Pandemonium Reigns
Episode 167 - Florida at Tennessee Preview
Tennessee set to host the Florida Gators this coming Saturday night. It's a large spread, but as you know, if you've been a Tennessee fan for even a short period of time, whether it be 25 years, 15 years, a year. And these two logos, these two brands get together, it really doesn't matter what the paper says. We're going to talk about the entire thing. My name is Dan. This is Pandemonium Reigns. Thank you so much for hanging out with me as we preview this Tennessee 4 game and kneeling stadium come Saturday night. And I just want to say thank you before we get started as we've continued just to experience some really cool growth to the channel and the podcast platform. So with that said, make sure you hit like on this video. You give us a five star review on Spotify, Apple podcast, wherever it is that you get your podcast. Again, thank you so much. So let's get into this thing, Tennessee, Florida, Tennessee's coming off a loss, Florida's coming off a win. Are these things going to have any kind of impact on the outcome? Come Saturday night possibly, I think if there's any game where now I'm going to sound total contradictory here or stats and things like that don't matter or the paper doesn't matter. It's this one. It's absolutely this one. Now as we get into this couple of factors and things that I want to talk about and the first thing that I want to mention is Eugene Wilson. Is Eugene Wilson going to play for the Gators come Saturday night? He warmed up against UCF but he didn't register any stats. Not going to lie to you. You can see an ounce of that game not going to pretend. I do think he is a difference maker. I think he is somebody that whether you're DJ Lagway or Graham Mertz. If he's on the field, he's probably your first read, no matter what the play call is. He's just the next factor. He's a difference maker. He's a guy who can win you some games, who can move the chains for you, who can do a lot of different things for you. I think a second factor here is we've been better at home. We've been much better at home in Newland Stadium than we have on the road. This is just the way that it's kind of gone under Hypell's time in Tennessee. So I like that to play a factor in this game comes Saturday night. I'm optimistic for this one. So before some of you go ahead and say he's a neg of all, he's got BBS, battered vall syndrome. Listen, I'm going to tell you right now, what I believe is a full prediction at the end. I pick a Tennessee to win this game, picking Tennessee to win this game. So don't jump out of me just yet, but we've been better at home. And that those are things that should play into our favor. But now let me ask you this. And I think this is where a lot of you are going to disagree with me. Is this a must win game? Is this a must win game? Well, I think it's through what lens you see that through, but I'm going to off the cuff, say, yes, this is a must win game. It is not a must win game through the lens of can Tennessee still make the playoffs. That's not the case. Tennessee can lose this game. You would still have to be you'd have to win out. You have to be BAMM, possibly convincingly and definitely beat Georgia in Sanford Stadium. So it's not a must win in that regard. It's not a must win as if you lose this game. All your goals for the 24 season are gone, dead, done, not that. It's a must win game for Josh Heifel, I think. It's a must win game for Coach Heifel. Here's what I mean by that. In Heifel's time against Florida and 21 lost to him in Gainesville, 22 obviously got a 38-33 win at home against Florida. That was breaking the streak going back to 2016. And then lost a bad one in Gainesville last year. He is currently 1 and 2 against the Gators. He is currently 0 and 3 against Georgia. He is currently 1 and 2 against BAMA. You need this one. When you lost to Arkansas on Saturday night, fans, just look. On Vol Twitter, look on Instagram, just search Vol on any social media platform and you've got fans who are done with him because he's conservative and he should have let Nico rip it and this, that and the other. You know, Amari Thomas actually showed that Heifel doesn't have a good culture going on. I'm not going to argue that. What I am going to state is Josh Heifel needs this one. He absolutely needs this one. He shouldn't have lost last year in 23. It should not have happened. We were the better team. They put together the exact rep. You can go. I would love for you to go back and listen to this. The preview episode going into that game where I said the formula for them to beat us is to keep the ball away from us, nickel and diamonds down the field and that's exactly what they did. Graham Mertz came alive. He was not very good at Wisconsin. He was not very good in his time at Florida until us and we gave the rest of the country that night the recipe on how to beat us and it was, I'm a possession, nickel and diamonds down the field. Don't make silly mistakes and put drives together and that's exactly what they did. Mertz was excellent that night. Shouldn't have lost that game though. We were the better, more superior team. Should not have happened. To refresh off an Arkansas loss where on paper you should have won, everybody was picking you. It was an opportunity to make a statement on the road to change the narrative of, can you win games on the road? You didn't do it and now you've got the fan base coming against you. Now if you lose Florida, you're going to send this fan base through an uproar, especially when everything is, you should win this game. This is a what have you done for me lately type of sport and the fan base is going to be out on you so fast if you lose this game through the lens of Tennessee. Not so much. Obviously you want to change this narrative, but as far as coach Hopwell goes, you have to change the narrative on this rivalry. It's time. We should be going into this game with a two-game streak on a two-game winning streak, but we're coming off a one-game losing streak. You can't allow this to extend. I don't think there will be any grace for you to lose this game. I'm not even saying this for myself, I'm just saying from the Tennessee fan base as a whole. We are completely irrational. We see 15 minutes in front of us and there's just some games and some things and some teams. You got to beat back when Thalmer was head coach in the early 2000s and 90s. I don't remember what time period he said this, but at Tennessee, you got to beat the big three, Florida, Georgia and Bama. You got to do it. The coaches that have not been here very long, haven't done it. The only one that beat any of them outside of hypo was Butch, two against Georgia, one against Florida in a five-year span. It's not going to cut it at this university. Not going to cut it when you have built this roster, this kind of roster, when you've put together what I believe is still an extremely positive culture, when you still have a lot to play for, a lot of things right out in front of you. I just don't think there's going to be any kind of grace if you lose this game. Again, though, before you close this video out, this guy is a negable. I love one of the guys in the comments. He was like, "Yeah, I just heard you off because I was tired of listening to the negativity." Contextualize what I'm saying, please, because I'm picking Tennessee to win. You got to change the narrative on this. You got to change the narrative on this series is my point. It's at home. It's not game. It's checker kneeling. I believe that kneeling is going to be on fire for this one, because we can be a very forgiving fan base. I expect this stadium to be packed loud, ruckus, all the things, but you got to win this one. You have to win this one. All right. So what I want to do at this point is I want to take a look at the numbers. What do the stats say about this one? Now, I know I said in the beginning that I don't think that stats are an indicator of this game, but they're so much fun to look at. So let's look at this together. This image again being brought to you by that SEC podcast and his week seven game previews appreciate him for putting this out there for the general public and podcasts like me. So if you're taking a look on YouTube, you're going to see one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, eight statistics here and all but one favor Tennessee, all but one favor Tennessee. So let's walk through this slowly pass offense efficiency. This is the only one that favors Florida. It is what it is, y'all. It is what it is. Nico wasn't good last Saturday, wasn't good. I would say if that game is just a little bit different, this stat probably plays actually into our favor. All right. Florida's at 34 in the country, Tennessee is at 55 pass defense efficiency, Florida 86. Not very good, not very good, especially for a brand and logo and an SEC historical power of like the Florida Gators, Tennessee 43rd in the country. Rush offense efficiency, Florida 54, okay, Tennessee 46. Here's the big one, rush defense efficiency, Florida 95, not good, not good at all, Tennessee 25, third down offense, Florida 77, Tennessee 25, pretty good, third down defense. This is a big one. This is a grand Canyon size gap, Florida 106 on third down defense, Tennessee, numero uno. Explosive plays offense, Florida 69, Tennessee 44. There's another massive gap, Grand Canyon size gap, explosive plays defense 104 for Florida 4 for Tennessee 4. Now what's funny is as I start to read these stats, what I'm noticing immediately is that maybe I should be eating my words a little bit, just a little bit. Maybe the stats are going to be a bit of an indicator inside of this one. Because the where did it go, third down defense, 106 for Florida, number one for Tennessee. I saw a little bit of the Florida Mississippi state game and what I noticed in that one is defensively for Florida, there were some issues getting lined up, okay, what I heard from the Andy and Ari show regarding the Florida UCF game is that Florida had issues getting lined up defensively and UCF was almost waiting on them, don't know, I'm giving you second hand information. That could play into our favor, if they don't get that fixed, which you have to believe a SEC program like Florida saw that after the Mississippi state game and started working on it to get it fixed. And if it showed its weary head again against UCF, you didn't get it fixed. I think we would all be naive to think, oh, Florida just doesn't consider it a problem, they're not aware of it, I'll silly, I don't believe that at all. So that could play into our benefit. I'd like to touch back on that again a little bit later. And then finally, the explosive plays defense, Florida 104 in the country, Tennessee number 4 in the country, that's 100 spot difference, 100 place difference. The big play should be there for us, statistically speaking, statistically speaking it should. You could argue that it should have been there for Arkansas, I would argue and say our tackles played like absolute garbage, and that prevented a lot of the ability to put the ball down field or have the explosive play. When the tackle position is not very good, you don't have to rush extra, you can send four, I mean there were times where they sent three and still got to us. So all the other guys can drop back and coverage. And again, if you listen to my recap episode on the Arkansas game, if you look at that last play, there were no options there, again he should have put it up, should have gave an opportunity to a guy to make a play, but that did not happen. You need to see that happen, you need to see that change come Saturday night in Newland against Florida. You've got to see that narrative change. All right, let's talk about what it's going to take for Florida to win this game. Let's talk about Florida's path to victory. I think it is a much more steep path than it is for Tennessee. I think it's a much more difficult path than it is for Tennessee, but I do think that there is a path. And for those of you that are saying there's no chance that for a win this game, I would ask you, are you of the same camp that says, no way Tennessee loses to Arkansas. Hypele is undefeated off the bye week. Are you a part of that camp? Are you seeing what's unfolding around the country? We were watching 2007 happen all over again. So there's a path for Florida exists. It's why you play the game. So here's Florida path and a lot of it is like that of 20, what they did in 2023 offensively. Put long drives together, nickel and dimas, but I think there's also an added element that they're going to have to do and that is they're going to have to take some shots on some 50/50 balls and they're going to have to win those, which I think is a tall task for them because go back to Jamal McCoy. I don't know that I would test him. I don't know that he would be the one that I would try to take a chance on that 50/50 ball because all of those passes in the Arkansas game, where they were completed against him were defended exceptionally well, extremely well, but I do think you got a nickel and dimas and play the sticks, the chess game of the sticks, if that makes sense. And when the 50/50 ball opportunity comes, you have to win that game. I think you have to win the time of possession. I think you have to play keep away. I think you have to force us to continually to play from behind. Keep some kind of margin of, what are words here? Some kind of separation on the scoreboard in your favor, constantly. You're going to have to play four quarters. I don't think that you get, I don't think you get a third or a, you can get away with playing one, two or three. I think you need to play a complete and full game. You almost need to be mistake free. All right. And I think you need to do exactly, exactly what Arkansas did defensively against us. Let me take you back to Tennessee pit 2021 pit is in Knoxville. They run this double pass might even have been a double reverse pass. I don't remember. I remember whoever's throwing the ball shouldn't have been throwing the ball. They end up scoring on this for the rest of the season almost what felt like every team we played that year attempted that against us. Games continually saw things on film for them to continually run that. I don't know if we were failing to adjust to it. Obviously I'm not in the locker room. I'm not in the position rooms, but there's something on film there for these teams to continue to try and do that. And now the problem is regarding this Arkansas game. Arkansas has put something on film defensively that is going to cause problems for us. And the questions that surrounds that is, can we get that corrected in a week? And I don't know. The formula is this, show seven, rush five, show seven, rush five, drop two and mix it up. That's exactly what I wanted us to do to Taylor and Green, but we didn't. It's exactly what I wanted us to do. And if our tackles have the night like they had in Fayetteville, Arkansas, that's a recipe for disaster. Tackles have to be improved, okay, that, that paddy cake stuff that we call her doing and that's flying all over Twitter, that cannot repeat, cannot repeat. The good thing for us is Florida doesn't have a landed Jackson. They don't have that guy. But I don't care who is your edge rusher. If that's your effort, it don't matter. It could be me. And I'm, I'm six, three, two, oh five with, with like a definition dad bod. That can't happen. That absolutely cannot happen. So Cineco through a mental whirlwind before the snap. And if you get beat, you get beat on it, I think you just continue to do it because if you do it enough, I think there's going to be enough plays that result in us being behind the chains or some kind of tone over that could play into their favor. All right. Here we go. Let's talk about Tennessee's path now. Tennessee's path is not near as steep. There's actually one thing that I think that Tennessee can do. And if they do this thing, it doesn't matter. I think Tennessee will win and I think Tennessee will cover. And that's play pissed off. If Tennessee comes in this game and sets the tone immediately, which I hope we, I hope we kick off and defensively we just, we're just, we're flying off the ball and we're getting after it and we're playing aggressive. I don't know that you can run enough draws screens and counters and things like that to offset an aggressive defense for four quarters. Don't think there's enough. I think if you play absolutely pissed off, controlled chaos, controlled pissed offness, if that's a word, I think that's enough. I think if you are physical, physical at the point of attack, physical on the edges, you jam the absolute crap out of those receivers, you play with low pads, you hit them. I don't know that it matters. Do everything and tangibly to not give them hope. If they have somehow managed to put a drive together, make that offense, go to the sideline and go, Oh, dear God, we're going to have to keep doing that all night. Hit them in the mouth, draw blood and take your, take your jabs, take your, take your haymakers and play pissed off. I think if you do that, I think this is a win. I think this is a win because we're that much better on, on roster, on paper, all the things. It's at home. Keep this, keep this stadium in it alive. Do not give Fordham a chance to silence our crowd. Don't give him a chance to do it. I think all, I think this is completely capable, but it's all on a high pole this week and how he sets the tone for this, it's all on high pole. It's all on our leadership. It's on, it's on guys like Brum McCoy, it's on guys like Keenan Pilly to set tone. When I would love to see a quick hitch to a Brum McCoy and him lower his shoulder like he did against Clemson. What was that? Into the 22 season in the Orange Bowl. That safety regretted coming down on Brum. Do that. I mean, it's like basketball when you're in the paint and guys are reaching in aggressively. You've got possession of the ball, offensive or decent, and they're aggressive with their hands. You put those elbows out. You give them a little elbow to the chest. They're not going to be so quick to throw those hands in there. Do more than give them an elbow though. Give them an elbow to the mouth and continue to do that. Now, if we talk about schematics, I would love to see us come back to Tempo, which is exactly what I said against Arkansas. I'm totally cool that you didn't run it against Oklahoma. I don't think it needed to be ran. I think it was a very wise decision to not go Tempo against Oklahoma and play a slow pace. Change blows because eventually our blows are going to have a more lasting impact. But I do think you need to go Tempo. I do think you need to go Tempo, but now you have to ask yourself, is Nico capable of it? Are there some concepts? Are there some approaches that he's not comfortable with? These are all fair questions. Can he do it? Is that the reason we haven't done it yet? I'm still a believer on Nico. I still think he is elite. I'm not going to ride a guy off because I think he had a bad night. Are there some things maybe Hypo doesn't trust Nico with yet? That's a very real possibility. Maybe there's some things that Nico hasn't quite grasped yet, and that's okay. It's year one. It's year one for him. Yes, I know he's been in the system longer than that, but it's still year one playing. Hooker was not Hooker Alabama 22 that he was pit 21. It took some time. It's development. But I would like to see Tempo. I think Tempo is a great recipe for ending Florida, come Saturday. Speaking of offense, we've got an absolute dude in Dylan Sampson, an absolute dude. Here's my problem with this. Let's talk about play calling just for a minute. I'm not going to talk about is it aggressive, is it conservative? I'm a little more frustrated in the style when it comes to the running game. When we run, it is inside zone, period. That's it. We don't run stretch, we don't run power, we don't run counter, none of it. We don't run any of it. We run inside zone. We don't even run outside zone. We run inside zone, and at some point, you have to ask yourself how much longer can we sustain this? Just running this style of runs. How much longer can you sustain it? I would love to see more out of the run game. Finally, let's close with this. What's a win going to mean for each team? I don't know I've touched on this just a little bit thus far, but a win for Florida. You might as well go ahead and sign Napier to an extension. That's going to buy him another year in Florida. If he goes into New Zealand Stadium and pulls off this win night game, Jack or Neelan, Josh Hyple, we're still a top 10 team. Play-offs are still right on the cusp force. You all but end our possibility for the playoffs. Again, we would have to win out when the likelihood of beating Bama in Georgia. I don't know about that man. That would mean a ton. You lose this game if you're Florida. I don't know if it's as bad. I think the grace was bought for you coming up this UCF game, but you beat a team that you should. You didn't do it by blowing at the scoreboard. I think you had 21, 24, something like that. You held them to 11, 13, something like that. Don't quite remember. Not going to pretend to know. But I do think you're expected to lose this game. It's a way, not all the things that I've already said. I think the risk and the reward is much bigger on the Tennessee side of things. If you lose this thing or come Saturday night for Tennessee, that's detrimental. You shouldn't lose this game. I'm not going to spend a ton of time there, but it's not good. It's not good. The game base is going to be out on you real, real fast. Again, you need to change the narrative on this thing. A win, though. Here is an opportunity to hit the reset button after Arkansas. This Florida game is going to tell us what has taken place in the locker room this week. It's going to tell us. If we come out, we're lackluster, flat-footed, blah, woe is me, no spark, no energy, no fight. That's going to tell us all that we need to know on what took place in practice this week, what took place in the locker room this week, what took place in the position rooms. We're going to know it's going to tell us I'm going to believe, though. I easily choose to believe that we're going to come out aggressive and Hyrule has called them to the carpet. He's called himself to the carpet. He has hit the reset button. He's asked a lot of hard questions about himself, his staff, and this roster, and his team. I'm going to say he's done a well all the right things. Again a loss is detrimental, though win could mean a lot. Here is an opportunity to get right. Get right on your season and get right before Alabama comes to town. Alabama is a much more tall task than Florida is. It's a much bigger hurdle. We were all so optimistic before this Arkansas game. Now as fans, we're a little unsure of ourselves, right? There's a lot to play for here, a lot to lose, a lot to play for, a lot to gain, a lot out for our reward. That's going to bring us to the end of this thing, talking Tennessee, talking Florida, Tennessee, favored by 15, 15 and a half at this point with an over under of, I believe, 54 and a half. I'm hoping what that means is that Tennessee scores 55, and we cover by a half point if you pick up what I'm laying down, all right? Again, thank you so much for hanging out with me. Make sure you hit like and subscribe on this video. Super thankful for the growth that we had. I would love for you to drop a comment in the YouTube section and let me know what your score prediction is. Let me know if you think I'm crazy, if you think I'm stupid, do you still think if I have Battlefall Syndrome, you know, whatever. Don't care. Love your comments. It's good for the channel. I really, really appreciate it. I love you guys. Have a fantastic weekend. God bless. Go Vols. [music] (upbeat music)