[MUSIC] Welcome in the latest episode of that SEC podcast. I'm your host, Michael Bratton. Go buy SEC Mike on the Twitter machine, and there he is. Senior editor over at Athlon Sports the Dean. Stephen Lassen, what's up, brother? Hey, Mike, it's good to be talking with you. We are a couple days within the week seven of the season. Also, I mean, I'm a college football nerd. I'm a junkie, there's games on Tuesday and Wednesday every week, leading up to the week for Thanksgiving, so I know if you're an SEC fan, maybe some conference USA, Sunbelt, Mac, doesn't get you going, but it's a nice little appetizer for the weekend, just saying. Right, yeah, banding the family, tuning in for some college football. That's my motto there, you know what? Absolutely. It's a good appetizer for the season. Hey, maybe some of these teams, SEC teams will be playing in bowl games. Maybe some of their players will be transferring to the coaches. So, yeah, you're scouting. You're prepping for what's to come later this year. I never even thought about it like that, but that's brilliant. Stephen, you want to know the players that you're going to have next season. Yeah, you're going to watch these lower level teams. That's where we're at this crazy sport. You know what? Mike, it is so crazy to even be thinking like that, but you almost have to. Because you go back to like last season, like Nick Saban was talking about Kia Mitchell, the corner at Toledo and somehow they were scouting him even before, you know, he didn't go into the portal, but potentially. And so you just have to know all the rosters, all the depth charts who might be shining and potentially on the move up. But, you know, we're also in that space where it's like every Sunday, you're hitting the like the refresh to see coaching changes, coordinator moves. So we're in that space where there's a lot of great games still to come. But it also feels like the stuff off the field is about to bubble up even more. Yeah, no doubt. But before we get to that, Stephen, got to remind the folks we're brought to you. Thanks to our friends over at my bookie, the online sports book. So Stephen's going to give his predictions for each and every SEC game based on the my bookie. Point spreads over unders in just a minute. But again, if you really want to help us out, go over to my bookie, sign up for an account. And use the promo code. This is the most important part that SEC T H A T SEC over at my bookie. And if you use that promo for every dollar you put in there, it's your initial deposit. They're going to double it as long as you put 50 bucks into your account today. Thanks to my bookie. They're fueling the show this season. So it could really, really help us out if you do that. But Stephen, before we get to that, also. We love our prize picks. Come on, Stephen and I may not be able to pick a game to save our life, but we are pretty good at the prize picks. Daily fantasy sports brought to you by prize picks. You go over there, you play $5. They get you 50 instantly with the promo code SEC. This is daily fantasy. They got college football, NFL, NBA, Major League Baseball, on and on and on. They got you all covered at the prize picks. Are you ready, Stephen, to give us your prize pick selections for the upcoming weekend? Absolutely. And I am hoping for all the cousins that these are far more successful than the lock of the week. We're underwater in the locks, but I think we're above water and prize picks. So I think we're headed for another good week. Absolutely. So who's your first most confident, I should say, prize pick selection? We are going to start in the Red River rivalry. And let's go with Quinn Ewers. There are two plays on the board that I like this week. The first one is 248.5 passing yards. I'm going to take the more than side on that one. Remember, Auburn threw for over 300 yards against Oklahoma. Also, even if there's some early rust, I think Ewers performance is going to be critical here for Texas. There should be some opportunities if they can protect against this Oklahoma secondary. So more than 248.5 and also take the more than side on the passing touchdowns. He's at 1.5. All you need is two. I like Quinn Ewers on Saturday to go more than both of those totals. What do you think about those, Mike? Yeah, I'm trying to think because he's not played in a while. And archmanding has shined. So there's no concern. You think that that arch kind of steals some snaps from Quinn Ewers. I mean, let's assume Quinn Ewers is close to 100% as he possibly can. And he gets to start, which by all indications, all indications he will. No, very little concern that you think that archmanding subs for him at all? I have very little concern because I do think that this is Quinn Ewers team when he's healthy. And certainly, I think if there is some concern about the fantasy play here, it would be that there's a little bit of rust, maybe he gets off to a slow start. What does that mean? Like if he's really struggling in the third quarter, what would you do? Would you make a change? I still think that Ewers was probably the Heisman front runner, second place, third place, however you want to word it after that performance against Michigan. And I think he's going to, even if there's some early rust early on, I think he'll pick back up where he kind of left off. So I'm not too worried, but I definitely can understand there's maybe a little bit of trepidation about that just because of the injury and arch-manning factor. Right, but you do make a good point. I mean, I didn't, Peyton Thorne kind of, of course he's got some good receivers, and it was on the planes, but if Peyton Thorne could do it, no disrespect to him. Quinn Ewers, we know much better player, much better options for at least better scheme, certainly, better head coach, better everything over there in Austin than what they got at Auburn right now. You know what? Absolutely. I've got a lot of faith in Steve Sarkeesian and his ability to scheme up something good here, especially maybe some easy stuff early on to get Ewers kind of back into things. And, you know, to your point, I trust their offensive line a lot more than I do the Auburn offensive line. And of course, it's not on the, it's kind of a neutral side, of course, in Dallas too. So it's not playing like at Auburn in this environment with this offensive line. I think Ewers knocks the rust off pretty quickly on Saturday. Yeah, and I got a lot of faith in cousin JR, who all he does is show up and gift memberships. We appreciate you cousin JR. Well, he just gave cousin Robert of membership to join the family. So we appreciate you cousin Robert, cousin JR and man, if we could give a Heisman trophy to a outstanding cousin, I, I've given it to JR. You know what? These are mid-season MVP, isn't he? Yeah. All right. What other prize pick selections you feel pretty confident about, Stephen? So let's stay in that Oklahoma, Texas game. I think that Mike sent me this and the first thing that jumped out to me was all quarterbacks this week. So in addition to being a college football nerd, I just love talking about quarterbacks. So we're going to stay with Michael Hawkins on the, and go with the Oklahoma side of things. He's at 171.5. Two ways you could look at this. He could probably throw a lot because Oklahoma might be trailing. Also, he had one really big throw against Auburn. I'd like to see a little bit more consistency and I wonder here against this Texas defense, if that total might be less than 171. I think maybe what you're looking at is a lot of rushing, maybe not as high in the passing yard. So he's at 171.5. I'm going to take the less than side for Michael Hawkins. On the positive side, I am going to take him to get a rushing touchdown. He's at 0.5. Just need one. So give me the more than side on that one. And we will also play the more than side on the interceptions. So he's at 0.5. I'll take Texas to pick off one pass. They've picked off seven this year. So the odds favor an interception there. Yeah, it's going to be fascinating to see what this sooner offense looks like two weeks to prepare. Let's see who they get back on the offensive line, if anybody, but more time to get repetitions and chemistry going and Michael Hawkins. Again, the fact that he won on the road, I have to believe he's going to be coming into this Texas game at an all time high in the confidence realm in his first career start. But it's all you're asking a lot of them. Second career start against number one team in the country. I tend to like all those selects. And heck, you said he'd get more likely more than half a rushing touchdown, which that's probably my favorite one. Yeah, and he's also at 2.05.5 and passing plus rushing. So if you feel pretty confident in his rushing, which I do, that's not a bad play at all. Because I could easily see him breaking off one long touchdown like he did against Auburn. Also in the passing yards too, a lot of questions, of course, about Oklahoma's receivers. Are they going to get anybody back? What's this group look like? So it wouldn't surprise me. I think 1.71. That seems I would probably play the less than side of that and maybe look to play the rushing plus passing ones. So do you have any more prize picks for us? We're going to the game on Saturday night. We got two and I like offense in this game. So I'm going to be playing Jackson Dart at 1.5 passing touchdowns. I'm going to take the more than side. I'm also going to take the more than side of Garrett Nussmeier's passing touchdowns. 1.5 as well. So I'm taking on the two quarterbacks shining on Saturday night and what could be a high scoring game. Yeah. I mean, that's almost like free money because this is more likely going to be a back and forth affair. The last couple of times these two have faced. I mean, it's been a scoring bonanza. I do think Ole Miss defense is better than it's ever been under Lane Kiffin though. So maybe, maybe there's a chance it's not that high scoring, but still. I mean, I think if this game gets into the low thirties, it's going to be because these quarterbacks are scoring a couple touchdowns. Absolutely. It would be probably the most, the funniest thing that could happen was we're sitting here talking about the offenses and LSU's defense plays the perfect game. But the season in Ole Miss has been great defensively this year. So we end up with some sort of like 20 to 17 struggle. But I think on paper, I mean, it really, and obviously it's hard to forget last year was such a high scoring back and forth game. Probably doesn't end up as high scoring as last year. But I think the odds to me favor both Dart and Nussmy are getting the ball into the end zone twice through the air. Right. Well, I can't wait to hear who you predict to win that game, Stephen. Oh, wait, before we get to it. Cousin Phil, appreciate you. Mr. Moneybags over here. Two questions for us. Thanks, cause. Where the heck is Cousin Shane? So, I think Cousin Phil reached out. He said he's relatively new to the show. So on Wednesdays, we do a double header. Stephen makes his predictions and then immediately after we're doing a mailbag show. So Cousin Shane will be here for that one at the top of the hour. So it'll be a normal, normal show, normal time. And why do I keep seeing Texas fans talk so much? They haven't faced 80 competition. Do you think they could get through the SEC schedule without a loss? Ollie, I hope not. Can you imagine the noise? I'm going to throw up our schedule here, Stephen. But people already know what I would have to say. So what do you think, Stephen, can Texas get through this thing undefeated? So a bold prediction is that nobody in the SEC goes undefeated this year. Yeah. I think that speaks to the quality of the league. Texas, of course, to us to play Georgia. They've got a tricky road game against Arkansas. And of course, there's that game against A&M late in the season. So I do think Texas stumbles somewhere. But I think this is one of the top, you know, two to three teams in the nation. I think just in terms of being the most complete teams right now, Georgia, Ohio State, Texas, kind of in front of the pack, if you look at metrics and sort of the regular polling. But I do think there is a loss somewhere on that schedule for Texas, I think. Yeah. No, I think without question, there is. Now, it could be dead wrong. But just the way this league is, again, I'll throw up this schedule again, Oklahoma's not a given. I don't think certainly Georgia, I don't care where that game's played. I would tend to lean Georgia. That doesn't mean Texas can't beat them. But in all of a sudden, A&M's looking red hots, Kyle Field, Florida. I can't, I can't, for the serious face, say Florida can knock them off. But heck, Vanderbilt and Arkansas looking good. We'll see about Kentucky. But yeah, there's just, there's not going to be any. I don't think there'll be a single SEC team go undefeated in conference play. And it's not just Texas, it's just LSU and A&M as well. All three of those teams are undefeated in conference play. But I do not think by the end of the regular season, we'll have a single one that is undefeated, which is to me is going to make the season that much more exciting because you just, you can't predict it. Absolutely. And I mean, just look at the games to come up. I mean, Texas and Georgia, Ole Miss, Georgia, Texas, Texas, A&M, Tennessee, Georgia, the LSU Ole Miss. We're just hitting the halfway point of the season and we still have some monster matchups still to come. So I think, you know, everything you've seen out of Texas so far, I mean, I think it's been good from, you know, their defense has played well despite a lot of some new pieces shuffling in. They haven't played maybe the toughest offenses yet. But you look despite losing Quinn Ewers, Arch Manning was flawless, the new receivers have looked great. So some of, I think, if, I think it's a question of asking about like why are they highly ranked, I think just the eye test tells you they're probably one of the more complete teams in the country right now based upon what we know. And of course, they were in the playoff last year. So despite a little bit of turnover, having a head coach like Sarkisian who just led you to the playoff, one of the best quarterbacks in the country and Ewers. And then also what they've been doing on the recruiting trail, the roster talent has been getting better. So that's why I think they're up there. But like I said, I still think with the games to come in the matchups, that the standings in the SEC are going to look a lot different in four weeks than they do right now. And everybody's going to end up with a loss somewhere. Yeah. All right, Steven. So let's get into it now. Prediction time and we're going to get this one out of the way. Get the hell out of here. Missouri. I can't. Oh, wait, I had the graphic here pulled up, but it's here we go. Missouri. Why in the world are we playing at UMass? I don't know, but they probably need to get the heck out of Dodge after that performance against Texas. A&M. And thankfully this will be an early game. So we got it at noon Eastern 11 central. And somehow this is nationally televised ESPN to Missouri, favored by 27 and a half points on the road over hundreds, 54 and a half. And I think the funniest thing I heard all weeks, Steven was a drink. I believe UMass is one in four, but this team is a lot better than that one in four record they got over here. So I know how do you see this and it is UMass better than there, one in four records. It's like making them out to seem like the 85 bears or the 70 Steelers or something or like the Vince Young lead Texas team. I don't know, man. I mean, let's just look at the one thing that these two teams have in common, which is they both played Buffalo. I mean, Missouri beat Buffalo 38 to nothing, UMass lost to Buffalo 34 to three. So I think Eli, we saw the little maybe perhaps he was behind the blanket tactics last week, some little motivation. You know, it's a hard road trip from Missouri. They're not used. I mean, going up to UMass where it's a smaller stadium, it's a kind of a early start. So maybe a little bit of a sleepy environment coming off the loss. But the bottom line for Missouri in this game is UMass is in the, you know, the one twenties in most rankings right now. They're one of the 20 worst teams in college football. Just one victory. You look at their line of scrimmage, they've given up 20 sacks this season. They allowed 367 rushing yards to Northern Illinois last week. So there's no reason on paper, this game should be close. It should be a Missouri blowout. And that's what I want to see, because the way that Missouri's played, they've played some teams close to start the year. They got beat bad at A&M. This is an opportunity to rebound sort of reset for the second half of the season. And I think they will. I think they'll take care of business, maybe a little bit of a slow start, but I think Brady Cook gets on track, Missouri's offense hits a few big plays, Missouri 45, UMass seven. That's exactly what Missouri needs too, to get back on the right track and get that bad taste out of their mouth. You know what? Absolutely. I think it's the perfect get right game at the right time, considering what happened last week. And then you start looking ahead at Auburn game, Alabama, kind of a chance just to get an easy win, take care of business and then reset for that stretch coming up because it's going to be critical. So it comes at the right time, a little bit of a weird road trip, but a good opportunity from Missouri here. Cause there's shades in the comments, he says, you, um, you mass whooping. Exactly. Well said. All right. Let's get into conference play, Steven, where these games really matter and well, I don't know if this one will, but Mississippi State at Georgia, Georgia is a 34 point favorite at home. Over oners 53 and a half, this game kicks off four 15 Eastern time, three 15 central on the SEC network. How do you see this one playing out, Steven? Mike, I think the question that I have about this game is not who wins. It's almost like what does the path look like for Georgia with Texas coming up next week? I could easily see a game where Georgia just goes through the motions. They're always in control, but it's not like a 52 to nothing blowout. Like I could see just kind of like a solid 34 to seven type victory, because I think Georgia might be peeking ahead to Texas. Also, they've had some injuries last few weeks, trying to get everybody healthy before next week showdown. The one thing, if you wanted to make a case for Mississippi State to keep it close, you know, they've had two weeks to prepare. They gave Texas a lot of trouble early on in that game a couple of weeks ago. So I will be curious to see how Mississippi State plays from a style standpoint, because they tried to slow things down against Texas. They came up short, but it worked early. And I think you've had two weeks to get Michael Van Buren ready. So there's some things working in Mississippi State's favor. The problem is I think Georgia just has too much firepower, too much defense, too much getting ready for Texas. So I'm going to take Georgia 45 Mississippi State 13. Yeah. 45. I mean, it is what it is, but it might be a little too optimistic on the Georgia side of things. They might keep, they might score just in the 30s, but you get kind of get my point is just to. Right. Right. Well, I mean, no, I'm sitting here thinking that I hate to even that I'm going to utter this Stephen, but that's almost like a win for Mississippi State be like, it's only 45, 13, what you know what I mean, like, like that could be a slight moral victory, I think for state. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't, I don't think I am. I think, I mean, I know Jeff Levy doesn't want moral victories, but I think the way that first half played against Texas was a good sign. I mean, you're looking to see some fight out of this team with the injuries in the roster situation. Maybe at two weeks in a row to go to Georgia and do that, you're trying to find that core for a next season. And so if Van Buren plays well, all of a sudden you're kind of feeling maybe some optimism that maybe some of these games potentially in the second half looking a little closer, but it's a heavy lift to go into Athens and win. Mm hmm. All right. How about this one, Stephen? South Carolina at Alabama, Alabama is a 21 point favorite. Both these teams coming off tough losses last week in conference play. The over under is 50 and a half total points. Game kicks off at noon Eastern 11 o'clock central nationally televised ABC, which team rebounds here? Yeah. That's the big question here is it's sort of like the rebound also plus like desperation bowl to see kind of which team gets on track. And I do think Alabama will probably have some motivation here. There should be some desperation. They were, I mean, let's be honest, it was, it's embarrassing, you know, for Alabama to have the kind of performance that they did against Vanderbilt. Maybe by Saturday at three 30, there will be no talk about Kaitlyn DeBore wearing a t-shirt on the sidelines. They'll be talking about just an Alabama victory. But I think if you wanted to look at last week and see what that could mean for South Carolina, you saw what Pavia did on the ground through the air, the creativity. In South Carolina, slow this game down, lower possessions and you end up with the same kind of style of a game. I think that's probably not in the cards here for South Carolina. If it was in Columbia, maybe you could see it being a little bit closer. I'm very interested to see how Alabama's defense responds because after last week and the talk through the week, how much they struggled in the last six quarters. So I think there's a lot at stake here for Alabama. So I think they're going to rebound, Mike. I like them 34 to 13 Alabama rebounds. Now, I will respond to that in just a second, Stephen, but I do apologize. A comment caught me here cousin Danny. He's remember he's two for two there. Two weeks ago, he said he would eat wildcat poop. If Kentucky knocked off Ole Miss last week, he said he would eat nerd poop. If Vanderbilt knocked off Alabama, and now he's saying if Mississippi State beats Georgia, I'll eat bully poop out of a solo cup. So we are testing cousin Danny's superpower of eating poo, apparently. But if he goes three for three, we're going to have to show up Miss Men's house and just see what kind of voodoo he's got going over there. But yeah, sorry, sorry to go solo side track there, Stephen, but it's going to ask if Danny knows the, you know, like who's going to win the national title, the lottery numbers for next week, fortune telling. What happens here? If, again, we have seen South Carolina play really well, Stephen, they've, I mean, they destroyed Kentucky, should have beat LSU, questionable calls, and heck, they put themselves in a huge hole last week, 14-0 right out the gate. Have they not done that? Maybe they do beat Ole Miss. So there's reason for optimism, I think going into this game and heck, you know, they certainly don't run the Tim Beck Vanderbilt offense, but they've got pieces that can, can do some of the similar things. How bad would this be though for, for Dibor and Alabama moving forward if, even if they're sluggish? Like, I feel like at this point, the fan, fan base will be mad if they just win by a touchdown. Yeah, I think Kane Womack would have even more of a hot seat after last week's game. I do think that this Alabama team though, they have played some bad ball in the last six quarters, but there's also a lot of talent and a lot of, still probably a lot of pride in this defense, which also makes me think that they kind of have things turned around a little bit this week. The one matchup that concerns me if I'm South Carolina is Sellers and his mobility is going to be critical, but also the offensive line for South Carolina is going to have to play a lot better than it did. And I think if last week's game was closer, I might actually have the score a little bit closer, but I just think after the way that Ole Miss's defensive front came in and played in Columbia, I know Alabama is probably not as strong there, but also the rebound factor here too for the Crimson Tide. Just sort of motivation, desperation, I think they take care of business this weekend. Okay. How about this one? Now we're getting into some really competitive ball games here, Steven. I'm kind of torn on this one. Fascinated it to see what you think of Vanderbilt at Kentucky night game there in Lexington, Kentucky favored by 13 and a half points, the over under 46 total points. Game kicks off at 745 Eastern, 645 Central on the SEC network in Vanderbilt. Keep it rolling or heck, you could say the same thing about Kentucky. Next time we saw them, they knocked off a top 10 Ole Miss on the road. Who stays hot? Maybe is the better question. It's funny to sit here and look at this bread and say is Vanderbilt being disrespected? I mean, how many times have, you know, and to be fair, they are coming off the huge win. There's a letdown factor. I think all those things are certainly in play, but also I think when you look at Kentucky, look at their scoring in SEC games so far this year, 6 points, 12 points, 20 points. You know, their offense in SEC play hasn't exactly been lighting up the scoreboard. So I think that kind of, when I look at the spread, the first thing that comes to my mind is I like Vanderbilt to cover at least. I do worry about the letdown factor and going on the road where Kentucky has won 7 out of the last 8 in this series, Vanderbilt did win the last time they played in Lexington. I don't know that series history means a ton here, but it's still, I find that those numbers to be interesting. I think for Vanderbilt to be able to win this game, they will have to do what Ole Miss was unable to do. And that is control the defensive front for Kentucky, you know, be curious to see if Pavia does a lot of the same things he did against Alabama, a lot of misdirection. We saw him using his legs. I'm sure he will be a focal point of this attack because it's going to be very difficult to block Dion Walker and his Kentucky defensive line. So I think Kentucky's, Vanderbilt keeps it a lot closer than his spread, but I like Kentucky to win. I've got him 27 to 20, much closer. I think the Commodore is probably a little bit of a letdown, but I think Diego Pavia keeps a minute until the very end. Yeah. I mean, truly, it wouldn't surprise me one way or another. I'm so I'm so fascinated because again, the winner of this one, Steven, is going to be looking pretty, pretty good. I mean, I'm trying to, and they'll both be two and one in SEC play. I mean, that would be among the best records where I guess Kentucky would be two and two. But again, Vanderbilt, you win and you got some winnable games coming up, Kentucky, same deal here. I don't know that this is a, this is a turning point type game for both these programs I feel like. Yeah. And I don't know, Mike, I'd be curious to hear your opinion on this one, but you know, I mentioned kind of what Kentucky has done in SEC play this year, but you look at Vanderbilt Vanderbilt's struggles against the past this year and Brock Vandergift has one touchdown pass in his last four games. Now, he made that critical throw against Ole Miss on fourth down, but it seems like this is a matchup coming off the off week with Vanderbilt's past defense that you would want to see some growth out of. Now, Mark Stoops just may play this game 24-20, 2017, and it may not matter, but I think going forward to your point, there's an opportunity here with the schedule and their edge recently over Florida to sort of build some momentum here. So I'd like to see some development at a Brock Vandergift this week. Yeah. And, and I mean, quite honestly, after, after last week, how can you say that Vanderbilt doesn't have the better quarterback in this matchup and quite frankly, to your point, the better offense now, their defense, I think is by far the weakest, weakest defense in this game. So again, it makes for an ideal matchup, I think, strength on strength, weakness on weakness. And now, I think that, I think there is something, Stephen, to Vanderbilt finally having that belief. Now, they're no longer a joke, you know what I mean? Yeah. Where they've done something that, that heck, many, many, many of these teams in this conference cannot say that they have done knocked off a number one in recent history. So I hope it's just a start because I'm tired of Vanderbilt being a laughingstock. I mean, I don't think it's the same old Vanderbilt. I mean, I, we'll see what, I guess we'll see what happens in Diego, Pavia finishes his eligibility at the end of the year. But I mean, to me, I think, we came into the year wondering about Clark Lee and sort of this 10 year, but I think he deserves a ton of credit. And I mean, I thought maybe he was coaching his way towards the hot seat, but he went out and brought in Jerry Kill, Tim Beck, what they've done in the portal. I mean, just a ton of credit for sort of zero ego, finding the right path for your team. And also, Vanderbilt needs to do something different offensively. And this is it. You know, it's a good mix of the past and the run game and sort of the creativity that they use. So I think certainly there's the letdown factor here for Vanderbilt, but I just, something tells me that Pavia, the Pavia magic, he'll keep it going this week and they'll play well. Also, go to Kentucky in the injury report with Maxwell Harrison. And if he doesn't play in this game after missing the Ole Miss game, that could be something to watch here too. Mm hmm. Hey, shout out to cousin Rick, another hall of fame cousin here. Appreciate your brother. Thanks, cause. Imagine the Aggies playing the horns in the final game, both undefeated and SEC play by week optimism. So let's let's address that just real quick, because A&M is on a by this week for cousin Rick here, but again, not saying it's, it's, well, again, likely. And we kind of already addressed this, remember on the last one, Stephen, where we, it's really a mistake. If this season has taught us nothing, then it's, it's such a mistake to see here and say, oh, Mississippi State, win, South Carolina, win, Auburn, win, yes, based on a lot of logic, those should be wins. But this, this season, you got to throw it all out. So that being said, what, what is the likelihood that A&M and Texas go into that showdown, both as undefeated and conference play? It's not crazy. I still think that Texas probably stumbles, maybe against Georgia, or they get there. And of course, A&M's got a couple of tough tests. I mean, you go to South Carolina. I certainly think it would not, I guess I wouldn't be surprised. I think the more likelihood is both lose. So I guess to answer Rick's question, I don't think it's by week optimism. I think it could be just by week, just reality, like it's a very strong possibility, but it's very hard to go and defeat it in college football. And it's very hard to do that in the SEC. That's kind of why I think both teams just find a loss somewhere. I would say if I had to put a percentage on it, I would say 10%. What's your thoughts on that? I'd probably go a little bit higher. I'd go maybe like 30%. Oh, you're sucking up because of Rick. I think A&M is getting better by the week and I think they are a dangerous team if that, if Wigman plays as well as he did on Saturday to go with that defense. And then of course, I think pretty highly of Texas as, you know, one of the maybe top five teams in the country, so yeah, so. And then we had one more here from Cousin Phil. Appreciate your brother. Man, I'd like to know what this man does to give us all this money. There is no way Alabama covers spread. They just lost a Vaidi Vaidi bet the farm on South Carolina, South Carolina is dangerous. So again, I wouldn't, I wouldn't say he's wrong because certainly it seems like fair or not. I mean, it's seems like there may be some kind of cultural issue down there and Kayla Du Boers feeling the heat, but he'll never admit it. But that's why he's wearing a T-shirt. Yeah, the T-shirt, I mean, all this nonsense, you know, he's going to, he's going to get to him eventually. I don't know if it's this weekend, but this may be one of the more challenging work weeks of Du Boers life. I don't think that's an, that's an overstated statement. No, I think that's a very much spot on. I think to answer Phil's question, I think one of the reasons I'm taking Alabama to sort of rebound is Kayla Du Boers teams have done this. They did this in Washington. I know it's a lot different in the SEC. They struggled with like the air. They lost Arizona State. They struggled with them the next year at home. They kind of do this during the season. Now South Carolina is also dangerous because the defense of lying could create some havoc here. I mean, we saw Vanderbilt, Sac Jay, the Mill Row create a fumble. What if Dylan Stewart comes off the edge, Sac's Mill Row creates a turnover early. They start to get some momentum. So I'm kind of banking on, that's a one game sort of blip for Alabama. I have some major concerns, but I also am not sure that South Carolina has the right formula to go into Tuscaloosa and win that game. And apologies, I know you're not even paying attention to any of this, Stephen, but we're getting bombarded by characters is a nice way to say it, but I've been in these people as quickly as I can. I mean, yeah, but again, all right, let's move on, Stephen, another huge showdown here. Cousin Shane is in shambles all week because he doesn't know what's going on here with his beloved voles here, but Florida at Tennessee, man, Oh man, history says, doesn't matter what the spread is, doesn't matter who the quarterback is, don't matter who the coach is, doesn't matter how many fans are in the stands. It does not matter. Florida simply has Tennessee's number, but they are a massive, massive favorite in this game. 15 and a half point favorite over under is 55 and a half points. This game's a seven o'clock Eastern, six central on ESPN. What do you got in this one, Stephen? So Mike, let me ask you something before we dive into the game. We do the panic meter on Mondays. What's the anxiety level for Tennessee fans? A thousand. Yeah, I was going to say, I mean, you look at the series trend in the course, it doesn't necessarily mean anything, but Florida of course, they've won six out of seven, but also only two of those were decided by one score. So the winner of this game typically wins by more than a touchdown. I think that I'm going to take Tennessee to rebound and win this game though. I know the series history. I suspect Tennessee is going to get Florida's best shot. One of the matchups that I'm looking at right away is what happens on the line of scrimmage. You've got that Tennessee defensive line against Florida's offensive line in games against Miami and Texas A&M Florida allowed five sacks. So against power conference competition, that offensive line struggled. I think if I'm Tennessee, that's my path to victory. It's early on. It's getting after grandma's. It's getting after DJ Lagway because I think we have seen that if you give your quarterback time to throw against Tennessee secondary, there are some plays to be made there. And on the other side of the ball, Florida is 92nd in the country in rush defensive success rate. That says to me, it is a Dylan Sampson type of game. And at home, I expect Nico and this offense to rebound a little bit. So I am taking Tennessee 31 Florida 20 Gators get the cover, but Tennessee wins. So here's the thing though, Stephen, it's not just, it doesn't matter who the players are the coaches or where the game's played. It's seemingly, and maybe it's just because I'm on one side of it, seemingly, Tennessee is picked to win a lot of these games too. And they still can't do it. So yeah, that just compounds it, but again, I can never recall, could be wrong, but I can never recall Tennessee being a 15 point favorite in this matchup. In fact, the only time I really remember them upsetting Florida was Spurrier's last game. That's like literally the only one I could remember, but that's neither here nor there. Yeah, I just think much, much like you were saying, I mean, this, all we keep hearing from all these coaches, Stephen, it's a week by week. It's totally different. Yeah, if Tennessee plays as poorly as they did against Arkansas, Florida can beat him certainly, but this game ain't in Gainesville. It's, it's, it's in New Zealand stadium at night. So I think it'll be a different Tennessee, but Florida is playing better than they ever have. So I don't disagree with anything you said, but I have no confidence in it. I'll just say that. Yeah, I can understand that from the Tennessee side of things. I also think it's dangerous as, you know, and this just kind of came to me is like, if I'm Florida, what do you get to lose? I mean, you're, you know, double digit underdog. You've haven't played well in games against power conference teams this year against A&M and Miami. You've been embarrassed or coaches on the hot seat. What do you have to lose? You can go in, play loose. I think that is going to play to Florida's favor, but also on the Tennessee side of things. I mean, there's, like we went through, there are a lot of matchups that favor the balls here and also the home field advantage, I think in, in this situation could help Tennessee getting back home, getting away from the road. And I just think too, if you're Florida, I think you need to be a little bit more aggressive in this type of game. And I don't know if Billy Napier is going to be willing to be as aggressive as he needs to, to win this type of game. So I like Tennessee just because of the matchups. And I also think that there is sort of that urgency to rebound. And like you said, week to week, these teams are very much up and down. I mean, Tennessee at home gets back on track. Well, I'm glad you said that, Steven, because, I mean, unless Tennessee is totally ineffective on offense again, Billy Napier, you know, he, he showed it in the past playing Tennessee and he's already stated it this week, the calculus may have to change. You have to be a little bit more aggressive, but I don't know if that favors Florida in this matchup because again, I think the way Graham Mertz is playing and he's such a check down guy. I mean, if you, if you're talking about being aggressive, the quarterback you want is lag way and he has played really well, not a big fan of their rotating them in and out. I, I don't know that there is a right way to do it, but again, given the, you know, every second series we switch it out, I mean, I don't know, it's, it seems illogical, but the point I'm trying to make is I think if you want to get super aggressive, you want to push the ball down the field, it's you got to give it the lag way yet. Can you trust a true freshman in front of a hundred thousand fans? It's just, it's not set up. Well, again, if this was in the swamp, I think it's a completely different story, but the one time we, we have seen DJ lag way in an environment similar to this was, was that A&M or no, excuse me, that was at home against A&M and still he looked, he looked very rattled back here. So I think Tennessee can get after him, which forces Florida to kind of go conservative again, because for whatever reason, Graham Mertz is, is unwilling or unable to push the ball down the field, if that makes sense. It does. I almost think of like Mertz and the, and of course, if they get Eugene Wilson back, that could be a huge lift here, but I think of almost like it's paper cuts. It's like trying to get three yards, four yards here. You're trying to stay in that high success rate and stay out of third and longs, which I think if I'm Tennessee, I'm letting James Pearson that pass rush get after him and make them execute on third and 11, third and 12 try to create some disruption. So in that home crowd may help out with that, especially if they can get a few penalties, maybe some false starts and things like that. You know, as, as we were talking about this game, I almost think back to the, was it 2022, where, you know, it came down sorta to the wire in that game with Anthony Richardson in Florida. It felt like Tennessee was, I think maybe like a nine. I might not be remembering that correctly, but it felt like it's almost like the same setup. The spread is a little bit bigger this time. I think Tennessee is just a better team too. So I think, like I said at home, home cooking favors the volus this week. Well, I think cousin Phil says it quite well here, Stephen. If Tennessee loses this game, I'm going to, I'm going to drown Josh Hyple in the Tennessee River along with all my Tennessee here, and I'm going to become a Vandy fan acre down. So that, that sentiment I think is felt across validation right there. Josh Hyple don't lose this game, right? Of course they could lose the Florida beat Alabama and yeah, I guess that helps. Right. All right. Now we're getting into the really meaty games here. How about Ole Miss at LSU, Ole Miss favored by three and a half points according to my bookie overunters, 63 and a half total points. This game's been wild, chaotic, explosive, high scoring coaches, had to blow up their coaching staffs allegedly because of this one last year. How do you see this one playing out, Stephen? Mike, it's, it's the game that I am most anticipating this week. I cannot wait for Saturday night to get these two teams on the field. And like I said earlier, this game was crazy like awesome last year to see Jaden Daniels and Jackson Dart and there's two offenses going back and forth for four quarters and coming down to the final possession. So the intangibles here to me are really interesting. You've got the revenge factor for LSU. You've got the home environment Saturday night. You've also got the edge in series history. I mean, Ole Miss has not won, you know, at LSU since 2008. I don't necessarily think that series trends mean a ton, especially in this era of college football when everything is different. But it's been a while. And certainly, like I said, the extra time to prepare will help LSU get ready for this game. The matchups that I've got my eye on number one, it's quarterbacks, Jackson Dart, Garrett Nussmeyer, the receivers in this game. What's the injury report for Ole Miss? Is Trey Harris going to play? Are they going to have Henry Parrish? Those things loom very large. But I think we could be in for a really entertaining battle between these two quarterbacks back and forth for four quarters. Also, the offensive lines and defensive lines for both teams. It's like, you know, strength on strength and, you know, weakness on weakness coming into this game. So those two groups might decide who wins on Saturday night because I think if Jackson Dart has time to throw, that LSU secondary is vulnerable. I've gone back and forth on this pick all week. The intangibles tell me to take LSU. I didn't sell my Ole Miss stock after that loss to Kentucky, so I'm going to stick with them here, Mike. I'm going Ole Miss 34 LSU 31. Ole Miss wins with a defensive stop in the end. Well, Steven, it's funny that you say that because it just dawned on me. That could be wrong. I usually am. But I do recall last week you were kind of back and forth on Missouri A&M. And I believe I can't recall the game, but I think there was one the week prior you were kind of torn on. And every time you're torn, you pick the wrong team. So LSU is going to win there, right? Right. Right. So that's just the point I've tried to make here. But you could be right here. It's going to be a fascinating game. And in the comments, so let's see if you can answer this one. Steven, I'm seeing a ton of these comments. They don't even want the score prediction. They want how many fake injuries are we going to get from Ole Miss in this game? Could you give us a ballpark here? Let's say about, what do you think? It's going to be pretty high, don't you think? The way LSU can move the ball. Yeah, it's got to be. It's hovering around. The over under is probably six and a half. I was going to go like eight, I think. Okay. So you're going over. You go over. Yeah, I'm going over. Yeah. More then. Right. Reference over there at a prize fix. A couple things also for LSU. I think Caden Durham, he's kind of emerged off and on against South Carolina against the South Alabama they played a few weeks ago. A little bit more balance on offense. And also, what does LSU able to do different defensively now that they've had two weeks to get ready for this game and sort of get settled in this scheme a little bit longer? So there's a ton of interest in me for this game. I think it's going to be one of the better games, maybe in the first half of the SEC season. And I wonder, again, I hate to belabor this point, but to stop the fake injuries, I would just fake injury every time Ole Miss gets a first down and see how they and just see how they because that's how their their entire system is based on tempo. Right. So just do I would just do it every time to them until they get them until they stop doing it. But I don't know if that would even stop them. You know what? It'd be for like a six hour game. But these did seem to be straight back and forth. Let me ask you this about this matchup. And I wonder if I'm very high on the Ole Miss defense so far, but you do look at the quarterbacks they have faced and Lenora Sellers and Brock Vandy Griff and probably Hank Bockmeyer of Wake Forest. It's not exactly that the toughest laid a quarterback. So I think we'll find out about their secondary. But could this game just come down to third downs and red zones? Like who's better there? Yeah, I mean execution, because these are potentially two playoff teams. I mean, heck, they could still both get there. I don't think this is an elimination game for either of them, quite frankly, but I think the winner, again, it's so foolish. We got to stop like looking ahead and saying win, win, win, loss, you know, but I think the winner comes a near lock to make the college football playoff. So that's just that just impresses the importance of this game. Absolutely. The seventh game of the year for Ole Miss, you know, bye week so far. It's another thing. You know, you've played a couple SEC games in a row, but also I think to your point, you know, it does feel like timely stops are going to matter here. If it does play out like we think with the offenses and the quarterbacks and the receivers trading punches for four quarters, you know, who can keep one team out of the end zone, hold them to three points, who can get off the field consistently on third downs, it really just might be that small stuff. And I think which defense may have to bend a little bit, but don't break. So there's a ton of just intrigue overall for this matchup. All right, let's get to it. Steven, first time as SEC foes cannot wait for this one, Oklahoma versus Texas, the Red River shootout, not a rivalry shootout, Steven. I don't care what they want me to call it. I'm called it what it's called, but Texas, Oklahoma in Dallas, Texas favored by 14 and a half points over under 50 and a half total points. The game kicks off at 330 Eastern 230 central on ABC. How do you see this one playing out? So I have a little series trend nugget here that I think is kind of interesting. And you look at what's happened in the last six games between these two, Oklahoma has won five of those six and four of the last five were decided by one score. The one time that it wasn't that's when Dylan Gabriel was out for Oklahoma. So traditionally these games have been close with Oklahoma finding a way to win see last season's thriller. If you need some evidence of that one. The one question I've been asking myself all week about this game is what is the argument for Oklahoma to win absent rivalry in series. And I think it has to start on defense. It has to be the same thing that we saw against Auburn where, you know, maybe they bend a little bit. You don't necessarily break. You keep Texas to feel goals and you find a way to maybe put together a touchdown on defense. Maybe you score on special teams. The path for an Oklahoma win on paper seems to be hard. I do think Oklahoma will benefit from the two weeks to get ready though. I think Michael Hawkins having two weeks the offensive line. Maybe they found some things in that last game against Auburn. So I suspect we may see a little bit better Oklahoma offense here. The problem is I just think Texas is better on both sides of the ball. So I've got Texas 34 Oklahoma 20. I think Oklahoma covers and I think they'll keep it close. But I think in the end, I think Texas maybe scores in the fourth quarter that pulls away. But the rivalry I'm going to bank on keeping Oklahoma in this game for four quarters. Right. Well, do you buy into the logic? Because that's all I keep here and all week from the Sooners. Even is you throw the records out, rivalry. The favorite in this game usually favors or the favorite usually performs not as well as the underdog. Do you buy into that? Do you give any credence to that, I guess? I do because, I mean, Oklahoma, the way last year's game was such an awesome game. And on paper was a game Texas probably should have won. I think they were favored in as well. But just, I just look at the matchups for both teams here. And I try to figure out how can Oklahoma manufacture 24 to 30 points that they're probably going to need. I love their defense. And I think their defense will trade punches with Sarkeesian and Ewers for four quarters. I just worry the injury report it received was pretty lengthy. If you look at how that Auburn game played out, they needed the long rushing touchdown, the long passing play, a horrible throw by Peyton Thorne. It was intercepted and returned like three or four plays decided that game. And they're going to need to kind of pitch that no hitter almost in Texas is better than Auburn. And I think the 3420 score kind of reflects that I think the rivalry, the mystique of this game helps Oklahoma early. I just think Texas pulls away in that fourth quarter. And that's why it ends up attending to like 12 13 14 point victory for Texas. Well, about Bill, Bill Beanbow, Bill Beanbow, the offense a lot. I mean, he's got two weeks to work with these guys as Wade wanted me to say it. But could he work some magic here? All I heard off season was this guy, this guy's a magic maker. And then it's I don't think it's his fault. I think it's again, the same thing I pointed to all off season. You can't just throw guys together. I don't care how good they are. And it's going to be a cohesive offensive line. Do you think he could work some magic here? And this could be their best performance, even though it may be the best defense are facing. Yeah, I think so. And I think some of it could be it felt like some of the injury situation is sort of stabilized a little bit. And they're starting to find the right four or five guys. And I think there was some optimism after the Auburn game that hey, they might have played better than they have the first couple weeks of the season. Now they are going to need a significant jump to be Texas. So I think there's off the off week, maybe you get a little healthier. The mobility of Hawkins helps your offensive line. Still though, I don't know that it's up to the level that you need to beat Texas. And just in general, I think this underscores something that this off season will have to pay attention to. It is really difficult to bring in three or four transfers on the offensive line and ask them to play at a high level right away unless those guys are like all Americans at other schools. It's just really hard in the SEC to get this group together and fast. And what about this though, Steven? Because for not mistaken, Texas has shown they'll turn the ball over as does Quinn Ewers. He's shown the history, you know, this game last year, he had multiple turnovers. If I'm not mistaken, if they turn it over multiple times, do you give Oklahoma a puncher shot to pull the upset? Absolutely. And you mentioned turnovers this year, you know, bumbles by running backs, things like that. To me, that's part of the path for Oklahoma is they're going to need some bounces in this game. And it starts with turnovers, short fields. I just, when I think about this offense for Oklahoma, and I think they're either going to need to hit five or six really big plays offensively, or they're going to need some short fields. And the short fields come off turnover. So if they can get plus three, then I think we're talking about a completely different outcome potentially on Saturday, it'd be much closer than the spread for sure if they can do that. And last thing, Steven, which game are you most confident about? Which game are you least confident about? Ole Miss and LSU, I think, is the one that I'm least confident in. And for my most confident, my lock of the week is going to be Missouri. Okay. You know, I went back and forth on the others, but you know, we talked about how the anxiety level is high at Tennessee, what does Alabama do? There's the rivalry for Texas, Oklahoma. Missouri just seemed like the safest lock. We got to get a win this week because, you know, we're three and four this year and we can't, we can't keep having these losing streaks. All right. So hey, everybody, stay tuned here. Cousin Shane is going to be jumping on the line here in just about five minutes. We're going to do a mailbag edition of the show. So we're going to close this one out and just start another one. But before we go, Steven, can you tell everybody how do they follow you? How do they find your work? Absolutely. You can follow me on Twitter at Aflon Steven, Steven LCFB over on Facebook and Instagram and Aflonsports.com is where you can check out all my writings each week. All right, Steven. Thank you so much. Thank you to each and every one of you for hanging out. We'll catch you in about five minutes or probably even less of that at this point. Hey, buddy, this beers for you, Mike and Cousin Shane. That SEC podcast loves the pirate and the pirate loves that SEC podcast. Hail State.
