Gwynn & Chris On Demand
Thursday 10/10 Padres Roundtable: NLDS Edition
"My dad works in B2B marketing. "He came by my school for career day "and said he was a big row as man. "Then he told everyone how much he loved "calculating his return on ad spend. "My friends still laughing at me to this day." - Not everyone gets B2B, but with LinkedIn, you'll be able to reach people who do. Get $100 credit on your next ad campaign. Go to linkedin.com/results to claim your credit. That's linkedin.com/results. Terms and conditions apply. Linked in, the place to be, to be. (upbeat music) - It's that time, prior faithful. Time to discuss everything going on with the Padres. We've gathered the entire 97.3, the fan crew together to bring you the most in-depth discussion on the priors in our weekly Padres Round Table, presented by San Diego Round Table Pizza. Here's your host, Ben Higgins. Well, here we are, Padres fans. A little over 24 hours away from what will be, one way or another, one of the most consequential games in the history of the San Diego Padres. A game five against the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Division Series. Welcome into our commercial free Padres Round Table, brought to you by Round Table Pizza. It is Pizza Royalty. I am joined by almost all of the crew today. Tony Gwen Jr., of course, went up with the team to Los Angeles for the game. But we've got Annie Halberon. Good morning. At the end from Annie and Elston, Stephen Woods next to Annie. Hi, Benny. Craig Elston in the middle, his usual spot. Present. Chris Elo, backing in for a second straight week. No vacuuming, and yours truly. Well, obviously, it would have been nice here to come in, having clinched the series last night. And we'd be looking ahead to an NLCS against the Mets. But that is not the story. The story is a Padres offense that has suddenly gone cold over the last two days at Petco Park, only scoring in one of the 17 innings in which they came to the plate, and not scoring in any of the last 15 innings in which they stepped to the plate. So Annie, what do you diagnose as the Padres' offensive difficulties and some of the root causes here? I think it's baseball. They were slightly better against relievers during the regular season than they were the starting rotation. They have been better against the starters in the postseason. But they're seeing better arms coming out of the bullpen. So to me, this is an offense that knows how to hit. They know how to score runs. They got to figure that out by Friday, yes. But I don't think that it's a chronic problem for them. What's is it more of who the Dodgers are throwing at them? Or do you think some Padres offensive guys truly are struggling? I think you don't like what you're seeing out of the top, certainly, with Luis Arise. I mean, he's hitting fly balls. And it's funny, man, because when he hits a fly ball, he puts a beautiful swing on it, and it goes nowhere. Because I think he swings the bat like 68 miles an hour. When he does it, but it just doesn't go anywhere. And if he's not set in the table, it just makes it harder to scratch out those runs. He really needs to be more of an igniter at the top, or not be at the top. Craig, how do you view the Padres offensive difficulties the last couple of days? Do we agree that they are offensive difficulties? Well, I mean, yeah, absolutely. And throughout the playoffs, the Padres have not scored once the starter leaves the game. They've had a great game plan against the starting pitchers. I think they've had really good luck rolling the dice in terms of who they've gotten. They didn't have to see sail, so on and so forth. But the Dodgers bullpen is good. It's deep. It's varied. And last night, in one of the best managed games I've ever seen, Dave Roberts completely outmanaged Mike Schilt circles a random, honestly, running in the right reliever at the right time. And the lineup was set up to give him perfect lanes to navigate, and he navigated it. So it's on the Padres to make an adjustment. Let me follow up with you there, Craig. You said Dave Roberts outmanaged Mike Schilt. I think Dave Roberts managed a heck of a game. Where do you feel like Mike Schilt went wrong in that game? Well, right at the start, of course, you should never start a starter on three days rest unless you absolutely have to. It's a losing strategy in Major League Baseball. It's proven over almost three decades of data since the wildcard era. And especially in the modern game, where pitchers aren't, stretch out to throw 275 innings. Don't start every four days. It's a drastic, drastic departure. But I'm sure it's going to come up later, too. But you can't overload your lineup in a bullpen day to give the opposing manager a straightforward lane. To say, first I make the move here. Then I make the move there. And those were like blinking signs. Put in the lefty here, put in the righty there. And it was used to perfection. We'll get back to Dylan Cease in just a second. Chris, I want to give you a chance to talk about the Padres offense. The lack of runs other than one inning over the past two days. Yeah, I just put some numbers on what Craig said. Of the 30 runs they scored in the postseason, 23 have been against starters. So they've done nothing. And maybe they're spending a little too much time prepping for the starter and not able to put together the right game plan for a reliever. But I think ultimately it comes down to what Annie said. This is baseball. You're facing really good pitchers. It's not like the Padres were completely wiped out last night. They had eight left on base. They had some opportunities. A couple of big hits could have changed that game around. It did not happen similar to game one when they had some chances at the end. And it did not happen. So it's going to come down to somebody hitting a long ball in game five and coming up with a couple of those hits. So yeah, but this is Dodgers, man. They got great bullpen. Padres do too. And so I'm not shrinking away from that. Yeah, you know, Sarah has pointed out on our show that every pot rather than I think Kyle Lagashioka had a hard hit ball. They did get seven hits. They had base runners. And as someone who watches a little less maybe emotionally attached to these games, he said, I didn't really see any offensive issues. That's just a baseball game where that happens sometimes. And I go, I guess that's one way to look at it. I truly have been concerned about jerks and pro far in the third spot. I think someone tweeted after his at bat and whether it was the sixth or the seventh inning. It's not like the 38th straight pop up by jerks and pro far. And then he came through and actually had a really nice jerks and swing in his last at bat and lined one between first and second for a hard hit ball, you know, advancing a runner. Something we saw so many times over the course of the year as a Padres fan, you kind of hope. All right, is that the moment that got him locked in? Is a rise, getting hit the other way and not hitting a pop up. And it was fumbled a little bit at shortstop, but getting on base there, is that something that can carry over into the next game? Because those are the two guys that I've had the most offensive concern. But even in this, we're concerned the Padres got shut out. They scored until yesterday at least four in every game in the playoffs. They've won four of their six playoff games. That's a better winning percentage than they had in the regular season in which they had the second best record in all time. It really just comes down to tomorrow. If they win tomorrow, nothing is wrong in the Padres universe. And if they lose tomorrow, everything is a disaster in Padres universe. Of course, of course. I mean, I was just thinking about that today. What's he in terms of like game four NLDS 2024 is either going to be one of the most remembered games in Padres history, or we are going to literally forget it by Saturday. The minute the last out is recorded, if it's Robert Suarez or Tanner Scott, whatever, and you get that last out, you'll never bring it up again. Remember when we should have done this or we should have done that, it'll be over. And you're onto the Mets. And it's the absolute agony and ecstasy of this game that we all love so much. I think we should overreact a little bit more to it. Don't forget, this is the first time the Padres have been shut out since the first game after the All-Star break. That's right. And as soon as that happened, they won, I believe, seven in a row. Can we do it again? All it's going to take is seven in a row to put us in a really nice position right now. I like that. Up to you all in the series. That's right. But I'm here for you. Let's do it. So Craig, you mentioned Dylan Cease. You were a vociferous before game four, that it was not a good idea to start him on short rest. And clearly, it didn't work out for the Padres. However, do you think that Dylan Cease's struggles had to do with the short rest? Or is he just someone who has not performed well in big games? And if they had waited until tomorrow and started him, is it perhaps would have been an even worse time to see Dylan Cease struggling in a game five? I mean, who can tell? It's hard to tell, right? Could it have been the three days only? He might know that, or maybe he doesn't even know that. Maybe he isn't even sure, because he's never done it before in his career. He had the velocity. I mean, he was definitely throwing hard. He just didn't have the command. And that is sometimes the first sign of-- it can be a sign of armed fatigue or whatnot. But it was interesting to me. It was an interesting choice, because you have a risk with the three days, for sure. You know he didn't have his best start on Saturday against the Dodgers. They touched him then, got to him last night. He said after the game, he only really didn't like one pitch. He thought it through pretty well beyond that. So I think it was a tough position for him to be put in at the same time. He wanted it. I had said all week, I thought you'd go with Martine Perez. And the reasons being that he's got the post. He's an experience. He has won a World Series. He's a veteran. You let him go out there. You let him try to at least get through a few innings. And then you kind of structure a bullpen game, maybe kind of similarly, to what the Dodgers did. You're working your high leverage relievers in and out of the game. But I know that's easier said than done. And look, the Dodgers are really good against lefties. So there's reasons probably why they didn't want to go that route. But they had to make a decision here with what they were going to do, and they had to kind of ride with it. Well, and the offense really bailed. Dylan Cease and Mike shilt out. Big 100% they absolutely won. You can change that decision. But the offense didn't score. So who cares? Sandy Colfax on the mound. Tom Siever on the mound. Madison Bumgarner is pride. You know, like they bailed both of those guys out. If you can't get a run across the board, it doesn't-- it's moot. I'll see a couple of things about Dylan Cease. Number one, I do like the fact that he-- if we believe the stories that we heard went to shilt and said, give me the ball. I want that, right? I like that. I like that a lot from my guys on my team. And I want that kind of attitude of give it to me. I want it, you know? Didn't work out. Sucks. He's not pitched well in the postseason. ERA of 1440. That's not what you wanted. It's not what you got Dylan Cease for at all. There is something to be said to you for going out and setting the tone, you know? And when you look up and it's three nothing, you're like, all right, well, there goes the tone. Thank you. There goes the tone. The tone is gone. So I think while we can say that they were bailed out by the lack of offense last night, it's also up to the starting pitcher to absolutely set the tone. It didn't happen. Craig, we've seen other ace type pitchers struggle in the postseason. Clayton Kershaw is one who struggled for a long time. You know, great regular season pitchers struggled in the postseason. What do you think in terms of what really was the cause of Dylan? It has been the cause of Dylan Cease's struggles. You know, it was another thing that used to happen to Clayton Kershaw all the time in his early playoff career. They'd throw him on three days rest when he hadn't thrown on three days rest all year. And then he'd get hammered in a game. And then people said, well, this guy stinks. It's like one of the worst strategic decisions that you can see coming from a mile away. I talk about this all the time. And I've said it to everyone. So they, you know, to make sure that, you know, that I'm not second guessing, like, if the Dodgers had started jumbo on three days rest, I would have been waving the flag saying the exact same thing. If I saw the Mets or the Phillies make that move, I'd say the exact same thing. It's a panic move. It's taking one of your strong things and making it weaker. Having said that, Dylan Cease, I think is a bad matchup with the LA Dodgers. Because he is a guy that does not have elite command. He has elite stuff. He demands chase. That's how he wins, is with chase. And he threw maybe three effective sliders in his two appearances to the Dodgers over this time. Because they don't chase out of the zone. And when he's not hitting the zone and he's not tunneling properly at the top of the zone, he's going to have a hard time succeeding. - Can I also say he's made more starts than anyone in the big leagues. He's threw more pitches than I think all but two pitchers or something. He's top 10 in innings pitch. Like he has done a lot for this team. There might be a little bit there, too, of just-- - Well, they've seen him. They've seen him. They've had success against him. - And we agree with what Martin Perez is not like. And he said, he's not a good matchup against the Donal. - He's not, but-- - They haven't seen him at the series, you know? - The 397 off him, OPS 1100, you know. - But there was that one start. That meaningless start on Thursday. - The psychological reason I don't like this move so much goes beyond the math. It's that you're telling a member, you're starting staff who you've believed in. - You're not. - That this guy over here who's tired is a better call than you. - But psychologically-- - He definitely aren't trusting the guy anymore. I mean, they didn't use him at all. - They didn't use him at all. - I don't even know why he's necessarily on the roster. Like, they don't trust him right now. - Psychologically, though, to the other side of that coin is what I was just saying about a guy walking into your office and saying, "I got us." - Right. - Maybe the ball didn't work. Sucks, you know, it didn't work. And you see it so much in post-season baseball. Superstars that are no longer superstars when October hits, we've seen it a million times. - And then you see also guys that maybe the best matchups go out and pitch great games or have a great-- - Okay, if this is about matchups then Chris, is maybe less about Dylan C's versus Martine Perez and just saying, "We want to save our best matchup." You Darvish for game five on a potential game five on Friday, the guy who has had success against the Dodgers, who has the elite command to battle that line up, the repertoire to mix it up twice in the same series and face that team. Is it more about just wanting it to have saved Darvish for the next game as opposed to anything that had anything to do with Dylan C's? - Yeah, you read my mind. I mean, and I think you read Mike Schiltz mind because I think that's what he, what it ultimately came down to, if he didn't use Dylan C's in game four, went with a bullpen there, did something different and they lost, he would have had to go with Dylan C's in game five. He could not have told Dylan C's his ace guy. - Yeah, man. - You know, we're gonna skip you and go with Darvish. I just don't think he could put himself in that position. So he had to roll the dice with Dylan C's at backfired. There's absolutely no question about that. I tweeted that out today or last night and that had backfired and I got more responses than I've ever got for any tweet in my tweeting career. So I think a lot of people are kind of agreed with me or either were vehemently disagreed but wanted to respond, but yes, I think they want to Darvish for game five and this was the only way they could do it. - And it's so funny too because when you go to the other team, we talked about it a little bit this morning. They've got Yamamoto on regular rest. Like he's in, in fact, their rest is one more day. He's got it. He's ready to go. Dave Roberts will not get crushed in the media tomorrow or Saturday if they end up losing that game. If you don't start Yamamoto, I think Mike Schilt would have potentially maybe, right? If you start Dylan C's who just didn't pitch well in Dodger Stadium, it's a weird situation. $325 million for a player and Dodger fans are going, don't start him. Don't start this guy in game five. Please do not start him. I think Pottery's fans, we would have come in here. I would have come in here Monday morning and be like, you got Dylan C's. What'd you go get Dylan C's for if it's not for game five, right? - I'd also like to crush the narrative of the Dodgers who have battled all the injuries. That would have been Joe Musgrove's game yesterday. I think everyone would have been supremely comfortable and confident in having Joe Musgrove on the mound yesterday and the Pottery's were only in that situation because any major injury loss that put them at a disadvantage this time against the LA Dodgers. All right, so Great bullpen game by the Dodgers. And a bit on orthodox in how heavily they leaned on some of their later inning guys early in the game. And I wanted to get the panel's thoughts on that because the Pottery's do end up going in with a bullpen more direction game at some point, you know, if they move on, you know, in another series when Joe's turn comes up again, Annie, would you like to see Mike Schilt go with a similar strategy and see guys like Jason Adam and Tanner Scott and the third and the fourth inning rather than saving them as most managers do going with the lower leverage guys early and saving the higher leverage guys for later. Dave kind of dumped out, you know, the kitchen sink at the Pottery's early in that game. - Yeah, and he had them matched up. I mean, he just had them matched up in terms of when is the top of the lineup coming up? When is this guy gonna, you know, it really went to plan for him. And I think that's what works. So if Mike Schilt went that direction, I have no doubt Mike Schilt would be able to manage that sort of thing. He's shown that he's obviously understands matchups and does a good job in the bullpen and managing the bullpen. So I, yeah, I would like to see it. I mean, if it was useful for them. - Yeah, it's the thought of having to manage a game like that makes me sick to my stomach. And the thought of having to watch my manager manage my team makes me sick to my stomach. There was no counterpunch last night for the Pottery's, right? We all felt it. Like there was just no counterpunch every time. You thought, ooh, maybe we can counter. Nope, nope, perfect guy here. Lefty, this arm slot, whatever. Like it was just, it worked out beautifully. If you see the exact same plan again, can you take advantage? Is the biggest answer? And I think you will. I think you will see could be the exact same thing. - It worked out so well, Craig, for the Dodgers that you kind of forget about what could happen. I mean, if the Pottery's had put together a couple of rallies and forced Dave to make extra moves and it's a close game at the end. And all of a sudden you're down to Ben Casparius and some of the back end guys in the most critical innings to save your season. There is a clear path where that can backfire on you as well. - Well, you know, it's funny. Up in the stands with my pottery sata, but he's watching the game from my season seats. You know, we talk about it at the beginning being all confident, right? Well, it's so hard to win a bullpen game because you have to pitch a perfect game. It's a chain, it's a chain. And if one link breaks in the chain, the whole thing falls apart because you've got a plan for the fourth, the fifth, the sixth. Well, okay, what happens if your third inning guy gets crushed? All of a sudden it's all out the window. So the dynamic of that remains present. And I'm not gonna say if, when the Dodgers do this in game five, they're gonna do the exact same thing. If they don't, they're punting. They're punting their advantage in the series 'cause they have figured this out because the flip of that was by the fourth inning, we're sitting there, the same people. And just looking just go, they've got this on lock right now. - We've done these round tables all year long and Annie today has decided to raise her hand which has got a point. All you have to do is give me a knowing look Annie and I will definitely call on you. That's why I'm not sure if they will. That's why I'm not sure if they will do another bullpen game. - He knows that knowing look. - You have to, everything worked for them last night because you're absolutely right. You have to, every single reliever that comes out of that pen has to be on his game. No one didn't have their stuff last night and you have to have that happen again on Friday to perfection. I thought Zander made a good point. They didn't work in the zone hardly at all last night. Like they worked on the edges and then went in the zone when they needed to and the difficulty of painting that and doing the exact same thing. Now they're very good. - I think they might do like a part of that. - Like a hybrid. - What's the word I'm looking for? A hybrid of that. - A hybrid of that. - But if you go with the exact same thing, I don't know. - Which is, again, the hybrid, they're all hybrids. I mean, the plan can be the-- - The libraries might go with a hybrid too. - The plan can be the plan. If you go out and you get to Ryan Frazier last night, you're right, man. It's Casparius and it's those guys. It's the kid that throws 104. That's probably hit pretty well the other night. But they didn't have to do that. And that's the tough part. Mike Schultz talked all year about being what? Elite adjusters. It's so hard to be an elite adjuster when there's a new arm, every single inning, right? But with the same plan in place, you get the feeling that it's gonna go the same way, you gotta adjust. And we gotta see if their elite adjusters are not. They have one chance to prove it. - I also think, you know, we keep crediting Dave Roberts. We had a brief discussion at the end of the show. You get the sense that the Dodgers, a lot of these instructions are coming from Andrew Friedman and above. And is this gonna be a bullpen game? Who's starting in this game? - It's a holistic approach. - They call it holistic in San Diego. - It's very holistic in San Diego as well. - It is, it's very much in modern baseball. It's not just the Dodgers or the Padres, but it's an analytics department that feeds the front office that-- - Yeah, he's getting his info today. - Yeah, that gives information down to the dugout. Chris, I know you're kind of shaking your head on it, that there's not a lot of gut managing-- - Chris loves analytics. - Any time anymore. I mean, Mike Shelton still has a gut, and he's talked about his gut sometimes and what it tells him. I don't know how free Lee, he's allowed to use that gut, but he's got one and he likes to use it when the mood strikes him. - I just listened to everybody talk about the bullpen day and everything that went into it just makes me a little ill. The whole day of baseball made me ill. The Tigers did a bullpen game and they got a shut out. The Dodgers did a bullpen day and they got a shut out. If the Dodgers play the Tigers in the World Series and they go seven bullpen games apiece, I think baseball in my mind will have blown up forever. - There'll be a new rule by the time next season starts. - It's very possible, and Craig's right, the Dodgers be idiots not to try the exact same tactic tomorrow night, but I'm gonna just cross my fingers that what John Smoltz has said over and over again turns out in game five. And that is if you pitch eight different guys, eight different guys have to be good. It only is gonna take one to be off, and I'm confident the Padres will find that one. I hope in games. - My dad works in B2B marketing. He came by my school for career day and said he was a big row as man. Then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend. My friends still laughing me to this day. - Not everyone gets B2B, but with LinkedIn, you'll be able to reach people who do. Get a $100 credit on your next ad campaign. Go to LinkedIn.com/results to claim your credit. That's LinkedIn.com/results. Terms and conditions apply. LinkedIn, the place to be, to be. - Five, it's our 97.3, the fan. Padres Roundtable presented commercial free by Roundtable Pizza. It is pizza royalty. - All right. Second guessing is obviously a big part of the job that we do. So this question is your second guessing question. If you could go back and change one decision the Padres have made from the first four games of this series, like one pivotal moment, something you would have liked to have seen them do differently. What do you think is that big moment woods that you wanna change? We talked about it a little bit during our show. - Yeah, we did. There were a couple good answers. I won't steal them all. I'll say the Mookie walk to two. I kinda understood it after it happened and it was explained to me, but that was the one ending, you know, other than yesterday's game. I thought really kinda got away. Got away from Mike Shilton, the Padres. But yeah, I mean, with Mookie Betz who's not performed until the last couple of games, keep him on the ropes, you got him two strikes, try to get him. I understood it, it was explained to me after. But yeah, I think you changed that and see where your fortunes lie. I mean, they got you. They got you that ending and it was the difference in the game. - Craig, is it simple for you as not starting to see some three days rest? Does that change this? Do you think that changes this series at all? 'Cause as we said, the offense kinda didn't perform. So would you go back and change that or would you pick something else? - Oh no, I mean, absolutely. I would have started Adrian Morihone yesterday. - Yeah? - That would have been-- - You look good, too. - That would have been the move. And it would have been our modified bullpen day to go after them kind of lane by lane by lane. - Even with Teosker in the three. - Yeah. - Without Freeman, the gamesmanship that they employed a couple hours before the game. - I still would do it that way. You've still got Muncie right there too. - Yeah. - You know, it is a little different. But then again, they did a little gamesmanship too. - They did. - But yeah, I mean, I won't try and take two. That'd be the one out of there. - That's the one. Chris, what would you choose to change? - I would have put Jackson Merrill and Jerks and Profar in the first couple of rows of the outfield for the top of the first century. 'Cause Muncie best is almost guaranteed to hit one just over the fence. - Just over the wall. - So let's just put an end to that idea. I don't have anything major beyond, you know, I disagreed with the Dylan C's move. I said so, it's over now. I'm surprised I haven't heard Woodsy say the following phrase. We just got to flush it. - Flush it. - 'Cause I know it's one of his favorites. - My favorite. - And that's all you can do. - That's all you can do. - It didn't work, it backfired. I haven't had any major problems. There's been two, you know, four great games. It's gone two-two. You know, let's just see what happens now. I don't have anything lingering. - Annie, any changes that you would have made? - I really don't. I mean, if someone wants to take mine, go ahead. We talked about the pitching for yesterday, which could have been a change, but then at the end of the day, the offense needed a score. So I wouldn't have changed the outcome of the game unless maybe it was a tone set or something like that. But, you know, even the game that they lost in LA on Saturday was a close game. It was 7-5, right? Or something like that. - Chance to win. - Yeah, so the only one really was yesterday. So if anyone has another one that they wanna take, take it. - So many in our chats said you Darvish, instead of Dylan Cease in game one. I mean, again, you got Dylan Cease for a reason. And it hasn't panned out yet, but yeah, that's one you could go back. - It could pan out in a different matchup. - 100%. - It could pan out, you know, in the next series. - Yeah, Padre's get there. Cease can be a great asset. - Well, we can't go anywhere without him. - Well, we can't go anywhere without him. - You're not gonna win the World Series. - No. - If he pitches to a 14-year-old. - No, there's no chance. - Especially with Joe Musgrove out. You can win, obviously you only need to win four out of seven in a championship or a World Series. And you can have a pitcher not perform and still win that series. But when you lose a starter like Joe, and if you have a Dylan Cease who's not performing, you can't expect Michael King and you Darvish to be essentially perfect then for their four games. - And now you gotta go to Martine Perez and say-- - It's just a trust you know. - Yeah, that's what makes this matchup, I mean a really good matchup because the Dodgers are in that position. We've got Yoshinobo, Yamamoto, and Jack Flaherty, neither of which they think they really even trust. And then who? - That's right. - So it's kind of backs up against the wall. - It's a literal must-win game. - We finally got to the must win. - The must win. - Finally got a must win. - Finally got a must win. - The must win, our first to the season. Benny got to the odds. - Oh yeah, that's the first. - Benny got to the odds this morning on Fangrasset. It was 50.5 to 49.5. It's the closest thing that you've ever seen. - And the World Series odds are like 19% Dodgers, 18%. - I mean we're right there. This is-- - I mean we can all flip five coins and just play it all out right here with a penny. - Right. - Nickel a dime and a quarter and figure out how this series is gonna go. A lot of people pointed out when I brought this up during our show. More walks to Shoe Heotani. Don't let him beat you. And honestly I think the Padres have done an incredible job against Shoe Heotani this series. He is hitting 250 with a 333 on base percentage and a 771 OPS. - That's a dream. - That to me is called containing Shoe Heotani as well as any team. - Seven K's. - Has contained him all season long. - Correct. - The plan against Shoe Heotani has worked with the exception of one giant three run home run in his very first at bat. - Get Gavin Lux out. - What's the plan for Gavin Lux? You know what I mean? That's the plan you need to be worried about. - They have attacked him really well Chris and that plan has been a good one. - Yeah, I disagree with anybody who says walk him more. All of his hits have been when two runners are on base. He's three for three. The three at bats he's come up with two runners on base. - Two of his hits are shattered bat, you know, floaters in the center field too. - Yeah, you can't walk him, no circumstances. And so on the time zone, I think people are saying walk him. Don't forget, if you walk him and second base is empty, he's gonna be on second and he might even take third. So I don't think you can walk him and I don't think there's been a situation to necessarily pitch around him because, you know, the hits he's got and there's been really no place to put him. - Craig, the plan on Shoe Heotani, you agree has been the correct one from the Padres? - Well, yeah, and you know, after game one, the thing that I walked away from that game saying was in a situation where he can beat you, if it's your starting pitcher on the mound, given the guys who we have, I don't want them to let Shoe Heot beat him. And since that game, game one, Shoe He didn't come up in that situation again until last night, his at bat again ceased the second time around, and of course we faced him and he got a hit, and he got a hit, and he got to run bad at end. So you just don't want to let the field be set up for him to eat, and that's why stopping the 789 of the Dodgers, and really the 6789 of the Dodgers is the single most important thing for the Padres staff. - Yeah, they've done a great job against him, and I think that it goes with Mike Schulz, mantra of like not backing down, not being afraid. However, the big, making sure that they don't allow the runners ahead of, or the bottom of the order to get on base, and so they've done a good job of kind of containing both of those. But yeah, I mean, look, they've contained Shoe Heot for sure. - It's our Padres round table, brought to you by round table pizza. It is pizza royalty. We'll get back to Padres Dodgers in just a second. I wanted to mention the rest of the playoffs quickly, and throw the question out in the American League. Which team do you feel the Guardians or the Yankees, or the Guardians of the Royals has a better chance of rallying back from a 2-1 deficit? Do you see either of that happening, and how do you envision those series playing out, Chris, based on what you see in the first three games? - I don't envision either rallying. The Guardians haven't scored for two games, and I think the Tigers might still have a few innings of scuba left for game five if they need it. So definitely don't see the Royals coming back. I like how it's setting up. I know we're all really down and out, and we should be today. It was a horrible party last night. It was one of the worst I've been to in a while. But if the Padres are catered by Spiro-- - No, there's anything else that I can find. - I don't think so. No, we're round table. But yeah, I think if the Padres can advance, I think we're gonna have a good chance at a World Series rematch against either the Tigers or Yankees. I think both will advance. - Greg, how do you see the American League playing out? - Just the exact same way that Chris said it, except I think the Yankees have just a garden path to the World Series. I truly do. I think the Yankees are gonna be in the World Series. It's almost like-- - It does feel like the Tigers are on borrowed time every series, but I can't deny it. They're in a great spot. Now they got a home game and a school game, and they only have to win one of them. Now to beat what I think is a Superior Guardians team in almost every way, other than Ace Pitcher, but they just haven't been able to get it done in this series woods. And if I'm a Cleveland fan, I'm really frustrated here because the path was there for your team to make a run this year, and you haven't been able to do it against a team you should have been favored to be. - Yeah, and you kinda pencil in two losses to scuba, right? We lose two games. We gotta win these other three. You gotta figure out a way to win those. - They had a chance to win the first one. - They did. - They kept it close with good pitching. - They did, and yeah, Boyd was fantastic in that game. And as far as the Yankees, Royals goes, Royals, I would not say they're down and out yet. They hit Cole really well the other day, and they got Cole today. It's not been the same type of big game guy. Aaron Judge has disappeared. I mean, again, we were talking about superstars in the playoffs. It's like, how in the world? How in the world does this happen? But it's just, it's a different animal. Yeah, everybody's wired for it. - Annie, I do think the Royals have the better chance of coming back. I mean, if it weren't for Giancarlo Stanton, yeah, you know, this might be a very Royals centric series at this point. He's kind of stepped up in, you know, in Judge not getting things done and got these Yankees to the brink of the ALCS. - Yeah, I think what the Yankees it's hard because you know at any time they can ignite and then they can be very dangerous, or at least dangerous enough to forge that path into the World Series. I would love to see the Royals. I would love to see the Tigers. Heck, I would even love to see, you know, I mean, any of those guys make it, you know, in terms of going the distance. If the Tigers did it and they did it so unconventionally, I mean, it would, it would turn baseball upside down. - Yep. Meanwhile in the nationally, we already know the other team in the NLCS. It is the New York Mets. So not knowing whether it's going to be the Padres or the Dodgers. How do you analyze the Mets and their chances, Chris, of now, you know, making an improbable World Series run based on what you've seen and then taking out the Phillies in four games. The recent history tells us they're a lock to make the World Series. - 'Cause they would be the Brewers? - No, they would be the third consecutive number six seed to make the World Series out of the national league. That's unheard of. - And they beat the Brewers. - So what was the stat? Every team that's ever eliminated the Brewers in the playoffs. - They go to the World Series. - That's another one. It's like having Chris Martin on your team. It guarantees you to go to the World Series. - Yeah. - Why is it like a word? - That is a remarkable stat. But I put more stock in the number six seed, you know, gaining momentum. With the Mets beating the Phillies yesterday and we can only hope this continues for one more day, national league division champions are 0 and 8 in playoff series the last three years. Not a single one has won a single series. The Padres need to keep it that way. Now, having said that, I saw the Mets coming and I think we all did a little bit in the last few weeks of the season. They have had a bit of a magic about them similar to what I've seen from the Padres all season long. And they have a one guy show in Francisco Lindor that is he's absolutely uncanny at the moment, right? Hit the home run to get them into the playoffs against Atlanta in the double header with the in the ninth inning grand slam yesterday. He's been doing it all year, but I'm not concerned about the Mets because I don't, I'm not scared of any of their starting pitchers. And the Padres have shown the ability to jump on these guys early. And I think that that would be the way that series might play out. - And he as good as Lindor is, you know, you kind of expect him to get some. It's just like you do with Otani, you're not going to contain him completely. I think it's Pete Alonso all of a sudden coming up with, finally after not a good season with huge hits, the three run home run and the ninth inning to win the wild card. He got him started with the home run in game three. I think it was and that win as well. I mean, that's huge that Lindor is actually getting some support from Alonso now. - Right. And Alonso has found a playoff pumpkin that he carries with him. So maybe that's adding to it. But no, I mean, look for him to get hot at this time, which who saw that coming really necessarily for sure is helping out this team and giving them also a little bit of extra mojo. And it's very similar, I think, to the Padres. And listen, with the Phillies losing, if the Dodgers lost, we're about to get inundated with articles and talk about changing the playoff structure and what's going on and everything. But if the Padres can advance and face the Mets, I agree, it's like the magical series. It's the magical matchup. I don't know how the Mets are doing it. You know, the Phillies get cold in the postseason. We saw that last year also with the Diamondbacks and the Mets have been able to ride this wave, but it's not like their pitching is, they have good pitching. But look, I mean, Edwin Diaz, every time he gets out there to close out a game, you're holding your breath, right? Aren't these going to be able to do it? So I think it's going to be a really darn good matchup if the two teams face each other. - The pumpkin, Grimace, two a girl. - And by the way, Lindor hitting that huge grand slam and just dropping his bat and running around. Cold as ice, like I love guys showing. I don't mind at all. I think it's fun when they pump their fists and then go to the clubhouse and have a good time. But that was an old school trot around the base. - I'm not mad about Lindor going old school. What drives me crazy is the 19 old school analysts to- - Oh, they do. - I wish everyone would do it the way. - I don't believe that. - He doesn't celebrate at all. - Oh, Audrey, keep doing what you're doing. - Would that happen? - Chipper Jones yesterday was like, oh my God, he didn't even flip his bat. This is the greatest. - No, I'm not saying that. I like what the potters do. - I think the Mets though also, you know, you don't, the guys who are really key to them, you don't hear as much about David Peterson. And what he has done, you know, flexibility out of, you know, pitching. - Starting closely. - You can come in late. He has been one of the most valuable players in the post season with what he's done. I don't think a ton of people even talk about David Peterson. I agree. Edwin Diaz shouldn't see her at the pot raise at all if they face him. They've had success against Edwin Diaz. But David Peterson kind of scares me if the pot raise do end up playing the Mets. - Yeah, there's, I mean, there's a bunch of guys. They're a good team. I said it this morning, I don't think it's even fair to categorize them as devil magic right now, the way that they're playing. They're just playing good, solid, fundamental baseball at the absolutely most brilliant time of year to do so. It's not like they don't have stars. It's not like they're not the number one payroll in baseball. They are. I think the Dodgers are close second. But it's, yeah. I mean, they're getting hot at the right time. We talk about it every year. - The Renaissance of Sean Manaya. - Yeah. - Oh my gosh. - That's where I wanted to go. - I'm gonna hit the head then. - There's, okay, bye. When you gotta go, you gotta go. - There's a misconception as to- - I'd like to go. - Can we all leave? - We'll be back. - Oh, and leave Craig sitting up here. - Let me tell you about Sean Manaya for a couple of minutes. - Believe me. - We could not do a commercial free bed and wood show. He can't make it an hour usually. I'm surprised he always does everything around him. - Yeah, it's like the first step. Regardless, Quintana Manaya, Peterson, these are lefties that have me thinking. And all the way through on the other side of the bracket. Annie and I even talked about it on the show a little bit yesterday. It's like, what do you want? Because obviously you want home-field advantage. You want to be the higher seed. All of those things are obvious. The Phillies are a tough team. Like you don't want to face Bryce Harper and Aaron Nolan, Zach Wheeler, et cetera, et cetera. But the Phillies haven't played well for two and a half months. The Mets have played well for four straight months. It was beginning of June. Since then, they've had the best record in baseball. - Yeah, I wanted home-field advantage, but I wanted the Mets to be forced to a game five and be a little tired from cross-country travel. Now, I don't know what their plan is, but I would imagine flat Orange County and then wait and go either south or north depending on who wins the game as opposed to waiting until late Friday night to take a red eye and come early. I'd get out here as soon as possible if I was the Mets. - They were sneaky loose team too. When they were in San Diego, they're very loose. They have their, oh my God, song. They have their agreement. - Another bit. - Yeah, but they're just a fun kind of, you know, kind of another edgy team, just kind of like the Padres where they have fun, they play. So it's gonna be the matchup of the two face each other. - They can all come out here and stay at Jeff McNeil's place. Didn't he go to Long Beach State? - He did go to Long Beach State. - And remember, he has been working out in Arizona and a word, he hasn't played for a while, right? - Risk injury out. - They thought it was a season ender 'cause they're thinking he could be back. - They're thinking he could be back. - Right, right. - And he could be back for the championship series, so. - All right, seventh inning stretch time. Now that Woods is his return. - Thank you, sorry about that. - I think it's a great Woods question, actually. So I think we all feel the stress of watching playoff games as fans. I know most Padres fans, you're gonna experience it more than once tomorrow night. We're only human. So what is your favorite stress relieving activity? - During a game-- - Anytime, just anytime. - What do you find that best relieves your stress, Chris? - I'm gonna go with, and my wife loves this, I'm gonna go with cleaning the house. - Cleaning the house. - It's a good one. - Yeah, just walking around his energy, just getting around. - Or nervous energy. - Exactly, nervous energy, washing the dishes, cleaning up, straightening up. Before the advent of the DVR, when I used to watch games live, and the NBA, especially with all the lengthy timeouts, the house used to be spickin' span by the end of a big game. So I'll go with that. - Woods, have you broken into your playoff pack yet? - I have not, not yet. - Not yet. - Woods, if you don't know about a pack of marbles. - Pack of marbles before the playoffs. - No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. - The playoff pack, which I'll stress. - What are you on the stand house now? - There in my side drawer. - There in my side drawer. I'm comforted knowing that they're there. For me, what it is, is music, and what I'll do is I'll just go on a deep dive into Spotify, and I'll start discovering new bands that I'll then research and connect, and it's just this big, long process. And usually, Friday nights were always my night. Long week, talking about the team, you watch the Friday night game, and then I would get very musical until about midnight, one in the morning, every Friday. But I find myself now, after the games, delving into a lot of music. So, try to learn some new stuff. - Annie, what's your stress relief technique? - I like to break things. - Break things, break stuff. - Yeah, break things up. - Have you ever been to a race, yeah. - What do you, Walker Bueller? - It's like a run-out and break things. I have a little room where I just, no, I'm just kidding. No, I like to go for a walker or one, or something like that. Usually, I got to get out of the house and do something. Take the nervous energy out of my body, exactly. - Snacking is a big one, too. - Yeah, I was gonna say stress eating. - Fuck, that's definitely so dangerous, so dangerous. In fact, yesterday, bless him. Bobby Cressy came by our seats, and he dropped off some of the pizza that was in the press box. And here's my answer, is pacing. Like, I've been watching these games mostly at bottle rocket, and I'm basically a loose radical in the back room, just like floating around, like the ball on pong without any flipper, just bing, bong, bing, bong bouncing off the walls. And then, when we've got three runners on, walking outside, kind of pacing on the sidewalk, just like the movement. So, yesterday, being in my seat, I'm like, trapped, nowhere to go, nowhere to pace, that pizza started coming up. - Wasn't that quick? - We were at the game the other night, and it was six to one, and you're like, this is the best. And then the grand slam happens at six to five, and my buddy was in a row in front of me. He goes, every time I look back, you had your head between your legs, and you were chewing on a bottle cap. Every time, so there'd be people standing, they're in there trying to get out, and I'm like this, I'm looking at the ground going, I paid this much money to sit in, and we were right in the middle of the row, so we couldn't do anything. So, I was just in the chamber the whole time. - Well, if I'm trying to be a little healthier and not stress eat, not during a game, I'll do a crossword puzzle, and just kind of focus on that. - That's good. - Now, if I'm watching a game by myself, and I've never admitted this to anyone, when I get nervous or stressed, I kind of flat my arm. (laughing) - You do it, I've seen it, I do it. - I flat my arms like that, it's the way, it feels like it releases, that nerve is actually out, and it looks really, really dorky when I do it, so I try not to do it in front of people, but as you both seem, I can't always stop it, because it just has to get out physically, somewhere, just get that stressed. - I feel it, that's me walking around. - You gotta let us down, you gotta let us down. - This time my wife gets on me for biting my nails, I'm gonna say, "Honey, I could be laughing." - Or me monocops, yeah, I do. - All right, we got about 10 minutes left here in the round table. Let's look specifically ahead to tomorrow. First of all, if you were Mike Schilt, what would be, if you're even inclined, to be the good old fashioned, shake things up slash panic move before game five, the change that you would make ahead. - Are you shaking things up or are you panicking? - Well, if it works, if it works. - Or they both, it's only a shake up. - If it works, it's a good shake up. If it doesn't work, it was a panic move. That's an after the fact, characterization. - My shake up would be to give Donovan Solano the start, even though David Peralta's been hot. I think Solano's better in the matchup against a bullpen day. My panic move would be to take Jerks and Profar out of the three spot and put him eighth. - I like that, one of each. - Yeah, Craig, you just took it and it's what I alluded to earlier. I think it's not even panic or shake up. It's tactical. Solano needs to be in the lineup. He needs to be hitting eighth in the lineup. Cronumworth needs to hit seventh, and that is to reduce the lane because yesterday Roberts was able to starting at five. Go, okay, I got barrels, I fade bow guards. Now I've got two left-handers, then I fade to Gashioka and I've got to rise. - So we talked about it a little bit. If you're going to continue to play Peralta, I haven't understood why. Why wouldn't Jake Bat nine just the reset and put Higashioka as the eighth and split up your lefty righties at the bottom? I mean, you know, obviously then you go lefty lefty with Cronumworth and a rise back to the top. But something I consider and something Woods and I talked about was, do you have Fernando Tetis Jr. Bat first? Like Shohei Otani Bat's first for the Dodgers, just to make sure that if it comes down to one last at bat with your season on the line in game five and you've got the 891 hitters coming up in the ninth inning. You want to make sure that you have every chance to get Fernando up as much as possible in that last game. I don't know if that's a shake up or a panic move Woods, but I mean, look, if I was running the Dodgers, it would look different. I wouldn't, I don't know that I'd have Shohei in the one, but it's worked for them tremendously and it certainly works for him. But their best hitter is one. Our best hitter can be one as well. - I feel like it works for them from an opponent standpoint. I get nervous when the 789 hitters start coming up because I know Shohei's at one. - Right, and you can do the same. - I mean, what if that works the other way as well? If you know, Tetis-- - What if you had a rise in the eight? - Doesn't that make the 789 hitters all a little bit tougher to face, like a little bit more pressure knowing-- - The Tetis coming up. - Instead of a rise coming up at one going, yeah, well, if I put two on, the worst is gonna happen, he's gonna get a single-- - And he may hit no double play. - Yeah, and he may hit into a double play, but if Tetis is coming up, it stresses, I think the pitcher more at the bottom of the line up. - This is a late jump straight up. - Stratimatically, I think you are right onto something here. Like, I'm trying to put it together in my mind. So now we're gonna move everyone up one, and we're gonna plop, wheeze down at the nine, and jeez, he's not hitting, so it makes sense. That would be a panic move. I almost guarantee you that Tetis would be chasing three sliders in his first at bat, and so no, I'm back to exalt the team, accept the result. This is our team. - I like it. I like that. Exalt the team, accept the result. - Shake up slash panic move for Annie. - Yeah, I think I would just be willing to be unconventional with my pitching if I needed to be. You know what I mean? And I don't exactly even know what that means, but if you, it's a game five, it's a do or die, you could reset things, I mean, you have the day. You don't have a game the exact day the next day, so I would be willing to be unconventional with my pitching a little bit. - Tanner Scott in the first inning. - That's how you get it. - Opener, opener, and how about Billy Martin move? Put everybody's name in a hat, draw it out that way. - Get ejected from the first inning in my shell down there, kick a little dirt on the umpire, see where that gets you. - All right, last question here, if we can spend the last five or six minutes bouncing it around. Obviously someone is gonna step up on one or both teams in game five, and you know, their name will be written in playoff lore. Who is your pick to click in game five of the National League Division series and why? You can obviously choose anyone from any team. I'm expecting a lot of Padres picks from this panel. No one's gonna be mad. - I really hope Tae Oscar goes off in game five. - Oh my god, right? - This is showing, guys. - My pick to click is tummy at me, no. - Image, come up. - So I'm thinking more Padres selections here, Annie. - I'm gonna go with Fernando Tuttis Jr. You know, he's an easy pick. Obviously, because of what he's been doing this post season, he's just been absolutely electric. And then he does well in Dodger Stadium. This is gonna be an environment where coming off of all the drama that they played with on Sunday and the fans there, what's it gonna be like for them? And I think that he's gonna go out there and as best as he can, you know, make sure that they realize that he's not backing down. So I'm gonna go with him. - Woods, I know if you're picking with your heart, I know who you want to be the guy who sticks it to the Dodgers tomorrow. - You percent? - I may surprise you. - I want Jerkson profile to bring me their heads. That's what I want. - That's what I want this week. - Yeah, man, I want Jerkson who's not playing. Well, Manny's not either, but I want Jerkson to bring me their hearts on a plate. That's what I want. And I think if one thing, they'll be pissed if it's Manny. They'll be real pissed if it's Jerkson. There's so many sweet possibilities here. - That's right. Is this a draft? - No, but you can pick someone else. - Because I was going to pick Profar along the lines of he has been Mr. Relevant all year and he's not been relevant to this series outside of the catch. And like, this would be that time. Like he's come through in every big, big, big moment. But seeing as the other two, I'm gonna just say Manny. I mean, it's Manny because it's Manny. - With the storylines of the series, you know, after the ball gate and everything to, if Manny were to come and stick it to the Dodgers. - It would be amazing. - In Game Five and that in Dodgers stadium. With that fan base that really has an, like an irrational loathing of him. - Did you hear Kershaw last night? - Yeah. - They interviewed Clayton Kershaw off to the game and they said, what do you expect in Game Five from your fan base? He goes, I hope we don't have any, you know, distractions and delays. He said, how do you think Manny's gonna be received? And he goes, like he always is. He's gonna get booed and he's probably gonna like it. It was really good. It was a really, it was a good answer by Clayton. - Over, under, on whether he tosses a ball. - Oh, lightly, very, very, very, very, like absurdly, and he's gonna do it 'cause he wants to. He's gonna be absurdly lightly. Maybe like the like gentlest of underhand tosses if he ever has to do it. - I think you gotta try to get back under their skin a little bit. It clearly works for you and it clearly bothers them. But I think we definitely have a couple guys who can do it. - Chris picked a click. You got someone new for us. - First of all, I think we've, we have certainly duly reacted to an eight nothing loss the way you would expect. But personally, and I don't, I think this goes for everyone, but I personally, I have the utmost confidence the Padres are gonna go up their win this game. I still think they're the better team. And I know it didn't look like it last night, but I'm gonna lean on the fact that this is our time. And I do believe the Padres are gonna win this game tomorrow night. - I like it. - Having said that, my pick to click is using a little what Craig's Dodger strategy against them. And if they go left-hander for five, six, seven, eight, the way the Padres lineup is constructed, the one right who gets a swing there is Xander Bogart's. - Love it. I'll take him. - All right, I like the analytics behind that one. I'm gonna, I thought this over 'cause I wanted to pick someone different from everybody else. No one's picked a pitcher. I mean, you Darvish is an obvious selection. - For sure. - As a pick to click. But I tend to think that someone's gonna have a big swing. I thought, boy, it would be poetic. If Jake Cronoworth, I thought last night would be the real poetic night for Jake Cronoworth to come through. We never really had the opportunity. It would still be pretty poetic in game five, but who has been the catalyst? Ultimately, when the Padres have needed a lift and a burst of energy all season long with his youthful exuberance, his unbelievable confidence and what he's done with this team. I think Jackson Merrill will be my pick to click. - Let's go. - In game five of the National League Division series, he's already started writing his legend. Why not start writing the postseason legend? I mean, had a home run earlier in this series at Dodger Stadium. Why not do it again? He seems to thrive under the most pressure pack of circumstances and this is gonna be the most pressure pack. Circumstance he's faced so far in his big league career. I'll take Jackson Merrill. - You know what's cool is when you started, when you said that, the guy that has carried this team and has sparked us so many times. My mind went rise to tease, my child. Like every single dude on this team has done a higgy. They've all done it. It could have been one through nine of this team that you listed. Man, it's crazy. - All right, well, if we are back here next Thursday for another round table, that will be a very good sign. It would probably come before game four of the National League Championship series in New York against the Mets. We could be three-oh, we could be two-one. I hope that we talk to you again next Thursday. Obviously, all of our regular shows will be continuing until then, including Annie and Elston coming up live next year on 97-3, the fan. And don't forget, tomorrow, tune in. 308, I believe, is the Ecowater SoCal Pregame Show. Is it a 408 pregame show? 408 pregame show, 508 pregame show, 508 pregame show. - 508. - Oh, okay. I thought it was 408. - Let's see if it goes 509. - 508 first pitch. - In the Fox TV way to put it, Ben, it is currently 32 hours before Shoe Heyotani bats next. - We're talking Greenwich Mean Time here. All right, well, just check local listings. Thank you for joining us all season long. Thank you to round table pizza. It's pizza royalty for bringing us these commercial free every single week for Annie, for Woodsy, for Craig, for Chris. I'm Ben, and have a great rest of your Thursday from all of us here at 97-3, the fan. So long, everybody, and go! Pod race, come on. Up the dads. (upbeat music) - My dad works in B2B marketing. He came by my school for career day and said he was a big row as man. Then he told everyone how much he loved calculating his return on ad spend. My friends still laughing me to this day. - Not everyone gets B2B, but with LinkedIn, you'll be able to reach people who do. Get $100 credit on your next ad campaign. Go to linkedin.com/results to claim your credit. That's linkedin.com/results. Terms and conditions apply. LinkedIn, the place to be, to be.