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Ian Cameron's Football Frenzy - NFL Week 6
(upbeat music) - Welcome to Ian Cameron's football frenzy, the NFL week six preview edition of the show, Ian Cameron and Philip Nelson back with us to break down the NFL once again here for week six. Week five was a very entertaining week. It was the best week of the season for me betting wise. Now, best bets unfortunately, 0 and 2 last week on the show, but that's the frustrating part. Like it felt like it was a great week. We had a lot of great results last week on the card and it was my best week personally from a betting standpoint of the season. And that's why it's always important on this show. Really take heed and listen to the advice and analysis of every game because I find long-term you will have more good calls than bad when it comes to this show and specifically the NFL card on a weekly basis. But Philip, I know you're traveling, where are you coming from today? - Baltimore, Baltimore, I'm not sure if you can really see this here, but right behind me over here, I've got the home that, I can't really see it through the window, but I got MNC Bank in here over there. I got MNC Bank and I have the Orioles Park, so I'm in Baltimore. I had to check out my fantasy quarterback, make sure all is good over here with Lamar, so. - Yeah, everything's good with Lamar. Everything's not so good with that defense. - No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no. - Mar's fine. I mean, there's other issues right now. (laughing) - My goodness team, my goodness last week, although they win, a win's a win, but my goodness. They were getting away with one. They could not really stop. Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals last week, but wins a win and they were able to survive and do enough offensively there in that one. And that was a game where I was on the over and couldn't have been easier to be able to cash that one. This is an interesting card. This week, we have another London England game this week, so let's get right into it. We'll begin with Thursday Night Football and a very interesting game in the NFC West. Desperation already with two teams that need some wins here. The San Francisco 49ers taking on the Seattle Seahawks. We've got the 49ers. Three and a half point road favorites in this game and the total sitting at around 49, pretty much across the board. We saw San Francisco being under 500, two and three at this stage of the season, yet here we are. Yes, there've been some injuries. We've talked about how San Francisco has had a lot of key personnel missing in the early part of the season, but they've started to get a little bit healthier the last few weeks. So you can't use that as a complete and utter excuse. I think if you're San Francisco, your issues are red zone offense and it came to the forefront last week and they're lost to the Arizona Cardinals. They move the football all day against Arizona, but too many times Brock Purdy and the 49ers offense settled in the red zone for field goals. They've had some inconsistent play. I think it's been disappointing that what we've seen from Brandon Ayuk, although finally he had a better game against Arizona, but Debo Samuel didn't have a great game the other night. The team just bogged down offensively in the red zone and then the bigger issue's been the defense for San Francisco. They have been ripped apart. They've been giving up big points. We saw Minnesota, that team struggle on the offense, the defensive side of the football. Where's the pass rush? Where's the ability to stop the run? How the hell can you allow? You know, there's just so many issues right now with San Francisco defensively. You look at last week, there's James Conner ripping them up for 86 yards on the ground. Kyle or Murray from the quarterback position adds 83 yards on the ground. That's not run defense that we're used to from the San Francisco 49ers. The pass rush, I mean, it was very limited in that game as well. Nothing from Nick Bosa. The only sack was Leonard Floyd against Arizona. So it's a defense that's got some holes in it right now. And this is really carryover from last year in the playoffs, you know, where we saw in the Green Bay game, they struggled, although they won that playoff game, the Detroit game, you know, it was really their offense that pulled them through. And then in Kansas City game on the line in the Super Bowl couldn't get a stop when they needed it. So this is a Niners defense that's shown now for really several weeks that they've got some issues. This is not a defense that it's cracked up to be. 23 allowed to Minnesota, 27 of the Rams and that stunning loss where they collapsed in the fourth quarter, 24 in the lost Arizona last week. The really good defensive game they had this year, the one was the New England Patriots 30 to 13. And that's not saying a whole lot, considering the state of the Patriots offense right now. So the bottom line is after all that, am I ready to lay three and a half on the road with San Francisco? Absolutely not going into this game in a big division game. One thing I will say though in San Francisco's favor, I guess you could say in this game is they've utterly owned Seattle. They've won five straight. They've covered four of those five games. And even the game that they didn't, they still won by 12. You know, this has been a one-sided series, which makes me hesitant to back Seattle here, but what also makes me hesitant to back Seattle, their own defense. And we talked about this, we saw this coming a couple of weeks ago, and I don't feel up agreed with me on this point. For you know to start the year, defensive numbers, whether it was yards per play allowed, rush yards, pass yards allowed, all those key defensive stats, they look great after the first three games. But then you look at the schedule and then, of course they're going to look great. It was Bonix on the road in this first NFL start. It was Jacobi Percet from New England. It was the combination of Tim Boyle and Skyler Thompson at quarterback for Miami for an injured Tua. That was the quarterbacks and the offenses they played in those first three games. So then they played some halfway decent, well a great offense in Detroit. They don't get a single stop that old game. They give up 42. They give up 29 to Daniel Jones and the Giants in a 29-20 loss last week. And look, they were moving the ball up and down the whole game. Daniel Jones was making plays in the passing game. Even the run game last week, which we thought would be a concern for the Giants considering they had no Devin Singletary last week. And there's Tyrone Tracy coming in and stepping up with 129 yards on the ground against the Seattle defense. So not good at all from that side of the ball. That being said, in a game where both teams have defensive issues, I always take the points. Or I lean to taking the points. Will I? I'm not sure. Maybe a small bet here on Seattle. I am concerned about their track record of just getting mauled by the Niners. I'm concerned about the fact that their defense might be even worse right now than the Niners own defenses. But I still lean here on a short week. It's not easy to go on the road and travel on a short week. We know that with a Niners team that's struggling. I lean Seattle. It's a lukewarm lean, small bet only. But I do think I'll get involved for a couple of shackles here tonight on Thursday night with Seattle plus 3 1/2. And I do lean over this total as well. I think that's what I prefer even more is this over. Now Thursday night games, sometimes that's where overs go to die. We've talked about this. There's usually more unders than overs on Thursday night. But it's hard for me to bend an under with these two defenses right now, and especially Seattle. And the thing with Seattle's defense fill is they're getting even more injury riddled. They're continuing to lose key bodies, defensive line, line backing core, secondaries beat up a little bit. That's concerning, obviously moving forward. What do you think here, Phillip, for Thursday night, San Francisco, Seattle? Yeah, it's a crucial game for both teams, really. Both coming off of losses here. She's the NFC West, seemed to be open at this point. We don't really know what we're seeing with Seattle or the 49ers defense at this point. But I agree with what you're saying here. I think you take the points with Seattle. Like you said, short week, they're at home. So I agree with you on this one. I think you take the points with Seattle. Man, and I think with the total, I think I'd go under here as well. I'm not really sure. I think these defenses-- I don't know. I'm relying on the fact that it's a shorter week, and I think that it's a bounce-back game for both these defenses. So that's kind of where I'm at with this one. All right, Leena and under. I like it. I like the head-to-head that sometimes we have. I get it. Short week, Thursday night games have been under Palooza for years in the NFL. It's-- I could see it. And that could be where the focus is, obviously, in the limited practice week that both of these teams have, knowing that they both got ripped apart last week, defensively, San Fran by Arizona, Seattle, by the New York Giants. So I get that part of the logic behind maybe Leena and under here tonight. It's a fascinating game, though, for sure. Coming up here tonight and a big one. Very important game early in the season here for both of these teams. All right, let's move to Sunday. And once again, we have another of the London Games series over in London, England, Jacksonville and Chicago. We've got the Chicago Bears, two-point home favorites-- or two-point favorites on the neutral field here in London, 44 and 1/2, the total in this game. Jacksonville, off the mat, and they get their first win of the season last week against Indianapolis. And it's someone that took Jacksonville in that game. God, they still made it a fucking sweat and a half right till the end. They're up by, what, 14 in the last five minutes. And they give up back-to-back big play touchdowns to Joe Flacco and the Indianapolis Colts who end up tying that game, and then they need to walk it off with a field goal at the end when they probably should have put that game away earlier than that. But they did get a win, a much-needed one. You can tell that was a fragile team, because they had the big lead. They blew it, but they found a way to win against Indianapolis last week. The offensive line has been a problem right now for this Jacksonville offense. But they finally had some good protection for him against Indy. I don't know if that's the offensive line field being better. Jacksonville or Indy just no having zero pass rush. And it's a shit ton of injuries. We'll get to that with Indy. They are beyond ravaged on defense right now with injuries. And I think we saw that last week play out to fruition with Jacksonville. They couldn't get to stop the Colts for most of that game. Jacksonville took advantage. You give them credit. But now that offensive line is going to be tested here against Chicago. Chicago's got a very solid defense. So let's see if that Jacksonville offense and Trevor Lawrence by far had their best game of the season last week in the win against Indy. It's going to be a little bit of a tougher challenge for them. But there is an idea of that this team getting that first win, getting to one in four, having a little bounce in their step, going to London, England. And one thing you can't overlook in handicapping this game, this is familiarity for Jacksonville. They play in London basically every year. In fact, they played two games in a row last year in London. They played in London the year before that. They played in London before that. There's a team that's used to making the trip here and playing games overseas across the pond. I mean, Jacksonville went 2 and 0 straight up and against the spread last year in their back-to-back games in London. And one of those wins was against the Buffalo Bills, a very good team. So be careful with this game, because you could look at it and say, this line looks pretty cheap on Chicago, who are entering in with the better record, 3 and 2, certainly the better defense. Back-to-back wins for them against the Rams and the Panthers. But you can't overestimate, underestimate, I should say the fact that Jacksonville is a ton of familiarity and a level of comfortability, I would say, playing here in London. Actually, into the Jags. If this hits three, I'll definitely be involved with Jacksonville in this game. I know Chicago has shown some life offensively the last two weeks, the Rams game. They got their offense going last week against Carolina. It's just hilarious how prior to last week and for most of the season, Phil, what have we heard about the Bears? What's wrong with their offensive line? What's wrong with Caleb Williams and his lack of consistency? What's-- no run game? Why? Why can't DeAndre Swift and the run game get going? And then all of a sudden, you play the Carolina Panthers last week, and it's like, oh, the run game gets going. Oh, the offensive line finally looks great. Oh, Caleb Williams has his best game of the season, all of a sudden. So was that a product to Chicago figuring it out offensively? Or was that a product of, yeah, you're playing one of the worst defenses in all the NFL right now? In the Carolina Panthers as to why Chicago looked. And I know we were both on the Bears last week, Phil. So I'm sure we enjoyed that result there against the Panthers. About an easy win as you can get for Chicago. But I do lean Jacksonville here. They got the win. That's going to be confidence. They're definitely comfortable in their surroundings here, maybe compared to Chicago. They know the routine through the week. I mean, don't underestimate that shit. You know, Jacksonville, they know what the week leading up to this game is like. For Chicago, a lot of their players are experiencing this for the first time. So Jacksonville, for me, at plus two, I agree with the total move up. It's just very difficult right now to bet Jacksonville under. And to me, the total of 42 was too low. I jumped in right away. I said, this total's got to go up. 42 is too low. 44 and 1/2 now. I still lean that way, though, over the total. What do you think you're Phil, Jacksonville, Chicago? Yeah, I completely agree with you. I think the big battle here is going to be the Jaguars offense versus the Chicago Bears defense. I think obviously the Bears defense has been fantastic so far this year. Jaguars, I feel like this is kind of like a home game for them. They're used to this. They know what it's like over there and everything. I completely agree with you. I think the Jaguars could potentially sneak this one out. I think, plus two, I would definitely take the Jaguars plus two here. And I think this might be in a high scoring game as well. I think there's a little bit of momentum for the Jaguars. Trevor Lawrence is kind of figuring some shit out. You know, Caleb Williams is getting better each week as well. So, you know, I agree with you. Jaguars plus two and an over here. Yeah, like I said, Jack-- and let's be honest, even though Jackson build that old line and that offense is underachieve, there's more talent on this offense than that should be better. And for Chicago's defense, I will say this too. You know, they faced some weaker offenses in some of their games this season, so we'll see how they fare here against Jacksonville. Like I said, there is definitely that factor of Jacksonville being very comfortable playing in London. They're used to this. They're probably staying in the same hotel in the same place they always do. And that's probably a big time plus for them going into this game. Doesn't guarantee they're going to win, obviously. But it's definitely something that in their back pocket, they're probably a team that feels a little more comfortable making this trip than maybe Chicago is. All right, next up, we've got Washington and Baltimore. The Raven, six and a half point home favorites. 51 and a half the total. Who would have thought early in the season that Washington, Baltimore, would be one of the big games of the week in the NFL? But here we are. It has been an unbelievable start for the commanders, the commies, as I like to say, and Jaden Daniels has been at the forefront of it. He is the leading-- he's the star attraction as to why Washington's four-in-one to start the year. A beat down to the Cleveland Browns. That's two weeks in a row. Washington has absolutely annihilated an opponent. Arizona 42-14, Cleveland 34-13. Another phenomenal game from Jaden Daniels, 238 through the year. You know what I loved about that win against Cleveland? He had that rough interception in the red zone early in the game against Cleveland last week. Didn't shake him at all. Did not deter him one fucking bit. He just bounced right back. He led the team down the field once again for a touchdown drive through that big bomb down the field to Diami Brown. And that's another thing, too. We're starting to see some of the skill position group step up. Lot's been on the plate of Terry McLaurin, but now all of a sudden Zach Urts is getting involved. And Diami Brown has a big touchdown catch. And now Austin Echler's been being a threat to run and catch the ball out of the backfield for Washington. The offensive line's gotten better and better throughout the season. The one issue I had all season with Washington was their defense. And even they are making strides on that side of the football. So shutting down Arizona, shutting down Cleveland and making to Sean Watson look very poor. Let me just put it that way in that win last week. They got pressure throughout the course of that game as well, which was good to see. Two and a half sacks for Frankie Louvoo. Bobby Wagner with one and a half sacks. Dante Fowler, Dorrance Armstrong and Jonathan Allen, each have one as well. This defense has made incredible improvement from very early in the season when they got absolutely shredded by Tampa Bay in the one loss that they had this year Washington. The question now is, you're now swimming in the deep end of the pool here. You're taking on the Baltimore Ravens. People think of them as one of the AFC contenders. And certainly they are. But I'll say this, Phil, and I think you agree, they definitely have an AFC contender, Super Bowl contender offense right now with Lamar Jackson. Derek Henry has been just an incredible fit for this offense, which is definitely now run-heavy. Even Todd Monkin has finally figured out we're going to be run-heavy and they're sticking to that after he screwed that up in the AFC Championship game, tried to turn them into a pass-heavy offense, totally absurd game plan against Kansas City, which cost them, he's finally figured out we're going to be a run-heavy team and it's working. I mean, you look at Henry in the backfield and you look at Lamar's RPO threat and all of a sudden it is a very dangerous offense. Then you throw in the ability to, everyone's got to play run and it will eventually open up lanes to throw the football down the field, to Bateman, to Flowers, to others on this receiving core for Baltimore. So there's no doubt they have a Super Bowl contender offense. I'm not sure right now they have a Super Bowl contender defense though. There are some real problems for Baltimore on that side of the football. Pass rush hasn't been great. You look at the fact that the secondary has been absolutely shredded in some of these games, especially the Dallas game. And I know they had a big lead. Some of that was playing a little more conservative passive defense, prevent defense. You know what I say, prevent defense prevention from winning. That's what I always say. But Dallas, they gave up big yards through the air, Gardner, Minshoo's carving them up to come back and beat Baltimore earlier this year. Joe Burrow and the Bengals move the ball up and down. Don't forget, the Bengals led by 10. They were up 38-20. Baltimore couldn't get many stops. Cincinnati was moving the ball and then they fumbled late in the fourth quarter. You look at this as a situation where this has not been a very good defense. I mean, Burrow 392 through the air. The run defense has been okay, but certainly, but the secondaries really had trouble. And the way Jayden Daniels has shown the ability to make plays down field in the passing game, we know the run component's a big part of it. I'm not ready to lay six and a half with Baltimore. Now, here's what I would say. If you haven't been riding Washington and you haven't been betting on Washington, is this the right week to jump in as they take a step up in class? Maybe, maybe not. But in my shoes, Phil, I've been betting Washington these last few weeks. I took him against Cincinnati, Monday night football three weeks ago. I took him against Arizona a couple weeks ago. I was on them last week against Cleveland. We talked about this. I mean, the price looked cheap against Cleveland, the way Washington's playing. And they took care of business easily. So I've cashed three in a row with the commanders. Because of that, I'm not jumping off the train. They've clearly been mispriced. They've clearly been undervalued and underrated by everybody coming into the season because everyone's surprised at just how good already Jayden Daniels is. I'm going to continue to think until proven otherwise, Washington remains undervalued here. And I think they are ready to handle this step up and at least compete, which is all they need to do in this game, obviously, as a plus six and a half point underdog. Just compete, be in the game, make it a close one down the stretch and you're going to get the money. So for me, I'm back on Washington, on the Washington commanders express here, plus six and a half over pass for me in this game. I get it. It's a high total, 51 and a half. You're not going to see me betting this Washington offense under and you're not going to see me betting all the more is defense right now under the total. Phil, what do you think here? One of the big game, week six, Washington, Baltimore. Right where you are right now, the games. Yeah, right. Well, hey, I completely agree with you on this one. I think both offenses are clearly hot. Baltimore's defense is not what we thought that they were going to be. And I just could see this game being something along the lines of the Ravens jump out or something like that. But the commanders come back and keep it close, plus six and a half. And the Ravens have a tough time closing out teams, but I feel like the other side to that, though, is if they can get a lead and then dominate the run game and bleed out the clock, that's what makes me a little bit nervous here. But I do think that the commander's offense is hot right now, plus six and a half. I think that that's kind of a steal, honestly. I think they're going to keep this one close. You know, I'm taking commanders plus six and a half. I think the Ravens are going to win and definitely an over here, for sure, for me. This should be a good one. This is the game probably is certainly the early games I'm looking forward to the most. There's no question. It should be interesting to see how it goes. Now, the Ravens have been better against the run. So I'm interested to see that if Jayden Daniels is forced to throw the ball more, especially on the road, can he get the job done? Because a big part of the success of Washington is they've been able to run the football pretty well most of the year. Brian Robinson, Austin Echler. They've been good in the run game. If Baltimore takes that away, can this be the Jayden Daniels show solely through the air with his arm? I don't know, he's looked pretty good. Boy, and some of these guys out here are saying, geez, commanders win this game, and Jayden Daniels plays well. Is he playing himself into the MVP conversation? You know what I mean? Like, I don't know, man, he's already rookie of the year. Slammed up to have your favorite. You know what I mean? He's really, he's crushing it. And I just, I think that I think he's going to be able to throw and good point on the running game, too. But I do think that Baltimore has a tough time closing out teams. And I think that Washington's going to keep his close. So I could see plus six and a half for sure. That's right. And like I said, I think because the one thing is the Baltimore defense has struggled, but definitely way more struggles in that secondary against the pass, as opposed to against the run. So it's going to be interesting to see if Jayden can have that magic. And you're right about the MVP odds. The MVP odds have crashed on Jayden Daniels. He's right up there now. And of course, he's barring a catastrophe. He's going to win rookie of the year, too, in the NFL. There's no question about that. At least certainly he's the slam dunk winner of that award through the first month. All right, Arizona and Green Bay. We've got the Packers five point home favorites at Lambeau 47 and a half, the total here in this game. Arizona, what a performance last week. And I kind of thought that they could hang around. I ended up on Arizona plus seven and a half last week. But then I think they would win the game outright. Not so much. But what a job by them. Now they did take advantage to have some kicker issues with Jake Moody. San Francisco basically couldn't kick field goals down the stretch. But at the same time, their offense was on a roll. Kyler Murray was outstanding. The offense just moved the football throughout that game against San Francisco. We'll see if they can have some success here. Now here's the thing with Arizona. They're now two and three, that's their second win of the year. Do they have the maturity here? After a big win like that, you've got to go on the road for an early start game to the Midwest, second straight road game, and play well. Or do you have that little bit of a hangover after such a huge divisional win as you take on Green Bay? Make sure before you bet anything with the total, especially the over, you check the weather. Because it looks like it could be a little bit nasty in Green Bay, Wisconsin for this game on Sunday. They're calling for rain. Maybe things have to be wind as well. So that's also why this total, I think, has been bet down. It opened 49 and 1/2. It's all the way down to 47 and 1/2 right now because of some wind conditions and wind issues. These are two capable ground attacks, though, obviously. When you talk about Arizona, they've had a good season from James Connor. When you talk about Green Bay, Josh Jacobs, certainly capable with a little dose of Emmanuel Wilson as well to run the football for this Green Bay team. So that was a great win for Arizona last week. Meanwhile, the Packers, look, I know the Rams are banged up. They've had their issues. But I give Jordan love credit for this. That pick six was as bad as it gets. You won't see a worse decision. You won't see a worse throw. Combination throw and decision. What the hell were you fucking thinking, man? Just in the end, I know you wanted to avoid the safety, but for crying out loud, take the fucking safety spot. You just can't just chuck the ball to not see where you're going. And just an easy pick six for the Rams. But to his credit, from that point on, he was terrific. And he bounced back. He got punched in the mouth with that horrible play. And he bounced back and he played great the rest of the way. And so did the Green Bay offense for most of that game. Like I said, Jacobs and Wilson running the ball. I think Tucker Kraft has clearly become the starting tight end for this team. Musgrave, he can't count on him. He's never healthy. And Tucker Kraft has been more than good. The tough physical after the catch running that we've seen from him as well, including on that great touchdown reception he had. Jaden Reed had a nice game as well. We're still waiting on Dontavian Wicks to get going. Because he's had the drop sees here early in the season for Green Bay. You get him going. And all of a sudden, this is a very good receiving core that Jordan Love has to work with with Green Bay. Offensive line played well. Defense is still a work in progress. But I'm telling you what, when Jair Alexander gets healthy in the secondary and that D line is starting to get better and better, they're getting better against the run. They're getting better with their pass rush as well. You know, Green Bay's got the makings up. And I figured early in the season, the defense would struggle. They have. But that defense is getting better. And by late October into November, December, we could be talking about a pretty damn good Green Bay defense if they keep this trajectory going. So I think it's a tough spot for Arizona. I just do just handicapping 101 is, I don't know if this Arizona team's built and wired to have a win like they had last week come from behind. Division rivals San Francisco. Huge win in the division to now go on the road for a second straight week, ramp it up all over again and take on Green Bay and elements weather wise that could be pretty nasty here for this game. So I'm leaning Packers here at minus five in this one. I think they probably have the chance to get it done here at home. What do you think here Phil Arizona Green Bay? I agree. I think Packers minus five here. Like you said before, monitor the weather. Both these teams want to run the ball anyway. If you have some nasty weather, I think 47 and 1/2 is high here. But I think the Packers have a tough time closing out teams too, clearly. I feel like last week, they let the Rams back in the game and everything like that. So I think this is going to be a rush heavy game. Obviously, the return of Trey McBride was huge for the Cardinals last week. We saw that. But yeah, I think monitor the weather here. This is a little bit of a scary one, but I'm pretty confident in it under here. I think the Packers defense is playing well, like you said. And I think these teams want to run the ball. And given the weather as well, I think an under here in Packers minus five. Yeah, it should be like I said, it's a difficult tricky spot, in my opinion, for the Arizona Cardinals. This is usually the point spread range I like to take Arizona. In this spot, I'm a little bit concerned. After the win last week, now going into the middle Midwest here to take on Green Bay, early start as well. Like I said, minus seven, I wouldn't be interested. Minus five with Green Bay, I think there's a chance they could win by upwards of a touchdown here. All right, Houston and New England. The Drake May era begins for New England. Houston's seven point road favorites, 38 the total. This is to me coaching sacrilege here by the Gerard Mayo. Why the hell are you? The timing of the-- it's not that you're choosing to start Drake May, because I think we've seen enough of Jacoby Percet to know. I think it's just about time maybe to see Drake May. It's the timing of it. That's what I've got an issue with. Why on earth did we not see him last week? At home against Miami, a beaten down Miami team, a struggling Miami team, down to what? Their third or fourth quarterback on the depth chart. Why was that not the game to bring Drake May in, to make his Patriots debut? Why are you choosing a much better, much tougher, a much stronger Houston Texans team? I don't get it. I just don't understand that it should have been last week, as far as I'm concerned. But they've made the move to Drake May. It's not the easiest matchup. Houston's got a pretty solid defense, and they showed it in the second at the end of that game against Buffalo. There were opportunities for Buffalo who came back in the second half to take that game. But that Houston defense rose up, got some key stops. And it's not an easy assignment for Drake May in his first ever NFL start. Now, what he does offer that Jacoby Percet does and is a little more mobility. And certainly, I think, definitely a stronger arm. But is that going to show up in the very first game of the year against a very good Houston Texans team? That remains to be seen. Houston, though, you look at them. And I know they got the win against Buffalo on the walk-off, Keime Fair Baron field goal. He drilled it from over 50 yards. Great kick. And he's had a great season. But they have not played four great quarters of football in any of their games this year. They've been an inconsistent. They have not played a complete game yet. And now, I know their record is still three and one on the-- or four and one on the season. So there's nothing to really panic about. But the Colts game, they escaped 29-27. They had a terrible second half against Chicago, the Sunday night game. Hung on 1913. Offense didn't work. 34-17 lost to Minnesota. 24-20 win against Jacksonville, where they were down. They could have lost that game to the winless Jags. And they needed a CJ Stroud touchdown drive at the end to win. Great first half against Buffalo last week. But not a good second half. Buffalo comes all the way back. Almost takes the game from them. Houston has to hang on and get the game winning field goal at the end. So they haven't played four great quarters. I don't care how good you are on paper. If you're not playing four great quarters, I'm not laying seven with you on the road. And that's how I feel here about Houston in this game. I want nothing to do with the side. I don't like the New England side either. And the thing too about New England is their defense, which is supposed to carry them. They've had some cracks in the armor. This New England defense hasn't been as good as I thought. And they need it to be, because the offense is so compromised. And the offense is so challenged with this O line, which is horrible, with the lack of weapons and the lack of speed at receiver. This defense has to carry them. And they haven't done a good enough job of that. There's been some holes. There's been some games where New England's given up big plays and points on that side of the football. So this is a pass from me from a side perspective. Clear pass about the easiest pass, I think, on the board. I can't lay seven with Houston, but I'm not interested in New England either against this team with the rookie quarterback making his first-start Drake mate. I'd lean under again until proven otherwise with a New England game. And let's be honest, it's not like the Texans offense has been lighting it up for four quarters in every game. And they just lost Nico Collins to injury, which is a huge deal. It puts more pressure on Diggs, Dell, the other receivers. And Nico Collins by far has been CJ Stroud's number one target, his favorite receiver, his big play threat. And now without him, it certainly weakens the Texans offense moving forward. What do you think here, Phil Houston, New England? Yeah, I agree with you. There's a few factors on this one that really got to me. A, this Patriots offensive line is poor shit. The Texans' D line is fierce. They rush-- they get after the passer. I watched Drake made pretty closely in the preseason. There's a learning curve with him. He's going to come out there, and he's going to see some starting defense and live bullets that he's never seen before. The only thing I feel pretty confident about here is the under, like you said. I don't love the minus seven or plus seven either. I'm not confident in any of that. I think the Texans pull out the game, but I think an under here. And I don't think the Patriots really move the ball that much. And I really don't think the Texans will either. I think, like you said, the Patriots' defense is kind of supposed to be carrying this team, but yeah, cracks in the armor. Great way to put it. Nico Collins is out. I think an under here is a good bet. And I think the Texans pull it out, but I don't know about minus seven. Yeah, like I said, it's going to be interesting to see Houston adjusting to life without, like I said, Nico Collins with that hamstring injury that he's dealing with, because like I said, you saw it. After he left that game last week, that offense just stopped working, really. I mean, they didn't really do much in that Buffalo game after he got injured. So we'll have to wait and see how the adjustment in this Texans offense, that's another reason why I'm hesitant to lay the seven with them in that game. All right, Tampa Bay and New Orleans. We got the box three and a half point road favorites. 41, the total in this game. Derek Carr out put on the injured list, suffered the injury at the end of that Kansas City game on Monday night and didn't return. And that means the, we thought maybe they were going to go, I thought they were actually going to go to Jake Hainer, at quarterback, the kid out of Fresno, who I think showed actually was pretty, it was actually pretty solid in the preseason. I'm a little surprised Dennis Allen is going to Spencer Rattler at quarterback for this game, of course, former Oklahoma sooner, former South Carolina Gamecock, of course, in college. And now here he is starting for New Orleans, his first ever NFL start. I'm a little surprised, I'll be honest. I thought for sure it was going to be Hainer. I'm not betting on New Orleans with Spencer Rattler in his first start, I'm not doing that. And you factor in the Tampa, a little pissed off coming out of the loss they had in overtime against Atlanta on the Thursday night last week. I think they feel they probably should have won that game and closed it out. You talk about, that was not Vince Lombardi versus Bill Belichick on that fucking sideline last Thursday. Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Raheem Morris for Atlanta. And of course, Todd Bulls for Tampa. That was a battle, who's going to fuck up more? Who's going to be a more idiot coach here? Here you've got friggin Raheem Morris and he doesn't know is, delay a game penalty when you're trying to line up a game tying field goal to force overtime, which is inexcusable, unconscionable if that could happen. And then he got Todd Bulls on the drive before that. You just got the interception of Kurt Cousins, manage the clock and the game. They take a holding penalty. The play calling was ridiculous. Screen passes when you're trying to run the clock out and you give Atlanta all that time. Clock mismanagement 101 from Todd Bulls. I mean, that was not, like I said, that's not Bill Landry versus Don Chula. - No, Coach will stay now like last week with that Raheem Morris and Todd Bulls battle. My gosh, coaching malpractice really on both sides. And they're two of my, they're not two of my favorite coaches. I always said this about Bulls. I haven't liked Bulls much going back to the Jets. He was a disaster there. He can thank Tom Brady for his one Super Bowl with Tampa Bay. But coaching has always left a lot to be desired for me with him. And then Raheem Morris, that's another story. Like I say, I wasn't enamored the first time he was a head coach and I'm still not. But I do think Tampa is in a good bounce back spot. Here's the thing that I'm hesitant on because for me it's Tampa or pass. They've been an underdog and they've been a pretty good underdog. You know, they've been cashing tickets. A lot of them have been in the underdog role. Is this team ready to be favored and ready to be favored by more than a field goal on the road? Even with a first time quarterback and Spencer Rattler starting because we've only seen Tampa favored once this year. 6.0 favorites to Denver, they lost 26.7. Okay, Tampa's out, but Tampa's, you give me Tampa as plus six underdog or big points as a dog, I'm interested. Pick them even, I'm interested. But now we're asking them to win by margin on the road. That's a little bit of a different price range here for Tampa Bay. That being said, they're off a loss. They should be ramped up. Baker, Mayfield said all the right things after the loss. We have to finish. We have to execute for four quarters. For me, I still like Tampa Bay. I'll probably bet them small, but again, they are favored now and being asked to win and lay more than a field goal on the road, that's a new price range for them and they haven't always been great in this particular points spread role. Being said, you can't get Bette New Orleans on a short week with Rattler, no way. And that defense too has got a lot of injuries. The linebacker core was decimated against Kansas City. They took advantage of it. People running free in the secondary for Kansas City. That whole game, that defense is a disaster right now. Maybe a Tampa team total over. If you don't feel comfortable laying the points, maybe the team total over. Might be the better look here with the Bucks in this game. Especially if that New Orleans defense is going to be as decimated injury-wise this week as it was on Monday night. What do you think here Phil? Bucks, Saints. Yeah, I agree with what you're saying here as well. Big bounce back game for the Buccaneers. New Orleans Saints, the offensive line is also banged up. Buccaneers are a big heavy blitz team. Backup center last week, great point. Yeah, so I mean, banged up offensive line, rookie quarterback, heavy blitz team. I will say as a quarterback, when I watched that game, Buccaneers last week, boy, when you blitz and you drop into zones and you don't re-route people, I mean, you saw pits running right scenes, just nobody even touching them. And I mean, this is the easiest throw. If it's a quarterback, if you can identify blitz and then the defense doesn't re-route anybody, I mean, it's obviously different with Kirk Cousins. But, you know, Rattler, who knows at this point, I don't feel comfortable with the Saints. I think it's a big bounce back game for the Buccaneers. Saints defense is decimated. I think the Buccaneers are going to win this one. And I also do, you know, the totals is going to be difficult for me as well because I just don't know how many points the Saints are going to put up either. So, you know, I think, you know, Buccaneers minus three and a half is comfortable. I'm not sure about this toll here, but yeah, a big bounce back game for the Bucks, rookie quarterback, injuries. I'm leaning Bucks here. - All right, by the way, that's why we have Philip Nelson on the show with insight like that. He knows how to, you know, he saw it from his couch about how they should have adjusted on defense against Kyle Pitts and Tom Bolz can't figure that out. - I mean, there's multiple plays where just, I mean, a seam row and I mean, I'm watching the linebacker just not even touch them. Just letting them run right through. And the lane was massive. And if you're Blitzen five, I mean, you can pick that up comfortably as an offense. So if you're Blitzen five and you're not rerouting anybody, I mean, you can shred them, but Radler, who knows, we'll see. - And that'll be it. Like I said, I'm fast, I've just fascinated at how Radler plays and I'm fascinated that, and there's another coach that's not exactly, you know, Chuck Knoll the second in Dennis Allen. There's another one that he leaves a lot to be desired from a coaching standpoint too. So the Todd Bolz versus Dennis Allen, buckle up folks, as far as coaching in this game. All right, next up, we've got Cleveland and Philadelphia. Philadelphia nine point home favorites. 42 and a half the total in this game. Lay it, lay it. Philly off a buy that they missed off after the loss. The no show against Tampa Bay before the buy week was a disastrous performance. Now they did have injuries. There's no question about that going into that game against Tampa, that played a role, but they also played terrible. And, you know, and this now becomes a very important game for them. When you look at it, they're two and two. The NFC East is suddenly very competitive with the Giants getting a big win against Seattle with Washington surprising everybody. Dallas has now won a couple in a row. So this all of a sudden becomes a very big game in the division for Philly off a buy week in that terrible loss where they got blown out by Tampa Bay. Cleveland looks like a stick of fork in them. They're done team. I mean, I was here in the post game audio after that blowout loss to Washington last week. None of it was good. I mean, Kevin Stepansky talking nonsense, you know, talking in circles. It's like, yeah, just keep on battling, keep working. Just the same old coach jargon that I hear for teams that suck. So from that, you know, it's, you know, it's not a matter of working, man. It's personnel. A shit quarterback is over the hill. He's shot. He's done Sean Watson. What happened to his mobility, by the way? When he was in Houston years ago, this is a guy that could escape the pocket, fleet of foot, terrific on the move in the pocket. He's like that old fucking man. Old geyser in the quarterback. He reminds me of Eli Manning at the end of his career, you know, a decade ago. He can't move in the pocket. Stiff is a board statue in the pocket. Can't get out of trouble. Like what happened to his mobility? Did the massage shit, you know, take away his ability to run around? And then what the hell is going on? I guess so, my gosh. He looks like an old man in the pot. Like he just doesn't run anymore. Like it's just incredible to see that part of his game, which was so good for Houston, just completely disappear. But what's wrong with his defense? I mean, this defense just continues, especially on the road to have problems. You know, this was an issue last year where on the road they give up big points. This is just not a great defense either. It's time to admit that. Miles Garrett and who else is a great time, a big time playmaker, whether it's on the D line at the line backing clock. Wooster Koromo is actually pretty good. But after those two guys, it's just not a whole lot. You know, Denzel Ward's never healthy in the secondary and they've been picked on. And you look at these recent road games. This is going back to last year with Cleveland. 22 allowed to Houston, 31 allowed to sincey, 45 allowed to Houston in that playoff loss for Cleveland last year, 20 to Las Vegas, who don't have a great offense by any stretch. And then 34, they get ripped apart by Washington last week. So this team looks like they are crumbling and just unraveling at the seams. This line was minus six early in the week. It's now, it's crossed through a key number of seven all the way up to nine, which speaks of how the betting markets are crashing down hard on this Cleveland Browns team right now. And I can't blame them. They look like a complete and utter mess. You've got Philly off a loss, Philly off a buy. I laid it, I got, I didn't even get six. I got seven a Monday morning. Even at nine, I would say lay it. I think Philly can win this one by double digits. This is not a Cleveland team I want any part of right now. Phil, what do you think Browns Eagles? - Yeah, I completely agree with you here. I mean, Vic Fangio coming off a buy. He's got, has time to prepare against, you know, the NFL's burst offense to Sean Watson. I mean, they're handcuffed with him. This seems like a management thing. Like, I mean, he's got to, you know, they're getting forced to play him. I think, you know, I think Kevin Stafanski, two time, you know, coach of the year, you know, there's absolutely no way he wants to be playing him right now. You know, minus nine, you know, that's tough. I agree with you. I think this could be an explode game for the Eagles. They're getting AJ Brown back. Devante Smith's healthy, Lane Johnson's coming back. So this offense, you know, they're getting healthy while the Browns are crumbling. This would be kind of an interesting tease game as well for me, tease the Eagles down. But I could also see it exactly how the way you see it as well. Like just an absolute massacre. So obviously Eagles here, dependent upon whether or not you want to, you feel comfortable, Lane, the minus nine at this point. Good for you getting the minus seven. I would do that all day. But yeah, I think this is going to be a bloodbath. - All right, Indianapolis, Tennessee. Next up, we've got Tennessee, two and a half point. Old favorites, 43, the total. I jumped on this a couple of days ago. I actually took the Titans here. And I know Tennessee's had issues, but they did. And now it was Miami with out to, but still, you had to get a win. They finally did in that game against the Dolphins off a bi-week as well following that Monday night game. So it's a good spot for the Titans. And more than anything, this is just a bet against this indie defense, which look, even when fully healthy, I don't think they have a great defense, but they are beaten up. This is unbelievable, the injury report. And it's worrisome for the Indianapolis Colts on that side of the football. You look at the injuries that have mounted on defense for this football team, you look at the Quitty Pay, you look at, obviously, they've got more injury. They've got to Kenny Moore in the secondary. They've got some other banged up linebackers as well going into this game. The D-lines ravaged, still without their starting center, potentially Ryan Kelly. There's a lot of issues right now for the Colts, although I will say their offense has still moved to the football well, even without Ryan Kelly, their starting center. It's the defensive injuries that are far more troubling and worrisome right now. They are a decimated team on that side of the football. So I jumped on Tennessee, I jumped on the over early in the week, total's been bet up from 41 to 43. I think that's just people reacting to just these cluster injuries that the Colts have been besieged with on a defense right here. And we saw it last week. That's Jacksonville, who had been struggling on offense, just absolutely carving up a carved job of that injury riddled Indianapolis defense last week. So if Trevor Lawrence and the Jags can do that, maybe even Will Levis and this Tennessee offense at home and off a bye week with extra time can do that. What do you think here, Phil? - I completely agree with you on this one as well. The one question mark that I have is from what I'm seeing, it's unclear as to who's going to be playing quarterback for both teams at this point, right? I mean, I don't know if Flacco's going to be in there. Richardson's making his comeback. Levis, I could see Callahan using Levis' injury as an excuse to kind of push him aside. But I think that's one thing that kind of makes me a little bit weary to want to place a bet on this one, but the total obviously jumping up a little bit here. Injury's a big factor here, but I need to know who's playing quarterback if I'm going to place these bets here, but for the most part, I think the Titans defense is better. They're the home favorite. I think two and a half is pretty safe for the Titans. - Yeah, it looks like it's another week without Anthony Richardson. The latest is he's probably no one, at least one more week, and it'll probably be Joe Flacco. - Well, if that's the case, I would take him over. I would take him over 'cause Flacco's going to-- - Well, I don't could chuck it, he can play. - Yeah, absolutely, and I think I said this last week, but like, I mean, you can see the receivers on the Colts know that the ball could be coming to them. It looks like they're playing with a little bit more sense of urgency those receivers are. And with Richardson, I feel like they're kind of thinking, timing's off, he's a scrambler. Sometimes when he takes his eyes off the downfield and he puts his eyes down and wants to start running a little bit, but these receivers with Flacco, I mean, those guys are running their routes and Flacco, he's a timing passer. He hits his back foot and he lets it rip. And, you know, it's interesting, man. He, Flacco looks like he should be a starter somewhere, you know? So if Flacco's playing, you know, I think, you know, this over is a good bet as well. - You're going to get that one brain part, bad decision, bad throw interception from Flacco every game you make. But he's also going to make a lot of plays for you, especially if you give him protection. And we saw that last week from Indy. Like I say, they didn't lose as a Joe Flacco last week to the winless Jaguars. They lost because that defense is just not great when they're healthy, but they are really in trouble now with all the injuries. Just not a very good defense right now. All right, the rest of the games, the next set of games are late games at late afternoon, Chargers and Broncos, Chargers two and a half point, road favorites, 35 and a half, the total in this game. I love the spot here for the Chargers, Phil, I do. Off a bi-week, extra time to prepare, chance for Justin Herbert, maybe to heal that ankle, maybe have a little bit more range of mobility here, coming out of the bi-week when they lost to Kansas City, 17-10, Denver off a blowout win against Las Vegas, 34 to 18 last week. Three wins in a row for this Broncos team, both straight up and against the spread to improve to three and two after that dreadful start. No, Bonix is getting better. There's no question, you're starting to see improvement. 19 of 27, two touchdowns, 206 through the air, throwing a little McLaughlin and Gervante Williams, running the football, Cortland Sutton, and little Jordan Humphrey and company in the receiving game, defense that's actually played solid the last couple of weeks. I think it's a good spot to sell high, though, on Denver. And I know this game's in Denver, it's never an easy place to play, but I like this situation for the Chargers. They're coming off a bi, they're Jim Harbaugh as a coach, we trust, we like his ability to get his team ready to go, especially with that extra time. I think at less than a field goal, I like the Chargers in the spine. Their defense has been really good, the Chargers. Let's not forget that. The reason why they hung in there so long was such an inept offense against Kansas City. That defense kept Mahomes bottled up for like three and a half quarters until Kansas City finally got that go ahead game-winning touchdown. Chargers have a defense this year, and I think Denver's offense, even though Nix has made strides, it's gonna be challenged here by this Chargers stop unit. So, less than a field goal, I like the Chargers. Lean under two, 35 and a half. The one thing about the Chargers, the offense is still sketchy with Herbert trying to get back to 100%. The defense has saw it and they run, run, run the football tick, tick, tick, tick, tick, tick. The clock is moving, so limited possessions. It's a low total, but it's low for a reason. What do you think here Phil Chargers Broncos? - I agree, both these defenses are great. You know, Harbaugh wants to run the clock. You know, he wants to run the ball and grind it out. I think, you know, the one thing that's interesting, you know, that the Broncos play a lot of man and they blitz a lot too. So, if they can neutralize the run game versus the Chargers, and then, you know, get them into passing situations, and you know, the Broncos secondary is great in man coverage, and the Chargers don't, quite frankly, they just don't have receivers that can separate. So, I think an under is a very safe bet here. I do agree, I think two and a half, I would take the Chargers here as well. It's just going to be interesting to see, you know, how many opportunities both these offenses get with, given the fact that they both kind of want to run the ball. And, you know, I think I saw some sort of a stat that was, you know, the Chargers rank last in the league and plays ran, you know. They really want to just grind the clock out. So, I think an under here is very safe. Chargers minus two and a half. I think that's a very safe bet as well. I know in college football, when I handicap it, I use a stat called plays per minute. It's actually an even more accurate representation of pace and tempo in college football, plays per minute. And I think if there was a stat like that in the NFL, LA Chargers would be at the bottom as far as plays per minute, for sure. They are methodical, that is for sure. And even your Packers are, I noticed that last week, like they don't really leave that play clock down. A lot of their run game and short-intermediate passes and Green Bay is another team that's there and no rush. Yeah, I'm seeing the Chargers rank dead last and seconds per play. So, you know, I think, there you go, that's your stat right there. Yeah, seconds per play. A plays per game is a good stat. Yeah, plays per minute, seconds per play, even. Yeah, those are even better representations, more accurate of pace and tempo, for sure. All right, Pittsburgh, Las Vegas, Pittsburgh, three-point road favor, it's 36 and a half the total. As long as this doesn't get above three, I'm leaning Steelers here on the road, bounce back after a really tough loss to Dallas, that game that was delayed by lightning on Sunday night. It was a step back for the Steelers offense, though, in Justin Fields after making some strides and really starting to play better. And that defense, I'll be honest against Andy, they struggled and even against Dallas last week, like Dallas was moving the ball that whole game against them. So, I'm a little concerned. Like if TJ Watt and Alex Heismith don't pressure, that secondary, oh, I'm starting to get worried about it. They're giving up some plays through the air again, the Steelers, but it can Las Vegas exploit them? You know, that's the question. Gardner Minshu gets benched, Aidan O'Connell takes over, there's a quarterback issue, I don't know if either of them can play at this point, quite honestly, for Las Vegas against, and a Pittsburgh team that's not gonna be in a good mood, losing now two in a row. And look, Tomlin on the road laying less than a field goal or a field goal or less has been pretty good. We saw them, they were in this price range against Atlanta in week one on the road, they won that game. So, I'm leaning Steelers here, I just think there's too many issues with Las Vegas. The quarterback issue positions an issue. Devontae Adams is frustrated, he's on the trade block, it sounds like. Things are kind of falling apart here a little bit, Frantonio Pierce. No quarterback that he can count on, Adams is angry and frustrated, may want out of Las Vegas. The defense is supposed to be good, but they got shredded by Denver last week, and that's with Max Crosby back from injury. And they still gave up, you know what, 34 points to Denver last week. So, yeah, at minus three or better, it's Pittsburgh for me in this one. What do you think here, Phil? Yeah, I agree with you here as well. It will be interesting to see how Aiden O'Connell plays. Sometimes, you know, you put a new quarterback in, you get a little spark or whatever, but like you said, just too many issues with the Raiders. I think there's distractions, Devontae Adams. Defense not playing well, not playing like how they should be. You know, Pittsburgh minus three all day. And are you leaning over and under for the total here? I'm leaning under, but my gosh. Yeah, me too, six and a half. We're not getting a bargain there. Exactly, and I mean, I would monitor this. If this goes up at all, I would definitely go under. But yeah, I'm, both these offenses are sputtering. George Pickens is frustrated again, you know. You know, I don't need a hundred years, man. No wonder you quarterbacks get so upset. Yeah, I know kidding. Well, Pittsburgh minus three and under here for me. Give me the ball. Give me the ball. Give me the ball. I'm open. Why didn't you see me there? Yeah. All right, Atlanta and Carolina. We got Atlanta six point road favorites and Kakalaki of 47, the total here in this game. Lot of money coming in on Atlanta. This another team, the betting markets, are crashing on Carolina. I mean, they are the worst team in the NFL right now. There's no doubt about that. But there's an element of trepidation I have laying a full six on the road with Atlanta too. Let's not forget this team got a one point win at Philly, losses to Pittsburgh and Kansas City, two point win to the Saints at home, and a six point win in overtime against Tampa. Winning by margin is not usually Atlanta's MO. And this is one of those crazy games where I just got that weird feeling about this one. I know at home they got ripped by the Chargers. They lost by 10 to the Bengals. I bought in the Bengals game though with Andy Dalton at quarterback, they moved the ball there. I've got a funny feeling Carolina actually. If this hit seven, I'm not betting it now. I think if you got Atlanta early when it was minus three and a half, minus four in this game, you got a good number, nothing wrong with that. But if this gets to seven and it might by Sunday, I'm going to be interested in the Panthers. It's an ugly home underdog. Just because I don't trust Reheem Morris, Kirk Cousins, or this Atlanta team period. And even their defense, that hasn't been great. They're giving up points on a weekly basis. I'm leaning the red rifle here on the Panthers. And if it hits seven, I'm going to take it. Lean over as well, I agree with the total vote. How do you bet Carolina under the total right now? Yeah, all right. Bill, what do you think? No, I agree. I think this is going to be a high scoring game. I did see the Panthers are missing two offensive line starters, but the Falcons pass rush has been nonexistent this year. So I think that this is going to be a higher scoring game. Panthers, man, they're just trying to hang on. I think the red rifle, he's going to probably be slinging it around. Like you said, I'm not sold on the Falcons yet, either. I think the defense just gets shredded. I can see the Panthers. I'm definitely taking over here. But yeah, like you said, if this hit seven, I would definitely lean Panthers here at home. Plus six, or seven. Plus seven. Yeah, if it hits seven, I'm interested. Yeah, Atlanta, two straight games have gone over the total, and the three straight have gone over for the Carolina Panthers. And they're four and one to the over overall this season. Carolina, and that defense is just rancid. It is just so awful right now. That's the concern with taking Carolina, but still, I think their offense can have success here against Atlanta. Interesting stat, Falcons, all three, their three wins have come with a total of winning by nine points. So I mean, lean this over. And also, I think the Panthers plus seven is-- I would do that as well. Yeah, and that's the thing, right? This is not a team that we consistently can count on to win by margin, Atlanta. And that's what the concern is for me. Remember last year, two, nine seven, they lost in Carolina. What a thriller that was back in December last year. And Carolina actually beat them. And I think I took Carolina in that game, actually. So I know I understand people are just going to want no part of Carolina right now after the last couple of weeks. But I think if this gets any higher, I'm interested. I'm a buyer on the Panthers, especially if it hits seven. And I do like the over. All right, Detroit, Dallas. Detroit three-point road favorites, 52. The total-- it's cheap to me. Detroit off a bi-week, the better of these two teams. I know playoff revenge, right? Because Dallas lost in Detroit in the playoffs last year. But that's not a sole refactor for me, at least, to bet on a team. This is clearly a better team, in my opinion. Detroit, better defense as well. I'll be at Dallas on defense against the Giants and the Steelers. Did show some level of improvement on defense. But I still don't think they're a great defense by any stretch. And this is going to be a step up for them. And I got to face Jared Goff. You got to face the dynamic duo of Montgomery and Gibbs in the backfield. I'm on Ross St. Brown and company at receiver. This is going to be a big tall-- Jameson Williams, who's really emerging now as well for them at receiver. This is going to be a much different challenge for, I think, a Dallas defense. But to me, even after the last two weeks, still has some questions. So I like Detroit here, minus three. I think it's cheap. What do you think you're a field Detroit Dallas? I agree. You also got to think, Jared Goff indoors-- I mean, he lights it up indoors. I think that's another thing. And then also, a big mismatch to me is that Lions offensive line versus this Dallas defensive line. I think they're going to dominate the line of scrimmage. And any time you do that-- Maybe you can say the other way around, too, Detroit defensive line versus Dallas offensive line. Exactly. Exactly. It's Dallas offensive line they've had in years. Right, exactly. So you know, Michael Parsons sideline, DeMarcus Lauren's sideline as well. So I mean, these guys aren't playing. I think this could be a high rushing game, especially for the Lions. And then any time you run the ball, you can throw it. And Jared Goff is really good off of play action. I think, yeah, minus three Lions, that is cheap. And I think an over here as well. Yeah, I'm not-- I lean over, too. I don't love it at the-- I don't love it either, yeah. But I still agree, though. I wouldn't be betting under in this game. All right, we got the prime time games left. Sunday night football, we've got the Cincinnati Bengals taking on the New York Giants, Cincinnati, minus three and a half on the road. The Giants, obviously a big win for them in Seattle last week, a heartbreaking loss for Cincinnati against Baltimore. They should have won that game and somehow found a way to lose. They got the Lamar Fumble in overtime, and then they missed the field goal from McPherson because of, I think, it was a bad hole, too, if I'm not mistaken on that field goal attempt. And then the next thing, there's Derek Henry, what, 40 plus yard running your eye hole to put you in field goal range to win that game in overtime for Baltimore. So brutal loss for the Bengals. They will try to bounce back here in this game against the New York Giants. And I think when you look at this point spread, this is, again, do we want to lay points on the road more than a few ago with a bad defense? I don't. It's a terrible Bengals defense right now. Lou and Emma Rumo, the defensive coordinator, must be pulling his hair out. What has happened to this defense? It's been terrible this season. I can't lay three and a half on the road with a bad defense. I lean Giants, but I don't like the Giants as much as I did last week because it feels like when they're on the road and they're getting more points, that's when they're at their best. Sometimes when they're at home and they're getting less points, that's when they screw up. And that's when they disappoint their home fans, like they did against Dallas, obviously, Thursday night last week. But I would still lean Giants. I just cannot back a team with the defense that the Bengals has laying more than a field goal on the road. So lean Giants, lean over 48 as well. And look, Daniel Jones and that offense showed me something last week against Seattle. No single Terry, no Malik neighbors. What important will those guys come back this week? Makes that Giants offense even better. But one Dale Robinson stepped up. You've got Tyrone Tracey, the running back at a huge day without single Terry. The offensive line at a solid game. There may be no cave on Thibodeau though in this game. One of their key pass-rushers. So keep an eye on that injury. But lean Giants, lean over for me Sunday night football. Phil, what do you think here, Bengals Giants? I agree here on this one as well. I think both the Bengals defense on the road. I'm not sold on that. I think this could be a high scoring game. Daniel Jones actually has been playing a lot better than expected this year, especially if he gets his weapons back, watch out. Plus 3 and 1/2, I like that. I'm not entirely sure if they're going to win the game, but plus 3 and 1/2, I like that in an over for sure. Especially if he gets those weapons back? Absolutely. No doubt. All right, Monday night football, the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets, Bills 2 and 1/2 point. Road favorites 41, the total in this game. Of course, Robert Salah shown the door fired earlier this week by the New York Jets. Look, I'm not surprised. I mean, he's been an awful head coach here. Every week, it's penalties. It's not being prepared. It's all kinds of issues that they have had, and it speaks directly on coaching as the big part of it. No, the defense did all they could against Minnesota. I thought they played a solid game in London last week, but the offense continues to have issues. The O-line is struggling. They can't run the football consistently. Aaron Rodgers is always under pressure. They haven't had many of their big receivers step up, either Lazarge dropping passes. Garrett Wilson's being blanketed, so it's not always easy for him to get open and find freedom down the field. It's just a whole boatload of issues. Now, there's this whole controversy stemming from the firing that Robert Salah was apparently going to either fire the Nathaniel Hackett. Aaron Rodgers' little buddy as his offensive coordinator, or at least to Modem, and Aaron Rodgers picked up the phone and said, "Oh, no, you don't." And apparently, maybe stepped in and said to Woody Johnson, the owner of the Jets, "Hey, he's about to can my OC, "can this guy, Robert Salah." There's no doubt Aaron Rodgers is running the steam and organization. You're fucking delusional and diluted, if you think otherwise. He's the one calling the shots. And I think he had some kind of hand in Salah getting axed this week because he knew Salah was about to pull the cord on his buddy, his best friend, Nate Hackett, and take the play calling duties away from him. That's how I see it. I don't know that Phil, this is just conjecture on my part, but I honestly think that's how it would have went down, in my opinion, because Aaron Rodgers, like the GM of this team now, he's calling the shots. You want to know why he's running the team. Robert Salah let this guy, Aaron Rodgers, go on this, you know, pilgrimage or whatever it was in the off season when it was supposed to be camp and OTAs and all that. And he didn't have a problem with it. He just let Aaron Rodgers is running the ship here. Let's be real. That's exactly what's happening here for the New York Jets right now. Now, of course, they have the new Intermed coach, who's the defensive coordinator for the Jets taking over. How does it affect them? Now, here's what I say about all sports, Phil, with the coaching change. Usually in the first game, you get a bump. And we'll see if Jeff Albridge, who's going to take over the defensive coordinator's Intermed coach, they get that one game bump. But I think there's too many issues. You got an angry Buffalo team coming in. This is just a stay away from me. I just want to sit back and I want to watch it, see how it unfolds, see how the Jets look with it. Because I'm not convinced the coaching change fixes it. Coaching change is going to fix the offense. Coaching change is going to fix the play calling, because it's still hack at last I checked. We're not making a move there yet. So I'm not convinced the Jets get that first game coaching bump from a court change that you see so often in many, many sports. But I also don't want to bet against that in the first game with the new head coach. So it is a clear pass for me. I would honestly lean under 40. That offense does not work. And the Bills offense, look, that was the worst game. Josh Allen can play last week against Houston. What, 9 through 30? Throw on the ball. Missing maybe Khalil Shakir is top receiver again for this game. We'll see if he comes back. So I would lean under, I think, from a side perspective, is just sit back and see how it unfolds. But it's a very, very fascinating watch for sure. Monday Night Football. Bill, what do you think of your Bills Jets? Under absolutely, absolutely no doubt. The last 10 times these teams have played. Eight of the 10 have gone under 41. And the average has been 35.8 points a game. So that's one thing right there. And then in the last three weeks, both these offenses have ranked 30th and 31st in success rate. So what I'm seeing too, just as I watch both these teams play, is they don't have any success on first down. Second down is just as bad. And then all of a sudden, it's Rodgers and Allen in third and long. And these two defenses are too good. They don't give up big plays. Absolutely an under in this game, no doubt. And to be completely honest here, yeah, I don't know about this bump here or anything like that from the coaching change either. But Bills minus 2 and 1/2, I could see them pulling this out by a field goal. All right, lean Bills here for Phillip Nelson on Monday night football. I kind of lean that way too. But like I said, I honestly don't trust that the Jets are going to get this huge boost from the coaching change. I think there's more. I think there's-- I think the internal issues, even with Salah gone now, I think they still exist. I think there's definitely some internal issues. Oh, absolutely. I'd like to block a room issues right now with this team. Absolutely. And like I said, I think Aaron Rodgers is pseudo GM and coach right now because he's running the ship and he's pulling the strings. And whatever he says goes, I think, right now. That's kind of what I think is going on right now with the New York Jets. But fascinating stuff. Great stuff from Phillip Nelson, another great show. NFL Week 6 preview, hit the like button. For those of you, of course, here watching on YouTube, we will wrap it up now with best bets to wrap up the show. Phil, we'll start with you. What do you like for NFL Week 6 best bet? This is an easy one. It's what I just said. I really like the bills minus 2 and 1/2. And I like this under big time. Rodgers just isn't the same quarterback. There's a lot of turmoil. There's a lot of distractions, things happening there. That's that. I just said, eight to 10 games all going under 41 with an average of 35.8 points a game. These defenses don't give up big plays. I have to also apologize to all of you out there. My bet last week on the Jets clearly did not work out. But that's why I'm flipping the script here. This team is not in good shape. Coaching fires are always tough mid-season. I'm definitely taking this under, and I'm taking bills minus 2 and 1/2. All right, there you go. Which one do you want to make best bet? Bills are under. Oh, man, under, under for sure. There you go. Under it is for Philip Nelson. There we go. Under 41 is the best number out there right now. So Bill's Jets under 41 Monday night football for Philip Nelson with his best bet. My best bet here for NFL Week 6. This was a tough week to choose best bets because there's really a lot I like here going into this game or this week, I should say. But I'm going to go with my Washington commanders, plus 6 and 1/2 against Baltimore. I believe in them. And I know there's a step up playing Lamar in the Ravens. I think Washington's got the ability to get the job done. And sometimes when teams are mispriced, it takes a while for the betting markets to adjust. That could be the case with this much improved commanders team. And again, a defensive Baltimore that has shown more than enough susceptibility for Jaden Daniels and the Washington offense to take advantage of it. So I think we have a competitive game there in Charm City there, which is where Philip Nelson is right now. Washington plus 6 and 1/2 against Baltimore for my best bet here for NFL Week 6. That's a wrap. Philip, anything you want to say before we wrap it up? No, man, great show again. I will say that's another great one that was on my list as well. I agree with you on that. Commanders are going to be competitive in this game. Plus 6 and 1/2, absolutely. I can see that. So great pick. Hopefully we're 2 and 0 this week. Let's go for that 2 and 0 sweep. And like I said, the best bets, unfortunately, last week, disappointing. But the rest of the card was excellent for the most part. It was a great week for me. And we'll hopefully have a great week 6 as well in the NFL. Philip Nelson hitting it out of the park again with a great job with the analysis. We hope you enjoyed it. For Philip Nelson, I'm Ian Cameron. There's been the NFL Week 6 edition of Ian Cameron's Football Frenzy. Enjoy the games and good luck. Enjoy NFL Week 6. And we will see you again next week for another edition of Ian Cameron's Football Frenzy. [ Silence ]