Peter speaks with CNBC anchor Manisha Gupta
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Peter speaks with CNBC anchor Manisha Gupta Risk Warning: Our services involve a significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. *T&Cs apply.Please consider our Risk Disclosure: https://www.xm.com/goto/risk/enRisk warning is correct at the time of publication and may change. Please check our Risk Disclosure for an up to date risk warningReceive your daily market and forex news analysis directly from experienced forex and market news analysts! Tune in here to stay upd...
- Broadcast on:
- 04 Oct 2024
- Audio Format:
- other
Welcome back, Yournigas, on the show now, is Peter McQuar. He's CEO at Exima Australia, Peter Hai, and it's been crazy since the month of October started with what's happening between Iran and Israel and the way the crude oil prices have reacted. Almost 8-9% up in this week itself. Now the street is waiting for some kind of retaliation, perhaps coming in from Israel on Iran. How are you looking at the markets as we get into the weekend? Would you hold long positions? What are you anticipating? Well, good afternoon, Mynigas. I think a couple of things. First off, it's surprised everyone in the sense how quickly this has ratcheted up. We're up 8% this week, 5% big move yesterday. And the overall theme is, how would you be short? So I think you'd have to stack positions at the moment if you're a trader, that is. You've probably been enjoying the last couple of bucks as far as movement. There could be a few more dollars. We've got New York open in a few hours, time six or seven hours. And I feel as though that that will probably capture a few more, maybe another $1.52 higher for WTI. We'll just see what happens. And then what happens at naturally over the weekend, if there was to be any retaliatory action from Israel. Peter, if there is a retaliation from Israel on Iran oil facilities, what kind of a premium would we see on markets then? Well, Mynigas, you've got 70 different choke points. First off, how severe was it? City group are saying one and a half million barrels a day and be stripped out of the market immediately. If it was a severe one, if it was just mighty, you'd be looking to 300 to 450,000 barrels. So there's the first part. So that impacts naturally supply. Then if you got 35% of the globe's crew traveling through the Persian Gulf, they would naturally have some major issues there. So that's going to impact supply. And then that would cripple demand. So, Manisha, if this was to ratchet up and ratchet up heavily, you could throw $20, $30 on it all more, that because it's a war premium and it just depends on how severe this is. Well, absolutely. Peter, let's take a step back. And when we did see Russia, Ukraine conflict begin, we did see crude prices go all the way to 120. But in the same year, the closing came into round in 80s and 90s. I get your point. These are war premiums. And we could see that kind of an impact coming for the prices. But given the fact, you also have the US presidential elections just a month away. How would the US look at the crude prices moving like that? Well, Manisha, it didn't actually impact inflation. There's something that, you know, I don't think the American voters naturally want to see. And what Biden has come out, President Biden said he may go to the defence of his role. And this is going to be very interesting from a geopolitical standpoint, because you've got to run allies are going to be Russia and China, and how that impacts US. So that's not a good sign at all. What impact did it have naturally to energy markets, gold, and of course, to equity markets and US dollar leading into an election. So this could be a very, very dynamic, you know, next month as this plays out. This is very unusual. It's hard to speculate on how far this could ratchet up. Oh, well, yes. So Peter, would you say that a long term view at on crude at this point in time cannot be taken? Would you also advise investors not to keep positions open as we head into this weekend? I mean, how should you treat this? Well, I think you're going to be very mindful, Manisha, because you know, you could say whip soaring. And, you know, if you're stacking big positions, be very mindful of that, because that's from a, you know, risk management perspective, you've got to know what your risk tolerance is. So there's the first part, and whip soaring won't be unusual. Though markets can gap, I make them gap up six or eight bucks. If you get a strike or something happens over the weekend, then all of a sudden you get that, you know, Monday morning, and it's just, you know, absolute off to the races. So yeah, be very careful from stacking positions, be prudent. And there's always next week because you've seen big moves this week. I'm not going to say you won't say again big moves next week.