Gorilla Sports
Gorilla Sports podcast NFL Week 6 edition with @JWebb777
[MUSIC] >> What is good, my man? >> What's up brother, how are you? >> I'm doing all right, how about you? >> Pretty good, man, pretty good. Ready to talk some football. >> Excellent, me too. It's tough, there's, we got the Yankees' Royals game on at the moment. There's a lot happening, but we're gonna plug away on some NFL. How was your week five? >> Pretty good, I ended up going two and three on my podcast. And then again, I keep smashing the single games. So I ended up, yeah, and I'm going three and O in the KC games, so yeah, I ended up being another profitable week, so can't complain. >> Love to hear it, well, hey, let's get into it, we got some games to skip over, but there's some fun ones this week too. And I think one of those is gonna be tomorrow night's game, 49ers and Seahawks. >> Yeah. >> The total on this one has been moving up. I posted and discord that I liked the over yesterday of 47 and a half. It's up to 49 and a half now, and a lot of that due to injuries. I mean, Riek Wolin, the top corner on the Seahawks, he's gonna be out. They just placed one of their defensive tackles on IR. It's just a beat up, like the Seahawks defense is just destroyed. We saw it play out against the Lions a couple of weeks ago. The Giants were able to move the ball pretty easily without Malik neighbors last week. The 49ers at three and a half, I don't really care, I don't need to touch the spread cuz the Seahawks can score too against a pretty mediocre looking 49ers team. But I still think there's value in the over. I think the highest I would bet it would be over 50 and a half. I don't think I would go any further than that. But I expect there'd be a lot of points tomorrow night. >> Yeah, that's a good call, I do like that. And yeah, I don't like the hook on that. You give me the three, I'd probably take the Niners, but you add that extra half. I mean, you can see Seattle kind of backdoor in them. I mean, you saw them choke away the game to Arizona last week as well, right? So did they score in the second half? Is that what it was, or are they blew a 14-nothing lead or 14-point lead? >> To Arizona in the second half there, yeah. >> Yeah, I don't think they scored in the second half. But I think there's like 23 to 10 or something like that at half time. And they end up losing like 24. >> 24, 23, yeah, exactly. >> Yeah, so absolutely brutal there. On the prop side, one guy I was looking at is Zach Charbonet for rushing. I think they are going to want to try to run a little bit more. And his line right now at Fandall is only 12 and a half. So I like a little rushing over there. So projections were like looking at unders. And I have no interest in any under in this one. And like, overwise I think that price is pretty fair. I don't think Kittle's going to play. I think they're going to be able to throw the ball. I also like pretty rushing over. I grabbed it, it's at like 13 and a half now. I grabbed it at 11 and a half. He's been scrambling a lot. And he's been getting, you know, last week I think he had like 20-something yards. Like he's been going over this number pretty consistently. So I like the over on rushing on him as well. And he props that you've seen. It looks like there aren't a lot of lines up right now. Yeah, no, I've been scouring all day. That's awesome. You said that one of my buddies that I really sports bet with in one of my chats. That was like one of his right away. He was like, yeah, give me perdy over his 11 and a half rushing. It's only going to go up from here. I had to project it at least 15. So yeah, I got in at the 11 and a half too. So pretty pumped about that. Yeah, I got Kenneth Walker over his receiving job prop. I love this look. So it's over 18 and a half receiving yards. And over his last two games, he's got 11 catches for 93 yards, which I absolutely love. Like he's traditionally known as like a pure just running back. But in the pre-season Mike McDonald was like, we really want him to be a three down back. We've been practicing on this, which I absolutely love. And I mean, they're a checkdown machine here. I mean, Zach Charbonnet, like you were just talking about everything, he's got 18 catches on the year, right? I mean, that's the sixth most for any running back. And that was kind of with the two games that Ken Walker didn't play. But Ken Walker has, he's got the fifth highest target share of any running back. And he's only played the three games. So I love that. San Fran gives it the seventh most receiving yards to the RB position. He went seven catches for 57 yards versus the Giants last week. So I love it. Give me, give me Kenneth Walker over 18 and a half receiving yards. Well, you got the best of the number because the best I could find right now is 19 and a half and I just used to the over. So a few books have it at 20 and a half. I think you're definitely going to be getting some value on that when all is said and done. Love it. Go to, that's all I had for that game. Me too. I think a lot of the receiving props are pretty fairly priced, but we get another early ass game. This is going to be a long weekend for me and a long weekend of getting to watch sports, which is amazing. I'm blessed for that. But like, there are some really great college football games on Saturday night and like some that are starting kind of late. Like there's a the CU Kansas state game, which I think is going to be a really fun game. It starts at 8.15 PM my time, 10.15 PM Eastern. So when we up late watching that and then boom, we got a London game, jags and bears on Sunday morning, this, you know, we saw the jags finally get a win last week. Trevor Lawrence looked like it looked like a serviceable quarterback, but that was against the Colts. Yeah. And the bears defense is considerably better than the Colts. We'll see how Caleb looks. I mean, this is a Jags defense flacko through for 350 on them. So I don't really have a whole lot of concern about Caleb being able to move the ball. Chicago, you could depends on what side you want. Chicago, you can get for minus one and a half at minus one fifteen on Fandell. It's one of the Jags. I didn't get that plus two. I don't have a bet on the side in this one. I would lean the bears. I just, you know, I guess that the Jags have more experience playing over there. The bears did leave earlier in the week. So it's like, I think they did their research on traveling to London and how best to handle that. Yeah. I was looking at the total and I'm not a believer in Trevor Lawrence here. So if I were to bet anything in this game, I'd probably lean toward the under 44 and a half. Yes. You know, maybe Caleb's a little, little wide eyed his first, like international game. The Jags kind of turned back into a pumpkin a little bit. I will say seeing Brian Thomas ball out last week, like that guy is such a stud. I haven't looked at, you know, there's not a lot of lines up for, there's some lines up for this game. I'm just not really seeing a whole lot. I liken them. Is there anything that you that caught your eye? Yeah, I've got a couple already in this game. I like this game a lot. The Jaguars defense is absolutely trashed. I would if this was just actually in Chicago, I'd be going crazy on this game. But like you just said, I'm a little weary about what Caleb Williams is going to do. So I do have a one unit play on over his 234 and a half passing yards. Now I like that look a lot. He's got two 300 yard passing games in his last three games. He put up 304 versus Carolina and 363 versus Indy. So I mean Jacksonville's defense isn't much better than the Indy defense. They give it the second most passing yards to the quarterback position. Like you said, Flacco went for actually 369 yards, Stroud went for 345, 201 for 338. Josh Allen had his highest total of the year with 263 because he hasn't seen me passing much. I'm sure he'd love to get into your Buffalo Bills a little bit later. That was a bit of a choke job at the end there. But no, I love this over 234. Now, I don't know which receiver to take. I would love to think that DJ Moore is going to go crazy again, but I can't trust guys like DJ Moore. Like the short, like kind of short alpha receivers, if the ball isn't put like perfectly, like he doesn't go and get it the same way, like a seedy lamb or like an AJ Brown or somebody to that extent that'll go out and get it. So instead of kind of picking and choosing whether it's Romeo Dunes or or any of these guys, I'd rather just take Caleb Williams and get him over his 234 and a half passing yards. Okay. Yeah, I don't, I don't mind that at all, you know, this Jag defense is just brutal. You don't have to twist my arm. Yeah. I got it. Other one as well. I got it. Other one as well. I'm taking I'm taking Swiftie. I'm taking him over his receiving yard prop. Now it's said it's 16 and a half. I love this. I'm shocked that it's there. He's covered this in four straight games. He's averaging 41 receiving yards a game over those four game stretch Jackson because of the second most receiving yards of the running back position and over his last two games, he's got nine catches for 119 yards. Like this was kind of like his coming out party with these last two games again. They were against terrible defenses, but so was Jacksonville. They are right there. Number two, dead second to dead last for receiving yards to that position. So yeah, give me, give me Swift over 16 and a half receiving yards. All right, let's, let's move on from here. Some really interesting ones. Buck Saints got a lot more interesting when Spencer Radler was named the starting quarterback. Derek Carr had that oblique injury Monday night. He's going to be out for a few games. So rookie Spencer Radler going to be getting in the start. That's going to be kind of a theme that we'll talk about through the show is rookies starting this week. Yeah. The line moved from bucks minus two and a half to bucks minus three and a half. The total has come down a bit. Radler at South Carolina had kind of a disappointing college career, but they didn't give him a lot of great weapons there. You know, he had Xavier Leggett last year, he, you know, helped, helped get Leggett drafted to the Panthers, I don't know if he wants to be, you know, if Leggett can be thanking him for that or not. But, you know, Radler had a lot of potential going into college and he showed some of that in the preseason. There are a lot of people who are saying that, you know, they need to seriously consider giving him the start because maybe he's better than Derek Carr and Carr, you know, he started off the season looking good in his first two games, but those were against them, but now appear to be very bad defenses in the Panthers and Cowboys. So I'm, I bet the bucks minus two and a half. I'm now, I'm now kind of interested though in the Saints at three and a half. Like, I don't know if I want to buy that back or look for a live opportunity to middle it. But I think the Saints can be like a solid offense with Radler in there. It sounds like Taysom Hill is going to be out for another game with these fractured ribs. It would be really surprising if he gave it a go. So I think that's a positive for Alvin Camara. I think that means Radler is going to throw more. Sarah ran the ball incredibly inefficiently Monday night like he was my biggest miss. I had a bunch of Alvin Camara stuff and I just got absolutely curb stomped with that. So when, when looking at the spread and the total, I kind of like the Saints getting the three and a half now and I may lean toward the under of 41 and a half at this point. It came down, you know, it was at where did it open at? Like I'm standing here. 44. Yeah. It was as recently as the when it reopened, it was 45 and a half on six. Yeah. So it's come down quite a bit. Yeah. So I don't know. Maybe it's gone too far. And he's I think the total is kind of a weird one too to try to forecast. But I do like the Saints now at three and a half. Yeah. I see for me for a middle, I need more than like, you know, just that bang number. Do you want to be like, if I can get in super live, super early, and then it's, you know, two or three points kind of in there. But obviously, you know, games land on three all the time, but to middle that there, I don't think I would do that personally. I, I, it sucks. That's why I said I was going to wait for a lot. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. How much go out there and put up a touchdown right away and I can get like a six and a half. Oh, you get more than that. Yeah. For sure. Yeah. Yeah. That's a good call. All right. I don't know what to do with this game. Like I was all pumped to get Camara over his receiving yards, but I don't want to touch it. I don't know much about this kid. He received a no much about him from college and stuff, but it sucks because it's going to be a pass for me. And then it also kind of ruins the other side too. That's kind of why they took so long to put out these lines for like this. I found today to be one of like the slowest times for, for lines to come out, just because it kind of matters on both sides. Like if New Orleans can't score, then Tampa Bay doesn't need to score kind of deal. Do you know what I mean? So it. Yeah. And it's tough to because like I want to back Bucky, but after that fumble last week, I feel like he's on a shorter leash. I don't, you know, and Rashad broke off, like Rashad white broke off one big play. Does that give them more confidence? So I think it's kind of a weird one on both sides. Yeah. Exactly. I'm literally I'm on a pass. I can't touch this game. All right. Let's go to Cardinals Packers. That looks to be a pretty fun one total on this one's actually come down a bit. It was 49 and a half. Now it's 47 and a half. The spread has been in the five, five and a half range currently you can get Cardinals plus five minus one 10, actually there's a five and a half minus one 14 on stand rule if you want to go that route or minus five on draft games for the Packers. The Cardinals, you know, they they showed a lot last week coming back against the 49ers. Part of you wonders if, you know, back to back road games off of a tough emotional loss. This is a let down spot for them. Wow, Green Bay looked really good against the Rams. I think their defense can do enough with Kyler and they're just going to keep running the piss out of the ball and you can do that against the Cardinals. So the I wouldn't be in a rush to bet the spread in either of these because not like at a key number. You know, if it would get down to let's say Packers minus four, say some Cardinals money comes in, I would be interested in taking a stab at that. But the Cardinals have been a bit of an under team lately. Like they went under against the Niners last week in that game against the Lions a few weeks ago. It went under obviously the commanders gained it not because they got boat raced in that one. But I think, you know, grabbing that under 49 and a half was good. If it goes any further out of maybe look toward the over though, because I think the Packers can hang points on the Cardinals here. Yeah, I agree with that. I hope it keeps coming down. I hope that sharp money. Hope you and your boys all keep hitting that because I'll be taking the over when I can. I rarely am taking sides in total these days, but I do like the over in this game. And you're right. Arizona has been a kind of like one game on one game off because I mean they have games in the 60s already this year. But then yeah, exactly with games against the Niners was, you know, they couldn't show up until the fourth quarter and stuff like that. But I haven't looked at any of the player props for this game. I don't really like on either side of it. I know Harrison's kind of let me down a couple of times recently. It's strange. I don't know what that offense is doing like what I know they want to run the ball a ton. But I mean, you kind of do something more with Kyler Murray than just have him, you know, throwing it 20 times in a game like you're not going to win football games like that. But yeah, I'll be taken. I'll be waiting hopefully I can see a 46 and a half or even a 47 flat and I'll be going over there. All right, let's and then prop I haven't seen really many prop lines up for that game either. I know I like the passing yards for both of them, but I haven't really touched it. I haven't looked at any of them. Yeah, they've they've posted a few. I'm not really seeing much value on either side there. Like I like Tucker craft, but his line his receiving line took another step up after his big game on Sunday. We don't know what's going on with Romeo Dobbs if he's going to be playing how that's going to impact the other guys. So I think for now that game is just a pass for me. Another game that's probably a pass is going to be Colts and Titans. We saw some big line movement on this one when I was taking notes the other day or just actually this morning, it was Titans plus one and now it's moved out to Titans minus two and a half. It looks like Anthony Richardson probably going to play. He's going to be without Michael Pittman. This defense still is just, I mean, they made Joe or they made Trevor Lawrence look like a legit quarterback. So I don't think there's a whole lot of value left in the number though, like if I got in the Titans plus want to be feeling good, but I don't want to bet will love will Levis to have to cover by a field goal or more like the guy just isn't it. I've been looking at Tony Pollard's props actually. He's been kind of coming on. Yeah, he's becoming kind of coming on. I know you're a you're a Tony Pollard truther, but I like Levis checks down a ton like the two leading receivers on the Tennessee Titans are Pollard and Spears. Are there two running backs like he checks it down a ton. And I know his receiving yard prop is set at 16 and a half. So I was looking at that and also his combo prop is at 83 and a half. I kind of like that. I think I might go there. The Colts give up the third most rushing yards to the running back position and the fifth most receiving yards. So you're kind of getting a bit of both. Now it's set at 83 and a half for his combo prop and he's covered that in three of his last four games averaging over a hundred yards a game for those three winners. So I kind of like that and even with the done they had a comeback game against Green Bay with Green Bay had a huge lead against him when Levis through his pick six and you know had his hands on his head and the rest of it. And so yeah, they kind of, you know, didn't really use him in the running game whatsoever. But if this could be a competitive game, which the you know, the spread in total kind of kind of make it look like it's going to be that they're going to be using Pollard a lot. So yeah, over 83 and a half, I think I'm going to take a shot at that one. Okay. Yeah. I mean, Pollard has been looking looking great is they just had the buy is Spears. I know he got kind of banged up. Is he good to go in this one? I think I think he was limited. I think he was limited today if I saw correctly, but I don't even know if it matters. I mean, most of those games are with Spears anyway. I mean, they kind of go one, two with them. I know Spears is kind of more of the pass catching back, which is kind of weird because that was kind of Pollard's role in Dallas, but he can do it all. He's a three down back, but, but yeah, 83 and a half. I like that man. He's over three out of his last four games have gone well over that. So give me 83 and a half. All right. Let's go to your Eagles and we can probably do this one pretty quickly. Eagles are nine and a half point favorites at home against the Browns. I don't even know like the Browns are they look like they've given up. Deshawn looks like he's absolutely done like he should not be in a roster. She'd probably be in jail. The Eagles are coming off the by in a get right spot. You know, they went into the by sad getting beat by the Bucks after that, you know, great game against the Saints. They should be getting AJ Brown and Devonta Smith back. Lane Johnson, I believe will be back for this one as well. I mean, if ever there was a spot to just run the score up, this would probably be it. You know, the Browns defense looked like they bought like everything from that Deshawn Washington has touched on this team has turned the ship and so the defense looks like they don't even care anymore because they know they're not going to get any help to win the game. So they've given up. I mean, they got shredded on the road in Washington last week. So I can't bet it, I mean, maybe just bet the Eagles and you get them under 10 points and this is a two, three touchdown win where the wheels just completely fall off for the Browns. Like this is not a spot where like, you know, oh, I'm going to buy like you got to buy low in the market. We don't know how low it could go for the Browns like the best thing for them would be if they named James the starter, but I don't think they're going to do that because of how much money they have locked up into Sean and it's just an absolute disaster. Yeah, that's, I mean, honestly, I'm a stay away from this one. I don't know who the Philadelphia Eagles are. I mean, obviously, you know, they haven't had any players for the last couple of weeks. So obviously that makes a huge difference. It kind of, you know, brought Jalen hurts people back down to earth because like without elite weapons, he's not elite and you can't run the ball around if nobody cares to cover your terrible receivers, right? So, I mean, he, I mean, it was just been a mess for Philly, but on the other side, I mean, Cleveland is an absolute joke right now. I mean, to Sean Watson, like walking off the field when they were trying to go for it on fourth down, he's just like, yeah, I'm not going for it. It's like, what are you talking about, buddy, get your ass on the field? Like, I don't know if you saw that moment, but like, you know, yeah, you want to call a timeout and then you just walked off, like, no, take the field goal. Do whatever you got to do. I'm out. Like what? I mean, if anything, I kind of like a Mari Cooper over 48 and a half receiving yards. I mean, kind of looking at that, the Eagles give up the six-month yards to the wider secret position, but I mean, it would be nice if at halftime they put in James Winston and then I mean, that could be like 95 and a half and I'd take the over. Philly's secondary is terrible and just Sean Watson just can't get him the ball. But I mean, a lot of that's their offensive line as well. I mean, just Sean Watson doesn't look good, but I mean, nobody's helping him either, right? I mean, the whole team just looks like a joke right now, but I can't, I mean, 10 points. I can't back any team going 10 points. I don't care if it's Cleveland or not. Yeah. I mean, you have just the injury report for the Browns is crazy. You know, I don't care. Probably just a veteran rest day, but him being on there, you know, because of his Achilles is not comforting. I mean, they still, we still have question marks, like you said, on the offensive line. It's just an absolute mess. It's so bad. So maybe you look at, like, you know, if you want to get some action on this game and Eagle's team total, we look at the over there, you know, I still think you can probably bet the Eagles at nine and a half. I'm not going to do it. Well, I know hard to just seems like this just seems like a runaway game. Let's go to another rookie QB. And this is one that, you know, I didn't think was that interesting before, but Drake may getting the start for the Patriots intrigues me a little bit. I actually bet the Patriots plus seven, I will, I, if it goes to seven and a half, I don't think it's going to go to seven and a half. But the, it might is Texan, this Texan's team. Now, now it's going to be without Nico. I don't, I don't like their, their offense has been struggling in a big way. They've been getting behind the chain, like they've been getting behind on first and second down, they have one of the worst early down success rates in the league. I think only that, I heard today that they're, or I saw today that their success rate on early downs is 31st in the league, like a drought has been bailing them out on third downs. And if he's going to be without his top guy, that is going to be a problem. You know, Tank Dell and Cifondigs are good and all, but, you know, this is a team coming off of a close fog game against the Bills going against a rookie quarterback who, you know, he's going to be better than Jacobi Brissette. And we've seen, you know, Ramondre look good last week, Gibson can catch balls out of the backfield. Hunter Henry still has a little bit of juice there. Jalen Polk maybe comes on with the new quarterback, like, I could see the Patriots getting up for this one. And so at seven, I really liked it. And if it goes seven and a half, I'm going to bet it again, because I think that the Patriots are live to win this game outright, but I definitely feel good about them covering the seven. I'm not going to bet them to win the game. Yeah. But I like to become a seven. Yeah, as soon as I saw all this news, I was like, all right, this is another weird one for me. I'm going to stay away from this game. I don't like the reason they didn't really want to put in the rookie for a new England is because they're having offensive line trouble as well, right? Jacobi Brissette can't stay on his feet. He's getting knocked around all over the place. And Houston does have a good front four, but go on. He's not very like, may's at least mobile, true, true, they can, they can get him out and bootlegs, get him on the move. And so I, you know, yeah, the offensive line is bad. I'm hoping that he can mask a little bit of that with his mobility. I'm surprised that, you know, old man mixing has been such a, you know, a missing piece for them. Like Cam Acres is, you know, like you said, with him getting behind the chains, like, you know, when it's second and nine and third and seven every time, like, and then you got to go find Nico for a bomb every time, like it, that's not good. I didn't think, you know, mix and I have a couple of, a couple of spots with mixing on my fantasy teams, but I was shocked for him to like come out of the gates that strong. He's actually looked pretty decent. So I don't know what's going on. He was supposed to be like a game time decision two games ago. And now it's, he's like, keeps not showing and not practicing. He's been kind of all over the map. So I'd like to see him come back, but for now I'm a stay away from this game. Yeah. And I mean, it wasn't even Acres fall last week. They were given Dari Ogumbolale, like all the early down work. And he was, you know, he averaged like two yards to carry. Like Acres actually ran okay, but they kept giving the ball to the other guy who didn't look any better. So I don't know. We're spot there. That's a beautiful pronunciation for that one. I was looking for him all fucking day trying to get his receiving yards. And I couldn't like they didn't post any. And I'm like, I knew he was going there. I know he's the past catching back Buffalo gives up the most receiving yards to the running back position. And I knew it would be like, you know, it's something low, like 12 and a half or something like that. Because he's not really the starter. And oh, man, they never posted it those cowards. I was going to smash it and yeah, it's like 40 or something like that. But cowards. Yeah. It's, you know, I don't mind the over on Drake may pass the yards. I'm just going to say it's a line. I'm 50 or something 150 and a half. Yeah. I saw that. I was like, Oh, my God. I mean, he's going to throw that all the hunter Henry, right? He's going to be scared across the middle. Where's my big fat white guy and I'm going to chuck it in him. Yeah. I mean, absolutely, absolutely wild there. All right. Let's keep it moving. Taking, you know, we got, we got a good rhythm going here. Let's go. Commander's Raven. This is going to be another fun one. Yeah. There are six and a half point favorites at home total 52 and a half. Man, Harbaugh is notoriously like very good against rookie quarterbacks. We used to talk about bell check being that way. Harbaugh is also good against rookie QBs. I think Jaden is great. He's just like for a rookie, just so poised and he can do a lot here. I really, I really want to be all over the commanders if it was at seven, seven and a half. That'd be incredible. The six and a half is tight. I do kind of like the under though, and I know that you're not an unders guy, but it's at 51 and a half right now being, you know, getting under that key number, you know, getting to 51. I still like it. I think the Ravens defense is going to bounce back after a terrible game against the Bengals. And, you know, the commanders going on the road, that's going to be a bit challenging. You know, my favorite bet in this game is the under 51 and a half. And if you think that Jaden is that guy, I don't mind the commanders plus six and a half either. Yeah, I was shocked that it was that high side of the truth. I mean, you know, Baltimore hasn't really been, you know, I mean, they're kind of having games on and off. It was nice that they came back that way. I really like Jane Daniels over his passing yards in this one. I wonder if you could look it up on your site to see what kind of value you have on it, but it said at 226 and a half. He's covered this in three straight, he's gone four in one of the overruns passing yards so far. And Baltimore is an absolute pass funnel. They are dead last in passing yards to the quarterback position and first in allowing the least amount of rushing yards to the running back position. So like if there was ever an analytics play to just let Jaden Daniels throw it all over the field, do that. I mean, they just let, like you said, Burl go for 392 yards, Dax gone for 379 yards versus them. And we're looking for 226 and a half. Yeah, give me, give me Jaden Daniels over 226 and a half. I already locked that one in. You can still get 224 and a half on fan. Oh, oh, past your moment. All right. Well, there you go. I mean, it's 229 and a half on bed MGM. So make sure to shop around like there are, you know, that five yards can be a big, big difference there. A hundred percent. I don't have any prop plays in this one. It's just that, that under and, uh, you know, the commanders get in the six and a half. The, you know, Ravens are probably a good teaser piece, being able to tease them down to, you know, just needing to win the game outright, uh, some other good teaser pieces this week, but like Washington's live, I'm scared of that. I think they're live like more so than New England, uh, over the Texans, like, you know, you think? No, I like the commanders. If it may be a little bit of the sell high right now, like no rookie goes unscathed against like elite competition, like we talked about how the Browns have basically given up and like they had that great game against the Bengals that they won outright. Uh, we've seen that the Bengals, a bit of a mess. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. The, the command, you know, Jaden, like I said, he looks great, but he has done it against some questionable competition lately, 100% yep, I don't, I don't know if I could go to where like, you know, there any, listen, anything can happen to give up the ball. Like, anything can win on any given ball, two more might be questionable competition. This defense has not looked like the Baltimore defense. Like I've dropped them in all of my fantasy leagues. They have not been good. I mean, they, they were good against the bills and against the Cowboys, that was all garbage time. Like it's true. Yeah. I think you got to kind of throw some of that away. So I mean, yeah, it's, it's a tough one. I think it's going to be, it's going to be a game that is like a lot more fun to watch just for the hell of it than it is to like have, I have money on one of the sides. Because the thing, either way, very easily. I did do a stack of like Jaden Daniels, Alts with Terry McClure and Alts. I did kind of like that. I feel like, you know, Terry can get under one. And I mean, when it's, you know, 70 yards, I mean, some of those are like, you know, that's a yardage that he's getting, I mean, he's, you know, he's finding him in the corner. But again, he's kind of like that DJ Moore where it's like, if that ball is not perfect on the money, I mean, don't get me wrong. He's pulling down some crazy catches, but I don't like those kind of guys. But just to have a little, you know, pizza bed or a little small bed on a Jaden Daniels with a scary Terry stack of like, you know, 275 and 80, something like that. I feel like that would pay out pretty decent and it has a good shot of actually coming in. Okay. Yeah. I like it. I like it. Just move to, we can go through this one kind of quickly, but again, that's giving me like, I don't understand the line on this one. And that's the Chargers and Broncos. Broncos are three point dogs at home against the Chargers. I know the Chargers are coming off a buy. And so they're probably getting a little bit healthier. Herbert limited in practice, he's going to obviously give it a go. He's going to play Joe Alt also limited in practice with his knee issue. You know, injury report or no practice report today on race on Slater. So not sure if he's going to, you know, he's going to be out there. But if either one of those is gone, that's a big hit for their offensive line. Joey Bosa, still a DNP with his hip injury, like they have a lot of people on the injury report. Meanwhile, this Broncos defense is for real men, like they gave up 10 points early to the Raiders and then they just said they just hunkered down and didn't let us score again after that. They got Gardner Minshew bench, who I mean, listen, Herbert's way better than Minshew, but nonetheless at like, if this was in LA, I'd get it. But the Broncos being three and two at home and getting three points, I've already bet the Broncos here plus the three. You can still find it minus one 50, actually, yeah, minus one 15 on draft Kings. It's two and a half on a lot of the other books, but I just don't get it, man. Like, can you, what's your thoughts on this game? The total's like 35 and a half, and I want to touch that, but I just, the Broncos have looked a lot better. They're running the ball. Well, Nick is, he's not like winning the game. So we're not losing him for him either. Like he's not, you know, turning the ball over a bunch or anything. So like, where are you at in this game effect anywhere? I, I fell asleep when you said chargers and then I definitely fell asleep when you said Broncos. I couldn't care less about this game. I know you're a rotto boy. So you're, you got your, I don't, no, no, no, I don't give a shit about the Broncos. I'm not, I live here, but I'm not a Broncos fan. But I thought the number and it just made no sense. You have your finger on the pulse of them though, right? Like you, you, you hear a lot of news and you get a lot of stuff, but I mean, I've never heard of somebody having so many Denver bets over the last four or five weeks that we've been chatting. You've got, you know, Denver making the playoffs and all sorts of crazy stuff. Don't get me wrong. That one. Don't get, I, I called it a plus seven ninety and now it's down to like plus one sixty. So I know, man. Don't get me wrong. You've got your finger on the pulse of Denver. I just, I don't have the balls to touch a fucking chargers Broncos game. Like I said, I'm an over his guy. I don't see it over anywhere in this game. Yeah. I mean, I don't know what you've been crushing these Broncos bets, man. We, I think we had one in like week two or something like that when I was like, Oh, no, it's sure enough Denver covered. And I was like, Okay, this man knows his Bronx. They got the cover last week too. So I think, and then next week they go to, they go to the same. So we'll see how Radler looks, but listen, I think they could win this one out. Maybe they go to five. If they're like five. They could. Then my, my playoff that would look amazing. It would. Watch something. They're going to be three and four here in a couple of weeks. All right. Another game that we can move through quickly, Steelers and Raiders. We don't know who's starting for the Steelers. We do know that, you know, Connell is starting for the Raiders. This is another game that just screams under and knowing you, I'm guessing that means you don't have any interest in this one either. D-d-d-d-d. Wow. Yeah. Nope. Hard pass. I'm going to see the total of just like, you got to be kidding me. I'm like, where am I going to find anything in this? Don't get me wrong. I scoured through it a little bit, but yeah, no, I mean, really is Russell Wilson Pittsburgh. You think this is the guy that's going to lead you? He was fucking terrible for years, like ever since he left Seattle, it was all about the receivers that he had in Seattle and DK and lock it. He could throw that moon bowl to lock it. There isn't another lock it out there that can catch those kind of weird balls that he throws. With that receiving core that they have in Pittsburgh, he is just going to get crunched. I don't like five foot nothing quarterbacks. This guy, I don't know. There's no run left in his legs. I don't know why they would go past fields. Yeah, he had a tough game and they just lost to the boys, but I mean, the Cowboys and Steelers are pretty big rivalry. That was a tough game. It came down to the wire against a, you know, potentially good decent demon Dallas. Yeah, come on. And really Russell Wilson, how was that even an option? I think they'll start fields, but he's probably going to be on a pretty short leash here. Yeah. Russ is just now coming back to practice after that cap issue that he's probably another week away. I'm guessing he'll dress for this game and the fields look really bad. And they still have a chance to win it, though they may put Russ in, but I think if they go out there and they lose this game, then it's going to be, you know, time for Russ to ride. For sure. I think he'll have two weeks before they yank him because it's going to go horribly wrong with Russ that quarterback. All right, let's go to where to next, uh, let's just finish off with like, let's get the other crap. You went out of the way. Falcon's Panthers total on this one's like 47, 46 and a half, 47, depending on where you're looking and what you like. The spread is six, six and a half. The Panthers, you know, they had a good game with Andy Dalton against the Raiders a few weeks back when he made his first start. The wheels have fallen off since, you know, the not losing and not covering against the Bengals and then getting absolutely, you know, destroyed against the Bears last week. Meanwhile, the Falcons coming off of that, uh, that big comeback against the Bucks. They're getting 500 yards out of, uh, fucking wants to see the wild game. I don't have any interest in the side in this one. Um, if it was Falcons, minus five and a half, maybe I certainly don't like it at six and a half. Six is whatever. I definitely don't want to bet the Panthers, uh, they just look beaten down and disheveled and this, this to me is another game that I'm just passing for now. Yeah, I'm a pass as well and it sucks because, uh, the Panthers have a dog shit run defense like their defense is terrible, but I don't know who to get behind. Like how do you get behind? John Robinson, he hasn't looked like himself, Tyler Algier, I don't know what to do with this guy either. They love him and then they hate him. So I mean, I was looking at his, uh, Russian yard prop at 37 and a half for a Tyler Algier. I like that a little bit better than I do, um, then Bijon's at 69 or whatever it is coming up to. I don't love that. That's way too high for him. He hasn't shown he can do any of that yet. So yeah, this will be a pass for me. All right, let's go to a much more fun game and that is going to be the Cowboys and Lions. We got Dallas as three point dogs at home total on this one, 52 and a half. The last time I saw, uh, you know, we had the game last year that the Lions lost that cost them home field where, uh, I believe it was Taylor Decker who said he reported, but the ref said he didn't report and then Campbell went for it on 4th down again from any way. We're just ridiculous. Yeah. That was dumb. So rematch of that one. You have the Cowboys trying to continue to recover after a rough start to the season. You know, that game against the Saints where they got destroyed. The game they lost at home to the Ravens. And now they got the Lions coming in when they was still three and a half. I would have met the Cowboys. Now it's three. I kind of want to see it looks like the juice is kind of moving toward maybe this game going to two and a half. And you know, with how, how many Cowboys fans are out there, I would actually know, it looks like the juice is pointing towards three. The other way. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Keep an eye on that. If you have a side you like, but there's got to be some prop value here. One off the bat for me is going to be Dax over on passing yards. Yeah. I mean, he's been flinging it around out there. Jalen Tolbert looks, you know, Brandon Cokes, hope he's doing okay after that knee infection everything. That's really, really. Yeah. Yeah. For sure. But Jalen Tolbert looked great last week. And I think he can step in with Ferguson, obviously, CD lamb. Meanwhile, the Detroit secondary has been pretty beat up. I mean, we saw what Geno and the Seahawks did to them in Detroit. Now they're going down and playing in Dallas. They, you know, they have all these issues, uh, manual, moseley, he's, you know, he's still going to be out. He's still on IR, uh, few other guys I'm blanking on who else it was. But either way, even if the secondary were fairly healthy, you know, gonna, gonna put up the yards against the lions here. It's been weird how much they, you know, the lions just, they want to run the ball this year. And I get why, like they have two very good running backs in Montgomery and Gibbs. They have the best offensive line in the league. My hope is that Dallas gets out to a quick start and Jared Goff has to throw the ball. Cause I think that, you know, I don't see any value on his passing total right now. It's just based on how the lions have been this year, but for my Jared Goff MVP bet, I need him to go out there and fling it this week to put up some fucking yards. Yeah. That's a good goal. I, I got a ton that I've been waiting, chomping at the bit. These just came out like a couple hours ago. So I literally have, yeah. So I didn't get to like, like fully be able to, to dive into the research, but I already knew what I wanted to do. So I just hammered them as soon as I could. So Dak over his two 76 and a half. What do you see? You got a best number somewhere? Uh, two 76 and a half is still the best number that, uh, actually, no, it just moved to two 78 and a half. Oh, there you go. So if you want to get it before it gets to two 80, probably need to act now. Yeah. Now's your chance. Uh, I took segy lamb at 80 and a half over his receiving yard total. Um, if in that same game, he went 13 catches for two. 27 last year, 13 for two 27. Yeah. Exactly. So I love him over his 80 and a half. Like you said, on Tolbert, that's set at 45 and a half. I love that number as well. He led a Dallas in targets last week with 10 targets with seven for 87 with no cooks in there. He's looking for Tolbert a lot. So 45 and a half, I think is an absolute discount. Uh, and then on the other side, I, I keep hammering this guy Montgomery over his receiving yard props is a fucking gift. I love these. Now he's actually got more yards, uh, more catchy yards than, uh, jimmy or Gibbs. And they keep obviously jimmy or Gibbs is like they're passing downs back, but I've said this on podcast before Detroit's different. They don't, they kind of just use each one of them in full series. They don't bring in the next guy unless somebody kind of waves their hand or gets rocked or, you know, has a big long run or something like that, but they keep them in like Montgomery starts the game for the first series. They don't pull him out unless he's hurt or he goes for a super long run, but he'll play like like six, seven, eight, uh, plays in a row. And then it's Gibbs's turn. So I've been kind of live betting this as well because I don't know if the books, their algorithm actually knows how this shit works, but I've seen it happen every single game. Like Montgomery starts the game no matter what. I've seen the coach even talk about it. So like, yeah, like Montgomery is the powerback, but like because they go series for series, he's covered this in three straight games. He's got eight catches for 92 yards with 30 average and 30 a game. Love it. Dadless gives up the sixth most receiving yards in the running back position. Now like as much as Gibbs is like the past catching back, he hasn't cut a pass in two games. It's been all Montgomery. So yeah, to get over eight and a half receiving yards, I absolutely love this play. It's like freaky fucking Friday, man. Like Gibbs is now the goal line back. Right? Exactly. What is going, which I mean, hey, they're catching people off guard and they're winning games. So go for it. I'm just, I'm very, and this is why it's been, you know, I've had a rough start to the season. Partly why I've had, I'm, I've only myself to blame, but like trying to project some of these workloads and how these, you know, backs are going to be used. It's like, if I had gone back and I hadn't bet a single running back related prop all season, I would be profitable on the year, but I am. So that's been a big miss on my part, you know, looking to write the ship, but here we are. Let's go and hit a couple that, you know, we had two prime time games to finish with. Bangles and giants is going to be the first one on Sunday night in New York. Giants are, this is another game where like, I don't know if I agree with the line here. The giants being three and a half point dogs. The juice is starting to move towards going to come down to three. I think that will be the case. The giants like their defense did enough against the Seahawks last week to get the win, obviously. And this bangles team, they gave it, you know, they're coming off of a brutal home, you know, divisional game against the Ravens where they had their hearts ripped out that tailor. I mean, I don't think Brian Dable is a great coach, but based on what the way that Taylor handled that game last week, I think Dable is better than him. So it makes me want to take the giant. It's concerning that Malik neighbors is still in the concussion protocol missing last week as well. I've seen some big hits, but like he just kind of like landed on his head a little bit. Like I know, obviously, you know, it's, it's a brain injury. So you can't really, you know, say that it should affect guys different ways, but like it looked pretty light. Like I was shocked that, you know, you got his bell rug, not bad, like, yeah, he kind of fell in his head, but you get hit by anyone who was just like the momentum of him falling over like a tree. And it was just like, really? That's, that's a three game concussion for you. So yeah, the fact that, yeah, I saw you was just on the sidelines for today, right? He wasn't even practicing. Yeah. Yeah. I don't know. I'm keeping. And there's some other injuries too. Like linebacker came on Thibodeau. He had wrist surgery. He's probably going to be out this week. Brian Burns is questionable with a groin injury. I don't think the Singletary injury matters like Tyrone Tracy last week. Yeah, he did. He's got more juice anyways. He's probably the better play there. You know, Slaton, he looked all right, but I need to see what happens more with these injuries before I take a side in this one. Like if I knew that neighbors came back and Burns was going to play, then I would, I would hit the Giants at three and a half, but I'm just not going to make a move on the side. And there's really not much else, like not much in props that, you know, line wise or value wise up in this one yet. No, I haven't dropped anything on this one yet. Again, with the injuries, I need to know who's playing before I start dropping. I don't want to speculate. And then, you know, you get screwed when you're on the wrong side of it. So I actually don't mind Tracy if Singletary is out knowing that they're going to have to run a little bit just to try and keep a burrow off the field, but I haven't touched anything yet. Yeah, I mean, and this Bengals team, like maybe they just have kind of given up a little bit, like just on defense. I mean, they're trying on offense will say I'm going to be keeping an eye on Chase Brown props just because with Moss, once again, not being it, he would be shocked if Zach Moss played this week. You know, he went out last week with a foot injury, didn't practice today. And Chase Brown has looked good. He's like, got way more juice. And he's explosive. Yeah, 100%. Yeah. Keeping an eye on his rushing and receiving props, because he can do both come out of the backfield and he's going to be the lead back if Zach Moss is if he's out, and even if Zach Moss does happen to play, that's probably better because the lines will be lower and I'll still. Yeah. And you'll be limited anyway. Yeah. His receiving yard prop, especially since he gives up the fourth most receiving yards to the running back position. So heads up. If you're looking for that. I like, I was looking at that one actually that that did cross my eye was knowing that Zach Moss got rolled up on heart and they're saying, Oh, he's going to be okay. And it's like, how okay? I mean, it looked kind of nasty. So yeah, I've been looking at the receiving yard props for sure. All right. Let's go to the last game of the week. You know, this is back to back games that met life to end week six with the bills and jets playing there on Monday night. The rematch of week one 2023 where Aaron Rogers went down on the fifth play of the season. The bills coming off of an awful looking game against the Texans. I mean, Josh looked terrible. You know, the fact that like the way that they handled things at the end, it was just bad. So maybe this is a bounce back spot. Meanwhile, you have the jets who elected not to take their buy a week after London. That is a bit surprising. The teams in that spot do not cover the spread at a very high rate. You know, so that is, that's one way to look at it is, you know, the bills minus two and a half on the road. The way they looked last week, I was hoping this game would be closer to a pick them. But I mean, you have, you know, what are the jets going to look like firing their head coach yesterday, this interim coach, the team looks lost on offense. They can't run the ball, Rogers, you know, heard his ankle after already having a knee issue. The bill's defense can at least rush the passer, like is he going to have any mobility? The jets offensive line is not as advertised. So when this, you know, I wish I would have got the over or the under when it opened at 42 and a half down to 41 now, it's not a play for me at this point. I'll look for some props later in the weekend, but you know, this is going to be, this could be a pretty ugly game. Yeah, it really is. I mean, I feel bad for Josh Allen. I mean, he had to nine completions. Is that what I saw? Nine completions? Like that is nine, nine for 30. Yeah. Wow. Oh, that is ugly business. And then on the other side, like Garrett Wilson finally had a game, but it took him 22 targets to get there. Like he's still not on the same page with like this was a get right spot. Like if they couldn't do it against Minnesota, would that secondary not giving up so many yards as they do? I was shocked to not see that go anywhere. I will be kind of looking at maybe Bruce Hall over his receiving yard prop. They haven't dropped it yet, but I know Buffalo gives up the most receiving yards to the running back position. And even who's the young monster, Derek, any junior? Uh, Oh God, on on the gym right now, yeah. They're a good Rejuder. Yeah, that monster, he can catch balls too. So I know his number will be pretty small as well. So I might do something like that to try and find, uh, because I know Buffalo was lying back in course, been kind of rough. They can't really cover the running backs of the backfield and they, they, they line up Brice Hall all over the place, which is, which is good for that kind of prop. So I might be looking at the running backs for their receiving yard props, but they haven't dropped anything yet. There's only like two receiver props out so far. Yeah. Keep an eye out on that. Sure, Alex will drop another, you know, maybe another little short podcast or something, but this was, this was fun. As always, uh, appreciate you letting me come on and shoot this shit with you. Uh, and good luck in all of your week six bets. Yeah. Thank you, sir. Well, up in Canada, we got Thanksgiving weekend. All right. This is our Thanksgiving. Oh, yeah. Happy Thanksgiving up there. Thank you, sir. So yeah, we're getting together with the fam and, uh, yeah, we'll have a red zone on everywhere. So yeah, she'll be good times. Love it. Awesome, man. Well, hey, you guys have a great weekend, uh, and I can't wait to do this with you again next week. All right, brother. Later, buddy. Later. Do it. All right. All right. Bye.