enshrined the right to abortion, I think up to 15 weeks, at least maybe 16 weeks in the Constitution now, so it's right. So you don't have to worry about that anymore if you live in Michigan, therefore you can feel more free to vote for Donald Trump. I don't know how many people are like that because the Democrats have been tried to make a national ban an issue. Trump's punted it. JD Vance, not so much. And so that's the big question mark. Pennsylvania is the same. It's got a less democratic legislature, but a Democrat governor. So I think that's where the swing states are problematic on the issue of abortion. It won't win you as many votes because right now some of them feel quite protected. - Trump tried to confuse voters on this score. He said that he was initially gonna vote to restore abortion rights in Florida and then he quickly said no to that. And then Melania Trump has said in her biography that she is for abortion rights. And so I'm not sure that the Trump supporters really understand that Donald Trump is against abortion rights. I wanted to go back to this idea that younger voters aren't as sort of experienced with the feeling of losing rights maybe as older voters. I think especially for younger voters of color who lived through saw sort of the protests over George Floyd in 2020, which I think really brought about a lot of really strong feelings around race and inequality. And then also Trump's just toxic rhetoric and behavior around the border while he was in office. You're saying that that maybe wasn't enough of a kind of series of threats to really shake younger voters about what's at stake or enough younger voters rather? - We're struggling to determine whether it's just disaffection with the Democratic Party or it's a real appeal of the Republican Party, particularly Trump. So we don't really know. I tend to stress that it's disaffection with the Democratic Party that they have to somehow address the concerns of younger voters that they, unlike the baby boom generation, are seriously disadvantaged economically with the way things are headed in terms of the price of housing and the fact that inflation has caused groceries to go up in price significantly. And so, but the economy is doing well. Harris has emphasized that, but I still think student loan forgiveness bombed in the end because of the courts. - Although student loan, I mean, I'm not sure I'd agree with that. I think that for the two year professional schools and the trade schools, which were disproportionately lower income people and some people of color, those all went through. So those private trade schools that you take out a loan, you give them your $5,000 or your $10,000, then they close their doors a week later. Those have been forgiven. So I do think there have been some people who are disillusioned who got forgiveness. It's that I think that sort of-- - Under the Biden administration. I think the middle class, where it was sort of like, oh, we're gonna forgive loans 'cause you borrowed too much money. Not because the school went under. That's where the court said no. And I think those are the people who feel like, okay, I didn't get anything from that. I also think for human security, I don't think that the Biden administration has solved the problem, as I said, of police shootings, predominantly of black Americans. And I think you think, well, what difference does it make? If Trump says A, B, or C. Biden hasn't fixed this. And I think that is a big deal. And I also think the last thing is that Latino, Latinos are a very diverse group. There's also gradation and notorious discrimination in Latin American countries based on skin color. Like, are you lighter? Are you darker? So there's all sorts of dynamics in the Latino community in this. And I think to think, for example, that Mexicans who are here for two generations care about Guatemalans or Hondurans coming over the border, I don't know why we make that assumption. So I think that doesn't affect their views. And when he talks about that, they don't think that he's talking about me. I've been here, my family's been here for 40, 50 years. - I think it is a dramatic change, though, that immigration is not hitting the Latino community in the way that we would expect it to. I think that there has to be more research on the Latino community and their politics. But we have people interviewed saying that, one, they don't think that the mass deportation that Trump has pledged to engage in will actually be implemented. Others say that they are negatively impacted by illegal immigration themselves, and so that they don't see commonality between themselves and the plight of these migrant workers. One scholar is suggesting that the negative stereotypes about Latinos is also believed by minorities themselves and so that there's sort of internalized racism that is playing out in the Latino community as well. - And even in African-American communities, in black communities as well, you know, or South Asian communities. If you are any background and you are trying to make rent, you're trying to get your food bills, you're trying to keep your family together, and yet you see migrants getting hotels, you know, staying in hotels for weeks and weeks and weeks at a time and the government's paying for that, you say, "Wait, nobody's paying my rent." And I do think that is a significant issue for people of any background, and I don't think the Democrats have had a very good answer on it. They certainly shut the border down in June and border crossings, illegal boarding crossings have diminished dramatically, and we don't have these busloads of people being, you know, quote unquote, shipped places. Two summer ago, I think that would be really problematic for the House campaign. In legal immigration, the polling has flipped from maybe 30 years ago on legal immigration, where in those days, 60 plus 65% or more than that said, you know, immigrants are a burden, immigrants don't contribute, even though most of America is immigrant in some way, shape or form. And, you know, in the 30s said, no, they add to the economy, they add to our country, and now it's flipped. The most recent 2019 polling has been 2020 from Pew, says that 60 plus percentage of America says immigrants are good for the economy, good for the country, and it's only 30 something percent that say no, but that's legal immigrants. So, you know, people like to say documented, undocumented, but the American voter, for the most part, distinguishes between legal and not legal. And I think that is the big distinction the Democrats have failed to address ever since Barack Obama. It's been 15 years at least, and they have not come up with a good answer to that question. - So one other topic I wanted to get your thoughts on, you know, we're recording this on October 7th, one year after Hamas militants led an attack on Israel. And Israel's invasion of Gaza that followed that attack and now the sort of widening crisis in the Middle East, stemming from all of this, appears to be factoring into the election in multiple ways. It became maybe most visible during the Michigan Democratic primary in February, when over 100,000 people, about 13% of the vote, voted uncommitted in a sort of protest to Biden's handling of the war in Gaza. This in a pivotal swing state, you know, it only went for Biden by some 150,000 votes in 2020. Do you think Democrats are taking this issue seriously enough? Is there a meaningful group of voters who could be persuaded to stay home who would otherwise be supporting Biden? - I think it will hurt Harrison, Michigan, because the war in Gaza is now expanded to Lebanon and, you know, might even go further to Iran and, you know, people are no relatives, you know, whose houses have been bombed. But I think that because it's not Biden and that it's Harris who stepped in only recently that this is quiet at the movement down some. So the uncommitted, you know, are not as vocal as they had been when Biden was the candidate. But I think it's just, it's a big mess for the Democratic Party right now because they've got progressives who are, you know, want to cease fire today. And Israel is headed in a very different direction. - Yeah, and I would say like Hamas has blah, Israel. I mean, this is, you know, they're all, they have all a pretty strong interest in keeping the conflict going. It's so does Iran, which funds has blah and Hamas. So this is an intractable problem for the ages. The interesting twist to me in this is two-fold. One is that Trump is a guy who implemented the Muslim ban. Meaning if you come from seven predominantly Muslim countries, you couldn't come to the United States at all. No visas, nothing. So for those people who are in Michigan, who of our Muslim descent, who have people in the Middle East that they want to bring over or from North Africa or Central Africa, you're not going to get them into the country of Trump as president. So you can lodge a protest vote against the Democrat Party because you're unhappy that they're supporting Israel by the administration supporting Israel, but you will end up with a regime that is much less friendly to your interests. And two, Trump will allow, I mean, at this point, if you think Netanyahu is unfettered in Israel now, Trump will just say, do whatever you have to do. Like, well, we'll just support you no matter what. So then what do you do with that? It just gets so much more complicated. So I think there will be people who stay home who are protest votes. I think that their ultimate foreign policy goals will not be met by the Trump administration, but it will take three or four years for them to figure that out. And you have to, we know this from political science, voters do not like to regret their vote. They want to minimize the regret associated with their vote. And if they feel that they just can't vote for the Biden-Harris administration because of this issue, they will stay home. Whether that results in a policy outcome that's better for them, that's not always related to their capacity to sort of gauge how regretful they will be with their vote. - And as far as the amount of people, it seems to be moving or catalyzing. You don't see it as an issue that really requires a big strategic change from the Harris campaign. - Well, there's no real strategic, she's already on record as saying she wants to cease fire. She's already on record. She wants the people to stop being killed. We are an ally of Israel. And particularly since Iran is attacking Israel now multiple times. Now I think there's no going back because Iran is a quote unquote our enemy. So I think that's, as I said, strategically kind of puts the Democrats in a little bit of a better position. I also think the alliance in terms of our Americans, Palestinian Americans and African Americans, particularly in Michigan and Detroit, that's a really big important factor here. And you can see at least among black women who are polled or interviewed, they say we don't love that policy, but now we have a chance to have a black woman as president. So we are going to vote for her and hope for change. So you may see 50,000, 75,000 people stay home, but I don't think you'll say, you'll see all those uncommitted people stay home. - Are there issues or trends that you both think are sort of being undervalued or under examined right now? I mean, we've talked about some of them already, but things that in the middle of November and December people are gonna be going, how did we not think about the effects this was, X was gonna play in the election? Whether it's an issue or a demographic trend, is there anything that we're sort of missing as we're looking at it right now? - The fact that so many people are concerned about voter fraud in this election as well is I think surprising and one for historians to really wrestle with. And NPR, Morris Poe found that six and 10 are concerned about fraud in this election coming up. - Six and 10 Americans. - Yes, yes, Republicans the most, but it's still, there's some among the Democrats as well. - Are the Democrats afraid of fraud on the Trump side or the Democratic side? 'Cause the people who are convicted in 2020 were Trump supporters. - Yeah, no, they're concerned about that. If Trump loses, he's not gonna go away. He's probably going to argue that like 2020, this again was another case of fraud, but we've got so many Americans who see this issue of our elections somehow system is spoiled or is ruined or fraudulent. I think this is something that we'll have to concern ourselves with and then there's a question of violence. Will there be violence if Trump loses? - I think there could be violence in some areas amongst court Trump supporters if he loses, but I still believe most Americans are worried about their families, their housing, their kids, their rent, their groceries and schooling and they just want to live life in peace. I think that's one thing. I think the question is who will bring that peace? And so that's where I think Israeli Gaza and Hezbollah conflict comes into play, is that people think, well, Trump was a lot of things, but we didn't seem to have all this chaos and there wasn't Ukraine, Russia conflict, there wasn't Middle East conflict. So maybe he can bring us peace. And so rather than thinking of his regime as vitriolic and angry and scary and chaotic, people are thinking maybe he can get a handle on not only in domestic politics, but also international politics. So I think it's an unseen, especially among suburban men and independent voters who may think, you know, I actually think maybe he can calm the roll down because of his personality. That's a, you know, it's a long shot, but I think that's one element that we're not really thinking about. On the other hand, I think people have not forgotten, but overlooked the fact that in 2020, you know, there were 60 cases, all challenges by the Trump administration all of them rejected in the federal courts by Bush appointees, Obama appointees, Clinton appointees and Trump appointees. Now you've got a whole layer of Biden appointees in the federal system, not as many district court appointments as Trump. There weren't as many vacancies. Nonetheless, you've only added democratic leaning judges to the federal system. So I do think that the challenges won't go all that far, but I do, I agree that he won't go away. The question mark is when will the Republicans who want their party back and want to run for president in '28? If you like Brian Kemp of Georgia, for example, when will they just say, we're done, it's enough? You lost, we really need to move on and we want a fresh start, we want to be able to win. And I'm waiting for that. - But I think even if he loses that, he's had a big impact on the party, the Republican party, so that I'm not sure they will ever go away from, you know, this way of saying that the enemies are Democrats and that they're trying to replace us with immigrant voters and that we have to worry about their mobilization efforts, that they're, you know, registering fraudulent people. And I think that-- - That will resonate. I agree with you. And Trump will file to run again if he wins. He will. He'll file to run again whether he loses or he wins. He will because then he can keep raising money. And the FEC will not be able to stop him 'cause he'll make the argument that maybe he can get the 22nd Amendment repeal by the time 28 comes around so they can't legally bar him from running again. And that's, I think, whether he wins or loses, that's what we're gonna see after an organization day. - Oh my, well, yeah, just thinking about 2028 makes me want to crawl into the desk, but, huh. - Nope, it's a good thing. Looking ahead to free and fair and regularly scheduled elections is a fundamental feature of our constitution and we should all be excited to look ahead to future elections. - Yes, yes. That is a great note to end it on. We are excited for that. Wendy and Catherine, thank you both so much. This was such a helpful and insightful and thought-provoking conversation. And I look forward to having you both back on again sometime soon and we can see where we stand. - Thanks. - Thank you. - This episode was produced by me, Dan Richards, and Zach Hirsch, our show was engineered by Eric Emma. Our theme music is by Henry Bloomfield, additional music by the Blue Dot Sessions. If you like trending globally, leave us a rating and review on Apple podcasts, Spotify, or wherever you listen to podcasts. And if you haven't subscribed to our show, please do that too. It really helps other people to find us. If you have any questions or ideas for guests or topics for trending globally, send us an email at trendingglobally@brown.edu. Again, that's all one word trending globally at brown.edu. We'll be back in two weeks with another episode of Trending Globally. Thanks for listening. (upbeat music) (drum beats) [BLANK_AUDIO]
